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Foreign Policy - Nov-Dec-08
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Big News and Big Ideas
W e normally use this page to highlight some of the big ideas our readers will
encounter in the magazine. This time, we are making an exception to share some
important news: Foreign Policy has a new home. We are thrilled to announce that
on October 1, our magazine was purchased by the Washington Post Company from its
longtime owner, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
For nearly four decades, the Carnegie Endowment’s generous and unwavering
support allowed Foreign Policy to become what it is today—an award-winning pub-
lication recognized for the quality of its content and the caliber of its writers. We are also
proud that FP enjoys a growing, enthusiastic, and global audience, with editions in nine
languages and readers in more than 160 countries.
FP’s success would not have been possible without Carnegie’s
recognition that editorial excellence depends on intellectual inde-
pendence. As editors, we not only enjoyed Carnegie’s material
support but, just as important, we were given the freedom to
pursue big ideas regardless of any consideration other than their
importance, rigor, and originality. In a competitive marketplace of
ideas that is international and instantaneous, we know we will only
attract and retain readers by presenting the most important ideas
about global politics and economics in a way that challenges the
common wisdom and stimulates new thinking.
This approach has served us well. It stands at the core of
the reasons that led the Washington Post Company to buy FP.
At a time in which print publications are challenged by the
Internet, our new owner recognizes that quality content mat-
ters more than its format. And while most American publications are cutting back on
their international coverage, the Washington Post Company sees the opportunities cre-
ated by a growing market of readers eager to better understand how their communities,
jobs, and families will be affected by what happens in other countries and continents.
We don’t plan to make major changes to an editorial approach that is working well—
just to give you more of it. Foreign Policy will continue to appear every two months,
and ForeignPolicy.com will continue to offer original material on a daily basis. We will
also be hard at work on a major relaunch of FP’s Web site for early 2009.
We could not be more excited to join a company that embodies the values of quality
journalism: objectivity and independence. And we cannot help but celebrate that our new
owners are as dedicated as we are to the mission laid out in the first issue of Foreign
Policy by its founders: “Our goal is a journal of foreign policy that is serious but not
scholarly, lively but not glib, and critical without being negative.” These words are as valid
today as they were in 1970.
We look forward to hearing from you. And thank you for your continued support.
The Editors
P.S.: We are proud to announce that FP won three Folio awards in September. The
magazine won gold in the Best Article category for “What America Must Do,” and it
received second-place honors in the Best Article and Best Full Issue categories. We are
honored to be singled out once again for one of the industry’s most competitive honors.
N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 1
C O N T E N T S
November| December 2 0 0 8
THINK AGAIN
40 Change Is in the Air More airlines around the world have gone
belly up this year than in the aftermath of September 11. Airlines have
simply met their match in the high price of oil. Nothing short of a com-
plete overhaul of the industry—fewer carriers, fewer flights, and far
higher prices—will keep the world flying. By William Swelbar
ESSAYS
42 America’s Hard Sell For more than half a century, the United
States ensured that five Big Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as
the Big Ideas of the 21st century are formed, just who will corner the new
global market of ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though:
50 The Dream Team The next American president will confront a host
of potential cataclysms: from a virulent financial crisis to a vicious
terrorist enemy, nuclear proliferation to climate change. He’ll need his
country’s brightest minds—not his party’s usual suspects. So, we asked
68
10 of the world’s top thinkers to name the unlikely team that can best
guide No. 44 through the turbulent years ahead.
Urban legends:
Find out which towns Robert Baer Kishore Mahbubani
top our ranking of the Christoph Bertram Cesare Merlini
world’s most global cities. Robert L. Gallucci Grover Norquist
Leslie H. Gelb Gideon Rachman
2 Foreign Policy
58
THE FP INDEX
68 The Global Cities Index Cities bear the brunt of the world’s
financial meltdowns, crime waves, and climate crises in ways national
governments never will. So, when Foreign Policy, A.T. Kearney, and the
Chicago Council on Global Affairs teamed up to measure globalization
around the world, we focused on the 60 cities that shape our lives the most.
ARGUMENT
78 Power to the People Why it’s the poor—not the experts—who
can best solve the food crisis. By Eric Werker
TOP: GILLES SABRIE; BOTTOM: ILLUSTRATION BY SHOUT FOR FP
REVIEWS
80 IN OTHER WORDS The dangers of ignoring evil By James Traub
I An Arab intellectual studies an unlikely subject By Robert
Silverman I Plus, what they’re reading in Havana.
4 Foreign Policy
[ Letters ]
On geopolitical grounds, Frum’s assess- on future events: whether Iraq contin-
ments are highly questionable. Although ues toward peace and whether the U.S.-
he concedes that the war in Iraq has India relationship matures into a true
defined Bush’s presidency, Frum over- partnership. At the same time, many of
looks the critical human toll of the war their criticisms are conditional as well.
Lynn E. Newhouse on Iraq: citizens forced to move from The assumption that further terrorist
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER & GENERAL MANAGER their homes and become refugees in their attacks could have been prevented with
Annette Munroe own country and beyond it. The human- “moderately successful defensive secu-
CIRCULATION DIRECTOR itarian crisis in Iraq is no mere detail. rity measures” or that the Indian poli-
Robert Essaf
Displaced populations are fertile breed- cy will generate “runs on the bank”
BUSINESS ASSISTANT
ing pools for despair and terrorism. They are far from guaranteed outcomes, for
can trigger conflict for the seizure of example.
Amy Russell land and ethnic cleansing. And they can Much of the harshest criticism of the
DIRECTOR OF SALES shape the geopolitical interests of neigh- Bush presidency has already been
Maria San Jose
boring countries. debunked by events. The tone of this
ADVERTISING SALES REPRESENTATIVE
Regarding Latin America, Frum criticism has often been hyperpartisan
makes the cryptic suggestion that Bush and overstated far beyond any reason-
Jina Hassan has given Hugo Chávez “enough rope able interpretation of the facts.
MEDIA AND PR COORDINATOR to hang himself.” That could not be Laura Garcés’s letter is a perfect
further from the truth. Aside from example of this tendency. There has
Alexia Sagemüller reports that the United States actively indeed been a terrible human toll in
CORPORATE PROGRAMS DIRECTOR intervened in 2002 to depose Chávez, Iraq. That toll has been the work of the
Sabina Nicholls the Bush administration has been quite terrorists and insurgents who have
CORPORATE PROGRAMS ASSISTANT active in supporting the Venezuelan made war on their fellow Iraqis with
president’s nemesis, Colombian Presi- brutal disregard for human life. The
Randolph F. Manderstam dent Álvaro Uribe, in militarizing the suffering of civilians is the work of
SYNDICATION COORDINATOR
drug issue and, in the process, polariz- those who purposefully attacked them,
ing South American countries along not those who tried with imperfect suc-
SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES obsolete Cold War lines. Certainly, cess to protect them.
FOREIGN POLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL Washington has been successful in alien-
[
61054-8499; ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail:
frnp@kable.com; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (386)
246-0120 outside U.S.; Publications mail agree-
ment no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds):
$24.95 for one year; $44 for two years. Canada
add $12/yr. for postage and handling; other
ating several countries to its south.
Finally, Frum mentions that, because
the United States has not suffered a
major terrorist attack since 2001, one
must infer that Washington’s policies
For More Online
about his controversial defense of
President Bush’s record, at
[
David Frum answers readers’ questions
countries add $18/yr. For academic rates, go to have made Americans safer. Of course, ForeignPolicy.com/extras/frum.
ForeignPolicy.com/education. one cannot quarrel with events that have
ADVERTISING & FP
not happened. But one could venture
CORPORATE PROGRAMS that Osama bin Laden has no reason
Call (202) 939-2243. now to expose himself and expend mas-
sive resources when he already accom-
A Second Opinion
NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION plished exactly what he wanted: billions Roger Bate (“The Deadly World of
Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New of U.S. dollars spent launching wars, Fake Drugs,” September/October
Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. the total neglect of American infra- 2008) correctly identifies the serious
structure, and the loss of business from threat to patient safety that substan-
BACK ISSUES thousands of tourists who are wary of dard counterfeit medicines pose. But
$10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per staying in line for hours dealing with one of his prescriptions—that health
copy; online: ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: airport personnel. Decay and bank- professionals consider sacrificing broad
fp@ForeignPolicy.com. ruptcy are what he sought, and fear is public access to treatment in favor of
what he wanted to instill. purchasing more expensive brand-
MEDIA INQUIRIES Can anyone doubt that he succeeded? name drugs—is bad medicine indeed.
Call Jina Hassan at (202) 939-2242; Bate, a resident fellow of the American
jina.hassan@ForeignPolicy.com. —Laura Garcés Enterprise Institute, failed to disclose
Independent Researcher that his organization receives substantial
SYNDICATION REQUESTS
Washington, D.C. funding from brand-name pharmaceu-
Contact Randolph F. Manderstam (202) 939-2241;
tical companies, including the Eli Lilly
randolph.manderstam@ForeignPolicy.com.
David Frum replies: and Company Foundation and the
Anatol Lieven and Sharon Squassoni Bristol-Myers Squibb Foundation. Bate
OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS
Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400;
are certainly correct that some of my is also a fellow at the Institute of Eco-
www.copyright.com.
defense of the Bush foreign-policy nomic Affairs, which employs on its
record is conditional. Much will depend board of trustees a former chairman of
6 Foreign Policy
2008 WINNERS
Enqhmenql`shnmnmsgd1//8oqhyd+
uhrhsV`rghmfsnmHmrshstsd-nqf
1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 N Washington, DC 20036 N Ph. 202-452-0650 N www.washingtoninstitute.org
[ Letters ]
“A bridge betw
between
een the
w
world
o of ideas and the
orld
SmithKline Beecham who is currently
CAMPAIGN 2008: a member of GlaxoSmithKline’s board
w
world
orld of action.”
THE ISSUES CONSIDERED of directors.
James A. Bak
Baker,
er, III Brand-name pharmaceutical com-
Baker Institute Fellows and Experts from the Honorary Chair
panies stand to benefit substantially
Republican and Democratic Parties Examine Key from some of Bate’s proposals. For
Policy Issues of the 2008 Presidential Race
example, he claims humanitarian
groups must choose between “expen-
New International Stem Energy Forum sive, safe drugs that treat fewer
C
Cellll P
Program
g EExamines
i Explores Ways patients, or cheaper drugs that might
Middle Eastern Policies to Lower Fuel not work.” This false dichotomy
JAMES
AMES A
A.. BAKER III excludes the many affordable generic
Prices
INSTITUTE FOR
INSTITUTE medicines that have undergone rigor-
PU
PUBLIC
P BLIC POL
POLICY
ICY ous testing at the World Health
Organization and other major drug
regulatory authorities.
Bate asserts, with no supporting evi-
dence, that “[humanitarian] groups
often purchase copy drugs from China
and India that have not been tested
properly.” But estimates suggest up
to 80 percent of the raw materials
For more: used by the U.S. drug industry are
www.bakerinstitute.org
www.bak erinstitute.orrg imported. Half of these also come
from China and India, and the U.S.
Food and Drug Administration is
rarely able to inspect these plants.
Expensive brand-name drugs are not
categorically safer.
Counterfeit medicines are a subset
of a larger drug-quality problem.
Relying on brand-name drugs won’t
solve it. Bate’s suggestion would
enrich Big Pharma while leaving the
millions who rely on low-cost, high-
quality generic medicines without
treatment of any kind.
—Peter Maybarduk
Attorney
Access to Medicines Project
Essential Action
Washington, D.C.
This important new book explores the critical question for the design of pro-
posed US climate policy: how to level the playing field for carbon-intensive
industries in competing polluting economies during a period of transition. This
book is a collaboration between the Peterson Institute for International Econom-
ics and the World Resources Institute.
May 2008 • ISBN paper 978-0-88132-420-4 • $19.95
www.petersoninstitute.org
[ Letters ]
nongovernmental organizations and ini-
tially supported by the Global Fund,
was forced to shut down because of
low-quality products. However, these
same medicines were administered to
thousands of hiv/aids patients by
ngos and the Thai government. No
public apology was ever made for
buying these substandard products.
Chinese and Indian producers have
widely varying standards. The best
companies in these countries have drugs
approved by the World Health Organi-
NYU’S zation and the fda. I support these
CENTER FOR drugs, not just brand names as May-
GLOBAL AFFAIRS barduk suggests.
But problems remain with most drugs
produced in China and India. U.S. com-
panies do import their ingredients, but
unlike American patients, they can
assess if the imports are defective. Yes,
occasionally they make mistakes, and
Many people think about changing the world. the nearly 100 Americans who died
from Chinese heparin were a tragic and
Some are actually preparing to do it. rare example. Imagine the death toll if
the fda had allowed importation of
the unsafe final products routinely used
in the developing world.
MASTER’S IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
The American Enterprise Institute
We live in a time of unprecedented interaction between countries, continents, and
has hundreds of corporate supporters
cultures. The impact of political decisions, economic trends, and social and environ-
accounting for only about 20 percent
mental issues extends more broadly than at any time in human history. Today, we are
of its budget. None can contract for
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specific work. The vast majority of
The Master of Science in Global Aff airs at NYU is designed for those looking to
funding for my investigations of coun-
effect change in the international community, providing the context, insights, and
terfeit drugs was grants from the
connections necessary to do so. Our exceptional faculty—UN offi cials, economists, Ohrstrom Foundation and Legatum
historians, NGO leaders, journalists—will help you develop the kind of leadership Institute—neither of which creates a
and strategic decision-making skills you will need to make a difference in our inter- conflict of interest. As to the Institute
connected world. of Economic Affairs, I am an unpaid
fellow, and my only mention of
GlaxoSmithKline was highly critical
of the company. The funding of May-
barduk’s organization doesn’t interest
Information Sessions: me, but his advocacy of poor medi-
Tuesday, November 11, 6–8 p.m. cines for the poor worries me greatly.
Wednesday, December 17, 6–8 p.m.
Please call for locations and to RSVP.
scps.nyu.edu/811 1-888-998-7204, ext.811 Questioning
Corruption
Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel
(“How Economics Can Defeat Cor-
ruption,” September/October 2008)
rightly argue that in fighting corruption
“incentives matter” and that the foren-
sic use of economic data can provide
valuable insights into corruption
schemes. Continuous, creative
New York University is an affirmative action/equal opportunity institution. ©2008 New York University School of Continuing and Professional Studies
approaches are always needed to keep
up with the ingenuity of the corrupters.
Advanced International
Studies at the Capital
of Europe
SCHOOL of INTERN
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took place between 2002 and 2006,
and the deaths of a number of politi-
cal leaders, including Benazir Bhutto.
After Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan
managing global complexity
has suffered more fatalities from sui-
cide terrorism than any other country.
To neutralize the threat, Pakistan
needs international understanding,
participation, and support. Unless its
rule of law, judiciary, and law enforce-
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Islamists and jihadists will win. To
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port Pakistan’s economic development
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cation system.
Preparing the next generation of analysts to influence international
Pakistan faces an unprecedented cri-
sis. But it cannot fight the contempo- policy making in trade, foreign affairs, security, and economic
rary wave of terrorism and extremism development. Join a small group of peers who want to make a
alone. With the threat from tribal areas difference in the world.
spreading to the country’s center, the
world’s security is in peril. No country Master of Arts | Two year program | Fall 2009 application deadline: January 6, 2009
is more important than Pakistan in the LIMITED FINANCIAL AID AVAILABLE
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—Rohan Gunaratna
Head, The International Centre for
Political Violence and Terrorism Research
Professor of Security Studies,
The S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, Singapore
PROVOCATIVE
The Center for Strategic Advantage
American Progress replies: Challengers, Competitors, and Threats to
The experts polled in the Terrorism America’s Future
Index also see a national security dis- Bruce Berkowitz
aster unfolding in Pakistan, as militant 978-1-58901-222-6, $26.95, paperback
groups extend their authority beyond
Pakistan’s tribal areas, threatening
Pakistan, the region, and the world.
