r FORM TP 2016139 %.

TEST CODE O21O5O2O

MAY/JUNE 2OI6
-l
CARIBBEAN EXAMINATIONS COUNCIL
CARIBBEAN ADVANCED PROFICIENCY EXAMINATIONO

APPLIED MATHEMATICS
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
UNIT I -Paper02
2 hours 30 minutes

READ THE FOLLOWING INSTRUCTIONS CAREFULLY.

I This paper consists of THREE sections. Answer ALL questions from the THREE
sections.

2. Write your answers in the spaces provided in this booklet.

J Do NOT write in the margins

4 Unless otherwise stated in the question, all numerical answers MUST be given exactly
OR to three significant figures as appropriate.

5 If you need to rewrite any answer and there is not enough space to do so on the original
page, you must use the extra page(s) provided at the back of this booklet. Remember
to draw a line through your original answer.

6 If you use the extra page(s) you MUST write the question number clearly in the
box provided at the top of the extra page(s) and, where relevant, include the
question part beside the answer.

Examination Materials:

Mathematical formulae and tables (Revised 2010)

Electronic calculator
Ruler and graph paper

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO.

Copyright @ 2014 Caribbean Examinations Council

All rights reserved.

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021 0502003
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SECTION A
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MODULE 1: COLLECTING AND DESCRIBING DATA

Answer BOTH questions.

l. (a) A random sample of 25 students was taken from the fifth forms of a certain school in
proportion to the number of students in each form. The data collected were classified as
the following three variables:

X: the number of CSEC subjects each student was studying

Iz: the favourite subject being studied

Z: the distance each student travelled from home to school each day

State

(i) the population of interest

[1 markl

(ii) the sampling method that was used to collect the data

[1 markl

(iii) the variable which is qualitative

[1 markl

(iv) the variable which is continuous

I markl

(v) the variable which is discrete.

[1 markl

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02r05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502004 J
r (b)
5

The following pie chart, not drawn to scale, shows the distribution of some of the favourite
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foods of the residents at a home for the elderly. (Give ALL answers to the nearest whole
number.)

Other l2o/o
a a Yam l87o
oroo
oaoa a
x to?o
Cassava X X a
X x
x X X
x

Potato 32oh
Soup l67o

(i) Calculate the angle of the sector which represents those persons who love potato.

[2 marksl

(ii) If l0 persons from the home love yam, determine the total number of persons who
live in the home.

[3 marksl

(iii) Calculate the number of persons who love cassava

[3 marksl

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02t05020tcAPE 2016

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021 0502005
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r (c)
-6- -l
The following table shows the frequency distribution of the ages of persons who were
booked to go on an island tour.

Age of Persons Number of Persons

(years)

5-14 7

t5-24 16

25-3,4 28

3544 l8

45-54 l3

55-64 l0

65-84 8

(i) State a disadvantage of displaying this data in groups as shown.

[1 markl

(ii) On the grid provided on page7, draw a clearly labelled histogram showing the
information in the table above.

Use a scale of I cm = 5 years and 2 cm = 5 persons. [8 marksl

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502006 J
 r -7 - -l

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Age ofpersons (years)

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0210502007
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(iiD Use the histogram to estimate the mode of the ages.

[3 marksl

Total25 marks

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502008 I
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2. (a)
-9-

State which ONE of the mean, median and mode

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(i) may be determined from qualitative data

I markl

(ii) is affected by extreme values

[1 markl

(iii) may have the largest value for a given set of data.

[1 markl

(b) State which ONE of the range, interquartile range and variance

(i) is influenced most by extreme values

I mark]

(ii) may be obtained by squaring the standard deviation

[1 markl

(iii) is the middle 50Yo of the distribution

I markl

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02105020/CAPE 2016

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0210502009 J
r (c)
-l0-

A sample of 36 data values, .r, gave I(x - 45) : -148 and l(.r - 45)': 3 089.
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(i) Calculate estimates for the mean.

[3 marksl

(ii) Calculate the estimates for the standard deviation of the data.

[3 marksl

(iii) Another data value,.r: 29, was added to the values. Calculate values for the mean
and the standard deviation of the 37 values.

[5 marksl

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02t0s020lcAPE 2016

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0210502010 I
r (d)
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The frequency distribution of the number of marbles per packet in a random sample of 50
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packets is shown in the following table.

