Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486

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Applied Mathematics and Computation

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/amc

Dynamical analysis and perturbation solution of an SEIR

epidemic model q
Xiaoyun Wang a,b,⇑, Lijuan Wei b, Juan Zhang b
a
College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030024, China
b
North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: In this paper we present a kind of technique to obtain the asymptotical solution of an SEIR
SEIR model (where S is the susceptible population, E is the exposed population, I is the infectious pop-
Dynamical analysis ulation and R is the recovered population) epidemic model by employing the method of
Perturbation method perturbation. At first, we investigate the epidemic model by analysing its dynamical behav-
ior. Then, we use the method of perturbation to obtain the analytical solution of the model.
We assign values for parameters and draw figures to observe the magnitude of error of the
perturbation method in a macro view. Finally, we analyse macroscopically the two com-
parison chart on analytical solution and the exact solution, and know that it is feasible
to analyse the solution of the epidemic model by using the perturbation method.
Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

It is well known that the epidemic models of studying transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in population have
been extensively developed. Hawer firstly proposed that the rate of spread of infection was proportional to the product of the
density of susceptible individuals times the density of infectious individuals and studied a discrete-time model for measles.
Sir Ronald Ross [1–3] translated it into a continuous time framework to study the dynamics of malaria of measles between
mosquitoes and humans, and won Nobel prize in 1902. In 1927, Kermark and Mckendrick extended the ideas of Hawer and
Ross and established the threshold theory [4]. Since then, the concept of compartment modeling has been used up to now,
and after several decades, many scholars established various different differential equation models of disease and ecology to
research corresponding disease and ecology analysis.
Now, establishing reasonable differential equations has become an important content in analyzing the epidemiological
characteristics of infectious diseases, which can also provide some useful control measures. For the established differential
equations are often qualitative analysis of the equations, such as the stability of equilibria, bifurcation theory or the steady
state and so on. And there have been a series of mature methods to apply to study them. The majority of applications refer to
epidemic models such as SIR, SEIR, SEIS, SEIRS models and so on, where the population is divided into several subclass
according to the epidemic characteristic: S is the susceptible class, E is the exposed class, I is the infectious class and R is
the recovered class. So far, there have been a lot of researches [5–12] in this area.

q
Project supported by the National Sciences Foundation of Shanxi (2011011002-1), the Postdoctoral Sciences Foundation of China (20100471857) and
the Special Foundation by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (201104653).
⇑ Corresponding author at: College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030024, China.
E-mail address: xywang0708@126.com (X. Wang).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.01.090
0096-3003/Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
480 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486

However, in many cases, we need to understand the model in a certain period of time the state, which was unable to
obtain from the equations of the qualitative analysis. So, we need to study the solution of the model. But, considering that
the majority of the exact solution is not to be obtained easily, here we are more interested in getting their approximate
analytic solutions, which can be solved by the perturbation methods [13].
The perturbation methods [14,15] all rely on there being a parameter in the problem that is relatively small. When using
perturbation methods, one is capable of solving problems that nonlinear problem, which can translate a nonlinear problem
into many linear subproblems and then use the solutions of the first several linear subproblems to approximate the solution
of the nonlinear problem using the perturbation parameter [16]. In recent years, many scholars have done a lot of work,
especially in some nonlinear problems [17–25] and other interdisciplinary issues [26–30]. In 1880s or 1890s, Lindstedt
and Poincare et al. had used the perturbation method to study some problems in celestial mechanics and found the ninth
planet in solar system. After 1950s, the perturbation methods have been a common way to deal with the nonlinear problem.
Now, with the development of technological, it is playing an ever more important role in the astronomy, physics, biology,
chemistry, control theory and so on [31]. And with the application of perturbation methods, it contains more methods, such
as the methods of multiple scales, asymptotic matching, the method of Lindstedt–Poincare, variation of parameter, correc-
tional d approach, homotopy perturbation technique, iterative perturbation method, homotopy analysis and so on. In a
word, the perturbation methods have attracted more and more attention of domestic and abroad academic circles.
However, for epidemic models, there have been a few papers to apply perturbation method to solve and discuss the cor-
responding asymptotic solution directly. In this paper, we propose an SEIR epidemic model, which is obtained by modifying
the model [10]. Li [10] proposed a dynamical model whose birth rate (in proportion to the total population) was the same as
the death rate. In this paper, we change the birth rate into the constant import to obtain SEIR epidemic model. Moreover, we
use qualitative and perturbation methods to discuss behavior of solution, respectively and discuss the veracity of perturba-
tion method in a macro view.

