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Malaysia Results Preview

10 August 2020 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

Guan Chong (GUAN MK) Buy (Maintained)


Target Price (Return): MYR4.30 (+28%)
Stability Is a Scarcity, Still BUY
Price: MYR3.35
Market Cap: USD821m
Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 5.20m/1.21m
 Keep BUY, with new TP of MYR4.30 from MYR3.35, 28% upside and c.2% Analysts
yield. 2Q20F earnings should continue showing resilience and stay the course
for a sixth consecutive year of growth. Production should improve further in Lee Meng Horng
2H20 as operations normalise while demand for mass market chocolate +603 9280 8866
remains robust despite COVID-19. We raise our P/E to 19x (from 16x), in line lee.meng.horng@rhbgroup.com
with CPI valuation. We believe its resilient earnings base in the current
environment of sustained industry demand deserves a rerating, aside from
multiple growth catalysts. Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly
 The tough gets growing. We expect 2Q20F earnings to remain robust, +603 9280 8883
sustaining at MYR68m-72m despite the implementation of the Movement muhammad.afif.zulkaplly@rhbgroup.com
Control Order (MCO), thanks to forward sales and relatively stable combined
ratio. While the MCO affected many other manufacturers’ supply and demand Share Performance (%)
dynamics, Guan Chong has managed to maintain its utilisation rate at an YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m
optimal level of 95% and demand for mass market chocolate remains healthy Absolute 8.8 25.0 37.3 8.8 93.1
as the stay-at-home theme plays out globally. We expect production to improve
further sequentially in 2H20 as the market heads for normalisation. Relative 9.5 24.3 22.7 7.3 94.8
 Comfort food in demand. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted sales of 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 1.56 – 3.43
the upmarket chocolate segment, which relies heavily on the tourism and
hotelier industries. However, this has been offset by stronger demand for mass Guan Chong (GUAN MK)
Price Close
market chocolate as lockdowns are driving consumers’ desire for comfort food. Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
De-commoditising cocoa powder is serving Guan Chong well during this 3.8 205
challenging time, as it was able to offset any weakness in the sale of cocoa
butter, which relies on the premium chocolate market. Given the value-add 3.3 181

customisation and wider usage of cocoa powder today, Guan Chong’s cocoa 2.8 157
powder selling price is less susceptible to the external environment.
 Safe haven commands premium valuation. Other consumer stocks that 2.3 133

offer relatively stable earnings during this challenging time continue to trade at
1.8 109
premium valuation. For instance, Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK, NEUTRAL, TP:
MYR128.00) and QL Resources (QLG MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR8.16) are 1.3 85
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19

Apr-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Feb-20

Jul-20
Jul-20
May-20
May-20
Jan-20
Jan-20

Jun-20
Jun-20
trading at 47.7x and 53.3x P/E vs the Consumer Product Index (CPI) of 19.4x
P/E. We believe Guan Chong shares similar stable earnings attributes, thanks
to its diverse clientele. In spite of that, the company is trading at only 13.4x Source: Bloomberg
P/E, a huge discount to its customers, international peers and even the CPI.
The company has recorded a 5-year run of earnings growth and we expect it
to maintain this impressive track record in FY20F.
 Reiterate BUY with MYR4.30 TP, based on 19x P/E of revised FY21F
earnings, on par with CPI’s valuation. This is justified given Guan Chong’s
resilient earnings base and liquidity-driven market sentiment. We expect it to
continue to register positive growth despite the pandemic affecting the global
economy. Demand for cocoa products remains healthy as consumers turn to
comfort food during this period. Ivory Coast and Europe ventures should be
the next earnings rerating catalyst. Further expansion and M&As could be the
other potential catalysts as the company makes inroads into Europe and
downstream. With the view of the pandemic posing minimal impact to earnings,
we increase our FY20F-22F earnings by 10%.
 Key risks to our call include cocoa bean price volatility and prolonged
uncertain over the living income differential (LID) issue.
Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Note:
Total turnover (MYRm) 2,273 2,942 4,006 4,343 4,676 Small cap stocks are defined as companies with a
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 179 209 223 251 280 market capitalisation of less than USD1bn.
Recurring net profit growth (%) 128.8 17.0 6.6 12.6 11.2
Recurring P/E (x) 18.88 16.13 15.14 13.44 12.08
P/B (x) 5.1 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.2
P/CF (x) 11.17 na 37.60 14.37 12.78
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.89 11.97 10.68 9.38 8.34
Return on average equity (%) 33.2 27.1 21.5 20.6 19.6
Net debtcover
Interest to equity
(x) (%) 83.6
9.29 66.9
8.97 61.3
7.74 43.5
8.29 30.1
10.22

