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{

"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Created By: Shifali Sharma\n",
"\n",
"##### shifali.cse@cumail.in"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Multiple Linear Regression\n",
"## Housing Case Study\n",
"\n",
"#### Problem Statement:\n",
"\n",
"Consider a real estate company that has a dataset containing the prices of
properties in the Delhi region. It wishes to use the data to optimise the sale
prices of the properties based on important factors such as area, bedrooms,
parking, etc.\n",
"\n",
"Essentially, the company wants —\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"- To identify the variables affecting house prices, e.g. area, number of
rooms, bathrooms, etc.\n",
"\n",
"- To create a linear model that quantitatively relates house prices with
variables such as number of rooms, area, number of bathrooms, etc.\n",
"\n",
"- To know the accuracy of the model, i.e. how well these variables can predict
house prices.\n",
"\n",
"**So interpretation is important!**"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 1: Reading and Understanding the Data\n",
"\n",
"Let us first import NumPy and Pandas and read the housing dataset"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Supress Warnings\n",
"\n",
"import warnings\n",
"warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import numpy as np\n",
"import pandas as pd"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"housing = pd.read_csv(\"Housing.csv\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
" <th>basement</th>\n",
" <th>hotwaterheating</th>\n",
" <th>airconditioning</th>\n",
" <th>parking</th>\n",
" <th>prefarea</th>\n",
" <th>furnishingstatus</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>13300000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>8960</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>9960</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>semi-furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>12215000</td>\n",
" <td>7500</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>11410000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>yes</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>no</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories mainroad guestroom basement
\\\n",
"0 13300000 7420 4 2 3 yes no no
\n",
"1 12250000 8960 4 4 4 yes no no
\n",
"2 12250000 9960 3 2 2 yes no yes
\n",
"3 12215000 7500 4 2 2 yes no yes
\n",
"4 11410000 7420 4 1 2 yes yes yes
\n",
"\n",
" hotwaterheating airconditioning parking prefarea furnishingstatus \n",
"0 no yes 2 yes furnished \n",
"1 no yes 3 no furnished \n",
"2 no no 2 yes semi-furnished \n",
"3 no yes 3 yes furnished \n",
"4 no yes 2 no furnished "
]
},
"execution_count": 4,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Check the head of the dataset\n",
"housing.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Inspect the various aspects of the housing dataframe"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"(545, 13)"
]
},
"execution_count": 5,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"housing.shape"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
"RangeIndex: 545 entries, 0 to 544\n",
"Data columns (total 13 columns):\n",
"price 545 non-null int64\n",
"area 545 non-null int64\n",
"bedrooms 545 non-null int64\n",
"bathrooms 545 non-null int64\n",
"stories 545 non-null int64\n",
"mainroad 545 non-null object\n",
"guestroom 545 non-null object\n",
"basement 545 non-null object\n",
"hotwaterheating 545 non-null object\n",
"airconditioning 545 non-null object\n",
"parking 545 non-null int64\n",
"prefarea 545 non-null object\n",
"furnishingstatus 545 non-null object\n",
"dtypes: int64(6), object(7)\n",
"memory usage: 55.4+ KB\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"housing.info()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {
"scrolled": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>parking</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>count</th>\n",
" <td>5.450000e+02</td>\n",
" <td>545.000000</td>\n",
" <td>545.000000</td>\n",
" <td>545.000000</td>\n",
" <td>545.000000</td>\n",
" <td>545.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>mean</th>\n",
" <td>4.766729e+06</td>\n",
" <td>5150.541284</td>\n",
" <td>2.965138</td>\n",
" <td>1.286239</td>\n",
" <td>1.805505</td>\n",
" <td>0.693578</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>std</th>\n",
" <td>1.870440e+06</td>\n",
" <td>2170.141023</td>\n",
" <td>0.738064</td>\n",
" <td>0.502470</td>\n",
" <td>0.867492</td>\n",
" <td>0.861586</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>min</th>\n",
" <td>1.750000e+06</td>\n",
" <td>1650.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>25%</th>\n",
" <td>3.430000e+06</td>\n",
" <td>3600.000000</td>\n",
" <td>2.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>50%</th>\n",
" <td>4.340000e+06</td>\n",
" <td>4600.000000</td>\n",
" <td>3.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>2.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>75%</th>\n",
" <td>5.740000e+06</td>\n",
" <td>6360.000000</td>\n",
" <td>3.000000</td>\n",
" <td>2.000000</td>\n",
" <td>2.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>max</th>\n",
" <td>1.330000e+07</td>\n",
" <td>16200.000000</td>\n",
" <td>6.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>4.000000</td>\n",
" <td>3.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories
\\\n",
"count 5.450000e+02 545.000000 545.000000 545.000000 545.000000
\n",
"mean 4.766729e+06 5150.541284 2.965138 1.286239 1.805505
\n",
"std 1.870440e+06 2170.141023 0.738064 0.502470 0.867492
\n",
"min 1.750000e+06 1650.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000
\n",
"25% 3.430000e+06 3600.000000 2.000000 1.000000 1.000000
\n",
"50% 4.340000e+06 4600.000000 3.000000 1.000000 2.000000
\n",
"75% 5.740000e+06 6360.000000 3.000000 2.000000 2.000000
\n",
"max 1.330000e+07 16200.000000 6.000000 4.000000 4.000000
\n",
"\n",
" parking \n",
"count 545.000000 \n",
"mean 0.693578 \n",
"std 0.861586 \n",
"min 0.000000 \n",
"25% 0.000000 \n",
"50% 0.000000 \n",
"75% 1.000000 \n",
"max 3.000000 "
]
},
"execution_count": 7,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"housing.describe()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 2: Visualising the Data\n",
"\n",
"Let's now spend some time doing what is arguably the most important step -
**understanding the data**.\n",
"- If there is some obvious multicollinearity going on, this is the first place
to catch it\n",
"- Here's where you'll also identify if some predictors directly have a strong
association with the outcome variable\n",
"\n",
"We'll visualise our data using `matplotlib` and `seaborn`."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 8,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"import seaborn as sns"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"#### Visualising Numeric Variables\n",
"\n",
"Let's make a pairplot of all the numeric variables"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 9,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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zc89WgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 1080x1080 with 42 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"sns.pairplot(housing)\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"#### Visualising Categorical Variables\n",
"\n",
"As you might have noticed, there are a few categorical variables as well.