Number of Marbles per Packet (x) l3 t4 l5 16 t7

Frequency, (fl 2 9 l9 t2 8

(i) Determine the median number of marbles per packet.

[2 marksl

(ii) Determine the mode of the distribution.

I mark]

(iii) Calculate the mean number of marbles per packet.

[4 marksl

(iv) Describe the shape of the distribution.

[1 markl

Total25 marks

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021050201cAPB2016

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SECTION B
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MODULE 2: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY

Answer BOTH questions.

3. (a) The effect of taking an antidepressant drug varies from person to person. [t is known that
70o/oof the persons who use the drug are women. It is also known that 80% ofthe women
and 65%o of the men who use the drug find it to be effective.

The tree diagram below shows this information. The values not given are represented by
x,y and z.

Women

0.
effective

Effective

Man

Not Efiective

(i) Calculate the values of x, y and z.

[3 marksl

(ii) Calculate the probability that the drug is effective.

[3 marksl

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02r05020lcAPE 2016

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02't0502012 J
r (iii)
- 13 -

Given that the drug was effective, what is the probability that a person using the
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drug is a man?

[3 marksl

(b) A department store is analysing the method of payment that customers use to determine
whether there is a relation between the amount of money spent and the method of payment.
The information is displayed in the following table.

Cash Debit Card Credit Card

Under $50 9 J 4

$s0-$200 5 2r r8

Over $200 J 23 14

Calculate the probability that a person selected at random

(i) pays for his/her item with cash

[2 marksl

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02105020/CAPE 2016

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0210502013
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(ii) makes a purchase that costs between $50 and $200

[2 marksl
(iii) makes a purchase over $200 and pays with a debit card

[2 marksl

(iv) uses a credit card, given that the purchase was under $50.

[2 marksl

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02t0s020lcAPE 2016

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0210502014 J
r (c) Given two events R and S such that
- 15 -

P(R): 0.6, P(S): 0.5 and P(R n S): 0.20,

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(i) calculate P(RU ,S)

[2 marksl

(ii) determine P(R|^Y)

[2 marks]

(iii) state, with reason, whether R and ,S are mutually exclusive

[2 marks]

(iv) state, with reason, whether R and ^S

are independent.

[2 marksl

Total25 marks

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02t05020tcAPE 2016

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021 050201 5
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4. (a)
-16- -l
For EACH of the following, state, with reason, whether or not, it is a valid probability
distribution.

(i)
x 0 I 2 3

P(X: x) 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.5

[2 marksl

(ii)
x 0 I 2 3

P(X: x) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1

[2 marksl

(iii)
x 0 I 2 3

P(X= x) 0.25 0.46 0.24 0.18

[2 marksl

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02105020/CAPE 2016

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0210502016 J
r (b)
-17 - -l
The following graph, not drawn to scale, shows the probability density function,flx), of
a continuous random variable, X.

02 6 l0x

(i) Show that /r: l.7'

[2 marksl

(ii) Determine P(4 <X< 6).

[3 marksl

(c) A discrete random variable, X, has the following probability distribution.

.r I 2 4 8 l6

P(X = x) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1

(i) Calculate Va(,D.

[6 marksl

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02105020/CAPE 2016

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0210502017 J
r (ii)
- 18 -

Construct a cumulative distribution table for the random variable X.

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[2 marks]

(iii) Evaluate P(X>4).

[1 markl

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02t05020lcAPE20l6

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021 050201 8
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r (d)
-19-

Market research has shown that 60Yo of persons who are introduced to a certain product
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actually buy the product.

(i) If80 persons are introduced to the product, determine the number of persons who
are expected to buy the product.

12 marksl

(ii) From a random sample of l5 persons who were introduced to the product, calculate
the probability that exactly 9 will buy the product.

[3 marksl

Total25 marks

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502019
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SECTION C

MODULE 3: ANALYSING AND INTERPRETING DATA

Answer BOTH questions.

s. (a) The length of time, x, between the planting and germination of a type of pepper seed is
believed to have a normal distribution, with mean, p, and standard deviation, o. A random
sample of 49 such seeds was planted under identical conditions and the length of time
between planting and germination was measured. The following totals were recorded.

fx: 510, lf :5635

(i) Calculate unbiased estimates for the population mean, p.

[2 marks]

(ii) Calculate unbiased estimates for the standard deviation, o, of the length of time
between planting and germination.

