QUIRKS
India - FMCG of the quarter
10 August 2020
Mixed signals on pipeline inventory
We are starting a series called “Quirks of the Quarter” in which
we analyse the quirky/interesting issues from the quarterly
results, and its implication for the future. In this first edition we
explore ten themes including pipeline inventory movement,
changes in consumption patterns (HI, soaps), quirky gross-
margin (GM) movements and effect of new launches on sales.
1. Channel inventory – Mixed bag: HUL and Bajaj Consumer have
mentioned an increase in distributor inventory during the quarter, while
Dabur and Emami have indicated inventory reduction. Other companies
have largely maintained status quo on inventory. September-quarter
numbers can be good, as there is scope to increase inventory (although
most companies have stated that they are comfortable at current
levels), not only at the distributor level but also on the retailer front.
2. Large packs or small packs? According to Kantar, the frequency of
store visits has gone down, while the ticket sizes have gone up.
However, this has not led to higher salience of large packs. In fact, HUL
mentioned that small-pack salience has increased. There are many
mixed signals on this subject, which is important, as the margin profile
for small packs is lower. Read our report to find out.
3. HI revival – Real or a mirage? Both GCPL and JYL sound very
positive on the HI category, on the back of high growth during the
quarter; however, Jan-Jun 2020 growth is only 2% YoY. We believe that
growth in the near term would log in double digits, and stabilise at 7-
8% thereafter vs the low single-digit growth clocked in the past 4 years.
4. HUL - Margins under pressure: Gross margins for the quarter
declined 212bps, despite the increasing net price over the March
quarter. Contrary to popular perception, this was not due to a big
decline in skincare (this was offset by HFD), but on account of inflation
in PFAD and tea. However, this still does not explain the 270bps, which
we believe is due to a combination of Covid-related costs and change in
mix. In our view, gross margins will remain under pressure, even in
2QFY21.
Percy Panthaki percy.panthaki@iiflcap.com Avi Mehta, CFA | avi.mehta@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4662 91 22 4646 4650
1QFY21
5. Tata Consumer – Gross margin expansion, despite tea
inflation: Tata Consumer reported 316-bps GM expansion DDthis
MMM quarter,
YYYY
despite high cost inflation in tea vs HUL, which in our estimate saw
~1,000-bps GM contraction. Higher proportion of South Indian teas and
the low-cost old inventory helped. MRP hikes and moderation in input
prices, as production increases, will limit the GM damage in future.
6. Marico – Disproportionate impact of April: Sales for the quarter
seem poor, especially in VAHO, due to the steep decline in April, which
typically has high weightage in the quarter. Primary sales growth for
coming quarters can be robust, due to the low base and absence of the
usual pipeline fill, in Q1 this year.
7. Dabur – New products to the rescue: Dabur has been very active
in launching new products on the heath, hygiene and immunity
platform, and we commend its proactive approach. But excluding this,
and Chyawanprash growth, sales traction for the quarter is quite poor –
domestic/international/consol sales, adjusted for these, declined
18%/30%/23% instead, and reported decline stood at 7%/22%/13%.
8. GCPL – Shift in consumer preference for soaps: GCPL reported
decline of 2% in the soaps segment despite Q4FY20 decline of 23%. We
believe this is due to consumer preference shift towards germ-
protection soaps in Covid times. GCPL will have to quickly launch new
variants or include germ protection as one of the platforms of its
existing brands, in addition to the recent launch of a germ-protection
soap under the Protekt and Cinthol brand.
9. Emami – July sales, an indicator of the road ahead? The
company has reported double-digit growth in the July quarter. However,
the month typically has a high salience of balms, and the balms
category for Emami is witnessing high growth. Therefore, we would be
circumspect in extrapolating this growth. Low single-digit growth over
July-Dec YoY will be a fair achievement, in our view.
10. ITC – Boost from other income: ‘Other income’ increased 45%
YoY, boosting PBT growth by 600bps. In our view, this may be due to
MTM gains on yield reduction, and higher corpus. But other income
could moderate going ahead, depressing overall profits, as a lower yield
will reduce recurring income and dividend pay-out will reduce corpus.
Sameer Gupta | sameer.gupta@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4672

Channel inventory – Mixed bag
In the results conference calls, we queried companies on their
pipeline inventory. While most companies mentioned that giving an
estimate of the pipeline in retail trade is difficult, they did give us
some indication on the inventory size with distributors.
1. Companies such as HUL and Bajaj Consumer have seen an
increase in distributor inventory; hence, the secondary-sales
decline is higher than the primary-sales decline (or secondary
sales growth is lower than primary sales growth).
2. Companies such as Dabur and Emami have witnessed a
decline in distributor days; hence, the secondary-sales decline
is lower than the primary-sales decline.
3. Most other companies have largely maintained their inventory
status.
Companies where distributor days were higher than required are
taking this opportunity to reduce inventory days. This would also
help improve ROI for the distributor.
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India - FMCG
Figure 1: Company-wise commentary on the impact of channel up-stocking or down-
stocking during the quarter
Comments on channel up-stocking or down-stocking
Distributor inventory impacted by 6% in March, so channel up-stocking
HUL
impact in 1Q is also 6%.
Demand has been consistently strong in all three months of the quarter.
In fact, distributor stock “reduced to almost half of what it used to be”
Britannia
(however, we believe this statement by the company refers to a period of
several quarters, with only a minor movement during 1QFY21).
The distributor pipeline, which used to be 21-22 days, has now corrected
to 16 days. The secondary-sales decline has been 5% vs. primary-sales
Dabur decline of 7%. Secondary-sales growth in India was seen trending at ~7-
8% in June and ~5-6% in July, despite HoReCa, institutions, CSD and
modern trade being under pressure.
Primary sales mirrored secondary sales in absolute terms in India.
GCPL Distributor inventory at the end of June is lower than that seen in the
past few years.
Secondaries have been in line with the primaries. There is probably no
element of channel up-stocking in 1QFY21, as the trade up-stocking
Marico
effect would have been offset by i) servicing a lower number of outlets
(70-75% of normal), and ii) weakness in modern trade and CSD channels.
Company said there was pantry loading as well as retailer re-stocking in
Tata Consumer
its international business. No comments were made regarding India.
Primary growth is equal to secondary growth. There was no element of
up-stocking; distributor inventory is actually lower vs. pre Covid (this
Jyothy Labs
seems to be a comment directed at a longer period, and not necessarily a
calling out a change in 1Q).
Distributor inventory reduced, from 29 days at the start of 1Q vs 19 days
Emami at the end of 1Q. The primary-sales decline is 26%, but the secondary
sales decline is limited to 15%.
Distributor stock, which was 19 days at the end of March, has gone up to
Bajaj Consumer
26 days in 1Q. So, the channel up-stocking impact is 7 days (8%).
Agro Tech Under-shipped in Sundrop oils in the last week of March and the whole
Foods of April; hence, May has an element of channel up-stocking.
Source: Company, IIFL Research
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 India - FMCG

