Climate change: Who will lead?

The Elders in conversation with young people

Jimmy Carter and Hina Jilani

Moderated by Laurence Tubiana
#ScPoElders
@TheElders | @SciencesPo
http://www.cop21makeitwork.com/
 Révolution énergétique chinoise et actions contre le
changement climatique

Jiankun He
Ancien Vice-Président de l’Université de Tsinghua
Directeur de l’Institut 3E, Vice-Président
du Comité national chinois sur le changement climatique

Laurence Tubiana
Ambassadrice chargée des négociations sur le changement climatique, Représentante spéciale pour
la conférence Paris Climat 2015, Directrice de la Chaire Développement durable de Sciences Po

Introduction : Frédéric Mion, Directeur de Sciences Po

Modérateur : Richard Balme, Professeur à Sciences Po et à l‘Université de Tsinghua
Modération : Richard Balme, XXXX
 法政学院

中国CO2减排目标与实施对策
China’s CO2 Emission Mitigation Target
and Implementation Strategy
Tsinghua University
He Jiankun
2015-03-05
1. APEC会议期间中美发表《气候变化联合声明》，中国确立的2020年后减排目标，是
统筹国内能源/环境/经济协调发展与全球应对气候变化的战略选择(1)
Under the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, China set its post-2020
mitigation target, based on coordinating domestic Energy /Environment /Economy with
global climate change
 联合声明提出：气候变化是“人类面临的最大威胁”，应对气候变化可以带来推动创新、提高经济增长等广泛效益，
将增强国家安全和国际安全。
The Joint Announcement acknowledges that climate change is ‘one of the greatest threats facing humanity’,
and addressing climate change will drive innovation, strengthen economic growth, and will also strengthen
national and international security.

• 中国计划2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值且努力早日达峰；2030年左右非化石能源
占一次能源消费比重提高到20%左右。
China intends to achieve the CO2 emissions peak around 2030 and to
make best effort to peak earlier, and intends to increase the share of non-
fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030.
• 该目标是一个积极紧迫和有力度的目标，是一个付出艰苦努力可以实现的目标。
This target is pressing and ambitious, and can only be accomplished
through extraordinary efforts.
1. APEC会议期间中美发表《气候变化联合声明》，中国确立的2020年后减排目标，是
统筹国内能源/环境/经济协调发展与全球应对气候变化的战略选择(2)
Under the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, China set its post-2020
mitigation target, based on coordinating domestic Energy /Environment /Economy with
global climate change
 能源消费的CO2排放是中国GHG排放及增长的主要来源。中国CO2排放占全部GHG排放的80%，其中工业过程的CO2大
体与森林增汇相抵销。
CO2 emissions from energy consumption is the primary source of China’s GHG and its growth, accounting for
80% in total GHG emissions. CO2 emissions from industrial process are equal to the carbon uptake by forest
growth.
 中国经济社会快速发展不仅使CO2排放呈加快增长趋势，也带来国内资源紧缺和环境污染的压力。推动能源生产和消费
革命，是实现应对气候变化和可持续发展“双赢”的根本途径。
China’s rapid economic and social development accelerate CO2 emissions, and deteriorate resource shortage
and environmental pollution. Promoting energy production and consumption revolution is the basic solution to
achieve win-win between addressing climate change and sustainable development.
 确立积极的减排目标，有利于形成促进经济发展方式向绿色低碳转型的“倒逼”
机制，促进国内可持续发展。
Establishing proactive mitigation target forces transformation of economic
development model to green and low-carbon, and also improve domestic
sustainable development.
2. 实现全球控制温升不超过2℃目标，世界各国都必须加大减排努力，推动能源体系变
革
To control the global temperature increase within 2 ℃, all countries
must elevate efforts to reduce emissions and to reform energy systems

• 实现控制温升2℃目标，2030年排放需与2010年持平到减排40%，2050年减排40-70%，到本世纪末实现近
零排放。而按当前排放继续上升趋势，2030年仍将增加约30%，到2100年温升将达3.7-4.8℃。
To achieve the 2℃ target: emission reduction by 0~40% by 2030, 40~70% by 2050 compared with
2010 level, near-zero emission by the end of this century. The current emission trend would
increase approximately 30% in 2030, and the temperature could rise by 3.7~ 4.8℃ by 2100.

 应对气候变化核心是减少化石能源消费的CO2排放，发展低碳经济
成为协调经济社会发展与保护全球气候的必由之路，从而推动了世
界范围内能源体系的变革。
The focus of climate change mitigation is to reduce the CO2
emission from fossil fuel consumption, and low carbon
economy is an essential strategy to ensure global climate
security, and to promote global energy system revolution.
3. 中国国内进入经济发展向绿色、低碳转型的新时期，粗放扩张的高碳发展方式已难以
为继(1)
China’s economic growth is under a green and low carbon transition.
Extensive high carbon growth is unsustainable
• 快速增长的化石能源生产和消费是造成当前“资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化”严峻形势的首要原因。
Rapid growth in production and consumption of fossil fuels is the primary cause of resource shortage,
environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation.
– SO2、NOx、烟尘等常规污染物排放的70%以上来自燃煤和汽车尾气。
more than 70% of SO2, NOx, soot and other conventional pollutants came from coal combustion and vehicle exhaust.
– 北京PM2.5，化石能源消费贡献率夏天约占50%，冬天约占70%；PM2.5成分中，40-75%的重金属、超过50%的黑碳来自化石能源消费
。
In Beijing, around 50% of PM2.5 from fossil fuel consumption in the summer, around70% of PM2.5 in the winter. In the
component of PM2.5, around 40-75% of the heavy metals and more than 50% of black carbon came from fossil fuel
consumption.
– 东部沿海地区煤炭燃烧带来环境和健康损失约为200-300元/吨。
In eastern coastal areas, environmental and health losses from coal combustion is about 200-300 yuan/ton.
– 煤炭产量超过科学产能近一倍，造成土地塌陷100万ha，地下水资源污染严重。
Coal production nearly doubled over the scientific capacity, resulting in land subsidence 1 million ha, serious pollution of
groundwater resources.
 3. 中国国内进入经济发展向绿色、低碳转型的新时期，粗放扩张的高碳发展方式已难以为继(2)
China’s economic growth is under a green and low carbon transition. Extensive
high carbon growth is unsustainable

