2019-09-18 Key Seats Strategy - An Update and Appraisal of Our Strategy PDF

Data & Targeting
The Labour Party

020 7783 1362 Head Office
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memo
Labour Central, Kings Manor,
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From: Tim Waters, Director of Data & Date: 18 September 2019

Targeting, & Lena Mangold,
Targeting & Analysis Manager
To: Niall Sookoo, Executive Director, cc: (not copied)

Elections & Stakeholders
Subject
Key seats strategy: an update and appraisal of our strategy in

the light of internal MRP analysis of recent polling data
Purpose
This note is designed to update you on two things and set out the principal challenges
for decision-makers which arise from them.
The two things are:
 feedback from Regional Directors on the key seats list which we discussed with
them last week, including both seat-level suggestions and strategic concerns.
 the results, which make for extremely sobering reading, of our multilevel
regression & poststratification (MRP) model of seat level outcomes using a very
large sample polling dataset from YouGov (fieldwork at the end of August).
These, especially the latter, present a number of challenges to us in terms of the
overall strategic posture of the Party going into the election, in particular,
 whether the purpose of a key seat strategy is to use resources to maximize the
number of Labour MPs who have seats at the end of the process, or instead to
resource the seats which separate Labour from Downing Street.
 how defensive our posture should be; and
 how we react to the emergence of the Liberal Democrats as a credible threat to
Labour both in seats where they are currently a third party and in Labour-held
seats where in 2017 they came second.
Comprehensive appendices provide further information on the consequences of the
MRP model in terms of seats, individual Labour MPs who would lose their seats, and
the contrast with more simplistic models of electoral change (those based on uniform
national swing).
memo: confidential The Labour Party
Contents
Purpose ................................................................................................................................... 1
Contents ................................................................................................................................. 2
Context: the initial list ............................................................................................................ 2
Feedback from regional directors/general secretaries ...................................................... 4
Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4
Seat specific issues, by region/nation .............................................................................. 4
Regional/national strategic concerns ............................................................................... 8
General strategic concerns ............................................................................................... 8
Polling and its analysis: multilevel regression and post stratification (MRP) ................... 8
Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 8
Source of data & data quality checks ............................................................................... 9
Headline voting intention from the poll (before MRP analysis) .................................. 12
Why are we doing MRP in house? .................................................................................. 13
Our MRP approach and what data it uses about areas and individuals .................... 14
How can MRP inform our strategy? ............................................................................... 15
MRP analysis: top lines and details of further analysis ................................................ 16
Challenges to consider ........................................................................................................ 19
Nature of posture ............................................................................................................ 19
Choice of seats ................................................................................................................. 19
Liberal Democrat Threat ................................................................................................. 19
Leave, Remain, and relative stickiness ........................................................................... 19
Segmentation of target voters ........................................................................................ 20
2020 local government elections.................................................................................... 20
Appendices (1-12) ................................................................................................................ 21
Table of appendices to this document (with page references) ................................... 21
Context: the initial list

An initial key seats list for an autumn general election was circulated to regional
directors at the start of September as part of the preparations for a snap general
election.
That list was based on discussions at head office between those who favour looking at
previous marginality and making assumptions of uniform national swing (hereafter,
UNS-based) approach as the primary basis for determining key seats, and those who
prefer a model-based approach.
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In consequence, the list, reflecting as it did commonalities between the two

approaches, was largely a list of the most marginal seats standing between Labour’s
current position and (on a uniform national swing) Labour having effective control of
the House of Commons even if not a working majority on our own terms.
It is also worth remembering that the electoral context of last autumn, with the
political system still largely polarized at that time between the Labour Party and the
Conservative Party, before the emergence of the Brexit Party and the Liberal
Democrats, informed the creation of the list.
There was at that point no obvious serious risk from minor parties (even if it was
already very clear that there were circumstances in which that threat might emerge
and that the development of such a threat would pose major problems for us) to what
might well have been a fairly simple two party fight such as we had ended the 2017
campaign with.
The list had been modulated however by the inclusion of a categorization of seats
using the modelling work from autumn 2018, which is for the same reasons subject to
the same caveats about the earlier political situation.
That categorization clustered seats by the absolute and relative size of three identified
principal challenges:
 gaining voters directly from the Conservatives;
 regaining voters who had previously voted Labour but did not do so in 2017;
 retaining voters who voted Labour in 2017 but had either not previously been
voters or had previously supported another party.
Additionally although the list was largely offensive (see summary statistics in Table 1
below), it did contain a strong defensive element: around a third of the total set of
seats to be resourced were defensive.
The list also involved – again as Table 1 shows – a large investment in Scotland. There
is no evidence that organizational investment in Scottish seats will deliver improved
electoral outcomes and there is abundant evidence from the analysis of recent
general elections that spending money in contests where we are not competitive
(almost all contests in Scotland) is a much less efficient way of achieving changed
electoral outcomes than investing in tighter electoral contests elsewhere in Britain.
In a high turnout election such as a general election, and in a marginal race,

organizational effort only ever achieves an improvement of a few extra percentage
points at the margin. In a seat which is non-marginal the effect of additional
organizational spend may (as recent research has shown), be completely nugatory.
To achieve any given small percentage increase in voteshare for Labour in a seat in
Scotland where we are not regarded by the electorate as a serious rival to the
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incumbent requires a substantially larger investment of human and financial

resources than in a seat in England or Wales where we are so regarded.
Table 1. Summary by region and nation of distribution of key seats,
Region/Nation Offensive Defensive Total

East Midlands 8 1 9
Eastern 4 3 7
London 6 3 9
North 3 2 5
North West 5 2 7
Scotland 10 7 17
South East 7 1 8
South West 6 1 7
Wales 6 0 6
West Midlands 7 4 11
Yorkshire and
Humber 5 3 8
GB TOTAL 67 27 94
Feedback from regional directors/general secretaries

Introduction
Richard Bennett as Head of Election Support, along with the relevant Election Support
Manager and a member of the Data & Targeting team, spoke to every regional
director/general secretary individually about the list for their patch (in Scotland we
spoke to the Deputy General Secretary).
It was made clear to regional directors in opening remarks for each call that the
purpose of this list was the political objective of securing the next Labour government
rather than simply resourcing seats that currently looked tight, and therefore that
suggested changes to the list needed to be in line with that overall strategic objective,
although obviously wider concerns would be fed back as well.
It was also made clear that the purpose of this process was to seek feedback for
necessary amendments, and to raise concerns about how the list could best be
resourced, but that regions & nations were not being asked to “sign off” on the list. It
is for the political leadership to sign off the list.
Seat specific issues, by region/nation

In the Eastern region, the suggested list was broadly accepted by the Regional
Director and Deputy Regional Director. The Deputy Regional Director was concerned
about the threat posed by the Liberal Democrats in view of their strong polling,
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evident momentum, and the politics (especially around Brexit) of ostensibly safe
Cambridge, and asked that we keep an eye on that seat, and be prepared to review
whether it should be included.
In the East Midlands, the Regional Director recognized the strategic thrust but also
flagged the political concerns which arose from withdrawing resourcing from some
early selection seats. She was especially concerned about Rushcliffe in this regard.
She felt that Sherwood would be a real challenge as demographically the seat was
sliding away from us in much the same way as High Peak seemed to be heading
towards us. She was also concerned that both Bassetlaw (the call took place before
John Mann’s defection) and Bolsover were seats which could be at risk from changed
political circumstances, and although Bassetlaw was fairly well organized, Bolsover
was markedly less able to run a modern campaign.
In London, the Regional Director and Deputy Regional Director were broadly happy
with the list which they felt represented a stretching but achievable step forward
given Labour’s strong position in the capital. However, they raised strategic concerns,
as detailed below. They also felt that the exclusion of the Uxbridge & South Ruislip
seat from the list was probably right from a point of view of not spreading resources
too thinly but flagged the possibility of political kickback from the local party once this
became clear.
In the North, the Regional Director understood the purpose and character of the list
and felt that the seats identified were largely correct given the strategic objective but
felt that Darlington and Workington, and possibly also Sedgefield, should be
resourced, if possibly centrally though if necessary she would work to make additional
regional resources available. These were seats with less ability than some others to
organize an effective campaign and where expected strong campaigns from the
Tories would need to be blunted. Were the campaign to take on a more defensive
character, she felt that both Hartlepool and Blyth Valley would be likely to need
support.
In the North West, the Regional Director was basically content with the list given the
strategic objective and emphasized the scale of the challenge many of these seats
represented. She had already made staffing dispositions which largely reflected this
set of priorities and would review those as the situation developed. She suggested
that it might be worth considering Altrincham & Sale West as an offensive target given
the nature of the Tory vote there, which while prosperous was also strongly pro-
Remain. She was slightly concerned about the absence of a defensive component to
efforts in the region and flagged both Warrington South and Weaver Vale as areas
which could come under threat very quickly if the nature of the campaign changed or
the Tory lead increased.
Additionally, the two Bury seats, for different reasons, needed to be kept under
review. Bury South in particular was complex as although we had lost support there
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in the Jewish community, this had happened before as a result of circumstances in the
personal life of the current MP and need not be fatal to our chances of holding the
seat. Heywood & Middleton was something of a wild card where the former Labour
council leader was standing for the Brexit Party, but he did not appear to have a
significant personal vote. Bolton had seen a miserable set of results in the spring
local government elections and she would be keeping an eye on it; similarly Blackpool
might end up needing to concentrate more on defending Blackpool South than
seeking to gain Blackpool North & Cleveleys.
For Scotland, the Deputy General Secretary ran through the rationale for the
alternative list suggested by the Scottish Labour leadership, which was of the same
size, but slightly different character, from the initial list. All Labour held seats (as on
our suggested list) were to be regarded as defensive key seats, but the 10 offensive
seats were subtly different reflecting both the character of the challenge and the
geography of possible resourcing. Changes were the deletion of East Renfrewshire,
Glasgow North West, Linlithgow & East Falkirk, West Dunbartonshire, and the addition
of Airdrie & Shotts, Dunfermline & West Fife, Edinburgh North & Leith, Lanark &
Hamilton East. These changes were accepted since they did not change the overall
number of key seats.
In the South East, the Regional Director was broadly content with the list given the
strategic objective, but asked that Thanet South, where there was no candidate
following NCC action, and the local party was currently extremely divided and
internally focused, be swapped with Reading West, where there was a strong and
hardworking candidate and a local party more likely to be able to translate additional
resources into effective campaigning. This change was accepted since it did not
change the overall number of key seats, or the balance between offensive & defensive
seats. She also flagged Portsmouth South as a potential defensive seat to consider. It
had been a 2017 gain from the Tories, and a Lib Dem seat until 2015, and both parties
retained strong organization there; furthermore the constituency aggregate for this
year’s local elections showed that the seat would have been gained by the Lib Dems.
In the South West, the Regional Director was broadly content with the list given the
strategic objective. He asked however that North Swindon, where the candidate’s
conduct had caused a number of concerns and was likely by itself to make both that
seat and adjacent South Swindon much harder, be swapped with Filton & Bradley
Stoke, which seat was better organised, had stronger relationships with major unions,
was more focused on victory and where the hill to climb was lesser. He also flagged
that the Tory MP in North Swindon was an effective campaigner whereas the Tory MP
in Filton & Bradley Stoke was fairly hopeless. This change was accepted since it did not
change the overall number of key seats, or the balance between offensive & defensive
seats.
The Welsh General Secretary expressed her concern about the absence of any
defensive seats on the list in Wales. She thought all of Gower, Vale of Clwyd,
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Wrexham, Ynys Môn, and Cardiff North were potentially in need of resourcing, above
all given recent Welsh polling, and that although she understood the rationale and
supported the objective, she did wonder whether a slightly more defensive posture
might be appropriate given that we had a Welsh Labour government and therefore
our campaign in Wales could not have the insurgent character of an election
campaign in England.
For the West Midlands, the Regional Director was extremely concerned about many
currently Labour-held seats, which in view of the current political situation he
regarded as at risk from the Tory advance which the polls seemed to suggest. He
accepted the point about the political desire for a strong offensive strategy, but were
a more defensive strategy to be adopted he would be keen to resource Stoke-on-
Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Birmingham Northfield, Wolverhampton North
East. He felt that both Nuneaton, and Halesowen & Rowley Regis, were right at the
outer edge of what we could realistically aim for in current circumstances.
In Yorkshire & the Humber, the Regional Director felt that this was an ambitious list,
matching the objective of resourcing the seats which currently stood between us and
a Labour government. Some of these seats were going to be extremely challenging,
perhaps most obviously Morley & Outwood, which although marginal on paper would
be extremely hard for us to actually win, as the long term demographic trends were
pulling it away from us. He noted that resourcing Scarborough & Whitby with staff
would be hard given its geographic distance from the rest of the Labour areas in the
region, and drew attention to the wider resourcing issues in the region. In terms of
the defensive element of the list for Yorkshire & the Humber, he agreed with the
inclusion of Colne Valley, Keighley, and Penistone & Stocksbridge, the last of which he
thought would be extremely hard. He noted without demurring that Sheffield Hallam
was not on the list, but wondered whether some of the more “Remainy” Labour-held
seats where there was a clear threat from the Liberal Democrats shouldn’t perhaps be
on the list, in particular Leeds North West.
He raised also the concerns that Jon Trickett MP had repeatedly raised about his own
ostensibly safe seat in Hemsworth, in the Wakefield district, where the Tories were
strong and support for Brexit had been high. Trickett was keen to secure an organiser
for the area and if this this was to be resourced it would probably work best if the
staff member concerned could cover the district as a whole, since insofar as the
concerns Trickett raised were justified, they were also concerns in Wakefield itself and
in the Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford seat. He also asked that we keep an eye
– especially if the wider electoral context became more difficult and the list were to be
reviewed – on Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe, and on Rother Valley, all of which were
areas where a strong performance by the Brexit Party could end up seeing the seat
fall to the Conservatives.
The full list and the changes made as a result of these conversations are attached as
Appendix 1 to this note.
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Regional/national strategic concerns

The Welsh General Secretary emphasized that although she thought the key seat list
was rational given the strategic objective of a Labour majority government for the UK,
she also felt that the special circumstances of Wales, with an incumbent Labour
government, meant that it was likely the First Minister would have concerns and
would want to raise these with the leadership.
The London Regional Director and Deputy Regional Director felt that both the key
seats on the list and also a large number of ostensibly safer Labour-held seats in
London were at risk of a strong Liberal Democrat performance in the city, which given
their result in the European elections was not a remotely unlikely outcome.
General strategic concerns

Both the North West Regional Director and the Yorkshire & Humber Regional Director
raised the importance, given the emerging threat from the Liberal Democrats, and of
having and sharing with regional colleagues both:
 a clear strategy for the seats in which we were directly opposed to them, and
 much more importantly, for squeezing their vote in places where a strong
Liberal Democrat performance could make the difference between the seat
falling to Labour and it remaining in Conservative hands.
The South West Regional Director, plus the London Regional team, emphasized the
importance of a uniform approach to dealing with early selection seat candidates
whose seat was not included on this list, since the candidates all communicated with
one another across regional boundaries.
Polling and its analysis: multilevel regression and post

stratification (MRP)
Introduction
MRP is the method of analysis which was first used in Britain for political polling by
YouGov in 2017 to correctly predict a number of marginal constituencies (notably,
Hastings & Rye) in which the electoral behaviour of the seat was radically at variance
with what might be expected from any prediction based on uniform national swing.
The approach has now established its worth as a basis for making accurate estimates
of individual seat outcomes, especially marginal seat outcomes.
Essentially, MRP uses a very large amount of information about the electorate as a
whole, plus a statistical model allowing a large number of different variables to be
taken into account at both individual and area (contextual) levels, to make very
precise predictions about particular small populations (that is, constituencies) within
the wider population.
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MRP allows a large number of locally important contextual variables to be taken into
account in a statistically robust way. It therefore represents a much more rigorous
approach than the traditional “draw up a list based on uniform national swing and
make a few ad hoc changes based on informed hunches not based on numerically
explicit analysis”.
The volume of people required in a polling sample for estimates prepared using MRP
to be robust means that endeavouring to build such a model on the back of the small-
sample polling the party conducts for other purposes is seldom economical, and may
lead to severe error. At the start of the 2017 snap election, absent any polling data
from established we had to use data from a badly sampled BMG poll to create models
to predict the outcomes of the election if the polls didn’t move.
Not only did the polls move substantially, especially in the last few weeks of the
election, but we were intensely aware that our model was an imperfect basis for
allocating resources because it relied on poor data and in consequence projections
for many areas came with a wide margin of error. Having a rigorously produced and
statistically robust model which could act as a basis at once defensible and sensible
for resource allocation across the Party ahead of the next election should help
manage the politics of supporting different seats with different levels of resource and
moving from an Early Selections List based solely on marginality to one based on a
more sophisticated approach.
A further advantage of MRP over constituency-level polling is that once the analysis
has been done and the post-stratification frame has been constructed, it is fairly
straightforward both (a) to use a smaller subsequent dataset to update the underlying
model quickly, and (b) to revise it slightly to generate predictions on any given set of
different boundaries.
Source of data & data quality checks

The data source for the analysis conducted here was syndicated data (that is to say,
data originally collected for a different client) which we were able to purchase from
YouGov at a discounted price (since it had already been collected). This enabled us to
move quickly on delivering analysis based on recent polling. This polling was in the
field at the end of August.
Before commencing the use of the dataset for MRP, we conducted an assessment of
its quality, of which the key points are as below.
Sample size
 The sample size is fairly large and contains a reasonable list of demographic
variables.
 Including those whose voting intention is “Don’t know”, n = 23,391.
 Excluding those whose voting intention is “Don’t know”, n = 19, 370.
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Distribution of weights
Table 2. Distribution of weights in the polling dataset used for MRP.
Minimum 1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile Maximum

0.38 0.72 0.83 1.00 1.03 9.50
 The distribution of weights is somewhat positively skewed.