The way ahead

As many companies have not up-stocked inventory, it is possible
that near-term primary growth may be good. Moreover,
companies have not commented on retail up-stocking, mainly on
account of lack of clarity. Even if there is no distributor up-
stocking, it is possible that there is retail up-stocking in the near
term. Sales growth for 2QFY21, therefore, needs to be looked at
with caution – there is a possibility that it may be higher than
underlying demand and, if so, sales will slump in 3QFY21.

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 India - FMCG

Large packs or small packs? Figure 3: Average number of trips made to the store decreased during the Covid period

Mar-May '18 Mar-May '19 Mar-May '20

As per Kantar Worldpanel, the number of trips consumers made to 30
Avg no of trips 26
stores pre-Covid was on the increase – a rise was seen, from 118 trips
25 23 23
per year MAT 2018 to 139 trips per year MAT 2020.
20
Figure 2: Average number of trips to the store had seen an increase in the past two
14 13
years 15
11 11
145 10 10
139 10
140
Avg store trips
5
135
130 128 0
Personal care Home care Food & beverages
125
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, IIFL Research
120 118

115 Figure 4: Avg quantity purchased per trip has seen an increase during the Covid period

110 Mar-May '18 Mar-May '19 Mar-May '20

105 1,400
Avg qty bought per trip (gm/ml) 1223 1172
MAT Feb '18 MAT Feb '19 MAT Feb '20 1,200 1041
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, IIFL Research 1,000
800 689 663
587
However, this trend reversed post Covid, with the number of trips falling 600
across categories and, consequently, the purchase-quantity per trip 400
seeing an increase. 158 151
200 128

0
Personal care Home care Food & beverages
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, IIFL Research

From the aforementioned consumer behaviour, one is likely to assume

that large-pack sales have picked up; but the reality is far more
complex. At first look, companies’ statements given in the results
conference calls seem heterogeneous − Companies mention sales of
both small packs and large packs going up.

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 India - FMCG

Figure 5: Companies such as HUL, Marico and JYL have highlighted increase in demand The way ahead
for small packs towards the quarter-end We believe that large-pack salience will normalise fairly soon – in
Company Commentary on consumer behaviour pertaining to pack sizes fact, it has already normalised in most cases. Small-pack salience
When there was a significant supply constraint and only a few factories has increased and may actually take longer to normalise, as it is
running, the focus was primarily on large packs in detergents. driven by income impact and the inability to make a certain initial
The frequency of purchase has gone up. So there are more trips to the outlay. Small packs, typically, entail lower margins and, therefore, a
HUL grocers now. Secondly, the company is seeing many consumers gravitate higher contribution for small packs is negative for margins. However,
towards low price-point packs, which is a very clear phenomenon. the problem is not insurmountable; companies will be able to offset
In some urban areas, large packs and large value-consumption items have the impact with cost-saving measures.
come into play.
The company was actually focussing only on large packs in the first two
Marico months, because of production constraint. It is now seeing a significant
traction in the small packs.
In rural and semi urban areas, the company is seeing increased demand for
JYL
low-unit packs of Rs5 and Rs10, across brands.
Bajaj With frequency of store visits going down, demand for large-pack sizes is
Consumer higher vs. small-pack sizes.
Source: Company, IIFL Research

This is the sense that we make from these statements

1. In the initial part of the lockdown, companies focussed on large
packs, but towards the second half of the quarter, there was no
extra focus on such packs.
2. Large packs were mostly an urban phenomenon, even during the
early part of the lockdown.
3. In rural areas, salience of small packs actually went up. Towards the
latter part of the quarter, small packs may have witnessed higher
salience in the low-income micro markets of urban areas, as job
losses resulted in consumers focussing on access price-packs even
more than earlier.
4. Sales of large packs may have gone up to the extent that e-
commerce sales for most companies increased and, in this channel,
salience of large packs would be higher. However, e-commerce
contribution, even after doubling YoY, is rather small, at 5% or
lower.