 石油、天然气进口依存度持续增加，能源安全面临新的挑战。
The import dependency of oil and gas continues to increase, energy security is facing new
challenges.
 从2007-2012年，世界石油贸易量稳定在27亿吨，中
国同期进口量从2.03亿吨增加到3.5亿吨，增长72%，
同期美国石油进口量减少35%。我国2012年石油进口
依存度已达58%，超过美国的42%。
From 2007 to 2012, the world's oil trade
stabilized at 2.7 billion tons. During this period,
the imports oil of China increases from 203
million tones to 350 million tons, increases 72%;
the imports oil of the U.S. decreases 35%. In
2012, China’s import dependency of oil reached
58%, as compared to the US’ 42%
4. 中国处于工业化快速发展阶段，减缓CO2排放面临艰巨任务(1)
China is in rapid development stage of industrialization, faced with the
daunting task of reducing CO2 emissions
 中国节能和减排CO2取得显著成效，但由于经济快速增长，能源消费和CO2排放仍呈快速增长趋势。
Despite the great achievement in energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction, China’s energy consumption
and CO2 emissions are still on the rise due to the fast economic growth.

 从1990-2013年，GDP增长9.3倍，人均GDP由370美元增加到6757美元，
单位GDP能源强度下降59%，CO2强度下降62%。经济发展和节能减排
均取得显著成效。但同期能源消费总量增3.8倍，2005-2012年新增CO2
排放量约占世界增量的60%。
From 1990 to 2013, China’s GDP has experienced a 9.3-fold increase;
GDP per capita grew from 370 US dollars to 6,757 US dollars; energy
intensity decreased by 59%; and carbon intensity has reduced by 62%.
Much has been accomplished in both economic growth and energy
saving and emissions reduction. During the same period of time, the
total amount of energy consumption increased by 3.8 times, the
increased emissions from 2005 to 2012 made up for nearly 60% of the
total increase all over the world.
4. 中国处于工业化快速发展阶段，减缓CO2排放面临艰巨任务(2)
China is in rapid development stage of industrialization, faced with the
daunting task of reducing CO2 emissions
• 中国大力推广先进节能技术，淘汰落后工业产能，能效迅速提高，但单位GDP能耗仍处于较高水平。
In China advanced energy saving technologies are promoted and backward industrial capacities are
eliminated, energy efficiency are rapid enhanced, but the energy consumption per GDP remains high.
• 2005-2013年，淘汰落后产能，炼铁1.5亿吨，炼钢1.2亿吨，水泥8.7亿吨，火电机组9480多万千瓦。煤电站效率已达世界先
进水平。
From 2005 to 2013, the government shut down outdated production facilities including 150 million ton of iron
making, 120 million ton of steel making, 870 million ton of concrete, and 94.8 million kW of Coal-fired
power. The energy efficiency of coal-fired power reached the world advanced level.

 2013年单位GDP能耗仍为世界平均水平1.8倍，美国2.3倍，日本3.8倍。主要是重化工业产业比
重大和产品价值链低等结构性因素所致。
In 2013, the energy consumption per GDP is the 1.8 times of world average, is 2.3 times
in the U.S. and 3.8 times in Japan. The main reasons include the large percentage of
heavy chemical industry and low product value chain.
4. 中国处于工业化快速发展阶段，减缓CO2排放面临艰巨任务(3)
China is in rapid development stage of industrialization, faced with the
daunting task of reducing CO2 emissions

 中国新能源和可再生能源发展迅速，但由于能源消费总量的快速增长，以煤为主的一次能源结构难以根本性转变。
China has experienced fast growth in new and renewable energy; however, the coal-dominant primary energy
supply has not transformed fundamentally due to the fast growth in energy consumption
 中国可再生能源发展迅速，投资规模、新增容量和增长速度均居世界第一。2013年水电、上网风电、上网光伏发电容量分别
达2.8亿千瓦、7548万千瓦、1480万千瓦，均达世界前列。2014年底核电运行和在建装机4855万千瓦。
China has experienced fast development in the field of renewable energy and has ranked first in terms of investment, the
added installed capacity and growth rate. The generation capacities of hydro power, grid-connected wind power and grid-
connected photovoltaic power reached 280 GW, 75.5 GW and 14.8 GW in 2013, all among the first ranks in the world. At
the end of 2014 the running and installing nuclear power is 48.55 million kW.

 煤炭等化石能源仍快速增长，煤炭在一次能源中比例一直在70%左右，2012年煤炭消费36.5亿吨，约占全球45%，2005-
2011年新增煤炭消费占世界增量的68%。石油消费增加量占世界增量的47%。
Coal still grows fast, making up for around 70% of the primary energy. The coal consumption in 2012 was 3.65 billion
tons, accounting for 45% of the world total. The increased coal and petroleum consumed from 2005 to 2012 accounted
for 68% and 47% of the world respectively.
5. 中国积极推动能源生产和消费革命，作为缓解国内资源环境制约和应对气候
变化减排的核心对策和关键着力点(1)
Promoting energy production and consumption revolution is the core strategy
and key focal points to address domestic resources and environment restriction
and global climate change
 习近平主席提出积极推动能源生产和消费革命
的5项要求：能源消费革命、能源供给革命、能
源技术革命、能源体制革命，全方位加强国际
合作。

5 requirements of actively promoting energy

production and consumption revolution posed
by President Xi: energy consumption
revolution, energy supply revolution, energy
technology revolution, energy mechanisms
revolution, and comprehensively enhancing
international cooperation.
5. 中国积极推动能源生产和消费革命，作为缓解国内资源环境制约和应对气候变化减排
的核心对策和关键着力点(2)
Promoting energy production and consumption revolution is the core strategy and key
focal points to address domestic resources and environment restriction and global
climate change
 全球资源环境制约日益强化，发展中国家不可能再沿袭发达国家以高资源消费和高排放为支撑的传统现代化道路，必须走
以技术创新为支撑的新型工业化和城市化道路，走绿色低碳的发展路径。