The September terrorist attack on the
Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, in which
53 people were killed and hundreds
wounded, is further evidence of Pak-
Career Diplomacy
istan’s vulnerability to these extremists Life and Work in the U.S. Foreign Service
and the growing strength, cruelty, and Harry W. Kopp and Charles A. Gillespie
audacity of these groups. 978-1-58901-219-6, paperback, $26.95
Like Rohan Gunaratna, a majority
of the index’s experts recommend a
change in the U.S. approach toward
Pakistan. Moreover, most agree with
the assessment that the world must
focus on areas such as the rule of law,
Pakistan’s economic development,
and education. When asked to name
the most important step the United
[ Letters ]
States could take to assist or pressure
New York is
Pakistan to combat militant groups
more effectively, few experts chose
increasing military assistance. Most
INTERNATIONAL prefer efforts to integrate tribal areas
into the rest of Pakistan or increases
THE NEW SCHOOL in development assistance.
is New York
What is clear to the national secu-
rity establishment is that there are no
easy answers to Pakistan’s problems.
This summer, U.S. President George
EARN A MASTER’S DEGREE IN W. Bush secretly authorized the use of
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country’s approval. Yet when asked
for their assessment of whether the
Join a community of students from 62
United States should take military
countries—from NGO activists, executives action in an identical situation, more
of international organizations, and experts in than 6 in 10 of the experts answered
technology, media, and finance, to returned “unsure” this spring.
Policymakers from Pakistan, the
Peace Corps volunteers and recent college United States, and elsewhere are now
graduates—each desiring to effect real running out of time. They must move
change in the world. Here, you’ll combine urgently to create a more effective,
comprehensive, and coordinated strat-
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egy to address the Pakistani crisis. As
solving skills, and gain new perspectives Gunaratna rightly indicates, it must be
that can only be found in the world’s most regional, extend beyond a military
international city. approach, and target the sources of
Pakistan’s instability.
· Work directly with international
—Caroline Wadhams
practitioners and scholars National Security Senior Policy Analyst
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eufocus
M E S S A G E F R O M
in Foreign Policy
A M B A S S A D O R J O H N B R U T O N
Q EU Focus
Head of Delegation In-depth treatment
European Commission Delegation to the United States of important European
One of the founding purposes of today’s European Union was to create issues and the
lasting peace among countries that had fought each other for centuries. transatlantic relationship
Not surprisingly, given that peace and prosperity are still our guiding Q This Issue
objectives, we devote considerable energy and resources to maintaining The EU and Peacekeeping:
peace beyond our borders. Promoting Security, Stability,
Through military and civilian missions, the EU and its Member States and Democratic Values
monitor ceasefires, observe elections, support police and judicial reform, promote human Q Comments
rights and the rule of law, and help rebuild democratic institutions. Since 2003, the EU E-mail to Delegation-USA-
has carried out more than 20 peacekeeping operations in Europe, Africa and Asia, either JBComments@ec.europa.eu
autonomously or in conjunction with the UN, NATO, or
the African Union.
In this issue of EU Focus, I’m pleased to share with you the
many ways in which the EU is working to help others end –
and recover from – violent conflict.
www.eurunion.org
Special Advertising Supplement
| eufocus 1 |
Special Advertising Supplement
The European Union strives for stability, security, ties by developing 13 battle groups which will be in
The EU's Guiding Doctrine— and prosperity at home and in its relations abroad. service by 2010. Each battle group consists of approxi-
European Security Strategy Supporting a sustainable peace is the first step in mately 1,500 troops that can be deployed within 15
meeting these objectives, as well as in ensuring days for up to four months, either as a stand-alone
The European Security Strategy,
that states emerging from conflict can rebuild their force or as an advance force preparing for a larger
adopted in December 2003,
democratic institutions and rejoin the community of multinational peacekeeping effort.
presents the EU vision of a stronger
international society, based on nations as active, functioning states.
Two battle groups are already permanently on
well-functioning international Peacekeeping has evolved from its traditional role of standby for six-month periods, providing the capacity
institutions and a rules-based maintaining a safe and secure environment to include to undertake two concurrent rapid-response opera-
international order, by: elements like election observation missions, support tions. Member State contributions to the required
t "TTFTTJOH UIF &6hT TFDVSJUZ for police and the judiciary in states recovering from troop commitments have been confirmed through
environment in the context the ravages of conflict, promotion of the rule of law, the first half of 2011. Future military needs will be
of global challenges and key and respect for human rights. coordinated by the EU's European Defense Agency,
threats, including terrorism, which is charged with improving European defense
the proliferation of weapons From traditional peacekeeping to police and security
capabilities in the field of crisis management and
of mass destruction, regional sector reform, from border management to judicial
sustaining the ESDP now and in the future.
conflicts, state failure, and training, the EU is helping other countries to end and
organized crime; recover from conflict. The EU employs an innova- Many EU Member States are also members of NATO,
tive mix of military and civilian operations to keep and the EU and NATO officials work closely together
t %FGJOJOH UISFF NBKPS TUSBUFHJD
objectives: confronting threats the peace, to manage crises, and to advise, assist, and to ensure proper coordination and mutual reinforce-
through conflict prevention train local officials who are vital to the functioning of ment of military crisis management operations. The
and responding to complex a democratic, rules-based government. 2003 so-called EU-NATO Berlin-Plus Agreement
problems with multifaceted allows the EU access to NATO's collective assets and
solutions; building security in European Security and Defense Policy capabilities for EU-led operations.
Europe's neighborhood; and During the past decade, the European Security and Through Civilian Crisis Management Missions, the
promoting an international Defense Policy (ESDP) has developed rapidly to EU supports a fragile state through operations targeting
order based on multilateralism;
become the Union's first coherent strategy to identify police and security management, the rule of law, civilian
t 0VUMJOJOH UIF QPMJDZ JNQMJDB- and respond to EU-wide security concerns. administration, and monitoring. Such assistance helps
tions for Europe to become
ESDP affords EU Member States a broad range of options the state to recover enough to deliver a secure and safe
more active, more capable, and
for managing crises as well as an enhanced ability to act environment, a reliable, trustworthy police force and
more coherent—the EU is a
rapidly and collectively in the face of security threats. judiciary, and a competent government administration.
global player and must share the
responsibility for global security ESDP missions include humanitarian and rescue opera- Q Police operations can entail advice, assistance,
and building a better world. tions, peacekeeping and peacemaking, and the use of training, and even substituting for local police
combat forces in crisis management. Since 2003, the EU forces. EU Member States can provide roughly
has carried out more than 20 ESDP operations—includ- 6,000 police officers, of whom 25 percent can be
ing military and police missions, rule of law missions, deployed in less than 30 days.
border management operations, and civilian-military Q Strengthening the rule of law with a properly
support actions—in Europe, Africa, and Asia. functioning judicial and penal system necessarily
backs up the work of the police forces. Member
ESDP on the Ground: how it works. States contribute more than 600 officers for
these missions.
Military Crisis Management Operations do not
depend upon a standing EU army but rather on troops Q A pool of more than 550 European civil admin-
istration experts can be deployed for civilian
drawn from dedicated national forces. The initial goal
administration missions, at short notice,
was for Member States to be able to cooperatively
if necessary.
deploy a force of up to 60,000 within 60 days, and
Q Member States have committed more than 500
sustain the deployment for up to one year.
personnel for monitoring missions, which
To address the current and future need for more rapid contribute to conflict prevention and deterrence
deployments, the EU augmented its military capabili- and enhance EU visibility on the ground.
| 2 eufocus |
Special Advertising Supplement
Credible and fair elections are vital to democracy, When there is no EU EOM, and the European
the rule of law, and respect for human rights—all Parliament decides to send an observation mission,
elements that help keep the peace. Genuine elections the observation team participates independently (or
are an essential basis for sustainable development in cooperation with the relevant international organi-
and a functioning democracy. Election observers zations), as it did for the parliamentary elections in
deter fraud and violence and build confidence in the Kosovo in 2007.
electoral process among political contestants, civil
society, and the wider electorate. Election Observation Missions on the
Ground
Even the United States government, in the wake of the
contested 2000 presidential election, requested and Pakistan. In February 2008, an EU EOM team was
received an election observation mission from the present for the national and provincial assembly
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe elections in Pakistan. Led by Michael Gahler, Member "Over the last decade Cambodia has
(OSCE) to ensure that the 2004 elections were free, fair, of the European Parliament (MEP), the EOM taken many important steps toward
and conducted according to widely accepted standards. concluded that the elections represented a plural-
democracy and in particular in the
When a democracy as well-established as the U.S. can istic process in which a broad range of views were
expressed. The public demonstrated increased public field of human rights. Nevertheless,
benefit from election observers, it is no wonder that
fledgling democracies increasingly count on impartial confidence in the polling process, in comparison to it is still a country in a post-conflict
observers like the EU to monitor their electoral process. previous elections, and the media and civil society situation and more work remains to
provided greater scrutiny of the electoral process.
Like the OSCE, the EU is actively involved in election be done. Therefore, the EU has been
assistance and observation missions worldwide. Since However, abuse of state resources and bias in the state and will remain actively engaged
2000, more than 60 EU election observation missions media favored the former ruling parties. As a result,
in supporting Cambodia in a wide
(EOMs) and 10 election assistance missions have been the overall process fell short of a number of interna-
tional standards for genuine democratic elections. array of areas including education,
deployed to almost every continent, except the OSCE
region, where the OSCE's Office for Democratic
judicial reform, fighting corruption,
Cambodia. An EU EOM was present in Cambodia for
Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) takes the the July 2008 National Assembly elections. Headed by and increasing transparency within
lead. Both organizations adhere to accepted inter- Martin Callanan, MEP, the mission concluded that the the government."
national standards for elections and the democratic conduct of these elections showed a marked improve-
process, and coordinate closely with other groups —Benita Ferrero-Waldner,
ment over previous ones, but fell short in a number EU Commissioner for External
involved in similar activities. of key international standards. There was a lack of Relations and Neighborhood Policy
The EU has deployed election observation missions, confidence in the impartiality of election authorities;
often headed by a member of the European Parliament, widespread use of state resources marked the campaign
throughout Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin period; media access was difficult for opposition
America, and closer to home in the Western Balkans. parties; and civic education favored the ruling party.
| eufocus 3 |
Special Advertising Supplement
| 4 eufocus |
Special Advertising Supplement
19
3
9 18 10
16
1 11
15
17
20 14
6
8
5
21
2
4 7
12 13
| eufocus 5 |
Special Advertising Supplement
"In failed states, military instruments It is no accident that the EU's earliest peacekeep- According to Javier S olana, the EU's High
may be needed to restore order, ing activities were in Europe's own backyard, in the Representative for Common Foreign and Security
Western Balkans. When war broke out in the former Policy, "As the main threat to stability is no longer
humanitarian means to tackle the
Yugoslavia, the EU—without a formalized inter- armed conflict but criminality, the emphasis of our
immediate crisis. Regional conflicts vention capacity—tried unsuccessfully to broker a support must be police and not military."
need political solutions, but military diplomatic settlement but could only intervene as part
The 175-member Proxima mission monitored,
assets and effective policing may of UN peacekeeping efforts and subsequently, under
mentored, and advised the country's police on fighting
U.S. leadership, as part of a NATO force.
be needed in the post conflict organized crime and promoting European policing
phase. Economic instruments serve In response to its inability to act as decisively as standards. When Proxima concluded in late 2005, an
it had hoped to do, the EU pushed forward with EU Police Advisory Team (EUPAT) remained for a
reconstruction, and civilian crisis
its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), further six months to bolster the development of an
management helps restore civil European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), and efficient and professional police service.
government. The European Union is European Security Strategy (ESS), which paved the
particularly well equipped to respond way for a unified and effective EU presence on the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)
world stage. The Dayton Peace Agreement successfully ended
to such multi-faceted situations."
Regional conflicts and state failures are among the the Bosnian war after three and a half years of fratri-
—European Security Strategy, cidal ethnic killing. However, as a study by the EU's
2003 key threats to global security identified by the ESS.
The EU and its Member States have actively helped Institute for Security Studies notes, the BiH state was
contain these threats in the Western Balkans, and the left extremely weak and would not have survived
EU has offered the countries the prospect of member- without substantial international commitment over
"We are here to help establish the rule
ship contingent upon political and economic reforms, the next decade.
of law, so that we can help protect
along with their willingness to conform to EU law and Since 2003, the EU has been the primary international
people and guarantee freedom of policy and to take on the obligations of membership. peacekeeper/peace builder in BiH, and the potential
movement. We are here to help provide now exists to turn Bosnia into a sustainable multi-
The EU's "gravitational pull" has proved to be the
fair and impartial access to justice for ultimate conflict prevention strategy. Today, the Balkans ethnic democracy. The EU's integrated approach
everybody and to make sure the rights are an excellent example of the EU's commitment to toward Bosnia combines a multi-dimensional ESDP
maintaining peace—to building a secure, prosperous, presence on the ground with the "carrot" of progres-
of everybody will be respected."
and democratic Balkan region as an essential element sive European integration.
—Yves de Kermabon, head of the of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace.
EULEX mission in Kosovo
The EU launched the EUFOR Althea military opera-
tion in BiH in December 2004, deploying 7,000 troops
The former Yugoslav Republic of to ensure continued compliance with the Dayton peace
Macedonia (fYROM) accords, contribute to a safe and secure environment
The EU launched its first military peacekeeping in BiH, and support the authorities in their fight
operation under ESDP—Concordia—on March 31, against organized crime. EUFOR Althea took over
2003, at the explicit request of the fYROM govern- from a NATO operation and uses NATO's assets and
ment. The aim was to contribute to a stable, secure capabilities to carry out its mission under a permanent
environment, and to support the implementation of EU-NATO arrangement known as "Berlin Plus."
the August 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, which
While improved security conditions have led to a force
ended hostilities between armed ethnic Albanian
reduction to roughly 2,500 troops (backed by "over the
groups and the country's security forces.
horizon" reserves) consisting of personnel from 24 EU
Taking over from NATO, Concordia's 250 lightly-armed Member States and five non-EU countries (Albania,
military personnel helped fYROM become a peaceful Chile, fYROM, Switzerland, and Turkey), EUFOR
and democratic country, where an international Althea is ongoing and will remain as long as necessary.
security presence is no longer needed. Concordia was
The EUPM—the EU's very first ESDP mission—is
completed on December 15, 2003, and was succeeded
an ongoing police mission in BiH that employs best
by an EU-led police mission, Proxima.