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HI revival – Real or a mirage?
The HI category has seen decent growth in Q1FY21 for both, GCPL
(27%) and by JYL (151%). However, if we look at total growth for
the Jan-Jun 2020 period, it comes to 2% for both the companies.
Figure 6: Sales growth in HI over Jan-Jun ’20 is only 2% for both GCPL and Jyothy Labs
HI sales growth 4QFY20 1QFY21
GCPL -16.0% 27.0%
JYL -35.9% 151.1%
Source: Company, IIFL Research
Companies, on the other hand, have been posting a bullish
commentary on the HI category.
GCPL management, in its 1QFY21 concall stated: “One of the biggest
growth pivots for us has been the resurgence in household insecticide,
which grew at 27%. We are reaping the benefits of a very strong
innovation pipeline and product portfolio, serving consumers at all
price points. Consumers are also, at a time like this, extremely
concerned about their health and insect-borne diseases like malaria
and dengue. So, we are also investing more behind consumer
education on disease prevention.”
JYL management, in its 1QFY21 concall stated: “Household
insecticides, we have seen a healthy growth in sales of all the
constituent which is coil, liquid vaporisers, combi machines, which one
can attribute to extended season. This year right till May 15th
mosquito season was there and the consumers were picking up. And
also consumers have adopted a more cautious and a preventive
approach to health.” and “Now, government has put certain
restrictions and we're seeing reduce impact of those illegal incense
sticks and but both coils and liquids have been doing well.”
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India - FMCG
So how should one interpret the quarterly numbers? Is the revival
real or only an illusion? To answer this, we look at a few factors
driving the huge growth in 1QFY21:
1. A good season in North India due to the prevalence of
dengue/chickungunia.
2. Spillover from the last 10 days of March, when companies were
not able to ship due to the lockdown.
Jan-Jun 2020 3. Increased health consciousness in the wake of Covid-19, as
2.3% consumers strive to avoid doctor visits.
1.8% 4. Decline in illegal incense sticks, a business that finds it difficult to
operate in the lockdown environment. Also, there has been an
increase in the customs duty on bamboo, which is used for the
production of incense sticks.
We believe that growth may continue in double digits in the near
term. However, after a couple of quarters, illegal incense sticks will
revive from the current low base (although they may find it difficult
to recoup the entire lost market share). Also, health concerns would
not be as fastidious as they are today, once Covid recedes; hence,
growth may moderate and settle at a lower level, albeit slightly
higher than what it has been in the past few years.
HI sales growth, over the past few years, has averaged at only
1.5%. While it may revive to double digits in the near term, we
believe it will settle at 7-8%, which is higher than the historical
average, but lower than the growth expected in the near future.
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 India - FMCG

Figure 7: GCPL’s HI has witnessed lacklustre growth in the past four years

16%
13.4% GCPL - HI sales growth
14%
12%
9.4%
10%
8%
6%
4% 3.0%
1.7% 1.5%
2%
0%
-2% -0.4%
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 9MFY20

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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 India - FMCG

HUL – Huge gross-margin impact Figure 9: The difference between value and volume growth has swung by 300bps in
1QFY21 vs. 4QFY20

HUL’s gross margin declined by 212bps this quarter, which is quite Volume growth Value growth
10%
surprising because:
5%
1. Other companies have not seen material GM contraction
Difference between value and
Difference between value and
0% volume similar at +200bps in
volume has swung from
Figure 8: Gross margin contraction in HUL is among the highest in our coverage -200bps to +100bps
both quarters
companies
-5%
400 bps 316
300 -10%
200 102 113 126
56 -15%
100 3 33 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21
0
(100) Source: Company, IIFL Research
(200)
(300) (224) (212)
(182) (181) On account of the lockdown and the consequent supply constraints,
(400) (330) all FMCG companies withdrew promotions/ads. It seems HUL also
did so because it clocked 1% price growth (-7% FMCG sales growth
Colgate

VBL
GCPL

Marico

Dabur
Nestle

ATFL
JYL

Britannia
HUL
Bajaj Con

Tata Cons
vs -8% UVG growth) in 1QFY21 vs a 2% decline in 4QFY20, i.e. in
the past few months, ~300bps of promotions were reversed or price
increases taken.
Source: Company, IIFL Research; Note: Standalone data for GCPL, Marico, Dabur and Tata Consumer

3. Input costs, except for tea and PFAD, were benign

2. The margin deflation is despite lower promotional PFAD (palm fatty acid distillate) inflation for the June quarter was
intensity leading to better net pricing. 35% YoY vs 49% YoY in the March quarter, in which gross
margin was not impacted (142bps expansion YoY); hence, it is
surprising that the June quarter was impacted with lower YoY
inflation.

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 India - FMCG

Figure 10:PFAD inflation moderated in 1QFY21, while crude oil prices continue to be ex GSK. This would translate into a 130-bps gross margin impact at
benign the company level.
PFAD Brent Crude
80% Figure 11: Ebit margin for the food & refreshments division would have contracted by
YoY inflation in Rs terms ~560bps in 1QFY21
60%
(Rs m) 1QFY20 1QFY21
40% Sales
20% Foods & refreshments 19,500 29,580
0% GSK 11,318 11,884
Food & refreshments ex GSK 19,500 17,696
-20%
-40% Segment Ebit
-60% Foods & refreshments 3,790 5,820
2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 GSK 2,608 3,373
Food & refreshments ex GSK 3,790 2,447
Source: Company, IIFL Research
- margin 19.4% 13.8%
Moreover, there was an increase in soap prices, effected in the latter Change (bps) -561
part of 4QFY20, which would have taken full weightage in the June Source: Company, IIFL Research; Note: The GSK segment Ebit is calculated by deriving organic Ebit
for HUL in 1QFY21 (170bps contraction)
quarter.
Figure 12:Sharp inflation in North India tea prices in 1QFY21
Vegetable oil derivatives in our estimate account for ~7% of HUL’s
sales. A 25% increase in these would account for 175bps of sales. North India South India
250
However, with the price increase, we believe that the margin hit 219
would be lower. A ~100-150bps gross margin hit on account of PFAD Rs/kg
200
is possible. 154 151
150
Tea prices have, indeed, seen massive inflation (North India tea 106 106
98
prices were Rs219/kg in 1QFY21 vs. Rs151 in the base quarter). We 100
calculate that the food & refreshments segment Ebit margin,
excluding the GSK merger, fell by 560bps. This is including a ~70% 50
fall in ice-creams which would have led to huge operating
deleverage in the segment; on the other hand, there would be 0
benefits of operating leverage in tea/coffee. The gross margin hit 1QFY19 1QFY20 1QFY21
would have been at the same level as the Ebit margin hit, but we
conservatively estimate a 750-bps gross margin hit in refreshments Source: Company, IIFL Research