The global resource constraints prevent the developing countries from duplicating the traditional patterns of
development at the expenses of high resource consuming and high emissions. Thus, it is essential for China to
choose a low-carbon approach supported by technology innovation in its processes of industrialization and
urbanization.
 当前应对全球气候变化与解决国家能源安全、资源和环境约束、节能减排的目标一致。
长远与中国走新型工业化道路，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的发展目标一致。

Addressing climate change is aligned with the goals of ensuring the national
energy security, resource conservation, environment protection, energy saving
and emissions reduction. In the long run, it is aligned with the target of
establishing a new industrialization pathway and a resource and environmental-
friendly society.
 6. 强化节能和能源低碳化转型是中国能源革命的核心，大幅度降低单位GDP的能源强度和CO2强度
是当前统筹经济增长和节能减碳的综合目标和核心对策(1)
Strengthening energy saving and low carbon energy transformation are
central to China‘s energy revolution, greatly reducing energy intensity and
CO2 intensity per GDP is key target for economic growth and the energy
saving as well as carbon reduction
• “十一五”制定GDP能源强度下降20%左右的约束性目标，实际达到19.1%，相应CO2强度下降21%。
In“11th Five Year Plan” the government establish the legally binding targets for reducing energy intensity per GDP
by around 20%, the actually achievement is 19.1%, and the relative CO2 intensity per GDP decrease 21%
• “十二五”制定GDP能源强度下降16%、CO2强度下降17%的约束性目标。
In “12th Five Year Plan” the government establish the legally binding targets for reducing energy intensity per GDP
by 16% and reducing CO2 intensity per GDP by 17%
• 从2005-2014年，GDP的能源强度下降29.9%，CO2强度已下降32.7%，同期附件II国家下降幅度仅约15%。
From 2005 to 2014, China’s energy intensity per GDP had decreased 29.9%, CO2 intensity per GDP had decreased
32.7%, at the same period the descend range of Annex II is only15%

 中国制定2020年单位GDP的CO2强度比2005年下降40-45%的目标，“十三五”经努力有望
超过45%。
China set the target of reducing CO2 intensity per GDP around 40% to 45% in 2020
than 2005, in “13th Five Year Plan” the goal of 45% probability be exceeded by
effort.
6. 强化节能和能源低碳化转型是中国能源革命的核心，大幅度降低单位GDP的能源强度和CO2强度是当前统筹经
济增长和节能减碳的综合目标和核心对策(2)
Strengthening energy saving and low carbon energy transformation are central to
China‘s energy revolution, greatly reducing energy intensity and CO2 intensity per GDP
is key target for economic growth and the energy saving as well as carbon reduction

• 中国同时制定2020年非化石能源比例从2005年6.8%上升到15%的目标。
Established a target of increasing percentage of non-fossil fuel from 6.8% in 2005 to 15% in 2020
• 2013年非化石能源比例达9.8%，2015年规划达11.4%，今后每年供应量增速要达8-10%。
In 2013 China’s percentage of non-fossil fuel is 9.8%, and in 2015 the target of percentage of non-fossil fuel is
11.4%. and its annual growth of supply will be 8% to 10% in the future.

 2020年非化石能源供应量将达7亿tce，相当日本能源消费总量。
In 2020 China’s non-fossil fuel supply will be 700 million tce, is the
equal of Japan’s total energy consumption.
 加快天然气开发利用，天然气比例将由2005年2.6%提升到2020年10%以上。
To speed up the natural gas development and utilization, the percentage
of gas in primary energy will increase from 2.6% in 2005 to more than
10% in 2020.
 7. “十三五”及以后中国在进一步强化单位GDP的能源强度和CO2强度下降目标的同时
，将探讨能源消费总量的控制目标(1)
In the 13th Five Year Plan China will continue to strengthen energy
and CO2 intensity target, and explore control of total energy
consumption
• 习近平主席提出：要推动能源消费革命，抑制不合理能源需求，坚决控制能源消费总量。并将其作为促进经济发展方式转变
和环境治理的重要政策。
President Xi Jinping: To promote energy consumption revolution, curb unreasonable energy demand, firmly
control the total energy consumption. And it is a significant policies to promote the transformation of economic
development patterns and environment governance.
– “十三五”及以后，技术节能难度加大，成本增加，但钢铁、水泥等高耗能产品需求将趋于饱和。产业结构调整和升级带来的结构性
节能效果更加显现。
In “13th Five Year Plan” and after, technical energy–saving will become difficult and its cost will increase. But the demand
of energy-intensive products such as steel and concrete will tend to be saturated. Structural energy saving effect from
adjusting and upgrading industrial structure is more apparent.
 “十三五”应实施能源消费总量（主要是煤炭）的控制目标，实施“强度”
和“总量”的双控机制。2020年煤炭消费总量可控制在40亿tce以内。
In “13th Five Year Plan” the government need to implement the control
target of total energy consumption (mainly coal), and to implement
control mechanism both “intensity” and “total quantity”. In 2020
China’s coal consumption probability be controlled within 4.0 billion tce.
7. “十三五”及以后中国在进一步强化单位GDP的能源强度和CO2强度下降目标的同时，将探讨能
源消费总量的控制目标(2)
In the 13th Five Year Plan China will continue to strengthen energy and CO2
intensity target, and explore control of total energy consumption
2030年前我国主要大宗矿产的需求变化趋势预测
The trend projection of China’s main bulk mineral need before 2030
 8. 当前确立2020年后积极紧迫的CO2减排目标和峰值目标，有利于推动能源生产和消费革命，形成促进经济方式
低碳转型的有效机制
At present establishing positive urgent post-2020-target of CO2 emissions and peak, will
promote energy revolution, and will form an effective mechanism to transform economy
pattern to low-carbon.
• 实现2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值，2030年非化石能源比重达20%左右的目标，都需要超前部署，落实到每个
5年规划，采取相应政策和措施。
To achieve CO2 emissions peak around 2030 and around 20% of non-fossil energy structure in 2030,
the forward deployment is needed. The central government should implement the target within Five-
Year-Plan (FYP) and adopt corresponding policies and measures.
 以2030年目标为指导，制定“十三五”、“十四五”、“十五五”每个5年规划，制定约束性目标，并
分解到各省市。
Based on 2030 target, the central government should establish “13th FYP”, “14th FYP” and
“15th FYP”, set restrictive targets, and disaggregate to all provinces and cities.
 从2030年目标推动能源生产和消费革命，形成促进发展方式向低碳转型的管理制度、政府体系和运行
机制。
Based on 2030 target, the central government should promote energy production and
consumption revolution, form management statute, government system and operation
mechanism to accelerate economic and social development to low-carbon.
9. 中国2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值，在经济发展阶段上要早于发达国家CO2排放达峰值时的发展
阶段，需要付出更大的努力，也面临更大困难(1)
With CO2 emissions peak around 2030, China’s carbon peaking time is ahead of
developed countries’ stage in economic development stage, requiring greater
efforts, and facing greater challenges
 欧、美等发达国家人均CO2排放峰值和总量峰值时间都陆续出现在1970年代初完成工业化和城市化发展阶段
之后。人均GDP（2000年不变价）超过10000美元，经济增长缓慢（<3%），能源消费量基本趋于稳定。
In Europe and US, per capita CO2 emissions peak appeared in the 1970s after industrialization and
urbanization were completed. The GDP per capita (in constant 2000 prices) is more than $10,000,
economic growth is slow ( < 3%), and total energy consumption stabilized.

