Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472

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Forest Policy and Economics

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / f o r p o l

Deforestation processes in Greece: A spatial analysis by using an ordinal

regression model
Dionysios Minetos 1, Serafeim Polyzos ⁎
University of Thessaly, Department of Planning and Regional Development, Pedion Areos, Volos, 38334, Greece

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Forest land use changes in Greece have been the outcome of combining forces with mostly economic and
Received 24 December 2008 institutional origin. Interactions between the major land uses have diachronically resulted in spatial patterns
Received in revised form 19 January 2010 of great economic and environmental interest. This paper aims at describing forest land use changes during
Accepted 16 February 2010
the last decades in Greece as well as analyzing the major regional and economic development implications.
Particular attention is given to the analysis of possible driving forces with economic and social origin. The
Keywords:
estimations are carried out through the use of a statistical model that employs ordinal regression analysis.
Deforestation
Land use change
Ordinal regression is a variation of ordinary regression which is used when the dependent variable is
Ordinal regression categorical and the explanatory variables are continuous, or categorical. An advantage of this type of
Greece regression is that requires fewer assumptions as regards the relationship between the explanatory variables
and the dependent variable. Assessing sustainability of development decisions on a regional scale through
the evaluation of likely impacts on forest resources can provide great support in formulating better regional
policies that incorporate the environmental protection objectives of the society.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Access to sufficient empirical evidence on the causes of land use
changes represents a critical step towards improving understanding
of land system functioning and for addressing the perplexing
interactions between people and their surroundings. Regardless of
its purpose, a reliable and consistent pool of evidence on the
evolution and state of regional land use systems within the broader
context of a country can contribute considerably to the improve-
ment of strategic policy design and implementation (Briassoulis,
2000; Agarwal et al., 2002). Nowadays, some of the most profound
land alteration phenomena are forest fragmentation and forest land
use conversion and modification (Geist and Lambin, 2001; Lambin
et al., 2001). The processes that drive those types of changes are
complex due to numerous dynamic interactions between natural
ecosystems and human demand for utilising land for a diverse range
of purposes.
Amongst others, forest land use changes occur for multiple reasons
and from interacting processes and mechanisms. Human-driven
changes at an array of scales are affecting forest ecosystems
accelerating processes such as global warming that affect human
well being. Research has demonstrated that in the long term, there is
not a single factor or set of factors that can adequately explain the
emerging patterns of land uses and the associated changes (Chomitz
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 30 24210 74446.
E-mail addresses: dminetos@prd.uth.gr (D. Minetos), spolyzos@uth.gr (S. Polyzos).
1
Tel.: + 30 24210 74276.
and Gray, 1996; Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999; Geist and Lambin,
2001; Lambin et al., 2001; Aspinall, 2004). Deforestation processes
have different characteristics across space and time (Verburg et al.,
2006). A particular combination of factors that may explain
deforestation patterns somewhere might not be applicable for
justifying changes in any other location or time period (Mahapatra
and Kant, 2005). In addition, forest fragmentation, conversion and
modification have diverse economic, social and environmental
implications (Elands and Wiersum, 2001; Walker, 2001; Platt, 2004;
Verburg et al., 2006) such as disruption in continuity of natural
landscape, forest and open-land squeeze between agricultural and
urban land uses, deterioration of vital habitats that sustain valuable
biodiversity as well as broader issues such as air pollution. Therefore,
there is a need for conducting empirical investigations in order to
analyse and understand the geographical and historical context of
land use changes.
This study primarily aims at: (a) revealing the major underlying
causes of forest land use changes in Greece for the period from 1990 to
2000 by using as a spatial scale of analysis the prefectural
administrative level (NUTS III) (b) identifying the agents and nature
of changes (c) examining whether some recent theoretical schemata
such as forest transition theory, can be used to effectively address
changes in forest land at the regional scale and (d) assessing some of
the implications of these changes. The above aims are pursued
through the estimation of the kind and magnitude of relations
between changes in forest land use and a wide range of socioeconomic
factors. The methodology adopted is ordinal regression analysis. This
type of regression is useful for processes that show some hierarchy or

1389-9341/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2010.02.011
458 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
grouping as well as when the data of land use change are not fully
reliable.
The paper is organised as follows. In Section 2 we provide a
framework for the empirical analysis by dealing with forest land use
change driving factors and relevant theoretical and empirical research
that refers to the process of deforestation. In Section 3 we present the
study area, the ordinal regression model and the independent
variables used in the analysis. The overall performance of the model
is commented upon. Next, in Section 4, the results are presented and
interpreted. We conclude in Section 5 commending on the wider
implications of the findings.
2. Building a conceptual framework for deforestation
Recent attempts to theorise forest land use changes have yielded
some noticeable contributions on the field of deforestation. One such
contribution referred to as forest transition theory (Mather, 1992;
Grainger, 1995; Mather and Needle, 1998) suggests that an overview
of forest land use changes in the long run, provides firm evidence that
while in the beginning forest land areas retreat at a high speed, at
some time the depletion starts slowing down. There is even a critical
point over which the process of depletion reverses and forest land
recovers by expanding into new areas. Prosperity level seems to have
a key role in the whole process. The change in the monotony of the
relationship between rate of deforestation and level of prosperity
suggested by the theory, shares some commons with Kuznets’
Environmental Curve (Koop and Tole, 1999; Ehrhardt-Martinez et al.,
2002) that links national and /or regional environmental quality with
the state of economic development. Mathematically speaking, the
relationships is a curve of the form f (x) = αx2 + βx + γ, α + β N 1,
where f (x) represents changes in environmental quality, χ refers to
the level of development in each spatial unit and α, β the coefficients
of the mathematical function.
Mather (1992) and Grainger (1995) argue that most of the
developed countries have been in a state of forest transition as forest
land has been expanding for several decades. Explanations concerning
forest transition processes are sought both in development theory and
modernization theory. These theoretical perspectives focus on the
importance of economic and social changes that spring from the
adjustment of the economic, social and political structures to
technological advances. Technological innovations allow for increased
productivity in the primary sector, limiting the needs for expansion on
new land and therefore the pressure on forest land retreats. A sizable
body of empirical research on forest transition theory has generated
considerable evidence in favour of some of the theory's reasoning
(Rudel, 1998; Koop and Tole, 1999; Mather et al., 1999; Mather and
Needle, 2000; Ehrhardt-Martinez et al., 2002; Rudel et al., 2005;
Rudel, 2007). Empirical evidence systematically suggests a negative
relationship between the rate of deforestation and the rate of
urbanization or the level of new technology adoption in the primary
sector (Perz, 2007).
However, it should be pointed out that there are important
variations concerning the assumptions, definitions and hypotheses of
these empirical analyses, which need to be carefully taken into
account in the course of literature review, synthesis and evaluation.
For instance, the definition of forest land varies amongst empirical
analyses creating a fuzzy framework for investigating deforestation. In
addition, pressure on forest land might result in varying outcomes
such as deforestation, forest degradation, fragmentation and changes
in the structure of forests. These types of forest changes might not be
feasible as well as sensible to compare to one another. There are also
important gaps regarding the temporal dimension as well as the pace
of advancement of forest transition procedure (Perz and Skole, 2003).
Time needed for approaching low deforestation rates may differ
across space, forest ecosystem type and social and political contexts
For example, it is uncertain whether there is enough available forest
land in small and medium-sized, developing insular regions to
approach low deforestation or even reforestation stages. In addition,
the underlying causes related to either increasing or decreasing rates
of deforestation may not be stable in a spatiotemporal context.
In a recent attempt of improving the context of the theory,
Angelsen (2007) suggests that the stages of forest transition theory
(low deforestation, intense deforestation, containment of deforesta-
tion, afforestation) can be better understood by focusing on the
fundamental characteristics of the long-term relationship between
agricultural land rent and forest land rent. Algebraically, this means
that forest land use changes [DU]fr are a function of agricultural

