IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution

Research Article

Probabilistic production simulation of a wind/ ISSN 1751-8687

Received on 3rd November 2017
Revised 3rd February 2018
photovoltaic/energy storage hybrid power Accepted on 11th March 2018
E-First on 25th April 2018
system based on sequence operation theory doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2017.1743
www.ietdl.org

Xue Bai1, Hongbin Wu1 , Shihai Yang2, Zhixin Li2

1School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, People's Republic of China
2State
Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co. Ltd, Nanjing 210024, People's Republic of China
E-mail: hfwuhongbin@163.com

Abstract: Probabilistic production simulation is an important tool used in conventional power systems to calculate generated
energy and evaluate reliability. With the continuous expansion of the renewable energy plants, new characteristics such as
intermittency and volatility of power are widely discussed, and it is necessary to study the application of probabilistic production
simulation for renewable energy power generation. This study proposes a probabilistic production simulation method based on
sequence operation theory (SOT) to simulate the operation of a wind/photovoltaic/energy storage power system. Both the
uncertainty of renewable resources and the outage of wind turbines are considered in this study. Considering the
complementary property of the renewable energy, pattern clustering is used to analyse the meteorological conditions and to
assist in the probabilistic production simulation. Moreover, the output model of the energy storage device is developed using the
Monte Carlo method and controlled using a smoothing strategy of the energy storage device. Ultimately, the simulation example
shows the feasibility and the higher efficiency of the algorithm compared with Monte Carlo method and a production simulation
method based on equivalent energy function.

1 Introduction
There are complementary properties between wind speed and solar
irradiance in space and time, so wind/photovoltaic (PV) hybrid
power system is superior to wind turbine generation (WTG) or PV
producing electricity alone. Based on this premise, using energy
storage (ES) devices in conjunction with WTG/PV can further
improve the adverse effects caused by the uncertainty of wind
energy and solar energy and can make the output power of the
wind/PV power systems more smooth and controllable.
As the wind/PV/ES systems incorporate into power system, the
planning and operation of hybrid system need to be considered.
Probabilistic production simulation algorithm can simulate
generation dispatch schedule, predict generation units’ generating
capacity and cost, and evaluate the reliability of the generation
system. It can be used for power plant planning, or making annual
and monthly operation plans of generation system. In the field of
traditional power generation, the researches and applications of
probabilistic production simulation have been developed [1–4], and
it is also a useful tool for renewable energy's evaluation and
dispatch. Effective load duration curve is been used to the
renewable energy system and renewable generators are treated as
multi-state units [5, 6]. In order to reflect the time-varying
characteristics of renewable energy, an algorithm of probabilistic
production for wind farm based on the effective capacity
distribution method chronological load curve is proposed [6, 7]. In
[8], an approach combining an equivalent energy function (EEF)
method and a frequency continuous method is proposed to simulate
the probabilistic production of wind farm. The authors in [9, 10]
decompose the entire study period into non-overlapping simulation
periods to assess the variable effect impacts of power systems.
Degeilh and Gross [11] deploy Monte Carlo simulation techniques
to systematically sample random processes of renewable resources
and emulate the side-by-side power system and transmission-
constrained day-ahead market operations. The method based on
universal generating function is also an effective way to reflect the
time-varying characteristics of renewable units [12]. Above
literatures takes into account uncertainties and time-varying
characteristics of the renewable-energy generators more or less, but
discusses about the complementary characteristics of WTG and PV
are not enough. Aien et al. [13] utilise multi-states model that
evaluate the probabilistic reliability indices of hybrid wind–PV
power systems, and Zhu et al. [14] separate prediction of WTG and
PV's contributions from the initial load curve to get the net load
curve considering the impact of renewable energy units. The
former literatures model wind and PV as a whole to take part in
production simulation or change efficient load curve, which is
inconvenient to analyse their scheduling orders.
For the combination of ES and renewable energy, Abbassi and
Chebbi [15] present an optimised procedure for controlling a
wind/PV hybrid system equipped with batteries storage. Lu et al.
[16] discuss the benefits of combining the wind power generation
system with ES and estimate the reasonable amount of ES
capacities. Hartmann and Dan [17] propose a simulation tool to
simulate the cooperation of wind generators and ES. Delavaripour
and Dehkordi's [18] approach combines a probabilistic production
simulation technique and time series technique. Above literatures
analyse or perform the simulation process from the perspective of
the cooperation of renewable energy and ES system.
In this paper, we emphatically analyse the influence of factors
such as weather conditions and the complementary characteristics
of generation units using clustering algorithm, and achieve
calculation of the supply–demand balance through the sequence
operation theory (SOT), which is in favour of the further studies of
production situation in power markets, because probabilistic
production simulation based on SOT is at an advantage in respect
of integrated resource planning or under deregulation environment
than conventional production simulation approaches [19]. During
the modelling, the meteorological data are divided into several time
intervals of day and night to describe the complementary
characteristics and fluctuation phenomena of wind energy and solar
energy, and in all intervals, a clustering algorithm is used to
partition the different weather patterns under different weather
conditions, which makes it convenient to not only analyse the
complementary characteristics of WTG and PV, but model them,
respectively, to take part in production simulation, and the
scheduling orders of those renewable energy generators can be
analysed. In addition, the output model of the ES device is built
using a first-order Butterworth low-pass filter to smoothing the
output of wind farm and PV plants under wind speed and solar