 中国2030年潜在GDP增速仍达4-5%，能源总需求仍呈缓慢增长趋势，2030年左
右CO2排放达峰值，必须有更大力度节能和能源结构改变的措施。
China’s potential GDP growth rate in 2030 will around 4-5%, total energy
demand will still increase slowly; China want to achieve CO2 emissions
peak around 2030, measures to enhance energy saving and change energy
structure are needed.
9. 中国2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值，在经济发展阶段上要早于发达国家CO2排放达峰值时的发展
阶段，需要付出更大的努力，也面临更大困难(2)
With CO2 emissions peak around 2030, China’s carbon peaking time is ahead of
developed countries’ stage in economic development stage, requiring greater
efforts, and facing greater challenges
CO2排放人均和总量峰值以及能源消费峰值
The total and per capita of CO2 emissions, and energy consumption peak

Peaking time of Energy consumption per

Peaking time of Peaking time of Peaking CO2
Peaking time of CO2 final energy capita in peaking time of
Country total CO2 total energy emissions per
emissions per capita consumption in total energy consumption
emissions consumption capita (t/person)
Industry （tce/person）

the U.S. 1973 2007 2007 1973 22.2 10.8

EU-15 1973 1980 2005 1973 9.4 5.54

UK 1973 1975 2001 1973 11.7 5.41

GER 1980 1980 1985 1973 13.4 6.51

JP 2005 2007 2004 1973 9.5 5.87

 中国2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值，人均CO2排放水平将低于发达国家峰值时人均排放量。
China’s CO2 emission peaking time will be around 2030, and the level of per capita CO2 emissions will lower
than developed countries in their peaking time of CO2 emissions.
10. 中国2030年左右实现CO2排放峰值目标，需采取强有力的政策和措施，大幅度降低GDP能源
强度和CO2强度，在控制CO2排放的同时支撑经济持续增长(1)
To achieve China’s CO2 emission peak target around 2030, the strengthened polies and measures
are needed, the energy and CO2 intensity will be reduced significantly, while maintaining economic
growth and controlling CO2 emissions
 政策驱动 Policy Drivers
 投资/消费比例 Ratio of Investment/Consumption
2020，57/43
2030，36/64
2040，30/70
 碳价 Carbon Pricing
2020, $20;
2030, $38
2040, $64
 煤炭总量控制：～40亿吨
Coal Consumption Cap :
~4 billion tone.
 征收可再生电力附加费， 2030年电价增30%
Electricity surcharge for renewable power:
The electricity tariff will increase 30% in 2030.
 非化石能源比例
Share of non-fossil fuel
2020, 15%; 2030, 20%
10. 中国2030年左右实现CO2排放峰值目标，需采取强有力的政策和措施，大
幅度降低GDP能源强度和CO2强度，在控制CO2排放的同时支撑经济持续增长
(2)
To achieve China’s CO2 emission peak target around 2030, the strengthened
polies and measures are needed, the energy and CO2 intensity will be reduced
significantly, while maintaining economic growth and controlling CO2 emissions