land

LR
rent [LR]agr and forest land rent [LR]frs of the type DUfst = f LRfrsagr . In
this case, the most important part of the analysis is to identify the way
and magnitude of influence of applied policies on agricultural and
forest land rent. The aforementioned analysis by Angelsen focuses on
tropical regions, where one of the most important proximate causes of
deforestation is believed to be agricultural activity. However, in cases
where urban land uses control the process of deforestation, the
relationship between forest and urban land uses in terms of land rent
might constantly fuel urban expansion. There are large regions such as
the Mediterranean where the productivity of forests is low compared
to the productivity of other forests in Europe (Koutroumanidis et al.,
2009). Therefore, it is almost impossible to expect Mediterranean
forests to antagonize successfully any other economic activity in term
of financial returns as long as several components of forest total
economic value such as indirect use value (e.g. protection of human
development), option use value, bequest value and existence value
are not properly considered.
An additional consideration regarding Agelesen's land rent
approach rests on the property regime of forest resources. In several
parts of the world, the great share of forest land belongs to the state. In
cases where the state cannot assure its one rights on land, there is
more scope for forest land encroachment and exploitation through
logging and cultivation and even urbanisation. This is frequently the
case in Greece where there does not exist a forest state cadastre. In
such cases, forest land use change processes maybe better understood
on the basis of Hardin's theory of the tragedy of the common (Hardin,
1968). Individuals when act independently might have no motives for
considering the need for a sustainable use of shared natural resources
(Herschel, 1997).
Approaches on a higher spatial scale of analysis regarding
unsustainable forest resource exploitation are not scarce. Several
researchers (Roberts and Greimes, 2002; Shandra et al., 2003),
drawing from the theory of dependence by Baran, Frank and Amin as
well as from world systems theory by Wallerstein, claim that the
developed regions have established a particular system of economic
exchange that imposes certain land use patterns to the less developed
regions. Power, wealth and prosperity are related to the depletion of
forest resources in the developing regions and to the sustainable use
and possible expansion in prosperous regions. Within the context of a
country, it might be interesting to examine the influence of leading,
usually populated regions on land use patterns of their adjacent less
developed rural regions. In turns, this raises the issue of how
accessibility in space as well as observed spatial patterns of wealth
link to deforestation.
At the human decision level of analysis, the importance and the
adaptive nature of strategies employed by agents in order to maintain
their prosperity level have been firmly established in the context of
multi-phasic response theory originally proposed by Davis (1963). It is
now believed that applied more broadly, multi-phasic response
theory can help us understand how agents' decisions impact land
use changes (Lambin et al., 2006). A similar body of approaches
attempts to apply concepts from game theory in order to capture
agents’ behaviour in the course of forest land use change (Fredj et al.,
2004). According to some of these perspectives, the major decisive
force of the way forest resources are utilized is state policies. State
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
policies are far from static paying particular importance to economic
growth especially during periods of economic difficulties where
environmental concerns are ranked low in social agenda. Bearing in
mind the structure of the Greek economy, policies with a strong
spatial dimension such as tourism accommodation infrastructure
policy, land use and housing policy as well as agricultural policy are
capable of impacting regional forest resources. Yet, in the context of
game theory it is proposed that it is possible to arrive to sufficient and
sustainable solutions to the issue of deforestation through coopera-
tion and coordination of the involved parties and individuals (Fredj
et al., 2004; Stern, 2006).
On the other hand, there is a quite different view concerning the
current social behaviour and state intervention towards forest
resources. It is widely believed that contemporary environmentally-
friendly policies such as afforestation policies are not merely an
opportunistic reaction to the undisputed acute depletion of forest
resources and its associated impacts. Instead, they may revile a much
deeper transformation of social attitudes and ethics towards the
environment. Mather et al. (2006) argue that at least in the case of
developed countries, a great part of society is driven by the principles
of post-productivism philosophy. Profit maximisation is not the only as
well as the central axis of individual behaviour formation. Therefore,
land use changes in the countryside could possibly be better under-
stood in light of society's priorities in the context set by post-
productivism. In this respect, Maslow's theory of the hierarchy of needs
sustains considerable potential of explaining certain emerging land
use conversions as well as land use qualitative modifications in
exurban land use systems.
Recently, the concept of post-productivism has been enriched with
a spatial dimension grounded on the observation that some regions
have developed stronger post-productivism structures than others
(Marsden, 1998; Mather et al., 2006). Post-productivism is thought of
as a spatial phenomenon too, that is strongly connected to the rural
patterns of land uses. Amongst others, Marsden (1998), Groot et al.
(2007) and van der Ploeg et al. (2000) underline the fact that there
exist considerable spatial differences within developed countries at
the regional level in relation to the intensity that one can observe
evidence of post-productivism. Nevertheless, Mather argues that in
spite of the observed spatial differences in the strength of post-
productivism characteristics amongst developed countries and
regions, the phenomenon is present and lies on deep social and
cultural transformations in progress. Such transformations are
capable of inducing constructive institutional interference which is
both a cause and a consequence of new policy planning and
application.
Summing up the discussion of the above perspectives, it can be
argued that the common ground between the aforementioned
theoretical schemata lies on the ascertainment that exurban land
use conversions and modifications are advancing at a high rate
(McCarthy, 2005, 2008). To some theorists, those changes are
circumstantial or adventitious reactions of invested capital on rural
areas in order to protect and insure its reproduction (Evans et al.,
2002). Therefore, the current trajectories of rural land use changes
could rapidly shift to new directions due to changes in the global
economic environment. On the other hand, a growing body of
arguments suggest that emerging land use patterns rely on deeper
and stable changes in fundamental characteristics of society in terms
of people's attitude towards natural environment (Inglehart, 1990;
Buttel, 2000). However, what is truly happen in the rural land use
systems is still a matter of concern and an issue for study and
evaluation. In sections that follow, we attempt to produce empirical
evidences on some of the theoretical arguments commented above in
the case of recent forest land use changes in Greece.
Following the literature review on deforestation, it can be said that
a variety of economic and social forces might work competitively or
additively towards the configuration of land use patterns across the
459
regions of a country (Verburg et al., 2002, 2004, 2006). Underneath,
we make an attempt to connect all important aspects of deforestation
inquiry in a coherent conceptual framework. The process of forest
conversion and modification on the regional level is presented
schematically in Fig. 1.
The underlying causes of forest land use change vary from locality
to locality as well as amongst countries (Wood and Skole, 1998;
Lambin et al., 2001; GLP, 2005). These economic, socio-cultural and
political forces are capable of impacting negatively or positively the
extent and distribution of forest land. Their influence on forests
usually results in quantitative as well as qualitative changes. Both
conversions and structural habitat modifications are of great
importance to policy makers. Reality is even more complex because
there are usually linkages and interactions between positive and
negative factors of change (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). The likely
aggregate outcome of the combining action of negative and positive
factors is difficult to understand and predict. However, it may be more
feasible to identify some dynamic processes through which socioeco-
nomic and political factors operate resulting in distinct patterns of
land uses. In this respect we propose urban sprawl, location decisions
of critical economic activities such as tourism, agricultural expansion
and agricultural abandonment as the main trajectories of forest land
use change. In the sections that follow, we make an attempt to move
from conceptual framework to empirical inquiry by identifying an
empirical model along with the likely variables that hold some
important potential of explaining recent deforestation processes in
Greece. Some of the aforementioned theoretical schemata are tested
and commented upon.
3. Empirical analysis
3.1. Study area
Greece consists of 13 administrative regions, which are further
subdivided into 51 prefectures (Fig. 2). The country covers a total area
of some 131,957,4 km2. The mainland part of the country marks the
end of the Balkan Peninsula whereas the insular part (about 3,000
both habited and inhabited islands situated in the Aegean Sea as well
as the Ionian Sea) borders with Asia and Africa continents. Coastline
stretches for approximately 15,000 km. The country's population is
approximately 11 million people with 72.8% staying in urban areas
and the remaining 27.2% being rural population. In mountainous areas
lives 9.2% of the population, whereas in semi-mountainous and urban
areas the figures are 21.8% and 69.0% respectively. Agriculture and
pastoral uses cover 49.5% of country's surface, forests, shrub and bare
land cover 47.2%, inland water 1.3% and urban and other artificial
surfaces cover 2.0% (NSSG, 2004b).
Geomorphologically speaking, most of the mainland territory
consists of mountains. Just a few major agricultural plains exist the
largest of which is placed in central Greece in the administrative
boundaries of the Thessaly region. The country has a Mediterranean-
type of climate with high temperatures and very little rainfalls in the
summer. However, the area has relatively mild winters. The most
common plant communities include forests of broadleaf evergreen
trees, oak woodlands, sclerophyllic bushes of maquis and garrigue. On
most of the insular areas maquis communities may be the climax.
However, in the mainland parts of the country this type of vegetation
has usually been the outcome of forest dislocation and overexploitation.
3.2. Variables selection
A total of 10 variables describing economic, social and physical
characteristics were employed for the empirical analysis. As a
referencing spatial unit for statistical analysis it was used the
prefectural administrative level which corresponds to NUTS III level
of Eurostat. The selection of independent variables relied on both the
460 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472

Fig. 1. Forest land use conversion and modification process.

relative availability of data and the literature review on deforestation In the beginning, we started with a “logical” model of the
factors presented earlier. Certain country-specific processes regarding phenomenon and then we subtracted some independent variables
mostly building activity (e.g. informal housing) were taken into based on significance level as well as on logical hypotheses on the way
consideration. those independent variables affect the dependent variable, keeping

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of deforestation rates in Greece.

