Until 1750 Historical:

• Carbon cycle was in rough equilibrium for past 10m years

atmosphere (590) • CO2 in air varied between 190 & 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv)
90
• Roughly 210 billion tonnes carbon emitted & absorbed annually (GtCpa)
90
• This is referred to as the “Carbon Flux”
• Carbon Flux ~36% of total atmospheric carbon balance (590GtC)
120 120
Anthropogenic Emissions:
land (3,000) • Effect noticed after 1750 & has been accelerating since then
• Current emissions estimated at 7GtCpa (i.e. ~3% of Carbon Flux)
oceans (40,000) fossil (4,200) • But only 4GtCpa absorbed, so 3GtCpa retained in atmosphere
• Atmospheric carbon increased:
• by 0.6GtCpa from 1750 to 1850
• by 1.6GtCpa from 1850 to 1950
crust • by 4.0GtCpa from 1950 to 2000
(100,000,000)
• by 6.0GtCpa since 2000
• Since 1750, atm. C increased from 590Bt to 850Bt (from 277 - 405ppmv now)

Current 2017 Estimated Impact to 2100:

• Climate science is reliable, but complicated. Enormous inherent changes in
atmosphere (850) +6 94 90 climate systems make incremental impacts difficult to predict and even harder
+4
to prove to the non-technical (or to disprove sceptics)
• Increase in mean global temps (1°C to date, plus another 1 to 2°C by 2100)
+4
14
• Melting of ice sheets will lower albedo & lead to increased warming
• Global ice melt currently 375,000 Billion tonnes per year
124 120
• Slight increase in sea levels (0.5m to 1.0m)
land (2,900) • Slight acidification of oceans, changes in currents likely (e.g. Gulf Stream)
• Warmer temps & higher CO2 good for plants, but not for animals
oceans (40,100) fossil (4,000)
Knock-on Effects:
• Ecosystems are not able to adapt at this rate of change
• Corals that would gradually grow in new areas will die instead
crust • Some animals will not be able to adapt (e.g. polar bears)
(100,000,000) • Ocean acidification may affect crustacean shell creation
• Food chains will likely be disrupted, with knock-on effects
• Ultimate effects are very difficult to predict
Note: Yellow numbers are annual mass flows (GtCpa),
other numbers are total mass balances (GtC). • Thawing of permafrost releases methane, 60x more potent than CO2