 There are a reasonably small number of individuals with extremely large
balancing weight values up to a maximum of 9.50. These fall outside of the
acceptable range and we might consider trimming them in future. In contrast,
73% of the sample have weight values that are below 1.
 It is clear that many of the individuals with extremely large weight values are in
the age 18-25 range, suggesting an issue with the original sampling frame in
obtaining sufficient numbers of respondents in this age category.
 Indeed, in the non-weighted sampling frame, there are 214 individuals in Age18-
25 (8.4%). In the weighted sample, this rises to 3040 individuals (11.9%).
Representativeness of sample
 The tables below compare the demographic composition of the survey sample
(pre- and post-weighting) with the British electorate.
 Mosaic Groups D, E, G, H, J and O are over-represented in the YouGov sample,
both before and after weights were applied.
 In contrast, Mosaic Groups A, B, C, F, K, M and N are under-represented.
Table 3. Demographic representativeness of the polling dataset used for MRP.
Weighted YouGov
Mosaic Group Great Britain electorate (%) YouGov sample (%) sample (%)
A 4.4 3.1 3.6
B 9.6 8.0 7.2
C 7.0 6.2 5.6
D 6.3 7.9 7.6
E 6.8 8.7 8.3
F 8.8 7.1 6.8
G 8.2 10.2 9.8
H 8.8 10.9 10.9
I 8.0 7.1 7.7
J 4.8 6.0 6.2
K 5.6 4.0 4.6
L 4.4 4.7 4.8
M 6.4 5.3 5.4
N 5.0 3.8 4.3
O 6.1 7.0 7.4
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 Compared to those registered to vote, the YouGov sample under-represents

younger people, particularly aged 26-35. The weights actually over-compensate
for the Age 18-25 group (perhaps it is more in line with the population than those
registered to vote).
Table 4. Distribution of age groups in the polling dataset used for MRP.
Weighted
YouGov sample
Age Group Great Britain electorate (%) YouGov sample (%) (%)
Age 18-25 9.0 8.4 11.9
Age 26-35 16.8 13.5 14.0
Age 36-45 18.9 17.4 18.0
Age 46-55 18.0 18.4 18.0
Age 56-65 14.7 18.6 16.6
Age 65+ 22.6 23.6 21.5
 Generally, the regional distribution is representative after the sampling weights

are applied. Prior to this, there is only a substantial under-representation of
individuals in London. Table 5 illustrates this point.
Table 5. Distribution of regions/nations in the polling dataset used for MRP.
Weighted YouGov
Region Great Britain electorate (%) YouGov sample sample
East Midlands 7.5 8.1 8
Eastern 9.7 9.6 9.3
London 12.8 9.5 12
North 4.6 4.9 5
North West 10.9 10.8 10.7
Scotland 9.1 9.1 8.6
South East 14.3 14.7 14
South West 9.0 10.3 10
Wales 4.8 5.4 5.1
West Midlands 8.9 8.6 8.5
Yorkshire and Humber 8.4 8.0 8.7
 The initial sampling frame significantly over-represents the female population

and under-represents the male population, as Table 6 shows.
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Table 6. Distribution of gender in the polling dataset used for MRP.
Gender Great Britain electorate (%) YouGov sample Weighted YouGov sample
Female 51.4 56.3 51.6
Male 48.6 43.7 48.4
Assessment
Our view is that this dataset, considered as a whole, is highly representative of the
British electorate and a very suitable basis for MRP analysis to make constituency
level predictions.
Headline voting intention from the poll (before MRP analysis)

The poll is from YouGov and conducted at the end of August 2019. Like many recent
polls, it shows Labour a fair distance behind the Conservatives and only a small
distance ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
YouGov polling top lines have often been slightly less favourable to Labour than those
of other pollsters, but the size and quality of the dataset makes us extremely reluctant
to regard that as a source for concern, especially since some of the basis for such
concerns in general surrounds methodological issues around weighting which in an
internally conducted analysis are much more under our control.
Key points from the initial analysis of the dataset considered as a whole are as
outlined below.
Vote intention excluding “Don’t knows”

 As Table 7 shows, with “don’t knows” excluded from the analysis, the Tories have
a significant lead over Labour of 32.6% compared to 21.7%.
 The Liberal Democrats are close behind Labour on 19.5% with the Brexit Party
some way behind on 12.8%.
 The Green Party’s vote share is higher than perhaps expected at 7.1%.
Table 7. National Voteshares in the polling dataset used for MRP (excluding
“don’t know”s).
Party Weighted Count Weighted Vote Share (%)

Labour 3999 21.7
Tory 5989 32.6
Brexit 2348 12.8
Green 1304 7.1
SNP 753 4.1
Other 418 2.3
Lib Dem 3582 19.5
Sample size: 19,370
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Vote intention including “Don’t knows”

 As Table 8 shows, a significant proportion – some 18.7% - of the sample are not
sure how they are going to vote in the next election.
Table 8. National Voteshares in the polling dataset used for MRP (including
“don’t know”s).
Party Weighted Count Weighted Vote Share (%)

Labour 3999 17.7
Tory 5989 26.5
Brexit 2348 10.4
Green 1304 5.8
SNP 753 3.3
Other 418 1.9
Don't know 4224 18.7
Lib Dem 3582 15.8
Sample size: 23,391
Why are we doing MRP in house?

MRP is extremely computationally difficult, requires extremely advanced quantitative
political science skills, and requires also access to high volume polling data. For all
three of these reasons it is usually extremely expensive to conduct.
However, provided the polling data can be acquired at reasonable cost, as here, then
it is efficient to do it in house. Staff in the Targeting & Analysis team have been on
training to use Bayesian techniques to enable them to emulate the approach YouGov
took to this, in-house.
Unlike most other people doing MRP work who have adequate access to high volumes
of polling data, but have trouble with all three of:
 constructing an adequate turnout model;
 constructing a post-stratification frame (the P of MRP), whereby a model is
related back to the electorate of each individual constituency;
 computational issues associated with the model itself;
we have a slightly different set of challenges. We have a lot of experience in-house on

turnout modelling and our experience at scoring back from our models to create
propensity scores for electors mean that we are experienced at creating post-
stratification frames.
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We have solved our computational difficulties through extensive preparation and

using hired cloud processor cores in parallel to tackle models of immense
computational complexity in just a day or so.
Modelling turnout effectively remains a challenge for polling firms. To take into
account differential turnout we weight voter types in each constituency by their
predicted turnout propensity before aggregating predictions to the constituency level.
Turnout propensity scores (which we create on a regular basis from marked register
data, to assist local parties with their campaigning) measure – on a scale between 0
and 100 – how likely electors are to turnout to vote, estimated from their
demographic characteristics and contextual information. These estimates are based
on a large sample of complete 2017 marked register data. This means that rather
than using self-reported turnout, which is what polling companies have to rely on, we
use turnout estimates based on actual 2017 turnout. Our models are therefore much
more likely to be accurate.
One caveat for this approach however is that it assumes similar demographic turnout
patterns in a snap general election as in the 2017 general election. This is a problem
faced by polling companies as much as by us. There is currently no alternative known
to us, other than not including any turnout weighting which traditionally is expected
to show worse results (less accurate) than using turnout weightings based on turnout
in the last election.
Our MRP approach and what data it uses about areas and individuals
Multilevel regression (the MR of MRP) allows us to use a wide range of relevant

variables, at both individual and constituency level, in an extremely statistically robust
fashion, and the models used in our approach use a very wide range of electorally
relevant data, as shown in Table 9, below.
There are three types of variables used in these models: individual-level

demographics, constituency-level demographics, and constituency political data.
Individual-level demographics include the baseline variables we hold, which are

gender, age, income, education, work status, marital status, tenure status, whether
the individual has children, and constituency. Constituency-level demographics
include a range of thirteen variables covering education, employment, and location.
Examples include population density (%), people born in the UK (%), people in poor
health (%), and distance to nearest cosmopolitan city.
Finally, constituency political data covers all relevant recent electoral data, including
constituency vote share for all major parties in the 2015 and 2017 general elections,
and estimated proportion of people voting Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum.
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There were differences for Scotland, where data availability is slightly more limited.
Some constituency-level demographics, such as employment categories and
percentage in poor health, were absent. However, one variable – proportion of
Catholic residents by constituency (%) – was included for Scotland for the purpose of
helping to distinguish better between Labour and SNP supporters.
Table 9. Data used to create our models.

The list in square brackets after each categorical variable indicates the structure of
that variable in the analysis.
Individual-Level Constituency-Level Constituency Political Data

Demographics Demographics
Constituency Population Density (%) Estimated Leave 2016

Gender [M; F] Born in the UK (%) Proportion (%)
Kids [Y; N] Unemployed (%) Labour Vote Share 2015 (%)
Marital Status [S; M] Retired (%) Labour Vote Share 2017 (%)
Age [18-25; 26-35; 36-45; 46-55; Economically Inactive (%) Conservative Vote Share 2015
56-65; 65+] Degree (%) (%)
Tenure [Owner-Occupy; Working in Manufacturing (%) * Conservative Vote Share 2017
Council; Private Rent] Working in Public Sector (%) * (%)
Education [No qualifications; Urban or Rural (%) * Liberal Democrat Vote Share
GCSEs; A-levels; Vocational Poor Health (%) * 2015 (%)
qualifications; University or Catholic Schools (%) * Liberal Democrat Vote Share
higher] Distance to Nearest University * 2017 (%)
Work Status [Full time; Part- Distance to Nearest Green Party Vote Share 2015
time; Student or Unemployed] Cosmopolitan City * (%)
Income [£3,250-£12,500; Proportion of population who Green Party Vote Share 2017
£17,500-£32,500; £37,500- are Catholic (%) ** (%)
£55,000; £65,000+] UKIP Vote Share 2015 (%)
UKIP Vote Share 2017 (%)
SNP Vote Share 2015 (%) **
SNP Vote Share 2017 (%) **
Plaid Vote Share 2015 (%) ***
Plaid Vote Share 2017 (%) ***
* Not available for Scotland

** Scotland only
*** Wales only
How can MRP inform our strategy?

We believe that MRP, including this analysis, can inform our strategy in three principal
ways.
Firstly, it assists at the very highest level by identifying the nature of the challenge as a
whole: whether the likely outcome of the next election unless the polls move is a
change in our favour in terms of seats, or a change which harms us, and allowing an
informed consideration of whether resource allocation should reflect an objective (as
p15
the current list does) of resourcing the seats which stand between us and
government, or an objective of resourcing seats where those resources are most likely
to have maximum effect on the overall outcome of the election.
Secondly, it helps us by separating clearly within a key seat list, the notions of
marginality and winnability. It provides very precise estimates of what current polls
imply for each seat given the demographic and political context of that seat as well as
the characteristics of its electors, and thus allowing seats that are close but with little
room for Labour to advance to be differentiated from those where there is a larger hill
to climb numerically, but a much higher chance of us succeeding in climbing it.
Thirdly, it allows improved understanding of seat-specific threats across the electoral

battleground through analysis of multiple fully estimated contests. For example, this
allows us to understand the role of third parties across multiple seats, by detailing the
seat-by-seat relationship between changes in voteshare for them and changes in
seatshare for the major parties.
MRP analysis: top lines and details of further analysis

The top lines of the analysis are that were the election to be conducted now, we
estimate that the outcome would be as detailed in the full table in Appendix 2.
Assuming no change to seat distribution in Northern Ireland, and no change to Sinn

Féin’s abstentionist policy as regards the British Parliament at Westminster, this would
translate into the seat distribution shown in Tables 10 & 11 (figures in brackets
represent changes on the 2017 result, not on the current state of play which is
obviously made more complex by the multiple defections, suspensions and
expulsions on both sides of the Commons).
Note also that the Speaker’s seat is here assumed to go Conservative, since he has
announced that he is standing down, and therefore these numbers represent party
strengths immediately before the election of a new Speaker.
p16
Table 10. Top line results for the House of Commons from our MRP work.
Changes shown (in brackets after each number) are relative to 2017 results rather than current party strengths. “n/c” indicates “no
change”.
INDEPEN
LABOUR TORY SNP PLAID LIBDEM GREEN BREXIT SINN FÉIN DUP DENT SPEAKER Total
Total 138 (-124) 387 (+70) 58 (+23) 2 (-2) 44 (+32) 1 (n/c) 2 (+2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (-1) 650
Table 11. Results by UK region/nation for the House of Commons from our MRP work.
Changes shown (in brackets after each number) are relative to 2017 results rather than current party strengths. “n/c” indicates “no
change”. No figures are shown in respect of regions where no MPs have been, or are predicted to be, elected from that Party.
Labour Tories SNP Plaid LibDem Green Brexit Sinn Féin DUP Ind Speaker Total
East Midlands 9 (-6) 36 (+5) 1 (+1) 46
Eastern 2 (-5) 52 (+2) 4 (+3) 58
London 31 (-18) 24 (+3) 18 (+15) 73
North 16 (-11) 17 (+11) 33
North West 30 (-23) 40 (+23) 1 (n/c) 71
Scotland 0 (-7) 0 (-13) 58 (+23) 1 (-3) 59
South East 5 (-3) 70 (-2) 8 (+6) 1 (n/c) 0 (-1) 84
South West 6 (-1) 46 (-1) 3 (+2) 55
Wales 10 (-18) 21 (+13) 2 (-2) 5 (+5) 2 (+2) 40
West Midlands 10 (-14) 49 (+14) 59
Yorkshire and
Humber 19 (-18) 32 (+15) 3 (+3) 54
Northern Ireland 7 (n/c) 10 (n/c) 1 (n/c) 18
138 (-
Total 124) 387 (+70) 58 (+23) 2 (-2) 44 (+32) 1 (n/c) 2 (+2) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (n/c) 0 (-1) 650
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The full consequences of such a defeat for Labour and analyses of how it would
happen are included in Appendices 3-12.
Appendix 3 sets out a full list of Labour MPs who on this MRP analysis would lose
their seats, broken down by the Party to which they would lose.
Appendix 4 sets out the same list, broken down by region/nation.
Appendix 5 lists all the seats which we would gain were the result to follow this
analysis.
Appendix 6 lists all the seats which we would be losing to the Conservatives largely
because of a LibDem surge, where the predicted Liberal Democrat increase in
voteshare would be greater than the predicted Tory majority.
Appendix 7 lists the constituencies which a simple uniform national swing analysis of
the same dataset would suggest that we would win but our more sophisticated MRP
approach suggested we would lose.
Appendix 8 is the reverse of Appendix 7 – it lists the constituencies which a simple

uniform national swing analysis of the same dataset would suggest that we would
lose but our more sophisticated MRP approach suggested we would win.
Appendix 9 is a list of all the current key seats (on the list in Appendix 1) where the
Liberal Democrats would see a bigger improvement than us. It is in fact the same list
as Appendix 1: this appears to be true of all the key seats.
Appendix 10 is a list of Labour-held seats which we would not hold on the MRP model
but where we would come within a margin of 4% or less: these are seats where
organizational resource allocation could plausibly achieve a different outcome.
Appendix 11 is a list of Early Selection Seats which we would not gain on the MRP
model but where we would come within a margin of 4% or less: these are seats where
organizational resource allocation could plausibly achieve a different outcome.
Appendix 12 is a somewhat disheartening list of the Labour MPs remaining after the
defeat that this analysis suggests.
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Challenges to consider
We believe that this analysis presents the party’s campaign leadership team with a set
of difficult challenges, of which the below is intended as a summary.
Nature of posture
On this analysis the result of the next election will, on current trends, represent a
significant step backward for Labour.
Our current resourcing is largely focused on making a major step forward and on the
basis of the work here the criticism we should expect immediately after the election
was that a campaign resourcing model based on pouring money into seats we didn’t
expect to come anywhere near winning, and starving seats which ended up being very
close, is a massive misallocation of the resources of the Labour Party.
Ultimately the nature of the campaign we seek to fight is a political decision, but we
believe it should be an informed political decision.
Choice of seats
On this analysis there are some seats (listed in Appendix 11) which we might wish to
consider adding to the key seat list. We have not prepared a full review of the key
seat list in light of the MRP work presented here, but we expect that will be the focus
of our work in the days and weeks ahead.
Liberal Democrat Threat

By far the most significant message that this analysis provides to us is the scale of the
Lib Dem threat to the Labour Party’s chances at the next general election. Insofar as
the analysis is correct, there will be relatively few direct losses of seats to the Liberal
Democrats.
Instead, in a way very reminiscent of the threat they posed to us in the 2005 general
election, their ability to take votes from us, and to attract from among swing voters
support that we otherwise might have been able to rip from the Tories.
We will need to have clear strategies for (i) blunting their appeal directly in seats
where they are directly in competition with us for victory, and (ii) squeezing their vote
and limiting their ability to attract votes
Leave, Remain, and relative stickiness

These results appear broadly consistent with the notion that, simply put, Labour
voters who backed a Leave outcome in the 2016 referendum are likely to stay Labour
even if we become a more pro-Remain party, whereas Labour voters who backed a
Remain outcome in the 2016 referendum are likely to move from Labour to a
p19
different pro-Remain party, if we are not clearly a pro-Remain party. There are
obvious political consequences which flow from such an understanding.
We will be exploring this point further in analyses over the coming weeks, to check
that this is indeed the case.
Segmentation of target voters

It is clear from the above observations that our current relatively simple political
segmentation for the next general election (regain/retain/gain/GOTV) is inadequate to
the political challenge which we will face at the next general election. We will need a
much stronger focus on preventing the splintering of the pro-Remain element of our
Party’s electoral coalition, and on attracting such voters from the Conservatives.
We will pick this work up with Tom Geldard and Tom Lavelle as soon as possible.
2020 local government elections

One of the great strengths of MRP is the ability, with changes to the poststratification
frame, to use the same approach to make estimates for just about any area. We will
explore altering the turnout model and endeavouring to use the same approach to
estimate outcomes of the 2020 local elections and identify areas where a clear
campaign focus could lead to improved results.
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Appendices (1-12)
Table of appendices to this document (with page references)
No. Content Page
1 List sent to the Regional Directors/General Secretaries with changes. 22
2 Full MRP projection of seat level results in Britain. 25
3 List of Labour MPs which MRP model predicts we would lose, by party to which 52
they are lost.
4 List of Labour MPs which MRP model predicts we would lose, by region/nation. 55
5 List of constituencies which the MRP model predicts we would gain. 59
6 List of constituencies which the MRP model predicts we would lose to the 60
Conservatives because of LibDem surge.
7 List of constituencies which UNS says we win but MRP says we lose. 63
8 List of constituencies which UNS says we lose but MRP says we win. 65
9 List of all current key seats where the Liberal Democrats would see a bigger 66
improvement than us.
10 List of Labour-held seats which we would not hold on the MRP model but we 67
would come within a margin of 4% or less.
11 List of Early Selection Seats which we would not gain on the MRP model but where 69
we would come within a margin of 4% or less.
12 Labour MPs remaining after a defeat on this scale. 70
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Appendix 1. List sent to the Regional Directors/General Secretaries with changes.
For obvious reasons the full initial list was not sent to any individual regional Director
or national General Secretary.
REGION/NATION CONSTITUENCY STATUS CHANGE (IF ANY)

East Midlands ASHFIELD Defensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands BROXTOWE Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands CORBY Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands EREWASH Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands MANSFIELD Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON NORTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON SOUTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
East Midlands SHERWOOD Offensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern BEDFORD Defensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern IPSWICH Defensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern PETERBOROUGH Defensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern NORWICH NORTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern STEVENAGE Offensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern THURROCK Offensive Remains following discussions.
Eastern WATFORD Offensive Remains following discussions.
London BATTERSEA Defensive Remains following discussions.
London ENFIELD SOUTHGATE Defensive Remains following discussions.
London KENSINGTON Defensive Remains following discussions.
London CHINGFORD & WOODFORD Offensive Remains following discussions.
GREEN
London CHIPPING BARNET Offensive Remains following discussions.
London FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN Offensive Remains following discussions.
London HARROW EAST Offensive Remains following discussions.
London HENDON Offensive Remains following discussions.
London PUTNEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
North BISHOP AUCKLAND Defensive Remains following discussions.
North STOCKTON SOUTH Defensive Remains following discussions.
North CARLISLE Offensive Remains following discussions.
North COPELAND Offensive Remains following discussions.
North MIDDLESBROUGH SOUTH & Offensive Remains following discussions.
EAST CLEVELAND
North West BARROW & FURNESS Defensive Remains following discussions.
North West CREWE & NANTWICH Defensive Remains following discussions.
North West BLACKPOOL NORTH & Offensive Remains following discussions.
CLEVELEYS
North West BOLTON WEST Offensive Remains following discussions.
North West MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE Offensive Remains following discussions.
North West PENDLE Offensive Remains following discussions.
North West ROSSENDALE & DARWEN Offensive Remains following discussions.
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Scotland COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & Defensive Remains following discussions.
BELLSHILL (W)
Scotland EAST LOTHIAN (W) Defensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland EDINBURGH SOUTH (W) Defensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH EAST (W) Defensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH Defensive Remains following discussions.
(W)
Scotland MIDLOTHIAN (W) Defensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland RUTHERGLEN & HAMILTON Defensive Remains following discussions.
WEST (W)
Scotland AIRDRIE & SHOTTS (W) Offensive Added following discussions
Scotland DUNFERMLINE & WEST FIFE Offensive Added following discussions
(W)
Scotland EAST RENFREWSHIRE (W) Offensive Removed following discussions.
Scotland EDINBURGH NORTH & LEITH Offensive Added following discussions
(W)
Scotland GLASGOW EAST (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH WEST (W) Offensive Removed following discussions.
Scotland GLASGOW SOUTH (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland GLASGOW SOUTH WEST (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland INVERCLYDE (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland LANARK & HAMILTON EAST Offensive Added following discussions
(W)
Scotland LINLITHGOW & EAST FALKIRK Offensive Removed following discussions.
(W)
Scotland MOTHERWELL & WISHAW (W) Offensive Remains following discussions.
Scotland WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE (W) Offensive Removed following discussions.
South East CANTERBURY Defensive Remains following discussions.
South East CRAWLEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
South East DOVER Offensive Remains following discussions.
South East HASTINGS & RYE Offensive Remains following discussions.
South East MILTON KEYNES NORTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
South East MILTON KEYNES SOUTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
South East READING WEST Offensive Added following discussions
South East SOUTH THANET Offensive Removed following discussions.
South East SOUTHAMPTON ITCHEN Offensive Remains following discussions.
South West STROUD Defensive Remains following discussions.
South West CAMBORNE & REDRUTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
South West FILTON AND BRADLEY STOKE Offensive Added following discussions
South West GLOUCESTER Offensive Remains following discussions.
South West NORTH SWINDON Offensive Removed following discussions.
South West PLYMOUTH MOOR VIEW Offensive Remains following discussions.
South West SOUTH SWINDON Offensive Remains following discussions.
South West TRURO & FALMOUTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
Wales ABERCONWY Offensive Remains following discussions.
Wales ARFON Offensive Remains following discussions.
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Wales CARMARTHEN WEST & Offensive Remains following discussions.
SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE
Wales CLWYD WEST Offensive Remains following discussions.
Wales PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE Offensive Remains following discussions.
Wales VALE OF GLAMORGAN Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands DUDLEY NORTH Defensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME Defensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Defensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH Defensive Remains following discussions.
WEST
West Midlands HALESOWEN & ROWLEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
REGIS
West Midlands NUNEATON Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT SOUTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands STOURBRIDGE Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands TELFORD Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands WALSALL NORTH Offensive Remains following discussions.
West Midlands WORCESTER Offensive Remains following discussions.
Yorkshire and COLNE VALLEY Defensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and KEIGHLEY Defensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and PENISTONE & STOCKSBRIDGE Defensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and CALDER VALLEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and MORLEY & OUTWOOD Offensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and PUDSEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and SCARBOROUGH & WHITBY Offensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
Yorkshire and SHIPLEY Offensive Remains following discussions.
Humber
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Appendix 2. Full MRP projection of seat level results in Britain.