 中国2030年GDP为2010年的3.0-3.5倍，
单位GDP的CO2强度年下降率要达4%
以上。
China’s GDP in 2030 will be 3.0
to 3.5 times compare with 2010，
CO2 intensity per GDP will
decrease more than 4% annually.
10. 中国2030年左右实现CO2排放峰值目标，需采取强有力的政策和措施，大幅度降低
GDP能源强度和CO2强度，在控制CO2排放的同时支撑经济持续增长(3)
To achieve China’s CO2 emission peak target around 2030, the strengthened polies and
measures are needed, the energy and CO2 intensity will be reduced significantly, while
maintaining economic growth and controlling CO2 emissions
 2030年左右CO2排放达峰值的条件分析。
Conditions analysis of CO2 emissions peak around 2030 in China.
①GDP的CO2强度下降率>GDP年增长率
Annual decrease rate of the CO2 intensity per GDP > annual growth rate of GDP
 2030年左右，GDP能源强度下降不低于3%，能源消费的CO2强度下降率1.2-1.5%，GDP的CO2强度下降率大于4%，支持GDP年均4～
5%的速度增长。
With an GDP growth rate of 4-5% in around 2030, China’s decrease rate of energy intensity per GDP will need to be no lower than 3%,
the decrease rate of CO2 intensity per energy consumption will be among 1.2%-1.5%, and the decrease rate of CO2 intensity per GDP
will higher than 4.0%.
②单位能耗的CO2强度年下降率>能源消费年增长率
Annual decrease rate of CO2 intensity per energy consumption > Annual growth rate of energy consumption.
 2030年左右，非化石能源比重达约20%，且以年均6～8%的速度增长，单位能耗的CO2强度下降率可达1.2%以上 ，可支持总能源需
求1.2-1.5%的增长。在能源消费弹性约0.3情况下，支持GDP年均4～5%的增速。
With an energy consumption growth rate of 1.2-1.5% in around 2030, China’s share of non-fossil energy will need to be around 20%
with non-fossil energy supply growth keeping 6-8% per year, and the decrease rate of CO2 intensity per energy consumption will more
than 1.2%. With an GDP growth rate of 4-5% in around 2030, China’s energy elasticity will need to be bellow 0.3.
 11. 2030年实现非化石能源比例达20%左右目标，是实现CO2排放峰值的重要保障(1)
The target of 20% non-fossil fuel in total primary energy consumption
around 2030 is critical to achieving the CO2 emissions peak
• 2030年非化石能源比重达约20%，供应量约12亿tce，为2010年2.8亿tce的4.3倍，需保持年均7.5%的增速。
The non-fossil fuel mix getting around 20% in 2030 needs 1.2 billion tce of non-fossil fuel, it is 4.3 times than 2010 which is 280
million tce, and the 7.5% annual increasing rate of non-fossil fuel is needed.
• 从目前到2030年，新增核电、水电、风电、光伏发电、生物质发电等非化石能源装机8-10亿千瓦，非化石能源发电领域新增投资约达8万亿
元。
From now to 2030, the new installed non-fossil power including nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass will be 0.8-1 billion kW,
and new investment in non-fossil to produce electricity will be around ￥8 trillion.
中国非化石能源装机发展情景设想 Non-fossil fuel installed scenarios in China

2010 2020 2030

Converted primary Converted primary Converted

installed installed installed
energy （0.1 billion energy （0.1 billion primary energy
（0.1 billion kw） （0.1 billion kw） （0.1 billion kw）
tce） tce） （0.1 billion tce）
Hydropower 2.1 2.18 3.5 3.67 4.5 4.73

Wind power 0.4 0.26 2.0 1.44 4.0 2.88

Solar power 0.01 0.01 1.0 0.42 3.0 1.26

Biomass power 0.06 0.10 0.3 0.47 0.5 0.83

Nuclear power 0.11 0.27 0.58 1.32 1.36 3.07

Total 2.68 2.82 7.38 7.33 13.36 12.77

 11. 2030年实现非化石能源比例达20%左右目标，是实现CO2排放峰值的重要保障(2)
The target of 20% non-fossil fuel in total primary energy consumption around
2030 is critical to achieving the CO2 emissions peak
• 中国2030年后能源消费仍会持续增长，但新增需求由非化石能源满足，CO2排放不再增加。
The energy consumption in China after 2030 will keep increasing, but the new increasing
demand of energy will be supported by non-fossil fuel, and the total CO2 emissions will not be
increasing.
• 煤炭消费量达峰值时间需早于CO2排放达峰值时间
The peaking time of coal consumption would be earlier than of CO2 emissions.
 12. 中国促进能源体系低碳转型，实现CO2排放峰值目标和大比例非化石能源发展目标
，需比发达国家作出更大努力
China faces greater challenges in developing low-carbon energy
systems to achieve CO2 emissions peak and to develop non-fossil fuel
than developed countries
• 发展新能源和可再生能源，发达国家用以“替代存量”，中国则需首先 “满足增量 ”。
To develop new and renewable energy, developed countries use it to replace the stock, China uses it to meet the
incremental.
 美国2030年电力系统CO2排放比2005年减少30%，比2011年减21.6%，需
替代煤电1.2-1.5亿千瓦，非化石能源新增装机1.0-2.0亿千瓦。
In the United States, the CO2 emission from the power sector
would decrease by 30% from 2005 to 2030 and by 21.6% from
2011 to 2030, which would need to replace 120-150 GW of coal
power and add 120-150 GW of Non-fossil power.
 中国2030年比2010年，非化石能源装机增长10亿千瓦以上。新增供应量
10亿tce以上。
In China, the increased installed capacity of non-fossil power will 中美两国2030年新增装机和单位kwh的CO2强度比2011年的下降
be more than 1000GW from 2010 to 2030 with an increased non- 水平
The cumulative increased capacity of non-fossil electricity
fossil energy supply of over one billion tce. by 2030 and the reduction in CO2 emission per kWh from
2011 to 2030 in China and the United States
13. 中国未来经济增长、能源消费、CO2排放仍有较大不确定性。在积极的CO2排放减排目标指引
下，进行促进经济转型的超前部署
With great uncertainties in future economic growth, energy consumption and CO2
emissions, China needs to promote the economic transformation under the proactive
CO2 emissions target
 如果经济转型迟缓，能源需求增长得不到有效控制或者能
源结构调整在达不到预期，特别是核能和天然气增长迟缓，
则CO2排放峰值还会滞后，峰值排放量还会增加。
If the economic transition is slow with no effective
energy demand control, or the energy switching could
not take place as expected particularly due the slow
growth of nuclear and natural gas supply, the CO2
emissions peak time will be delayed and the peak
volume will be increased.
 AL: 强化低碳情景
Accelerated Low-carbon development scenario
 SL1：可选择的低碳情景（1）
Selectable Low-carbon development scenario(1)
 GDP年均增长率比AL高出0.5个百分点。CO2峰值约2035年。
The annual growth rate of GDP in SL1 is 0.5% higher
than in AL. The CO2 emissions would peak in around
2035.
 SL2：可选择的低碳情景（2）
Selectable Low-carbon development scenario (2)
 GDP年均增长率比AL高约0.5个百分点，GDP能源强度下降幅度5
年减少约一个百分点，CO2峰值推迟到2035年之后。
Relative to AL, the annual increase rate of GDP is
supposed to be 0.5% higher and the decrease rate of the
energy intensity lower 1% on average in five year term in
SL2. The CO2 emission would peak later than 2035.
 14. 推动能源生产和消费革命的战略核心是建立高效、安全、清洁、低碳的可持续能源体系，需要前
瞻性战略部署(1)
The core strategy for energy production and consumption revolution is to build
a sustainable energy system that is efficient, secure, clean and low-carbon, and
forward looking
• 能源战略要从传统保障供给转变到同时调控需求，控制能源需求总量的过快增长，促进发展方式的转变。强
化节能优先，大幅度提高能效。
The traditional energy strategy needs to be shifted from ensuring the supply to coordinating energy
supply and demand with an emphasis on controlling the over-speeded growth of the total energy
consumption, promoting the transformation of China’s development pattern. Enhancing energy
saving and raising energy efficiency should be given priorities.
 加强技术创新，大力发展新能源和可再生能源技术和产业。2013年，非化石能源发电新增容量
占比已达60%，新增投资占比达75%。并呈不断扩大趋势。
To strengthen technical innovation, to develop technology and industry of new and
renewable energy. In 2013, China’s non-fossil power accounted for 60% of increasing
installed, and investment of non-fossil power accounted for 75% of total power. The trend is
growing.
14. 推动能源生产和消费革命的战略核心是建立高效、安全、清洁、低碳的可持续能源体系，需要前瞻性战略部署
(2)
The core strategy for energy production and consumption revolution is to build a
sustainable energy system that is efficient, secure, clean and low-carbon, and forward
looking
 在确保安全的基础上，稳步、高效发展核能。
Nuclear energy should be promoted stably and effectively on the basis of safety.
 核能将是我国未来可持续能源体系中的重要支柱，核能2030年装机达约1.5亿千瓦，到2050年可达3.5～4.5亿千瓦，将对我国CO2排
放达到峰值起关键作用。
Nuclear energy will be a pillar industry in China’s sustainable energy system in the future. The installed capacity of nuclear
energy will be about 150 million kW in 2030, and rise to 350~450 million kW by 2050, and will play significant role in
reaching CO2 emission peak.