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radiation intensity fluctuations, and then the ES's two states of PPV = ηpvSCAI β (6)
charge and discharge are equivalent to the load and the generator.
where SCA is cell area, Iβ is the solar irradiance (w/m2), and ηpv is
2 Wind/PV/energy storage hybrid power system the conversion efficiency of PV system. ηpv can be calculated as
modelling follows:
2.1 Wind farm modelling
ηc(I β /Ik), 0 ≤ I β ≤ Ik
The Weibull distribution is often used to describe the probability ηpv = (7)
ηc, Ik ≤ I β
distribution of wind speed characteristics [20]. Thus, the wind
speed probability distribution is established using Weibull
where ηc is the conversion efficiency of the panel under standard
distribution as given by the following probability density function
(PDF): test conditions, Ik is the value of solar irradiance for a particular
occasion, and if Iβ is larger than Ik, the conversion efficiency will
k v k−1
v k remain constant.
f (v) = exp − (1) The uncertainty of the PV power's operation model results
c c c
mainly from uncertainties associated with the supply of the solar
where k is the shape parameter, c is the scale parameter, and v is the radiation rather than the forced outage uncertainty of the generator
wind speed in m/s. unlike the case with the traditional generators [24]. Thus, the
The output of wind turbine can be described using the following uncertainty that cased by forced outage is neglected in this paper.
[21] function:
2.3 Energy storage modelling
0, v ≤ vci or v > vco The ES system can store energy when the system output is greater
v − vci than the load demand and release the energy in the opposite case,
Pw(v) = Pr , vci < v ≤ vr (2) which plays a significant role in improving the reliability of the
vr − vci
wind/PV/ES hybrid power system.
Pr, vr < v ≤ vco The ES is used to smooth the output fluctuations of wind
turbine and solar energy power. Its role is to make the output of the
where Pw(v) is the active power of the wind turbine under the wind wind/PV/ES system remain steady, to improve the quality of the
speed v, vci is the cut-in wind speed of wind turbine, vco is the cut- electric energy, and to reduce the impacts of the introduction of
out wind speed of wind turbine, vr is the rated wind speed of wind renewable energy grids connected to the power grid. Accordingly,
turbine, and Pr is the rated active power of wind turbine. an ES control method based on the low-pass filtering principle can
Forced outage of wind turbine generators also has a significant be used to control the charge and discharge process of the ES
impact on the assessment of the power system. Two-state Markov device. Using a first-order Butterworth low-pass filter [25], after
model is usually used to represent forced outage of the wind the process of difference, we can obtain the following equations:
turbine [22]. Wind turbines forced outage rate r can be expressed
as follows: Td
Pwp_ref (t) = (P (t) − Pwp_ref (t − 1)) + Pwp_ref (t − 1) (8)
T wp
tMTTR
r= (3) Pbat_ref (t + 1) = Pwp_ref (t) − Pwp(t) (9)
tMTTF + tMTTR