Let's make a boxplot for some of these variables."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 1440x864 with 6 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"plt.figure(figsize=(20, 12))\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,1)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'mainroad', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,2)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'guestroom', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,3)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'basement', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,4)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'hotwaterheating', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,5)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'airconditioning', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.subplot(2,3,6)\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'furnishingstatus', y = 'price', data = housing)\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We can also visualise some of these categorical features parallely by using
the `hue` argument. Below is the plot for `furnishingstatus` with `airconditioning`
as the hue."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"image/png":
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x360 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"plt.figure(figsize = (10, 5))\n",
"sns.boxplot(x = 'furnishingstatus', y = 'price', hue = 'airconditioning', data
= housing)\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 3: Data Preparation"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"- You can see that your dataset has many columns with values as 'Yes' or
'No'.\n",
"\n",
"- But in order to fit a regression line, we would need numerical values and
not string. Hence, we need to convert them to 1s and 0s, where 1 is a 'Yes' and 0
is a 'No'."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# List of variables to map\n",
"\n",
"varlist = ['mainroad', 'guestroom', 'basement', 'hotwaterheating',
'airconditioning', 'prefarea']\n",
"\n",
"# Defining the map function\n",
"def binary_map(x):\n",
" return x.map({'yes': 1, \"no\": 0})\n",
"\n",
"# Applying the function to the housing list\n",
"housing[varlist] = housing[varlist].apply(binary_map)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
" <th>basement</th>\n",
" <th>hotwaterheating</th>\n",
" <th>airconditioning</th>\n",
" <th>parking</th>\n",
" <th>prefarea</th>\n",
" <th>furnishingstatus</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>13300000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>8960</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>9960</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>semi-furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>12215000</td>\n",
" <td>7500</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>11410000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories mainroad guestroom
\\\n",
"0 13300000 7420 4 2 3 1 0 \n",
"1 12250000 8960 4 4 4 1 0 \n",
"2 12250000 9960 3 2 2 1 0 \n",
"3 12215000 7500 4 2 2 1 0 \n",
"4 11410000 7420 4 1 2 1 1 \n",
"\n",
" basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking prefarea \\\n",
"0 0 0 1 2 1 \n",
"1 0 0 1 3 0 \n",
"2 1 0 0 2 1 \n",
"3 1 0 1 3 1 \n",
"4 1 0 1 2 0 \n",
"\n",
" furnishingstatus \n",
"0 furnished \n",
"1 furnished \n",
"2 semi-furnished \n",
"3 furnished \n",
"4 furnished "
]
},
"execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Check the housing dataframe now\n",
"\n",
"housing.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Dummy Variables"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The variable `furnishingstatus` has three levels. We need to convert these
levels into integer as well. \n",
"\n",
"For this, we will use something called `dummy variables`."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Get the dummy variables for the feature 'furnishingstatus' and store it in a
new variable - 'status'\n",
"status = pd.get_dummies(housing['furnishingstatus'])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
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" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>furnished</th>\n",
" <th>semi-furnished</th>\n",
" <th>unfurnished</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
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" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" furnished semi-furnished unfurnished\n",
"0 1 0 0\n",
"1 1 0 0\n",
"2 0 1 0\n",
"3 1 0 0\n",
"4 1 0 0"
]
},
"execution_count": 15,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Check what the dataset 'status' looks like\n",
"status.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Now, you don't need three columns. You can drop the `furnished` column, as the
type of furnishing can be identified with just the last two columns where — \n",
"- `00` will correspond to `furnished`\n",
"- `01` will correspond to `unfurnished`\n",
"- `10` will correspond to `semi-furnished`"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 16,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Let's drop the first column from status df using 'drop_first = True'\n",
"\n",
"status = pd.get_dummies(housing['furnishingstatus'], drop_first = True)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Add the results to the original housing dataframe\n",
"\n",
"housing = pd.concat([housing, status], axis = 1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 18,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>9960</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>semi-furnished</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>12215000</td>\n",
" <td>7500</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>11410000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>furnished</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories mainroad guestroom
\\\n",
"0 13300000 7420 4 2 3 1 0 \n",
"1 12250000 8960 4 4 4 1 0 \n",
"2 12250000 9960 3 2 2 1 0 \n",
"3 12215000 7500 4 2 2 1 0 \n",
"4 11410000 7420 4 1 2 1 1 \n",
"\n",
" basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking prefarea \\\n",
"0 0 0 1 2 1 \n",
"1 0 0 1 3 0 \n",
"2 1 0 0 2 1 \n",
"3 1 0 1 3 1 \n",
"4 1 0 1 2 0 \n",
"\n",
" furnishingstatus semi-furnished unfurnished \n",
"0 furnished 0 0 \n",
"1 furnished 0 0 \n",
"2 semi-furnished 1 0 \n",
"3 furnished 0 0 \n",
"4 furnished 0 0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 18,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Now let's see the head of our dataframe.\n",
"\n",
"housing.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 19,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Drop 'furnishingstatus' as we have created the dummies for it\n",
"\n",
"housing.drop(['furnishingstatus'], axis = 1, inplace = True)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
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" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
" <th>basement</th>\n",
" <th>hotwaterheating</th>\n",
" <th>airconditioning</th>\n",
" <th>parking</th>\n",
" <th>prefarea</th>\n",
" <th>semi-furnished</th>\n",
" <th>unfurnished</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>13300000</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>8960</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
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" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>12250000</td>\n",
" <td>9960</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>12215000</td>\n",
" <td>7500</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>3</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>11410000</td>\n",
" <td>7420</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories mainroad guestroom
\\\n",
"0 13300000 7420 4 2 3 1 0 \n",
"1 12250000 8960 4 4 4 1 0 \n",
"2 12250000 9960 3 2 2 1 0 \n",
"3 12215000 7500 4 2 2 1 0 \n",
"4 11410000 7420 4 1 2 1 1 \n",
"\n",
" basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking prefarea \\\n",
"0 0 0 1 2 1 \n",
"1 0 0 1 3 0 \n",
"2 1 0 0 2 1 \n",
"3 1 0 1 3 1 \n",
"4 1 0 1 2 0 \n",
"\n",
" semi-furnished unfurnished \n",
"0 0 0 \n",
"1 0 0 \n",
"2 1 0 \n",