The table below details the projections made from the model we have prepared. All GB seats are listed in Northern Ireland (the
analysis did not in fact include Buckingham, seat of the current Speaker, but for completeness it has been treated here as a
Conservative seat). The estimated result for each seat on both our MRP approach and a more simplistic Uniform National Swing
model prepared from the same data are calculated for each seat.
The columns should be understood as follows:
Maj17 – the majority of the winning party over the second-placed party as a percentage of votes cast at the 2017 general election.
LM17 – the majority of the Labour Party candidate over the best-placed non-Labour Party candidate, as a percentage of votes cast at the 2017 general
election. Negative values indicate that Labour was that far behind the winning party.
PRLM – the predicted majority of Labour Party candidate over the best-placed non-Labour Party candidate, as a percentage of votes cast, at an election now,
using our MRP approach. Negative values indicate that Labour would be that far behind the winning party.
PRW – the predicted party of the winner of this seat at an election held now, using our MRP approach.
17W – the party of the winner of this seat in 2017.
CHG-MRP – the estimated change, according to our MRP approach, in which party holds this seat.
ULM – the predicted majority of Labour Party candidate over the best-placed non-Labour Party candidate, as a percentage of votes cast, at an election now,
the predicted party of the winner of this seat at an election held now, according to a simple Uniform National Swing model (obtained by plugging top line
national figures into the Electoral Calculus website’s user poll function, available online at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html). Negative values
indicate that Labour would be that far behind the winning party.
UW – the predicted party of the winner of this seat at an election held now, according to a simple Uniform National Swing (UNS) model (obtained by plugging
top line national figures into the Electoral Calculus website’s user poll function, available online at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html).
CHG-UNS – the estimated change, according to a simple Uniform National Swing (UNS) model (obtained by plugging top line national figures into the Electoral
Calculus website’s user poll function, available online at https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html), in which party holds this seat.
D-MRP-UNS – any difference between the two predictions (MRP or UNS): MRP is shown first if they differ, and the word “SAME” is printed if they are the same.
Maj17 D-MRP-
Region/Nation Constituency (%) LM17 (%) PRLM (%) PRW 17W CHG-MRP ULM (%) UW CHG-UNS UNS
LABOUR TO TORY-
Wales ABERAVON 50.38 50.38 -7.99 TORY LABOUR TORY 8.5 LABOUR LABOUR
TORY TO LIBDEM-
Wales ABERCONWY 1.98 -1.98 -8.84 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -19.2 TORY TORY
Scotland ABERDEEN NORTH (W) 11.26 -11.26 -13.14 SNP SNP -34.6 SNP SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland ABERDEEN SOUTH (W) 10.68 -21.58 -24.96 SNP TORY SNP -34.2 SNP SNP SAME
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Maj17 D-MRP-
Scotland AIRDRIE & SHOTTS (W) 0.51 -0.51 -19.01 SNP SNP -23.8 SNP SAME
South East ALDERSHOT 23.44 -23.44 -17.71 TORY TORY -25.9 TORY SAME
West Midlands ALDRIDGE - BROWNHILLS 35.56 -35.56 -19.87 TORY TORY -33.9 TORY SAME
North West ALTRINCHAM & SALE WEST 12.17 -12.17 -9.41 TORY TORY -13.5 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales ALYN & DEESIDE 11.70 11.70 6.65 LABOUR LABOUR -12.5 TORY TORY TORY
East Midlands AMBER VALLEY 18.12 -18.12 -19.15 TORY TORY -16.5 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland ANGUS (W) 6.58 -32.13 -28.91 SNP TORY SNP -41.6 SNP SNP SAME
PLAID TO TORY-
Wales ARFON 0.33 -0.33 -27.91 TORY PLAID TORY -13.8 PLAID PLAID
Scotland ARGYLL & BUTE (W) 2.76 -23.42 -17.84 SNP SNP -39 SNP SAME
South East ARUNDEL & SOUTH DOWNS 39.64 -39.64 -20.45 TORY TORY -35.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
East Midlands ASHFIELD 0.88 0.88 3.02 LABOUR LABOUR -7 TORY TORY TORY
South East ASHFORD 29.19 -29.19 -20.2 TORY TORY -30.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West ASHTON UNDER LYNE 28.40 28.40 -3.74 TORY LABOUR TORY 9.8 LABOUR LABOUR
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South East AYLESBURY 24.93 -24.93 -18.07 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -27.1 TORY TORY
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland AYR, CARRICK & CUMNOCK (W) 6.00 -16.28 -21.38 SNP TORY SNP -33.5 SNP SNP SAME
South East BANBURY 20.14 -20.14 -15.86 TORY TORY -24.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland BANFF & BUCHAN (W) 8.87 -38.52 -22.94 SNP TORY SNP -42 SNP SNP SAME
London BARKING 45.32 45.32 6.64 LABOUR LABOUR 18.2 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber BARNSLEY CENTRAL 39.77 39.77 4.79 LABOUR LABOUR 13.1 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber BARNSLEY EAST 32.58 32.58 0.66 LABOUR LABOUR 9.4 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West BARROW & FURNESS 0.44 0.44 -5.24 TORY LABOUR TORY -6.6 TORY TORY SAME
Eastern BASILDON & BILLERICAY 29.83 -29.83 -21.24 TORY TORY -29.7 TORY SAME
South East BASINGSTOKE 16.92 -16.92 -15.92 TORY TORY -22.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands BASSETLAW 9.29 9.29 -5.43 TORY LABOUR TORY -3.3 TORY TORY SAME
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Maj17 D-MRP-
South West BATH 11.48 -32.59 -24.74 LIBDEM LIBDEM -50.3 LIBDEM SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber BATLEY & SPEN 16.66 16.66 -2.69 TORY LABOUR TORY 7.6 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London BATTERSEA 4.39 4.39 -5.78 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -4.2 TORY TORY TORY
South East BEACONSFIELD 43.80 -43.80 -30.22 TORY TORY -37.9 TORY SAME
London BECKENHAM 29.22 -29.22 -19.79 TORY TORY -30.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Eastern BEDFORD 1.63 1.63 -8.01 TORY LABOUR TORY -8.8 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
London BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK 22.17 22.17 -6.23 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -18.9 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
North BERWICK-UPON-TWEED 27.91 -27.91 -15.7 TORY TORY -23.7 TORY SAME
BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH & TORY TO
Scotland SELKIRK (W) 21.12 -45.25 -19.78 SNP TORY SNP -42.5 TORY SNP-TORY
London BETHNAL GREEN & BOW 59.16 59.16 7.85 LABOUR LABOUR 33.6 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber BEVERLEY & HOLDERNESS 25.24 -25.24 -14.35 TORY TORY -22.3 TORY SAME
South East BEXHILL & BATTLE 37.27 -37.27 -23.5 TORY TORY -36.1 TORY SAME
London BEXLEYHEATH & CRAYFORD 20.08 -20.08 -13.77 TORY TORY -24.9 TORY SAME
North West BIRKENHEAD 58.43 58.43 10.74 LABOUR LABOUR 27.7 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON 15.86 15.86 -2.29 TORY LABOUR TORY -0.6 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON 19.57 19.57 -7.92 TORY LABOUR TORY 1.5 LABOUR LABOUR
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN 62.50 62.50 17.18 LABOUR LABOUR 37.1 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM HODGE HILL 66.88 66.88 14.94 LABOUR LABOUR 42.4 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM LADYWOOD 69.51 69.51 14.2 LABOUR LABOUR 39 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD 10.52 10.52 -0.99 TORY LABOUR TORY -5.6 TORY TORY SAME
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM PERRY BARR 41.59 41.59 3.37 LABOUR LABOUR 19.1 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM SELLY OAK 31.04 31.04 3.19 LABOUR LABOUR 7.4 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM YARDLEY 37.24 37.24 1.05 LABOUR LABOUR 6.8 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North BISHOP AUCKLAND 1.16 1.16 -4.26 TORY LABOUR TORY -6.2 TORY TORY SAME
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Maj17 D-MRP-
North West BLACKBURN 42.87 42.87 8.25 LABOUR LABOUR 28.6 LABOUR SAME
North West BLACKLEY & BROUGHTON 48.86 48.86 2.36 LABOUR LABOUR 26.9 LABOUR SAME
North West BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS 4.93 -4.93 -9.66 TORY TORY -10 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West BLACKPOOL SOUTH 7.22 7.22 -7.98 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.4 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Wales BLAENAU GWENT 36.77 36.77 -4.43 TORY LABOUR TORY 6.2 LABOUR LABOUR
North BLAYDON 28.03 28.03 4.51 LABOUR LABOUR 7 LABOUR SAME
North BLYTH VALLEY 18.63 18.63 0.31 LABOUR LABOUR 3 LABOUR SAME
BOGNOR REGIS &
South East LITTLEHAMPTON 34.07 -34.07 -19.23 TORY TORY -34.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands BOLSOVER 11.37 11.37 -0.7 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.9 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West BOLTON NORTH EAST 8.40 8.40 -0.08 TORY LABOUR TORY 0.8 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West BOLTON SOUTH EAST 31.01 31.01 -1.5 TORY LABOUR TORY 15 LABOUR LABOUR
North West BOLTON WEST 1.83 -1.83 -15.59 TORY TORY -8.5 TORY SAME
North West BOOTLE 71.99 71.99 22.69 LABOUR LABOUR 34.9 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands BOSTON & SKEGNESS 38.65 -38.65 -20.61 TORY TORY -29.1 TORY SAME
East Midlands BOSWORTH 32.67 -32.67 -19.93 TORY TORY -26.4 TORY SAME
South West BOURNEMOUTH EAST 16.33 -16.33 -12.02 TORY TORY -21.6 TORY SAME
South West BOURNEMOUTH WEST 17.33 -17.33 -13.26 TORY TORY -21.6 TORY SAME
South East BRACKNELL 28.66 -28.66 -20.09 TORY TORY -29.8 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber BRADFORD EAST 45.02 45.02 21.55 LABOUR LABOUR 32 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber BRADFORD SOUTH 16.32 16.32 -5.6 TORY LABOUR TORY 5.6 LABOUR LABOUR
Yorkshire and Humber BRADFORD WEST 48.11 48.11 12.14 LABOUR LABOUR 42 LABOUR SAME
Eastern BRAINTREE 35.21 -35.21 -21.08 TORY TORY -32.9 TORY SAME
Wales BRECON & RADNORSHIRE 19.45 -30.84 -20.28 TORY TORY -30.8 TORY SAME
London BRENT CENTRAL 53.54 53.54 11.46 LABOUR LABOUR 24.2 LABOUR SAME
London BRENT NORTH 30.23 30.23 0.87 LABOUR LABOUR 10.2 LABOUR SAME
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LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH 19.77 19.77 -9.03 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 2.1 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern BRENTWOOD & ONGAR 45.36 -45.36 -24.05 TORY TORY -38.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales BRIDGEND 10.87 10.87 -14.09 TORY LABOUR TORY -12.3 TORY TORY SAME
South West BRIDGWATER & WEST SOMERSET 26.51 -26.51 -19.12 TORY TORY -29.6 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber BRIGG & GOOLE 27.44 -27.44 -11.58 TORY TORY -23.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
South East BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN 20.05 20.05 0.25 LABOUR LABOUR -1.3 TORY TORY TORY
South East BRIGHTON PAVILION 25.48 -25.48 -13.03 GREEN GREEN -47.8 GREEN SAME
South West BRISTOL EAST 26.37 26.37 11.97 LABOUR LABOUR 2.6 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
South West BRISTOL NORTH WEST 8.80 8.80 0.37 LABOUR LABOUR -7.5 TORY TORY TORY
South West BRISTOL SOUTH 29.40 29.40 8.59 LABOUR LABOUR 3.3 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
South West BRISTOL WEST 52.14 52.14 0.24 LABOUR LABOUR -6.3 GREEN GREEN GREEN
Eastern BROADLAND 28.26 -28.26 -18.99 TORY TORY -29.4 TORY SAME
London BROMLEY & CHISLEHURST 20.55 -20.55 -22.06 TORY TORY -24.3 TORY SAME
West Midlands BROMSGROVE 30.67 -30.67 -15.42 TORY TORY -31.8 TORY SAME
Eastern BROXBOURNE 33.26 -33.26 -28.18 TORY TORY -31.3 TORY SAME
East Midlands BROXTOWE 1.55 -1.55 -8.01 TORY TORY -7.9 TORY SAME
South East BUCKINGHAM TORY SPEAKER TORY N/A
North West BURNLEY 15.77 15.77 5.55 LABOUR LABOUR 1.9 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands BURTON 20.13 -20.13 -26.8 TORY TORY -23 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West BURY NORTH 9.13 9.13 -2.76 TORY LABOUR TORY 0.1 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West BURY SOUTH 11.70 11.70 -1.56 TORY LABOUR TORY 0.6 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern BURY ST EDMUNDS 29.67 -29.67 -16.72 TORY TORY -29 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales CAERPHILLY 29.25 29.25 1.53 LABOUR LABOUR -2.3 TORY TORY TORY
CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND & LIBDEM TO
Scotland EASTER ROSS (W) 6.61 -23.39 -24.14 SNP LIBDEM SNP -38.7 LIBDEM SNP-SNP
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Yorkshire and Humber CALDER VALLEY 1.05 -1.05 -4.54 TORY TORY -7.1 TORY SAME
London CAMBERWELL & PECKHAM 65.00 65.00 8 LABOUR LABOUR 21.1 LABOUR SAME
South West CAMBORNE & REDRUTH 3.25 -3.25 -10.59 TORY TORY -16.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Eastern CAMBRIDGE 22.64 22.64 -1.89 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -23.3 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
West Midlands CANNOCK CHASE 17.53 -17.53 -13.96 TORY TORY -22.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
South East CANTERBURY 0.33 0.33 -7.13 TORY LABOUR TORY -13.5 TORY TORY SAME
Wales CARDIFF CENTRAL 42.60 42.60 3.24 LABOUR LABOUR 3.9 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales CARDIFF NORTH 8.02 8.02 -3.79 TORY LABOUR TORY -13.5 TORY TORY SAME
Wales CARDIFF SOUTH & PENARTH 29.30 29.30 -7.84 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -0.6 TORY TORY TORY
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales CARDIFF WEST 26.92 26.92 -5.16 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.7 TORY TORY SAME
North CARLISLE 6.04 -6.04 -8.76 TORY TORY -9.8 TORY SAME
Wales CARMARTHEN EAST & DINEFWR 9.52 -9.52 -23.11 PLAID PLAID -18 PLAID SAME
CARMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH
Wales PEMBROKESHIRE 7.37 -7.37 -4.59 TORY TORY -22.7 TORY SAME
London CARSHALTON & WALLINGTON 2.70 -22.58 -16.36 LIBDEM LIBDEM -36.2 LIBDEM SAME
Eastern CASTLE POINT 42.21 -42.21 -16.56 TORY TORY -37.2 TORY SAME
Scotland CENTRAL AYRSHIRE (W) 2.81 -11.11 -26.02 SNP SNP -34.4 SNP SAME
South West CENTRAL DEVON 27.11 -27.11 -17.57 TORY TORY -30.4 TORY SAME
CENTRAL SUFFOLK & NORTH
Eastern IPSWICH 30.40 -30.40 -14.72 TORY TORY -30.6 TORY SAME
PLAID TO PLAID-
Wales CEREDIGION 0.26 -9.07 -16.71 PLAID PLAID -24 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
East Midlands CHARNWOOD 29.62 -29.62 -26.4 TORY TORY -24.4 TORY SAME
South East CHATHAM & AYLESFORD 23.30 -23.30 -14.48 TORY TORY -25.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY-
North West CHEADLE 8.26 -25.50 -25.06 TORY TORY -33.5 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
Eastern CHELMSFORD 23.87 -23.87 -22.32 TORY TORY -25.5 TORY SAME
London CHELSEA & FULHAM 19.44 -19.44 -21.71 TORY TORY -19.4 TORY SAME
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TORY TO TORY TO
South West CHELTENHAM 4.51 -37.20 -26.85 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -44.2 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South East CHESHAM & AMERSHAM 40.07 -40.07 -20.55 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -35.3 TORY TORY
East Midlands CHESTERFIELD 20.04 20.04 4.42 LABOUR LABOUR 3.2 LABOUR SAME
South East CHICHESTER 37.75 -37.75 -28.46 TORY TORY -33.8 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
London CHINGFORD & WOODFORD GREEN 5.19 -5.19 -9.07 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -14.2 TORY TORY
TORY TO TORY-
South West CHIPPENHAM 29.10 -35.06 -21.4 TORY TORY -30.1 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
London CHIPPING BARNET 0.64 -0.64 -13.38 TORY TORY -10.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West CHORLEY 13.50 13.50 -6.07 TORY LABOUR TORY -0.3 TORY TORY SAME
South West CHRISTCHURCH 49.71 -49.71 -25.97 TORY TORY -41.4 TORY SAME
CITIES OF LONDON & TORY TO LIBDEM-
London WESTMINSTER 8.14 -8.14 -22.12 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -11.9 TORY TORY
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West CITY OF CHESTER 16.26 16.26 -3.94 TORY LABOUR TORY 3.2 LABOUR LABOUR
North CITY OF DURHAM 25.59 25.59 2.26 LABOUR LABOUR 6 LABOUR SAME
Eastern CLACTON 35.85 -35.85 -18.06 TORY TORY -34.4 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber CLEETHORPES 21.74 -21.74 -18.52 TORY TORY -19.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales CLWYD SOUTH 11.62 11.62 -5.35 TORY LABOUR TORY -12.1 TORY TORY SAME
Wales CLWYD WEST 8.45 -8.45 -4.62 TORY TORY -22.8 TORY SAME
COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland BELLSHILL (W) 3.52 3.52 -32.77 SNP LABOUR SNP -19.3 SNP SNP SAME
Eastern COLCHESTER 10.60 -10.60 -10.08 TORY TORY -16.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber COLNE VALLEY 1.51 1.51 -3.19 TORY LABOUR TORY -4 TORY TORY SAME
North West CONGLETON 22.44 -22.44 -16.29 TORY TORY -21.2 TORY SAME
North COPELAND 3.95 -3.95 -5.84 TORY TORY -10.2 TORY SAME
East Midlands CORBY 4.48 -4.48 -16.3 TORY TORY -9.3 TORY SAME
West Midlands COVENTRY NORTH EAST 33.50 33.50 1.63 LABOUR LABOUR 9.5 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands COVENTRY NORTH WEST 17.21 17.21 -7.2 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.2 TORY TORY SAME
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LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands COVENTRY SOUTH 16.91 16.91 -4.47 TORY LABOUR TORY -0.9 TORY TORY SAME
South East CRAWLEY 4.89 -4.89 -11.77 TORY TORY -14.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West CREWE & NANTWICH 0.09 0.09 -14.56 TORY LABOUR TORY -6.9 TORY TORY SAME
London CROYDON CENTRAL 9.90 9.90 -2.24 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -4.4 TORY TORY TORY
London CROYDON NORTH 54.28 54.28 5.48 LABOUR LABOUR 23.5 LABOUR SAME
London CROYDON SOUTH 18.62 -18.62 -14.43 TORY TORY -22.8 TORY SAME
CUMBERNAULD, KILSYTH &
Scotland KIRKINTILLOCH EAST (W) 9.73 -9.73 -16.99 SNP SNP -33.2 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO BREXIT-
Wales CYNON VALLEY 41.63 41.63 -11.27 BREXIT LABOUR BREXIT 4.5 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
London DAGENHAM & RAINHAM 10.15 10.15 -11.83 TORY LABOUR TORY -7.2 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North DARLINGTON 7.32 7.32 -4.99 TORY LABOUR TORY -2 TORY TORY SAME
South East DARTFORD 24.32 -24.32 -15.62 TORY TORY -27.9 TORY SAME
East Midlands DAVENTRY 39.05 -39.05 -21.06 TORY TORY -31 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales DELYN 10.76 10.76 18.07 LABOUR LABOUR -13.3 TORY TORY TORY
North West DENTON & REDDISH 35.55 35.55 2.38 LABOUR LABOUR 12.3 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands DERBY NORTH 4.14 4.14 -0.67 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.7 TORY TORY SAME
East Midlands DERBY SOUTH 24.83 24.83 1.2 LABOUR LABOUR 12.2 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands DERBYSHIRE DALES 28.90 -28.90 -22.69 TORY TORY -25.3 TORY SAME
South West DEVIZES 41.78 -41.78 -21.92 TORY TORY -35.6 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber DEWSBURY 5.87 5.87 -6.07 TORY LABOUR TORY 1.4 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber DON VALLEY 11.24 11.24 -8.3 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.4 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber DONCASTER CENTRAL 23.55 23.55 -0.58 TORY LABOUR TORY 6.9 LABOUR LABOUR
Yorkshire and Humber DONCASTER NORTH 33.14 33.14 4.44 LABOUR LABOUR 9.9 LABOUR SAME
South East DOVER 12.39 -12.39 -14.17 TORY TORY -21.6 TORY SAME
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LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands DUDLEY NORTH 0.06 0.06 -9.53 TORY LABOUR TORY -12.9 TORY TORY SAME
West Midlands DUDLEY SOUTH 20.21 -20.21 -9.79 TORY TORY -23.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London DULWICH & WEST NORWOOD 50.15 50.15 -5.5 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 9.3 LABOUR LABOUR
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY (W) 10.94 -22.42 -21.34 SNP TORY SNP -34.8 SNP SNP SAME
DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & TORY TO
Scotland TWEEDDALE (W) 19.28 -32.83 -31.32 SNP TORY SNP -36.6 TORY SNP-TORY
Scotland DUNDEE EAST (W) 15.48 -16.81 -23.19 SNP SNP -40.2 SNP SAME
Scotland DUNDEE WEST (W) 13.60 -13.60 -26.2 SNP SNP -36.4 SNP SAME
Scotland DUNFERMLINE & WEST FIFE (W) 1.65 -1.65 -17.76 SNP SNP -24.9 SNP SAME
PLAID TO BREXIT-
Wales DWYFOR MEIRIONNYDD 15.98 -24.43 -9.63 BREXIT PLAID BREXIT -24.7 PLAID PLAID
London EALING CENTRAL & ACTON 24.95 24.95 2.78 LABOUR LABOUR 6.9 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
London EALING NORTH 37.50 37.50 -1.61 TORY LABOUR TORY 13.8 LABOUR LABOUR
London EALING, SOUTHALL 48.93 48.93 10.24 LABOUR LABOUR 22.3 LABOUR SAME
North EASINGTON 40.95 40.95 11.42 LABOUR LABOUR 16.1 LABOUR SAME
South West EAST DEVON 13.31 -37.18 -19.76 TORY TORY -43.8 TORY SAME
LIBDEM TO
Scotland EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE (W) 10.31 -26.05 -19.01 SNP LIBDEM SNP -42.8 LIBDEM SNP-SNP
London EAST HAM 70.42 70.42 17.97 LABOUR LABOUR 42.1 LABOUR SAME
South East EAST HAMPSHIRE 46.66 -46.66 -21.48 TORY TORY -36.6 TORY SAME
EAST KILBRIDE, STRATHAVEN &
Scotland LESMAHAGOW (W) 7.15 -7.15 -20.99 SNP SNP -30.8 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland EAST LOTHIAN (W) 5.52 5.52 -13.62 SNP LABOUR SNP -17.8 SNP SNP SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland EAST RENFREWSHIRE (W) 8.77 -13.31 -21.4 SNP TORY SNP -27.8 SNP SNP SAME
South East EAST SURREY 40.39 -40.39 -16.21 TORY TORY -36.5 TORY SAME
South East EAST WORTHING & SHOREHAM 9.61 -9.61 -15.81 TORY TORY -19.3 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber EAST YORKSHIRE 27.81 -27.81 -9.95 TORY TORY -23.7 TORY SAME
LIBDEM TO TORY-
South East EASTBOURNE 2.80 -38.75 -17.92 TORY LIBDEM TORY -42.3 LIBDEM LIBDEM
p33
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TORY TO TORY-
South East EASTLEIGH 24.75 -30.44 -23 TORY TORY -27.8 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
North West EDDISBURY 23.27 -23.27 -12.94 TORY TORY -21.4 TORY SAME
Scotland EDINBURGH EAST (W) 7.87 -7.87 -6.3 SNP SNP -31 SNP SAME
Scotland EDINBURGH NORTH & LEITH (W) 2.87 -2.87 -14.44 SNP SNP -26.1 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO SNP-
Scotland EDINBURGH SOUTH (W) 32.43 32.43 -12.33 SNP LABOUR SNP 9.1 LABOUR LABOUR
Scotland EDINBURGH SOUTH WEST (W) 2.22 -8.83 -28.03 SNP SNP -32.1 SNP SAME
LIBDEM TO
Scotland EDINBURGH WEST (W) 5.66 -19.38 -29.44 SNP LIBDEM SNP -37.2 LIBDEM SNP-SNP
London EDMONTON 48.34 48.34 14.76 LABOUR LABOUR 24 LABOUR SAME
North West ELLESMERE PORT & NESTON 22.36 22.36 3.16 LABOUR LABOUR 5.5 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber ELMET & ROTHWELL 16.47 -16.47 -7.53 TORY TORY -17.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
London ELTHAM 13.64 13.64 2.74 LABOUR LABOUR -3.4 TORY TORY TORY
LABOUR TO TORY-
London ENFIELD NORTH 21.10 21.10 -3.91 TORY LABOUR TORY 4 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
London ENFIELD SOUTHGATE 9.01 9.01 -8.65 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.2 TORY TORY SAME
Eastern EPPING FOREST 35.93 -35.93 -22.08 TORY TORY -33.8 TORY SAME
South East EPSOM & EWELL 34.55 -34.55 -17.78 TORY TORY -33 TORY SAME
East Midlands EREWASH 9.11 -9.11 -5.29 TORY TORY -11 TORY SAME
London ERITH & THAMESMEAD 22.52 22.52 0.05 LABOUR LABOUR 2.3 LABOUR SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South East ESHER & WALTON 38.93 -38.93 -25.52 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -33.1 TORY TORY
South West EXETER 29.08 29.08 5.31 LABOUR LABOUR 3.8 LABOUR SAME
Scotland FALKIRK (W) 9.15 -9.15 -22.45 SNP SNP -32.8 SNP SAME
South East FAREHAM 37.81 -37.81 -21.23 TORY TORY -34.9 TORY SAME
South East FAVERSHAM & MID KENT 35.00 -35.00 -19.2 TORY TORY -33 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
London FELTHAM & HESTON 29.42 29.42 -3.69 TORY LABOUR TORY 8.9 LABOUR LABOUR
South West FILTON & BRADLEY STOKE 8.26 -8.26 -11.27 TORY TORY -18.1 TORY SAME
London FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN 3.16 -3.16 -16.84 TORY TORY -10.3 TORY SAME
p34
Maj17 D-MRP-
South East FOLKESTONE & HYTHE 26.18 -26.18 -18.34 TORY TORY -29.4 TORY SAME
South West FOREST OF DEAN 18.36 -18.36 -17.59 TORY TORY -26 TORY SAME
North West FYLDE 25.41 -25.41 -20.03 TORY TORY -23.3 TORY SAME
East Midlands GAINSBOROUGH 33.10 -33.10 -19.86 TORY TORY -26.4 TORY SAME
North West GARSTON & HALEWOOD 60.07 60.07 11.76 LABOUR LABOUR 28.2 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North GATESHEAD 41.21 41.21 -0.28 TORY LABOUR TORY 16.6 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands GEDLING 9.08 9.08 -8.58 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.3 TORY TORY SAME
South East GILLINGHAM & RAINHAM 19.30 -19.30 -12.87 TORY TORY -23.7 TORY SAME
Scotland GLASGOW CENTRAL (W) 6.30 -6.30 -14.98 SNP SNP -28.9 SNP SAME
Scotland GLASGOW EAST (W) 0.21 -0.21 -13.1 SNP SNP -23.7 SNP SAME
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH (W) 3.17 -3.17 -19.13 SNP SNP -25.8 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH EAST (W) 0.76 0.76 -5.01 SNP LABOUR SNP -21.7 SNP SNP SAME
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH WEST (W) 6.59 -6.59 -31.75 SNP SNP -29.7 SNP SAME
Scotland GLASGOW SOUTH (W) 4.55 -4.55 -25.14 SNP SNP -27.7 SNP SAME
Scotland GLASGOW SOUTH WEST (W) 0.17 -0.17 -21.97 SNP SNP -23.3 SNP SAME
Scotland GLENROTHES (W) 8.09 -8.09 -13.96 SNP SNP -31.4 SNP SAME
South West GLOUCESTER 10.21 -10.21 -15.06 TORY TORY -18.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland GORDON (W) 4.86 -28.91 -20.6 SNP TORY SNP -38.9 SNP SNP SAME
South East GOSPORT 34.78 -34.78 -18.84 TORY TORY -33.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales GOWER 7.17 7.17 3.84 LABOUR LABOUR -15 TORY TORY TORY
East Midlands GRANTHAM & STAMFORD 35.51 -35.51 -21.8 TORY TORY -27.9 TORY SAME
South East GRAVESHAM 19.08 -19.08 -14.62 TORY TORY -24.8 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber GREAT GRIMSBY 7.22 7.22 -4.42 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.3 TORY TORY SAME
Eastern GREAT YARMOUTH 18.06 -18.06 -10.25 TORY TORY -22.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London GREENWICH & WOOLWICH 39.01 39.01 -5.72 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 12.5 LABOUR LABOUR
p35
Maj17 D-MRP-
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South East GUILDFORD 30.70 -35.58 -24.39 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -29.3 TORY TORY
HACKNEY NORTH & STOKE
London NEWINGTON 62.42 62.42 17.58 LABOUR LABOUR 19.4 LABOUR SAME
London HACKNEY SOUTH & SHOREDITCH 68.52 68.52 11.65 LABOUR LABOUR 24.2 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS 11.84 -11.84 -9.12 TORY TORY -19.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber HALIFAX 11.14 11.14 -4.23 TORY LABOUR TORY 3.3 LABOUR LABOUR
Yorkshire and Humber HALTEMPRICE & HOWDEN 29.95 -29.95 -22.32 TORY TORY -25.3 TORY SAME
North West HALTON 51.30 51.30 13.21 LABOUR LABOUR 21.5 LABOUR SAME
London HAMMERSMITH 35.69 35.69 2.59 LABOUR LABOUR 14.2 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN 26.64 26.64 -10.47 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 6.8 LABOUR LABOUR
East Midlands HARBOROUGH 21.58 -21.58 -18.2 TORY TORY -19.9 TORY SAME
Eastern HARLOW 15.68 -15.68 -13.85 TORY TORY -21.4 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber HARROGATE & KNARESBOROUGH 32.02 -35.39 -21.25 TORY TORY -26.5 TORY SAME
London HARROW EAST 3.46 -3.46 -5.52 TORY TORY -12.2 TORY SAME
London HARROW WEST 26.44 26.44 0.75 LABOUR LABOUR 6 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North HARTLEPOOL 18.29 18.29 -3.56 TORY LABOUR TORY 2.5 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern HARWICH & NORTH ESSEX 28.07 -28.07 -22.63 TORY TORY -29.2 TORY SAME
South East HASTINGS & RYE 0.63 -0.63 -3.48 TORY TORY -13.1 TORY SAME
South East HAVANT 34.45 -34.45 -21.05 TORY TORY -32.2 TORY SAME
London HAYES & HARLINGTON 37.90 37.90 1.69 LABOUR LABOUR 13.8 LABOUR SAME
TORY TO TORY-
North West HAZEL GROVE 12.49 -24.95 -14.47 TORY TORY -28.3 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
Eastern HEMEL HEMPSTEAD 18.07 -18.07 -18.02 TORY TORY -22.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber HEMSWORTH 22.14 22.14 -3 TORY LABOUR TORY 4.6 LABOUR LABOUR
London HENDON 2.05 -2.05 -20.3 TORY TORY -8.7 TORY SAME
South East HENLEY 39.04 -39.04 -24.16 TORY TORY -33.8 TORY SAME
HEREFORD & SOUTH
West Midlands HEREFORDSHIRE 29.74 -29.74 -14.03 TORY TORY -31.7 TORY SAME
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Maj17 D-MRP-
Eastern HERTFORD & STORTFORD 31.73 -31.73 -22.16 TORY TORY -30.4 TORY SAME
Eastern HERTSMERE 32.44 -32.44 -24.04 TORY TORY -30.8 TORY SAME
North HEXHAM 19.98 -19.98 -13.71 TORY TORY -19.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West HEYWOOD & MIDDLETON 15.28 15.28 -11.03 TORY LABOUR TORY 1.3 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands HIGH PEAK 4.31 4.31 -8.78 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.3 TORY TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
Eastern HITCHIN & HARPENDEN 20.47 -20.47 -14.44 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -24.2 TORY TORY
London HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS 51.71 51.71 3.76 LABOUR LABOUR 13.8 LABOUR SAME
London HORNCHURCH & UPMINSTER 31.62 -31.62 -19.37 TORY TORY -33.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
London HORNSEY & WOOD GREEN 49.34 49.34 1.15 LABOUR LABOUR -4 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
South East HORSHAM 37.89 -37.89 -25.3 TORY TORY -33.5 TORY SAME
HOUGHTON & SUNDERLAND
North SOUTH 29.75 29.75 4.81 LABOUR LABOUR 9 LABOUR SAME
South East HOVE 32.57 32.57 5.19 LABOUR LABOUR 6.4 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber HUDDERSFIELD 27.39 27.39 0.15 LABOUR LABOUR 13.2 LABOUR SAME
Eastern HUNTINGDON 24.24 -24.24 -24.03 TORY TORY -26 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West HYNDBURN 12.86 12.86 -3 TORY LABOUR TORY 2.5 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO TORY-
London ILFORD NORTH 18.21 18.21 -7.48 TORY LABOUR TORY 0.7 LABOUR LABOUR
London ILFORD SOUTH 54.89 54.89 13.29 LABOUR LABOUR 29.7 LABOUR SAME
Scotland INVERCLYDE (W) 0.98 -0.98 -36.3 SNP SNP -24.3 SNP SAME
INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH &
Scotland STRATHSPEY (W) 9.33 -23.65 -20.59 SNP SNP -43 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Eastern IPSWICH 1.63 1.63 -4.02 TORY LABOUR TORY -9.6 TORY TORY SAME
South East ISLE OF WIGHT 28.29 -28.29 -20.59 TORY TORY -28.3 TORY SAME
London ISLINGTON NORTH 60.47 60.47 17.05 LABOUR LABOUR 13.6 LABOUR SAME
London ISLINGTON SOUTH & FINSBURY 42.17 42.17 15.71 LABOUR LABOUR 3.4 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales ISLWYN 31.62 31.62 2.64 LABOUR LABOUR -1 TORY TORY TORY
p37
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North JARROW 40.13 40.13 12.44 LABOUR LABOUR 14.2 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber KEIGHLEY 0.46 0.46 -7.27 TORY LABOUR TORY -3.6 TORY TORY SAME
West Midlands KENILWORTH & SOUTHAM 35.22 -35.22 -17.27 TORY TORY -33.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
London KENSINGTON 0.05 0.05 -16.53 TORY LABOUR TORY -7.6 TORY TORY SAME
East Midlands KETTERING 21.38 -21.38 -19.02 TORY TORY -18.4 TORY SAME
Scotland KILMARNOCK & LOUDOUN (W) 13.48 -13.48 -29.45 SNP SNP -36.8 SNP SAME
London KINGSTON & SURBITON 6.63 -29.93 -29.91 LIBDEM LIBDEM -44.3 LIBDEM SAME
Yorkshire and Humber KINGSTON UPON HULL EAST 28.37 28.37 4.55 LABOUR LABOUR 8.6 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber KINGSTON UPON HULL NORTH 38.58 38.58 7.07 LABOUR LABOUR 15.6 LABOUR SAME
KINGSTON UPON HULL WEST &
Yorkshire and Humber HESSLE 23.22 23.22 3.98 LABOUR LABOUR 8 LABOUR SAME
South West KINGSWOOD 15.39 -15.39 -8.66 TORY TORY -22.7 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH (W) 0.56 0.56 -11.5 SNP LABOUR SNP -23.1 SNP SNP SAME
North West KNOWSLEY 76.08 76.08 22.65 LABOUR LABOUR 36.1 LABOUR SAME
Scotland LANARK & HAMILTON EAST (W) 0.53 -0.71 -15.72 SNP SNP -24.3 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD 14.48 14.48 -0.9 TORY LABOUR TORY 1.9 LABOUR LABOUR
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS CENTRAL 49.71 49.71 14.49 LABOUR LABOUR 24.9 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS EAST 30.77 30.77 5.55 LABOUR LABOUR 14.1 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS NORTH EAST 32.06 32.06 -0.22 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 15.4 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS NORTH WEST 9.13 9.13 -11.17 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -21.6 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS WEST 37.81 37.81 5.08 LABOUR LABOUR 15.8 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands LEICESTER EAST 42.78 42.78 0.15 LABOUR LABOUR 25.9 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands LEICESTER SOUTH 51.98 51.98 9.84 LABOUR LABOUR 32.8 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands LEICESTER WEST 29.48 29.48 1.88 LABOUR LABOUR 14 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West LEIGH 20.38 20.38 -9.86 TORY LABOUR TORY 3.2 LABOUR LABOUR
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TORY TO TORY TO
South East LEWES 10.16 -38.31 -22.53 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -41.8 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London LEWISHAM DEPTFORD 63.32 63.32 -3.55 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 18.6 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London LEWISHAM EAST 44.94 44.94 -7.4 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 15.2 LABOUR LABOUR