 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472 461

always in mind not to perform a lot of mechanical applications
because this could affect the regression results. Unless we wanted to
test some theory or a critical hypothesis, we dropped the non-
significant variables with a p-value of more than 0.25 making the
model more parsimonious. One such variable used in the original
model but not included later on was the total area burned by forest
fires in each prefecture. It was found to be highly correlated with the
variable representing informal housing activity (X10). We decided to
drop the first variable from the model because forest fire is the means
of changing the use of land whereas building a house is the real
purpose of changing it. Some additional variables used in the original
model were: (a) the geographical zone of each prefecture, a variable
that mostly refers to the climatic zone of the prefectures, (b) total
population potential, a variable incorporating both indirect popula-
tion potential and direct population potential and (c) the Mean GDP in
Agriculture. With the chosen link function, the additional variables
mentioned above did not contribute to the model. Table 1 provides an
overview of the explanatory variables that were finally employed in
the analysis of deforestation in Greece for the period 1990–2000.
3.2.1. Deforestation: the dependent variable
Data for estimating changes in total area covered by forests
between 1990 and 2000 at the prefectural level were derived from
two surveys of NSSG (NSSG, 1995, 2004b). The observed changes are
expressed by the ratio of the amount of forest land for the year 1990 to
the amount of forest land for the year of 2000 in each prefecture. The
original data were transformed in order to be compatible because the
NSSG used different classification categories for recording forest land
in the aforementioned surveys.
Clearly, this raises some questions regarding data quality. Two
sources of potential errors may exist. Firstly, the recording processes
themselves employed by NSSG might have failed to identify the exact
area in each prefecture covered by forests both during the 1990 and
2000 surveys. Almost all recording methods have merits and flaws.
Such errors are likely to change the actual order of prefectures across
the range of values of the continuous variable (rate of deforestation)
creating a misleading pattern. Secondly, the difference in classification
categories between surveys of 1990 and 2000 is also likely to have
affected the actual value of deforestation rate because one compares
in the deforestation ratio similarly but not identically produced data
sets. Bearing in mind the above considerations, it seems highly risky
using the continuous values of the variable in a statistical analysis.
Therefore, because the data were considered to be of questionable
quality we decided to treat the dependent variable as a categorical
and not as a continuous one. The advantage of constructing broad
categories of deforestation is that even relatively large errors during
the recording procedure do not affect the results decisively. Adjacent
prefectures across the range of values of the continuous variable are
classified in the same category assigned a code value. In this way,
neither the exact ordering of prefectures nor the actual value of
deforestation can decisively affect the results of multivariate
statistical analysis. The drawback, however, is that the new categorical
variable is less informative than the original continuous one. The
categories of the dependent variable in which the prefectures where
classified according to their rate of forest land use change were the
following:
• Category 1: prefectures with low deforestation rate (+0.86)
• Category 2: prefectures with medium deforestation rate (0.81–0.85)
• Category 3: prefectures with high deforestation rate (0.71–0.80)
• Category 4: prefectures with very high deforestation rate (b0.70)
Fig. 2 is a representation of the spatial distribution of deforestation
rate during the study period across the spatial units of the country. It is
obvious that several insular locations in the Aegean as well as the

Table 1
Description of the variables used in the ordinal regression model.

Variable Symbol Description Unit/scale of Data source/years or range associated to each

measurement variable

Dependent variable
Rate of deforestation Y The ratio of the area covered by forests at the prefectural Dimensionless (NSSG, 1995, 2004b)
level in 1990 to the corresponding area in 2000 Ratio converted to 1990, 2000
ordinal