 加强国内能源资源的开发和科学高效利用，减少对外依赖，加强国际能源合作，保障能源供
给安全。
Promoting the sustainable and efficient use of domestic energy resources,
strengthening international energy cooperation, and ensuring energy supply security.
 加强常规和非常规天然气的勘探开发，天然气在一次能源比例迅速提升。
To enhance the exploitation and development of conventional and unconventional natural gas
to fast raise the natural gas proportion in primary energy supply.
 15. 加强经济、能源、环境和应对气候变化的协同治理，实现多方共赢的发展目标
To strengthen the cooperative governance among the economy, energy,
environment and addressing climate change, and to achieve win-win for all
 仅靠末端治理技术难以从根本上转变环境质量，东部沿海地区治理雾霾需要控制和减少煤炭消费量，
有利于尽快实现CO2排放峰值。
It is hard to improve environmental quality by only using terminal management technology.
Governing haze in eastern coastal regions of China need to control and reduce coal consumption,
and that will be helpful to implement CO2 emissions peak as soon as possible.
 河北省2013-2017年煤炭消费量要下降60Mt
From 2013 to 2017, the coal consumption in Hebei Province will
reduce 60Mt.
 应对气候变化下能源革命有利于促进经济发展方式的低碳转型，创造新的
经济增长点和新的发展机遇，走上可持续发展的路径。
Under the situation of addressing climate change, energy revolution
will promote economic pattern transformation to low carbon, will
create new economic growth point and new development opportunities,
and will achieve sustainable development.
16. 我国工业化、城市化进程要走上绿色低碳发展路径，首先要促进产业转型，工业部
门的能源消费和CO2排放要率先达到峰值(1)
To achieve green and low-carbon industrialization and urbanization, the first is to
promote the industry transformation and to advance the peak of energy consumption
and CO2 emissions from the industrial sectors
 发达国家上世纪70年代工业化后，总能耗基本趋于稳定。OECD的34个国家从1973-2009年，工业终端能耗下降23.5%，交
通终端能耗增加68.6%，民用、商业能耗增加36.9%。
Ever since the accomplishment of industrialization of developed countries after 1970s, the total energy
consumption has remained steady. From 1973 to 2009, 34 countries in OECD have experienced a decrease of
23.5% in industrial energy consumption, an increase of 68.6% in transportation energy consumption and an
increase of 36.9% in residential and commercial energy consumption.
 中国工业部门能耗占全国终端总能耗约70%（发达国家一般占1/3)，其中高耗能原材料产业占50%。高耗能产品需求即将陆
续出现饱和。
Industrial energy use contributes around 70% to China’s total energy consumption (about 1/3 in developed
countries). 50% of the consumption is from energy intensive and raw material industries. The demand of energy
intensive products is approaching saturation.
16. 我国工业化、城市化进程要走上绿色低碳发展路径，首先要促进产业转型，
工业部门的能源消费和CO2排放要率先达到峰值(2)
To achieve green and low-carbon industrialization and urbanization, the first is
to promote the industry transformation and to advance the peak of energy
consumption and CO2 emissions from the industrial sectors
 实现CO2排放峰值，必须工业部门能耗持续下降，
交通、建筑能耗的增加依靠发展新能源和可再生能
源满足，化石能源消费和CO2排放趋于稳定并逐步
下降。

