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Guan Chong: Malaysia
Guan Chong: Malaysia
customisation and wider usage of cocoa powder today, Guan Chong’s cocoa 2.8 157
powder selling price is less susceptible to the external environment.
Safe haven commands premium valuation. Other consumer stocks that 2.3 133
offer relatively stable earnings during this challenging time continue to trade at
1.8 109
premium valuation. For instance, Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK, NEUTRAL, TP:
MYR128.00) and QL Resources (QLG MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR8.16) are 1.3 85
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trading at 47.7x and 53.3x P/E vs the Consumer Product Index (CPI) of 19.4x
P/E. We believe Guan Chong shares similar stable earnings attributes, thanks
to its diverse clientele. In spite of that, the company is trading at only 13.4x Source: Bloomberg
P/E, a huge discount to its customers, international peers and even the CPI.
The company has recorded a 5-year run of earnings growth and we expect it
to maintain this impressive track record in FY20F.
Reiterate BUY with MYR4.30 TP, based on 19x P/E of revised FY21F
earnings, on par with CPI’s valuation. This is justified given Guan Chong’s
resilient earnings base and liquidity-driven market sentiment. We expect it to
continue to register positive growth despite the pandemic affecting the global
economy. Demand for cocoa products remains healthy as consumers turn to
comfort food during this period. Ivory Coast and Europe ventures should be
the next earnings rerating catalyst. Further expansion and M&As could be the
other potential catalysts as the company makes inroads into Europe and
downstream. With the view of the pandemic posing minimal impact to earnings,
we increase our FY20F-22F earnings by 10%.
Key risks to our call include cocoa bean price volatility and prolonged
uncertain over the living income differential (LID) issue.
Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Note:
Total turnover (MYRm) 2,273 2,942 4,006 4,343 4,676 Small cap stocks are defined as companies with a
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 179 209 223 251 280 market capitalisation of less than USD1bn.
Recurring net profit growth (%) 128.8 17.0 6.6 12.6 11.2
Recurring P/E (x) 18.88 16.13 15.14 13.44 12.08
P/B (x) 5.1 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.2
P/CF (x) 11.17 na 37.60 14.37 12.78
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.89 11.97 10.68 9.38 8.34
Return on average equity (%) 33.2 27.1 21.5 20.6 19.6
Net debtcover
Interest to equity
(x) (%) 83.6
9.29 66.9
8.97 61.3
7.74 43.5
8.29 30.1
10.22
Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial sum m ary (MYR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Malaysia Recurring EPS 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.25 0.28
Consumer Non-cyclical DPS 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.06
Guan Chong BVPS 0.66 0.94 1.11 1.31 1.52
GUAN MK Return on average equity (%) 33.2 27.1 21.5 20.6 19.6
Buy
Valuation m etrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 18.88 16.13 15.14 13.44 12.08
We use a target P/E of 19x to value GCB. P/B (x) 5.1 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.2
FCF Yield (%) 5.7 (4.9) 1.2 6.4 6.3
Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9
i. Demand for cocoa products; EV/EBITDA (x) 14.89 11.97 10.68 9.38 8.34
ii. Combined ratio; EV/EBIT (x) 16.62 13.27 12.36 10.77 9.55
iii. Average selling price.
Incom e statem ent (MYRm ) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Key risks
Total turnover 2,273 2,942 4,006 4,343 4,676
i. Fluctuation in cocoa bean price;
Gross profit 281 1,204 451 495 537
ii. Supply of cocoa bean;
iii. Drop in demand of cocoa products. EBITDA 262 333 378 418 457
Depreciation and amortisation (27) (33) (51) (54) (58)
Company Profile Operating profit 235 300 327 364 399
Guan Chong is engaged in producing cocoa-derived Net interest (25) (33) (42) (44) (39)
food ingredients; manufacturing, marketing and Pre-tax profit 211 268 284 320 360
promotion of cocoa related products; marketing and Taxation (20) (49) (61) (69) (80)
promotion activities of chocolate related products and
Reported net profit 190 219 223 251 280
confectionery; purchasing and distributing cocoa-
derived food ingredients. Recurring net profit 179 209 223 251 280
USD/metric
tonne
3,100
2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
average average average average average
2,900 MYR2350 MYR2307 MYR2464 MYR2546 MYR2271
2,700
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20
Recommendation Chart
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
Price Close
2020-04-21 Buy 3.35 2.26
3.6 Recommendations & Target Price
2020-03-12 Buy 3.45 2.18
na
6.00
3.25
3.35
1.6
1.1
0.6
0.1 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated
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