where tMTTF is mean time to failure and tMTTR is mean time to
repair.
For m sets of the same type of wind turbines, the outage of any
turbine obeys the binomial distribution. Assume that wind speed is
not related with the number of wind turbines in forced outage, the
output probability of m sets of the same type of wind turbines can
be approximatively obtained using sampling both the number of
wind turbines in forced outage and wind speed.
Define G1(x) as the PDF of one wind turbine output only
considering the uncertainty of wind speed, and G2(y) as the PDF of
the number of wind turbines in forced outage. The output
probability of m sets of the same type of wind turbines Fwind(X)
can also be obtained using following formula:
Fwind(X) = ∑ G1(x)G2(y)
X = xy
2.2 Solar energy power modelling
Solar irradiance for a certain period of time is approximately
described as a beta distribution. The beta distribution is given by
the following PDF:
I Γ(α + β) I α−1
I β−1
f = 1−
Imax Γ(α)Γ(β) Imax Imax
where α, β are all shape parameters, Γ is the gamma function, I is
solar irradiance, and Imax is the maximum value of solar irradiance.
The power output of the PV array is directly related to solar
irradiance and the parameters of PV. This can be expressed in the
form of the following equation [23]:
IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2018, Vol. 12 Iss. 11, pp. 2700-2706
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where Pwp_ref is the reference output of the wind/PV/ES system,
Pwp is the reference output of the wind/PV system, Pbat_ref is the
output of ES, t + 1 and t − 1 are the previous sampling time and the
next sampling time, respectively, T is the filtering time constant,
and Td is the computing period. At the same time, ES device
charge–discharge rate constraint, charge and discharge capacity
constraints, and charge and discharge power constraints are also
considered during the process of sampling.
The output of the ES can be controlled according to the storage
charge and discharge strategy, and the power variation of the ES
device can be simulated by Monte Carlo sampling. Then, using the
methods of probability and statistics, an approximate probability
distribution of the output power of the ES device can be obtained,
which is denoted as Fbat(X). X is the output power of the ES device.
According to the output characteristics of the ES device, the values
(4) of X that are more than zero represent the state of discharge, and
values of X that are less than zero represents the state of charge.
Therefore, the ES capacity of the two states is equivalent to the
generator and the load. The corresponding generator/load power
probability distribution is obtained as follows:
Fbat, X>0
Fbat_gene(X) =
∑ Fbat, X=0 (10)
(5) X≤0
Fbat, X<0
Fbat_load(X) =
∑ Fbat, X=0 (11)
X≥0
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where Fbat_gene is the probability distribution of an equivalent
generator of ES, and Fbat_load is the probability distribution of an
equivalent load of ES.
It can be shown that if the output of the equivalent generator
state is 0, the following two situations may occur: (i) the ES device
does not work and (ii) the ES device is charging. The situation of
the equivalent load of ES is similar to the former.
3 Weather pattern analysis
The output of the wind/PV system is closely related to the local
meteorological environment. It is obvious that if the factors of
wind speed and solar irradiance are analysed in isolation, the
complementary properties between wind and solar cannot be
obtained. So the historical wind speed and solar irradiance data
should be analysed synthetically and synchronously. Consequently,
we use a K-means clustering algorithm to classify weather patterns
and cluster samples with a similar meteorological condition into
one weather pattern. The specific steps are as follows:
Step 1: Divide the original data of the wind energy and the solar
irradiance into several time intervals of day and night. Define each
interval as a sample and classify them as D (daytime) or N (night
intervals). For sample D, calculate its three characteristics of
average wind speed, wind speed variance, and average solar
irradiance, and write the expression for D (α1, α2, α3). Solar
irradiance variance is not calculated because we found its values do
not vary much as dealing with the original data; for sample N,
calculate its two characteristics of average wind speed and the
wind speed variance, and write the expression for N (α1, α2).
Step 2: For daytime sample collection {D1, D2…} and night
intervals sample collection {N1, N2…}, select the appropriate
initial clustering centre and clustering numbers KD and KN, and use
the K-means clustering algorithm for clustering analysis. To
guarantee three characteristics of α1, α2, α3 in sample D or two
characteristics of α1, α2 in sample N have the same weight, the
normalisation processing should be taken before the start of the
clustering.
Step 3: Samples with similar characteristics will be divided into
categories corresponding to types of weather patterns.
The main idea of this method is to describe all of the
combinations of meteorological condition in a way that the
descriptions reflect the complementary properties as much as
possible. The greater the details of division, the more accurate the
description of the wind/PV system will be.
4 Probabilistic simulation production based on
SOT
4.1 Overview of SOT and definitions
For the convenience of narrative, the following definitions are
provided [16]:
Probabilistic sequence (PS): a series of values that represent
probability; the sum of all values is 1.0.
Supply: the unit to supply energy, such as a generator; an
equivalent generator of ES.
Demand: the unit to consume energy such as load; equivalent load
of ES.
Supply–demand matching: the process of supply meeting demand.