London LEWISHAM WEST & PENGE 43.54 43.54 1.28 LABOUR LABOUR 11.4 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
London LEYTON & WANSTEAD 48.96 48.96 -3.82 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 22.3 LABOUR LABOUR
West Midlands LICHFIELD 34.72 -34.72 -27.46 TORY TORY -33.6 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
East Midlands LINCOLN 3.16 3.16 -9.27 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.7 TORY TORY SAME
Scotland LINLITHGOW & EAST FALKIRK (W) 5.20 -5.20 -24.36 SNP SNP -28.5 SNP SAME
North West LIVERPOOL RIVERSIDE 74.86 74.86 26.78 LABOUR LABOUR 32 LABOUR SAME
North West LIVERPOOL WALTON 77.14 77.14 20.35 LABOUR LABOUR 38.9 LABOUR SAME
North West LIVERPOOL WAVERTREE 67.52 67.52 23.07 LABOUR LABOUR 27.6 LABOUR SAME
North West LIVERPOOL WEST DERBY 72.86 72.86 27.52 LABOUR LABOUR 38 LABOUR SAME
Scotland LIVINGSTON (W) 7.39 -7.39 -22.79 SNP SNP -30.7 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales LLANELLI 29.81 29.81 -12.85 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.9 TORY TORY SAME
East Midlands LOUGHBOROUGH 7.88 -7.88 -8.08 TORY TORY -8.6 TORY SAME
East Midlands LOUTH & HORNCASTLE 37.22 -37.22 -23.09 TORY TORY -29 TORY SAME
West Midlands LUDLOW 38.60 -38.60 -17.36 TORY TORY -34.6 TORY SAME
Eastern LUTON NORTH 30.81 30.81 4.31 LABOUR LABOUR 10.6 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Eastern LUTON SOUTH 30.18 30.18 -6.57 TORY LABOUR TORY 12 LABOUR LABOUR
North West MACCLESFIELD 15.85 -15.85 -13.02 TORY TORY -16.8 TORY SAME
South East MAIDENHEAD 45.43 -45.43 -23.27 TORY TORY -37.3 TORY SAME
South East MAIDSTONE & THE WEALD 34.27 -34.27 -20.86 TORY TORY -31.1 TORY SAME
North West MAKERFIELD 28.85 28.85 3.12 LABOUR LABOUR 8 LABOUR SAME
Eastern MALDON 46.67 -46.67 -24.59 TORY TORY -39.1 TORY SAME
North West MANCHESTER CENTRAL 63.24 63.24 13.94 LABOUR LABOUR 31.4 LABOUR SAME
p39
Maj17 D-MRP-
North West MANCHESTER GORTON 69.05 69.05 8.4 LABOUR LABOUR 39.6 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LIBDEM-
North West MANCHESTER WITHINGTON 55.73 55.73 -5.37 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM 13.1 LABOUR LABOUR
East Midlands MANSFIELD 2.11 -2.11 -11.58 TORY TORY -8.5 TORY SAME
South East MEON VALLEY 47.41 -47.41 -25.22 TORY TORY -37.9 TORY SAME
West Midlands MERIDEN 35.13 -35.13 -21.39 TORY TORY -32.5 TORY SAME
Wales MERTHYR TYDFIL & RHYMNEY 48.69 48.69 11.93 LABOUR LABOUR 7.4 LABOUR SAME
Eastern MID BEDFORDSHIRE 33.23 -33.23 -23.19 TORY TORY -32.2 TORY SAME
East Midlands MID DERBYSHIRE 23.06 -23.06 -16.72 TORY TORY -21 TORY SAME
South West MID DORSET & NORTH POOLE 31.79 -45.93 -27.08 TORY TORY -35.1 TORY SAME
Eastern MID NORFOLK 28.90 -28.90 -17.66 TORY TORY -29.8 TORY SAME
South East MID SUSSEX 31.92 -31.92 -24.35 TORY TORY -30.8 TORY SAME
West Midlands MID WORCESTERSHIRE 42.34 -42.34 -21.5 TORY TORY -36.8 TORY SAME
North MIDDLESBROUGH 38.93 38.93 7.51 LABOUR LABOUR 18.1 LABOUR SAME
MIDDLESBROUGH SOUTH & EAST TORY TO LABOUR-
North CLEVELAND 2.14 -2.14 0.23 LABOUR TORY LABOUR -8.2 TORY TORY
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland MIDLOTHIAN (W) 1.95 1.95 -19.3 SNP LABOUR SNP -21.3 SNP SNP SAME
South East MILTON KEYNES NORTH 3.09 -3.09 -14.88 TORY TORY -13.4 TORY SAME
South East MILTON KEYNES SOUTH 2.67 -2.67 -9.41 TORY TORY -13 TORY SAME
London MITCHAM & MORDEN 44.42 44.42 6.14 LABOUR LABOUR 16.9 LABOUR SAME
South East MOLE VALLEY 42.55 -48.00 -25.84 TORY TORY -36.9 TORY SAME
Wales MONMOUTH 16.50 -16.50 -17.8 TORY TORY -29.4 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
Wales MONTGOMERYSHIRE 26.61 -35.92 -22.17 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -33 TORY TORY
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland MORAY (W) 8.74 -36.61 -30.03 SNP TORY SNP -41.8 SNP SNP SAME
North West MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE 3.06 -3.06 -9.25 TORY TORY -8.8 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber MORLEY & OUTWOOD 4.02 -4.02 -5.74 TORY TORY -8.9 TORY SAME
Scotland MOTHERWELL & WISHAW (W) 0.76 -0.76 -24.14 SNP SNP -24.4 SNP SAME
Scotland NA H-EILEANAN AN IAR (W) 6.80 -6.80 -17.56 SNP SNP -29.6 SNP SAME
p40
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LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales NEATH 32.99 32.99 -17.55 TORY LABOUR TORY -0.4 TORY TORY SAME
South East NEW FOREST EAST 42.82 -42.82 -26.21 TORY TORY -35.7 TORY SAME
South East NEW FOREST WEST 47.21 -47.21 -31.74 TORY TORY -39.2 TORY SAME
East Midlands NEWARK 32.97 -32.97 -16.87 TORY TORY -26.8 TORY SAME
South East NEWBURY 40.07 -47.34 -20.44 TORY TORY -35 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME 0.07 0.07 -9.32 TORY LABOUR TORY -13.4 TORY TORY SAME
North NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE CENTRAL 40.27 40.27 5.55 LABOUR LABOUR 20.9 LABOUR SAME
North NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE EAST 46.26 46.26 8.62 LABOUR LABOUR 17.3 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE NORTH 21.43 21.43 -1.6 TORY LABOUR TORY 4.9 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales NEWPORT EAST 21.74 21.74 -6.14 TORY LABOUR TORY -6.3 TORY TORY SAME
Wales NEWPORT WEST 13.03 13.03 -10.14 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -11.1 TORY TORY TORY
South West NEWTON ABBOT 33.23 -33.23 -19.39 TORY TORY -31.1 TORY SAME
NORMANTON, PONTEFRACT &
Yorkshire and Humber CASTLEFORD 29.47 29.47 4.13 LABOUR LABOUR 8.3 LABOUR SAME
Scotland NORTH AYRSHIRE & ARRAN (W) 7.66 -11.41 -29.87 SNP SNP -34.7 SNP SAME
TORY TO TORY-
South West NORTH CORNWALL 14.13 -38.64 -21.95 TORY TORY -34.6 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
TORY TO TORY-
South West NORTH DEVON 7.78 -33.13 -20.8 TORY TORY -36 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
South West NORTH DORSET 46.26 -46.26 -25.77 TORY TORY -37.9 TORY SAME
North NORTH DURHAM 29.89 29.89 2.22 LABOUR LABOUR 8.9 LABOUR SAME
Eastern NORTH EAST BEDFORDSHIRE 32.49 -32.49 -24.01 TORY TORY -31.9 TORY SAME
Eastern NORTH EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE 39.92 -39.92 -22.37 TORY TORY -34.4 TORY SAME
East Midlands NORTH EAST DERBYSHIRE 5.68 -5.68 -10.39 TORY TORY -11.6 TORY SAME
LIBDEM-
Scotland NORTH EAST FIFE (W) 0.00 -23.23 -19.33 LIBDEM SNP -35.8 SNP SNP
South East NORTH EAST HAMPSHIRE 48.19 -48.19 -26.03 TORY TORY -38.1 TORY SAME
Eastern NORTH EAST HERTFORDSHIRE 30.29 -30.29 -20.04 TORY TORY -29.8 TORY SAME
p41
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South West NORTH EAST SOMERSET 18.94 -18.94 -16.62 TORY TORY -25.7 TORY SAME
West Midlands NORTH HEREFORDSHIRE 43.05 -43.05 -20 TORY TORY -35.4 TORY SAME
LIBDEM TO TORY-
Eastern NORTH NORFOLK 6.73 -38.48 -18.77 TORY LIBDEM TORY -42.8 LIBDEM LIBDEM
West Midlands NORTH SHROPSHIRE 29.42 -29.42 -16.11 TORY TORY -29.7 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South West NORTH SOMERSET 27.59 -27.59 -17.91 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -31.3 TORY TORY
South West NORTH SWINDON 15.18 -15.18 -14.01 TORY TORY -21.7 TORY SAME
South East NORTH THANET 22.22 -22.22 -22.58 TORY TORY -26.7 TORY SAME
North NORTH TYNESIDE 37.16 37.16 9.67 LABOUR LABOUR 13.6 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands NORTH WARWICKSHIRE 18.04 -18.04 -16.12 TORY TORY -23.8 TORY SAME
Eastern NORTH WEST CAMBRIDGESHIRE 28.14 -28.14 -17.18 TORY TORY -28.3 TORY SAME
North NORTH WEST DURHAM 18.35 18.35 3.89 LABOUR LABOUR 2.3 LABOUR SAME
South East NORTH WEST HAMPSHIRE 38.59 -38.59 -15.89 TORY TORY -34.8 TORY SAME
East Midlands NORTH WEST LEICESTERSHIRE 24.81 -24.81 -15.31 TORY TORY -21.6 TORY SAME
Eastern NORTH WEST NORFOLK 28.25 -28.25 -13.3 TORY TORY -29.3 TORY SAME
South West NORTH WILTSHIRE 42.60 -42.82 -28.99 TORY TORY -35.2 TORY SAME
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON NORTH 2.00 -2.00 -7.67 TORY TORY -6.5 TORY SAME
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON SOUTH 2.82 -2.82 -15.95 TORY TORY -6.2 TORY SAME
Eastern NORWICH NORTH 1.10 -1.10 -8.56 TORY TORY -12.2 TORY SAME
Eastern NORWICH SOUTH 30.37 30.37 5.54 LABOUR LABOUR 4.2 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands NOTTINGHAM EAST 49.81 49.81 5.73 LABOUR LABOUR 28.1 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands NOTTINGHAM NORTH 29.12 29.12 1.94 LABOUR LABOUR 12.5 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands NOTTINGHAM SOUTH 31.50 31.50 2.96 LABOUR LABOUR 16.1 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands NUNEATON 10.29 -10.29 -7.09 TORY TORY -18.5 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland OCHIL & SOUTH PERTHSHIRE (W) 6.20 -21.46 -34.73 SNP TORY SNP -38.6 SNP SNP SAME
Wales OGMORE 37.28 37.28 9.79 LABOUR LABOUR 2.5 LABOUR SAME
London OLD BEXLEY & SIDCUP 32.19 -32.19 -20.25 TORY TORY -32.5 TORY SAME
p42
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LABOUR TO TORY-
North West OLDHAM EAST & SADDLEWORTH 17.39 17.39 -3.32 TORY LABOUR TORY 5.5 LABOUR LABOUR
North West OLDHAM WEST & ROYTON 37.56 37.56 5.43 LABOUR LABOUR 20.2 LABOUR SAME
LIBDEM TO
Scotland ORKNEY & SHETLAND (W) 19.60 -37.15 -13.24 SNP LIBDEM SNP -50.3 LIBDEM SNP-SNP
London ORPINGTON 38.57 -38.57 -21.56 TORY TORY -35.2 TORY SAME
South East OXFORD EAST 43.20 43.20 4.29 LABOUR LABOUR 4.6 LABOUR SAME
South East OXFORD WEST & ABINGDON 1.36 -31.13 -34.39 LIBDEM LIBDEM -45.6 LIBDEM SAME
PAISLEY & RENFREWSHIRE NORTH
Scotland (W) 5.61 -5.61 -13.01 SNP SNP -28.9 SNP SAME
PAISLEY & RENFREWSHIRE SOUTH
Scotland (W) 6.09 -6.09 -1.61 SNP SNP -29.3 SNP SAME
North West PENDLE 2.85 -2.85 -6.94 TORY TORY -4.4 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber PENISTONE & STOCKSBRIDGE 2.66 2.66 -8.15 TORY LABOUR TORY -7.6 TORY TORY SAME
North PENRITH & THE BORDER 34.24 -34.24 -20.41 TORY TORY -27.1 TORY SAME
Scotland PERTH & NORTH PERTHSHIRE (W) 0.04 -31.94 -26.03 SNP SNP -45.3 SNP SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Eastern PETERBOROUGH 1.27 1.27 -12.55 TORY LABOUR TORY -8.6 TORY TORY SAME
South West PLYMOUTH MOOR VIEW 11.05 -11.05 -10.86 TORY TORY -20.1 TORY SAME
PLYMOUTH SUTTON & LABOUR TO LABOUR-
South West DEVONPORT 13.29 13.29 9.25 LABOUR LABOUR -4.6 TORY TORY TORY
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales PONTYPRIDD 28.70 28.70 -10.32 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.8 TORY TORY SAME
South West POOLE 28.50 -28.50 -22.59 TORY TORY -30 TORY SAME
London POPLAR & LIMEHOUSE 47.12 47.12 4.96 LABOUR LABOUR 27.7 LABOUR SAME
South East PORTSMOUTH NORTH 21.11 -21.11 -16.83 TORY TORY -24.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
South East PORTSMOUTH SOUTH 3.49 3.49 -8.55 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -13.4 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
Wales PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE 0.74 -0.74 -2.39 TORY TORY -19.1 TORY SAME
North West PRESTON 44.17 44.17 9.52 LABOUR LABOUR 22.6 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber PUDSEY 0.61 -0.61 -1.94 TORY TORY -6.6 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
London PUTNEY 3.31 -3.31 -8.38 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -9.5 TORY TORY
p43
Maj17 D-MRP-
Eastern RAYLEIGH & WICKFORD 42.39 -42.39 -23.58 TORY TORY -37.8 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
South East READING EAST 6.79 6.79 -6.55 TORY LABOUR TORY -6.7 TORY TORY SAME
South East READING WEST 5.56 -5.56 -10.51 TORY TORY -14.8 TORY SAME
North REDCAR 22.29 22.29 2.04 LABOUR LABOUR 3.6 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands REDDITCH 16.29 -16.29 -12.01 TORY TORY -22.3 TORY SAME
South East REIGATE 32.73 -32.73 -18.67 TORY TORY -31.5 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Wales RHONDDA 41.74 41.74 -1.16 TORY LABOUR TORY 11.2 LABOUR LABOUR
North West RIBBLE VALLEY 23.91 -23.91 -7.83 TORY TORY -22.6 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber RICHMOND (YORKS) 40.53 -40.53 -26.42 TORY TORY -31.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
London RICHMOND PARK 0.07 -36.03 -34.24 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -48.6 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
North West ROCHDALE 29.61 29.61 3.8 LABOUR LABOUR 16.7 LABOUR SAME
South East ROCHESTER & STROOD 18.32 -18.32 -7.98 TORY TORY -24 TORY SAME
Eastern ROCHFORD & SOUTHEND EAST 11.74 -11.74 -14.75 TORY TORY -18.9 TORY SAME
London ROMFORD 27.59 -27.59 -18.91 TORY TORY -29.7 TORY SAME
ROMSEY & SOUTHAMPTON
South East NORTH 36.00 -38.01 -21.95 TORY TORY -31.3 TORY SAME
Scotland ROSS, SKYE & LOCHABER (W) 15.39 -28.05 -20.58 SNP SNP -43.3 SNP SAME
North West ROSSENDALE & DARWEN 6.41 -6.41 -14.37 TORY TORY -10.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber ROTHER VALLEY 7.84 7.84 -8.69 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.2 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
Yorkshire and Humber ROTHERHAM 30.03 30.03 -1.93 TORY LABOUR TORY 11.6 LABOUR LABOUR
West Midlands RUGBY 16.00 -16.00 -18.67 TORY TORY -22.4 TORY SAME
London RUISLIP NORTHWOOD & PINNER 26.19 -26.19 -21.74 TORY TORY -28.2 TORY SAME
South East RUNNYMEDE & WEYBRIDGE 34.97 -34.97 -18.2 TORY TORY -33.2 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
East Midlands RUSHCLIFFE 13.74 -13.74 -21.34 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -15.2 TORY TORY
RUTHERGLEN & HAMILTON WEST LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Scotland (W) 0.52 0.52 -19.66 SNP LABOUR SNP -22.9 SNP SNP SAME
East Midlands RUTLAND & MELTON 40.13 -40.13 -28.82 TORY TORY -31.2 TORY SAME
p44
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Eastern SAFFRON WALDEN 40.99 -40.99 -26.79 TORY TORY -34.5 TORY SAME
North West SALFORD & ECCLES 40.18 40.18 5.87 LABOUR LABOUR 17 LABOUR SAME
South West SALISBURY 32.51 -32.51 -25.22 TORY TORY -32.2 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SCARBOROUGH & WHITBY 6.81 -6.81 -8.83 TORY TORY -11.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber SCUNTHORPE 8.53 8.53 -4.37 TORY LABOUR TORY -1.2 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North SEDGEFIELD 14.57 14.57 -5.16 TORY LABOUR TORY 0.7 LABOUR LABOUR
North West SEFTON CENTRAL 29.99 29.99 3.63 LABOUR LABOUR 8.6 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SELBY & AINSTY 24.56 -24.56 -14.58 TORY TORY -22.6 TORY SAME
South East SEVENOAKS 42.79 -42.79 -18.96 TORY TORY -36.9 TORY SAME
SHEFFIELD BRIGHTSIDE &
Yorkshire and Humber HILLSBOROUGH 45.72 45.72 8.21 LABOUR LABOUR 23.2 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SHEFFIELD CENTRAL 57.96 57.96 12.8 LABOUR LABOUR 19.7 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber SHEFFIELD HALLAM 3.73 3.73 -9.2 LIBDEM LABOUR LIBDEM -29.7 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SHEFFIELD HEELEY 31.27 31.27 7.03 LABOUR LABOUR 11.3 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SHEFFIELD SOUTH EAST 27.06 27.06 0.29 LABOUR LABOUR 9.9 LABOUR SAME
East Midlands SHERWOOD 9.74 -9.74 -14.23 TORY TORY -12.8 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SHIPLEY 8.77 -8.77 -7.24 TORY TORY -11.2 TORY SAME
West Midlands SHREWSBURY & ATCHAM 11.39 -11.39 -3.05 TORY TORY -19.9 TORY SAME
South East SITTINGBOURNE & SHEPPEY 29.60 -29.60 -15.68 TORY TORY -29.6 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber SKIPTON & RIPON 34.38 -34.38 -19.21 TORY TORY -28.1 TORY SAME
East Midlands SLEAFORD & NORTH HYKEHAM 38.36 -38.36 -34.75 TORY TORY -30.6 TORY SAME
South East SLOUGH 31.31 31.31 6.66 LABOUR LABOUR 11.5 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands SOLIHULL 36.25 -36.25 -20.92 TORY TORY -32.1 TORY SAME
South West SOMERTON & FROME 35.85 -39.49 -15.77 TORY TORY -32.5 TORY SAME
SOUTH BASILDON & EAST
Eastern THURROCK 24.38 -24.38 -13.43 TORY TORY -26.8 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE 24.57 -24.57 -21.82 TORY TORY -25.4 TORY SAME
East Midlands SOUTH DERBYSHIRE 22.74 -22.74 -17.01 TORY TORY -19.8 TORY SAME
p45
Maj17 D-MRP-
South West SOUTH DORSET 22.53 -22.53 -13.7 TORY TORY -27.8 TORY SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
Eastern SOUTH EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE 25.65 -25.65 -15.55 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -26.3 TORY TORY
South West SOUTH EAST CORNWALL 32.77 -32.77 -20.2 TORY TORY -31.3 TORY SAME
East Midlands SOUTH HOLLAND & THE DEEPINGS 49.48 -49.48 -22.58 TORY TORY -35.1 TORY SAME
East Midlands SOUTH LEICESTERSHIRE 32.87 -32.87 -23.49 TORY TORY -26.1 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH NORFOLK 27.29 -27.29 -21.29 TORY TORY -28.5 TORY SAME
East Midlands SOUTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE 35.14 -35.14 -26.14 TORY TORY -28 TORY SAME
North West SOUTH RIBBLE 13.53 -13.53 -10.07 TORY TORY -16.5 TORY SAME
North SOUTH SHIELDS 35.58 35.58 4.34 LABOUR LABOUR 12.9 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE 44.48 -44.48 -18.82 TORY TORY -39.1 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH SUFFOLK 32.73 -32.73 -16.01 TORY TORY -31.6 TORY SAME
South West SOUTH SWINDON 4.81 -4.81 -8.53 TORY TORY -15.5 TORY SAME
South East SOUTH THANET 12.84 -12.84 -15.96 TORY TORY -21.9 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH WEST BEDFORDSHIRE 25.47 -25.47 -24.9 TORY TORY -26.8 TORY SAME
South West SOUTH WEST DEVON 29.92 -29.92 -20.95 TORY TORY -32.3 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH WEST HERTFORDSHIRE 32.23 -32.23 -15.34 TORY TORY -31.1 TORY SAME
Eastern SOUTH WEST NORFOLK 34.94 -34.94 -17.57 TORY TORY -33 TORY SAME
South East SOUTH WEST SURREY 35.73 -43.15 -22.74 TORY TORY -40.3 TORY SAME
South West SOUTH WEST WILTSHIRE 33.47 -33.47 -22.98 TORY TORY -32.9 TORY SAME
South East SOUTHAMPTON ITCHEN 0.07 -0.07 -5.66 TORY TORY -11.7 TORY SAME
South East SOUTHAMPTON TEST 24.53 24.53 0.67 LABOUR LABOUR 3.3 LABOUR SAME
Eastern SOUTHEND WEST 21.19 -21.19 -20.79 TORY TORY -24.6 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY-
North West SOUTHPORT 6.08 -6.08 -10.64 TORY TORY -18.4 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
South East SPELTHORNE 26.79 -26.79 -17.99 TORY TORY -30.2 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Eastern ST ALBANS 10.72 -20.06 -30.16 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -33.7 LIBDEM LIBDEM SAME
South West ST AUSTELL & NEWQUAY 20.55 -20.55 -18.28 TORY TORY -26.4 TORY SAME
North West ST HELENS NORTH 36.65 36.65 4.9 LABOUR LABOUR 12.1 LABOUR SAME
p46
Maj17 D-MRP-
North West ST HELENS SOUTH & WHISTON 46.03 46.03 11.6 LABOUR LABOUR 17.8 LABOUR SAME
TORY TO TORY-
South West ST IVES 0.61 -28.93 -15.97 TORY TORY -40 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
West Midlands STAFFORD 14.89 -14.89 -15.56 TORY TORY -22.2 TORY SAME
West Midlands STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS 24.25 -24.25 -15.72 TORY TORY -28.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West STALYBRIDGE & HYDE 19.04 19.04 -0.04 TORY LABOUR TORY 5 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern STEVENAGE 6.86 -6.86 -15.75 TORY TORY -15.9 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY TO
Scotland STIRLING (W) 0.30 -14.97 -22.52 SNP TORY SNP -38 SNP SNP SAME
North West STOCKPORT 34.85 34.85 4.59 LABOUR LABOUR 14.4 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North STOCKTON NORTH 20.40 20.40 -1.92 TORY LABOUR TORY 4.4 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North STOCKTON SOUTH 1.65 1.65 -6.21 TORY LABOUR TORY -5.4 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT CENTRAL 11.76 11.76 -6.18 TORY LABOUR TORY -3.9 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT NORTH 5.65 5.65 -10.54 TORY LABOUR TORY -8.7 TORY TORY SAME
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT SOUTH 1.59 -1.59 -7.18 TORY TORY -12.9 TORY SAME
West Midlands STONE 34.97 -34.97 -22.42 TORY TORY -34.9 TORY SAME
West Midlands STOURBRIDGE 16.24 -16.24 -12.89 TORY TORY -22.1 TORY SAME
West Midlands STRATFORD-ON-AVON 41.02 -41.02 -24.28 TORY TORY -34.6 TORY SAME
London STREATHAM 47.11 47.11 3.59 LABOUR LABOUR 11.5 LABOUR SAME
North West STRETFORD & URMSTON 39.26 39.26 9.55 LABOUR LABOUR 18.8 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
South West STROUD 1.08 1.08 -8.18 TORY LABOUR TORY -14.1 TORY TORY SAME
Eastern SUFFOLK COASTAL 27.57 -27.57 -18.37 TORY TORY -29.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North SUNDERLAND CENTRAL 22.16 22.16 -0.57 TORY LABOUR TORY 6.6 LABOUR LABOUR
South East SURREY HEATH 43.14 -43.14 -18.22 TORY TORY -36.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY-
London SUTTON & CHEAM 24.43 -30.60 -26.27 TORY TORY -28.4 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
West Midlands SUTTON COLDFIELD 29.02 -29.02 -21.08 TORY TORY -29.9 TORY SAME
p47
Maj17 D-MRP-
Wales SWANSEA EAST 37.45 37.45 5.26 LABOUR LABOUR 1.8 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
Wales SWANSEA WEST 28.43 28.43 0.31 LABOUR LABOUR -3.3 TORY TORY TORY
West Midlands TAMWORTH 26.21 -26.21 -15.73 TORY TORY -27.5 TORY SAME
North West TATTON 30.11 -30.11 -19.69 TORY TORY -25 TORY SAME
South West TAUNTON DEANE 25.20 -37.50 -21.07 TORY TORY -30.6 TORY SAME
West Midlands TELFORD 1.61 -1.61 -10.19 TORY TORY -13 TORY SAME
South West TEWKESBURY 38.21 -38.21 -23.83 TORY TORY -34 TORY SAME
South West THE COTSWOLDS 42.71 -42.71 -22.92 TORY TORY -35.4 TORY SAME
West Midlands THE WREKIN 19.31 -19.31 -17.48 TORY TORY -24 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber THIRSK & MALTON 33.97 -33.97 -20.14 TORY TORY -27.8 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY-
South West THORNBURY & YATE 23.81 -43.20 -19.1 TORY TORY -36.2 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
Eastern THURROCK 0.69 -0.69 -11.04 TORY TORY -14.1 TORY SAME
South West TIVERTON & HONITON 34.25 -34.25 -22.14 TORY TORY -33.6 TORY SAME
South East TONBRIDGE & MALLING 41.31 -41.31 -21.43 TORY TORY -36.2 TORY SAME
London TOOTING 26.57 26.57 2.36 LABOUR LABOUR 9.3 LABOUR SAME
South West TORBAY 27.91 -34.84 -15.43 TORY TORY -30.1 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales TORFAEN 26.65 26.65 -3.54 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.3 TORY TORY SAME
South West TORRIDGE & WEST DEVON 34.78 -34.78 -19.05 TORY TORY -32.2 TORY SAME
South West TOTNES 26.81 -26.81 -13.59 TORY TORY -29.7 TORY SAME
London TOTTENHAM 70.09 70.09 6.32 LABOUR LABOUR 32.1 LABOUR SAME
South West TRURO & FALMOUTH 6.69 -6.69 -5.34 TORY TORY -18.7 TORY SAME
South East TUNBRIDGE WELLS 30.37 -30.37 -22.59 TORY TORY -29.9 TORY SAME
London TWICKENHAM 14.73 -43.53 -34.87 LIBDEM LIBDEM -54.8 LIBDEM SAME
North TYNEMOUTH 20.52 20.52 6.57 LABOUR LABOUR 4.8 LABOUR SAME
London UXBRIDGE & SOUTH RUISLIP 10.78 -10.78 -14.06 TORY TORY -17.4 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales VALE OF CLWYD 6.15 6.15 -15.19 TORY LABOUR TORY -14.4 TORY TORY SAME
p48
Maj17 D-MRP-
TORY TO LIBDEM-
Wales VALE OF GLAMORGAN 4.08 -4.08 -10.73 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -20.5 TORY TORY
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO TORY-
London VAUXHALL 36.79 36.79 -0.37 TORY LABOUR TORY -3.7 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Yorkshire and Humber WAKEFIELD 4.70 4.70 -6.39 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.8 TORY TORY SAME
North West WALLASEY 48.23 48.23 16.94 LABOUR LABOUR 21.4 LABOUR SAME
West Midlands WALSALL NORTH 6.82 -6.82 -8.24 TORY TORY -15.1 TORY SAME
West Midlands WALSALL SOUTH 20.18 20.18 0.41 LABOUR LABOUR 3.4 LABOUR SAME
London WALTHAMSTOW 66.50 66.50 7.94 LABOUR LABOUR 33.7 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North WANSBECK 24.58 24.58 -0.44 TORY LABOUR TORY 6.2 LABOUR LABOUR
TORY TO LIBDEM-
South East WANTAGE 27.33 -27.33 -16.47 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -28.8 TORY TORY
West Midlands WARLEY 41.00 41.00 7.88 LABOUR LABOUR 14.6 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West WARRINGTON NORTH 19.75 19.75 -4.42 TORY LABOUR TORY 3.1 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH 4.11 4.11 -1.22 TORY LABOUR TORY -5.4 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands WARWICK & LEAMINGTON 2.23 2.23 -10.11 TORY LABOUR TORY -10.3 TORY TORY SAME
WASHINGTON & SUNDERLAND LABOUR TO TORY-
North WEST 31.89 31.89 -0.9 TORY LABOUR TORY 10.7 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern WATFORD 3.57 -3.57 -20.51 TORY TORY -13.3 TORY SAME
Eastern WAVENEY 17.49 -17.49 -9.33 TORY TORY -22.1 TORY SAME
South East WEALDEN 39.08 -39.08 -22.17 TORY TORY -35.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North West WEAVER VALE 7.76 7.76 -3.19 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.8 TORY TORY SAME
East Midlands WELLINGBOROUGH 23.40 -23.40 -12.79 TORY TORY -19.3 TORY SAME
TORY TO TORY-
South West WELLS 12.46 -38.39 -19.57 TORY TORY -37.3 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
Eastern WELWYN HATFIELD 14.26 -14.26 -9.57 TORY TORY -20.2 TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber WENTWORTH & DEARNE 33.68 33.68 1.82 LABOUR LABOUR 10 LABOUR SAME
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & TORY TO
Scotland KINCARDINE (W) 15.40 -36.80 -22.99 SNP TORY SNP -36 TORY SNP-TORY
p49
Maj17 D-MRP-
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands WEST BROMWICH EAST 19.73 19.73 -6.14 TORY LABOUR TORY -0.7 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands WEST BROMWICH WEST 12.36 12.36 -11.22 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.9 TORY TORY SAME
South West WEST DORSET 32.03 -37.22 -18.19 TORY TORY -32.3 TORY SAME
Scotland WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE (W) 5.19 -5.19 -29.34 SNP SNP -28.1 SNP SAME
London WEST HAM 60.54 60.54 17.56 LABOUR LABOUR 32.2 LABOUR SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West WEST LANCASHIRE 21.49 21.49 -2.92 TORY LABOUR TORY 4.3 LABOUR LABOUR
Eastern WEST SUFFOLK 32.97 -32.97 -16.65 TORY TORY -31.1 TORY SAME
West Midlands WEST WORCESTERSHIRE 37.77 -37.77 -23.97 TORY TORY -34.3 TORY SAME
London WESTMINSTER NORTH 26.59 26.59 3.1 LABOUR LABOUR 11.2 LABOUR SAME
LIBDEM TO TORY-
North West WESTMORLAND & LONSDALE 1.50 -36.57 -20.75 TORY LIBDEM TORY -43.6 LIBDEM LIBDEM
South West WESTON-SUPER-MARE 20.46 -20.46 -16.2 TORY TORY -25.6 TORY SAME
North West WIGAN 33.71 33.71 6.51 LABOUR LABOUR 10.5 LABOUR SAME
TORY TO LIBDEM-
London WIMBLEDON 10.91 -10.91 -12.27 LIBDEM TORY LIBDEM -16.7 TORY TORY
TORY TO TORY-
South East WINCHESTER 17.49 -41.50 -21.19 TORY TORY -40.4 LIBDEM LIBDEM LIBDEM
South East WINDSOR 41.51 -41.51 -18.67 TORY TORY -35.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West WIRRAL SOUTH 18.42 18.42 -6.86 TORY LABOUR TORY 3 LABOUR LABOUR
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
North West WIRRAL WEST 12.21 12.21 6.54 LABOUR LABOUR -0.6 TORY TORY TORY
Eastern WITHAM 37.87 -37.87 -25.03 TORY TORY -34.4 TORY SAME
South East WITNEY 34.86 -34.86 -24.33 TORY TORY -31.4 TORY SAME
South East WOKING 30.27 -30.27 -22.76 TORY TORY -28.9 TORY SAME
South East WOKINGHAM 31.49 -31.49 -20.16 TORY TORY -30.3 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST 12.56 12.56 -5.85 TORY LABOUR TORY -4.8 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR-
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH EAST 23.45 23.45 0.42 LABOUR LABOUR -0.1 TORY TORY TORY
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST 5.16 5.16 -5.68 TORY LABOUR TORY -7.7 TORY TORY SAME
p50
Maj17 D-MRP-
West Midlands WORCESTER 4.88 -4.88 -10.66 TORY TORY -14.5 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
North WORKINGTON 9.42 9.42 -8.24 TORY LABOUR TORY -2.6 TORY TORY SAME
LABOUR TO TORY-
North West WORSLEY & ECCLES SOUTH 18.36 18.36 -3.03 TORY LABOUR TORY 3.9 LABOUR LABOUR
South East WORTHING WEST 22.18 -22.18 -15.72 TORY TORY -27.2 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales WREXHAM 5.22 5.22 -4.31 TORY LABOUR TORY -15.5 TORY TORY SAME
South East WYCOMBE 12.30 -12.30 -15.11 TORY TORY -17.5 TORY SAME
North West WYRE & PRESTON NORTH 23.26 -23.26 -19.1 TORY TORY -22.4 TORY SAME
West Midlands WYRE FOREST 26.08 -26.08 -21.19 TORY TORY -27.7 TORY SAME
North West WYTHENSHAWE & SALE EAST 32.60 32.60 8.9 LABOUR LABOUR 13 LABOUR SAME
South West YEOVIL 24.78 -42.00 -11.95 TORY TORY -31.9 TORY SAME
LABOUR TO LABOUR TO
Wales YNYS MON 14.07 14.07 -18.99 TORY LABOUR TORY -9.4 TORY TORY SAME
Yorkshire and Humber YORK CENTRAL 34.99 34.99 4.73 LABOUR LABOUR 15.8 LABOUR SAME
Yorkshire and Humber YORK OUTER 14.43 -14.43 -11.53 TORY TORY -15.6 TORY SAME
p51
Appendix 3. List of Labour MPs which MRP model predicts we would lose, by party
to which they are lost
Region Constituency MP
Labour to LibDem
London BATTERSEA Marsha de Cordova
London BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK Neil Coyle
London BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH Ruth Cadbury
Eastern CAMBRIDGE Daniel Zeichner
Wales CARDIFF SOUTH & PENARTH Stephen Doughty
London CROYDON CENTRAL Sarah Jones
London DULWICH & WEST NORWOOD Helen Hayes
London GREENWICH & WOOLWICH Matthew Pennycook
London HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN Tulip Siddiq
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS NORTH EAST Fabian Hamilton
Yorkshire and Humber LEEDS NORTH WEST Alex Sobel
London LEWISHAM DEPTFORD Vicky Foxcroft
London LEWISHAM EAST Janet Daby
London LEYTON & WANSTEAD John Cryer
North West MANCHESTER WITHINGTON Jeff Smith
Wales NEWPORT WEST Ruth Jones
South East PORTSMOUTH SOUTH Stephen Morgan
Yorkshire and Humber SHEFFIELD HALLAM Jared O'Mara (Ind)
Labour to Conservative
Wales ABERAVON Stephen Kinnock
North West ASHTON UNDER LYNE Angela Rayner
North West BARROW & FURNESS John Woodcock (Ind)
East Midlands BASSETLAW John Mann (Ind)
Yorkshire and Humber BATLEY & SPEN Tracy Brabin
Eastern BEDFORD Mohammad Yasin
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON Preet Gill
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON Jack Dromey
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD Richard Burden
North BISHOP AUCKLAND Helen Goodman
North West BLACKPOOL SOUTH Gordon Marsden
Wales BLAENAU GWENT Nick Smith
East Midlands BOLSOVER Dennis Skinner
North West BOLTON NORTH EAST Sir David Crausby
North West BOLTON SOUTH EAST Yasmin Qureshi
Yorkshire and Humber BRADFORD SOUTH Judith Cummins
Wales BRIDGEND Madeleine Moon
North West BURY NORTH James Frith
North West BURY SOUTH Ivan Lewis
South East CANTERBURY Rosie Duffield
p52
Wales CARDIFF NORTH Anna McMorrin
Wales CARDIFF WEST Kevin Brennan
North West CHORLEY Lindsay Hoyle
North West CITY OF CHESTER Christian Matheson
Wales CLWYD SOUTH Susan Elan Jones
Yorkshire and Humber COLNE VALLEY Thelma Walker
West Midlands COVENTRY NORTH WEST Geoffrey Robinson
West Midlands COVENTRY SOUTH James Cunningham
North West CREWE & NANTWICH Laura Smith
London DAGENHAM & RAINHAM Jon Cruddas
North DARLINGTON Jenny Chapman
East Midlands DERBY NORTH Chris Williamson (Ind)
Yorkshire and Humber DEWSBURY Paula Sherriff
Yorkshire and Humber DON VALLEY Caroline Flint
Yorkshire and Humber DONCASTER CENTRAL Rosie Winterton
West Midlands DUDLEY NORTH Ian Austin (Ind)
London EALING NORTH Steve Pound
London ENFIELD NORTH Joan Ryan (Change UK)
London ENFIELD SOUTHGATE Bambos Charalambous
London FELTHAM & HESTON Seema Malhotra
North GATESHEAD Ian Mearns
East Midlands GEDLING Vernon Coaker
Yorkshire and Humber GREAT GRIMSBY Melanie Onn
Yorkshire and Humber HALIFAX Holly Lynch
North HARTLEPOOL Mike Hill
Yorkshire and Humber HEMSWORTH Jon Trickett
North West HEYWOOD & MIDDLETON Liz McInnes
East Midlands HIGH PEAK Ruth George
North West HYNDBURN Graham Jones
London ILFORD NORTH Wes Streeting
Eastern IPSWICH Sandy Martin
Yorkshire and Humber KEIGHLEY John Grogan
London KENSINGTON Emma Dent Coad
North West LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD Cat Smith
North West LEIGH Joanne Platt
East Midlands LINCOLN Karen Lee
Wales LLANELLI Nia Griffith
Eastern LUTON SOUTH Gavin Shuker
Wales NEATH Christina Rees
West Midlands NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME Paul Farrelly
North NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE NORTH Catherine McKinnell
Wales NEWPORT EAST Jessica Morden
North West OLDHAM EAST & SADDLEWORTH Debbie Abrahams
Yorkshire and Humber PENISTONE & STOCKSBRIDGE Angela Smith (Change UK)
Eastern PETERBOROUGH Fiona Onasanya
Wales PONTYPRIDD Owen Smith
p53
South East READING EAST Matt Rodda
Wales RHONDDA Chris Bryant
Yorkshire and Humber ROTHER VALLEY Sir Kevin Barron
Yorkshire and Humber ROTHERHAM Sarah Champion
Yorkshire and Humber SCUNTHORPE Nic Dakin
North SEDGEFIELD Phil Wilson
North West STALYBRIDGE & HYDE Jonathan Reynolds
North STOCKTON NORTH Alex Cunningham
North STOCKTON SOUTH Paul Williams
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT CENTRAL Gareth Snell
West Midlands STOKE-ON-TRENT NORTH Ruth Smeeth
South West STROUD David Drew
North SUNDERLAND CENTRAL Julie Elliott
Wales TORFAEN Nick Thomas-Symonds
Wales VALE OF CLWYD Chris Ruane
London VAUXHALL Kate Hoey
Yorkshire and Humber WAKEFIELD Mary Creagh
North WANSBECK Ian Lavery
North West WARRINGTON NORTH Helen Jones
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH Faisal Rashid
West Midlands WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Matt Western
North WASHINGTON & SUNDERLAND WEST Sharon Hodgson
North West WEAVER VALE Mike Amesbury
West Midlands WEST BROMWICH EAST Tom Watson
West Midlands WEST BROMWICH WEST Adrian Bailey
North West WEST LANCASHIRE Rosie Cooper
North West WIRRAL SOUTH Alison McGovern
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST Emma Reynolds
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST Eleanor Smith
North WORKINGTON Sue Hayman
North West WORSLEY & ECCLES SOUTH Barbara Keeley
Wales WREXHAM Ian Lucas
Wales YNYS MON Albert Owen
Labour to Brexit
Wales CYNON VALLEY Ann Clwyd
Labour to SNP (this is every Labour seat in Scotland)

COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & BELLSHILL
Scotland (W) Hugh Gaffney
Scotland EAST LOTHIAN (W) Martin Whitfield
Scotland EDINBURGH SOUTH (W) Ian Murray
Scotland GLASGOW NORTH EAST (W) Paul Sweeney
Scotland KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH (W) Lesley Laird
Scotland MIDLOTHIAN (W) Danielle Rowley
Scotland RUTHERGLEN & HAMILTON WEST (W) Ged Killen
p54
Appendix 4. List of Labour MPs which MRP model predicts we would lose, by
region/nation.
The model predicts we would lose 125 seats, with the following party/region
breakdown. The seats are listed individually below the table.
Region/Nation Lost to Lost to Lost to SNP Lost to Brexit Grand

Conservatives LibDems Party Total
East Midlands 6 6
Eastern 4 1 5
London 8 10 18
North 12 12
North West 22 1 23
Scotland 7 7
South East 2 1 3
South West 1 1
Wales 15 2 1 18
West Midlands 14 14
Yorkshire and 15 3 18
Humber
Grand Total 99 18 7 1 125
The full listing is as below.
Constituency MP Change
East Midlands
BASSETLAW John Mann (Ind) LABOUR TO TORY
BOLSOVER Dennis Skinner LABOUR TO TORY
DERBY NORTH Chris Williamson (Ind) LABOUR TO TORY
GEDLING Vernon Coaker LABOUR TO TORY
HIGH PEAK Ruth George LABOUR TO TORY
LINCOLN Karen Lee LABOUR TO TORY
Eastern
CAMBRIDGE Daniel Zeichner LABOUR TO LIBDEM
BEDFORD Mohammad Yasin LABOUR TO TORY
IPSWICH Sandy Martin LABOUR TO TORY
LUTON SOUTH Gavin Shuker LABOUR TO TORY
PETERBOROUGH Lisa Forbes LABOUR TO TORY
London
BATTERSEA Marsha de Cordova LABOUR TO LIBDEM
BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK Neil Coyle LABOUR TO LIBDEM
BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH Ruth Cadbury LABOUR TO LIBDEM
CROYDON CENTRAL Sarah Jones LABOUR TO LIBDEM
DULWICH & WEST NORWOOD Helen Hayes LABOUR TO LIBDEM
p55
GREENWICH & WOOLWICH Matthew Pennycook LABOUR TO LIBDEM
HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN Tulip Siddiq LABOUR TO LIBDEM
LEWISHAM DEPTFORD Vicky Foxcroft LABOUR TO LIBDEM
LEWISHAM EAST Janet Daby LABOUR TO LIBDEM
LEYTON & WANSTEAD John Cryer LABOUR TO LIBDEM
DAGENHAM & RAINHAM Jon Cruddas LABOUR TO TORY
EALING NORTH Steve Pound LABOUR TO TORY
ENFIELD NORTH Joan Ryan (Change UK) LABOUR TO TORY
ENFIELD SOUTHGATE Bambos Charalambous LABOUR TO TORY
FELTHAM & HESTON Seema Malhotra LABOUR TO TORY
ILFORD NORTH Wes Streeting LABOUR TO TORY
KENSINGTON Emma Dent Coad LABOUR TO TORY
VAUXHALL Kate Hoey LABOUR TO TORY
North
BISHOP AUCKLAND Helen Goodman LABOUR TO TORY
DARLINGTON Jenny Chapman LABOUR TO TORY
GATESHEAD Ian Mearns LABOUR TO TORY
HARTLEPOOL Mike Hill LABOUR TO TORY
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE NORTH Catherine McKinnell LABOUR TO TORY
SEDGEFIELD Phil Wilson LABOUR TO TORY
STOCKTON NORTH Alex Cunningham LABOUR TO TORY
STOCKTON SOUTH Paul Williams LABOUR TO TORY
SUNDERLAND CENTRAL Julie Elliott LABOUR TO TORY
WANSBECK Ian Lavery LABOUR TO TORY
WASHINGTON & SUNDERLAND WEST Sharon Hodgson LABOUR TO TORY
WORKINGTON Sue Hayman LABOUR TO TORY
North West
MANCHESTER WITHINGTON Jeff Smith LABOUR TO LIBDEM
ASHTON UNDER LYNE Angela Rayner LABOUR TO TORY
BARROW & FURNESS John Woodcock (Ind) LABOUR TO TORY
BLACKPOOL SOUTH Gordon Marsden LABOUR TO TORY
BOLTON NORTH EAST Sir David Crausby LABOUR TO TORY
BOLTON SOUTH EAST Yasmin Qureshi LABOUR TO TORY
BURY NORTH James Frith LABOUR TO TORY
BURY SOUTH Ivan Lewis LABOUR TO TORY
CHORLEY Lindsay Hoyle LABOUR TO TORY
CITY OF CHESTER Christian Matheson LABOUR TO TORY
CREWE & NANTWICH Laura Smith LABOUR TO TORY
HEYWOOD & MIDDLETON Liz McInnes LABOUR TO TORY
HYNDBURN Graham Jones LABOUR TO TORY
LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD Cat Smith LABOUR TO TORY
LEIGH Joanne Platt LABOUR TO TORY
OLDHAM EAST & SADDLEWORTH Debbie Abrahams LABOUR TO TORY
p56
STALYBRIDGE & HYDE Jonathan Reynolds LABOUR TO TORY
WARRINGTON NORTH Helen Jones LABOUR TO TORY
WARRINGTON SOUTH Faisal Rashid LABOUR TO TORY
WEAVER VALE Mike Amesbury LABOUR TO TORY
WEST LANCASHIRE Rosie Cooper LABOUR TO TORY
WIRRAL SOUTH Alison McGovern LABOUR TO TORY
WORSLEY & ECCLES SOUTH Barbara Keeley LABOUR TO TORY
Scotland
COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & BELLSHILL
(W) Hugh Gaffney LABOUR TO SNP
EAST LOTHIAN (W) Martin Whitfield LABOUR TO SNP
EDINBURGH SOUTH (W) Ian Murray LABOUR TO SNP
GLASGOW NORTH EAST (W) Paul Sweeney LABOUR TO SNP
KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH (W) Lesley Laird LABOUR TO SNP
MIDLOTHIAN (W) Danielle Rowley LABOUR TO SNP
RUTHERGLEN & HAMILTON WEST (W) Ged Killen LABOUR TO SNP
South East
PORTSMOUTH SOUTH Stephen Morgan LABOUR TO LIBDEM
CANTERBURY Rosie Duffield LABOUR TO TORY
READING EAST Matt Rodda LABOUR TO TORY
South West
STROUD David Drew LABOUR TO TORY
Wales
CYNON VALLEY Ann Clwyd LABOUR TO BREXIT
CARDIFF SOUTH & PENARTH Stephen Doughty LABOUR TO LIBDEM
NEWPORT WEST Ruth Jones LABOUR TO LIBDEM
ABERAVON Stephen Kinnock LABOUR TO TORY
BLAENAU GWENT Nick Smith LABOUR TO TORY
BRIDGEND Madeleine Moon LABOUR TO TORY
CARDIFF NORTH Anna McMorrin LABOUR TO TORY
CARDIFF WEST Kevin Brennan LABOUR TO TORY
CLWYD SOUTH Susan Elan Jones LABOUR TO TORY
LLANELLI Nia Griffith LABOUR TO TORY
NEATH Christina Rees LABOUR TO TORY
NEWPORT EAST Jessica Morden LABOUR TO TORY
PONTYPRIDD Owen Smith LABOUR TO TORY
RHONDDA Chris Bryant LABOUR TO TORY
TORFAEN Nick Thomas-Symonds LABOUR TO TORY
VALE OF CLWYD Chris Ruane LABOUR TO TORY
WREXHAM Ian Lucas LABOUR TO TORY
YNYS MON Albert Owen LABOUR TO TORY
p57
West Midlands
BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON Preet Gill LABOUR TO TORY
BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON Jack Dromey LABOUR TO TORY
BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD Richard Burden LABOUR TO TORY
COVENTRY NORTH WEST Geoffrey Robinson LABOUR TO TORY
COVENTRY SOUTH James Cunningham LABOUR TO TORY
DUDLEY NORTH Ian Austin (Ind) LABOUR TO TORY
NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME Paul Farrelly LABOUR TO TORY
STOKE-ON-TRENT CENTRAL Gareth Snell LABOUR TO TORY
STOKE-ON-TRENT NORTH Ruth Smeeth LABOUR TO TORY
WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Matt Western LABOUR TO TORY
WEST BROMWICH EAST Tom Watson LABOUR TO TORY
WEST BROMWICH WEST Adrian Bailey LABOUR TO TORY
WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST Emma Reynolds LABOUR TO TORY
WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST Eleanor Smith LABOUR TO TORY
Yorkshire and Humber

