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Week 1 - Chapter10 Intertemporal Choice
Week 1 - Chapter10 Intertemporal Choice
3101
Microeconomic
Analysis
II
Instructor:
Dr
Sng
Tuan
Hwee
1
My
contact
informa?on
• WEBSITE:
hCp://profile.nus.edu.sg/fass/ecssth/
• EMAIL:
tsng@nus.edu.sg
• PHONE:
6516
3954
• OFFICE:
AS2
04-‐37
• OFFICE
HRS:
Tuesday
4pm
–
6pm
2
Textbook
Intermediate
Microeconomics
–
A
Modern
Approach
(8th
edi?on)
by
Hal
Varian
3
Syllabus
(subject
to
change)
Week
1
Course
Overview;
Intertemporal
Choice,
Ch.10
Week
2
Uncertainty,
Ch.
12
Week
3
Exchange,
Ch.31
Week
4
Monopoly,
Ch.24
Week
5
Monopoly,
Ch.24;
Oligopoly,
Ch.27
Week
6
Oligopoly,
Ch.27
– Recess
Week
–
Week
7
Midterm
Week
8
Game
Theory,
Ch.28
Week
9
Game
Applica?ons,
Ch.
29
Week
10
Game
Applica?ons,
Ch.
29
Week
11
Externali?es,
Ch.
34;
Public
Goods,
Ch.
36
Week
12
Asymmetric
Informa?on,
Ch.
37
Week
13
Review;
AOB
4
Assessment
• Homework, 15%
• Par?cipa?on, 10%
5
Homework
• 20%
of
total
possible
points
will
be
deducted
each
day
for
late
submission
6
Par?cipa?on
7
Exams
• Closed-‐book
midterm
– March
4,
2-‐4pm
(MPSH,
to
be
confirmed)
– Makeup
may
cover
more
materials
8
Some
Ground
Rules
9
INTERTEMPORAL
CHOICE
10
Chinese
Idiom:
Three
at
dawn,
Four
at
dusk
12
Present
and
Future
Values
13
Future
Value
• E.g.,
if
r
=
0.1
then
$100
saved
in
period
1
becomes
$110
in
period
2.
• The
value
next
period
of
$1
saved
now
is
the
future
value
of
that
dollar.
14
Future
Value
15
Present
Value
• Q:
How
much
money
would
have
to
be
saved
now
to
obtain
$1
in
the
next
period?
17
Higher
r
leads
to
lower
PV
• E.g.,
if
r
=
0.1
then
the
most
you
should
pay
now
for
$1
available
next
period
is
1
PV = = $0 ⋅ 91
1+ 0 ⋅1
• And
if
r
=
0.2
then
the
most
you
should
pay
now
for
$1
available
next
period
is
1
PV = = $0 ⋅ 83
1+ 0 ⋅ 2
18
The
Intertemporal
Choice
Problem
• Let
m1
and
m2
be
incomes
(in
$)
received
in
periods
1
and
2.
• Let
p1
and
p2
be
the
prices
of
consump?on
(in
$
per
unit)
in
periods
1
and
2.
19
The
Intertemporal
Choice
Problem
• The
intertemporal
choice
problem:
Given
incomes
m1
and
m2,
and
given
consump?on
prices
p1
and
p2,
what
is
the
most
preferred
intertemporal
consump?on
bundle
(c1,
c2)?
20
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
21
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
22
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
c2
So
(c1,
c2)
=
(m1,
m2)
is
the
consump?on
bundle
if
the
consumer
chooses
neither
to
save
nor
to
borrow.
m2
0
c1
0
m1
23
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
24
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
25
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
c2
m2 +
the
future-‐value
of
the
income
endowment
(1+ r)m1
m2
0
c1
0
m1
26
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
c2
m2 + (c1,
c2)
=
(0,
m2
+
(1
+
r
)m1)
is
the
consump?on
bundle
when
all
period
1
income
is
saved.
(1+ r)m1
m2
0
c1
0
m1
27
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
• Now
suppose
that
the
consumer
spends
everything
possible
on
consump?on
in
period
1,
so
c2
=
0.
• What
is
the
most
that
the
consumer
can
borrow
in
period
1
against
her
period
2
income
of
$m2?
• Let
b1
denote
the
amount
borrowed
in
period
1.
28
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
• Only
$m2
will
be
available
in
period
2
to
pay
back
$b1
borrowed
in
period
1.
• So b1(1 + r ) = m2.
0
c1
0
m1
m2
m1 +
1+ r
30
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
• More
generally,
suppose
that
c1
units
are
consumed
in
period
1.
This
costs
$c1
and
leaves
m1-‐
c1
saved.
Period
2
consump?on
will
then
be
c2 = m2 + (1+ r)(m1 − c1 )
• Rearranging
gives
us,
c2 = −(1+ r)c1 + m2 + (1+ r)m1.
slope
intercept
31
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
c2
c2 = −(1+ r)c1 + m2 + (1+ r)m1
m2 +
(1+ r)m1
slope
=
-‐(1+r)
m2
0
c1
0
m1
m2
m1 +
1+ r
32
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
(1+ r)c1 + c2 = (1+ r)m1 + m2
is
the
“future-‐valued”
form
of
the
budget
constraint
since
all
terms
are
in
period
2
values.