European and international practices to establish a
sustainable, professional, and multi-ethnic police
| 6 eufocus |
Special Advertising Supplement
| eufocus 7 |
Special Advertising Supplement
EU Peacekeeping in the
International Context
United Nations
The EU approach to peacekeeping is closely modeled
EU Relations with Regional Actors:
Keeping the Peace
on that of the UN, particularly as it has conformed
to the changing nature of conflict that is less about North Atlantic Treaty Organization
sovereign borders and more about human suffering. NATO and the EU share common strategic inter-
ests and frequently partner to prevent and resolve
In 1999, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan
crises and armed conflicts in Europe and beyond.
posed an important question: "If humanitarian interven-
Since the signing of the landmark “NATO-EU
tion is, indeed, an unacceptable assault on sovereignty,
Declaration on ESDP” in 2002, which paved the
how should we respond to a Rwanda, to a Srebrenica—to
way for the “Berlin Plus” arrangements that form
UN peacekeepers gross and systematic violations of human rights that
the basis for practical work in crisis management
affect every precept of our common humanity?"
between the two organizations, cooperation has
"The European Union has formed An independent report ("Responsibility to Protect") increased dramatically. Twenty-one EU Member
a partnership with the UN to presented to the UN suggests that sovereign states States are also members of NATO.
work together in the area of crisis have a responsibility to protect their own citizens
African Union
from avoidable catastrophe—from mass murder,
management…From the Balkans to the In 2007, the EU and the African Union (AU) adopted
rape, and starvation—but when they are unwilling
Middle East, from Africa to Asia, the the Joint Africa-EU Strategy and an action plan involv-
or unable to do so, that responsibility must be borne
ing eight partnerships in areas including peace and
EU and the UN are working effectively by the broader community of states.
security, democratic governance, and human rights.
together on the ground under some of With its universal mandate and legitimacy, the UN
The new intercontinental agreement aims to establish
the most difficult circumstances." is uniquely placed to advance global solutions to
a robust peace and security architecture in Africa;
common challenges. Since the end of the Cold War
—Javier Solana, promote good governance and human rights; and
EU High Representative for Common and the ensuing explosion of local crises and conflicts,
create opportunities for shaping global governance
Foreign and Security Policy UN peacekeeping missions have more than doubled
in an open and multilateral framework.
in number compared to the organization's first forty
years, and the EU has followed the UN lead. Since 2003, the EU has also managed the African Peace
Facility (APF), designed to provide the AU and other
Over the past five years, the EU has significantly
regional organizations with the resources to mount
increased its operational contribution to interna-
effective peacemaking and peacekeeping operations.
tional crisis management. Through autonomous
From its start through 2010, the EU is providing more
EU Focus is published bi-monthly and UN Security Council-mandated ESDP opera-
than €550 million in funding for the APF.
by the Delegation of the European tions in locales such as the Democratic Republic
Commission to the United States. of Congo, Chad/Central African Republic, and the
Anthony Smallwood Western Balkans, the EU helps lessen the burden on
Spokesman and Head of Press UN peacekeeping capacities that are stretched close
& Public Diplomacy On the Web
to the limit.
Editor-in-Chief EU Common Foreign and Security Policy
Stacy Hope According to the European Security Strategy, http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/cfsp/intro
Editor "Strengthening the United Nations, equipping it to
Melinda Stevenson fulfill its responsibilities and to act effectively, is a European Security and Defense Policy
Writer/Assistant Editor European priority." In addition to its on-the-ground http://www.consilium.europa.eu/esdp
ISSN: 1830-5067 presence through ESDP operations, the EU is one of Election Observation
Catalogue No.: IQ-AA-08-06-EN-C
the most significant donors to UN operations, funding http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/
Delegation of the European almost 40 percent of the UN budget, 20 percent of UN human_rights/intro
Commission to the United States peacekeeping operations, and approximately half of
2300 M Street, NW Western Balkans and Enlargement Process
Washington, DC 20037 UN member states' contributions to the organiza-
http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement
202.862.9500 tion's funds and programs.
www.eurunion.org
email: delegation-usa-info@ec.europa.eu
For further information: http://www.eurunion.org/eufocus
| 8 eufocus |
The Responsibility to Protect
Ending Mass Atrocity Crimes
Once and for All
Gareth Evans
340 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-2504-6, $29.95
Difficult Transitions
Foreign Policy Troubles at the
Outset of Presidential Power
Kurt M. Campbell & James B. Steinberg
225 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-1340-1, $26.95
Winning Turkey
How America, Europe, and Turkey
Can Revive a Fading Partnership
Philip H. Gordon & Omer Taspinar
Afterword by Soli Ozel
125 pp., paper, 978-0-8157-3215-0, $18.95
Axis of Convenience
Moscow, Beijing, and the
New Geopolitics
Bobo Lo
Copublished with Chatham House
300 pp., cloth, 978-0-8157-5340-7, $32.95
353
The Globalization of MARTYRDOM 104
Laos
Laos
Egypt
Syria
Syria
Suicide terrorism has truly gone global. According to data compiled by Assaf Moghadam, a Italy Somalia
Somolia
terrorism expert at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, not only have the number of Uzbekistan Moldova
127
suicide attacks around the world reached unprecedented heights in recent years, but the terror
Iraq Serbia Algeria
tactic has spread to the far corners of the Earth with deadly effect.
Indonesia Iraq Somalia
Somolia
71
Tunisia
Tunisia Afghanistan Afghanistan Iraq
54
Key:
Afghanistan Finland Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Afghanistan
37 Afghanistan
0 # of suicide attacks United Indonesia China China
China
China United States
States Indonesia China
worldwide
Country afflicted 20 16 Yemen
Yemen Saudi Arabia China Russia Yemen Yemen
Turkey
Turkey Tanzania
Tanzania Russia
Russia Russia Yemen Turkey Turkey Russia
11
Panama
Panama Pakistan Kenya India Turkey Russia Pakistan Pakistan Turkey
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Israel Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008*
CORBIS
*Through August 21
28 Foreign Policy
This Is Your Building a brighter, brainier army cer-
tainly isn’t the only goal. The U.S. You Can No
Brain on War military is also interested in applications Longer Argue...
that impair its enemies’ performance.
was the Beslan [schoool massacre]. After I saw has ended up in jail?’ And I said, ‘In Russia, people
the tragedy at Beslan, I recognized that it was are in jail for two things: for murder or for truth.’
coldblooded murder, prremeditated by Putin and
his gang. The facct that the Kremlin, with Garry Kasparov, a chess grandmaster, is a
no hesitationn, ordered to burn down democracy activist in Russia.
[For More Online Read more of Kasparov’s Epiphanies, like what he thinks could ruin Putin, at ForeignPolicy.com/extras/kasparov. ]
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 29
[ In Box ]
Development’s the Brookings Institution and
author of the study, explains
Great Depression that U.S. aid is most prone to
volatility because the funds
BOTTOM, CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, ISTOCKPHOTO.COM, GETTY IMAGES
Are you a globalization junkie? Test your knowledge of global trends,
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1 What percentage of
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Britain, has the most troops in Iraq?
outside the United States? Australia
8 percent Poland
16 percent South Korea
24 percent
30 Foreign Policy
“All the great things are simple,
and many can be expressed in
a single word: freedom, justice,
honor, duty, mercy, hope. ”
—Sir Winston Churchill
www.elliott.gwu.edu
T H I N K
A G A I N
By John L. Allen Jr.
The Catholic
Church
From the outside, the Vatican appears resistant to change and tone-deaf to
scandal. But, in truth, the world’s oldest religious institution bears little
resemblance to the mysterious church imagined by conspiracy theorists.
Today, Catholicism is attracting millions of new and diverse followers who
are embracing the church’s traditions of debate and independence as gospel.
and despite aggressive efforts by conservatives since Catholicism “politically homeless.” In the nine U.S.
the Reagan era to court them, there’s still a sizeable presidential elections between 1972 and 2004, a
liberal Catholic constituency. As proof, most opin- majority of U.S. Catholics voted for a Republican in five
ion polls taken in the run-up to the 2008 presiden- and a Democrat in four. Whether it’s a matter of official
tial election showed Catholics evenly divided teaching or rank-and-file opinion, the Catholic Church
between Barack Obama and John McCain. is hardly the American Republican Party at prayer.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 33
[ Think Again ]
Learn more:
www.diplomacy.norwich.edu/fpp
or call 1-800-460-5597 ext. 3378
[ Think Again ]
E
conomic globalization has significantly 12. East Asia’s Tigers—Restore the Roar?
influenced the world’s economies over 13. China’s Gradualist Economic Reforms
the last 50 years. Currently, techno- 14. China’s Challenges for
logical advances are leading to more economic Continued Growth
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[ Think Again ]
The classic Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church (Cambridge:
Harvard University Press, 1996), by Jesuit priest and political scientist Thomas J. Reese, is an indispensable
guide to the church’s traditions and modern bureaucracy. Philip Jenkins analyzes the global demographic
shift affecting not just Catholicism but all Christian faiths, in The Next Christendom: The Coming of
Global Christianity (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).
Catholic Bishop Geoffrey Robinson spoke with Foreign Policy about his denunciation of the
church after almost 25 years in “Talking Sex and Power in the Catholic Church” (ForeignPolicy.com, August
2008). R. Scott Appleby explains why future popes must reach out to the Islamic world and take a crash
course in economics in “Job Description for the Next Pope” (Foreign Policy, January/February 2004).
» For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related
Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.
38 Foreign Policy
The Globalization of Fixing Global Finance
Martyrdom Martin Wolf
Al Qaeda, Salafi Jihad, and the “Martin Wolf is the world’s preeminent
Diffusion of Suicide Attacks financial journalist. This book should
Assaf Moghadam be read by anyone who cares about the
future of the international system, which,
“This timely book is a valuable contribu- given recent events, is anyone who cares
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suicide attacks, terrorism, and Al Qaeda nomic future.”
alike, and provides plausible policy rec- —Lawrence H. Summers, former U.S.
ommendations to help stem the further Secretary of the Treasury
spread of this tactic.” $24.95 hardcover
—General (ret.) John P. Abizaid, former
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Command In Pursuit of Liberalism
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empirical contribution to the compara-
wars, rather than traditional international
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conflicts, are now the most likely source
—James A. Caporaso, University of
of serious threats to American interests.”
Washington
—Aaron Friedberg, Princeton University $55.00 hardcover
$25.00 paperback
40 Foreign Policy
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 41
America’s
Hard Sell
For more than half a century, the United States ensured that five Big
Ideas shaped international politics. Now, as the Big Ideas of the 21st
century are formed, just who will corner the new global market of
ideology is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain, though: If the United
States wants to remain a player, it’s going to have to refine its sales
pitch.| By Bruce W. Jentleson and Steven Weber
even eager, to receive and assimilate them. as paragon and guarantor. American power brought
peace through a combination of Cold War containment
Bruce W. Jentleson is professor of public policy studies and and deterrence. A United Nations was constructed
political science at Duke University. Steven Weber is professor largely according to American designs. American hege-
of political science and director of the Institute of International mony brought relative security and laid the foundation
Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. for progressively more open trade and capital markets.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 43
[ America’s Hard Sell ]
American capitalism taught the world how to create administration. Nor is it the case that our interna-
unprecedented wealth. American democracy inspired tional institutions are simply in need of remodeling
people around the world to change their relationships or refurbishment to reflect the shift in power and
with political authority. And American culture became wealth across the globe. Rather, the rules have
a magnet for the world’s youth. changed, and the biggest and most basic questions of
Today, the prevailing consensus in the United world politics are open for debate once again.
States is that these five Big Ideas still hold. A vari- Of course, peace is still better than war. Unless,
ety of intellectual formulations have sprung up—the as some governments will profess, war is wielded as
end of history, the democratic peace, the indispens- an instrument of national policy, as was the case with
able nation, the Rome-like empire—which, despite the United States in Iraq, Russia in Georgia, Ethiopia
their differences, share the core belief that these in Somalia, Israel in Lebanon, and others to come.
fundamentals have not changed. Even the latest But does peace remain superior if states want to
spate of books about the second or post-American prevent the killing of people in Darfur, end the
world end up in the same place, accepting that the malign neglect in the aftermath of a natural disas-
same five assumptions will still form the basis for the ter in Burma, or head off a pandemic incubating
present and future world order. within someone else’s borders? With authority more
Unfortunately, they will not. The five Big Ideas of contested and power more diffuse, what are the
the past century are no longer the sound and sturdy rules for going to war and keeping the peace?
guides they once were. The challenge runs far deeper And who makes them? Hegemony, benign or oth-
than the bad atmospherics created by the Bush erwise, is no longer an option—not for the United
States, not for China, not for anyone. A 21st-century
[
Ask the Author
Have questions for Bruce Jentleson and Steven
Weber? Send them to letters@foreignpolicy.com by
Dec. 1, and we’ll post their answers on Dec. 5 at
[ version of a 19th-century multipolar world is hardly
possible, either. There are too many players at too
many tables for counting and balancing poles of power.
Although some players still matter more than others,
more players matter more deeply than ever before.
ForeignPolicy.com/extras/jentlesonweber. Nonstate actors—from the Gates Foundation to
44 Foreign Policy
Google to Bono—are autonomous global players THE MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS
on the front lines of international affairs. Who In the United States, it is popular to declare war on
holds sway over the decisions made in a world a problem. So, for example, American political lead-
more networked than heirarchical? ers, whether liberal or conservative, consistently
Capitalism decisively beat socialism. But it has appeal for a “war of ideas” to defeat international
now split into distinctive and competing forms, with terrorism. The metaphor is crisp, actionable, and
governments owning and directing large parts of the morally compelling. It’s also wrong. Ideas don’t
economy in some of the most critical states and sec- fight wars, and any policy that follows from that for-
tors. Take energy—where, in a radical reversal from mulation won’t work. Ideas don’t go to combat;
just 15 years ago, national oil companies now own they vie for the commitment of individuals in an
more than three quarters of the world’s known oil arena that is less like a battlefield and more like a
reserves. Take finance—a supposed pillar of Ameri- marketplace. The United States is facing a global
can strength, now bailed out and backstopped by U.S. competition of ideas, and the rules of engagement are
government debt. Has the market come to need the much closer to those set out by Milton Friedman
state as much as the state needs the market? than Carl von Clausewitz.
Democracy has brought freer societies. But is it Who dominates in such a marketplace? To start,
as effective in efficiently creating just and peaceful markets are places where leaders need followers
ones? That China, a nondemocratic state, has had the more than the other way around. Presumptive lead-
greatest success meeting the basic human needs of its ers don’t issue orders; they make offers. Eventually,
people and pulling them out
of poverty in the past 20
years speaks volumes to this
point. It is now hardly an The U.S. must reenter the competition to answer the most
acceptance of repression to
recognize the simple fact basic questions about how the world should be ordered.
that in many societies polit-
ical legitimacy is a function
of performance, not just process. it is the followers who decide whose leadership they
And while the most raw and visceral expressions find most attractive at that moment. Market lead-
of anti-Americanism may very well subside when the ers don’t depend heavily on private deals and sub-
Bush administration leaves office, the “be like us” era terfuge to hold their bargains in place; there’s too
(about which some Americans will always wax nos- much transparency to offer inconsistent options to
talgic) will never return. Modernization did not bring different constituencies. And market leaders don’t
homogenization; culture and identity are powerful, ever relax or lose their edge because they know that
enduring forces between and within societies. their competitors will be relentless.
