UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

POLITICAL SCIENCE 22710

ELECTORAL POLITICS IN AMERICA
Fall 2016

John Mark Hansen Richard Flores Fu Shu

P 316; 2–5476 Jenn Jackson Chad Levinson

This course explores the interactions of voters, candidates, the parties, and the media in
American national elections, chiefly in the campaign for the presidency, both in
nominating primaries and in the November general election. The course will examine
how voters learn about candidates, how they perceive candidates, how they come to turn
out to vote, and how they decide among the candidates. It will examine the strategies and
techniques of electoral campaigns, including the choices of campaign themes and the
impact of campaign advertising. It will consider the role of campaign contributors and
volunteers, the parties, the press, and the campaign organizations. Finally, it will assess
the impact of campaigns and elections on governing and policymaking.

REQUIREMENTS

Students in the course will write two papers of modest length and take a final
examination. The papers will be due on Monday 7 November and Monday 28
November.

REQUIRED TEXTS

Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, Brad T. Gomez, and David W. Rohde, Change and
continuity in the 2012 and 2014 elections (Congressional Quarterly Press, 2016).
Donald R. Kinder and Allison Dale-Riddle, The end of race? Obama, 2008, and racial
politics in America (Yale University Press, 2012).
John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The gamble: choice and chance in the 2012 presidential
election (Princeton University Press, 2013).

The textbooks are available at the Seminary Coop Bookstore, 5751 South Woodlawn
Avenue. There is much additional reading from the research literature on campaigns and
elections, all of which is available on electronic reserve. This material is an essential part
of the course and not a supplement.

EVENTS

On Election Day evening, Tuesday 8 November, the class will gather at the Institute of
Politics to watch and discuss the election returns.
READINGS

1. Introduction

THE VOTERS

2. The “fundamentals”

Sides and Vavreck, The gamble, Chap. 2.

Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting presidential elections (Yale, 1983): chaps. 4, 6.
Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien, “Election forecasting for turbulent
times” PS 45 (October 2012): 625–29.
Alan I. Abramowitz, “Forecasting in a polarized era: the time for change model
and the 2012 presidential election” PS 45 (October 2012): 618–19.
Thomas M. Holbrook, “Incumbency, national conditions, and the 2012
presidential election,” PS 45 (October 2012): 640–43.
Larry M. Bartels and John Zaller, “Presidential vote models: a recount,” PS 34
(March 2001): 9–20.

3. Partisanship and voting

Abramson, Aldrich, Gomez, and Rohde, Change and continuity: chap. 8.

Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes,
The American voter (John Wiley & Sons, 1960): chap. 6.
Larry M. Bartels, “Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952–1996,” American
Journal of Political Science 44 (January 2000): 35–50.

4. The nature and evolution of partisanship

Abramson, Aldrich, Gomez and Rohde, Change and continuity: chap. 5.

Donald Green, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler, Partisan hearts and minds
(Yale, 2002): chap. 5.
Leonie Huddy, Lilliana Mason, and Lene Aarøe, “Expressive partisanship:
campaign involvement, political emotion, and partisan identity,” American
Political Science Review 109 (February 2015): 1–17.
Matthew Levendusky, The partisan sort: how liberals became Democrats and
conservatives became Republicans (Chicago, 2009): chap. 2.

5. Evaluations of party and candidate performance

Abramson, Aldrich, Gomez, and Rohde, Change and continuity: chap. 7.

Gregory A. Huber, Seth J. Hill, and Gabriel S. Lenz, “Sources of bias in
retrospective decision making: experimental evidence on voters’
limitations in controlling incumbents,” American Political Science Review
106 (November 2012): 720–41.
 David Karol and Edward Miguel, “The electoral cost of war: Iraq casualties and
the 2004 U.S. presidential election,” Journal of Politics 69 (August 2007):
633–48.

6. Issues

Abramson, Aldrich, Gomez, and Rohde, Change and continuity: chap. 6.

Donald E. Stokes, “Spatial models of party competition,” American Political
Science Review 57 (June 1963): 368–77.
Stephen A. Jessee, “Partisan bias, political information, and spatial voting in the
2008 presidential election,” Journal of Politics 72 (April 2010): 327–40.
James N. Druckman, Erik Peterson, and Rune Slothuus, “How elite partisan
polarization affects public opinion formation,” American Political Science
Review 107 (February 2013): 57–79.

7. Cognition and affect in candidate evaluation

Robert P. Abelson, Donald R. Kinder, D. R. Peters, and Susan T. Fiske,

“Affective and semantic components in political person perception,”
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 42 (April 1982): 619–30.
Donald R. Kinder, “Presidential character revisited,” in Richard R. Lau and David
O. Sears, eds., Political cognition (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1986):
233–56.

8. Race, gender, religion, and other affinities

Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and continuity: chap. 5.

Kinder and Dale-Riddle, The end of race? chaps. 2, 4, 5.
Elfrén O. Pérez, “Xenophobic rhetoric and its political effects on immigrants and
their co-ethnics,” American Journal of Political Science 59 (July 2015):
549–64.