LEEDS NORTH EAST Fabian Hamilton LABOUR TO LIBDEM
LEEDS NORTH WEST Alex Sobel LABOUR TO LIBDEM
SHEFFIELD HALLAM Jared O'Mara (Ind) LABOUR TO LIBDEM
BATLEY & SPEN Tracy Brabin LABOUR TO TORY
BRADFORD SOUTH Judith Cummins LABOUR TO TORY
COLNE VALLEY Thelma Walker LABOUR TO TORY
DEWSBURY Paula Sherriff LABOUR TO TORY
DON VALLEY Caroline Flint LABOUR TO TORY
DONCASTER CENTRAL Rosie Winterton LABOUR TO TORY
GREAT GRIMSBY Melanie Onn LABOUR TO TORY
HALIFAX Holly Lynch LABOUR TO TORY
HEMSWORTH Jon Trickett LABOUR TO TORY
KEIGHLEY John Grogan LABOUR TO TORY
PENISTONE & STOCKSBRIDGE Angela Smith (Change UK) LABOUR TO TORY
ROTHER VALLEY Sir Kevin Barron LABOUR TO TORY
ROTHERHAM Sarah Champion LABOUR TO TORY
SCUNTHORPE Nic Dakin LABOUR TO TORY
WAKEFIELD Mary Creagh LABOUR TO TORY
p58
Appendix 5. List of constituencies which the MRP model predicts we would gain.
This is the complete list of seats, which on current polling and using our MRP model
we think we would win from other parties. There is one (1) such seat.
Region Constituency Current MP Candidate Change