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 India - FMCG

4. HFD made up for the skin-care margin-mix impact

Skin care and colour cosmetics, which are high gross-margin The gross margin decline has been 212bps this quarter and, in the
categories, declined 45%; this would have resulted in an adverse absence of reduction in promotions, would have been 511bps. Of
margin mix for the company. However, the addition of HFD, another this, ~250bps is explained by higher tea and PFAD prices. But what
high-margin category, would have completely offset this impact, as explains the rest? The reasons could be:
per our calculation. 1. Mix change, apart from the skin care-HFD interplay. During the
lockdown, the company sold more of the smaller SKUs, which
Figure 13: Adverse mix impact on the gross margin is completely offset by addition of entail lower margin. Moreover, in soaps, there was a shift
the HFD portfolio towards the germ-protection segment, which also entails lower
Contribution Gross Gross margin.
in base margin in Growth in Contribution margin in 2. Covid-related costs in respect of compliance and health.
quarter 1QFY20 1QFY21 in 1QFY21 1QFY21
Skin/Deo/Colour cosmetics 15% 75% -45% 7.8% 75% The way ahead
Ice cream / out of home 5% 55% -69% 1.5% 55% 1. PFAD price has moderated sequentially as well as YoY, and this
Others would reduce pressure on gross margin.
80% 49% 6% 80.2% 49%
2. Tea cost has not moderated and will continue to put pressure on
HFD 0% 70% 5% 10.5% 70%
gross margin. However, price increases would offset some of this
Overall 53.2% 53.3% stress.
GM impact due to adverse mix (bps) 12 3. Promotions would increase from a very low base (albeit, still
Source: Company, IIFL Research lower than normal).
4. Mix will improve, with skin-care reviving and SKU width
Figure 14: Both, the adverse mix ex skin care and Covid-related costs, impacted gross improving.
margin by ~270bps 5. Full impact of lower crude prices will be felt in 2QFY21. However,
57% 300bps 12bps the company plans to pass on some price deflation in detergents.
-125bps
56% 6. While pressure on gross margin will reduce, ad-spend which
Higher mix of -130bps declined 390bps YoY in 1QFY21 will need to revive in 2QFY21.
55% HFD offseting
decline in PFAD infation -270bps
54% 53.3%
higher margin All in all, we believe that gross margin will contract even in 2QFY21
53%
Pricing + skin care Tea inflation
YoY. At the Ebitda level, organic margin decline, which was 170bps
52% reduction in 51.1% in 1QFY21, could become flat in 2Q and gradually improve
trade
51%
promotions Covid costs +
thereafter. However, on a full year basis, the expansion is unlikely to
50% Mix be over 50bps compared with ~120bps on an average (adj for
49% accounting), for the past three years.
48%
1QFY20 gross 1QFY21 gross
margin margin

Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Tata Consumer – Gross-margin expansion, What explains the margin expansion?

1. As seen in Figure 12, tea cost inflation is high in North Indian
despite tea inflation teas, but there is no inflation in South Indian teas. Tata uses a
higher proportion of South Indian teas compared with HUL.
Tata Consumer’s India gross margin expanded this quarter, by
316bps. What makes this remarkable is that: 2. There is a 4% price inflation for 1QFY21 that offsets some of the
input cost inflation.
1. This was not a low base effect – Q1FY20 standalone gross profit
was flat and, on this base, Tata Consumer saw gross profit 3. Tata Consumer has been holding a low-cost tea inventory, which
growth of 19% this quarter. was used this quarter and, hence, inflation did not hurt the
company.
Figure 15: Gross margin expansion in 1QFY21 is not on a favourable base
The way ahead
Gross margin (LHS) Gross profit growth (RHS) We do not expect a material hit to Tata Consumer’s gross margins
42% 30%
for the rest of the year. At the Ebitda level, we expect the company
25% to make up for any loss in GM via cost-efficiency plans and synergy
41%
20% benefits.
40% 15%
10% 1. The company has already taken an ~8% price increase; more
39%
price hikes will be taken, as and when necessary.
5%
38% 2. Old tea-inventory may still be present for part of 2Q.
0% 3. As production increases in August and September, tea price
37% -5% should come down.
1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

4. There is not much inflation in international tea. With such high

prices, Indian tea exports will become unviable and production
will be diverted to the domestic market, bringing down prices.
Source: Company, IIFL Research; Note: 4QFY20 gross profit growth (79%) includes the inorganic
portion; Gross margin for 4QFY20 and 1QFY21 is for the business, including foods

2. Tea prices are on the boil, up quite substantially YoY, as seen in

Figure 14; this also explains HUL’s gross margins.

3. HUL’s tea gross margins are down quite considerably. As seen in

Figure 11, HUL’s Ebit margin for the food & refreshments
segment excluding Horlicks was down 560bps. The damage to
the gross margin could have been higher. And excluding
businesses like coffee, ice-cream, etc, the GM hit to the tea
business itself could be even higher, maybe at over 1,000bps.

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Marico – Disproportionate impact of April Figure 17: April generally has a higher weight in 1QFY21 sales
Overall VAHO

Marico reported domestic/international/total sales decline of Weightage Sales growth Weightage Sales growth
15%/4%/11% respectively, in 1QFY21. VAHO sale was down by a April 45% -30% 44% -75%
whopping 32%. However, this underplays the underlying May 28% 4% 28% 2%
performance of the company. June 28% 4% 28% 2%
1QFY21 100% -11% 100% -32%
Figure 16: 1Q generally has a higher contribution to Marico’s sales
Source: Company, IIFL Research
32% Contribution of 1Q to full year
The quarterly result should be seen in light of the momentum in May
30% 30%
30% 29% and June, when Marico clocked domestic volume growth of ~3%
28%
28% 28% (4% consolidated value growth, per our estimate). For the company
28% 27% to have witnessed the 11% sales decline in the quarter, the decline
26% in April would have been 30% with a weightage of 45% for the
month, as per our estimate. For VAHO, the decline in April could
24% have been 75%, per our estimate; but the good news is that May
and June have witnessed YoY growth.
22%