This
is
equivalent
to
c2 m2
c1 + = m1 +
1+ r 1+ r
which
is
the
“present-‐valued”
form
of
the
constraint
since
all
terms
are
in
period
1
values.
33
The
Intertemporal
Budget
Constraint
• Now
let’s
add
prices
p1
and
p2
for
consump?on
in
periods
1
and
2.
34
Intertemporal
Choice
36
Intertemporal
Choice
• Finally,
if
c1
units
are
consumed
in
period
1
then
the
consumer
spends
p1c1
in
period
1,
leaving
m1
-‐
p1c1
saved
for
period
1.
Available
income
in
period
2
will
then
be
m2 + (1+ r)(m1 − p1c1 )
so
37
Intertemporal
Choice
p2 c2 = m2 + (1+ r)(m1 − p1c1 )
Rearranging,
(1+ r) p1c1 + p2 c2 = (1+ r)m1 + m2
This
is
the
“future-‐valued”
form
of
the
budget
constraint
since
all
terms
are
expressed
in
period
2
values.
Equivalent
to
it
is
the
“present-‐valued”
form:
p2 m2
p1c1 + c2 = m1 +
1+ r 1+ r 38
The Intertemporal Budget Constraint
c2
(1+ r) p1c1 + p2 c2 = (1+ r)m1 + m2
(1+ r)m1 + m2
p2
p1
Slope
=
−(1+ r)
p2
m2/p2
c1
0
m1/p1
0
m1 + m2 / (1+ r)
p1
39
Price
Infla?on
• For
example,
π
=
0.2
means
20%
infla?on
π
=
1.0
means
100%
infla?on
40
Price
Infla?on
• We lose nothing by seung p1 = 1 so that p2 = 1+ π.
41
Price
Infla?on
1+ π m2
c1 + c2 = m1 +
1+ r 1+ r
rearranges
to
1+ r 1+ r " m2 %
c2 = − c1 + $ + m1 '
1+ π 1+ π # 1+ r &
43
Real
Interest
Rate
1+ r
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
gives
r−π
ρ=
1+ π
r−π
ρ=
1+ π
0.30 0.24 0.18 0.08 -0.35
45
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
46
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
The
consumer
saves.
m2/p2
0
c1
0
m1/p1
47
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
The
consumer
saves.
An
increase
in
the
infla?on
rate
or
a
decrease
in
the
interest
rate
“flaCens”
the
m2/p2
budget
constraint.
0
c1
0
m1/p1
48
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
If
the
consumer
saves
then
welfare
is
reduced
by
a
lower
interest
rate
or
a
higher
infla?on
rate.
m2/p2
0
c1
0
m1/p1
49
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
The
consumer
borrows.
m2/p2
0
c1
0
m1/p1
50
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
The
consumer
borrows.
A
fall
in
the
interest
rate
or
a
rise
in
the
infla?on
rate
“flaCens”
the
budget
constraint.
m2/p2
0
c1
0
m1/p1
51
Compara?ve
Sta?cs
c2
1+ r
slope
=
−(1+ ρ ) = −
1+ π
If
the
consumer
borrows
then
welfare
is
increased
by
a
lower
interest
rate
or
a
higher
infla?on
rate.
m2/p2
0
c1
0
m1/p1
52
Valuing
Securi?es
• A
financial
security
is
a
financial
instrument
that
promises
to
deliver
an
income
stream.
• What
is
the
most
that
you
should
pay
to
buy
this
security?
53
Valuing
Securi?es
• The
PV
of
$m1
paid
1
year
from
now
is
m1/
(1+r)
• The PV of $m2 paid 2 years from now is m2/ (1+r)2
• The PV of $m3 paid 3 years from now is m3/ (1+r)3
54
Valuing
Bonds
• What
is
the
most
that
should
now
be
paid
for
such
a
bond?
55
Valuing
Bonds
End
of
1
2
3
…
T-‐1
T
Year
Income
$x
$x
$x
$x
$x
$F
Paid
Present
x/(1+r)
x/(1+r)2
x/(1+r)3
…
x/(1+r)T-‐1
F/(1+r)T
Value
x x x F
PV = + 2
+…+ T −1
+
1+ r (1+ r) (1+ r) (1+ r)T
56
Valuing
Bonds
• The
prize
is
$1,000,000
but
it
is
paid
over
10
years
in
equal
installments
of
$100,000
each.
58
Valuing
Consols
End$of$
1$ 2$ 3$ …$ t$ …$
Year$
Income$
$x$ $x$ $x$ $x$ $x$ $x$
Paid$
$ $ …$ $ …$
PV$
$ $
x x x
PV = + 2
+…+ t
+…
1+ r (1+ r) (1+ r)
59
Valuing
Consols
x x x
PV = + 2
+ 3
+…
1+ r (1+ r) (1+ r)
1 ! x x $
= #x + + 2
+…&
1+ r " 1+ r (1+ r) %
1 ! $
= " x + PV %
1+ r
x
Solving
for
PV
gives
PV =
r
60
Valuing
Consols
E.g.
if
r
=
0.1
now
and
forever
then
the
most
that
should
be
paid
now
for
a
console
that
provides
$1000
per
year
is
x $1000
PV = = = $10,000
r 0 ⋅1
61