Independent variables
Urban sprawl X1 The ratio of the number of buildings constructed outside the Dimensionless (NSSG, 1994, 2004a)
formal city and town borders in each prefecture to the total Ratio 1990–2000
number of building in that prefecture, up to the year 2000.
Geographical X2 Binary factor with a value of 1 in case of an insular prefecture Island or Mainland NSSG (2004b)
character or a value of 2 in case of a mainland prefecture Nominal Not applicable
Change in rural X3 The ratio of rural population in each prefecture for the Dimensionless (NSSG, 1999, 2004b)
population year 2001 to the rural population for the year 1991. Ratio 1991, 2001
Indirect population X4 Indicator of accessibility of each prefecture in relation Citizens/min− 1.5 (Ministry of Economy & Finance, 1993; NSSG,
potential to the rest of the prefectures. 2004b; Polyzos and Arabatzis, 2006)
Interval 2001
Urban plan expansion X5 The total area per 100 residents incorporated within the Stremmasa/100 YPEHODE (2006)
boundaries of towns and cities in each prefecture for residents
the period 1995–2003. Ratio 1995–2003
New legal housing activity X6 The area in square meters per resident added to the existing m2/resident NSSG (2006)
building area stock for the period 1997–2000 Ratio 1997–2000
Prosperity level X7 The contribution of each prefecture to the GNP of Greece Complex unit of (Petrakos and Polyzos, 2005)
and to GNP per capita in € as well as in Purchasing measurementb
Power Standards (PPS) Interval 2000
Change in GDP in X8 The change in the percentage with which the GDP in agriculture Dimensionless AllMedia (2006)
agriculture in each prefecture contributes to the formation of GDP in Ratio 1990,2000
agriculture for the whole country for the period 1990–2000
Change in hotel beds X9 The ratio of the number of hotel beds for the year 1991 to Dimensionless AllMedia (2006)
the number of hotel beds for the year of 2001 in each prefecture Ratio 1991, 2001
Informal housing activity X10 Total number of legalised housing units per 1000 residents Legalized buildings / NSSG (2006)
per prefecture for the period 1997–2006 1000 residents
Ratio 1997–2006
a
1 Stremma = 1000 m2.
b
Complex unit of measurement not holding any importance for the purpose of the present analysis.
462 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
Ionian archipelagos present high deforestation levels. As regards the
mainland prefectures of the country, there are several non-costal
prefectures (e.g. Kozani, Kilkis, Florina, Grevena) that have high or
very high deforestation rates. On the other hand, most of the highly
urbanised prefectures (e.g. Attiki, Achaia, Magnesia) show low or
medium deforestation rates.
3.2.1.1. Urban sprawl. The dominant development pattern of the old
cities and towns in Greece used to be the compact one but over the
past 50 years the density of residents per unit of area has declined
considerably. Historically speaking, the configuration of housing
areas in Greece was mostly driven by the unorganised individual
attempts of people to shelter themselves by own means rather than
a coherent long-term strategy by the state for providing housing
space to the population (Leontidou, 1989; Leontidou et al., 2001;
Lavvas, 2002; Mellisas, 2007). In contemporary times, the produc-
tion of urban space has still been relying on individuals' actions
despite of the existence of a great variety of planning tools and
incentives at least at the institutional level. As a result, per capita
land consumption increases steadily and urban land uses are
randomly sprawling into the countryside without following an
intended and well-designed pattern.
Moving outside of the borders of the formal urban plans poses great
pressures on the natural environment resulting in habitat shrinking as
well as forest and agricultural land uses conversion and modification.
Numerous studies on land use change consider urban sprawl as a major
driver of deforestation (Walker, 2001). However, it is not clear whether
the outwards sprawl of urban forms takes place mainly on agricultural
land or on forest land in Greece. Therefore, we set to examine whether
urban sprawl impacted forest resources during the study period or
instead, only the agricultural land was affected.
3.2.1.2. Geographical character. According to the coding scheme of this
variable, the 51 administrative units of the country have been
allocated into 2 groups. The first group includes the insular
prefectures whereas the second group incorporates the remaining
mainland prefectures. By using this variable we investigate whether
the geographical character of a prefecture has an effect on defores-
tation rate. During the last few decades, insular areas in Greece have
been exposed to intense developmental pressures which primarily
derive from tourism related activities. At the same time, both the ratio
of forest to non-forest land and the actual extent of forest areas on
islands, are of the lowest compared to the rest of the prefectures of the
country. Due to limited geographical space, insular forest resources
are much more vulnerable to developmental pressures. Therefore, we
expect that deforestation possesses will be more acute in the case of
insular spatial units.
3.2.1.3. Change in rural population. The variable representing rural
population dynamics is entered in the model in order to assess the
influence on deforestation of contemporary rural demographic pro-
cesses. Bearing in mind that the past phenomenon of rural-urban
migration has long been ceased in Greece, we want to investigate the
influence of the opposite process of rural rebound. As reported in a part
of the relevant literature (Dahms and McComb, 1999; Brown et al.,
2005), population-driven land use changes can be the outcome of
population migration towards the rural areas (demographic rural
rebound). In the case of Greece, when the country got into the developed
stage, post war massive rural-urban migration movements phased out
and a reverse process of people seeking dwelling in exurban rural
locations started. The massive growth of tourism related activities as well
as the provision of new public infrastructures (transportation infra-
structures, health and education facilities etc), resulted in the improve-
ment of standards of living and the creation of additional employment
opportunities. Several insular and coastal regions in Greece, have
managed to increase their populations during the study period.
3.2.1.4. Indirect population potential. Indirect population potential is a
measure of the level of accessibility of each prefecture to the rest of
the prefectures of the country. Geographical space, transportation
infrastructures and time, play an important role in shaping people's
preferences as to where to live and work. Therefore, space-time
accessibility is intimately connected to land use patterns. We use this
indicator because, very often, changes in the use of land in a location
are generated by people who live and work away from that location.
Residents of large urban concentrations may sometime choose to
build houses or undertake other forms of land use transformations in
adjacent prefectures. As regards housing activity, this tendency is
known as secondary and/or vacation housing and happens across the
country in many instances (e.g. dwellers of Thessaloniki build
vacation houses in Pieria or Chalkidiki whereas dwellers of Athens
prefer the coastal part of Korintia and the island of Evia to place their
secondary houses). The indicator of indirect population potential has
been estimated by using the following equation (Clark et al., 1969;
Keeble et al., 1982):
50 Pj
IPPi = ∑ ð1Þ
j=1 Daij
where:
IPPi The indirect population potential of region i.
Pj The population of region j, where j = 1,…,50 (fifty is the
number of Greek prefectures minus one).
Dij A measure of the time-distance between regions i and j.
α The superscript α is a measure of distance “friction”.
For the purpose of the present study, the α component is set to 1.5,
a value suitable for movements of general purpose (Wang, 2000; Luo
and Wang, 2003). Data for this variable come from the NSSG (2004b),
Polyzos and Arabatzis (2006) and the Ministry of Economy and
Finance (Ministry of Economy & Finance, 1993).
3.2.1.5. Urban plans expansion per 100 residents between 1995 and
2003. This variable represents the expansion of urban plans in each
prefecture for the period from 1995 to 2003. During that period, the
area that was incorporated within the boundaries of towns and cities
was partly for meeting the demand of that time for urban
developable land and partly for legalising build-up areas of informal
housing units that were constructed during the early 90s. This
variable was estimated by using unpublished data from the Ministry
for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works (YPE-
HODE, 2006). The procedure for expanding urban plans is complex
and also takes several years to finish. Amongst others, it involves the
decision of initiating the process of expansion, the production of
several studies and plans, consultation with the relevant authorities
and the public and the final decision on the expansion. So, we
considered the expansions that the process started after 1990 up to
1997 under the provisions of Law 1337/1983. The procedures for
these expansions were finished between 1995 and 2003. After 1997,
the expansions of urban plans were conducted under the provisions
of Law 2508/1997. With the new legal framework in place, the first
applications for new expansions were submitted after 1999. The
intention behind the use of this particular explanatory variable was
to evaluate whether the supply of new buildable land through
formal planning procedures had a significant effect on lowering
antagonism between forest and urban land uses or it was insufficient
in halting deforestation due to urban expansion.
3.2.1.6. Legal housing activity per resident for the period 1997–2000.
The indicator of legal housing activity in each prefecture depicts the
area in square meters per resident added to the existing building
stock for the period 1997–2000. This area was added through the legal
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
procedure of issuing a building licence prior to undertaking construction
works. The approved construction works were materialised either
within the formal town and city urban plans or outside these plans in the
countryside provided that all legal requirements (e.g. sufficient size of
land-plots etc) had been met. As long as forests have a strong degree of
protection under the Hellenic Constitutional Principal (articles 24 and
117, 1975/86/00) “forest use change only for the public interest and only
in cases in which the public interest cannot be accommodated for by
alternative means that do not include forest land use change”, the legal
housing activity cannot directly affect forest resources in a negative way.
Any observed negative association should be due to indirect detrimental
effects of legal housing such as increased possibility for accidental forest
fires etc. However, this would mean, that despite the fact of being legal
on institutional terms, this particular housing activity has not yet been
sustainable, threatening forest resources through indirect detrimental
effects. The data for this variable come from the NSSG (2006).
3.2.1.7. Prosperity level. The prosperity indicator has been estimated
by using the official data at the prefectural level by Eurostat
concerning the contribution of each prefecture to the GNP of Greece
and to GNP per capita in € as well as in Purchasing Power Standards
(PPS). Due to the fact that the per capita GNP cannot give a safe
estimation of the prosperity in the NUT II and III levels, they have
also been incorporated into the variable additional financial and
development indicators concerning the levels of consumption as
well as public infrastructure in each prefecture. The data concerning
this variable come from a previous study by Petrakos and Polyzos
(2005). As it was mentioned earlier, in the context of forest
transition theory several researchers argue that in the long run the
relationship between deforestation and prosperity level tents to be
negative meaning that as the prosperity level raises the rate of
deforestation drops. By introducing this variable in the empirical
model we attempt to investigate whether the level of human
prosperity in each prefecture is connected to increased forest land
use changes or the observed changes do not depend on the level of
economic development of each prefecture.
3.2.1.8. Changes in GDP in agriculture. This variable represents the
change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in agriculture to the
Gross National Product (GNP) in agriculture for the period from
1990 to 2000 at the prefectural level. The relevant changes were
estimated by using the following formula:
. characteristics and can be classified into certain general categories.
AgriGDPi−1990
AgriGNP1990
AgriGDPi−2000
 ð2Þ
AgriGNP2000
where,
AgriGDPi_1990 The mean GDP in agriculture in the years 1989, 1990,
1991 for prefecture i
AgriGNP1990 The mean GNP in agriculture in the years 1989, 1990,
1991 for the country
AgriGDPi_2000 The mean GDP in agriculture in the years 1989, 1990,
1991 for prefecture i
AgriGNPi_2000 The mean GNP in agriculture in the years 1999, 2000,
2001 for the country
As the share of GDP in agriculture of a spatial unit to the GNP in
agriculture increases, agricultural activities in that area would either
expand or become more profitable through the introduction of
innovations, new technologies and cultivation practices. Bearing in
mind that the relevant statistical data revile a reduction in agricultural
land in all 51 prefectures in Greece, we could hypothesize that
increased profitability in agriculture would probably been the
463
outcome of structural changes in the primary sector and not due to
expansion of agricultural land into forestland. If this is the case, then
we expect to observe a negative relationship between deforestation
and change in GDP in agriculture meaning that any improvement in
the economic results of agricultural sector would had no adverse
effects on the extend of forest land.
3.2.1.9. Changes in hotel beds for the period 1994–2000. Several
environmental problems such as extensive deforestation are fre-
quently associated with the development of tourism activities.
Deforestation and forest degradation are in many instances the result
of increased, tourism-driven demand for land plots located in areas
with specific high-quality natural characteristics. Part of the relevant
literature on the environmental impacts of tourism (Campbell et al.,
2000; Gossling, 2002) suggests that areas with natural characteristics
of outstanding quality are more likely to receive increased pressure
from tourism related activities. The economic forces of tourism
market through utility maximization procedures are likely to result in
unsustainable development patterns where natural qualities are
degraded.
In the context of the present research, the likely linkages between
tourism activity and change in forest resources are investigated by
incorporating into the statistical analysis an indicator of tourism
infrastructure as well as tourism demand. Assuming that the variable
“changes in hotel bed” reflects both the magnitude of new tourism
infrastructure for the period under investigation as well as the
demand for vacations in Greece, we look into the impacts of tourism
on forests on the prefectural scale of analysis. Changes in hotel beds
are expressed by the ratio of the number of hotel beds for the year
1990 to the number of hotel beds for the year of 2000 in each
prefecture. Modern tourism infrastructure results in profound
changes to the landscape especially on the coastal and insular
locations. We expect that large changes in tourism hotel infrastruc-
ture might have a detrimental effect on forests.
3.2.1.10. Informal housing activity. Informal settlements in Greece form
a complex issue. This particular strategy of constructing housing units
is associated with a population of a wide variety of social and
economic backgrounds. Therefore, informal housing units do not have
the same characteristics everywhere and the quantification of the real
magnitude of the phenomenon is an extremely difficult task
(Maloutas, 2000). However, the individual cases share some common
One such category concerns houses created by low-income house-
holds that they are scattered all over the country both close to urban
centres and in ex-urban areas. A second category is made up by luxury
vacation or secondary houses, placed close to the coastal zone or to
remote rural locations. Finally, a third category encompasses the
remaining cases such as illegal business buildings of the primary
sector (e.g. farm buildings), the secondary sector (e.g. small family
manufacturing companies) as well as the tertiary sector (tourism-
related buildings).
We introduce this particular variable into the analysis attempting
to investigate whether or not illegal housing phenomenon has an
association with the observed forest land use changes. If such a
relation is present, then it could be asserted that despite the
existence of certain pieces of legislation that prohibit the construc-
tion of housing units on forest land, the production of an important –
but still difficult to quantify – part of urban space is taking place on
forest land undermining local communities' prospects of sustainable
development.
For estimating informal housing activity, we have used data on
informal housing units that entered into the legalisation process during
the period from 1997 to 2006. This time period of data set was chosen in
such a way as to refer to land use changes between 1990 and 2000.We
have chosen to cover this period assuming that most of these housing
464 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472

Table 2 Table 3
Test of parallel linesc. Model fitting informationa.

Model − 2 log likelihood Chi-square df Sig. Model − 2 log likelihood Chi-square df Sig.

