Epidemics

 and  Diffusion

Simple  rumor

Ignorant Wise

Rumor
spreading rate

rumor spreading
constant

Epidemic  core  structure

Susceptible Sick Recovered

Becoming sick Recovering

(B) Susceptible contacts w (R)

infectious people

Suscptible
Probability contact is
contacts p day
infected

Basic  epidemic  model

Fraction of contacts
Time to show symptoms
transmitting disease

Infected but not Sick and

Susceptible symptomatic symptomatic
Infection Sickness rate
rate
Cure rate
(B)

Susceptible contacts w Infected

infectious people (R) population
Recovered Sick time

Susceptible
contacts p day
Probability contact is
infected

People contacted p susc

p day Total population
Bass  Model  from  Marketing

Prob of
adoption given
contact
Contacts per
person per yr Potential
Sales from market size
word of mouth

(B) (R)

Potential
Installed base
customers
Sales rate

(B)

Sales from
marketing

marketing
factor

Bass  Model  with  expanded  formulation  for  Word-­of-­mouth:

+ Sales from
Fraction of potiential marketing
customers reached by
marketing per yr C

Potential customers Installed base

Sales rate

Probability of
+ adoption given
C contact
Sales from word of +
mouth

R
Potential customer
contacts + Probability contact is with
Installed base units
+
+ Potential customer -
Contacts per Potential +
contacts with Intalled base
customer per year Total market
units
Norsk  Hydro  oil  platform  concept  models

Synergies betw
potential and
experience
Experience with
transition
Potential capacity to
transition
Speed of
B transition R

Capacity in New capacity in

Traditional ops Integrated ops
Transition to
Integrated ops

Synergies betw
potential and
experience
Experience with
transition
Potential capacity to R
transition
Speed of Time to fully
B transition R integrate ops

Capacity in New capacity in Mature capacity in

Traditional ops Integrated ops Integrated ops
Transition to Maturing Integrated
Integrated ops ops

Risk Cost per bbl

Norsk  Hydro  model:    Hydro1,  Work  Processes  view:

Newness of work
processes
Total work
processes in place

Traditional work New work

processes processes in place
developing new integrating new work
work processes processes

Resources in work <Total work processes in

Fraction of work process place>
sprocesses that are development
traditional Fraction of work
processes that are new
or mature
Productivity of
resources in WP
devel

Effect of trad WP remaining on Effect of new WP on WP

devel WP productivity devel productivity

New initiatives
Normal productivity of
burden
resources in work process
devel Effect of new initiatives on
devel new work processes

Revolutions
support
factor time to stay
mobilized

Supporting Neutralizing

Govt Mobilized
Uninvolved
supporters opposition

Disaffecting Recruiting

time supporting govt Recruiting

factor
 <Committed neutrals> <Scaring
rebels>
Feelings of
repression
Coercive effects of Tolerated govt
The Whole System repression repression
Usual coercing <Committed
rebels>
Usual scaring
tendency
tendency
time to get used to
repression
Coercing Scaring rebels
neutrals Govt repression

Supporting Neutralizing

Loyalists Rebels
Neutrals

Disaffecting Recruiting Govt tendency to

repress rebels
Likelihood of
Total
revolution
population <Committed
<Committed Tendency to
loyalists> Tendency to lose
neutrals> rebel
loyalty
Critical mass of
Usual tendency to Usual tendency opposition
Uncritical mass of Disillusioning effects of
lose loyalty to rebel
govt support govt injustices

Feelings of Threshold for critical

injustices <Total population>
Govt injustiices Perceived govt mass of opposition
injustices

Government tendency to time to adjust to

Tolerated govt
take advantage time to perceive injustices govt injustices
govt injustices
Mentoring  new  personnel

Total personnel Fraction experienced

Target growth
rate

New Experienced
personnel personnel
Gaining Experienced
Hiring rate experience rate leave rate

Time to become Frac exp leaving

experienced p year
Mentoring time available
Mentoring time needed

Adequacy of
Mentoring time
mentoring
needed p New Mentoring
time available
Perceived p Exp
time to
become exp