20% The way ahead

1QFY14 1QFY15 1QFY16 1QFY17 1QFY18 1QFY19 1QFY20 As shown in Figure 16, 1Q typically, on an average, accounts for
28% of the yearly sales. However, in FY20, it accounted for 30% of
Source: Company, IIFL Research annual sales. Although partly this is because 1QFY20 was a good
quarter, growing 7% YoY, it is mainly because the rest of the year
Marico typically loads a lot of its schemes and promotions in the first was weak, declining 3%. Although the 4QFY20 decline is attributable
quarter of the year, in order to “start the year with a bang”. Over to Covid, even 2Q and 3QFY20 were weak.
FY14-19, 1Q has typically, on an average, accounted for 28% of the
annual sales. This slightly-higher skew is not driven by any
seasonality in consumer behaviour, but by the company’s own sales
plans.

While 1Q is generally a heavy quarter, it must be noted that April is

a heavy month within the quarter. We estimate that April’s salience
within the quarter is generally ~45%. The strictest lockdown was in
April and, therefore, April was the weakest month this year. Hence,
the heaviest month being the weakest has dragged down the
quarterly number.

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Figure 18: Marico witnessed a weak performance over 2Q-4QFY20 Figure 19: Impact of the change in inventory pipeline, on primary sales growth
Overall sales growth India volume growth FY20 FY21
25% Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2*
20% Inventory at period-end 15 10 10 10
15%
10% Primary sales 105 95 100 100
Low base for rest of FY21
5% YoY growth -4.8% 5.3%
0% Secondary sales 100 100 100 100
-5%
YoY growth 0.0% 0.0%
-10%
-15% Source: Company, IIFL Research
-20% *Note: in practice, could be spread over Q3/Q4 as well
1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21
The changing pipeline inventory can boost growth for Marico, in
coming quarters.
Source: Company, IIFL Research

With this low base, Marico should be able to grow well for the rest of
FY21.

Secondly, the normal pipeline fill that happens in 1Q each year did
not occur this year. Usually, the pipeline at the end of 1Q is high and
normalises thereafter, over the course of the remaining year. This
means that in a normal year, 2Q/3Q primary sales are lower than
secondary sales. However, this time around, as the pipeline is not
high at end-1Q, primary sales should be roughly equal to secondary
sales.

Look at this example in Figure 19 about how inventory pipeline can

affect growth. We take a hypothetical example, where underlying
demand is 100 units per quarter, normal inventory is 10 units, but
1Q has usually an elevated inventory of 15 units. We also assume
that there is no underlying growth in YoY demand, so as to ensure
that only the pipeline change impact shows up in growth.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 13

 India - FMCG

Dabur – New products to the rescue Although not a new launch, Chyawanprash sales grew 7x on a low
seasonal base. We estimate incremental sale at ~Rs800m. This was
boosted by consumer preference for immunity-boosting products, as
Dabur witnessed an 8% decline in its domestic sales this quarter. protection from Covid-19. Again, full marks to Dabur for marketing
International business declined 22%, and consolidated sales declined this and gaining 600bps market share in this category as a
13%. The decline has been at the higher end (although there are consequence. However, if we were to account for these, the sales
other companies that have done much worse), especially if decline in the core business is quite high.
compared on a Jan-Jun YoY basis.
Figure 21: Dabur’s sales, excluding new launches and Chyawanprash growth
Figure 20: Dabur’s decline in top-line is on the higher side
(Rs m) Domestic International Total
1QFY21 Jan-Jun '20 26% Hand sanitiser 450 450 900
20% New launches 450 50 500
Sales growth
10% Chyawanprash - incremental sales 800 0 800
Total 1700 500 2200
0%
Reported decline 6.9% 21.6% 12.9%
-10% Decline adjusted for the above 17.5% 29.6% 22.6%
-20% Source: Company, IIFL Research

-30% -43% However, we are mindful of the fact that we may be judging Dabur a
VBL

Marico

ITC
Emami

Colgate
Dabur

GCPL

Nestle
BJ Con

Britannia
HUL

Tata Cons
Jyothy

Agrotech
tad too harshly, removing the positive effects of Covid and the
company’s efforts to capitalise on the opportunity, while keeping the
negative impacts of Covid intact in the numbers. However, our aim
Source: Company, IIFL Research; Note: Standalone sales for VBL, Dabur, Marico and GCPL; includes is only to present a picture, of the devastation on the company’s
domestic sales for Nestlé and India tea growth for Tata Consumer core business; albeit, this is not permanent. But one must keep in
mind that some of the segments, such as home care and juices, are
However, what these numbers do not reveal is the sales growth materially down, despite some positive impact from new launches
excluding new launches. Firstly, all credit to Dabur for being and healthcare; OTC segments are boosted by the new launches.
proactive in identifying new opportunities thrown up by COVID and
capitalising on this by launching new products. The company has
launched:
• A hand sanitiser, which clocked sale of ~Rs900m, half of which was
accounted by sales in India (in skin care);
• healthcare and hygiene products, with total sale of ~Rs500m, a
large majority of which would be accounted by sales in India:
o OTC division – health drops, healthy juices;
o home-care – Dabur Sanitize home cleaning range.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 14

 India - FMCG

Figure 22: Dabur reported large declines in segments such as foods, home care and hair
care, in 1QFY21
60%
50% Segment wise growth in 1QFY21
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

Digestives
Foods

Home Care

Skin Care

OTC and Ethicals

Health Care
Hair Care

Oral Care
Source: Company, IIFL Research

The way ahead

• The negative effects of Covid-19 on the core business will gradually
fade. For example, we have seen the hair oils category normalising
in recent months.
• On the other hand, some of the positive effects of the pandemic may
also fade. Hand sanitiser sales will go down (although perhaps not in
Q2) and Chyawanprash, which may see higher growth than normal,
will not clock sales as high as 700%.
• Many new launches, if executed well, could add permanently to
sales. For example, new juice variants and the Dabur Sanitize
portfolio could grow steadily, from current levels.