[3 marksl

(iii) Construct a94Yo confidence interval for the mean length of time it takes for this
type of pepper seed to germinate.

[3 marks]

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502020
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(iv) Sixty random samples of 49 pepper seeds are taken and a95o/o confidence interval
for p is found for each sample. Determine the appropriate number of intervals
that will contain the population mean, p.

[2 marksl

(b) The mean of I 50 observations ofX, where X- Bin ( I 35, 0.36) is X. Use the central limit
theorem to state the distribution that is modelled byX, giving the values of its parameters.

[5 marksl

(c) A manufacturer claims that the mean mass of a certain type of soap bar produced is I I 0 g.
A random sample of I 8 such soap bars gave a mean mass of 105 g and a standard deviation
of 6.7 g. Test, at the 5% Ievel of significance, the hypothesis that the manufacturer is
overstating the mean.

O State, in symbols, appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for the test.

[3 marksl

(ii) Determine the critical region(s) for the test.

[3 marksl

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502021 J
r (iii)
-22 -

Calculate the value of the test statistic

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[2 marksl =i:'
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Total25 marks
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02105020/0APE 2016

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0210502022 I
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6. (a) The following contingency table summarizes the responses of a random sample of 500
prospective voters to a survey on voter preference for three candidates, P, Q and Z,
contesting a general election.

Candidate
Age of Voter Total
(years) P a z
l 8-30 45 t6 l3 74

3t4s 98 91 24 213

4ffio 33 70 29 132

Over 60 26 t2 43 81

Total 202 189 109 500

A ,(2 test is carried out to determine whether there is an association between the age of
the voter and the candidate preference ofthe voter.

Formulate null and alternate hypotheses for this test.

[2 marksl

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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r (b)
-24 -

The number of voters in the survey who are over 60 years old and have a preference for
-l
Candidate P is shown in the cell corresponding to row 4, column 1.

(i) Calculate, for this cell, the expected number of voters

[2 marksl

(ii) Calculate the I value for this cell.

[2 marksl

(iii) Determine the criticalregion of the test at the 5%o level of significance.

[3 marksl

(iv) Write a valid conclusion for the test, given that the value of the test statistic is
92.195.

[1 mark]

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02105020/CAPE 2016

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r (c)
-25 -

A used car dealer is investigating the relationship between the price of a particular model
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of car and its age. The following information was collected from a sample of eight cars
of this model.

Age of Car in Yearc (x) 8 3 6 9 2 5 6 3

Value of Car ($1000) (y) l8 84 50 2t 95 42 36 78

Summary: D: 42; D = 424; Lxy: I 735; lf :264; U :28 490

The least squares regression line ofy on x is given by the equation

y=112.26-11-29x-

The Pearson's product-moment correlation coefftcient is r : - 0.96.

(D State ONE reason why the value of the car $t) is the dependent variable

[1 markl

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02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502025
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r (ii)
-26 -

Using the grid below, plot the data on a scafter diagram.

-l
130

t20

ll0
100

90

e80
O
12 70
6t
9
E60
(l)

Fso
a
40

30

20

l0

0
I 2 345 6 7 8 9
Age of cars (years)

[3 marks]

(iii) Calculate the mean value of the age of the car,(i ), and the mean value of the
value of the car, (y ). Clearly show this point on the scatter diagram.

[3 marksl

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02t05020lcAPE 20r6

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02't0502026 J
r (iv)
-27 -

On the same grid as the scatter diagram, draw the regression line
-l
Y=112-26-11.29x.
[2 marksl

(v) With respect to the data, explain the value -11.29 in the regression equation.

[2 marksl

(vi) Use the regression line to estimate the value of a car which is 7 years old.

[2 marksl

(vii) Interpret the value of the product-moment correlation coefficient, r, as it relates

to the data.

[2 marksl

Ibtal25 marks

END OF TEST

IF YOU FINISH BEFORE TIME IS CALLED, CHECK YOUR WORK ON THIS TEST.

02105020/CAPE 2016

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0210502027 J
r EXTRA SPACE
-28 - -l
If you use this extra page, you MUST write the question number clearly in the box provided.

Question No.

02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502028 J
r -29 -

EXTRA SPACE
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Question No.

02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502029 J
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Question No.

02t05020lcAPE 2016

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0210502030
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