matters Arising

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0862-5

Permafrost thaw and northern development

H. B. O’Neill   1 ✉, C. R. Burn   1,2, M. Allard3, L. U. Arenson4, M. I. Bunn1, R. F. Connon5, S. A. Kokelj5,
S. V. Kokelj6, A.-M. LeBlanc1, P. D. Morse1 and S. L. Smith1
arising from B. Teufel and L. Sushama Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0614-6 (2019)

Increases in air temperature have resulted in warming and thaw-
ing of permafrost1 with effects on infrastructure, mass movements,
hydrology and carbon stores, and further changes are anticipated
given climate projections. Teufel and Sushama2 project abrupt soil
drainage and drying in permafrost regions on the basis of an arbi-
trary model assumption that invokes drainage of soil water as soon
as permafrost in the uppermost layer of the ground thaws, regardless
of whether the underlying ground is frozen. The results are a direct
consequence of the process representation in the model land surface
scheme: there is no field or historical evidence indicating that abrupt,
broad-scale transitions of the soil environment above permafrost
due to thawing, as simulated, have occurred. The assertion that dry-
ing of the soil will provoke changes to soil bearing capacity that will
have deleterious consequences for infrastructure is unfounded and
may mislead policymakers concerned with northern development.
Teufel and Sushama’s simulations use the Canadian Land Surface
Scheme (CLASS)2, in which the soil column consists of a hydrau-
lically active permeable soil layer (PSL) overlying a hydraulically
inactive impermeable layer3. The maximum PSL depth is 5 m in
the simulation (Supplementary Fig. 1a in ref. 2). The model assumes
drainage at the base of the PSL once permafrost in this top layer has
thawed, irrespective of whether permafrost occurs below.
Simplified soil drainage may be necessary to implement atmo-
spheric simulations where land surface models present the lower
boundary condition, but the approach is not suitable for soil mois-
ture predictions, as important groundwater processes are not repre-
sented4. Usually, a free drainage boundary condition assumes that
(1) soil conditions are spatially uniform and that (2) no bedrock
(that is, no impermeable layer) is present in the simulation profile4.
Setting aside objections to the first assumption on grounds of scale,
we note that the second assumption has been violated due to the
presence of permafrost. Teufel and Sushama2 have no soil water
drainage within their simulation when the thaw depth is within
the PSL. The authors state that “an abrupt decrease in soil mois-
ture occurs during the year in which permafrost degrades enough
to stop acting as a hydraulic barrier”2. Sufficient permafrost deg-
radation to facilitate drainage is arbitrarily allocated to the PSL.
Permafrost above the base of the PSL acts as a hydraulic barrier,
but once the PSL is thawed drainage promptly initiates regardless of
any permafrost underlying the PSL. The reported abrupt drainage
is thus an artefact of the model. The model does not account for
lateral flow and drainage in soils when the top of permafrost is in
the PSL, or the ability of underlying permafrost to prevent drainage
once permafrost in the PSL thaws. Hence the simulation presents an
abrupt, not gradual, change in hydrologic regime.
No explanation for the drainage assumption is given, although
the condition bears no relation to any field context except perhaps
where permafrost is the same thickness as the PSL (that is, ≤5 m),
and even then, not in wetlands saturated below permafrost. Drainage
may occur in the southern discontinuous permafrost zone, but not
in the places simulated with abrupt drainage (fig. 1 in ref. 2), where
permafrost is considerably thicker. Abrupt drainage has not been
reported from any place where deep thaw has occurred, for exam-
ple following forest fire, nor has it been reported from any region
where Teufel and Sushama simulate that it has already occurred
(2000–2020), including in Hudson Bay Lowlands, the Keewatin
region and northern Quebec, Canada (fig. 1b,c in ref. 2). Projections
for Hudson Bay Lowlands suggest that conditions may rather be
wetter in the future5, and field observations from eastern Hudson
Bay coastlands and the upper Mackenzie valley show that thaw of
ice-rich permafrost has caused ground surface subsidence and the
expansion of fens/bogs and ponds6,7, not abrupt drying. An evalu-
ation of the results would have been possible given the timescale
of the projections. Such validation and discussion in context with
previous work is critical when model results are unexpected. Field
observations highlight that hydrological changes, including wetting
and drying associated with permafrost thaw, vary depending on
local factors such as topography, vegetation, ground ice, and geo-
logical substrate8, but there is no evidence indicating widespread,
sudden drainage over large areas.
Bodies of ground ice in excess of the soil’s pore space (excess
ice), particularly near the top of permafrost, have important impli-
cations for soil moisture conditions, topographic adjustment as
permafrost thaws and the ground thermal response to atmospheric
warming. Thaw of permafrost supersaturated with ground ice
supplies the active layer with moisture, whereas associated thaw
consolidation and surface subsidence may lead to ponding. Thaw
penetration slows due to the latent heat required to melt excess ice9.
Therefore, thaw at the lower boundary of the PSL occurs unduly
soon in the simulations, which contain no excess ice. The effects
of excess ground ice melt on topography, the timing of perma-
frost degradation and changes in hydrologic conditions are neither
simulated nor discussed, although they are of critical relevance
for infrastructure management and for projecting the rate of thaw
penetration into the uppermost permafrost, which is commonly
ice-rich in fine-grained sediments.
Teufel and Sushama2 state that the abrupt modelled decrease
in soil moisture will cause “changes to the bearing capacity of
the soil due to increased drainage”, which will lead to “poten-
tially catastrophic situations for infrastructure”. Permafrost thaw