H0: null hypothesisd 79,540 Intercept Only 140,222 – – –

General 54,838a 24,702b 28 0.644 Final 79,540 60,682 14 0.000
a
The log-likelihood value cannot be further increased after maximum number of
Pseudo R-square Goodness-of-fit
step-halving.
b Cox and snell 0.696 Chi-square df Sig.
The chi-square statistic is computed based on the log-likelihood value of the last
Nagelkerke 0.743 Pearson 228,888 136 0.000
iteration of the general model. Validity of the test is uncertain.
c McFadden 0.433 Deviance 79,540 136 1.000
Link function: Cauchit.
d a
The null hypothesis states that the location parameters (slope coefficients) are the Link function: Cauchit.
same across response categories.

units were built in the 90s – therefore causing land use changes in that
period – but they were legalised later on. In particular, there is usually a
time-gap of several years between constructing an illegal house and
getting detected by the authorities. Taking into account the new Greek
city planning law of 1997 (Act 2508/1997), we considered the illegal
housing units recorded after 1997 up to 2006. Most of these had been
constructed in the 90s and not earlier, changing the use of land at that
period. This is true if we bear in mind that, from 1983 to 1987 there was
made a huge effort by the Greek state (Law 1337/1983) to record and
legalise most illegal housing units constructed after 1955 throughout
the country (the so-called Urban Planning Reformation). Therefore, the
majority of illegal buildings constructed up to the late 80s, had already
been recorded by the authorities. Finally, we also assume that the
legalised housing units which are only a fraction of the total informal
housing activity in Greece, are proportional to the ones that still remain
illegal. Data for this variable come from the relevant annual building
activity tables published by NSSG (NSSG, 2006).
3.3. Model description
subcategory within the land-use type of investigation (e.g.
low deforestation, medium deforestation, high deforestation,
very high deforestation).
Y The response variable, which takes integer values from 1 to j.
γij The cumulative response probability up to and including
Y = j at subpopulation i.
Xk The k predictor variables associated with the observed
changes in the dependent variable.
αj The intercept of the regression equation or threshold for
each cumulative probability. The index j refers to the
subcategory within each land-use type.
βk The coefficients of the predictor variables or else the
locations of the model. The threshold αj and the regression
coefficient βk are unknown parameters to be estimated by
means of the maximum likelihood algorithm.
Πij The cell probability corresponding to Y = j at subpopulation i.
Having chosen the Cauchit link the general model is written as
following:

The relationships between deforestation and its likely driving factors

 k

are evaluated by using an ordinal regression model. This methodology has tan π γij −0:5 = αj − ∑ βk Xk ð4Þ
n=1
not been used as often as polychotomous logistic regression or other types
of multivariate statistical models in land use studies. However, there are
In the present study the event of deforestation has been defined as
some relevant applications in the international literature that have been
following:
useful in understanding certain aspects of land use change processes. A
relative application has been conducted by Fu et al. (2006) in order to k
evaluate changes in agricultural landscape pattern between 1980 and ω1 = tan ½π½probðdeforestation≤lowÞ−0:5 = α1 − ∑ βk Xk ð5Þ
n=1
2000 in the Loess hilly region of Ansai County, China. A second application
was conducted by Rutherford et al. (2007). They applied both multinomial k
and ordinal regression models in the investigation of patterns of ω2 = tan ½π½probðdeforestation≤lowÞ−0:5 = α2 − ∑ βk Xk ð6Þ
successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. n=1

Ordinal regression can take into consideration and introduce into

the calculations some of that extra information in the ordinal scale of
the response variable (Norusis, 2004). Therefore, the methodology
can be used to analyse the degree of change of a particular land-use
(low, medium or high change) when it is not possible to capture this
by a continuous variable or proxy. There are five different link functions
that can be used in the construction of an ordinal regression model
depending on the escalation of the response variable's cumulative
probability (Norusis, 2004; SPSS, 2007). We use the Cauchit link function
(reverse Cauchy) because the escalation in cumulative probability of the
dependent variable increases from 0 fairly rapidly, then slows down and
finally accelerates when it approaches 1. The Cauchit link takes the form
link (γij) = tan (π(γij − 0.5)). The ordinal regression model instead of
considering the probability of an individual event occurring, it estimates
the probability of that event and all events that are ordered before it. The
general model for ordinal regression is:

 k j
link γij = αj − ∑ βk Xk with γij = ProbðY≤jjxi Þ = ∑ πil ð3Þ
n=1 l=1
where,
link (γij) The abovementioned Cauchit link. The index j refers to the
k
ω3 = tan ½π½probðdeforestation≤highÞ−0:5 = α3 − ∑ βk Xk ð7Þ
n=1
Because it is often the case that the magnitude of several spatial
phenomena such as deforestation depends not only on the operation of
some single factors but on the joint action of two or more factors at the
appropriate levels, we have also decided to add some interaction terms to
the model. In this way we investigate the likely joint effects of some
variables on deforestation over and above their separate effects. The first
interaction term introduced into the model involves the variables of
indirect population potential and informal housing activity. In a spatiotem-
poral context, informal housing activity is not always and everywhere
forest damaging. “Soft” construction illegalities such as building more
stores and space on the ground than the building licence permits, do not
affect negatively forest resources at list as much as “hard” construction
illegalities like building housing units directly on forest land. In addition,
according to forest transition theory, during initial stages of development
forest resources are affected more than in later stages of development. By
introducing this interaction term in the analysis we wanted to investigate
the hypothesis that when accessibility improves multiplying opportuni-
ties for development in a locality, the kind of development performed at
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
initial stages is environmentally unsustainable and thus damaging to
forest resources as proposed by forest transition theory.
The second interaction term introduced into the model involves the
variables of urban sprawl and change in tourism accommodation
infrastructure. In Greece, the building industry is a significant driver of
both economic growth and land use change. However, not all kinds of
sprawling urban forms have the same harmful effects on forest habitats in
terms of land use change. Industrial buildings and blocks of apartments
need not be located close to natural resources such as forests. Contrarily,
it is common that tourism accommodation infrastructures opt for
situating in environmentally advantageous location, usually close to
Mediterranean coastal forests. Therefore, we attempt to test the
hypothesis that certain qualitative characteristics of sprawl are likely
to make it much more harmful to forest land uses. If we take into
account that the final model included 10 explanatory variables as well
as the above mentioned interaction terms, then the model can be
defined as following:
tan ½π½probðscore≤categry→jÞ−0:5 = αj
ðβ1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 X3 + ::::
+ β10 X10 + γ1 X4 *X10 + γ2 X1 *X9 Þ
ð8Þ
3.4. Model fitting information
Some summary statistics of the model are presented in Appendix
A. In particular, it can be seen the coding scheme and the selected cut-
points for the dependent as well as all categorical explanatory
variables, the number of prefectures that fall into each individual
category of the categorical variables and the marginal and cumulative
percentages. When using an ordinal regression model, there is a strict
assumption that has to be made. This is the parallel lines assumption.
That is to say, the regression coefficients are equal for all
corresponding outcome categories. Therefore, it is extremely impor-
tant to carry out the test of parallel lines and if the assumption fails,
the multinomial logistic regression model can be used as an
alternative model. The test of parallel lines compares the estimated
model with a single set of coefficients for all categories to a model
with a separate set of coefficients for each category. Table 2 presents
the test of parallelism namely the assumption that the regression
coefficients are the same for all four categories of deforestation. As we
can see, the assumption of parallelism cannot be rejected because the
level of statistical significance for the general model is 0.644.
Therefore, we sustain the null hypothesis that the location parameters
are the same across the response categories.
Table 3 presents the Pearson and Devience Goodness-of-Fit
measures. The observed significance levels are 0.000 and 1.000
respectively. These values are unusual, meaning that the model's
algorithm was disrupted during the calculation of the measures. The
probability of disruption is high when there are many empty cells in
the crosstabulations of the model. Therefore, we should not rely on
these measures because the number of empty cells in the model's
crosstabulations was large due to the use of several continuous
dependent variables (there was a warning in the output of the model
that there were 153 or 75.0% cells with zero frequencies). As regards
the overall-model test of the null hypothesis that the location
coefficients for all of the predictor variables in the model are zero, it
yields a significance level lower than 0.01. Therefore, we can
determine that the intercept-only model does not perform better
than the model with the predictors. This is an important test because
the change in the likelihood ratio has a chi-square distribution even
when there are cells with small observed and predicted counts
(Norusis, 2004). Finally, the pseudo-R2 measures evaluate the success
of the model in explaining the variations in the data which is an
indication of the strength of associations between the response
465
variable and the independent variables. The pseudo R2 for McFadden
(0.433), Cox and Snell (0.696), and Nagelkerke (0.743) can be
considered satisfactory as the values of pseudo-R2 measures are
almost always much smaller than the R2 of a linear regression model
(Norusis, 2004). Therefore, the interpretation of pseudo-R2 needs to
be careful.
Finally, the confusion matrix that follows (Table 4) provides a
summary of the predictive ability of the empirical model. As we can
see, in the first category of low deforestation prefectures the correctly
assigned spatial units are 10 out of 12 or 83.3%. In the second and third
categories (medium and high deforestation) the correctly assigned
cases are 6 out of 10 and 9 out of 15 respectively. As regards the final
category of very high deforestation, the model assigned correctly
100% of the cases. Therefore, the overall predictive ability of the model
is very high especially at the first and four categories.
4. Results and discussion
Table 5 presents the parameter estimates, standard error, Wald
statistic, significance level and the lower and upper bound of 95%
confidence interval. Overall, the estimates indicate that population-
related variables and indicators of economic activity had a strong
influence on forest resources during the ‘90s in Greece. Yet, the
unfoldment of the particular relationships has created a highly
complex pattern.
In particular, the regression coefficient for “Urban Sprawl” (X1)
appears to have a negative sign for the first and second category;
however, the level of statistical significance is satisfactory only for the
first category. The negative sign of the first category indicates that the
prefectures with low values of urban sprawl are much less likely to
present high deforestation rates than the prefectures where urban
sprawl is high. In other words the results indicate that high rates of
deforestation are associated with high values of urban sprawl.
Therefore, the diffusion of urban land uses outside the formal town
and city boundaries had a negative effect on forests. An increase in
urban sprawl can result either directly to the decrease of forest land
due to encroachment of such areas for building housing units or
through the deterioration of natural environment due to wildfires or
other detrimental acts. Urban sprawl, usually, increases land values
and population density creating the necessary conditions for forest
land use conversion and modification.
However, the ordinal regression model has an interaction term
between urban sprawl and the explanatory variable depicting
“change in hotel beds”. The coefficient of the term is statistically
significant (p-value = 0.053) for the first category and therefore,
simple and interaction effects of the model should be interpreted
together. Bearing in mind that, the actual influence of urban sprawl
on deforestation rate should be estimated be using the following
mathematical equation:
∂Y
= β1 + γ2 * X9 ð9Þ
∂X1
Appendix B contains the results of the calculation for the actual
relationship between deforestation and urban sprawl under the
influence of the variable that depicts changes in tourism accommo-
dation infrastructure in each prefecture. In regions where both urban
sprawl and the change in tourism accommodation infrastructure are
low, the regression coefficient has a negative sign meaning that these
areas are less likely to have their forest resource depleted than the
areas with high urban sprawl and a low rate of change in tourism
accommodation. However, there is a turning point in the rate of
change in tourism accommodation infrastructure (value of 1.38) over
which the regression coefficient changes sign and becomes negative.
This means that the regions with low urban sprawl but with high
increase in tourism accommodation are more likely to present a high
466 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472