To achieve the peak of CO2 emissions, the

industrial energy use should be decreased
continuously. The increasing energy demand
from transportation and buildings should be
supplied by developing new and renewable
energy; fossil energy consumption and CO2
emissions are to be maintained steady and
decreasing gradually.
17.东部沿海发达地区要制定更为积极的低碳发展目标，在全国率先实现煤炭
消费和CO2排放峰值(1)
The eastern coastal areas should make more aspiring low-carbon goals to lead
China in reaching the CO2 emissions peak
 东部发达地区人均GDP大都达10000美元左右，人均CO2排放已相当或超过欧盟、日本人均CO2排放峰值时水
平。
The average income per capita in eastern developed areas in China is around 10,000 US dollars. The
per capita CO2 emission in above areas has already surpassed the per capita CO2 emissions peaks of
EU and Japan.
 东部发达地区是能源资源短缺、环境污染严重地区，今年元月严重雾霾天气，燃煤排放是其首要成因。要实
现煤炭消费和CO2排放总量控制。
Eastern developed areas are short of energy resource and are facing serious pollution issues. The
foggy and hazy weather in January this year was resulted primarily from coal combustion. The control
over total coal consumption and CO2 emissions should be enhanced.
17.东部沿海发达地区要制定更为积极的低碳发展目标，在全国率先实现煤炭
消费和CO2排放峰值(2)
The eastern coastal areas should make more aspiring low-carbon goals to lead
China in reaching the CO2 emissions peak
 如仍持续当前发展模式，2020年很多地区的人均CO2排放将远超欧盟、日本的水平，而直逼美国的人均水平。
If China continues to follow the current development pattern, the CO2 emission per capita will far
surpass the levels of EU and Japan and will reach that of the US.

 北京市煤炭消费2005年已达到峰值，2011年已下降23%，人
均CO2排放2007年已到达峰值。
Beijing reached the coal consumption peak in 2005 and
experienced a decrease of 23% in 2011. The CO2
emissions per capita reached the peak in 2007.
 18. 我国面临经济发展方式转型的新时期，新常态的新形势下绿色低碳发展要
有新的思路和新的举措
China is facing with the new period of economy transition, low-carbon
development will have new ideas and new measures under the new situations of
new normal.
• 由注重GDP增长的速度和数量转向更加注重经济发展的质量和效益，GDP增速回落到7%左右中高速，产业结构调整加速，钢铁、水泥等高耗能原
材料产品将陆续达到峰值，有利于降低GDP能耗强度，但各地仍存在为保增长继续扩充重化工业产能的倾向。
To pay more attention to quality and efficiency of economic development from focusing on speed and the number of
GDP. The annual growth rate of GDP will fall back around 7%, the industry adjustment is accelerated. The energy-
intensive products raw materials such as steel and cement will continue peak. That is helpful to decrease energy
intensity per GDP. But there are lots of places to sustaining economic growth continues to the tendency of expansion
of heavy industry production capacity.
• 能源需求增速放缓，有利于能源结构调整，提高清洁低碳能源的比例。但煤炭行业化解产业过剩也会挤占新能源的发展空间和市场。
Increasing energy demand is slow, and that will help energy structure adjustment, and will improve the percentage of
clean and low carbon energy. But the coal industry resolving overcapacity will take the space and market of new
energy.
• 要强化绿色低碳发展是生态文明建设核心内容的发展理念，改变各级领导的发展观和政绩观，加快推动能源革命的制度建设和机制改革。
To strength the development concept of green and low development is the core of developing ecological civilization.
To change leaders at all levels of development and achievement. And to promote system construction and reform of
energy revolution.
19.明确低碳发展在国家和地区总体发展战略中的定位，加强制度和政策保障
体系的建设(1)
Strategically positoning low-carbon development in the overall national
regional strategy of development, and establishing related regulations and
policy system
 生态文明建设在“五位一体”的总体布局中占据突出地位，低碳发展在国家总体发展战略中应具有优
先权重。强化对各级政府节能降碳的目标分解和责任考核。
Ecology protection plays a key role in “Five-in-One” plan and low-carbon development should
be given priority in the nation’s overall development strategy. The central government should
intensify the target duty of energy-saving and reducing carbon to all levels of government.
 加快《应对气候变化法》和《低碳发展促进法》的立法进程，为
低碳发展提供法律和政策保障。
To accelerate the establishment of Climate Change Law and
Low-carbon Development Promotion Law to provide
legislations and policy guarantees for low-carbon
development.
19.明确低碳发展在国家和地区总体发展战略中的定位，加强制度和政策保障体系的建
设(2)
Strategically positoning low-carbon development in the overall national regional strategy
of development, and establishing related regulations and policy system

 加强财税金融政策体系和低碳消费激励机制的建设，建立并完善碳排放权交易等市场机制，为低碳发展创
造良好的制度环境、政策环境和市场环境。
To create a favorable regulation, policy and market environment through enhancing the
establishment of financial and tax policy system, low-carbon incentive system, and through
establishing and improving the emissions trading schemes.
 风电、太阳能发电上网电价补贴。上网电价：风电0.51-0.61元/kWh，太阳能发电0.9元/kWh
Feed-in tariff of wind power and solar power: Wind power: 0.51 – 0.61 ￥/kWh,
solar power: 0.9 ￥/kWh.
 可再生能源基金。全国电费中收取0.15元/kWh
Renewable energy fund: 0.15￥/kWh from electricity price.
 风电场增值税减半。风电2020年左右可取消补贴。
Value-added tax of wind farm is by half, subsidies of wind power could be canceled
around 2020.
20. 发挥市场机制，“十三五”在碳排放交易试点基础上发展全国统一的碳市场
To develop the market based mechanism, China would establish unified national carbon
market in “13th Five Years Plan” based on pilot of CO2 emissions trading system
 发挥碳排放空间的紧缺资源和生产要素的属性，改革能源价格机制，推进碳排放额度交易市场建设。
Reform of energy pricing mechanism and promotion of carbon market according to the property of
carbon space as a scarce resource and a production factor.
 碳税和碳市场等“碳价”机制，引导先进能源技术创新和社会投资导向，促进能源体系变革和低碳发展。
Introduction of carbon tax and carbon market as "carbon pricing" mechanism to guide advanced energy
technology innovation and social capital investment as well as promote the energy system revolution and
low carbon development.