"3 0 0 \n",
"4 0 0 "
]
},
"execution_count": 20,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"housing.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 4: Splitting the Data into Training and Testing Sets\n",
"\n",
"As you know, the first basic step for regression is performing a train-test
split."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n",
"\n",
"# We specify this so that the train and test data set always have the same
rows, respectively\n",
"np.random.seed(0)\n",
"df_train, df_test = train_test_split(housing, train_size = 0.7, test_size =
0.3, random_state = 100)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Rescaling the Features \n",
"\n",
"As you saw in the demonstration for Simple Linear Regression, scaling doesn't
impact your model. Here we can see that except for `area`, all the columns have
small integer values. So it is extremely important to rescale the variables so that
they have a comparable scale. If we don't have comparable scales, then some of the
coefficients as obtained by fitting the regression model might be very large or
very small as compared to the other coefficients. This might become very annoying
at the time of model evaluation. So it is advised to use standardization or
normalization so that the units of the coefficients obtained are all on the same
scale. As you know, there are two common ways of rescaling:\n",
"\n",
"1. Min-Max scaling \n",
"2. Standardisation (mean-0, sigma-1) \n",
"\n",
"This time, we will use MinMax scaling."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 22,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"scaler = MinMaxScaler()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 24,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Apply scaler() to all the columns except the 'yes-no' and 'dummy'
variables\n",
"num_vars = ['area', 'bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'stories', 'parking','price']\n",
"\n",
"df_train[num_vars] = scaler.fit_transform(df_train[num_vars])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 25,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
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" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
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" <th>unfurnished</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>359</th>\n",
" <td>0.169697</td>\n",
" <td>0.155227</td>\n",
" <td>0.4</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
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" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>19</th>\n",
" <td>0.615152</td>\n",
" <td>0.403379</td>\n",
" <td>0.4</td>\n",
" <td>0.5</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
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" <td>1</td>\n",
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" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>159</th>\n",
" <td>0.321212</td>\n",
" <td>0.115628</td>\n",
" <td>0.4</td>\n",
" <td>0.5</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
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" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>35</th>\n",
" <td>0.548133</td>\n",
" <td>0.454417</td>\n",
" <td>0.4</td>\n",
" <td>0.5</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0.666667</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>28</th>\n",
" <td>0.575758</td>\n",
" <td>0.538015</td>\n",
" <td>0.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.5</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0.666667</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>0</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories mainroad guestroom
\\\n",
"359 0.169697 0.155227 0.4 0.0 0.000000 1 0
\n",
"19 0.615152 0.403379 0.4 0.5 0.333333 1 0
\n",
"159 0.321212 0.115628 0.4 0.5 0.000000 1 1
\n",
"35 0.548133 0.454417 0.4 0.5 1.000000 1 0
\n",
"28 0.575758 0.538015 0.8 0.5 0.333333 1 0
\n",
"\n",
" basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking prefarea \\\n",
"359 0 0 0 0.333333 0 \n",
"19 0 0 1 0.333333 1 \n",
"159 1 0 1 0.000000 0 \n",
"35 0 0 1 0.666667 0 \n",
"28 1 1 0 0.666667 0 \n",
"\n",
" semi-furnished unfurnished \n",
"359 0 1 \n",
"19 1 0 \n",
"159 0 0 \n",
"35 0 0 \n",
"28 0 1 "
]
},
"execution_count": 25,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"df_train.head()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
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" <th>prefarea</th>\n",
" <th>semi-furnished</th>\n",
" <th>unfurnished</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>count</th>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" <td>381.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>mean</th>\n",
" <td>0.260333</td>\n",
" <td>0.288710</td>\n",
" <td>0.386352</td>\n",
" <td>0.136483</td>\n",
" <td>0.268591</td>\n",
" <td>0.855643</td>\n",
" <td>0.170604</td>\n",
" <td>0.351706</td>\n",
" <td>0.052493</td>\n",
" <td>0.299213</td>\n",
" <td>0.242345</td>\n",
" <td>0.233596</td>\n",
" <td>0.414698</td>\n",
" <td>0.325459</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>std</th>\n",
" <td>0.157607</td>\n",
" <td>0.181420</td>\n",
" <td>0.147336</td>\n",
" <td>0.237325</td>\n",
" <td>0.295001</td>\n",
" <td>0.351913</td>\n",
" <td>0.376657</td>\n",
" <td>0.478131</td>\n",
" <td>0.223313</td>\n",
" <td>0.458515</td>\n",
" <td>0.285933</td>\n",
" <td>0.423674</td>\n",
" <td>0.493318</td>\n",
" <td>0.469162</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>min</th>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>25%</th>\n",
" <td>0.151515</td>\n",
" <td>0.155227</td>\n",
" <td>0.200000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>50%</th>\n",
" <td>0.221212</td>\n",
" <td>0.234424</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>75%</th>\n",
" <td>0.345455</td>\n",
" <td>0.398099</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.500000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>max</th>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories
mainroad \\\n",
"count 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000
381.000000 \n",
"mean 0.260333 0.288710 0.386352 0.136483 0.268591
0.855643 \n",
"std 0.157607 0.181420 0.147336 0.237325 0.295001
0.351913 \n",
"min 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 \n",
"25% 0.151515 0.155227 0.200000 0.000000 0.000000
1.000000 \n",
"50% 0.221212 0.234424 0.400000 0.000000 0.333333
1.000000 \n",
"75% 0.345455 0.398099 0.400000 0.500000 0.333333
1.000000 \n",
"max 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000
1.000000 \n",
"\n",
" guestroom basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking
\\\n",
"count 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000
\n",
"mean 0.170604 0.351706 0.052493 0.299213 0.242345
\n",
"std 0.376657 0.478131 0.223313 0.458515 0.285933
\n",
"min 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"25% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"50% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"75% 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.333333
\n",
"max 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000
\n",
"\n",
" prefarea semi-furnished unfurnished \n",
"count 381.000000 381.000000 381.000000 \n",
"mean 0.233596 0.414698 0.325459 \n",
"std 0.423674 0.493318 0.469162 \n",
"min 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"25% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"50% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"75% 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000 \n",
"max 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 "
]
},
"execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"df_train.describe()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 27,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 1152x720 with 2 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Let's check the correlation coefficients to see which variables are highly
correlated\n",
"\n",
"plt.figure(figsize = (16, 10))\n",
"sns.heatmap(df_train.corr(), annot = True, cmap=\"YlGnBu\")\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"As you might have noticed, `area` seems to the correlated to `price` the most.