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


1
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Guan Chong Malaysia Results Preview
10 August 2020 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial sum m ary (MYR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Malaysia Recurring EPS 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.25 0.28
Consumer Non-cyclical DPS 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.06
Guan Chong BVPS 0.66 0.94 1.11 1.31 1.52
GUAN MK Return on average equity (%) 33.2 27.1 21.5 20.6 19.6
Buy
Valuation m etrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 18.88 16.13 15.14 13.44 12.08
We use a target P/E of 19x to value GCB. P/B (x) 5.1 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.2
FCF Yield (%) 5.7 (4.9) 1.2 6.4 6.3
Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9
i. Demand for cocoa products; EV/EBITDA (x) 14.89 11.97 10.68 9.38 8.34
ii. Combined ratio; EV/EBIT (x) 16.62 13.27 12.36 10.77 9.55
iii. Average selling price.
Incom e statem ent (MYRm ) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F
Key risks
Total turnover 2,273 2,942 4,006 4,343 4,676
i. Fluctuation in cocoa bean price;
Gross profit 281 1,204 451 495 537
ii. Supply of cocoa bean;
iii. Drop in demand of cocoa products. EBITDA 262 333 378 418 457
Depreciation and amortisation (27) (33) (51) (54) (58)
Company Profile Operating profit 235 300 327 364 399
Guan Chong is engaged in producing cocoa-derived Net interest (25) (33) (42) (44) (39)
food ingredients; manufacturing, marketing and Pre-tax profit 211 268 284 320 360
promotion of cocoa related products; marketing and Taxation (20) (49) (61) (69) (80)
promotion activities of chocolate related products and
Reported net profit 190 219 223 251 280
confectionery; purchasing and distributing cocoa-
derived food ingredients. Recurring net profit 179 209 223 251 280

Cash flow (MYRm ) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F


Change in w orking capital 86 (362) (227) (114) (113)
Cash flow from operations 303 (105) 90 235 264
Capex (109) (61) (50) (20) (50)
Cash flow from investing activities (99) (59) (50) (20) (50)
Dividends paid (40) (35) (50) (57) (63)
Cash flow from financing activities (200) 157 (30) (80) (272)
Cash at beginning of period 40 45 47 57 192
Net change in cash 4 (7) 10 135 (58)
Ending balance cash 44 38 57 192 134

Balance sheet (MYRm ) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F


Total cash and equivalents 45 47 57 192 134
Tangible fixed assets 459 477 476 441 433
Total investments 30 30 30 30 30
Total assets 1,771 2,042 2,559 2,825 2,922
Short-term debt 553 637 700 720 550
Total long-term debt 49 45 45 45 45
Total liabilities 1,104 1,091 1,435 1,506 1,386
Total equity 667 951 1,124 1,319 1,535
Total liabilities & equity 1,771 2,042 2,559 2,825 2,922

Key m etrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F


Revenue grow th (%) 5.8 29.4 36.1 8.4 7.7
Recurrent EPS grow th (%) 128.8 17.0 6.6 12.6 11.2
Gross margin (%) 12.4 40.9 11.2 11.4 11.5
Operating EBITDA margin (%) 11.5 11.3 9.4 9.6 9.8
Net profit margin (%) 8.4 7.5 5.6 5.8 6.0
Dividend payout ratio (%) 21.2 15.7 22.5 22.5 22.5
Capex/sales (%) 4.8 2.1 1.2 0.5 1.1
Interest cover (x) 9.29 8.97 7.74 8.29 10.22

Source: Company data, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


2
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
Guan Chong Malaysia Results Preview
10 August 2020 Consumer Non-cyclical | Food & Beverage Products

Figure 1: Cocoa bean price trend

USD/metric
tonne
3,100
2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
average average average average average
2,900 MYR2350 MYR2307 MYR2464 MYR2546 MYR2271

2,700

2,500

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,700

1,500
Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20

Source: The International Cocoa Organization,, Bloomberg

Figure 2: SOP valuation


Valuation method Value (MYR'm) Per Share (MYR)
FY21F earnings - P/E 19x 4,776.1 4.06
Cash proceeds from warrants 277.2 0.24
TP 4.30
Source: Company data, RHB

Recommendation Chart
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
Price Close
2020-04-21 Buy 3.35 2.26
3.6 Recommendations & Target Price
2020-03-12 Buy 3.45 2.18
na

6.00

3.25

3.35

3.1 2019-11-20 Buy 3.25 2.87


3.45

2019-09-03 Buy 6.00 1.97


2.6
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
2.1

1.6

1.1

0.6

0.1 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Aug-15 Nov-16 Feb-18 May-19

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report


3
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
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5. RHBIB did not receive compensation or benefit (including gift and special cost
arrangement e.g. company/issuer-sponsored and paid trip) in relation to the
production of this report.

5
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)
KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA
RHB Investment Bank Bhd PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 - SCBD
Jalan Tun Razak Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Kuala Lumpur 50400 Jakarta 12190
Malaysia Indonesia
Tel : +603 9280 8888 Tel : +6221 509 39 888
Fax : +603 9200 2216 Fax : +6221 509 39 777

BANGKOK SINGAPORE
RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL RHB Securities Singapore Pte Ltd.
10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 10 Collyer Quay
98, North Sathorn Road, Silom #09-08 Ocean Financial Centre
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Singapore 049315
Thailand Tel : +65 6533 1818
Tel: +66 2088 9999 Fax : +65 6532 6211
Fax :+66 2088 9799

6
Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080)

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