 “五市二省”碳排放交易试点进展顺利，2016年开始建立全国统一碳市场。
The pilot of CO2 emissions trading in five cities and two provinces works
well, and China will establish unified national carbon market in 2016.
 北京市碳交易市场年交易额超过1亿元，碳价稳定在45元/tCO2左右。
The volume of trade in Beijing’s carbon trading market in more
than 100 million yuan, and the carbon pricing is stable about 45
yuan/tCO2
 21. 积极推进低碳城市建设试点，对全国实施应对气候变化和低碳发展战略起到引领和
示范作用(1)
Actively promote low-carbon city pilots, to lead and demonstrate national addressing
climate change and low carbon development
• 控制温室气体排放，确定CO2减排目标和峰值目标
To control GHG emissions and to determine the CO2 emissions reduction target and peak.
– 镇江、宁波、青岛等城市已确定2020年左右CO2排放达到峰值。
The cities which establishes CO2 emissions peak around 2020 in China: Zhenjiang, Ningbo, Tsingdao, et, al.

 加强基础能力建设
To strengthen the construction of basic abilities
 建立了应对气候变化的体系与机构；提前完成温室气体清单的编制工作，统计核算体系加强；低碳发展专项资金的建立；探索
低碳发展的目标考核机制。
Established systems and institutions to respond to climate change; to complete in advance the GHG list, and to strengthen the
statistical system; to establish special funds to low carbon development; to explore the goal and examine mechanism of low
carbon development.
 努力创新机制
Efforts to innovation mechanism
 推动低碳发展的政策措施和标准体系（碳排放交易试点、低碳产品认证试点、出台了低碳城区、低碳社区评价指标体系）。
To promote the policy measures and standard system of low carbon development. (Pilot of CO2 emissions trading, pilot of low carbon
product certification, and the evaluation index system of low carbon city and low carbon community. )
 21. 积极推进低碳城市建设试点，对全国实施应对气候变化和低碳发展战略起
到引领和示范作用(2)
Actively promote low-carbon city pilots, to lead and demonstrate national
addressing climate change and low carbon development
 推进低碳发展示范项目建设
To promote the construction of low carbon development demonstration projects
 低碳示范社区、产业低碳示范园区和低碳商业；
Low carbon demonstration of community, Low carbon demonstration of industry zone and low carbon business;
 推动低碳技术创新
To promote low carbon technology innovation
 积极扶持低碳技术创新和产业化；各试点省市积极组织申报国家优先推广
的低碳技术（低碳能源、原材料替代、碳捕获与封存）。
Actively support the low carbon technology innovation and
industrialization; the pilot provinces and cities actively organize to
declare low carbon technology promoted by national priority (low
carbon energy, raw material substitution, carbon capture and
sequestration) .
22. 全球应对气候变化国际制度框架要促进各国的可持续发展，促进国际技术合作和互利共赢(1)
International framework on climate change regimes should promote the
sustainable development of the countries and facilitate the win-win technology
collaborations
• 促进能源体系变革，减少CO2排放，具有经济、社会、环境多重效益，既是应对气候变化的核心对策，也是各国实现可持续发展
的根本途径，存在合作共赢的空间。
Energy system reform and CO2 emissions reduction will bring economic, social and environmental benefits. It is a
core strategy in addressing climate change, a radical approach to achieving sustainable development of the
countries and it creates win-win space for the countries.
• 先进能源技术发展带来的减排作用的价值，提高了先进技术的经济效益和推广速度，也增大了国际技术合作和技术转移的空
间和潜力。
The development and deployment of advanced energy technologies create great value in emissions reduction,
increase the economic growth and expansion pace and enhance the potential of international technology
cooperation and transfer.
• 充分发挥碳价的作用，促进UNFCCC框架下技术转让，有利于促进发展中国家的可持续发展，同时给发达国家企业带来更广
泛的市场和商机，其获得减排信用也可带来可观的经济收益。
Giving full play to the role of the carbon pricing, and promoting technology transfer under UNFCCC framework
creates favorable conditions for sustainable development in developing countries and brings wide market and
opportunities for the enterprises in developed countries. The emissions reduction credits generated will also bring
developed countries considerable economic revenues.
22. 全球应对气候变化国际制度框架要促进各国的可持续发展，促进国际技术合作和互利共赢(2)
International framework on climate change regimes should promote the
sustainable development of the countries and facilitate the win-win technology
collaborations
• 全球应对气候变化下的能源变革要成为各国可持续发展的机遇，注重发挥减排CO2与国内缓解资源环境压力的协同效应，促
进各国自觉行动，不是“要我减”，而是“我要减”。
Under the situation of addressing global climate change, energy transform become a national
sustainable development opportunities. The countries should pay attention to co-benefits of CO2
emissions reduction with domestic resources and environment protection, promote the nations
conscious action, instead of “Want me to reduce” there is “I want to reduce”.
• 全球应对气候变化国际制度不仅着眼于减排责任和义务的分担，更应着重于发展机遇的共享，着重于形成促进世界范围内经
济社会发展方式向绿色低碳转型，转变经济增长方式和社会消费方式，促进能源变革，大幅度提高“碳生产率”的制度和机制
，使世界各国都实现可持续发展与CO2减排的双重目标和共赢路径。
International system of addressing global climate change is not only focusing on the sharing of
emission reduction responsibilities and obligations, but also should focus on sharing development
opportunities, on promoting the worldwide economy and society to green and low carbon,
transferring the pattern of economic growth and social consumption, promoting energy revolution,
setting up mechanism of increasing ‘carbon productivity’ substantially, so as to accomplish the
dual target of sustainable development and CO2 emission reduction worldwide.
Thank you!
 Climate change: Who will lead?
The Elders in conversation with young people

Jimmy Carter and Hina Jilani

Moderated by Laurence Tubiana
#ScPoElders
@TheElders | @SciencesPo
http://www.cop21makeitwork.com/