Let's see a pairplot for `area` vs `price`."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 28,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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RBZicCcistD/B7Ssmm45kIQ3AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x432 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"plt.figure(figsize=[6,6])\n",
"plt.scatter(df_train.area, df_train.price)\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"So, we pick `area` as the first variable and we'll try to fit a regression
line to that."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Dividing into X and Y sets for the model building"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 29,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"y_train = df_train.pop('price')\n",
"X_train = df_train"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 5: Building a linear model\n",
"\n",
"Fit a regression line through the training data using `statsmodels`. Remember
that in `statsmodels`, you need to explicitly fit a constant using
`sm.add_constant(X)` because if we don't perform this step, `statsmodels` fits a
regression line passing through the origin, by default."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 30,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
"\n",
"# Add a constant\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X_train[['area']])\n",
"\n",
"# Create a first fitted model\n",
"lr = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 31,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"const 0.126894\n",
"area 0.462192\n",
"dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 31,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Check the parameters obtained\n",
"\n",
"lr.params"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 32,
"metadata": {
"scrolled": true
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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9NBn9AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Let's visualise the data with a scatter plot and the fitted regression
line\n",
"plt.scatter(X_train_lm.iloc[:, 1], y_train)\n",
"plt.plot(X_train_lm.iloc[:, 1], 0.127 + 0.462*X_train_lm.iloc[:, 1], 'r')\n",
"plt.show()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 33,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.283\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.281\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
149.6\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 3.15e-
29\n",
"Time: 13:02:46 Log-Likelihood:
227.23\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-450.5\n",
"Df Residuals: 379 BIC:
-442.6\n",
"Df Model: 1
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
"const 0.1269 0.013 9.853 0.000 0.102
0.152\n",
"area 0.4622 0.038 12.232 0.000 0.388
0.536\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 67.313 Durbin-Watson:
2.018\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
143.063\n",
"Skew: 0.925 Prob(JB): 8.59e-
32\n",
"Kurtosis: 5.365 Cond. No.
5.99\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# Print a summary of the linear regression model obtained\n",
"print(lr.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Adding another variable\n",
"\n",
"The R-squared value obtained is `0.283`. Since we have so many variables, we
can clearly do better than this. So let's go ahead and add the second most highly
correlated variable, i.e. `bathrooms`."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 34,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Assign all the feature variables to X\n",
"X_train_lm = X_train[['area', 'bathrooms']]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 35,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"const 0.104589\n",
"area 0.398396\n",
"bathrooms 0.298374\n",
"dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 35,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Build a linear model\n",
"\n",
"import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X_train_lm)\n",
"\n",
"lr = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()\n",
"\n",
"lr.params"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 36,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.480\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.477\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
174.1\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 2.51e-
54\n",
"Time: 13:02:47 Log-Likelihood:
288.24\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-570.5\n",
"Df Residuals: 378 BIC:
-558.6\n",
"Df Model: 2
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
"const 0.1046 0.011 9.384 0.000 0.083
0.127\n",
"area 0.3984 0.033 12.192 0.000 0.334
0.463\n",
"bathrooms 0.2984 0.025 11.945 0.000 0.249
0.347\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 62.839 Durbin-Watson:
2.157\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
168.790\n",
"Skew: 0.784 Prob(JB): 2.23e-
37\n",
"Kurtosis: 5.859 Cond. No.
6.17\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# Check the summary\n",
"print(lr.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We have clearly improved the model as the value of adjusted R-squared as its
value has gone up to `0.477` from `0.281`.\n",
"Let's go ahead and add another variable, `bedrooms`."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 37,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Assign all the feature variables to X\n",
"X_train_lm = X_train[['area', 'bathrooms','bedrooms']]"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 38,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"const 0.041352\n",
"area 0.392211\n",
"bathrooms 0.259978\n",
"bedrooms 0.181863\n",
"dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 38,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Build a linear model\n",
"\n",
"import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X_train_lm)\n",
"\n",
"lr = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()\n",
"\n",
"lr.params"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 39,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.505\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.501\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
128.2\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 3.12e-
57\n",
"Time: 13:02:47 Log-Likelihood:
297.76\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-587.5\n",
"Df Residuals: 377 BIC:
-571.7\n",
"Df Model: 3
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n",
"const 0.0414 0.018 2.292 0.022 0.006
0.077\n",
"area 0.3922 0.032 12.279 0.000 0.329
0.455\n",
"bathrooms 0.2600 0.026 10.033 0.000 0.209
0.311\n",
"bedrooms 0.1819 0.041 4.396 0.000 0.101
0.263\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 50.037 Durbin-Watson:
2.136\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
124.806\n",
"Skew: 0.648 Prob(JB): 7.92e-
28\n",
"Kurtosis: 5.487 Cond. No.