The foreign-policy community isn’t blind to these Put simply: In a marketplace of ideas, we offer
questions—at least not when they are asked one at and they choose. One does not win a market-
a time. In fact, the notion that each Big Idea is sub- place; one outcompetes for market share. And it
ject to debate has become so mainstream that most doesn’t last unless you make it last.
supposedly new contributions to the debate are real- It’s worth asking why it’s so hard for the Unit-
ly just attempts to state more eloquently what are by ed States, a country that understands market com-
now familiar arguments. But the challenges to the five petition in so many other respects, to countenance
Big Ideas of the 20th century—when taken togeth- a global competition of ideas. It would appear that,
er—create a different and much more difficult when it comes to international issues, the United
reality. The United States has not confronted, either States prefers not to acknowledge it competes on an
intellectually or politically, the profound consequences even playing field with others.
of that reality. The 21st century will not be an ideo- It took almost the entire decade of the 1980s for
logical rerun of the past 100 years. The United States the American economic and business elite to come
must reenter the competition to answer the most to grips with what it meant to compete with Japan,
fundamental questions about how the 21st-century in particular when it seemed to play the capitalism
world should be ordered. Indeed, it has already and trade game by a different set of rules. For the
begun. Welcome to the new age of ideology. United States, it was a long and hard learning curve,
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 45
[ America’s Hard Sell ]
which along the way included many dysfunctional None of these alternatives is simply a retrograde
policies and self-inflicted wounds through import version of liberalism, and none of them depends on
quotas, talk of trade wars, and near panic over pur- naiveté or false consciousness on the part of those
chases by Japanese investors of iconic real estate in who hold them. They are vibrant competitors in a
New York and California. There was even a small global marketplace.
avalanche of books demanding that the Japanese
change their business practices, laws, and culture so
that the competition would be more “fair”—that is, THE NEW ERA HAS ARRIVED
played according to Washington’s rules. It would be best for the United States to get serious
It took the decade of the 1990s to come to grips about how to compete most effectively in the bub-
with similar kinds of geopolitical competition. Stuck bling, energetic, creative, and occasionally infuriat-
for an embarrassingly long period in a peculiar ing marketplace of ideas that is contemporary glob-
debate about the dynamics of “unipolarity,” Amer- al politics. To gain a solid footing, there are three
ican policymakers fundamentally overestimated U.S. central rules that must be understood:
control over international events. More important,
they underestimated the capabilities and creativity 1) Ideology is now the most important, yet most
of those whose interests really were at odds with uncertain and fastest-changing, component of
their own. Lesser, even nonstate, powers might not national power.
have been able to confront the United States direct-
ly, but they had obvious alternatives: to go nuclear, The new age of ideology remains an age of
to go underground, to bypass American power with power. Consider, though, where the score card of
their own initiatives, to disrupt whatever they could power can change most significantly. Military and
in the U.S.-led plan for the world. Perhaps if the Unit- economic power are crucial, but they are also largely
ed States recognized the reality of the competitive predictable. Even after Iraq and the current finan-
environment in which we live—and thus under- cial crisis, the United States’ strengths in both areas
stood the creative options others invent as they will only be somewhat eroded. These are “slow-
develop their strategies for competing—it would burn” phenomena. But the ideological components
have been easier, for example, for Washington to of power can change much more radically. The
have seen the “red lights”
flashing around al Qaeda
in the summer of 2001.
Everyone competes. Outside the United States, people no longer believe that
Today, they compete around
ideas as much as or more the alternative to Washington-led order is chaos.
than anything else. The
notion of a single sustain-
able model for national success—the American rate of change is faster for ideology because the bar-
model—does not resonate with the majority of peo- riers to entry are so much lower. The costs of, say,
ple on this planet. The 300 million Chinese who lift- building a navy are tremendous while the costs of
ed themselves out of poverty in a single generation disseminating a new set of ideas about how the
have a different narrative, one that emphasizes state world works are now trivial.
control of economic growth at the expense of polit- In this fast-paced and unpredictable setting, the
ical freedoms. The Russians subscribe to a narrative five Big Ideas of American ideology were never
of “sovereign democracy,” which says an efficient immutable. Outside the United States, people no
autocrat can bring economic recovery, stability, longer believe that the alternative to Washington-led
basic security, and pride to a nation much more order is chaos. State-led economies that consciously
quickly and effectively than any rulebound institu- rid themselves of democratic freedom are no longer
tion. The hundreds of millions in Africa, Latin Amer- assumed incapable of producing great wealth.
ica, and parts of Asia who experimented with free- Charismatic autocrats are no longer necessarily
dom, democracy, and free enterprise but are poorer, believed to be corrupt and dysfunctional. The
sicker, and more likely to die in violent conflict than optimal model for a just society, one that offers
they were 30 years ago have their own narratives. dignity to people, is no longer synonymous with
46 Foreign Policy
American democracy.
The most fundamental
questions of what
counts for a legitimate
order, progress, human
dignity, and meaning are
open—and the rest of
the world has no fear
about experimenting
with alternatives.
2) Technology massive-
ly multiplies soft
power—particularly
video technology, and
particularly in the
hands of nonstate
actors.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 47
[ America’s Hard Sell ]
Consistency in policymaking is now a funda- World Bank and the International Monetary Fund
mental necessity, not a luxury. And it’s constant, that guarantees by default an American president
because the demands of soft power follow the 24/7 for the bank and a European managing director for
news and argument cycle on the Internet. It’s harder the fund will end. The U.N. Security Council will
to buy time and deceive others about ideology than expand. A new operational definition of multilateral-
it is about almost anything else. Militarily weak ism will emerge that enhances the effectiveness of
states have long built Potemkin villages to hood- action, while being candid about its limitations. The
wink their adversaries about how capable they really United States could lead in this direction, but so
are. There are no Potemkin villages for soft power. could many others, without the intellectual and
emotional burdens of incumbency.
The second area of competition will be a notion of
P L AY I N G A N E W G R E AT G A M E a just society that balances individual rights and social
The 21st-century global marketplace of ideas has its equity. It must make the provision for basic human
own dynamic. As the Big Ideas of the 20th century seem needs—food, water, and health—an explicit and direct
increasingly inadequate for meeting the challenges and component of social justice. In countries plagued with
choices that define this new age of ideology, a new set mass poverty and endemic injustice, “freedom from”
of leaders will compete to rise to the fore. And those is not enough; it also must be about the “capacity to.”
successful players will be the states, companies, indi- People are looking not just to be protected from gov-
viduals, and nongovernmental organizations that are ernment but also to be protected by government. That
capable of articulating and
implementing the new Big
Ideas necessary for societal
survival in the 21st century. Other international players have their own
The four central areas of
competition during at least strengths and shortcomings, but they will
the next decade will be:
mutuality, a just society, a compete with Americans on a level playing field.
healthy planet, and societal
heterogeneity.
First, amid the proliferation of different forms of means that any ideology that overprivileges process—
nationalism and other narrow self-interests, who will even democratic process—but fails to deliver on basic
commit to the mutuality essential to a global era? The human needs will lose. Beijing understands this point,
second half of the 20th century left a legacy of unbal- and so do some major global megaphilanthropies.
anced bargains—often clearly favoring the United The third area is the health of the planet as a
States—on issues such as nonproliferation and arms motivating vision that both inspires hope and provides
control, intellectual property, agricultural trade, and the strategic direction. The environmental movement is
right to use military force. Russia seems bent on reclaim- now a global phenomenon and no longer simply
ing some of the Soviet Union’s position of power. Parts about the environment. It’s equally about security,
of Africa and Latin America are open to the attractive economics, social stability, natural disasters, and
terms of trade China offers but not simply to trading humanitarian crises. It is a long-term goal—the most
Western dominance for Chinese. Indian pharmaceuti- vital legacy to be left to future generations. It is also
cal firms seek asymmetric rights to distribute generic increasingly in the here and now, as the effects of
drugs. Leadership will come in rebalancing such bar- global climate change begin to be felt and the critical
gains. They not only hurt others substantively; they junctures for policy action grow nearer. There are no
grate symbolically. In a global age, it is more essential more “externalities”; the system no longer has that
than ever to have a credible claim that one uses power kind of slack. A healthy planet is the ultimate global
more for shared benefits than selfish interests. public good. Systems of wealth creation that ignore
Mutuality also requires greater sharing of decision- pollution won’t attract and hold followers for long.
making responsibilities around global issues. Some Brussels understands this point, and, increasingly, so
changes will be obvious, including the reform of the do many large multinational firms.
major international institutions that reflect a post- The final challenge is societal heterogeneity, learn-
World War ii-era nostalgia. The bargain between the ing to live together amid differences of individual and
48 Foreign Policy
group identities that breed fear of “the other.” The it be liberal internationalism, Salafi jihadism, prole-
migration of peoples has combined with technologies tarian solidarity, or “sustainability”—because it won’t.
of travel and communications to produce increasingly Let’s assume the United States wants to be a real
extreme combinations of nationalities, races, eth- competitor for leadership in this new era. The most
nicities, and religions within societies. Yet few com- important thing for Americans to recognize is that it
munities exist harmoniously with heterogeneity. In really is a new game and that the challenge is funda-
some cases—Bosnia, Iraq, Rwanda, Sudan—the mentally different from containing communism or
tensions reached extremes and the politics of identity defeating terrorism. Other international players—
have been about “who I am,” “who you are,” and countries, global corporations, religious movements,
that “I need to kill you before you kill me.” In other Internet communities—have their own strengths and
instances—think China and Tibet, Muslims in West- shortcomings, but they will compete with Americans
ern Europe, Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir—con- on a level playing field. The only real certainty is
sistent episodes of violence overlap with systematic that the new age of ideology will not end in victory
discrimination to create a poisonous atmosphere. and defeat. It might not “end” in any meaningful way
The United States has its immigration demagoguery at all. “Equilibrium” and “stability,” the intellectual
and persistent racial inequalities. No major global obsessions of so-called status quo powers, are going
player has really yet articulated a compelling vision to be very tenuous states of being, and mostly illusory.
for how to manage this kind of heterogeneity—and Here’s another certainty: The next decade will
that is a huge opportunity for leadership. probably have its “end of ideology” prophets, just as
Mutuality, a just society, a healthy planet, and soci- past ones did. Beware those trying to corner the mar-
etal heterogeneity. They don’t add up to neatly packed ket with vaguely familiar talking points that brand the
“isms.” But that’s not what the people of the world coming “new” ideas with a shinier version of the
are shopping for. Smart players will beware doctrinal same old American-centered stamp. They will be just
rigidity as well as any tired claims that history moves as wrong. And, chances are, the new crop of buyers
inevitably toward one conclusion or another, whether won’t be interested in what they’re selling.
In The Post-American World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008), Fareed Zakaria argues that even as
other countries are rising to a U.S. level of growth and prosperity, they do not yet threaten America’s
premier role in the global community. For a look at why the international order needs the United States
at the helm, read Michael Mandelbaum’s The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s
Government in the Twenty-First Century (New York: PublicAffairs, 2005).
Parag Khanna claims that globalization has negated “Americanization” in The Second World:
Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (New York: Random House, 2008). In “Fading
Superpower?” (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 9, 2007), David Rieff challenges the assumption that the
United States is “the guarantor of international security and global trade, for the foreseeable future.”
»Foreign
For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related
Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 49
D ream Team
The
CHRISTOPH BERTRAM Former director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs
S E C R E TA RY OF S TAT E Street product but a highly skilled politician with political clout
Baker, an excellent deal maker and an international realist, so and a sense of the economic needs of ordinary Americans.
impressively mastered the job under George H.W. Bush that,
even today, it is still difficult to think of a better candidate. James Steinberg
DIRECTOR OF N AT I O N A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Robert Zoellick The former deputy national security advisor combines
S E C R E TA RY OF DEFENSE first-class analytical heft with tough administrative skills
The president of the World Bank has one of the best and a deep sense of the value of undoctored intelligence.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 51
[ The Dream Team ]
GIDEON RACHMAN Chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times
52 Foreign Policy
serve the real economy. He recognizes the ruinous eco- Andrew Bacevich
nomic effects of our hypermilitarized foreign policy, N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y A D V I S O R
thinks that world prosperity depends upon rising wages An Army officer for more than 20 years, Bacevich was con-
and public investment, and has the wisdom to guide us sidered one of the U.S. military’s leading intellectuals. He is
through the remaking of our global financial architecture. also a transpartisan truth teller who understands the limits
of U.S. military and economic power.
James Bamford
DIRECTOR OF N AT I O N A L I N T E L L I G E N C E Al Gore and Van Jones BONUS PICK
An investigative journalist whose 1982 book about the E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y C O U N C I L C O -C H A I R S
NSA, The Puzzle Palace, has been used as a textbook at Because global warming is going to be catastrophic, we
the National Defense Intelligence College, Bamford values need to end our dependence on fossil fuels while simulta-
wisdom and history above intelligence factoids. He will neously creating well-paid, green-collar jobs. No other
challenge convention and abuses and draw the line on nation has the power to get others to the table, and
covert action. A man of integrity, he’ll always refuse to nobody can do it better than the former vice president and
bend intelligence for political purposes. the founder of the advocacy group Green for All.
SHASHI THAROOR Former U.N. under secretary general for communications and public information
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 53
[ The Dream Team ]
KISHORE MAHBUBANI Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at the National University of Singapore
CESARE MERLINI Executive vice president at the Council for the United States and Italy
54 Foreign Policy
Indra Nooyi Strobe Talbott
S E C R E TA RY OF THE T R E A S U RY N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y A D V I S O R
The PepsiCo chair is not only a woman (a first for the The Brookings president has the right blend of seasoned
Treasury), but she also comes from the manufacturing sec- realism and consistent idealism, and he understands
tor rather than the toxic atmosphere of Wall Street. that boosting the rule of law, not pushing for hasty elec-
tions, must guide U.S. foreign policy.
Richard Holbrooke
DIRECTOR OF N AT I O N A L I N T E L L I G E N C E Jessica T. Mathews BONUS PICK
Seen from abroad, rich diplomatic experience would be AMBASSADOR TO THE U N I T E D N AT I O N S
a welcome addition to the basic requirements of inter- With her deep understanding of shared global problems,
agency management skills and an objective approach Mathews is the right person to represent the United States
to intelligence. at the world’s most inclusive international organization.
ROBERT BAER Author and former CIA case officer assigned to the Middle East
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 55
[ The Dream Team ]
cut U.S. corporate taxes, and avoid expensive social David Norquist
welfare commitments, such as running other coun- DIRECTOR OF N AT I O N A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
tries for them. Not every fight in the schoolyard is He’s my brother and he’s good. He did defense
America’s fight. intelligence budgets for the Pentagon, and he is
now the chief financial officer for the Department
Chuck Hagel of Homeland Security.
S E C R E TA RY OF S TAT E
If you cannot go back in time and change mistakes, Dov Zakheim
you can replace those who made the N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y A D V I S O R
errors with those who had the The president’s closest foreign-policy advi-
wisdom to oppose them at the time. sor needs common sense and experi-
ence. The former Defense comptroller
Robert Gates has both, and he knows where to look for
S E C R E TA RY OF DEFENSE extra zeros in the budget.
Simply put, he needs more time to
fix things. Four more years! Robert Zoellick BONUS PICK
U.S. T R A D E R E P R E S E N TAT I V E
Steve Forbes Forbes It would be unusual for the World Bank president
S E C R E TA RY OF THE T R E A S U RY to return to his old job. But he left too soon, and it’s time to
He is a committed free trader and has a record of fighting make progress on all of these stalled trade agreements.
LESLIE H. GELB Board senior fellow and president emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations
the extent that nations respond to anything today, it’s still Jamie Gorelick
power. I mean real power, especially pressure and coercion of DIRECTOR OF N AT I O N A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
the diplomatic and economic variety. This high-powered lawyer and former 9/11 Commission
member knows the intel business well, having served at
Richard Holbrooke the highest levels of the Justice and Defense depart-
S E C R E TA RY OF S TAT E ments. She’ll be very smart and very tough.