Sequence of consumption: the probability distribution of the power
consumption of supply or demand.
Sequence of available power: the probability distribution of the
available power of supply or demand.
SOT is a mathematical theory that was extracted in the process
of solving the problem of power system uncertainty. The properties
of PSs and the operations of sequences have also been defined in
the literature [16]. The probabilistic production simulation based
on SOT is the process of converting generators and loads to
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sequences and the operations of PSs. Units loading process is
calculated by means of sequence operations: addition-type-
convolution, subtraction-type-convolution, and-type-product.
Those operations are defined in [16].
4.2 Serialisation of wind/PV/ES hybrid power system
The model of the wind/PV/ES system is given in Section 2, and
according to this model, the serialisation of various demands and
supplies are realised. First, we set the discretisation step ΔC, which
can be defined as the common divisor of the ES device's power and
the load's power. Then, using wind turbine as an example, we
explain the serialisation process. Based on the output model of the
wind turbine, the PDF Fwind(X) can be obtained. According to the
step length ΔC, we convert Fwind(X) into discrete series SS1, where
the ith element of the sequence is as follows:
∫
iΔC
SS1(i) = Fwind(X) dX (12)
(i − 1)ΔC
where SS1(i) is the probability that the output power of the wind
turbine is in the interval of [(i − 1)ΔC, i ΔC].
Other supplies and demands can also be converted using the
same method as wind turbines. It can be shown that the sum of all
values of one sequence is 1.0, and each element of the sequence is
fixed. For an unit owned the installed capacity of C, its sequence
length is C/ΔC.
It is worth noting that ES's two states of equivalent generator
and equivalent load are, respectively, supply and demand. Their
serialisation processes are, respectively, based on Fbat_gene(X) and
Fbat_load(X). The sequence of equivalent generator of ES plays a
role of supply in the supply–demand balance calculation. The
sequence of equivalent load of ES plays a role of demand in the
supply–demand balance calculation, and on this occasion, supply is
PV or WTG's sequence of available power, so the sequence of
equivalent load of ES can absorb excess energy of PV or WTG. In
general, ES will improve generating system's reliability and
renewable energy's utilisation efficiency. Define wind turbine, PV
unit, and equivalent generator of ES as supply1, supply2 and
supply3. In addition, we define load and the equivalent load of ES
as demand1 and demand2.
In addition, considering the outage probability of the
conventional unit, conventional units output model are usually
described as a two-state model. When output of the conventional
unit is 0, the value of the corresponding location in the sequence is
the outage probability, and in the rated output, it is the non-outage
probability. The other elements of the sequence are all 0.
4.3 Calculation of the reliability indexes and generation of the
power system
When all of the supply–demand matching processes have been
completed, we calculate the generated energy and evaluate the
reliability. Supply's generated energy is the production between the
expectation of the sequence of consumption and duration. If we set
ΔC as 1, the energy expectation not supplied (EENS) is the
production between the expectation of the demand's sequence of
consumption and duration. The loss of load probability (LOLP) is
the first value of the demand's sequence of available power.
After the classification of the weather pattern, probabilistic
production simulation is separately generated under each weather
pattern. In this case, the result of reliability indexes and the
probability distribution of supply and demand will vary with each
weather pattern. For example, PRm(i) representing the probability
distribution of consumed power of supply m can be obtained under
a weather pattern numbered as i.
Suppose that there are N (N = KD + KN) types of weather
patterns, the probability distribution of supply m containing all
types of patterns can be calculated as follows:
IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2018, Vol. 12 Iss. 11, pp. 2700-2706
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 N 4.4 Probabilistic production simulation of a wind/PV/ES
PRm = ∑ PMiPR i ()
m = PM 1PRm(1) + PM 2PRm(2) + ⋯ + PMN PRm(N ) (13) power system
i=1
Fig. 1 shows the process of probabilistic production simulation of a
which represents a discrete distribution, and PMi is the proportion wind/PV/ES power system. It can be listed as follows:
of weather pattern i. PMi is subjected with the following formula:
Step 1: We use the K-means cluster algorithm to analyse original
N meteorological data and to classify different weather patterns
∑ PMi = 1 (14) according to the local meteorological conditions;
i=1 Step 2: The modelling of a wind/PV/ES system and their
serialisation are performed;
After calculating the PRm, the generated energy of supply m can be Step 3: After confirming the scheduling order of the units, supply–
obtained. Reliability indexes such as the EENS and the LOLP have demand matching processes are operated in order. Regardless of
the similar calculation processes. tradition units, the scheduling order of wind/PV/ES hybrid power
system is listed as: supply1–demand1 matching; supply2–demand1
matching; supply3–demand1 matching; supply1–demand2
matching; supply2–demand2 matching.
Step 4: Use the algorithm of probabilistic production simulation to
calculate the reliable indexes and generated energy under every
weather pattern.
Step 5: According to the method above, we calculate the reliability
indexes and the power generation of the system containing all
types of weather patterns.