8.87\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# Print the summary of the model\n",
"\n",
"print(lr.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We have improved the adjusted R-squared again. Now let's go ahead and add all
the feature variables."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Adding all the variables to the model"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 40,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Index(['price', 'area', 'bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'stories', 'mainroad',\n",
" 'guestroom', 'basement', 'hotwaterheating', 'airconditioning',\n",
" 'parking', 'prefarea', 'semi-furnished', 'unfurnished'],\n",
" dtype='object')"
]
},
"execution_count": 40,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Check all the columns of the dataframe\n",
"\n",
"housing.columns"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 41,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"const 0.020033\n",
"area 0.234664\n",
"bedrooms 0.046735\n",
"bathrooms 0.190823\n",
"stories 0.108516\n",
"mainroad 0.050441\n",
"guestroom 0.030428\n",
"basement 0.021595\n",
"hotwaterheating 0.084863\n",
"airconditioning 0.066881\n",
"parking 0.060735\n",
"prefarea 0.059428\n",
"semi-furnished 0.000921\n",
"unfurnished -0.031006\n",
"dtype: float64"
]
},
"execution_count": 41,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"#Build a linear model\n",
"\n",
"import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X_train)\n",
"\n",
"lr_1 = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()\n",
"\n",
"lr_1.params"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 42,
"metadata": {
"scrolled": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.681\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.670\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
60.40\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 8.83e-
83\n",
"Time: 13:02:47 Log-Likelihood:
381.79\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-735.6\n",
"Df Residuals: 367 BIC:
-680.4\n",
"Df Model: 13
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==================================================================================
=\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-\n",
"const 0.0200 0.021 0.955 0.340 -0.021
0.061\n",
"area 0.2347 0.030 7.795 0.000 0.175
0.294\n",
"bedrooms 0.0467 0.037 1.267 0.206 -0.026
0.119\n",
"bathrooms 0.1908 0.022 8.679 0.000 0.148
0.234\n",
"stories 0.1085 0.019 5.661 0.000 0.071
0.146\n",
"mainroad 0.0504 0.014 3.520 0.000 0.022
0.079\n",
"guestroom 0.0304 0.014 2.233 0.026 0.004
0.057\n",
"basement 0.0216 0.011 1.943 0.053 -0.000
0.043\n",
"hotwaterheating 0.0849 0.022 3.934 0.000 0.042
0.127\n",
"airconditioning 0.0669 0.011 5.899 0.000 0.045
0.089\n",
"parking 0.0607 0.018 3.365 0.001 0.025
0.096\n",
"prefarea 0.0594 0.012 5.040 0.000 0.036
0.083\n",
"semi-furnished 0.0009 0.012 0.078 0.938 -0.022
0.024\n",
"unfurnished -0.0310 0.013 -2.440 0.015 -0.056
-0.006\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 93.687 Durbin-Watson:
2.093\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
304.917\n",
"Skew: 1.091 Prob(JB): 6.14e-
67\n",
"Kurtosis: 6.801 Cond. No.
14.6\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"print(lr_1.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Looking at the p-values, it looks like some of the variables aren't really
significant (in the presence of other variables).\n",
"\n",
"Maybe we could drop some?\n",
"\n",
"We could simply drop the variable with the highest, non-significant p value. A
better way would be to supplement this with the VIF information. "
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Checking VIF\n",
"\n",
"Variance Inflation Factor or VIF, gives a basic quantitative idea about how
much the feature variables are correlated with each other. It is an extremely
important parameter to test our linear model. The formula for calculating `VIF`
is:\n",
"\n",
"### $ VIF_i = \\frac{1}{1 - {R_i}^2} $"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 43,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Check for the VIF values of the feature variables. \n",
"from statsmodels.stats.outliers_influence import variance_inflation_factor"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 44,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Features</th>\n",
" <th>VIF</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>bedrooms</td>\n",
" <td>7.33</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>mainroad</td>\n",
" <td>6.02</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>area</td>\n",
" <td>4.67</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>stories</td>\n",
" <td>2.70</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>11</th>\n",
" <td>semi-furnished</td>\n",
" <td>2.19</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>9</th>\n",
" <td>parking</td>\n",
" <td>2.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>basement</td>\n",
" <td>2.02</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>12</th>\n",
" <td>unfurnished</td>\n",
" <td>1.82</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>airconditioning</td>\n",
" <td>1.77</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>bathrooms</td>\n",
" <td>1.67</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>10</th>\n",
" <td>prefarea</td>\n",
" <td>1.51</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>5</th>\n",
" <td>guestroom</td>\n",
" <td>1.47</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>7</th>\n",
" <td>hotwaterheating</td>\n",
" <td>1.14</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Features VIF\n",
"1 bedrooms 7.33\n",
"4 mainroad 6.02\n",
"0 area 4.67\n",
"3 stories 2.70\n",
"11 semi-furnished 2.19\n",
"9 parking 2.12\n",
"6 basement 2.02\n",
"12 unfurnished 1.82\n",
"8 airconditioning 1.77\n",
"2 bathrooms 1.67\n",
"10 prefarea 1.51\n",
"5 guestroom 1.47\n",
"7 hotwaterheating 1.14"
]
},
"execution_count": 44,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Create a dataframe that will contain the names of all the feature variables
and their respective VIFs\n",
"vif = pd.DataFrame()\n",
"vif['Features'] = X_train.columns\n",
"vif['VIF'] = [variance_inflation_factor(X_train.values, i) for i in
range(X_train.shape[1])]\n",
"vif['VIF'] = round(vif['VIF'], 2)\n",
"vif = vif.sort_values(by = \"VIF\", ascending = False)\n",
"vif"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"We generally want a VIF that is less than 5. So there are clearly some
variables we need to drop."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Dropping the variable and updating the model\n",
"\n",
"As you can see from the summary and the VIF dataframe, some variables are
still insignificant. One of these variables is, `semi-furnished` as it has a very
high p-value of `0.938`. Let's go ahead and drop this variables"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 45,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Dropping highly correlated variables and insignificant variables\n",
"\n",
"X = X_train.drop('semi-furnished', 1,)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 46,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Build a third fitted model\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X)\n",
"\n",
"lr_2 = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 47,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.681\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.671\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
65.61\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 1.07e-
83\n",
"Time: 13:02:48 Log-Likelihood:
381.79\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-737.6\n",
"Df Residuals: 368 BIC:
-686.3\n",
"Df Model: 12
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==================================================================================
=\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-\n",
"const 0.0207 0.019 1.098 0.273 -0.016
0.058\n",
"area 0.2344 0.030 7.845 0.000 0.176
0.293\n",
"bedrooms 0.0467 0.037 1.268 0.206 -0.026
0.119\n",
"bathrooms 0.1909 0.022 8.697 0.000 0.148
0.234\n",
"stories 0.1085 0.019 5.669 0.000 0.071
0.146\n",
"mainroad 0.0504 0.014 3.524 0.000 0.022
0.079\n",
"guestroom 0.0304 0.014 2.238 0.026 0.004
0.057\n",
"basement 0.0216 0.011 1.946 0.052 -0.000
0.043\n",
"hotwaterheating 0.0849 0.022 3.941 0.000 0.043
0.127\n",
"airconditioning 0.0668 0.011 5.923 0.000 0.045
0.089\n",
"parking 0.0608 0.018 3.372 0.001 0.025
0.096\n",
"prefarea 0.0594 0.012 5.046 0.000 0.036
0.083\n",
"unfurnished -0.0316 0.010 -3.096 0.002 -0.052
-0.012\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 93.538 Durbin-Watson:
2.092\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
303.844\n",
"Skew: 1.090 Prob(JB): 1.05e-
66\n",
"Kurtosis: 6.794 Cond. No.