Table 4 As regards the variable that depicts the geographical character of

Confusion matrix. regions, we can see that the relevant regression coefficient has a
Rate of Predicted response category Total negative sign for mainland regions. This means that the mainland
Deforestation regions are less likely to present a high deforestation rate than the
Low Medium High Very high
insular ones. It seems that at least during the study period, insular
Low N 10 1 1 0 12
forest areas received greater pressure for changing their use or they
% 83.3%a 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 100.0%
Medium N 1 6 3 0 10 were proved more vulnerable in such changes. Environmentally
% 10.0% 60.0%a 30.0% 0.0% 100.0% speaking, this is extremely important if we take into account that the
High N 3 2 9 1 15 insular regions in Greece are low forest cover areas. In the case of
% 20.0% 13.3% 60.0%a 6.7% 100.0% islands, the relative scarcity of natural resources such as fresh water,
Very high N 0 0 0 14 14
% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%a 100.0%
fertile cultivated areas and available open land combined with the low
Total N 14 9 13 15 51 resistance of Mediterranean costal forest ecosystems to respond to
% 27.5% 17.6% 25.5% 29.4% 100.0% external pressures, pose certain constraints to the types of develop-
a
Percentage of correctly assigned cases by the model. ment that the insular regions could sustain. The potential for
economic growth through the expansion of existing and the
establishment of new firms is close-related to the existing land uses,
deforestation rate than the areas with high urban sprawl. In these to the total available space and to the applied development policies. In
areas (e.g. Zakynthos), despite the fact of low urban sprawl during the such spatial units, the stages proposed by forest transition theory may
study period, the growth in tourism infrastructure seems to be not be applicable. In a small or medium-sized spatial unit, when the
unsustainable in respect to forest resources. Generally speaking, it can rate of deforestation is high and the detected land use changes are
be said that low urban sprawl is associated with low deforestation mostly irreversible (e.g. forest to urban uses), then the available time
rate. However, when this low sprawl is mostly due to tourism growth, to policy makers and experts to counteract is limited.
then the deforestation rate raises. It seems that the pattern of tourism The third variable that depicts changes in rural population during
growth during the study period was not sustainable as long as forest the study period has a negative coefficient and a p-value of 0.036. The
areas are concerned. Yet, it is not clear whether the new tourism negative sign indicates that as the population of rural areas increases
accommodation infrastructure was directly developed on forest land the likelihood of getting high rates of deforestation decreases. It seems
or its negative effects on environment were indirect. that rural rebound processes in Greece are associated with low
Coming to the second level of urban sprawl (i.e. medium) we can deforestation rates. It could be said that this is logical if we consider
observe the same pattern. The regions with medium sprawl are less that shortly after the 1983 major urban planning reforms in Greece
likely to present high deforestation rates that the regions with high (Law 1337/1983), there were massive extensions of the existing
urban sprawl. However, when medium urban sprawl is combined formal boundaries of villages as well as small and medium-sized
with extensive growth in tourism infrastructure then these areas are towns. The new available urban land contributed towards both
more likely to have their forest depleted. The above results indicate a lowering the pace of urban sprawl as well as creating a real estate
qualitative feature of urban sprawl. Tourism-related urban sprawl market of affordable developable land plots. These results lead us to
seems to be more harmful to forests than the general sprawl of urban the conclusion that the growth of population in the numerous small
activities. and medium-sized settlements in Greece does not pose serious

Table 5
Parameter estimatesa.

Estimate Std. Wald df Sig. 95% confidence interval

error
Lower bound Upper bound

Threshold
ω1 Forest land use change = [1] − 62,591 25,704 5929 1 0.015 − 112,970 − 12,211
ω2 Forest land use change = [2] − 59,108 24,595 5775 1 0.016 − 107,314 − 10,902
ω3 Forest land use change = [3] − 53,204 22,705 5491 1 0.019 − 97,704 − 8,704

Location
Χ1 Urban sprawl = [1] low − 24,182 11,690 4279 1 0.039 − 47,094 − 1270
– = [2] medium − 7771 6000 1678 1 0.195 − 19,530 3988
– = [3] high 0a . . 0 . . .
Χ2 Geographical character
= [1] (mainland) − 18,220 6968 6837 1 0.009 − 31,877 − 4563
– = [2] (insular) 0a . . 0 . . .
Χ3 Change in rural population − 28,973 13,810 4402 1 0.036 − 56,041 − 1906
Χ4 Indirect population potential 0.247 0.114 4719 1 0.030 0.024 0.470
Χ5 Urban plan expansion 0.892 0.454 3851 1 0.050 0.001 1783
Χ6 New legal housing activity 0.604 0.255 5627 1 0.018 0.105 1103
Χ7 Prosperity level − 0.406 0.192 4461 1 0.035 − 0.782 − 0.029
Χ8 Change in GDP in agriculture − 0.533 1183 0.203 1 0.652 − 2852 1786
Χ9 Change in hotel beds − 14,943 5988 6227 1 0.013 − 26,680 − 3206
Χ10 Informal housing activity 1826 0.790 5337 1 0.021 0.277 3374

2-ways interaction
Χ4 ⁎ Χ10 Indirect population potential ⁎ informal housing activity − 0.061 0.024 6333 1 0.012 − 0.109 − 0.014
Χ1 ⁎ Χ9 Urban sprawl = [1] ⁎ change in hotel beds 17,547 9075 3739 1 0.053 − 0.239 35,333
– Urban sprawl = [2] ⁎ change in hotel beds 7376 4710 2452 1 0.117 − 1856 16,608
– Urban sprawl = [3] ⁎ change in hotel beds 0a . . 0 . . .

Link function: Cauchit.