Holbrooke thinks strategically and has a proven ability to get
things done. Plus, he’s courageous and highly bipartisan. Dennis Ross
N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y A D V I S O R
Robert Gates With his strategic outlook and broad experience working
S E C R E TA RY OF DEFENSE for both parties as the chief Middle East peace negotia-
Why change horses midstream? Secretary Gates has tor, Ross would be seen as an honest broker inside and
done a superb job. He’s clearheaded and pragmatic, and outside government.
he doesn’t seem to have a partisan bone in his body.
Susan Rice BONUS PICK
Roger Altman AMBASSADOR TO THE U N I T E D N AT I O N S
S E C R E TA RY OF THE T R E A S U RY Tightly wound, Rice has the fire to drive U.S. policy in
What the markets need right now is someone who inspires Turtle Bay’s diplomatic maze.
56 Foreign Policy
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are not the healthy babies that, quite understandably, most Westerners hope to
E.J. Graff is associate director and senior researcher at Brandeis University’s Schuster
Institute for Investigative Journalism.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 59
[ The Lie We Love ]
adopt. There are simply not enough healthy, adoptable discount. Agencies claim the costs pay for the agency’s
infants to meet Western demand—and there’s too fee, the cost of foreign salaries and operations, staff
much Western money in search of children. As a result, travel, and orphanage donations. But experts say the
many international adoption agencies work not to fees are so disproportionately large for the child’s
find homes for needy children but to find children for home country that they encourage corruption.
Western homes. To complicate matters further, while interna-
Since the mid-1990s, the number of international tional adoption has become an industry driven by
adoptions each year has nearly doubled, from money, it is also charged with strong emotions. Many
22,200 in 1995 to just under 40,000 in 2006. At its adoption agencies and adoptive parents passionately
peak, in 2004, more than 45,000 children from insist that crooked practices are not systemic, but
developing countries were adopted by foreigners. tragic, isolated cases. Arrest the bad guys, they say,
but let the “good” adoptions con-
tinue. However, remove cash from
the adoption chain, and, outside of
Many international adoption agencies China, the number of healthy
babies needing Western homes all
work not to find homes for needy children but disappears. Nigel Cantwell, a
Geneva-based consultant on child
but to find children for Western homes. protection policy, has seen the dan-
gerous influence of money on adop-
tions in Eastern Europe and Central
Americans bring home more of these children than Asia, where he has helped reform corrupt adoption
any other nationality—more than half the global systems. In these regions, healthy children age 3 and
total in recent years. younger can easily be adopted in their own countries,
Where do these babies come from? As interna- he says. I asked him how many healthy babies in
tional adoptions have flourished, so has evidence that those regions would be available for international
babies in many countries are being systematically adoption if money never exchanged hands. “I would
bought, coerced, and stolen away from their birth hazard a guess at zero,” he replied.
families. Nearly half the 40 countries listed by the U.S.
State Department as the top sources for international
adoption over the past 15 years—places such as Belarus, T H E M Y T H O F S U P P LY
Brazil, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru, and Romania—have International adoption wasn’t always a demand-
at least temporarily halted adoptions or been prevent- driven industry. Half a century ago, it was primarily
ed from sending children to the United States because a humanitarian effort for children orphaned by con-
of serious concerns about corruption and kidnapping. flict. In 1955, news spread that Bertha and Henry
And yet when a country is closed due to corruption, Holt, an evangelical couple from Oregon, had adopt-
many adoption agencies simply transfer their clients’ ed eight Korean War orphans, and families across the
hopes to the next “hot” country. That country abrupt- United States expressed interest in following their
ly experiences a spike in infants and toddlers adopted example. Since then, international adoption has
overseas—until it too is forced to shut its doors. become increasingly popular in Australia, Canada,
Along the way, the international adoption indus- Europe, and the United States. Americans adopted
try has become a market often driven by its customers. more than 20,000 foreign children in 2006 alone, up
Prospective adoptive parents in the United States will from just 8,987 in 1995. Half a dozen European
pay adoption agencies between $15,000 and $35,000 countries regularly bring home more foreign-born
(excluding travel, visa costs, and other miscellaneous children per capita than does the United States. Today,
expenses) for the chance to bring home a little one. Spe- Canada, France, Italy, Spain, and the United States
cial needs or older children can be adopted at a account for 4 out of every 5 international adoptions.
Changes in Western demography explain much of
discover they’ve outwaited their fertility; others have Orphans are rarely healthy babies; healthy babies are
difficulty conceiving from the beginning. Still others rarely orphaned. “It’s not really true,” says Alexandra
adopt for religious reasons, explaining that they’ve Yuster, a senior advisor on child protection with
been called to care for children in need. In the United unicef, “that there are large numbers of infants with
States, a motive beyond demography is the notion no homes who either will be in institutions or who
that international adoption is somehow “safer”— need intercountry adoption.”
more predictable and more likely to end in suc- That assertion runs counter to the story line that
cess—than many domestic adoptions, where there’s has long been marketed to Americans and other West-
an outsized fear of a birth mother’s last-minute erners, who have been trained by images of destitution
change of heart. Add an ocean of distance, and the in developing countries and the seemingly endless
idea that needy children abound in poor countries, flow of daughters from China to believe that millions
and that risk seems to disappear. of orphaned babies around the world desperately
But international adoptions are no less risky; need homes. unicef itself is partly responsible for this
they’re simply less regulated. Just as companies out- erroneous assumption. The organization’s statistics
source industry to countries with lax labor laws and on orphans and institutionalized children are widely
low wages, adoptions have moved to states with few quoted to justify the need for international adoption.
laws about the process. Poor, illiterate birthparents in In 2006, unicef reported an estimated 132 million
the developing world simply have fewer protections orphans in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America,
than their counterparts in the United States, especial- and the Caribbean. But the organization’s definition
ly in countries where human trafficking and corrup- of “orphan” includes children who have lost just one
tion are rampant. And too often, these imbalances are parent, either to desertion or death. Just 10 percent of
overlooked on the adopting end. After all, one coun- the total—13 million children—have lost both parents,
RUDI TARNEDEN/CORBIS
try after another has continued to supply what adop- and most of these live with extended family. They are
tive parents want most. also older: By unicef’s own estimate, 95 percent of
In reality, there are very few young, healthy orphans are older than 5. In other words, unicef’s
orphans available for adoption around the world. “millions of orphans” are not healthy babies doomed
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 61
[ The Lie We Love ]
to institutional misery unless Westerners adopt and “Guatemala is a perfect case study of how inter-
save them. Rather, they are mostly older children liv- national adoption has become a demand-driven
ing with extended families who need financial support. business,” says Kelley McCreery Bunkers, a former
The exception is China, where the country’s three- consultant with unicef Guatemala. The country’s
decades-old one-child policy, now being loosened, has adoption process was “an industry developed to
created an unprecedented number of girls available for meet the needs of adoptive families in developed
adoption. But even this flow of daughters is finite; countries, specifically the United States.”
China has far more hopeful foreigners looking to Because the vast majority of the country’s institu-
adopt a child than it has orphans it is willing to send tionalized children are not healthy, adoptable babies,
overseas. In 2005, almost none has
foreign parents been adopted
adopted nearly abroad. In the fall
14,500 Chinese of 2007, a survey
children. That conducted by the
was far fewer Guatemalan gov-
than the number ernment, unicef,
of Westerners and the interna-
who wanted to tional child wel-
adopt; adoption fare and adoption
agencies report agency Holt Inter-
many more clients national Chil-
waiting in line. dren’s Services
And taking those found approxi-
children home has mately 5,600
gotten harder; in children and
2007, China’s Family reunion: After 14 months, Ana Escobar found her stolen child about to be adopted. a dolescents in
central adoption Guatemalan insti-
authority sharply reduced the number of children tutions. More than 4,600 of these children were age
sent abroad, possibly because of the country’s grow- 4 or older. Fewer than 400 were under a year old. And
ing sex imbalance, declining poverty, and scandals yet in 2006, more than 270 Guatemalan babies, all
involving child trafficking for foreign adoption. younger than 12 months, were being sent to the Unit-
Prospective foreign parents today are strictly judged by ed States each month. These adopted children were
their age, marital history, family size, income, health, simply not coming from the country’s institutions.
and even weight. That means that if you are single, gay, Last year, 98 percent of U.S. adoptions from
fat, old, less than well off, too often divorced, too Guatemala were “relinquishments”: Babies who had
recently married, taking antidepressants, or already never seen the inside of an institution were signed
have four children, China will turn you away. Even over directly to a private attorney who approved the
those allowed a spot in line are being told they might international adoption—for a very considerable fee—
wait three to four years before they bring home a without any review by a judge or social service agency.
child. That has led many prospective parents to shop So, where had some of these adopted babies
around for a country that puts fewer barriers between come from? Consider the case of Ana Escobar, a
them and their children—as if every country were young Guatemalan woman who in March 2007
China, but with fewer onerous regulations. reported to police that armed men had locked her
One such country has been Guatemala, which in in a closet in her family’s shoe store and stolen her
2006 and 2007 was the No. 2 exporter of children to infant. After a 14-month search, Escobar found
the United States. Between 1997 and 2006, the num- her daughter in pre-adoption foster care, just weeks
ber of Guatemalan children adopted by Americans before the girl was to be adopted by a couple from
more than quadrupled, to more than 4,500 annually. Indiana. dna testing showed the toddler to be
Incredibly, in 2006, American parents adopted one of Escobar’s child. In a similar case from 2006, Raquel
RODRIGO ABD/AP
every 110 Guatemalan children born. In 2007, nearly Par, another Guatemalan woman, reported being
9 out of 10 children adopted were less than a year old; drugged while waiting for a bus in Guatemala City,
almost half were younger than 6 months old. waking to find her year-old baby missing. Three
62 Foreign Policy
months later, Par learned her daughter had been these millions of middle-class families could eas-
adopted by an American couple. ily absorb all available babies. The country’s per-
On Jan. 1, 2008, Guatemala closed its doors to vasive poverty does leave many children fending
American adoptions so that the government could for themselves on the street. But “kids are not on
reform the broken process. Britain, Canada, France, the street alone at the age of 2,” Cantwell, the
Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain all stopped child protection consultant, says. “They are 5 or
accepting adoptions from the country several years 6, and they aren’t going to be adopted.” That’s
earlier, citing trafficking concerns. But more than partly because most of these children still have
2,280 American adoptions from the country are still family ties and therefore are not legally available
being processed, for adoption, and
albeit with addi- partly because
tional safeguards. they would have
Stolen babies have difficultly adjust-
already been found ing to a middle-
in that queue; class European or
Guatemalan author- North American
ities expect more. home. Many of
G u a t e m a l a ’s these children are
example is extreme; deeply marked by
it is widely consid- abuse, crime, and
ered to have the poverty, and few
world’s most notori- prospective par-
ous record of cor- ents are prepared
ruption in foreign to adopt them.
adoption. But Surely, though,
the same troubling Who’s your daddy?: Parents might never know if their adopted child is truly an orphan. prospective parents
trends have emerged, can at least feel
on smaller scales, in more than a dozen other coun- secure that their child is truly an orphan in need of a
tries, including Albania, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Liberia, home if they receive all the appropriate legal papers?
Peru, and Vietnam. The pattern suggests that the Unfortunately, no.
supply of adoptable babies rises to meet foreign
demand—and disappears when Western cash is no
longer available. For instance, in December 2001, the N U R S E RY C R I M E S
U.S. immigration service stopped processing adop- In many countries, it can be astonishingly easy to fab-
tion visas from Cambodia, citing clear evidence that ricate a history for a young child, and in the process,
children were being acquired illicitly, often against manufacture an orphan. The birth mothers are often
their parents’ wishes. That year, Westerners adopted poor, young, unmarried, divorced, or otherwise lack-
more than 700 Cambodian children; of the 400 adopt- ing family protection. The children may be born into
ed by Americans, more than half were less than 12 a locally despised minority group that is afforded few
months old. But in 2005, a study of Cambodia’s rights. And for enough money, someone will separate
orphanage population, commissioned by the U.S. these little ones from their vulnerable families, turning
Agency for International Development, found only a them into “paper orphans” for lucrative export.
total of 132 children who were less than a year old— Some manufactured orphans are indeed found in
fewer babies than Westerners had been adopting every what Westerners call “orphanages.” But these estab-
three months a few years before. lishments often serve less as homes to parentless chil-
Even countries with large populations, such as dren and more as boarding schools for poor youngsters.
India, rarely have healthy infants and toddlers Many children are there only temporarily, seeking
JASON REED/REUTERS/CORBIS
who need foreign parents. India’s large and grow- food, shelter, and education while their parents, because
ing middle class, at home and in the diaspora, of poverty or illness, cannot care for them. Many fam-
faces fertility issues like those of their developed- ilies visit their children, or even bring them home on
world counterparts. They too are looking for weekends, until they can return home permanently. In
healthy babies to adopt; some experts think that 2005, when the Hannah B. Williams Orphanage in
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 63
[ The Lie We Love ]
Meet the parents: Guangzhou’s White Swan Hotel, less than a block from the city’s U.S. Consulate, is a hub for international adoptions from China.
Monrovia, Liberia, was closed because of shocking Law reported poor Guatemalan families being paid
living conditions, 89 of the 102 “orphans” there beween $300 and several thousand dollars per child.
returned to their families. In Vietnam, “rural families Sometimes, medical professionals serve as child
in particular will put their babies into these orphanages finders to obtain infants. In Vietnam, for instance, a
that are really extended day-care centers during the har- finder’s fee for a single child can easily dwarf a nurse’s
vest season,” says a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman in $50-a-month salary. Some nurses and doctors coerce
Hanoi. In some cases, unscrupulous orphanage direc- birth mothers into giving up their children by offering
tors, local officials, or other operators persuade illiter- them a choice: pay outrageously inflated hospital bills
ate birth families to sign documents that relinquish or relinquish their newborns. Illiterate new mothers are
those children, who are then sent abroad for adoption, made to sign documents they can’t read. In August
never to be seen again by their bereft families. 2008, the U.S. State Department released a warning
Other children are located through similarly that birth certificates issued by Tu Du Hospital in Ho
nefarious means. Western adoption agencies often Chi Minh City—which in 2007 had reported 200
contract with in-country facilitators—sometimes births a day, and an average of three abandoned babies
orphanage directors, sometimes freelancers—and per 100 births—were “unreliable.” Most of the hos-
pay per-child fees for each healthy baby adopted. pital’s “abandoned” babies were sent to the city’s Tam
These facilitators, in turn, subcontract with child Binh orphanage, from which many Westerners have
finders, often for sums in vast excess of local wages. adopted. (Tu Du Hospital is where Angelina Jolie’s
These paydays give individuals a significant financial Vietnamese-born son was reportedly abandoned one
incentive to find adoptable babies at almost any month after his birth; he was at Tam Binh when she
cost. In Guatemala, where the gdp per capita is adopted him.) According to Linh Song, executive
$4,700 a year, child finders often earned $6,000 to director of Ethica, an American nonprofit devoted to
$8,000 for each healthy, adoptable infant. In many promoting ethical adoption, a provincial hospital’s
GILLES SABRIE
cases, child finders simply paid poor families for chief obstetrician told her in 2007 “that he provided
infants. A May 2007 report on adoption trafficking 10 ethnic minority infants to [an] orphanage [for
by the Hague Conference on Private International adoption] in return for an incubator.”