5 Case study
5.1 Introduction of the example
In this paper, the IEEE RTS-79 system with wind/PV/ES is used as
the test system. The conventional unit's installed capacity is 3405 
MW, and its annual peak load is 2850 MW. The installed capacity
of the wind power and the solar energy power is 600 MW in total,
including 400 MW of wind power and 200 MW of solar energy.
The rated capacity of the wind turbine is 2 MW, and the cut-in,
rated and cut-out wind speeds of the wind turbine are 2.5, 12, and
18 m/s, respectively. The probabilistic production simulation is
conducted by MATLAB R2010a.

5.2 Classification of the weather pattern

Fig. 1  Flow chart of probabilistic production simulation of a wind/PV/ES
hybrid power system
We use the K-means algorithm to cluster similar meteorological
data as one weather pattern meteorological data for a location in
northwest China. Considering the local meteorological
characteristics, the original data are clustered into ten types of
weather patterns, which contain six patterns during the day and
four patterns during the night. Daytime meteorological data have
three characteristics of the average wind speed, the variances of the
wind speed, and the average of solar irradiance. The clustering
analysis results of the daytime meteorological data are shown in
Fig. 2a. Nighttime meteorological data have two characteristics of
the average wind speed and the variances of the wind speed, and
the results of its clustering analysis are shown in Fig. 2b.
In the process of clustering, the characteristics have been
standardised. As we can see, the data under one weather pattern
have similar characteristics. The value of the characteristics and
their proportions under various patterns are shown in Table 1.

5.3 Analysis of the probabilistic production simulation under

different weather patterns
Based on SOT, the probabilistic production simulation of a power
system containing wind/PV/ES under every weather pattern is
Fig. 2  Results of weather pattern clustering
realised. The outputs of WTG and PV under ten types of weather
(a) Daytime weather pattern clustering, (b) Night weather pattern clustering
patterns are shown in Fig. 3.