14.1\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# Print the summary of the model\n",
"print(lr_2.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 48,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Features</th>\n",
" <th>VIF</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>bedrooms</td>\n",
" <td>6.59</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>mainroad</td>\n",
" <td>5.68</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>area</td>\n",
" <td>4.67</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>stories</td>\n",
" <td>2.69</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>9</th>\n",
" <td>parking</td>\n",
" <td>2.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>basement</td>\n",
" <td>2.01</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>airconditioning</td>\n",
" <td>1.77</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>bathrooms</td>\n",
" <td>1.67</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>10</th>\n",
" <td>prefarea</td>\n",
" <td>1.51</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>5</th>\n",
" <td>guestroom</td>\n",
" <td>1.47</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>11</th>\n",
" <td>unfurnished</td>\n",
" <td>1.40</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>7</th>\n",
" <td>hotwaterheating</td>\n",
" <td>1.14</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Features VIF\n",
"1 bedrooms 6.59\n",
"4 mainroad 5.68\n",
"0 area 4.67\n",
"3 stories 2.69\n",
"9 parking 2.12\n",
"6 basement 2.01\n",
"8 airconditioning 1.77\n",
"2 bathrooms 1.67\n",
"10 prefarea 1.51\n",
"5 guestroom 1.47\n",
"11 unfurnished 1.40\n",
"7 hotwaterheating 1.14"
]
},
"execution_count": 48,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Calculate the VIFs again for the new model\n",
"\n",
"vif = pd.DataFrame()\n",
"vif['Features'] = X.columns\n",
"vif['VIF'] = [variance_inflation_factor(X.values, i) for i in
range(X.shape[1])]\n",
"vif['VIF'] = round(vif['VIF'], 2)\n",
"vif = vif.sort_values(by = \"VIF\", ascending = False)\n",
"vif"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Dropping the Variable and Updating the Model\n",
"\n",
"As you can notice some of the variable have high VIF values as well as high p-
values. Such variables are insignificant and should be dropped.\n",
"\n",
"As you might have noticed, the variable `bedroom` has a significantly high VIF
(`6.6`) and a high p-value (`0.206`) as well. Hence, this variable isn't of much
use and should be dropped."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 49,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Dropping highly correlated variables and insignificant variables\n",
"X = X.drop('bedrooms', 1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 50,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Build a second fitted model\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X)\n",
"\n",
"lr_3 = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 51,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.680\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.671\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
71.31\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 2.73e-
84\n",
"Time: 13:02:48 Log-Likelihood:
380.96\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-737.9\n",
"Df Residuals: 369 BIC:
-690.6\n",
"Df Model: 11
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==================================================================================
=\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-\n",
"const 0.0357 0.015 2.421 0.016 0.007
0.065\n",
"area 0.2347 0.030 7.851 0.000 0.176
0.294\n",
"bathrooms 0.1965 0.022 9.132 0.000 0.154
0.239\n",
"stories 0.1178 0.018 6.654 0.000 0.083
0.153\n",
"mainroad 0.0488 0.014 3.423 0.001 0.021
0.077\n",
"guestroom 0.0301 0.014 2.211 0.028 0.003
0.057\n",
"basement 0.0239 0.011 2.183 0.030 0.002
0.045\n",
"hotwaterheating 0.0864 0.022 4.014 0.000 0.044
0.129\n",
"airconditioning 0.0665 0.011 5.895 0.000 0.044
0.089\n",
"parking 0.0629 0.018 3.501 0.001 0.028
0.098\n",
"prefarea 0.0596 0.012 5.061 0.000 0.036
0.083\n",
"unfurnished -0.0323 0.010 -3.169 0.002 -0.052
-0.012\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 97.661 Durbin-Watson:
2.097\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
325.388\n",
"Skew: 1.130 Prob(JB): 2.20e-
71\n",
"Kurtosis: 6.923 Cond. No.