9. Interest, engagement, and ignorance

Philip E. Converse, “The nature of belief systems in mass publics,” in David E.

Apter, ed., Ideology and discontent (Free Press, 1964): 206–61; reprinted
in Critical Review 18 (Winter 2006): 1–74.
Samuel L. Popkin, The reasoning voter, 2d ed. (Chicago, 1994): chap. 4.

THE PROCESS

10. Nominating primaries

Sides and Vavreck, The gamble, Chaps. 3–4.

Larry M. Bartels, Presidential primaries and the dynamics of public choice
(Princeton, 1988): chaps. 4, 6.
 11. The federal election system

Daron R. Shaw, The race to 270: the Electoral College and the campaign
strategies of 2000 and 2004 (Chicago, 2006): chaps. 3–4.
Steven J. Rosenstone, Roy L. Behr, and Edward H. Lazarus, Third parties in
America, 2d ed. (Princeton, 1996): chaps. 6, 7.
Voting: what is, what could be, Report of the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology
Project (2001): 17–25, 88–92.

THE CAMPAIGNS

12. Financing and working campaigns

Candace J. Nelson, “Financing the 2012 presidential general election,” in David

B. Magleby, ed., Financing the 2012 election (Brookings, 2014): chap. 4.
David B. Magleby and Jay Goodliffe, “Interest groups,” in David B. Magleby,
ed., Financing the 2012 election (Brookings, 2014): chap. 7.
Ryan D. Enos and Eitan D. Hersch, “Party activists as campaign advertisers: the
ground campaign as a principal-agent problem,” American Political
Science Review 109 (May 2015): 252–78.

13. “Paid media”: advertising and effects

Sides and Vavreck, The gamble, Chap. 5.

Kate Kenski, Bruce W. Hardy, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The Obama victory:
how media, money, and message shaped the 2008 election (Oxford, 2010):
chap. 12 (with Chris Adasiewicz).
Ted Brader, “Striking a responsive chord: how political ads motivate and
persuade voters by appealing to emotions,” American Journal of Political
Science 49 (April 2005): 388–405.

14. “Free media”: coverage and effects

Sides and Vavreck, The gamble, Chap. 6.

Susanna Diliplane, “Activation, conversion, or reinforcement? the impact of
partisan news exposure on vote choice,” American Journal of Political
Science 58 (January 2014): 79–94.
Martin Gilens, Lynn Vavreck, and Martin Cohen, “The mass media and the
public’s assessments of presidential candidates, 1952–2000,” Journal of
Politics 69 (November 2007): 1160–75.
 15. Issue strategies

Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson, The 2000 presidential election and the
foundations of party politics (Cambridge 2004): chap. 7.
D. Sunshine Hillygus and Todd G. Shields, The persuadable voter: wedge issues
in presidential campaigns (Princeton, 2008): chap. 6.
Philip E. Converse, Aage R. Clausen, and Warren E. Miller, “Electoral myth and
reality: the 1964 election,” American Political Science Review 59 (June
1965): 321–36.
John R. Petrocik, “Issue ownership in presidential elections, with a 1980 case
study,” American Journal of Political Science 40 (August 1996): 825–50.

16. Mobilization and voter turnout

Abramson, Aldrich, Gomez, and Rohde, Change and continuity, chap. 4.

Michael McDonald and Samuel L. Popkin, “The myth of the vanishing voter,”
American Political Science Review 95 (December 2001): 963–74.
Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, participation, and
democracy in America (Macmillan, 1993): chap. 7.
Thomas G. Hansford and Brad T. Gomez, “Estimating the electoral effects of
voter turnout,” American Political Science Review 104 (May 2010): 268–
88.

17. Campaign effects revisited

Sides and Vavreck, The gamble, Chap. 7.

Christopher Wlezien and Robert S. Erikson, “The timeline of presidential election
campaigns,” Journal of Politics 64 (November 2002): 969–93.
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, David Darmofal, and Christian A. Farrell, “The
aggregate dynamics of campaigns,” Journal of Politics 71 (January 2009):
309–23.

THE OUTCOMES

18. Elections and governance

Robert A. Dahl, “Myth of the presidential mandate,” Political Science Quarterly

105 (Autumn 1990): 355–72.
Lawrence R. Grossback, David A. M. Peterson, and James A. Stimson,
“Comparing competing theories on the causes of mandate perceptions,”
American Journal of Political Science 49 (April 2005): 406–19.

19. Elections, power, and accountability

Larry M. Bartels, “Where the ducks are,” in John G. Geer, ed., Politicians and
party politics (Johns Hopkins, 1998): 43–79.
Larry M. Bartels, Unequal democracy: the political economy of the new Gilded
Age (Princeton, 2008): chap. 4.
James D. Fearon, “Electoral accountability and the control of politicians,” in
Adam Przeworski, Susan C. Stokes, and Bernard Manin, eds., Democracy,
accountability, and representation (Cambridge, 1999): 55–97.