a
This parameter is set to 0 because it is redundant.
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
problems on the conservation of forest resources. It is worth
mentioning that the definition of non-urban population by the NSSG
refers to those people who live in settlement of a total population of
less than 10,000 individuals. The density of buildings within these
settlements is usually low, and there is also sufficient space for
meeting future demand for housing. Furthermore, the prices of
developable land are relatively medium or even low. Therefore, any
demand for housing due to an increase in population can be satisfied
within the current boundaries of town plans. In such cases, there are
not intense pressures on forest land stock.
The coefficient of Indirect Population Potential (X3) has a positive
sign and it is also significantly different from 0 (p = 0,030) indicating
that this variable is strongly related to the observed changes in forest
land uses during the study period. Accessibility of each prefecture in
relation to the rest of the prefectures does seem to be an important
causal factor of deforestation. The positive sign indicates that as the
indirect population potential increases so do deforestation rates.
Therefore, the prefectures situated in the vicinity of large urban
concentrations seem to be more prone to extensive forest land use
changes. This tendency is usually associated with the construction of
secondary or vacation housing units by the dwellers of large urban
centres to adjacent prefectures. Fig. 3 is a graphical representation of the
relationship between deforestation and per capita vacation houses per
prefecture multiplied by a constant of 100. It is apparent that as
deforestation rates increase so does the median of the variable depicting
vacation houses. It is also evident that the spread of values around the
median drops as deforestation increases.
However, in the ordinal regression model, it was included an
interaction term between indirect population potential and informal
housing activity. Bearing in mind this, the actual influence of indirect
population potential on deforestation rate should be estimated be using
the following mathematical equation:
∂Y
= β4 + γ1 * X10 ð10Þ
∂X4
Appendix B contains the results of the calculations for the actual
relationship between deforestation and indirect population potential
under the influence of the explanatory variable that depicts the
magnitude of informal housing activity in each prefecture. As we can
see, in region with very low informal housing activity the influence of
indirect population potential on deforestation has a positive sign. This
means that in areas with low informal housing activity, as accessibility
improves deforestation increases. However, in regions where infor-
mal housing is relatively high having a value above 4 buildings per
1000 people, then the relationship between indirect population
potential and deforestation becomes negative. The negative sign of
the coefficient means that in those regions as the population potential
increase, deforestation decreases. The abovementioned relationship
needs be more thoroughly examined and therefore we construct
Fig. 4.
The Y axis represents informal housing activity whereas the X axis
depicts the values of indirect population potential. The size of the
cyclical symbol for each prefecture is analogues to the magnitude of
deforestation in that prefecture. According to the total regression
coefficients (simple effect and interaction effect), it appears that for the
prefectures above the red line the relationship between deforestation
and accessibility (i.e. indirect population potential) is that of diagram A.
This relationship suggests that in region where informal housing is high,
as accessibility improves deforestation decreases. On the other hand, for
the prefectures below the red line, the relationship between accessibil-
ity and deforestation is depicted by diagram B. According to this
diagram, in regions with low informal housing activity, as accessibility
improves deforestation increases. Taking into account the spatial
467
configuration of the abovementioned relations as presented in diagrams
C and D, we can make the following comments:
• Most of the prefectures where an A-type relationship is in place (i.e.
negative association between accessibility and deforestation) are
situated in the vicinity of Athens, Thessalonica and Patra, the three
largest urban centers of the country. On the other hand, most of the
prefectures where a B-type relationship is in place (i.e. positive
association between accessibility and deforestation, are situated at
some significant distance of major urbanized areas.
• It appears that in prefectures of high accessibility (e.g. Korintia,
Viotia, Pieria), where informal housing is also high, the rate of
deforestation has started declining. It is possible that in these areas,
forest land use changes occurred during previous periods and at
present, deforestation is declining implying a trajectory analogous
to the one suggested by the later stages of forest transition theory.
However, this conclusion needs to be empirically tested by
analyzing deforestation statistical data for the 70s and 80s.
• On the other hand, it is likely that the most remote prefectures of
lower informal housing activity are presently at a stage of being
“discovered” by the urban populations. It appears that in those
regions as accessibility gets improved, the rate of deforestation
accelerates. According to the results, these regions might be at some
initial stage of forest transition theory.
Next, the variable “Urban Plan Expansion” (X5) has a positive sign
and the relevant p value is 0.050 indicating that the null hypothesis of no
actual relationship between this independent variable and the observed
changes in forest resources can be rejected. The positive sign of the
coefficient implies that the prefectures with extensive expansions of
their urban boundaries are more likely to present high deforestation
rates compared to the ones that urban boundaries expansions were
limited. Bearing in mind that planning urban expansion directly on
forest areas is prohibited by the constitution, it could be argued that the
abovementioned expansions were made in order to organise and
possibly legalise extensive areas of already constructed both legal and
illegal urban developments. In this case, urban planning does not seem
to follow a proper integrated demand and supply management
approach. Land uses are determined largely by market principles
instead of coherent urban planning efforts. These results indicate that
the current urban planning system cannot be considered sustainable, at
least as long as forest resources are concerned.
The indicator of “legal housing activity” (X6) in each prefecture has a
positive and statistically significant coefficient. The positive sign means
that the regions with increased legal housing activity are more likely to
present high deforestation rates. As it was hypothesized earlier, new
legal housing activity cannot directly affect forest resources in a negative
way due to institutional prohibitions. Therefore, it is possible that
despite of the fact of being legal on institutional terms, this particular
housing activity has not been sustainable threatening forest resources
possibly through indirect detrimental effects.
As regards the indicator “Prosperity level” (X7), the regression
coefficient has a negative sign and it is also statistically significant
(p = 0,035). The negative sign indicates that the regions with higher
prosperity level are more likely to present lower deforestation rates
compared to the regions of low prosperity level. These results are in
accordance with the arguments of forest transition theory which states
that, in the long run, as the prosperity level improves, deforestation
decreases. However, in the context of the current model, the observed
low deforestation rate in prosperous prefectures could be a temporary
tendency. In order to arrive to a safer conclusion it is necessary to
analyse the relevant data concerning several previous decades.
In order to determine any likely linkages between agricultural
activity and forest losses, there was introduced into the analysis the
variable “Change in the GDP in agricultural sector” (X8). The relevant
coefficient of the model reveals a negative association with the
dependent variable. However, the level of statistical significance is not
468 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
Fig. 3. Boxplot of per capita vacation houses multiplied by a constant of 100 per prefecture in relation to deforestation rate.
satisfactory and therefore we cannot reject the null hypothesis that this
particular regression coefficient is 0. Hence, we do not have enough
evidence to conclude neither for the existence of a relationship nor for
the likely character and magnitude of it.
The variable representing “Changes in hotel beds”(X9) is negatively
associated with the rate of deforestation and the observed level of
significance is 0.013. The negative sign indicates that the regions with
extensive changes in their tourism accommodation infrastructure are
less likely to experience high deforestation than the regions with low
change in their tourism infrastructure. This means that tourism
development during the study period did not have a significant
detrimental effect on forest resource in tourism orientated regions.
However, there is an interaction effect between “Change in hotel beds”
and “Urban sprawl” that we should take into consideration. Treating
“Change in hotel beds” as the focal independent variable and “Urban
sprawl” as the moderator variable, we can see that the effect of the focal
independent variable on the dependent varies as a function of the
moderator variable. The results of the calculation are presented in
Appendix B and they have been estimated be using the following
mathematical equation:
∂Y
= β9 + γ2 * X1
∂X9
Taking into account the above mentioned interaction contrast we
can say that when urban sprawl is low (having a value of 1) the
regression coefficient of the effect of “Change in hotel beds” on
deforestation, has a positive sign (+2,604). This means that the regions
where urban sprawl is relatively low and at the same time the change in
their hotel beds is high are more likely to present high deforestation
rates than the regions with both high urban sprawl and high change in
their hotel beds infrastructure. Spatially speaking, most of the new
tourism accommodation infrastructure follows a scattered pattern and
it is usually located in ex-urban areas (sprawl development). Therefore,
it seems that when urban sprawl is relatively low but it is mostly due to
new tourism infrastructure then there is a detrimental effect of that
tourism infrastructure on forests. These results reveal a certain trend as
regards deforestation and tourism infrastructure. Several low urban
sprawl regions are remote, less developed area. These areas have started
to attracted significant investments in tourism infrastructure because of
their unspoiled natural environment. However, the host areas have not
have in place a coherent spatial plan for receiving tourism activities in an
organised manner and developing a sustainable tourism sector. At these
initial stages of tourism development the emerging land use patterns
are the product of strong influence of market forces. Environmental
considerations and planning issues are underestimated and as a result
the impacts on forest resources seem to be significant.
Finally, the variable representing “Informal housing activity” (X10)
has a positive coefficient and the observed significance level is 0.021.
The positive sign means that in regions with increased informal
housing activity, the likelihood of having higher deforestation is larger
ð11Þ
compared to the regions with low informal housing activity. It appears
that there are significant adverse impacts on forest resources due to
informal housing phenomenon. Again, this is the simple main effect of
the ordinal regression model. As long as there is a statistically
significant interaction effect between informal housing and indirect
population potential, we should take it into consideration. Appendix B
presents the results of the calculations of the effect of informal
housing (as a focal independent variable) on deforestation under the
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
Fig. 4. Graphical representation of the relationship between deforestation and accessibility under the influence of informal housing activity.