2. Qualitative method

In this section, we propose the dynamical mathematical model. Because the solution of the model cannot be obtained
directly, we can depend on analysing its dynamical behavior: the equilibria, the basic reproduction number and the stability
of the equilibria to see the trend of the solution, especially the trend of the epidemic.

2.1. Mathematical model

In the paper we consider an SEIR model. Letting SðtÞ be the number of susceptible individuals, EðtÞ be the number of
exposed individuals, IðtÞ be the number of infective individuals and RðtÞ be the number of removed individuals at time t.
Using Fig. 1 we formulate the following SEIR model:
This model is a four differential equations system as following:
8 dS
>
> dt
¼ A  eSI  bS þ aR;
>
>
< dE ¼ eSI  ðb þ dÞE;
dt
ð1Þ
>
> dI
¼ dE  ðb þ l þ cÞI;
>
> dt
: dR
dt
¼ cI  ðb þ aÞR;
where 0 < e  1. Let N ¼ S þ E þ I þ R. From the model (1), we can know that
dN
¼ A  bN  lI:
dt
Then,
A
lim sup NðtÞ ¼ :
t!þ1 b
So, we can obtain the positive invariant set of the model (1):

Fig. 1. Transfer diagram.

 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486 481

 
A
C ¼ ðS; E; I; RÞj0 < S; E; I; R; S þ E þ I þ R 6 :
b
Equilibria are obtained by setting the right side of each of the four differential equations equal to zero. If I ¼ 0, it is easy to
deduce the disease-free equilibrium P0 ¼ fS0 ; 0; 0; 0g, where S0 ¼ Ab. The basic reproduction number, defined as the expected
number of secondary cases produced, in a completely susceptible population, by a typical infected individual during its
entire period of infectiousness, can be also obtained easily as following:
eS0 d eAd
Rr ¼ ¼ :
ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ bðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ
lþcÞ  0 1ÞðaþbÞbðbþdÞðbþlþcÞ
If Rr > 1, we can derive the unique endemic equilibrium: P  ¼ ðS ; E ; I ; R Þ, where S ¼ ðbþdÞðbþ
de
, I ¼ ðReðbþdÞðbþ lþcÞðaþbÞacde ,

cI
E ¼ ðbþldþcÞI and R ¼ aþb .
Assume: (H) the parameters are positive, in the model, which are shown in Table 1.
According to (H), Rr < 1 in model (1). Therefore, we get the following theorem.

2.2. Dynamical analysis of the model

For the disease-free equilibrium, we have the following results.

Theorem 1. If Rr < 1, then

(a) the disease-free equilibrium P0 of system (1) is locally asymptotically stable.

(b) the disease-free equilibrium P0 of system (1) is globally asymptotically stable in the region C.

Proof.

(a) The Jacobian matrix in the disease-free equilibrium P 0 can obtained as following:
0 1
b 0 eS0 0
B 0 ðb þ dÞ eS0 0 C
B C
JjP0 ¼ B C:
@ 0 d ðb þ l þ cÞ 0 A
0 0 c ðb þ aÞ
Consequently, we can obtain characteristic equations

ðk þ bÞðk þ a þ bÞ½k2 þ ð2b þ d þ l þ cÞk þ ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ  eS0 d ¼ 0:

When Rr < 1; ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ  eS0 d > 0. By Hurwitz criteria, we know that all eigenvalues of Jacobin matrix have negative
real parts, that is, the disease-free equilibrium is local stable.
(b) Regarding to the global stability of P 0 , we can construct Lyapunov function V ¼ dE þ ðb þ dÞI. Thus,
!
eS0 d
V_ ¼ deSI  ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞI 6 deS0 I  ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞI 6 ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ 1 I
ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞ
¼ ðb þ dÞðb þ l þ cÞðR0  1ÞI  0:
If Rr < 1; V_ ¼ 0 if and only if I ¼ 0. So, the limit set of each solution in the largest invariant set is the singleton P 0 . Now, by
LaSalles invariance principle [32,33], this means that the disease-free equilibrium P0 is globally asymptotically stable. The
proof of Theorem is complete. h

Table 1
Description of parameters in model (1).

