SYRIAN CONFLICT

Context:
Post 2011 Arab Spring Uprising, the violent civil war began
Geography:

Demography:
Ethnicity: 90% Arabs
Religion: Muslim 87% (official; includes Sunni 74% and Alawi, Ismaili, and Shia
13%), Christian 10% (includes Orthodox, Uniate, and Nestorian), Druze 3%,
Jewish(few remaining in Damascus and Aleppo) source: index mundi
Key actors:
Three different levels to understand the crisis:
1. Civil war:
 Rebel (mostly sunnis and majority) vs Loyalists (rely on the Alawite sect
of Shia Islam and control big cities and sea-front)
2. Cold war:
 The US plus the EU back up the Syrian National Coalition vs China and
Russia (Assad’s allies who have blocked two resolutions on Syria and
Moscow supplies militarily)
i. Russian interests:
1. Economic: Assad is an old client for Russian military industry
2. Strategic: The Tartous harbour is the last Russian access to
the Mediterranean Sea
3. Geopolitical: Kremlin did not appreciate Nato’s intervention
in Libya. Putin does not want such an event right in his area
of influence

3. Holy War:
 Saudi Arabia sees in the Syrian crises a way to weaken Iran (first ally of
Syria).
 Qatar and S.A. delivered weapons to rebels through Jordan and Turkey
 Huge support to radical groups like Al-Nusra and Ahrar-al-Sham
 Turkey allowed ISIS to Syria back through its territory
 Iran to Syria: military weapons, advisors and money and its group
Hezbollah is fighting along with Syrian army
Important points to be noted:
 The Syrian opposition seems to be going an obvious distance away from the
earlier ‘Assad must go’ or ‘Bomb Assad’ mantra
 The collapse of the Assad Regime would be the worst possible outcome for
American interests. Real threat is the ISIS
 Few points to consider before going for a solution:
o Assad is a crucial part of the solution to end the Syrian conflict
o ISIS is the real threat not Assad
o Everybody has to bend: there have to be a middle ground, a
compromise
o Efforts to end the conflict cannot be undertaken by any of the
concerned or involved parties, in the region or beyond. A coordinated
effort of everyone is needed
o A fresh look over the crisis from P5 and R5 is essential for the solution
o Optimism of Iran Nuclear Deal may help reach a consensus between
the US and Iran on the conflict
o Even after the Assad’s collapse, the rebel groups will fight with one
another to start another civil war
Solution:
Six Steps:
1. Agreement on general, reasonable principles such as: 1) Preserving the unity
and territorial integrity of Syria; 2) Preserving Syrian state institutions,
including the army and the civil service; 3) Engaging all Syrian stakeholders in
the political process; 4) Exploring the middle ground through boosting
moderates; 5) Ending safe havens for terrorists in Syria; 6) Ending the
provision of arms and finances to the violent opposition;7) Ensuring the
rights of minorities; 8) Enhancing humanitarian assistances; 9) Working for a
power sharing system; and 10) Exploring a practicable formula for peaceful
political transition.
2. The formation of a broad-based forum comprised of moderate, non-violent
opposition groups and the government.
3. The declaration of a ceasefire to be monitored by international observers.
4. The expansion of badly needed humanitarian assistance.
5. The implementation of the above agreements and steps through the
formation of a transitional governing body.
6. UN-organized and supervised free elections.
Huffington Post’s: to solve the Syrian Crisis, we need to overcome these three
obstacles:
1. What to do with Assad
2. How to effectively fight terror groups in Syria (air strikes are only effective
when conducted with ground support; a coalition between Syrian Army and
Nato is crucial)
3. Extremists movements’ ties to West’s allies (extremists sunni movements i.e.
Al Qaeda and the ISIS draw their ideology, weapons, and finance from the
closest allies of the West in the region)
Refugee crisis needs concrete solutions:
1. Increase funding for humanitarian assistance
2. Get countries to admit more refugees through settlement or alternative legal
pathways
3. Increase refugees access to education and legal work
Important news or statements:
 US does not have solution to Syrian crisis: CIA director
Current events:
 At the start of 2016, Moscow and Washington agreed on a truce
 Again in Sept a truce was agreed but violated
 In Oct, the two countries are trying for the truce

Timeline:
https://www.rt.com/news/335711-rt-syrian-war-timeline/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14703995
Who is fighting who:
http://www.dawn.com/news/1280157
Yemen crisis backgrounder:
http://www.cfr.org/yemen/yemen-crisis/p36488