10.6\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"# Print the summary of the model\n",
"\n",
"print(lr_3.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 52,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Features</th>\n",
" <th>VIF</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>mainroad</td>\n",
" <td>4.79</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>area</td>\n",
" <td>4.55</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>stories</td>\n",
" <td>2.23</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>parking</td>\n",
" <td>2.10</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>5</th>\n",
" <td>basement</td>\n",
" <td>1.87</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>7</th>\n",
" <td>airconditioning</td>\n",
" <td>1.76</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>bathrooms</td>\n",
" <td>1.61</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>9</th>\n",
" <td>prefarea</td>\n",
" <td>1.50</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>guestroom</td>\n",
" <td>1.46</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>10</th>\n",
" <td>unfurnished</td>\n",
" <td>1.33</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>hotwaterheating</td>\n",
" <td>1.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Features VIF\n",
"3 mainroad 4.79\n",
"0 area 4.55\n",
"2 stories 2.23\n",
"8 parking 2.10\n",
"5 basement 1.87\n",
"7 airconditioning 1.76\n",
"1 bathrooms 1.61\n",
"9 prefarea 1.50\n",
"4 guestroom 1.46\n",
"10 unfurnished 1.33\n",
"6 hotwaterheating 1.12"
]
},
"execution_count": 52,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Calculate the VIFs again for the new model\n",
"vif = pd.DataFrame()\n",
"vif['Features'] = X.columns\n",
"vif['VIF'] = [variance_inflation_factor(X.values, i) for i in
range(X.shape[1])]\n",
"vif['VIF'] = round(vif['VIF'], 2)\n",
"vif = vif.sort_values(by = \"VIF\", ascending = False)\n",
"vif"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"### Dropping the variable and updating the model"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"As you might have noticed, dropping `semi-furnised` decreased the VIF of
`mainroad` as well such that it is now under 5. But from the summary, we can still
see some of them have a high p-value. `basement` for instance, has a p-value of
0.03. We should drop this variable as well."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 53,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"X = X.drop('basement', 1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 54,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Build a fourth fitted model\n",
"X_train_lm = sm.add_constant(X)\n",
"\n",
"lr_4 = sm.OLS(y_train, X_train_lm).fit()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 55,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
" OLS Regression Results
\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Dep. Variable: price R-squared:
0.676\n",
"Model: OLS Adj. R-squared:
0.667\n",
"Method: Least Squares F-statistic:
77.18\n",
"Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 Prob (F-statistic): 3.13e-
84\n",
"Time: 13:02:49 Log-Likelihood:
378.51\n",
"No. Observations: 381 AIC:
-735.0\n",
"Df Residuals: 370 BIC:
-691.7\n",
"Df Model: 10
\n",
"Covariance Type: nonrobust
\n",

"==================================================================================
=\n",
" coef std err t P>|t| [0.025
0.975]\n",

"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-\n",
"const 0.0428 0.014 2.958 0.003 0.014
0.071\n",
"area 0.2335 0.030 7.772 0.000 0.174
0.293\n",
"bathrooms 0.2019 0.021 9.397 0.000 0.160
0.244\n",
"stories 0.1081 0.017 6.277 0.000 0.074
0.142\n",
"mainroad 0.0497 0.014 3.468 0.001 0.022
0.078\n",
"guestroom 0.0402 0.013 3.124 0.002 0.015
0.065\n",
"hotwaterheating 0.0876 0.022 4.051 0.000 0.045
0.130\n",
"airconditioning 0.0682 0.011 6.028 0.000 0.046
0.090\n",
"parking 0.0629 0.018 3.482 0.001 0.027
0.098\n",
"prefarea 0.0637 0.012 5.452 0.000 0.041
0.087\n",
"unfurnished -0.0337 0.010 -3.295 0.001 -0.054
-0.014\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"Omnibus: 97.054 Durbin-Watson:
2.099\n",
"Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB):
322.034\n",
"Skew: 1.124 Prob(JB): 1.18e-
70\n",
"Kurtosis: 6.902 Cond. No.
10.3\n",

"==============================================================================\n",
"\n",
"Warnings:\n",
"[1] Standard Errors assume that the covariance matrix of the errors is
correctly specified.\n"
]
}
],
"source": [
"print(lr_4.summary())"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 56,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Features</th>\n",
" <th>VIF</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>mainroad</td>\n",
" <td>4.55</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>area</td>\n",
" <td>4.54</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>stories</td>\n",
" <td>2.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>7</th>\n",
" <td>parking</td>\n",
" <td>2.10</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>6</th>\n",
" <td>airconditioning</td>\n",
" <td>1.75</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>bathrooms</td>\n",
" <td>1.58</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>8</th>\n",
" <td>prefarea</td>\n",
" <td>1.47</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>9</th>\n",
" <td>unfurnished</td>\n",
" <td>1.33</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>guestroom</td>\n",
" <td>1.30</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>5</th>\n",
" <td>hotwaterheating</td>\n",
" <td>1.12</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Features VIF\n",
"3 mainroad 4.55\n",
"0 area 4.54\n",
"2 stories 2.12\n",
"7 parking 2.10\n",
"6 airconditioning 1.75\n",
"1 bathrooms 1.58\n",
"8 prefarea 1.47\n",
"9 unfurnished 1.33\n",
"4 guestroom 1.30\n",
"5 hotwaterheating 1.12"
]
},
"execution_count": 56,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"# Calculate the VIFs again for the new model\n",
"vif = pd.DataFrame()\n",
"vif['Features'] = X.columns\n",
"vif['VIF'] = [variance_inflation_factor(X.values, i) for i in
range(X.shape[1])]\n",
"vif['VIF'] = round(vif['VIF'], 2)\n",
"vif = vif.sort_values(by = \"VIF\", ascending = False)\n",
"vif"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Now as you can see, the VIFs and p-values both are within an acceptable range.