Table 1 Characteristic index comparison under different weather patterns

Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
average wind speed, km/h 45.1 24.2 43.2 51.4 50.6 14.0 49.7 50.8 32.0 15.9
variances of the wind speed, km/h 26.3 17.5 18.1 5.0 5.9 9.1 25.8 8.2 21.5 10.7
average of solar irradiance, W/m2 469.1 409.1 434.1 558.7 325.5 301.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
proportion, % 7.25 8.62 9.17 11.90 6.84 6.16 11.76 19.97 10.40 7.93

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Fig. 3  WTG and PV's output under different weather patterns
(a) Wind turbine outputs under different weather patterns, (b) PV outputs under
different weather patterns
Fig. 4  Comparison between wind turbine output and its characteristic
indexes under different weather patterns
Fig. 5  Reliability indexes under different weather patterns
(a) Reliability index EENS under different weather patterns, (b) Reliability index
LOLP under different weather patterns
Fig. 3 shows that the output of WTG and PV varies with
weather patterns. For PV, upon comparing the characteristics of
every pattern, we observe a positive correlation between the solar
irradiance and the PV output. For WTG, its two characteristics are
the means and variances of the wind speed. Drawing Fig. 4 to
further analyse the data, it can be observed that the wind turbine
output is proportional to the average wind speed, but it is inversely
proportional to the variances of wind speed. So we can draw the
conclusion that the more fluctuation the wind speed has, the worse
the effects on output will be.
5.3.2 Analysis of reliability: For every type of weather patterns
used in the probabilistic production simulation, the reliability
indexes obtained by the approach of probabilistic production
simulation are shown in Fig. 5.
Comparing the results of Figs. 3 and 5, we can see that the
reliability of the power system is related to weather patterns. If
weather patterns are optimistic, which means high wind speeds,
smaller the wind speed fluctuation, and higher solar irradiance
(such as pattern 4), implies better system reliability. Additionally, it
has been found that the influence of the WTG on system reliability
is stronger than PV. This is due to the capacity ratio of 2:1 of WTG
and PV.
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Table 2 Probabilistic production simulation results on the
total time
WTG's average output of a year, MW 240.82
PV's average output of a year, MW 50.35
EENS/T, MW 0.019523
LOLP 0.00019052
Fig. 6  Reliability indexes under different PV installed capacity on the
premise of the same total installed capacity of PV and WTG
(a) EENS under different PV installed capacity, (b) LOLP under different PV installed
capacity
5.3.3 Probabilistic production simulation of a power system
containing all types of weather patterns: The results of a
probabilistic production simulation of a power system containing
all types of weather patterns are obtained by means of capture 4.
The reliability indexes and the generation of different generators
obtained from the simulations are shown in Table 2. It is shown
that the outputs of wind turbine and solar energy power are ideal.
This is because the load demand of the system is very large, so the
utilisation rates of renewable energy are very high.
5.3.4 Analysis of reliability under different PV capacity: In
order to study the change of system reliability under different ratios
of PV and WTG's capacity, we change the installed capacity of PV
from 100 to 500 MW, and keep the total installed capacity of PV
and WTG of 600 MW unchanged. Utilising the proposed method,
Fig. 6 can be obtained.
It can be seen from the figure that reliability indexes EENS and
LOLP gradually increase with the increase of the installed capacity
of PV. It means on the premise of the same total installed capacity,
the higher proportion of PV will lead to the system reliability
decreased. This could be because the PV has no power at night, so
the actual output of the PV is less than that of the WTG.
5.4 Analysis of probabilistic production simulation with a
differing scheduling order of generators
In the process of generator scheduling, different orders will result
in the different economic benefits. This paper changes the order of
scheduling to study the influence of the order on the generation of
renewable energy, respectively. This is shown in Fig. 7.
Fig. 7 describes the average annual output of WTG, PV, and ES,
respectively, which vary with the order of arranging generators.
Abscissa of ‘the position of renewable energy units’ in Fig. 7
means the scheduling order of generators using renewable energy.
For example, if the position of renewable energy units is 500 MW,
it means 500 MW of traditional units are first scheduled and then
renewable energy units are taken into operation. Analysing the
graph, we can see that if the order of renewable energy units is
performed at a later order, its energy generation will decrease. The
higher renewable energy utilisation means the higher utilisation of
ES. The capacity of ES is related not only with the capacity of PV
and WTG, but also with the scheduling order of wind/PV/ES
hybrid power system.
Therefore, to maximise the utilisation efficiency of the
renewable energy, wind turbine generators and PV systems should
be put into operation earlier than conventional units.
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© The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2018
Fig. 7  Impact of the input positions of the renewable energy unit on the output of the renewable energy and ES
(a) Impact of the scheduling order on WTG's output, (b) Impact of the scheduling order on PV's output, (c) Impact of the scheduling order on ES's output