All in all we believe that Dabur would be back on the growth path soon,
after a bad impact in the Jan-Jun 2020 period.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 15

 India - FMCG

GCPL – Poor performance in soaps The way ahead

The company has recently launched a germ-protection soap under
the Protekt brand. However, this will take time to ramp up. The
The soaps segment for GCPL declined 2% this quarter, despite a company has also recently launched a germ-protection soap under
23% decline in 4QFY20. Jan-Jun 2020 sales declined 11% YoY. the Cinthol brand and we believe maybe they should try that with
Godrej No.1 too. Although the extreme-health focus of consumers
Figure 23:Soaps segment sales declined by 11% during Jan-Jun ’20
will fade over time, germ protection as a category will emerge
30% stronger, with a higher market share of the soaps pie compared with
pre-Covid, when the dust settles.
20%
11% decline in
10% Jan-Jun '20 Such a trend would not be too favourable for GCPL, whose brands
0% are based either on the beauty or freshness concept. GCPL will have
to quickly pivot its products such as to ensure that sales are not
-10% affected for a longer period of time. We believe that GCPL’s soap
-20% division will turn YoY positive this quarter, but growth may remain
sluggish. This is a risk, especially because 1Q growth was held up by
-30%
the 27% growth in the HI segment, a performance led by March
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21
sales spilling into 1Q and, therefore, not repeatable. This means that
for the India sales growth to maintain the 1Q levels, other segments
will need to ramp up.
Source: Company, IIFL Research

However, before this period, the category had performed well – the
average growth for 10 quarters, excluding the past two, has been
9%. Over the past few years, GCPL has increased market share with
its micro marketing efforts and increasing geographic footprint of the
Cinthol brand.

So, what explains such poor growth in the past two quarters?

In our view, this is on account of the fact that consumer preference

has shifted towards germ-protection soaps. Dettol has become the
largest soap brand in India, growing a whopping 62% in the first
half of the calendar year.

GCPL’s Godrej No.1 is on the health & beauty platform, while its
brand Cinthol is positioned as a freshness soap.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 16

 India - FMCG

Emami – July sales, an indicator of the road Figure 25: July likely to see a high growth competition from the pain management range
Contribution of July Growth Contribution to July growth
ahead? 25.0% 10.0% 2.5%
30.0% 15.0% 4.5%
Emami in its conference call indicated that July sales growth was in 35.0% 20.0% 7.0%
double digits (maybe even in the mid-high teens, in our view). How 40.0% 25.0% 10.0%
should we read this data as regards the future trajectory of sales? 45.0% 30.0% 13.5%
50.0% 35.0% 17.5%
The pain balms category for Emami has done very well, growing
15% for the quarter and 43% in June. Source: Company, IIFL Research

Figure 24: Emami − Sales performance As shown in Figure 25, it is quite easy and possible that a fairly high
contribution of the July sales could be from the pain balm category.
1QFY21 June '20 The high growth in the category for Emami may be due to pre-
120% season fill-in as well as owing to production/manufacturing issues for
100% Sales growth the competition.
80%
60% The way ahead
40%
We would not consider July sales as an indicator of future sales, due
20%
0% to the reason explained above. We expect a low single-digit sales
-20% growth for the next two quarters. F&H continues to be under
-40% pressure. New launches will add to the growth; however, overall
-60% sales growth is unlikely to remain in double digits, in our view. 3Q
-80% generally accounts for over 35% of yearly profits, and it will be
grooming

management
Navratna

International

Boro Plus
Kesh King

Health care

important to see how the winter season pans out for the company.
Male

Pain

Source: Company, IIFL Research

The monsoon is generally a peak season for the pain balm industry.
We estimate that ~40-45% of full-year sales happen in 2Q.
Moreover, typically in July, there could be an even higher proportion
of pain-balm sales, depending on the sell in.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 17

 India - FMCG

ITC – Boost from other income Figure 27: Bond yields have declined in the past two years
1 yr govt bill yield 10 yr govt bond yield
ITC’s ‘other income’ in 1QFY21 expanded by 45% YoY. In a quarter 8.0 Bond yield
7.5
when profit for most of its businesses declined, this growth boosted 7.0
the company’s overall profit. We estimate that if the ‘other income’ 6.5
had been flat YoY, the adj PBT decline would have been 41%, 6.0
5.5
instead of the 35% reported. 5.0
4.5
Figure 26: ITC’s ‘other income’ grew 45% in 1QFY21 4.0
3.5
Other Income (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) 3.0

Apr-19
May-19

Apr-20
Oct-19

Dec-19

May-20
Aug-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Aug-20
Jun-19
Jul-19

Jun-20
Nov-19

Jul-20
Sep-19

Feb-20
12,000 Rs mn 60%
10,000 50%
40%
8,000 30%
Source: Company, IIFL Research
6,000 20%
10%
4,000 The way ahead
0%
2,000 We believe that in coming quarters, the company’s ‘other income’
-10%
faces risks, although 2QFY21 could see MTM gains, as yield has
0 -20% fallen even further.
1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21
1. While reduced yield leads to MTM gains, it also reduces the
income accrued on an on-going basis;
2. Reduction in corpus on account of dividend of Rs10 per share
Source: Company, IIFL Research
declared on 26-June which would total to a Rs122-bn outflow.
Reasons We have factored-in other income of Rs23bn for the rest of the year,
Although we do not have any information from the company, we which is a YoY growth of 19%. Due to the natural gyration in this
believe that the following could be the reasons for the increase in line item, it is always a difficult number to predict; however, it
other income: sanctions calling out a risk to this line item and, consequently, to the
1. Increase in corpus – Cash and investments, as of end-FY20, were EPS.
17% higher than at end-FY19 (Rs356bn vs Rs304bn).
2. MTM gains – On account of the fall in yields, there could have This would not have a bearing on our SOTP-based target price,
been an increase in bond prices, and MTM gains on the same. which values cash & investments on book value, and values other
businesses’ profit excluding other income. However, there are others
who would be valuing it on headline PER, in which case there could
be a valuation impact.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 18