64 Foreign Policy
To smooth the adoption process, officials in the agent with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforce-
children’s home countries may be bribed to create false ment who investigated Galindo. “It’s not a crime.”
identity documents. Consular officials for the adopt-
ing countries generally accept whatever documents
they receive. But if a local U.S. embassy has seen a ROCKING THE CRADLE
series of worrisome referrals—say, a sudden spike in Buying a child abroad is something most prospective
healthy infants coming from the same few orphan- parents want no part of. So, how can it be prevented?
ages, or a single province sending an unusually high As international adoption has grown in the past
number of babies with suspiciously similar paper- decade, the ad hoc approach of closing some corrupt
work—officials may investigate. But generally, they countries to adoption and shifting parents’ hopes (and
do not want to obstruct adoptions of genuinely needy money) to the next destination has failed. The agen-
children or get in the way of people longing for a cies that profit from adoption appear to willfully
child. However, many frequently doubt that the adop- ignore how their own payments and fees are causing
tions crossing their desks are completely aboveboard. both the corruption and the closures.
“I believe in intercountry adoption very strongly,” says Some countries that send children overseas for
Katherine Monahan, a U.S. State Department official adoption have kept the process lawful and transpar-
who has overseen scores of U.S. adoptions from ent from nearly the beginning and their model is
around the world. “[But] I worry that there were instructive. Thailand, for instance, has a central gov-
many children that could have stayed with their fam- ernment authority that counsels birth mothers and
ilies if we could have provided them with even a lit- offers some families social and economic support so
tle economic assistance.” One U.S. official told me that poverty is never a reason to give up a child. Other
that when embassy staff in a country that sent more countries, such as Paraguay and Romania, reformed
than 1,000 children overseas last year were asked their processes after sharp surges in shady adoptions
which adoption visas they felt uneasy about, they in the 1990s. But those reforms were essentially to stop
replied: almost all of them. international adoptions almost entirely. In 1994,
Most of the Westerners involved with foreign Paraguay sent 483 children to the United States; last
adoption agencies—like business people importing year, the country sent none.
foreign sneakers—can plau-
sibly deny knowledge of
unethical or unseemly prac-
tices overseas. They don’t
have to know. Willful igno- When embassy staff in a country that last year sent more
rance allowed Lauryn
Galindo, a former hula than 1,000 children overseas were asked which adoption
dancer from the United
States, to collect more than visas they felt uneasy about, they replied: almost all of them.
$9 million in adoption fees
over several years for Cam-
bodian infants and toddlers. Between 1997 and 2001, For a more comprehensive solution, the best hope
Americans adopted 1,230 children from Cambodia; may be the Hague Convention on Intercountry Adop-
Galindo said she was involved in 800 of the adop- tion, an international agreement designed to prevent
tions. (Galindo reportedly delivered Angelina Jolie’s child trafficking for adoption. On April 1, 2008, the
Cambodian child to her movie set in Africa.) But in United States formally entered the agreement, which
a two-year probe beginning in 2002, U.S. investiga- has 75 other signatories. In states that send children
tors alleged that Galindo paid Cambodian child find- overseas and are party to the convention, such as
ers to purchase, defraud, coerce, or steal children Albania, Bulgaria, Colombia, and the Philippines,
from their families, and conspired to create false Hague-compatible reforms have included a central
identity documents for the children. Galindo later government authority overseeing child welfare, efforts
served federal prison time on charges of visa fraud and to place needy children with extended families and
money laundering, but not trafficking. “You can get local communities first, and limits on the number of
away with buying babies around the world as a Unit- foreign adoption agencies authorized to work in the
ed States citizen,” says Richard Cross, a senior special country. The result, according to experts, has been a
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 65
[ The Lie We Love ]
sharp decline in baby buying, fraud, coercion, and kid- regulations but are still sending $20,000 anywhere—
napping for adoption. well, you can bypass any system with enough cash.”
In adopting countries, the convention requires a Improved regulations will protect not only the
central authority—in the United States’ case, the State children being adopted and their birth families, but
Department—to oversee international adoption. The also the consumers: hopeful parents. Adopting a
State Department empowers two nonprofit organi- child—like giving birth—is an emotional experience;
zations to certify adoption agencies; if shady practices, it can be made wrenching by the abhorrent realization
fraud, financial improprieties, or links with traffick- that a child believed to be an orphan simply isn’t. One
ing come to light, accreditation can be revoked. American who adopted a little girl from Cambodia in
Already, the rules appear to be having some effect: Sev- 2002 wept as she spoke at an adoption ethics con-
eral U.S. agencies long dogged by rumors of bad ference in October 2007 about such a discovery. “I
practices have been denied accreditation; some have was told she was an orphan,” she said. “One year
shut their doors. But no international treaty is perfect, after she came home, and she could speak English well
and the Hague Convention is no exception. Many of enough, she told me about her mommy and daddy
the countries sending their children to the West, and her brothers and her sisters.”
including Ethiopia, Russia, South Korea, Ukraine, Unless we recognize that behind the altruistic
and Vietnam, have yet to join the agreement. veneer, international adoption has become an indus-
Perhaps most important, more effective regula- try—one that is often highly lucrative and sometimes
tions would strictly limit the amount of money that corrupt—many more adoption stories will have
changes hands. Per-child fees could be outlawed. Pay- unhappy endings. Unless adoption agencies are held to
ments could be capped to cover only legitimate costs account, more young children will be wrongfully taken
such as medical care, food, and clothing for the chil- from their families. And unless those desperate to
dren. And crucially, fees must be kept proportionate become parents demand reform, they will continue—
with the local economies. “Unless you control the wittingly or not—to pay for wrongdoing. “Credu-
money, you won’t control the corruption,” says lous Westerners eager to believe that they are saving
Thomas DiFilipo, president of the Joint Council on children are easily fooled into accepting laundered
International Children’s Services, which represents children,” writes David Smolin, a law professor and
more than 200 international adoption organizations. advocate for international adoption reform. “For there
“If we have the greatest laws and the greatest is no fool like the one who wants to be fooled.”
Law scholar David M. Smolin argues that current adoption laws provide the context for the kid-
napping and trafficking of children in “Child Laundering: How the Intercountry Adoption System Legit-
imizes and Incentivizes the Practices of Buying, Trafficking, Kidnapping, and Stealing Children”
(Berkeley Electronic Press Legal Series, Aug. 29, 2005). Ethan B. Kapstein examines how corruption
permeates international adoption in “The Baby Trade” (Foreign Affairs, November/December 2003).
»Foreign
For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related
Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.
66 Foreign Policy
www.isn.ethz.ch
Access:
Over 20,000 full text research papers and journal articles
Thought-provoking commentary and analysis
A comprehensive directory of international affairs actors
An extensive collection of historical primary source material
E-learning courses on key security issues
weather transnational dangers, and serve as the hubs sities, most diverse and well-educated populations,
of global integration. They are the engines of growth wealthiest multinationals, and most powerful inter-
ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
for their countries and the gateways to the resources national organizations are connected to the rest
of their regions. In many ways, the story of global- of the world like nowhere else. But, more than
ization is the story of urbanization. anything, the cities that rise to the top of the list are
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 69
[ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]
Dimension
those that continue to forge global links despite
intensely complex economic environments. They
Information Exchange
Political Engagement
Cultural Experience
are the ones making urbanization work to their
Business Activity
Human Capital
advantage by providing the vast opportunities of
global integration to their people; measuring cities’
Ranking
City
international presence captures the most accurate
1 New York 1 1 4 3 2 picture of the way the world works.
2 London 4 2 3 1 5 So, Foreign Policy teamed up with A.T.
3 Paris 3 11 1 2 4
Kearney and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
4 Tokyo 2 6 7 7 6
5 Hong Kong 5 5 6 26 40 to create the Global Cities Index, a uniquely com-
6 Los Angeles 15 4 11 5 17 prehensive ranking of the ways in which cities are
7 Singapore 6 7 15 37 16 integrating with the rest of the world. In constructing
8 Chicago 12 3 24 20 20
9 Seoul 7 35 5 10 19 this index of the world’s most global cities, we have
10 Toronto 26 10 18 4 24 collected and analyzed a broad array of data, as well
11 Washington 35 17 10 14 1 as tapped the brainpower of such renowned cities
12 Beijing 9 22 28 19 7
13 Brussels 19 34 2 32 3 experts as Saskia Sassen, Witold Rybczynski, Janet
14 Madrid 14 18 9 24 33 Abu-Lughod, and Peter Taylor.
15 San Francisco 27 12 22 23 29 Specifically, the Global Cities Index ranks cities’
16 Sydney 17 8 27 36 43
Berlin 29 12 8 14
metro areas according to 24 metrics across five dimen-
17 28
18 Vienna 13 31 29 11 9 sions. The first is business activity: including the value
19 Moscow 23 15 33 6 39 of its capital markets, the number of Fortune Global
20 Shanghai 8 25 42 35 18
34
500 firms headquartered there, and the volume of the
21 Frankfurt 11 43 19 13
22 Bangkok 18 14 23 41 13 goods that pass through the city. The second dimen-
23 Amsterdam 10 38 25 12 56 sion measures human capital, or how well the city acts
24 Stockholm 25 33 13 16 27
as a magnet for diverse groups of people and talent.
25 Mexico City 34 23 32 9 11
26 Zurich 30 20 8 31 54 This includes the size of a city’s immigrant population,
27 Dubai 21 19 14 44 44 the number of international schools, and the per-
28 Istanbul 32 13 34 43 8 centage of residents with university degrees. The third
29 Boston 37 9 35 33 50
30 Rome 31 30 30 15 22 dimension is information exchange—how well news
31 São Paulo 16 36 31 27 23 and information is dispersed about and to the rest of
32 Miami 33 21 26 39 21 the world. The number of international news bureaus,
33 Buenos Aires 40 16 43 25 12
34 Taipei 20 49 21 40 15 the amount of international news in the leading local
35 Munich 29 27 49 18 36 papers, and the number of broadband subscribers
36 Copenhagen 36 41 16 42 28 round out that dimension.
37 Atlanta 38 24 39 21 32
28 17 45 10
The final two areas of analysis are unusual for
38 Cairo 48
39 Milan 24 42 41 28 37 most rankings of globalized cities or states. The
40 Kuala Lumpur 22 46 40 49 38 fourth is cultural experience, or the level of diverse
41 New Delhi 47 50 20 46 35
31
attractions for international residents and travelers.
42 Tel Aviv 51 45 38 17
43 Bogotá 46 26 51 34 25 That includes everything from how many major
44 Dublin 41 39 48 30 48 sporting events a city hosts to the number of per-
45 Osaka 54 32 45 29 51
forming arts venues it boasts. The final dimension—
46 Manila 43 48 47 38 26
47 Rio de Janeiro 44 47 50 22 46 political engagement—measures the degree to which
48 Jakarta 42 40 36 51 41 a city influences global policymaking and dialogue.
49 Mumbai 39 37 53 52 52 How? By examining the number of embassies and
50 Johannesburg 45 55 37 48 45
51 Caracas 52 54 44 55 42 consulates, major think tanks, international organ-
52 Guangzhou 49 53 54 50 30 izations, sister city relationships, and political
53 Lagos 58 56 46 60 53 conferences a city hosts. We learned long ago that
54 Shenzhen 50 59 57 56 47
58
[
53
55
56
57
58
Ho Chi Minh City
Dhaka
Karachi
Bangalore
55
59
56
53
52
51
57
44
58
55
52
60
54
59
57
49
55
60
For More Online
See which cities outperformed their home countries
[
59 Chongqing 60 60 56 47 57 at ForeignPolicy.com/extras/cities.
60 Kolkata 57 58 59 58 59
70 Foreign Policy
globalization is much more than the simple lowering Kong and Singapore finished at fifth and seventh,
of market barriers and economic walls. And because respectively. Chicago’s strong human-capital per-
the Global Cities Index pulls in these measures of cul- formance sent it into the eighth spot. What’s more,
tural, social, and policy indicators, it offers a more several strong performers are emerging from for-
complete picture of a city’s global standing—not merly closed societies: Beijing (No. 12), Moscow
simply economic or financial ties. (19), Shanghai (20), and Dubai (27). The new, some-
The 60 cities included in this first Global Cities times abbreviated, often state-led, paths to global
Index run the gamut of the mod-
ern urban experience. There’s
thriving, wealthy London, with its
firmly entrenched global networks
THE BEST CITIES TO GET A DEGREE
built on the city’s history as capi- 1. London 6. Sydney 11. Istanbul 16. Zurich
tal of an empire. But there are also 2. Chicago 7. Boston 12. Bangkok 17. Beijing
Chongqing, Dhaka, and Lagos, 3. Tokyo 8. Los Angeles 13. Toronto 18. Buenos Aires
cities whose recent surges tell us a 4. New York 9. Paris 14. Madrid 19. Mexico City
great deal about the direction glob- 5. Singapore 10. San Francisco 15. Moscow 20. Washington
alization is heading and whose RANKINGS BASED ON NUMBER OF INHABITANTS WITH UNIVERSITY DEGREES, NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AT
THE TERTIARY LEVEL, INTERNATIONAL SCHOOLS AT THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY LEVEL, AND TOP GLOBAL UNIVERSI-
experiences offer lessons to other TIES LOCATED IN THE CITIES.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 71
[ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]
4. London 9. Beijing 14. Madrid 19. Taipei FLOW OF GOODS, AND THE NUMBER OF
GLOBAL PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATION CON-
FERENCES HELD IN THE CITIES.
5. Hong Kong 10. Amsterdam 15. Los Angeles 20. Sydney
72 Foreign Policy
The Mayors of the Moment
N o city globalizes on its own. But with shrewd investments
and smart urban planning, a mayor can help turn a region-
al player into a global powerhouse. Here’s how three of the
world’s top mayors are climbing the ladder:
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 73
[ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]
Beijing
The Biggest (#12) Long in Shanghai’s global shadow,
Beijing’s successful Olympic spectacle earned it
Boomtowns much international respect. In this year’s index, the city scores
as the highest-ranking megacity from a poor country. But
Beijing isn’t stopping to take a breath: Among other projects, it
19 megacities—or those with more than 10 million Buenos Aires (#33) A cultural hub of
people—throughout the world. In 2025, it expects the Americas, Buenos Aires is intent on showcas-
to see eight more join their ranks: Chennai, ing elegant design in planning the city’s future. It invests
Guangzhou, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Lagos, Lahore, $25 million each year to promote industrial design, urban
Paris, and Shenzhen. planning, and the arts. The city has seen a construction
In this year’s Global Cities Index, cities in rich boom since the dark days of Argentina’s debt default, and it
countries overwhelmingly outperform their coun- continues to draw prominent engineering and software
terparts in poorer countries in cultivating global firms. One problem city planners will need to solve as its
ties. Three of the top 15 cities are megacities from wealthier population booms? Traffic.
developed countries; six of the bottom 15 are
megacities from the poor world.
Urbanization can help cities that have already
become wealthy climb higher, while anchoring Mexico City (#25) Deadly drug violence
down those that have the unlucky fate of being has plagued the city in recent months, prompting
located in a poor state. Part of the problem is a an anticrime rally of 150,000 people in August. Its landfills
vicious, reinforcing cycle: The challenges any large are overflowing. And now, engineers are trying to avert an
city faces—how to deal with sanitation, educa- even worse threat: Low-lying slums, the old historic district,
tion, infrastructure, crime, and taxes—are much and the city’s subways could be flooded with raw sewage
easier to solve with cash in the bank and well- from its crumbling drainage system.
trained officials at the helm.
However, a few of these developing-country Dhaka (#56) With massive traffic jams and
megacities are breaking out of that cycle and figur- sewage-filled rivers, Dhaka could arguably be a test
ing out how to make urbanization translate into case of a megacity gone wrong. Local papers recently report-
globalization, while several others teeter on the edge: ed that coordination between city planners was so poor that
newly constructed roads had to be torn up because they for-
got to run the water, sewer, and gas lines first. The good
news for Dhaka: There’s likely nowhere to go but up.