Parameters Value Unit Comments

A 22,000 year-1 Annual crop of newborn puppies
a 1 year-1 Human loss rate of immunity
e 2  106 year-1 Transmission rate
l 0.3 year-1 Human disease-related death rate
d 0.5 year-1 Risk of clinical outcome of exposed humans
c 0.5 year-1 The human recovery rate
b 0.2 year-1 Human natural mortality rate
482 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486

However, the stability of the endemic equilibrium is hard to prove. Because of the high dimensionality of model (1), it is
highly nontrivial to prove the global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium and establish rigorously the threshold
theory. The previous work only deals with models that can be reduced to a 2 or 3 dimensional system.
If Rr < 1, we can also use the perturbed solution to solve the model. Next we will introduce the perturbed solution.

3. Perturbed solution

In this section, we are interested in using what are known as perturbation methods to find approximate solution of the
model (1).

3.1. The model of perturbed solution

Now, we use perturbed methods to solve the model.

Here, in order to obtain the approximate solution of the problem, firstly, we need to consider the reduced state of original
problem. Let e ! 0 of (1), the model can be written as
8 dS
>
> dt
¼ A  bS þ aR;
>
>
< dE ¼ ðb þ dÞE;
dt
ð2Þ
>
> dI
¼ dE  ðb þ l þ cÞI;
>
> dt
: dR
dt
¼ cI  ða þ bÞR:
Obviously, the solution of linear system (2) is written as follows:
8
>
> SðtÞ ¼ c11 ebt þ c12 eðaþbÞt  A1 eðbþdÞt  A2 eðbþlþcÞt þ A3 ;
>
>
< EðtÞ ¼ C 0 eðbþdÞt ;
2
ð3Þ
>
> IðtÞ ¼ B3 eðbþdÞt þ C 03 eðbþlþcÞt ;
>
>
:
RðtÞ ¼ c12 eðaþbÞt þ B1 eðbþdÞt þ B2 eðbþlþcÞt ;
where C 0i ði ¼ 2; 3Þ are zero order arbitrary constants, c11 ; c12 are arbitrary constants.
Then, we suppose one of the solutions ðS; E; I; RÞ of system (1) as
X
1 X
1 X
1 X
1
S¼ Si ðtÞei ; E¼ Ei ðtÞei ; I¼ Ii ðtÞei ; R¼ Ri ðtÞei : ð4Þ
i¼0 i¼0 i¼0 i¼0

Substituting (4) into (1), expanding the nonlinear terms in e and equating the coefficients of the same powers of e, we
have
8
dS0
>
> dt ¼ A  bS0 þ aR0 ;
>
>
>
< dE0 ¼ ðb þ dÞE ;
dt 0
ð5Þ
>
> dI0
¼ dE  ðb þ l þ cÞI0 ;
>
> dt 0
>
: dR0
dt
¼ cI0  ða þ bÞR0 :

So the solution ðS0 ; E0 ; I0 ; R0 Þ is

8
>
> S0 ðtÞ ¼ c11 ebt þ c12 eðaþbÞt  A1 eðbþdÞt  A2 eðbþlþcÞt þ A3 ;
>
>
< E ðtÞ ¼ C 0 eðbþdÞt ;
0 2
ð6Þ
>
> I0 ðtÞ ¼ B3 eðbþdÞt þ C 03 eðbþlþcÞt ;
>
>
:
R0 ðtÞ ¼ c12 eðaþbÞt þ B1 eðbþdÞt þ B2 eðbþlþcÞt ;
equating coefficients of like powers of ei ði ¼ 1; 2; . . .Þ, respectively, we have
8
>
> X
i1
>
>
dSi
¼  Sij1 Ij  bSi þ aRi ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ;
>
> dt
>
> j¼0
>
>
>
< X
i1
dEi
dt
¼  Sij1 Ij  ðb þ dÞEi ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; ð7Þ
>
>
>
> j¼0
>
>
> dIi
> dt ¼ dEi  ðb þ l þ cÞIi ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ;
>
>
>
: dRi
dt
¼ cIi  ða þ bÞRi ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . :
Considering (4) for i ¼ 1 in (7),
 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486 483

8
dS1
>
> ¼ A  bS1 þ aR1  S0 I0 ;
>
> dt
>
< dE1 ¼ ðb þ dÞE þ S I ;
dt 1 0 0
ð8Þ
> dI1 ¼ dE1  ðb þ l þ cÞI1 ;
>
>
> dt
>
: dR1
dt
¼ cI1  ða þ bÞR1 :

The solution ðS1 ; E1 ; I1 ; R1 Þ of linear system (8) is written as follows:

8
>
> S1 ðtÞ ¼ c13 ebt þ c14 eðaþbÞt þ c13 ðtÞebt þ c14 ðtÞeðaþbÞt ;
>
>
>
> E1 ðtÞ ¼ C 3 eð2bþdÞt  C 4 eðaþ2bþdÞt þ C 5 e2ðbþdÞt þ C 6 eðlþcþ2bþdÞt A3 B3 teðbþdÞt
>
>
>
>
>
< þC 7 eð2bþlþcÞt þ C 8 eð2bþaþlþcÞt þ C 9 eð2bþdþlþcÞt  C 10 e2ðlþcþbÞt þ C 11 eðlþcþbÞt þ C 12 eðbþdÞt ;
I1 ðtÞ ¼ D1 eð2bþdÞt  D2 eðaþ2bþdÞt þ D3 e2ðbþdÞt  D4 eð2bþlþcþdÞt ð9Þ
>
>
>
> D5 eð2bþlþcÞt  D6 eðaþ2bþlþcÞt  D7 eðlþcþ2bþdÞt þ D8 e2ðlþcþbÞt þ D9 þ D10 eðbþdÞt
>
>
>
>
>
> þD11 teðbþdÞt  D12 eðbþdÞt þ D13 ;
>
:
R1 ðtÞ ¼ c14 eðaþbÞt  c14 ðtÞeðaþbÞt :
When C 1i ði ¼ 2; 3Þ are first-order arbitrary constants, c13 ; c14 are arbitrary constants.
Continuing to use (7), we obtain the solution ðSn ; En ; In ; Rn Þðn ¼ 0; 1; 2; . . .Þ.
Substituting ðSn ; En ; In ; Rn Þðn ¼ 0; 1; 2; . . .Þ into (4), we obtain the asymptotic expansion solution of original problem (1):
8
> acC 02 acC 0 2 þabÞ
bt
> SðtÞ ¼ c11 e þ c12 e
> ðaþbÞt
 ðlþcdÞðadÞ eðbþdÞt  ðlþcÞða3lcÞ eðbþlþcÞt þ Aða
aðaþbÞb
þ e½c13 ebt þ c14 eðaþbÞt
>
>
>
>
>
> þc13 ðtÞebt þ c14 ðtÞeðaþbÞt ;
>
>
>
> EðtÞ ¼ C 2 eðbþdÞt þ e½C 3 eð2bþdÞt  C 4 eðaþ2bþdÞt þ C 5 e2ðbþdÞt þ C 6 eðlþcþ2bþdÞt A3 B3 teðbþdÞt
>
<
þC 7 eð2bþlþcÞt þ C 8 eð2bþaþlþcÞt þ C 9 eð2bþdþlþcÞt  C 10 e2ðlþcþbÞt þ C 11 eðlþcþbÞt þ C 12 eðbþdÞt ; ð10Þ
>
>
>
> IðtÞ ¼ lþC 2cdd eðbþdÞt þ C 3 eðbþlþcÞt þ e½D1 eð2bþdÞt  D2 eðaþ2bþdÞt þ D3 e2ðbþdÞt  D4 eð2bþlþcþdÞt  D5 eð2bþlþcÞt
>
>
>
>
> D eðaþ2bþlþcÞt  D eðlþcþ2bþdÞt þ D e2ðlþcþbÞt þ D þ D eðbþdÞt þ D teðbþdÞt  D eðbþdÞt þ D ;
>
>
> 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
>
>
: acC 02 d
RðtÞ ¼ c12 eðaþbÞt þ aðlþcdÞðadÞ
C 0 ac
eðbþdÞt þ aða3lcÞ eðbþlþcÞt þ e½c14 eðaþbÞt  c14 ðtÞeðaþbÞt :
acC 0 acC 0 2 acC 0 d
Where A1 ¼ ðlþcdÞðadÞ
2
; A2 ¼ ðlþcÞða3lcÞ ; A3 ¼ Aða þabÞ
aðaþbÞb
; B1 ¼ aðlþcdÞðadÞ
2
,
C 0 ac C0 d
B2 ¼ aða3lcÞ ; B3 ¼ lþ2cd ; C 3 ¼  c11bB3 ; C 4 ¼ caþb
12 B3
; C 5 ¼ Abþd
1 B3
; C 6 ¼ lAþ2cBþb
3
,
c
11 3C0 c
12 3 C0 1 3 A C0 2 3 A C0 3 3 A C0
C 7 ¼ dblc ; C 8 ¼ dablc ; C 9 ¼ lþcþb ; C 10 ¼ db2l2c ; C 11 ¼ dlc ;

D1 ¼ lþcc13bd
d
; D2 ¼ lþccabd
14 d
; D3 ¼ lþcCb2d
5d C6 d
; D4 ¼ bþd ; D5 ¼ Cb7 d ; D6 ¼ aþb
C8 d
;
C9 d C1 d
D7 ¼ bþd ; D8 ¼ lCþ10cþb
d
; D9 ¼ C 11 d; D10 ¼ lþ2cd ; D11 ¼ lAþ3 Bc3dd ; D12 ¼ ðlAþ3cBdÞ
3d
2 ;

D13 ¼ C 13 .