 India - FMCG

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pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 19

 India - FMCG

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Name, Qualification and Certification of Research Analyst: Percy Panthaki(Chartered Accountant), Avi Mehta, CFA(PGDBM), Sameer Gupta(PGPM)
The author of this note has in the past been an employee of Hindustan Unilever Ltd.
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Key to our recommendation structure

BUY - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ more than average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

SELL - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Add - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% over the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Reduce - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Distribution of Ratings: Out of 229 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 110 have BUY ratings, 10 have SELL ratings, 78 have ADD ratings and 30 have REDUCE ratings

Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there
is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such
demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in
certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social
conditions. This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 20

 India - FMCG

Date Close price Target price Rating

Agro Tech Foods: 3 year price and rating history
(Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date 27 Jul 2020 625 700 BUY
1,000 02 Jul 2020 521 620 BUY
800 08 Apr 2020 480 520 BUY
16 Dec 2019 625 730 BUY
600 19 Nov 2019 576 640 BUY
400 21 Aug 2019 483 620 BUY
200 15 Nov 2018 517 685 BUY
30 Jul 2018 643 750 BUY
0 19 Feb 2018 637 800 BUY
Aug-17

Dec-17

Dec-18

Jun-20
Aug-19

Dec-19
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20
30 Nov 2017 525 675 BUY
27 Oct 2017 525 620 ADD
16 Aug 2017 512 610 ADD

Bajaj Consumer Care: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
600 20 Jul 2020 175 200 ADD 16 Aug 2017 402 450 ADD
500 02 Jul 2020 148 165 ADD
08 Apr 2020 138 160 ADD
400
19 Feb 2020 198 220 ADD
300 16 Dec 2019 227 270 ADD
200 22 Oct 2019 262 315 ADD
100 17 Jul 2019 315 375 ADD
0 11 Jan 2019 384 440 ADD
25 Oct 2018 354 410 ADD
Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Dec-18
Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

17 Jul 2018 410 450 ADD

15 Jan 2018 507 550 ADD
16 Oct 2017 414 465 ADD

Britannia Industries: 3 year price and rating history

(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
8,000 (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
7,000
6,000 20 Jul 2020 3785 4100 ADD 18 May 2018 5477 5600 BUY
5,000 04 Jun 2020 3510 3750 ADD 19 Feb 2018 4782 5100 BUY
4,000 08 Apr 2020 2835 3000 ADD 16 Nov 2017 4750 4800 BUY
3,000 11 Feb 2020 3156 3200 ADD 12 Sep 2017 4297 4400 BUY
2,000 16 Dec 2019 3055 3350 ADD 10 Aug 2017 4059 4200 BUY
1,000 14 Nov 2019 3120 3500 ADD
0
13 Aug 2019 2588 2600 ADD
Aug-17

Dec-17

Dec-19

Jun-20
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

03 May 2019 2896 3000 ADD

22 Feb 2019 3000 3075 ADD
11 Dec 2018 2981 3000 ADD
14 Nov 2018 5815 6000 ADD
08 Aug 2018 6200 7000 BUY

pe r c y.p an th aki @i i fl cap. c om 21

 India - FMCG

Colgate India: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating
Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
2,000 30 Jul 2020 1448 1550 ADD
19 Feb 2018 1077 1150 REDUCE
26 May 2020 1314 1400 ADD
1,500 17 Oct 2017 1063 1100 REDUCE
08 Apr 2020 1319 1390 ADD
14 Sep 2017 1144 1110 REDUCE
31 Jan 2020 1396 1485 ADD
1,000 16 Aug 2017 1047 1140 ADD
25 Oct 2019 1564 1550 ADD
500 16 Sep 2019 1237 1300 ADD
21 Aug 2019 1200 1200 REDUCE
0 22 Feb 2019 1243 1250 REDUCE
15 Nov 2018 1112 1120 REDUCE

Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Dec-18

Aug-19

Dec-19

Aug-20
Oct-17

Apr-18
Jun-18

Oct-18

Apr-19
Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Apr-20
Feb-18

Feb-20
16 Aug 2018 1137 1110 REDUCE
22 May 2018 1208 1180 REDUCE
22 Mar 2018 1041 1035 REDUCE

Dabur India: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
600 31 Jul 2020 492 500 ADD 03 May 2018 369 415 ADD
28 May 2020 429 430 ADD 01 Feb 2018 356 380 ADD
500
08 Apr 2020 478 490 ADD 01 Nov 2017 333 360 ADD
400 31 Jan 2020 479 500 ADD 07 Aug 2017 307 330 ADD
300 16 Dec 2019 460 480 ADD
200 09 Sep 2019 441 485 BUY
100 22 Jul 2019 420 460 BUY
0 03 May 2019 382 430 BUY
04 Feb 2019 452 485 BUY
Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

01 Nov 2018 385 425 BUY

23 Aug 2018 459 550 BUY
02 Aug 2018 431 485 ADD

Godrej Consumer: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Price TP/Reco changed date
1,600 20 Jul 2020 694 750 ADD 11 Jul 2018 1256 1200 ADD
1,400 14 May 2020 534 590 ADD 09 May 2018 1124 1160 ADD
1,200 08 Apr 2020 559 615 ADD 31 Jan 2018 1058 1150 ADD
1,000
800 19 Feb 2020 626 630 REDUCE 02 Nov 2017 963 1100 ADD
600 16 Dec 2019 672 670 REDUCE 01 Aug 2017 1037 1050 ADD
400 07 Nov 2019 742 700 REDUCE
200 29 Jul 2019 619 590 REDUCE
0 17 Jun 2019 663 730 ADD
06 May 2019 641 680 ADD
Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Dec-18
Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