MIDDLESBROUGH SOUTH & Lauren TORY TO
North EAST CLEVELAND Simon Clarke Dingsdale LABOUR
p59
Appendix 6. List of constituencies which the MRP model predicts we would lose to
the Conservatives because of LibDem surge.
This is a list of every seat which the model predicts would be lost to the Conservatives,
principally by virtue of the expected strong Liberal Democrat performance. These are
the places where the expected improvement in the Liberal Democrat performance
since 2017 is modelled to be greater than the Tory margin of victory based on our
analysis. There are 75 such seats.
Predicted
Tory
Predicted LD Victory
Change (% of Margin (%
Region Constituency MP all votes) of all votes)
East Midlands BASSETLAW John Mann (Ind) 6.82 5.43
East Midlands BOLSOVER Dennis Skinner 7.10 0.7
East Midlands DERBY NORTH Chris Williamson (Ind) 12.11 0.67
East Midlands GEDLING Vernon Coaker 9.21 8.58
East Midlands HIGH PEAK Ruth George 11.39 7.89
East Midlands LINCOLN Karen Lee 9.46 9.27
Eastern BEDFORD Mohammad Yasin 8.28 8.01
Eastern IPSWICH Sandy Martin 12.63 4.02
Eastern LUTON SOUTH Gavin Shuker (Change UK) 11.22 6.57
London EALING NORTH Steve Pound 11.98 1.61
London ENFIELD NORTH Joan Ryan (Change UK) 17.29 3.63
London ENFIELD SOUTHGATE Bambos Charalambous 15.10 8.36
London FELTHAM & HESTON Seema Malhotra 8.46 3.69
London ILFORD NORTH Wes Streeting 14.24 7.48
North BISHOP AUCKLAND Helen Goodman 6.04 4.26
North DARLINGTON Jenny Chapman 6.36 4.99
North GATESHEAD Ian Mearns 9.74 0.28
North HARTLEPOOL Mike Hill 5.91 2.52
NEWCASTLE UPON
North TYNE NORTH Catherine McKinnell 5.96 1.6
North SEDGEFIELD Phil Wilson 9.50 5.16
North STOCKTON NORTH Alex Cunningham 6.51 1.92
North STOCKTON SOUTH Paul Williams 15.33 6.21
SUNDERLAND
North CENTRAL Julie Elliott 7.20 0.57
North WANSBECK Ian Lavery 4.38 0.44
WASHINGTON &
North SUNDERLAND WEST Sharon Hodgson 6.36 0.9
ASHTON UNDER
North West LYNE Angela Rayner 5.35 3.74
North West BARROW & FURNESS John Woodcock 9.27 5.24
BOLTON NORTH
North West EAST Sir David Crausby 9.07 0.08
North West BOLTON SOUTH EAST Yasmin Qureshi 7.19 1.5
North West BURY NORTH James Frith 11.06 2.76
p60
Predicted
Tory
North West BURY SOUTH Ivan Lewis 14.62 1.56
North West CHORLEY Lindsay Hoyle 8.65 6.07
North West CITY OF CHESTER Christian Matheson 15.87 3.94
North West HYNDBURN Graham Jones 7.56 3
LANCASTER &
North West FLEETWOOD Cat Smith 11.19 0.9
OLDHAM EAST &
North West SADDLEWORTH Debbie Abrahams 9.01 3.32
North West STALYBRIDGE & HYDE Jonathan Reynolds 6.97 0.04
WARRINGTON
North West NORTH Helen Jones 7.80 4.42
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH Faisal Rashid 12.23 1.22
North West WEAVER VALE Mike Amesbury 8.46 3.19
North West WEST LANCASHIRE Rosie Cooper 8.88 2.92
North West WIRRAL SOUTH Alison McGovern 10.94 6.86
WORSLEY & ECCLES
North West SOUTH Barbara Keeley 7.84 3.03
South East CANTERBURY Rosie Duffield 11.68 2.3
South East READING EAST Matt Rodda 12.38 1.22
South West STROUD David Drew 14.85 8.18
Wales BLAENAU GWENT Nick Smith 6.57 1.42
Wales BRIDGEND Madeleine Moon 8.31 6.45
Wales CARDIFF NORTH Anna McMorrin 12.45 3.79
Wales CARDIFF WEST Kevin Brennan 8.07 5.16
Wales CLWYD SOUTH Susan Elan Jones 5.47 5.35
Wales NEATH Christina Rees 4.18 2.52
Wales NEWPORT EAST Jessica Morden 7.96 6.14
Wales RHONDDA Chris Bryant 1.39 1.16
Wales TORFAEN Nick Thomas-Symonds 8.09 3.54
Wales WREXHAM Ian Lucas 13.15 4.31
BIRMINGHAM
West Midlands EDGBASTON Preet Gill 9.51 2.29
BIRMINGHAM
West Midlands NORTHFIELD Richard Burden 8.85 0.99
West Midlands COVENTRY SOUTH James Cunningham 10.42 4.47
WARWICK &
West Midlands LEAMINGTON Matt Western 16.64 1.77
WEST BROMWICH
West Midlands EAST Tom Watson 6.23 6.14
WOLVERHAMPTON
West Midlands NORTH EAST Emma Reynolds 6.84 5.85
WOLVERHAMPTON
West Midlands SOUTH WEST Eleanor Smith 12.18 5.68
Yorkshire and
Humber BATLEY & SPEN Tracy Brabin 8.99 2.69
Yorkshire and
Humber BRADFORD SOUTH Judith Cummins 6.49 0.59
p61
Predicted
Tory
Yorkshire and
Humber COLNE VALLEY Thelma Walker 7.43 3.19
Yorkshire and
Humber DEWSBURY Paula Sherriff 9.76 6.07
Yorkshire and DONCASTER
Humber CENTRAL Rosie Winterton 3.40 0.19
Yorkshire and
Humber HALIFAX Holly Lynch 7.63 4.23
Yorkshire and
Humber HEMSWORTH Jon Trickett 6.65 3
Yorkshire and
Humber KEIGHLEY John Grogan 12.60 7.27
Yorkshire and
Humber ROTHER VALLEY Sir Kevin Barron 8.42 7.73
Yorkshire and
Humber ROTHERHAM Sarah Champion 3.10 1
Yorkshire and
Humber SCUNTHORPE Nic Dakin 6.60 4.37
Yorkshire and
Humber WAKEFIELD Mary Creagh 7.01 6.39
p62
Appendix 7. List of constituencies which UNS says we win but MRP says we lose.
This is a list of constituencies which a simplistic Uniform National Swing model (the
one used by the website https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) suggests Labour would
win but which our more sophisticated MRP approach suggests we would lose.
Seat change
(according to
Region Constituency MP Majority17 MRP)
Eastern LUTON SOUTH Gavin Shuker (Change UK) 30.18 TORY
BRENTFORD &
London ISLEWORTH Ruth Cadbury 19.77 LIBDEM
DULWICH & WEST
London NORWOOD Helen Hayes 50.15 LIBDEM
London EALING NORTH Steve Pound 37.50 TORY
London ENFIELD NORTH Joan Ryan (Change UK) 21.10 TORY
London FELTHAM & HESTON Seema Malhotra 29.42 TORY
GREENWICH &
London WOOLWICH Matthew Pennycook 39.01 LIBDEM
HAMPSTEAD &
London KILBURN Tulip Siddiq 26.64 LIBDEM
London ILFORD NORTH Wes Streeting 18.21 TORY
London LEWISHAM DEPTFORD Vicky Foxcroft 63.32 LIBDEM
London LEWISHAM EAST Janet Daby 44.94 LIBDEM
London LEYTON & WANSTEAD John Cryer 48.96 LIBDEM
North GATESHEAD Ian Mearns 41.21 TORY
North HARTLEPOOL Mike Hill 18.29 TORY
NEWCASTLE UPON
North TYNE NORTH Catherine McKinnell 21.43 TORY
North SEDGEFIELD Phil Wilson 14.57 TORY
North STOCKTON NORTH Alex Cunningham 20.40 TORY
SUNDERLAND
North CENTRAL Julie Elliott 22.16 TORY
North WANSBECK Ian Lavery 24.58 TORY
WASHINGTON &
North SUNDERLAND WEST Sharon Hodgson 31.89 TORY
North West ASHTON UNDER LYNE Angela Rayner 28.40 TORY
North West BOLTON NORTH EAST Sir David Crausby 8.40 TORY
North West BOLTON SOUTH EAST Yasmin Qureshi 31.01 TORY
North West BURY NORTH James Frith 9.13 TORY
North West BURY SOUTH Ivan Lewis 11.70 TORY
North West CITY OF CHESTER Christian Matheson 16.26 TORY
HEYWOOD &
North West MIDDLETON Liz McInnes 15.28 TORY
North West HYNDBURN Graham Jones 12.86 TORY
LANCASTER &
North West FLEETWOOD Cat Smith 14.48 TORY
North West LEIGH Joanne Platt 20.38 TORY
MANCHESTER
North West WITHINGTON Jeff Smith 55.73 LIBDEM
OLDHAM EAST &
North West SADDLEWORTH Debbie Abrahams 17.39 TORY
p63
Seat change
(according to
Region Constituency MP Majority17 MRP)
North West STALYBRIDGE & HYDE Jonathan Reynolds 19.04 TORY
North West WARRINGTON NORTH Helen Jones 19.75 TORY
North West WEST LANCASHIRE Rosie Cooper 21.49 TORY
North West WIRRAL SOUTH Alison McGovern 18.42 TORY
WORSLEY & ECCLES
North West SOUTH Barbara Keeley 18.36 TORY
EDINBURGH SOUTH
Scotland (W) Ian Murray 32.43 SNP
Wales ABERAVON Stephen Kinnock 50.38 TORY
Wales BLAENAU GWENT Nick Smith 36.77 TORY
Wales CYNON VALLEY Ann Clwyd 41.63 BREXIT
Wales RHONDDA Chris Bryant 41.74 TORY
West BIRMINGHAM
Midlands ERDINGTON Jack Dromey 19.57 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber BATLEY & SPEN Tracy Brabin 16.66 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber BRADFORD SOUTH Judith Cummins 16.32 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber DEWSBURY Paula Sherriff 5.87 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber DONCASTER CENTRAL Rosie Winterton 23.55 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber HALIFAX Holly Lynch 11.14 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber HEMSWORTH Jon Trickett 22.14 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber LEEDS NORTH EAST Fabian Hamilton 32.06 LIBDEM
Yorkshire and
Humber ROTHERHAM Sarah Champion 30.03 TORY
p64
Appendix 8. List of constituencies which UNS says we lose but MRP says we win.
This is a list of constituencies which a simplistic Uniform National Swing model (the
one used by the website https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) suggests Labour would
lose but which our more sophisticated MRP approach suggests we would win.
Seat change
(according to
Region Constituency MP Majority17 UNS)
Wales ALYN & DEESIDE Mark Tami 11.70 TORY
East
Midlands ASHFIELD Gloria De Piero 0.88 TORY
BRIGHTON
South East KEMPTOWN Lloyd Russell-Moyle 20.05 TORY
BRISTOL NORTH
South West WEST Darren Jones 8.80 TORY
South West BRISTOL WEST Thangam Debbonaire 52.14 GREEN
Wales CAERPHILLY Wayne David 29.25 TORY
Wales DELYN David Hanson 10.76 TORY
London ELTHAM Clive Efford 13.64 TORY
Wales GOWER Tonia Antoniazzi 7.17 TORY
HORNSEY & WOOD
London GREEN Catherine West 49.34 LIBDEM
Wales ISLWYN Chris Evans 31.62 TORY
PLYMOUTH SUTTON
South West & DEVONPORT Luke Pollard 13.29 TORY
Wales SWANSEA WEST Geraint Davies 28.43 TORY
North West WIRRAL WEST Margaret Greenwood 12.21 TORY
West WOLVERHAMPTON
Midlands SOUTH EAST Pat McFadden 23.45 TORY
p65
Appendix 9. List of all current key seats where the Liberal Democrats would see a
bigger improvement than us.
This list is, simply, all current key seats (the whole of the list in Appendix 1).
This brings home the scale of the threat from the Liberal Democrat surge which we
face.
p66
Appendix 10. List of Labour-held seats which we would not hold on the MRP model
but we would come within a margin of 4% or less.
These are the 42 seats where, were we to be focused on spending resources so as to
maximize the number of Labour MPs, we would probably focus our resources.
These are seats where we expect on our model to lose the seat but where (given the
small margin of expected Tory victory) resource allocation from head office in pursuit
of a defensive strategy could make a difference to the outcome.
If we won all of these in addition to the seats in Appendix 12, and no other additional
seats, we would have 180 seats as against 138. If we won all of these and also all the
seats in Appendix 11, we would win 185 seats as against 138.
Predicted
Labour Labour
Majority Majority
Region Constituency MP 2017 (%) (%) Change
East Midlands BOLSOVER Dennis Skinner 11.37 -0.7 TORY
Chris Williamson
East Midlands DERBY NORTH (Ind) 4.14 -0.67 TORY
Eastern CAMBRIDGE Daniel Zeichner 22.64 -1.89 LIBDEM
London CROYDON CENTRAL Sarah Jones 9.90 -2.24 LIBDEM