Megacities
In the Index: KEY:
Megacities in Developed Countries
Megacities in Developing Countries
74 Foreign Policy
Chinapolis Shenzhen (#54)
Population: 7.2 million
I t’s the most rapidly urbanizing country on the planet. More than 170
mass-transit systems are slated for construction by 2025. And by 2030,
the country could count more than 1 billion people among its city dwellers.
Population in 2025: 10.2 million
Claim to Fame: Shenzhen has seen the
most rapid growth among all China’s
So, when we talk about urbanization and the ways in which cities are grow- cities. At some points in the past 30
ing, China can’t be ignored. The statistics are staggering: While the Unit- years, it grew at 40 percent a year.
ed States has nine cities with a million or more people, China has nearly Major Industries: IT, software, con-
100. Five are featured in the index (as well as Hong Kong), with Beijing struction, food processing, medical
topping its Chinese neighbors, at 12th place, and Chongqing rounding out supplies
the bottom, at 59th. Their mixed performances prove that even cities that GDP per capita: $11,445
develop thanks to the heavy-handed dictates of a central government can No. of Days to Start a Business:
follow their own unique paths. Around 30
Roadblocks to Development: Traffic,
high rates of HIV/AIDS, labor unrest.
Beijing (#12) Guangzhou (#52)
Population: 11.1 million Population: 8.4 million Chongqing (#59)
Population in 2025: 14.5 million Population in 2025: 11.8 million Population: 6.4 million
Claim to Fame: China’s cultural, edu- Claim to Fame: The largest and Population in 2025: 7.3 million
cational, and political capital. Host of wealthiest city in the south. An (2015)
the 2008 Summer Olympics and now important seaport and connection to Claim to Fame: Often called the
home to the world’s largest airport. the rest of the world. “Chinese Chicago,” the city is an
Major Industries: Government, Major Industries: Automobiles, industrial center and gateway to
tourism, chemicals, electronics, textiles petrochemicals, electronics, telecom, China’s western regions.
GDP per capita: $9,237 shipbuilding Major Industries: Mining, automobiles,
No. of Days to Start a Business: 37 GDP per capita: $9,970 textiles, chemicals, manufacturing
Roadblocks to Growth: Pollution, dust No. of Days to Start a Business: 28 GDP per capita: $5,500
storms, avoiding a post-Olympic slow- Roadblocks to Development: Crime, No. of Days to Start a Business: 39
down, overcrowding. traffic, wide gaps between the rich Roadblocks to Development: Air pol-
and the poor, clashes between lution, potential of landslides, drought.
Shanghai (#20) migrants and locals.
Population: 15 million
Population in 2025: 19.4 million
Claim to Fame: The country’s eco-
nomic capital THE BEST CITIES TO BE A DIPLOMAT
Major Industries: Banking, finance,
1. Washington 6. Tokyo 11. Mexico City 16. Singapore
fashion, electronics, shipbuilding
2. New York 7. Beijing 12. Buenos Aires 17. Los Angeles
GDP per capita: $9,584
3. Brussels 8. Istanbul 13. Bangkok 18. Shanghai
No. of Days to Start a Business: 35
4. Paris 9. Vienna 14. Berlin 19. Seoul
Roadblocks to Development: Danger
ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 75
[ The 2008 Global Cities Index ]
The problem for today’s developing giants like
A Clean Break Lagos (53), Ho Chi Minh City (55), and Bangalore
(58) is a matter of scale. Their populations are so
For two seminal works in the study of global urban spaces, read Saskia Sassen’s The Global
City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001) and Joel Kotkin’s
The City: A Global History (New York: Modern Library, 2005). Citymayors.com offers extensive
statistics about the world’s cities and their governments. Metropolis magazine and City Journal
are excellent, lively sources about the ever evolving role that cities play in shaping our culture,
societies, and daily lives.
» For links to relevant Web sites, access to the FP Archive, and a comprehensive index of related
Foreign Policy articles, go to ForeignPolicy.com.
76 Foreign Policy
World Economic Outlook
A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis
An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong
in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The
World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’
analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium
terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight,
balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide.
Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the
outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a
clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and
emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence
required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing
concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and
growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well
as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database
updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the
aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging
economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows,
globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.
Annual subscription: $108. Paperback. Published twice yearly. ISSN: 0256-6877. Stock# WEOSEA
By Eric Werker
diversity, resources and experience, we promote inno- offering a rare opportunity for farmers in these coun-
vative solutions and are advocates for global respon- tries to make a tidy profit. Dumping imported food
sibility.” Indeed, care has teams of experts with on the market will cut into many farmers’ incomes
years of experience in more than 70 countries, and and thus might do more harm than good. Low-wage
its efforts to tackle the “underlying causes of poverty” work programs could help people avoid hunger, but
are impressive. Implicit in its mission statement, like they might also take farmers away from their fields
those of most ngos, is the notion that care is excep- just when farming is becoming lucrative.
tionally knowledgeable about how to meet the needs Priorities, moreover, vary from person to person
of the world’s poor. But does it know best? and from place to place. A West African farmer might
Take one of the most confounding global prob- choose to forgo next season’s seeds and fertilizer to put
lems today: the skyrocketing cost of food. Prices food on the table today. A garbage collector in Jakar-
for staple crops such as rice and wheat have more ta might sacrifice trips to the doctor to keep from
than doubled since 2006, putting an enormous strain going hungry. Mexican parents might keep their kids
on the 1.2 billion people living on a dollar a day or home from school as the cost of education gets priced
less. In 2004, a typical poor farmer in Udaipur, out of the family budget. Aid agencies can’t always
India, was already spending more than half his daily predict what the poor value most.
dollar of income on food—and that was before The first step in truly addressing the food crisis,
grain prices went through the roof. therefore, is abandoning the idea that the donor
ngos and relief agencies are on the front lines of knows best. Instead of more advice or another bag of
this global crisis, distributing food and other forms rice, the poor should be given relief vouchers. The
of assistance to the hardest-hit victims. But food basic premise is simple: Give poor people a choice
handouts may be the last thing that poor countries about what type of assistance they receive. Vouchers,
need right now. In many of the worst-stricken places, backed by major donor countries, could be distributed
agriculture is the top employer. High food prices are to needy recipients in the areas hardest hit by the food
crisis. The recipients could then redeem the vouchers
Eric Werker is assistant professor at Harvard Business School. in exchange for approved goods (such as food or
78 Foreign Policy
fertilizer) or services (such as healthcare or job train- off. Products that people aren’t willing to buy typically
ing). Relief vouchers would allow families to meet don’t survive long. It is time to expose the nonprofit
their most pressing needs without harming the very sector to the same market feedback.
markets that can bring about permanent solutions. At If that scares some ngos, it shouldn’t. Too often,
the same time, they would give firms and ngos an they must cater to the whims of donors when they
incentive to provide a wider array of services. would prefer to serve those in need. Without finan-
Relief vouchers could also save ngos millions of cial support, they would never be able to conduct
dollars that victims never see. Figuring out what their important work. But if a significant share of
people need is hard ngo s’ financing
enough during a natu- came through
ral disaster, when a voucher redemp-
helicopter flyover can tion, they would be
reveal the physical able to focus their
damage. But the effects attention on the
of the food crisis are poor without wor-
much harder to diag- rying as much about
nose. Each ngo must pleasing large foun-
conduct household dations and govern-
surveys, hire experts, ment agencies,
meet with local gov- which often have
ernment officials and their own agendas.
foreign donors, and Vouchers, of
then write grant appli- course, aren’t a sil-
cations and raise funds There’s no free lunch. ver bullet. Corrup-
before it can ever help tion and fraud will
its first victim. Meanwhile, monitoring these efforts be a concern. Moreover, some needs are best deliv-
eats up precious resources. With vouchers, agencies ered at the community level, such as clean water, or
would simply follow the invisible hand of the at the national level, such as public-health campaigns.
market—in this case, the market for relief. And in countries with well-developed national
Relief vouchers would solve another problem: safety nets, such as South Africa, there may be no
accountability. Most ngos today answer only to the need to bypass functioning institutions by introduc-
donors who fund their operations, not to their actu- ing vouchers. In some cases, relief vouchers would be
al clients—the poor. Most major donors do their impractical. Aid workers are fortunate if they
utmost to make sure their money is spent as prom- can even reach those in need in a failed state like
ised. But even donors whose hearts are in the right Somalia or a dictatorship like Burma.
place cannot anticipate the exact needs of so many Voucher schemes have already shown promise.
different communities. With no mechanism for the Catholic Relief Services pioneered their use in 2000
poor to communicate their priorities, nonprofits and by setting up “seed fairs” for farmers. In Ethiopia
their donors are only accountable to themselves. A in 2004, the organization successfully introduced
system of relief vouchers would change that. livestock vouchers for sheep, goats, and even
Such a radical shift in accountability will have veterinary services. The Red Cross distributed
major ramifications. The development world is littered vouchers to vulnerable families in the West Bank in
with projects that keep getting funded long after they 2002 and 2003; the program was only discontinued
are no longer useful. Under a voucher system, if an for political reasons. Governments have long used
ngo delivered a product that no one needed, or failed other types of vouchers on larger scales: for schools,
THOMAS GRABKA/LAIF/REDUX
to deliver what it promised, beneficiaries would stop in many developing countries, and in the form of
coming to it for relief. This is why nonprofits work- food stamps in the United States. Vouchers, in short,
ing for vouchers wouldn’t have to waste funds on can work—and it’s time to extend their logic to a
expensive evaluations. After all, Pepsi does not have much wider array of problems. It’s time to give the
to prove whether its soda makes its customers better poor the power of choice.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 79
IN OTHER WORDS
[ REVIEWS OF THE WORLD’S MOST NOTEWORTHY BOOKS ]
A Fight to Protect
By James Traub
The Thin Blue Line: How a politically engaged, rather than ner. In his provocative new book,
Humanitarianism Went to War rigorously neutral, humanitarian- The Thin Blue Line, Foley writes,
By Conor Foley ism. But in retrospect, it’s also clear “The broader lesson from a range
256 pages, London: Verso, 2008 that the humanitarian corridor to of international interventions in
Sarajevo sent the United Nations, recent years is that it will always
80 Foreign Policy
as India in what is now
Bangladesh in 1971, or Viet-
nam’s in Cambodia in 1979,
perhaps because they don’t
implicate humanitarian actors
or a specifically Western view of
human rights (or perhaps
because they more or less suc-
ceeded). Humanitarian inter-
vention, for him, is a creature of
Western activism, largely chan-
neled through the United
Nations, in the years immedi-
ately following the end of the
Cold War. Thus he begins his
history with the colossal and
unprecedented U.S.-led mission
to protect the humanitarian
effort in Somalia.
Foley observes that agencies
like care and Oxfam Ameri-
ca, whose aid was being stolen
and whose workers were being
killed, pressed for a military
force. These were the blithe and
palmy days of intervention-
ism—the new U.N. force was
just then assembling in Bosnia—
and few could have imagined
the consequences of such a com-
mitment. U.S. Army Rangers
wound up chasing a murder-
ous warlord through the streets
of Mogadishu; the “Black
Hawk Down” nightmare, in
which the corpses of American sol- Foley thinks that the appetite Annan believed that Milosevic
diers were dragged through the for intervention far exceeds the planned a massive campaign of
dust, brought those consequences need. He contends that “there is no expulsion and favored a military
home to Americans all too brutal- evidence” that the massacres of response. And none of the Koso-
ly. Foley views the Somali inter- Kosovar civilians by Serbian forces vars I met a few years later wished
vention as an unmitigated deba- in 1998 and early 1999 “were part that nato had held off.
cle, not only for the country but of a systematic campaign of ‘ethnic Moreover, what is one to do
for his own profession. In Somalia, cleansing.’” It was the nato bom- when peaceful means really are
he asserts, humanitarianism began bardment itself, he asserts, that unavailing? Humanitarian groups
ILLUSTRATION BY ESTHER BUNNING FOR FP
to surrender to the logic of armed caused the Serbs to drive great called loudly for intervention in
intervention. numbers of Kosovars from their Rwanda; and in that case, with
homes and that resulted in the Somalia fresh in memory, no one
[ ]
For More Online overwhelming portion of the listened. Foley presumably wishes
Read FP’s interview with The Thin deaths suffered during this period. that the interventionists had suc-
Blue Line author Conor Foley at: He’s certainly right about the fig- ceeded, for he tells the familiar story
ForeignPolicy.com/extras/foley. ures and the chronology, but even of the United Nations’ failure to
so peace-loving a figure as Kofi heed the desperate calls from
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 81
[ In Other Words ]
Roméo Dallaire, the Canadian gen- help less, but he would have us In 2005, the world’s heads of
eral who headed the small peace- impose less. One of the few state, gathered at the U.N. Gener-
keeping force there. But Foley does- encouraging stories he tells con- al Assembly, adopted the doctrine
n’t actually say that an intervention cerns Mozambique, which weaned of “the responsibility to
would have been justified—nor that itself from dependence on foreign protect,” which stipulates that
“Rwanda never again” is a rallying aid and inscribed in its disaster- states have an obligation to protect
cry worth raising. preparedness report a determina- their citizens from crimes against
Despite claims from the “anti- tion to stop “running to interna- humanity and other mass atroci-
imperialist” left—which Foley does tional donors without first ties, and that, should they be
not countenance—states do not exhausting national capacities.” unable or unwilling to do so, other
lightly send soldiers into battle to But we should ask ourselves states incur that obligation. That
halt atrocities across the globe. whether international relations are responsibility, in the most extreme
Humanitarian interventions are now plagued by too little respect for cases, includes military action.
waged in countries so far gone that sovereignty, or too much. R2P, as the norm has come to be
all alternatives look bad and almost Certainly if you were to ask the known, formalizes the principle,
all consequences ugly. And yet we leaders of the Group of 77 at the which lies at the heart of humani-
must choose. Foley’s suggestion that United Nations or regional bodies tarian intervention, that the right
humanitarian organizations in such as the African Union (AU), of people to be free from the worst
Somalia should have sought to
“re-empower traditional commu-
nity leaders through dialogue,”
rather than beat the drums for Humanitarian interventions are waged in countries so far
military action, does not sound all
that persuasive. And even that gone that all alternatives look bad and almost all
feckless engagement saved several
hundred thousand lives. Foley also consequences ugly. And yet we must choose.
argues that both Kosovo and
Bosnia remain ethnically riven and
enfeebled states. That’s true; but the answer would be “too little,” as forms of mistreatment supersedes
it’s also true that the Balkans are no it is for Foley. That’s why, for exam- the right of states to be free from
longer a war zone and that Serbia ple, efforts to penalize Khartoum external intervention. It is scarce-
is a democracy, if a tenuous one. Is for unleashing a campaign of mur- ly possible in the aftermath of
that so very bad an outcome? der and ethnic cleansing in Darfur Rwanda to argue otherwise, and
In later chapters of The Thin have largely come to naught; that’s so no one does directly. But the
Blue Line, Foley wrestles with the why the AU is seeking to postpone principle is under attack from the
difficult question of how, or by a year the war crimes indict- absolutists of sovereignty, a group
whether, humanitarian aid can be ment of Sudan’s President Omar that includes not just Iran and
used to force political change. He Hassan al-Bashir by the Interna- Venezuela but India and Egypt.
offers hard wisdom distilled from tional Criminal Court. These And the war in Iraq has made it all
years of experience. Humanitari- largely Western-inspired efforts are too easy for the absolutists to claim
ans, he argues, should worry less said to constitute an assault on that the United States and other
about conformity to the suppos- Sudan’s sovereignty—as if the pre- Western countries will cite the
edly universal principles and rogatives and protections that moral imperative of R2P to inter-
inalienable rights that preoccupy belong to Sudan and its citizens vene when and where they wish.