469
470 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472
influence of the moderator variable of indirect population potential.
The calculations have been based on the following formula:
∂Y
= β10 + γ2 * X4 ð12Þ
∂X10
Taking into account the above mentioned interaction contrast we
can make the following comments:
• In prefectures with relatively low indirect population potential (e.g.
Dodekanisos) the sign of regression coefficient for informal housing
is positive implying that as informal housing activity increases so
does deforestation.
• In prefectures with relatively high indirect population potential (e.g.
Arkadia, Evia) the sign of the b-coefficient is negative meaning that
high informal housing activity is associated with lower deforesta-
tion rates.
Spatially speaking, the results indicate a varying relationship
between deforestation and informal housing activity. The areas that
are not very close to large urban concentrations are more likely to
experience deforestation due to informal housing whereas the areas
in the vicinity of urban centres are less likely to have their forests
depleted. This is an odd but interesting spatial pattern which may
implies a qualitative difference in informal housing activity across
space. In particular, a likely explanation for this pattern is that
nowadays, in areas located in the vicinity of large urban concentra-
tions, informal housing activity takes the form of “soft” construction
illegalities (i.e. building more stores and space on the ground than the
building licence permits, building on land plots that are not of a
sufficient size to be buildable as this is stated in the relevant planning
acts, changing the use of existing buildings to illegal uses etc.). In
these cases, forest recourses are not affected negatively, at least in a
direct way. On the other hand, in more remote areas, it appears that
informal housing activity is significantly associated with forest land
use changes. In these areas, construction illegalities are “hard” in
nature and they include the direct (illegal) change of the use of forest
land to urban. The unspoiled natural environment of these areas
attracts investment interest in the form of tourism or second house
infrastructure. As a result, land prices change and the whole areas gets
to a state of unplanned development. This particular process of
development is unsustainable and environmentally harmful resulting
to the degradation of forest ecosystems. However, the aforemen-
tioned patterns need a further, in-depth analysis and evaluation
supported by relevant data sets.
5. Conclusions
This paper has dealt with the likely factors of forest land use
changes in Greece for the period from 1990 to 2000. The impacts of
each driving factor on forest land are evaluated by using ordinal
regression, a methodology that has not been used as often as
polychotomous logistic regression or other types of multivariate
statistical models in land use studies. Effective methodologies for
assessing sustainability of land use planning and investment
allocation decisions on a regional scale are vital. This methodology
has demonstrated that can cope with low quality land use change data
and this is an advantage.
Making informed forest policy decisions is central to achieving
sustainability at a regional level. Prior to formulating certain sustainable
policy objectives and targets, the baseline information which is needed
is the kind of driving forces that influence current forest land use
patterns. Generally speaking, these driving forces are closely associated
with the economic, social and environmental context within which the
regions exist and function. The effects on forest land of the predictor
variables that were employed by this study, while significant in most
regions are still covered with many uncertainties. Some theoretically
interesting explanatory variables have indicated that the effects of
certain processes on land use changes may be important but not always
straightforward.
A synthesis and evaluation of the results brings up some important
issues relevant to the theoretical framework of the empirical analysis. In
particular, a noticeable argument relates to the course of development
of deforestation rate in the long term, when the major competing uses to
forests are urban and not agricultural land uses as it is assumed by
Angelsen's (2007) model in the case of tropical deforestation. It seems
that when the antagonism involves urban and forest land uses and also
the types of forest ecosystems fall into the category of not-productive
forests (as it is the case for most Mediterranean forests) then land-rent
generated by forest uses is unlikely to compensate for the one coming
from urban development of the land. Urban land uses through market
mechanisms will tend to outrage forests. As long as the Greek law is
strongly opposed to the conversion of forest, it seems that, at least in the
short term, the only way of confronting this market-induced process
might be the restructuring of the law enforcement mechanisms.
On the other hand, it seems that in most urban prosperous regions as
well as in their vicinity, deforestation has slowed down, although
additional data need to be analysed. Deforestation moves to more
remote regions as accessibility improves. The empirical analysis has
shown that there are interactions amongst indirect population potential
and illegal housing activity that influence the spatial distribution of
deforestation rate. This complex relationship implies a geographical
transfer and dispersion of illegal housing phenomenon from urbanized
regions to remote, less-urbanized ones. It is likely that urban popula-
tions remain the major source of illegal housing activity; however they
now tend to exercise this activity in longer distances due to accessibility
improvements. If this is the case then deforestation controllers are still
in urban areas even though the impacts of their acts are being
systematically “exported” to other areas. The geographical transfer of
deforestation relieves forests in the places of origin but at the same time,
it escalates pressure on the host areas’ forests.
An additional issue, relevant to the abovementioned argument,
relates to the geographical characteristics of the areas being deforested.
In insular prefectures, land surface is a scare resource and areas covered
with forests are limited. If such spatial units were involved in a lengthy
urban-forest land use antagonism, it would probably be difficult for all
stages of forest transition theory to take place. Due to geographical
remoteness, small-sized insular regions cannot easily base part of their
development on exploiting the land of adjacent regions. Thus, it is
difficult for islands to “export” deforestation processes. Bearing in mind
the scarcity of developable land, high rents associated with urban land
uses, the lack of forest cadastral maps and the insufficient forest law
enforcement mechanisms, it is more likely for insular forests to move to
the direction proposed by the theory of the tragedy of commons rather
than the one proposed by forest transition theory. Even if the country as
a whole managed to increase its forests, there would probably be
winners and losers at the regional scale.
Generally speaking, the results indicate that the spread of urban uses
in the countryside has negatively affected forests either directly or
indirectly during the study period. The improvement of transportation
infrastructure, the expansion of urban plans, urban sprawl, illegal
housing activity and legal building construction activity create a
complex negative background for forests land uses. On the other hand,
changes in GDP in agriculture and change in tourism infrastructure
either have limited or no adverse impacts on forests. In the context of
this particular empirical analysis, it seems that the observed improve-
ment in the performance of agricultural sector in the relevant regions
has not happened to the expense of forests through some expansion of
cultivated land. In addition, new tourism accommodation infrastructure,
possibly due to mandatory environmental impact assessment intro-
duced in the early 90s, had limited negative effects on forests. However,
regions with high growth in their tourism accommodation in ex-urban
areas show significant signs of deforestation.
 D. Minetos, S. Polyzos / Forest Policy and Economics 12 (2010) 457–472 471

In the context of planning a sustainable forest policy, accessibility Appendix B (continued)

(continued)
issues as well as the spatial patterns generated by urban phenomena (b) Estimation of the impact of indirect population potential on deforestation
such as urban sprawl and illegal housing are of crucial importance. At under the influence of informal housing activity
first glance, the improvement in the regional level of prosperity might Kind of relation
Prefecture Total regression coefficient
be associated with lower deforestation rate. However, it is not certain (example) relation
whether this additional prosperity has been achieves in a sustainable
manner. It is likely that improvement in prosperity at some location has Etoloakarnania β4-total = β4 + γ1 ⁎ Χ10 = + 0.247 + Turning point Χ10 → 4
(− 0.061 ⁎ 4) = 0
been achieved in the expense of forests at some other location. These
Chalkidiki β4-total = β4 + γ1 ⁎ Χ10 = + 0.247 + (−) 4 b Χ10 b 14.7
results could guide further research for improving understanding on (− 0.061 ⁎ 6) = − 0.119
spatial processes such as forest land use changes and for rationalizing Chios, Evia β4-total = β4 + γ1 ⁎ Χ10 = + 0.247 + (−) 4 b Χ10 b 14.7
forest-related decision making. Strategic project monitoring and (− 0.061 ⁎ 14.7) = − 0.649
appraisal as well as evaluation of project impacts on land uses can
(c) Estimation of the effect of changes in tourism accommodation infrastructure on
help land planners and land use decision-makers to introduce specific
deforestation under the influence of urban sprawl
environmental protection objectives into land development and
Prefecture Total regression coefficient Kind of relation
planning processes.
(example)

Appendix A Sign Interval

Imathia β9-total = β9 + γ2 ⁎ Χ1 = − 14.943 + (+) Χ1 = 1
17.547 ⁎ 1 = + 2.604
Summary statisticsa. Evia β9-total = β9 + γ2 ⁎ Χ1 = − 14.943 + (−) Χ1 = 2
7.376 ⁎ 2 = − 0.191
Codes Intervals N Marginal Cumulative
and cut- percent percent
(d) Estimation of the impact of informal housing activity on deforestation under
points
the influence of indirect population potential
Rate of [1] = low 0.86+ 12 23.5% 23.5%
Prefecture Total regression coefficient Kind of relation
deforestation [2] = medium 0.81–0.85 10 19.6% 43.1%
(example)
1991–2001 [3] = high 0.71–0.80 15 29.4% 72.5%
[4] = very high b=0.70 14 27.5% 100% Sign Interval
Urban sprawl [1] = low b=3.00 15 29.4% 29.4% Dodekanisos β10-total = β10 + γ1 ⁎ Χ4 = + 1.826 + (+) Χ4 → 3
[2] = medium 3.01–5.00 17 33.3% 62.7% (− 0.061 ⁎ 3) = + 1.643
[3] = high 5.01+ 19 37.3% 100% Zakynthos β10-total = β10 + γ1 ⁎ Χ4 = + 1.826 + (+) 3 b Χ4 b 30
Geographical [1] = mainland Nominal 37 72.5% 72.5% (− 0.061 ⁎ 9) = + 1.277
character prefecture scale Preveza β10-total = β10 + γ1 ⁎ Χ4 = + 1.826 + Turning point Χ4 → 30
[2] = insular Nominal 14 27.5% 100% (− 0.061 ⁎ 30) = 0
prefecture scale Arkadia, Evia β10-total = β10 + γ1 ⁎ Χ4 = + 1.826 + (−) 30 b Χ4 b 107
Valid 51 100.0% – (− 0.061 ⁎ 67) = − 2.261
Missing 0 – –
Total 51 – –
a
Link function: Cauchit.

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