1
Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 2Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton
University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 3Centre d’études nordiques (CEN), Université Laval, Quebec, Quebec, Canada. 4BGC Engineering Inc., Vancouver,
British Columbia, Canada. 5Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada.
6
Northwest Territories Geological Survey, Yellowknife, Northern Territories, Canada. ✉e-mail: hughbrendan.oneill@canada.ca

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Nature Climate Change
has affected and will continue to challenge the integrity of infra-
structure10, but the consensus is that bearing capacity increases as
moisture content declines below saturation11. The strength of a soil
depends on its effective stresses12 and increases as water drains and
pore pressure decreases. For this reason, drainage management is
an important component of infrastructure design in permafrost
regions10. With the abrupt drainage simulated by the authors,
an increase in bearing capacity would be expected. The authors’
assertion that soil drainage will negatively influence infrastruc-
ture by changing the soil bearing capacity departs from current
geotechnical principles. We further note that thaw consolidation
and creep settlements, and associated deformation of infrastruc-
ture, are more problematic for northern development than bearing
capacity problems.
The authors suggest a decrease in the magnitude of freshet
assuming increased infiltration of snowmelt following the simu-
lated abrupt drainage. This assertion goes against field evidence that
seasonally frozen soils may be relatively impermeable13, a condition
recognized in previous simulations of spring flooding by Teufel
and colleagues14. Furthermore, the primary cause of flooding dur-
ing freshet in north-flowing rivers is ice jamming15. Ice jams will
occur irrespective of changes to near-surface soil moisture, so the
suggestion of decreased flood risk during snowmelt may mislead
policymakers.
In summary, permafrost and the associated hydrological regime
are changing in response to climate warming, although not abruptly
as simulated. Northern communities and stakeholders require
expert knowledge and predictive models to support adaptation
strategies. Such predictions are useful only if the representation of
landscape-scale processes is accurate. Invoking simplifying assump-
tions to operate global-scale simulations can generate predictions
that may be misleading.
Online content
Any methods, additional references, Nature Research report-
ing summaries, source data, extended data, supplementary infor-
mation, acknowledgements, peer review information; details of
author contributions and competing interests; and statements of
data and code availability are available at https://doi.org/10.1038/
s41558-020-0862-5.
Nature Climate Change | VOL 10 | August 2020 | 722–723 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange
matters Arising
Received: 10 February 2020; Accepted: 26 June 2020;
Published online: 29 July 2020
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Data availability
No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
Acknowledgements
We thank S. Wolfe for helpful comments on a draft of the manuscript. This Matters
Arising is NRCan contribution number 20190500.
Author contributions
All authors contributed to the content of this Matters Arising. H.B.O. and C.R.B. drafted
the text. All authors contributed to editing and revising the document.
Nature Climate Change
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to H.B.O.
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Jan Hjort and
the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review
of this work.
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