Westerners than they should about had been transferred to Bashir and Perhaps that’s a real danger, but
“building trust” among donors, his regime. Are the sovereign rights what seems far likelier is that Iraq
the general public, and benefici- of the peaceful Mozambiques of has poisoned the logic of human-
aries. And the best way to gain this world really so threatened that itarian intervention for years to
the trust of host countries, he we should mount a campaign of come. Anti-interventionists like
notes, is to show respect for their deference that will serve as protec- Foley may take comfort in that
sovereignty and their domestic tive cover for the likes of Sudan, thought; others, however, will
capacity. Foley would not have us Zimbabwe, or Burma? rightly view it as a tragedy.
82 Foreign Policy
An Arab Study of Jews
By Robert Silverman
Al-Mukawwin al-Yahudi fi the opinions and interests of local and understanding. The Jewish
al-Hadharah al-Gharbiyyah readers. Among my recent discov- Component in Western Civiliza-
(The Jewish Component in eries on the region’s bookshelves is tion, by the pro-Western literary
Western Civilization) the existence of Judaica sections, columnist and university professor
By Saad Al-Bazei just like in the United States or Saad al-Bazei, was easy to find.
423 pages, Beirut: The Arab Europe, but with one major, dis- During my stay in Riyadh, the
Cultural Center, 2007 (in Arabic) tinguishing difference. As one international Arabic daily al-Hayat
might expect, store shelves in Mus- reviewed it on page one, announc-
M.P.P. for Mid-Career Professionals: This program provides an opportunity for those with Qualifications: Successful candidates demonstrate
significant public sector work experience to broaden their economic, policy, and leadership skills. Mid- creativity, leadership, a commitment to public service,
career professionals generally have a minimum of seven or more years of public service experience in and the intellectual capacity to thrive in a demanding
academic setting.
government agencies or nonprofit organizations in the U.S. and abroad.
M.P.P. for Physicians: This program aims to enroll medical doctors in a one-year training program
Application Deadline:
in public policy. As M.D.s play an active role in policy issues related to health, medical degrees are December 1, 2008
implicitly, if not explicitly, a prerequisite for many senior policy jobs concerned with health.
For more information, call us at (609) 258-4836,
M.P.P. for Ph.D. Scientists: With many of today’s most pressing and controversial policy issues
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in such disciplines as physics, engineering, information technology, climatology, the geosciences,
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M.P.P. for Lawyers: This program is intended for those who have completed their J.D.s and The Woodrow Wilson School also offers a
recognize, after a few years years of work experience, the need to acquire the analytical tools for policy two-year Master’s Degree in Public Affairs
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depending upon their interests.
phy in Public Affairs (Ph.D.).
Applicants who are lawyers or Ph.D. scientists must have completed the law or doctoral degree before applying;
physicians may apply before the final year of medical school, before or during a residency, or as a practicing
medical doctor.
wws.princeton.edu/grad/mpp/
[ In Other Words ]
W EB less be distributed in Riyadh. I was and New Testaments, but it
does political literature per se. that does not deal, even tan- demand for books about other to a bunch of places without
Their texts paint a different gentially, with what for some places? the immigration officials being
Cuba than official discourse is folklore and for others is able to say a word.
would have us believe, and spiritual life. YS: Reading is a form of
that is one of the reasons they On the subject of culinary travel. Given the limitations Interview: Alex Ely, a student of
are embraced by the Cuban arts, what you see is a con- that we Cubans face in travel- government at the College of
public. cern with simply getting ing outside our country, William and Mary.
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 87
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The Institute on Culture, Religion & World Affairs (CURA) conducts aged to apply are members of the media, staff at non-governmental
an annual summer program, organized and directed by Professor agencies, clergy, government agencies and departments, public
Peter L. Berger and co-sponsored with the School of Theology at policy institutes, and academics in higher education, as well as
Boston University, under the guidance of Dean John Berthrong and advanced graduate students.
with the generous support of the Henry Luce Foundation’s Henry R.
Luce Initiative on Religion and International Affairs. The program is taught by a combination of faculty from Boston
University and other universities around the world, as well as by
The program is an intensive, two-week seminar on special topics active and retired members of the government and public policy
in religion and world affairs. This year’s topic is “Religion and U.S. communities. Details on the 2009 summer program are posted on
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for professional residents of the United States and international
scholars whose work engages them with religion in its political, CURA will provide housing and meals for all participants. Travel
economic, and cultural manifestations. Those particularly encour- fellowships will be available on a competitive basis.
To apply, send a one-page cover letter of interest, along with a brief CV, to:
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With a copy to Ms. Carinne Clendaniel (same address/phone as above) cclendan@bu.edu
Application Deadline: March 31, 2009 An equal opportunity,
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N E T E F F EC T [ HOW TECHNOLOGY SHAPES THE WORLD ]
Earlier this year, Raj Kumar, five years of experience? Devex gives
Development 2.0 president and cofounder of the Wash- you a choice of 28.
ington-based Development Executive At the heart of the site, though, is its
sunglasses-clad rebel leaders brandishing their AK-47s—but blame. Blogging, the report claims, is an “anti-establishment”
please respect the copyright notice at the bottom of the page. activity. The EU investigation tracked sites between March and May
Today’s rebel groups use the Internet to broadcast their of this year, carefully documenting the uptick in anti-EU
grievances the world over, and sometimes even move markets. messages. “A number of viral emails, videos, songs etc. were
The Nigerian Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger created by the No campaign which were creative,
Delta (mend), for instance, adroitly manipulates oil prices often humorous, and had a lot
through colorful e-mail blasts. Many of these illicit press of ‘cut through’.” Alas, says
offices far outpace their government rivals. mend responds the report, the pro-Brussels
within hours to e-mailed queries. But the commission charged campaign was over-
with developing the whelmed by the Internet, a
90 Foreign Policy
Expert Sitings
Chris Anderson is the
editor in chief of Wired magazine
and the author of The Long Tail:
Why the Future of Business Is
Selling Less of More. He blogs at
thelongtail.com.
paul.kedrosky.com
An investor, columnist, and entrepreneur who is plugged into
the California start-up scene, Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed
blog is my expert guide to the financial crisis. Unlike many
finance writers, Kedrosky avoids confusing jargon and keeps
the tone light—even as the news gets increasingly heavy.
sethgodin.typepad.com
Text for the Cure Complete with a shaved head, Seth Godin is the guru of
modern marketing. With his Delphic insights on advertising,
N ov e m b e r | December 2008 91
Answers to the FP Quiz academia’s globalized marketplace, developing countries may need to be even
more generous to avoid brain drain to richer countries.
(From page 30)
1) B, 16 percent. In the 2007–08 basketball season, about 1 in 6 NBA players 5) B, Poland. When Georgia withdrew nearly 2,000 troops from Iraq in August,
was born outside the United States, up from 7 percent just 10 years ago. But Poland’s 800 troops became the third-largest contingent there, operating
in a borderless world of sport, that figure is hardly the highest. In Major alongside about 140,000 U.S. soldiers and 4,000 British troops. South Korea is
League Baseball, nearly 30 percent of players were born outside the United No. 4 with approximately 500 soldiers stationed in theater. Meanwhile, Iraq
States in recent seasons. Meanwhile, in English football’s Premier League, has 200,000 of its own troops and 300,000 provincial police officers.
more than 50 percent of players were born outside Britain.
6) A, 0. Since its establishment 10 years ago, the International Criminal
2) A, Canada. Facebook is one of the world’s fastest-growing social networking Court has issued 12 arrest warrants for people accused of genocide, war
sites, with more than 100 million members worldwide. It is perhaps most popu- crimes, and crimes against humanity. But as of September 2008, no one
lar in Canada, where 29 percent of the population maintains a member profile, has ever been put on trial. Thomas Lubanga, a Congolese warlord, was to
according to a September tally. The United States is No. 13 in the ranking, with have gone on trial June 23 for recruiting child soldiers. But on June 13, the
10.5 percent, but more Americans are on the network than any other nationality— court decided to halt proceedings, ruling that the prosecution had failed to
32 million, nearly equal to Canada’s entire population. disclose exculpatory evidence.
3) A, China. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, China had more 7) C, Japan. As of July 2008, foreign countries owned $2.68 trillion in U.S.
journalists in jail in 2007 than any other country—its ninth consecutive year federal debt, just over a quarter of the U.S. government’s $9.5 trillion in total
atop the list, with 29 reporters and editors behind bars. Last year, 18 of those arrears. Japan holds the most, with $593 billion in U.S. Treasury securities—
jailed in China were online journalists, with one arrest made possible through essentially IOUs from the U.S. federal government. China is next in line, with
information provided by Yahoo!. Of the 23 other countries with jailed journalists, $519 billion in securities. U.S. debt has boomed since September 2000,
Cuba came in second, with 24 imprisoned reporters, and Eritrea placed third, increasing 73 percent—more than $4 trillion—and the amount of that debt
with 14 jailed members of the media. held by foreign governments has nearly tripled.
4) B, India. It pays to be a professor in India. An Indian academic can expect 8) A, Avenue Princesse Grace, Monaco. On the palm-lined street named after
to make nearly 9 times the country’s per capita GDP, according to a recent Grace Kelly, apartments can sell for nearly $18,000 per square foot, according
Boston College study of academic salaries in 16 countries and territories. By to a recent survey by Wealth Bulletin. Runner-up Severn Road in Hong Kong
comparison, faculty salaries in countries such as Germany, Japan, and the comes in comparatively cheap at $11,200 per square foot, while New York’s
United States are just 1.5 to 2 times the national average. Nevertheless, given third-ranked Fifth Avenue is a downright bargain at $7,500 per square foot.
92 Foreign Policy
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[ Missing Links ]
Continued from page 96 reckless, ideas are sought and celebrated. This
Another lesson of 9/11 is that the United approach not only brought us the war in Iraq
States will need all the help it can get from other but also the Guantánamo Bay prison, the ero-
countries to manage the crisis. Although both sion of civil liberties, disdain for the Geneva
9/11 and the crash of the subprime mortgage Conventions, and the belittling of mechanisms
market took place on American soil, their inter- normally used to control government spending
national ramifications are enormous. And though as unacceptable bureaucratic nuisances. And
American taxpayers will bear the burden of both now, the financial bailout will bring us the
the bailout and its fallout, the assistance of reg- largest government-owned financial enterprise
ulatory authorities from Britain to China will on the planet, drastic changes in financial reg-
be indispensable. In fact, a lesson from 9/11 is ulations, and a banking system that will bear
that coordination at technical levels may be more little resemblance to what it was just a few
important than the rhetorical statements of heads months ago.
of state. After 9/11, while the U.S. Congress was The search for a new paradigm to replace
replacing its cafeteria French fries with “free- pre-crash beliefs and institutions is leading many
N ov e m b e r | D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 8 95
[ MISSING LINKS ]
By Moisés Naím
T
and unprecedented as the 9/11 attacks. Beyond that, the two calamities are very different; the financial
crash will undoubtedly have broader consequences, hurting more people in more countries. Yet, 9/11
he global financial meltdown is as surprising
and its aftermath continue to offer a case study in some pitfalls to avoid when catastrophe hits.
Perhaps the most important lesson from 9/11 is Moreover, as in Iraq, where the thorniest prob-
that the U.S. reaction to the attacks had more lems surfaced after a successful military takeover,
profound consequences than the attacks them- post-bailout management will be critical. Iraq’s
selves. Shocks such as 9/11 are bound to nightmare was amplified by mistakes made in the
spark—indeed require—substantial govern- strategy, staffing, execution, and control of the
mental reactions, but the consequences of those post-invasion efforts. Similarly, the financial res-
reactions linger well beyond the initial event. cue could be fatally undermined by mistakes in
This lesson will apply to the current crash: The the disbursement of funds or even in the staffing
laws, institutions, constraints, and incentives of the agencies in charge of implementing the
engendered by the bailout will mold our lives long bailout. One of the legacies of 9/11, for example,
after the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis is the Department of Homeland Security, a
have dissipated. The danger is that dispropor- bureaucratic behemoth that has become a text-
tionate or ill-conceived governmental responses book example of a failed reorganization doomed
may only exacerbate problems. by vague congressional directives adopted in
Consider the unintended fallout from the haste. A similar bureaucratic monster, driven by
invasion of Iraq: an emboldened Iran, the Tal- the same panicked impulses, may emerge as a
iban’s resurgence, and the diminished ability of result of this financial crisis.
the United States to lead in times of global crisis. Continued on page 95
FOREIGN POLICY (ISSN 0015-7228), November/December 2008, issue number 169. Published bimonthly in January, March, May, July, September, and November by Washingtonpost.Newsweek
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96 Foreign Policy
World’s Most Valuable
Timepiece Disappears
B
ack in 1933, the single most important are assembled entirely by hand and then tested price. Many fine 27-jewel auto-
watch ever built was engineered for a quiet for over 15 days on Swiss calibrators to ensure matics that are on the market
millionaire collector named Henry accuracy. The watches are then reinspected in today are usually priced well
Graves. It took over three years and the most the United States upon their arrival. over $2,000 dollars, but you
advanced horological technique to create the What makes rare watches rare? can enter the rarified world of The face of the
multifunction masterpiece. This one-of-a-kind fine watch collecting for under original 1930’s
Business Week states it best…“It’s the complica-
watch was to become the most coveted piece $100. You can now wear a Graves timepiece
tions that can have the biggest impact on price.” from the
in the collection of the Museum of Time near millionaire’s watch but still
(Business Week, July, 2003). The four interior Museum of Time.
Chicago. Recently this ultra-rare innovation keep your millions in your vest
complications on our Graves™ watch display
was auctioned off for the record price of pocket. Try the handsome Graves ‘33 timepiece
the month, day, date and the 24 hour clock
$11,030,000 by Sotheby’s to a secretive risk free for 30 days. If you are not thrilled with
graphically depicts the sun and the moon. The
anonymous collector. Now the watch is locked the quality and rare design, please send it back
innovative engine for this timepiece is powered
away in a private vault in an unknown location. for a full refund of the purchase price.
by the movement of the body as the automatic
We believe that a classic like this
should be available to true watch
rotor winds the mainspring. It never Not Available in Stores
needs batteries and never needs to be Call now to take advantage of this
aficionados, so Stauer replicated
manually wound. The precision limited offer.
the exact Graves design in the
crafted gears are “lubricated” by 27 Stauer Graves™ ‘33 Wristwatch • $99 +S&H
limited edition Graves ‘33.
rubies that give the hands a smooth or 3 credit card payments of $33 +S&H
The antique enameled face and sweeping movement. And the watch
Bruguet hands are true to the is tough enough to stay water resistant 800-859-1736
original. But the real beauty of to 5 atmospheres. The movement is Promotional Code GRV902-04
this watch is on the inside. We covered by a 2-year warranty. Please mention this code when you call.
replicated an extremely complicated 27 jewels and 210 Not only have we emulated this To order by mail, please call for details.
automatic movement with 27 hand-assembled stunning watch of the 1930s but just 14101 Southcross Drive W.,
jewels and seven hands. There parts drive this as surprising, we’ve been able to build Dept. GRV902-04
are over 210 individual parts that classic masterpiece. this luxury timepiece for a spectacular Burnsville, Minnesota 55337