Table 3 Impact of ES system on system reliability advantages in calculating the output of renewable energy
With ES system No ES system generators and analysing their scheduling orders.
EENS/T, MW 0.019523 0.020853
LOLP 0.00019053 0.00020301 6 Conclusion
Considering the function of the ES device of smoothing the output
of fluctuation, the complementary characteristics of wind and solar,
Table 4 Comparison of different methods results and the forced outage of wind turbines, this paper utilises the
The result of Algorithm approach of probabilistic simulation production based on SOT to
simulation Probabilistic Monte Probabilistic simulate the operation of a power system containing wind/PV/ES.
production Carlo production For ES, the paper establishes the charging and discharging strategy
simulation simulation based to smooth output fluctuations, builds its probability distribution
based on on EEF model of output by Monte Carlo sampling, and then uses an
SOT equivalent generator of ES and an equivalent load of ES. For the
EENS/T, MW 0.0195348 0.0192631 0.0214142 complementary properties of wind and solar, this paper utilises
LOLP 0.00019053 0.00019276 0.00018596
weather patterns clustering to synthetically analyse the effect of
solar and wind meteorological data.
calculation time 2.6940 s 28.705969 s 2.7968 s
In order to compare the proposed method with relevant
WTG's average 240.82 239.95 hybrid power 279.11 literatures, we add Monte Carlo method and a probabilistic
output of a year, system's production simulation method based on EEF to have a contrast. It
MW average can be seen that the probabilistic production simulation based on
PV's average 50.35 49.40 output of a EEF and the proposed method all have advantages in terms of
output of a year, year, MW calculation time, but from the analysis of WTG and PV's
MW scheduling orders and generated energy, the proposed method is
more suitable for the wind/PV/ES hybrid power system.
The simulation results show that the reliability of a power
5.5 Impact of ES system on system reliability system is related to weather patterns and that if weather patterns
are optimistic (which means the availability of high wind speeds,
The reliability indexes under the wind/PV/ES power system and small wind speed fluctuations, and high solar irradiance), the
the reliability indexes under the power system under wind–PV power generation of renewable energy and system reliability will
power system are listed in Table 3. It can be seen that the adoption be higher. Moreover, WTG and PV should be put into operation
of ES can effectively improve the reliability of the system. earlier than traditional units to maximise the utilisation efficiency
of renewable energy, and the capacity of ES is also related with the
5.6 Comparison with Monte Carlo method scheduling order of wind/PV/ES hybrid power system. Besides, on
To verify the correctness and advantages of the proposed method, the premise of the same total installed capacity of renewable
the other two methods are also used to calculate production energy, the increase of PV proportion will lead to the system
simulation results to compare with the proposed method. The first reliability decreased, so the contribution of PV is less than WTG
method is sequential Monte Carlo method and it can obtain on system reliability. In the end, the adoption of ES can effectively
reliability indexes EENS and LOLP, and the outputs of PV and improve the reliability of the system is proved by the proposed
WTG of a year for the case in Section 5. The second method is approach.
based on EEF proposed in [2], and the modelling approach of
wind/PV/ES hybrid power system is similar to [13], which is to set 7 Acknowledgment
up the multi-state model for hybrid power system and treat it as a This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of
multi-state unit for simulation. The parameters in the calculation China under grant 2016YFB0901100.
process are the same with Section 5.1, and the results are shown in
Table 4.
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