30 Jan 2019 751 750 ADD

05 Nov 2018 714 745 ADD
31 Jul 2018 1312 1400 ADD

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 India - FMCG

Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Emami: 3 year price and rating history
(Rs) 02 Jul 2020 217 240 BUY 13 Nov 2017 1254 1285 BUY
Price TP/Reco changed date 08 Apr 2020 207 230 BUY 27 Oct 2017 1211 1240 BUY
1,600 10 Feb 2020 300 340 BUY 04 Aug 2017 1141 1170 BUY
1,400
1,200 16 Dec 2019 312 350 BUY
1,000 19 Nov 2019 313 405 BUY
800 09 Aug 2019 312 375 BUY
600 01 Feb 2019 411 475 BUY
400 15 Nov 2018 437 485 BUY
200 16 Aug 2018 575 620 BUY
0 06 Jul 2018 521 595 BUY

Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-19

Dec-19
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18
Jun-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20
04 May 2018 1082 1190 BUY
31 Jan 2018 1140 1230 BUY

Hindustan Unilever: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
3,000 23 Jul 2020 2248 2300 ADD 15 May 2018 1504 1500 ADD
2,500 22 Jul 2020 2318 2450 ADD 19 Feb 2018 1352 1450 ADD
04 May 2020 2195 2350 ADD 13 Nov 2017 1291 1375 ADD
2,000 08 Apr 2020 2445 2450 ADD 31 Oct 2017 1234 1300 ADD
1,500 14 Nov 2019 2081 2250 ADD 25 Sep 2017 1255 1270 ADD
1,000 23 Sep 2019 1970 2100 ADD 03 Aug 2017 1156 1225 ADD
500 24 Jul 2019 1693 1710 REDUCE
0 10 Jun 2019 1831 1750 REDUCE
06 May 2019 1693 1700 REDUCE
Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

18 Jan 2019 1752 1830 REDUCE

15 Oct 2018 1570 1700 ADD
17 Jul 2018 1751 1800 ADD

ITC: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
400 27 Jul 2020 200 225 BUY 27 Jul 2018 287 335 ADD
350 29 Jun 2020 195 220 BUY 17 May 2018 286 320 ADD
300 08 Apr 2020 182 200 BUY 02 Feb 2018 276 305 ADD
250 03 Feb 2020 219 255 BUY 17 Jan 2018 262 295 ADD
200 16 Dec 2019 240 290 BUY 28 Nov 2017 261 285 ADD
150
100 25 Oct 2019 249 295 BUY 30 Oct 2017 269 305 ADD
50 06 Sep 2019 244 300 BUY 16 Aug 2017 272 335 ADD
0 05 Aug 2019 265 320 BUY
14 May 2019 289 350 BUY
Aug-17

Dec-17

Jun-20
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

24 Jan 2019 278 335 BUY

15 Nov 2018 276 325 ADD
19 Oct 2018 286 330 ADD

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 India - FMCG

Jyothy Laboratories: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date
600 02 Jul 2020 118 135 BUY 13 Nov 2017 344 435 BUY
500 08 Jun 2020 118 138 BUY 08 Nov 2017 336 410 ADD
08 Apr 2020 96 110 BUY 04 Aug 2017 392 430 ADD
400
19 Feb 2020 130 145 BUY
300 16 Dec 2019 152 175 BUY
200 23 Oct 2019 178 200 BUY
100 24 Jul 2019 160 190 BUY
0 25 Oct 2018 185 210 BUY
26 Jul 2018 223 265 BUY
Aug-17

Dec-17

Dec-19

Jun-20
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20
06 Jul 2018 238 250 BUY
17 May 2018 393 500 BUY
18 Jan 2018 362 440 BUY

Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
Marico: 3 year price and rating history (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date 28 Jul 2020 350 400 ADD 14 Feb 2018 310 335 ADD
500 05 May 2020 284 320 ADD 16 Aug 2017 320 315 ADD
400 08 Apr 2020 284 300 ADD
03 Feb 2020 338 305 REDUCE
300
16 Dec 2019 332 335 REDUCE
200 29 Oct 2019 393 370 REDUCE
100 21 Aug 2019 395 400 ADD
07 May 2019 340 390 ADD
0 22 Feb 2019 336 380 ADD
Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Dec-18

Aug-19

Dec-19
Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Oct-18

Apr-19
Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

15 Nov 2018 348 345 ADD

06 Aug 2018 353 385 ADD
04 May 2018 312 355 ADD

Nestle India: 3 year price and rating history

(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date Date Close price Target price Rating Close price Target price
Date Rating
20,000 (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
13 May 2020 17462 17500 ADD
15,000 15 Feb 2018 7260 8500 BUY
08 Apr 2020 16850 17000 ADD
13 Nov 2017 7785 8620 ADD
10,000 19 Feb 2020 16588 16450 ADD
16 Aug 2017 6544 7250 ADD
16 Dec 2019 14133 15300 ADD
5,000 14 Nov 2019 14108 15500 ADD
13 Aug 2019 11993 12000 ADD
0 15 Mar 2019 10723 11770 BUY
Jun-19
Aug-17

Dec-17

Oct-18
Oct-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Jun-20
Apr-20

Aug-20
Jun-18

Feb-19

Oct-19
Feb-18

Feb-20

22 Feb 2019 10605 11330 BUY

29 Oct 2018 9569 11200 BUY
06 Aug 2018 10313 11500 BUY
11 May 2018 8982 10000 BUY
18 Apr 2018 8749 9500 BUY

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 India - FMCG

Tata Consumer Products: 3 year price and rating history Date Close price Target price Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
Price TP/Reco changed date
500 19 Jun 2020 370 380 ADD
15 May 2020 363 360 ADD
400 08 Apr 2020 285 300 ADD
300
200
100
0

Jun-20
Aug-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Dec-18

Aug-19

Dec-19
Oct-17

Apr-18
Jun-18

Oct-18

Apr-19
Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Feb-18

Feb-20

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