So we go ahead and make our predictions using this model only."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 7: Residual Analysis of the train data\n",
"\n",
"So, now to check if the error terms are also normally distributed (which is
infact, one of the major assumptions of linear regression), let us plot the
histogram of the error terms and see what it looks like."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 57,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"y_train_price = lr_4.predict(X_train_lm)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 58,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"name": "stderr",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"C:\\Users\\admin\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-
packages\\matplotlib\\axes\\_axes.py:6462: UserWarning: The 'normed' kwarg is
deprecated, and has been replaced by the 'density' kwarg.\n",
" warnings.warn(\"The 'normed' kwarg is deprecated, and has been \"\n"
]
},
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Text(0.5,0,'Errors')"
]
},
"execution_count": 58,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
},
{
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Plot the histogram of the error terms\n",
"fig = plt.figure()\n",
"sns.distplot((y_train - y_train_price), bins = 20)\n",
"fig.suptitle('Error Terms', fontsize = 20) # Plot heading
\n",
"plt.xlabel('Errors', fontsize = 18) # X-label"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 8: Making Predictions Using the Final Model\n",
"\n",
"Now that we have fitted the model and checked the normality of error terms,
it's time to go ahead and make predictions using the final, i.e. fourth model."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"#### Applying the scaling on the test sets"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 59,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"num_vars = ['area', 'bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'stories', 'parking','price']\n",
"\n",
"df_test[num_vars] = scaler.transform(df_test[num_vars])"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 60,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
" vertical-align: middle;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
" vertical-align: top;\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
" text-align: right;\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>price</th>\n",
" <th>area</th>\n",
" <th>bedrooms</th>\n",
" <th>bathrooms</th>\n",
" <th>stories</th>\n",
" <th>mainroad</th>\n",
" <th>guestroom</th>\n",
" <th>basement</th>\n",
" <th>hotwaterheating</th>\n",
" <th>airconditioning</th>\n",
" <th>parking</th>\n",
" <th>prefarea</th>\n",
" <th>semi-furnished</th>\n",
" <th>unfurnished</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>count</th>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" <td>164.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>mean</th>\n",
" <td>0.263176</td>\n",
" <td>0.298548</td>\n",
" <td>0.408537</td>\n",
" <td>0.158537</td>\n",
" <td>0.268293</td>\n",
" <td>0.865854</td>\n",
" <td>0.195122</td>\n",
" <td>0.347561</td>\n",
" <td>0.030488</td>\n",
" <td>0.353659</td>\n",
" <td>0.205285</td>\n",
" <td>0.237805</td>\n",
" <td>0.420732</td>\n",
" <td>0.329268</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>std</th>\n",
" <td>0.172077</td>\n",
" <td>0.211922</td>\n",
" <td>0.147537</td>\n",
" <td>0.281081</td>\n",
" <td>0.276007</td>\n",
" <td>0.341853</td>\n",
" <td>0.397508</td>\n",
" <td>0.477654</td>\n",
" <td>0.172452</td>\n",
" <td>0.479569</td>\n",
" <td>0.289322</td>\n",
" <td>0.427043</td>\n",
" <td>0.495189</td>\n",
" <td>0.471387</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>min</th>\n",
" <td>0.006061</td>\n",
" <td>-0.016367</td>\n",
" <td>0.200000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>25%</th>\n",
" <td>0.142424</td>\n",
" <td>0.148011</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>50%</th>\n",
" <td>0.226061</td>\n",
" <td>0.259724</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>75%</th>\n",
" <td>0.346970</td>\n",
" <td>0.397439</td>\n",
" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
" <td>0.500000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>max</th>\n",
" <td>0.909091</td>\n",
" <td>1.263992</td>\n",
" <td>0.800000</td>\n",
" <td>1.500000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" price area bedrooms bathrooms stories
mainroad \\\n",
"count 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000
164.000000 \n",
"mean 0.263176 0.298548 0.408537 0.158537 0.268293
0.865854 \n",
"std 0.172077 0.211922 0.147537 0.281081 0.276007
0.341853 \n",
"min 0.006061 -0.016367 0.200000 0.000000 0.000000
0.000000 \n",
"25% 0.142424 0.148011 0.400000 0.000000 0.000000
1.000000 \n",
"50% 0.226061 0.259724 0.400000 0.000000 0.333333
1.000000 \n",
"75% 0.346970 0.397439 0.400000 0.500000 0.333333
1.000000 \n",
"max 0.909091 1.263992 0.800000 1.500000 1.000000
1.000000 \n",
"\n",
" guestroom basement hotwaterheating airconditioning parking
\\\n",
"count 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000
\n",
"mean 0.195122 0.347561 0.030488 0.353659 0.205285
\n",
"std 0.397508 0.477654 0.172452 0.479569 0.289322
\n",
"min 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"25% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"50% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
\n",
"75% 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.333333
\n",
"max 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000
\n",
"\n",
" prefarea semi-furnished unfurnished \n",
"count 164.000000 164.000000 164.000000 \n",
"mean 0.237805 0.420732 0.329268 \n",
"std 0.427043 0.495189 0.471387 \n",
"min 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"25% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"50% 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 \n",
"75% 0.000000 1.000000 1.000000 \n",
"max 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 "
]
},
"execution_count": 60,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"df_test.describe()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"#### Dividing into X_test and y_test"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 61,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"y_test = df_test.pop('price')\n",
"X_test = df_test"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 62,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Adding constant variable to test dataframe\n",
"X_test_m4 = sm.add_constant(X_test)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 63,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Creating X_test_m4 dataframe by dropping variables from X_test_m4\n",
"\n",
"X_test_m4 = X_test_m4.drop([\"bedrooms\", \"semi-furnished\", \"basement\"],
axis = 1)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 64,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"# Making predictions using the fourth model\n",
"\n",
"y_pred_m4 = lr_4.predict(X_test_m4)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Step 9: Model Evaluation\n",
"\n",
"Let's now plot the graph for actual versus predicted values."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 65,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Text(0,0.5,'y_pred')"
]
},
"execution_count": 65,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
},
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"# Plotting y_test and y_pred to understand the spread\n",
"\n",
"fig = plt.figure()\n",
"plt.scatter(y_test, y_pred_m4)\n",
"fig.suptitle('y_test vs y_pred', fontsize = 20) # Plot heading
\n",
"plt.xlabel('y_test', fontsize = 18) # X-label\n",
"plt.ylabel('y_pred', fontsize = 16) "
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"\n",
"We can see that the equation of our best fitted line is:\n",
"\n",
"$ price = 0.236 \\times area + 0.202 \\times bathrooms + 0.11 \\times
stories + 0.05 \\times mainroad + 0.04 \\times guestroom + 0.0876 \\times
hotwaterheating + 0.0682 \\times airconditioning + 0.0629 \\times parking +
0.0637 \\times prefarea - 0.0337 \\times unfurnished $\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Overall we have a decent model, but we also acknowledge that we could do
better. \n",
"\n",
"We have a couple of options:\n",
"1. Add new features (bathrooms/bedrooms, area/stories, etc.)\n",
"2. Build a non-linear model"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Created By: Shifali Sharma\n",
"\n",
"##### shifali.cse@cumail.in"
]
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
"language_info": {
"codemirror_mode": {
"name": "ipython",
"version": 3
},
"file_extension": ".py",
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.7.3"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
"nbformat_minor": 2
}

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