London EALING NORTH Steve Pound 37.50 -1.61 TORY
Joan Ryan
London ENFIELD NORTH (Change UK) 21.10 -3.91 TORY
Seema
London FELTHAM & HESTON Malhotra 29.42 -3.69 TORY
London LEWISHAM DEPTFORD Vicky Foxcroft 63.32 -3.55 LIBDEM
London LEYTON & WANSTEAD John Cryer 48.96 -3.82 LIBDEM

London VAUXHALL Kate Hoey 36.79 -0.37 TORY
North GATESHEAD Ian Mearns 41.21 -0.28 TORY
North HARTLEPOOL Mike Hill 18.29 -3.56 TORY
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE Catherine
North NORTH McKinnell 21.43 -1.6 TORY
Alex
North STOCKTON NORTH Cunningham 20.40 -1.92 TORY
North SUNDERLAND CENTRAL Julie Elliott 22.16 -0.57 TORY
North WANSBECK Ian Lavery 24.58 -0.44 TORY
WASHINGTON & Sharon
North SUNDERLAND WEST Hodgson 31.89 -0.9 TORY
North West ASHTON UNDER LYNE Angela Rayner 28.40 -3.74 TORY
Sir David
North West BOLTON NORTH EAST Crausby 8.40 -0.08 TORY
North West BOLTON SOUTH EAST Yasmin Qureshi 31.01 -1.5 TORY
North West BURY NORTH James Frith 9.13 -2.76 TORY
p67
Predicted
Labour Labour
Majority Majority
Region Constituency MP 2017 (%) (%) Change
North West BURY SOUTH Ivan Lewis 11.70 -1.56 TORY
Christian
North West CITY OF CHESTER Matheson 16.26 -3.94 TORY
North West HYNDBURN Graham Jones 12.86 -3 TORY
North West LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD Cat Smith 14.48 -0.9 TORY
OLDHAM EAST & Debbie
North West SADDLEWORTH Abrahams 17.39 -3.32 TORY
Jonathan
North West STALYBRIDGE & HYDE Reynolds 19.04 -0.04 TORY
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH Faisal Rashid 4.11 -1.22 TORY
North West WEAVER VALE Mike Amesbury 7.76 -3.19 TORY
North West WEST LANCASHIRE Rosie Cooper 21.49 -2.92 TORY
North West WORSLEY & ECCLES SOUTH Barbara Keeley 18.36 -3.03 TORY
Wales CARDIFF NORTH Anna McMorrin 8.02 -3.79 TORY
Wales RHONDDA Chris Bryant 41.74 -1.16 TORY
Nick Thomas-
Wales TORFAEN Symonds 26.65 -3.54 TORY
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON Preet Gill 15.86 -2.29 TORY
West Midlands BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD Richard Burden 10.52 -0.99 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber BATLEY & SPEN Tracy Brabin 16.66 -2.69 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber COLNE VALLEY Thelma Walker 1.51 -3.19 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber DONCASTER CENTRAL Rosie Winterton 23.55 -0.58 TORY
Yorkshire and
Humber HEMSWORTH Jon Trickett 22.14 -3 TORY
Yorkshire and Fabian
Humber LEEDS NORTH EAST Hamilton 32.06 -0.22 LIBDEM
Yorkshire and Sarah
Humber ROTHERHAM Champion 30.03 -1.93 TORY
p68
Appendix 11. List of Early Selection Seats which we would not gain on the MRP
model but where we would come within a margin of 4% or less.
These are the Early Selection Seats which we would not gain on the MRP model but
we would come within a margin of 4% or less. Given the small margin of expected
Tory victory, resource allocation from head office in pursuit of an offensive strategy in
these seats could make a difference to the outcome.
If we won all of these in addition to the seats in Appendix 12, and no other additional
seats, we would have 143 seats as against 138.
If we won all of these and also all the seats in Appendix 10, we would win 185 seats as
against 138.
Labour Predicted
Majority Labour Predicted 2017
Region Constituency MP Candidate 2017 Majority winner winner
Yorkshire
and Stuart Jane
Humber PUDSEY Andrew Aitchison -0.61 -1.94 TORY TORY
PRESELI Stephen Philippa
Wales PEMBROKESHIRE Crabb Thompson -0.74 -2.39 TORY TORY
PAISLEY &
RENFREWSHIRE Mhairi Moira
Scotland SOUTH (W) Black Ramage -6.09 -1.61 SNP SNP
South Amber Peter
East HASTINGS & RYE Rudd Chowney -0.63 -3.48 TORY TORY
West SHREWSBURY & Daniel
Midlands ATCHAM Kawczynski Laura Davies -11.39 -3.05 TORY TORY
p69
Appendix 12. Labour MPs remaining after a defeat on this scale.

The current polling coupled with the MRP analysis predicts a PLP of 138 members, as
below. This list assumes that all current Labour MPs for those seats would seek re-
election. This is obviously not true (for example, Gloria de Piero has said she will
stand down), but is used for simplicity. Seats which the model suggests that Labour
would win but which do not currently have a Labour MP are represented by the name
of the seat in brackets, in the alphabetic location of the current MP for that seat.
Diane Abbott Barry Gardiner Jim McMahon

Rushanara Ali Mary Glindon Ed Miliband
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan Roger Godsiff Grahame Morris
Tonia Antoniazzi Kate Green Lisa Nandy
Jon Ashworth Lilian Greenwood Alex Norris
Margaret Beckett Margaret Greenwood Chi Onwurah
Hilary Benn Andrew Gwynne Kate Osamor
(LIVERPOOL WAVERTREE) Louise Haigh Stephanie Peacock
Clive Betts David Hanson Teresa Pearce
Roberta Blackman-Woods Emma Hardy Toby Perkins
Paul Blomfield Harriet Harman Jess Phillips
Ben Bradshaw Carolyn Harris Bridget Phillipson
Nick Brown John Healey Laura Pidcock
Lyn Brown Mark Hendrick Luke Pollard
Karen Buck Stephen Hepburn Lucy Powell
Richard Burgon Meg Hillier Steve Reed
Dawn Butler Margaret Hodge Rachel Reeves
Liam Byrne Kate Hollern Ellie Reeves
Ronnie Campbell Kelvin Hopkins Marie Rimmer
Alan Campbell George Howarth Lloyd Russell-Moyle
Dan Carden Rupa Huq Naz Shah
(MIDDLESBROUGH SOUTH & Imran Hussain Virendra Sharma
EAST CLEVELAND) Dan Jarvis Barry Sheerman
(STOCKPORT) Diana Johnson Andy Slaughter
Julie Cooper Darren Jones Karin Smyth
Yvette Cooper Gerald Jones John Spellar
Jeremy Corbyn Kevan Jones Keir Starmer
Stella Creasy Mike Kane Jo Stevens
Wayne David Liz Kendall Graham Stringer
Geraint Davies Mohammed Khan Mark Tami
Gloria De Piero Peter Kyle Gareth Thomas
Thangam Debbonaire David Lammy Emily Thornberry
Tan Dhesi (NOTTINGHAM EAST) Stephen Timms
Anneliese Dodds Emma Lewell-Buck Anna Turley
Peter Dowd Clive Lewis Karl Turner
Maria Eagle Tony Lloyd Derek Twigg
Angela Eagle Rebecca Long-Bailey Stephen Twigg
Clive Efford Justin Madders Liz Twist
Louise Ellman Shabana Mahmood (STREATHAM)
Chris Elmore Khalid Mahmood Keith Vaz
Bill Esterson Rachael Maskell Valerie Vaz
Chris Evans Steve McCabe Catherine West
(BIRKENHEAD) Kerry McCarthy Alan Whitehead
Jim Fitzpatrick Siobhain McDonagh
Colleen Fletcher Andy McDonald
Yvonne Fovargue John McDonnell
Gill Furniss Pat McFadden
(ILFORD SOUTH) Conor McGinn
p70

2019-09-18 Key Seats Strategy - An Update and Appraisal of Our Strategy PDF

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Data & Targeting

The Labour Party

From: Tim Waters, Director of Data & Date: 18 September 2019

To: Niall Sookoo, Executive Director, cc: (not copied)

Key seats strategy: an update and appraisal of our strategy in

Context: the initial list

In consequence, the list, reflecting as it did commonalities between the two

In a high turnout election such as a general election, and in a marginal race,

incumbent requires a substantially larger investment of human and financial

Table 1. Summary by region and nation of distribution of key seats,

Region/Nation Offensive Defensive Total

Feedback from regional directors/general secretaries

Seat specific issues, by region/nation

Regional/national strategic concerns

General strategic concerns

Polling and its analysis: multilevel regression and post

Source of data & data quality checks

Minimum 1st Quartile Median Mean 3rd Quartile Maximum

 The distribution of weights is somewhat positively skewed.

Table 3. Demographic representativeness of the polling dataset used for MRP.

 Compared to those registered to vote, the YouGov sample under-represents

 Generally, the regional distribution is representative after the sampling weights

Table 5. Distribution of regions/nations in the polling dataset used for MRP.

 The initial sampling frame significantly over-represents the female population

Table 6. Distribution of gender in the polling dataset used for MRP.

Headline voting intention from the poll (before MRP analysis)

Vote intention excluding “Don’t knows”

Party Weighted Count Weighted Vote Share (%)

Vote intention including “Don’t knows”

Party Weighted Count Weighted Vote Share (%)

Why are we doing MRP in house?

we have a slightly different set of challenges. We have a lot of experience in-house on

We have solved our computational difficulties through extensive preparation and

Multilevel regression (the MR of MRP) allows us to use a wide range of relevant

There are three types of variables used in these models: individual-level

Individual-level demographics include the baseline variables we hold, which are

Table 9. Data used to create our models.

Individual-Level Constituency-Level Constituency Political Data

Constituency Population Density (%) Estimated Leave 2016

* Not available for Scotland

How can MRP inform our strategy?

Thirdly, it allows improved understanding of seat-specific threats across the electoral

MRP analysis: top lines and details of further analysis

Assuming no change to seat distribution in Northern Ireland, and no change to Sinn

Appendix 4 sets out the same list, broken down by region/nation.

Appendix 8 is the reverse of Appendix 7 – it lists the constituencies which a simple

Liberal Democrat Threat

Leave, Remain, and relative stickiness

Segmentation of target voters

2020 local government elections

No. Content Page

1 List sent to the Regional Directors/General Secretaries with changes. 22

2 Full MRP projection of seat level results in Britain. 25

5 List of constituencies which the MRP model predicts we would gain. 59

12 Labour MPs remaining after a defeat on this scale. 70

Appendix 1. List sent to the Regional Directors/General Secretaries with changes.

REGION/NATION CONSTITUENCY STATUS CHANGE (IF ANY)

REGION/NATION CONSTITUENCY STATUS CHANGE (IF ANY)

REGION/NATION CONSTITUENCY STATUS CHANGE (IF ANY)

Appendix 2. Full MRP projection of seat level results in Britain.

North BLAYDON 28.03 28.03 4.51 LABOUR LABOUR 7 LABOUR SAME

South East BUCKINGHAM TORY SPEAKER TORY N/A