3.2. Asymptotic expansion of the solution uniformly validity

We use perturbation methods to obtain the asymptotic solution (10) of system (1). Next, we show that the solution is
uniformly valid about e in t 2 ½0; T 0 . Firstly, we construct auxiliary functions:
8
> X
m
>
> SðtÞ ¼ Si ðtÞei þ r 1 emþ1 ;
>
<
i¼0
ð11Þ
>
> X
m
>
> Si ðtÞei  r 1 emþ1 ;
: SðtÞ ¼
i¼0
8
> X
m
>
> EðtÞ ¼ Ei ðtÞei þ r 2 emþ1 ;
>
<
i¼0
ð12Þ
>
> X
m
>
> Ei ðtÞei  r 2 emþ1 ;
: EðtÞ ¼
i¼0

8
> X
m
>
> IðtÞ ¼ Ii ðtÞei þ r 3 emþ1 ;
>
<
i¼0
ð13Þ
>
> X
m
>
> Ii ðtÞei  r 3 emþ1 ;
: IðtÞ ¼
i¼0
484 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486

8
> X
m
>
> RðtÞ ¼ Ri ðtÞei þ r 4 emþ1 ;
>
<
i¼0
ð14Þ
>
> X
m
>
> Ri ðtÞei  r 4 emþ1 ;
: RðtÞ ¼
i¼0

where ðSi ; Ei ; Ii ; Ri Þði ¼ 1; 2; . . .Þ is the solution by (7); m is an arbitrary the nonnegative integer; ri ði ¼ 1; 2; 3; 4Þ are appropri-
ate large constants. It is not difficult to prove by using the theory of differential inequality, selecting sufficiently constant
ri ði ¼ 1; 2; 3; 4Þ in e; ðS; E; I; RÞ and ðS; E; I; RÞ are the supersolution and subsolution of (4) in t 2 ½0; T 0 , respectively. So, the
system exists a set of solution ðSðtÞ; EðtÞ; IðtÞ; RðtÞÞ and satisfies:
8
>
> SðtÞ 6 SðtÞ 6 SðtÞ;
>
>
>
< EðtÞ 6 EðtÞ 6 EðtÞ;
ð15Þ
>
> IðtÞ 6 IðtÞ 6 IðtÞ;
>
>
>
:
RðtÞ 6 RðtÞ 6 RðtÞ:

From the (15) and (11)–(14), we obtain that

X
m
SðtÞ ¼ Si ðtÞei þ oðemþ1 Þ; t 2 ½0; T 0 ; 0 < e  1;
i¼0
Xm
EðtÞ ¼ Ei ðtÞei þ oðemþ1 Þ; t 2 ½0; T 0 ; 0 < e  1;
i¼0
X
m
IðtÞ ¼ Ii ðtÞei þ oðemþ1 Þ; t 2 ½0; T 0 ; 0 < e  1;
i¼0
X m
RðtÞ ¼ Ri ðtÞei þ oðemþ1 Þ; t 2 ½0; T 0 ; 0 < e  1:
i¼0

Thus, the solution (10) by using perturbation methods that is the solution of (1) in t 2 ½0; T 0 , which is a set of valid asymp-
totic expansion on e.

4. Application

To intuitively observe the veracity of perturbation method, we can assign values for parameters and draw the figures
of differential model and the approximate solutions to observe the magnitude of error of the perturbation method in a
macro view. The values of parameters are shown in Table 1. The results are shown in Figs. 1 and 2. From that, we can
see that though the approximate solutions have certain error, the trend of the results are coincident, which is satisfac-
tory (see Fig. 3).

7
x 10
2.5

1.5
E

0.5

0
0 2 4 6 8 10
t (month)

Fig. 2. E with time. The full line is the solution of differential equations by the instruct ‘‘ode45’’ in matlab. The broken line is the solution obtained by the
perturbation method.
 X. Wang et al. / Applied Mathematics and Computation 232 (2014) 479–486 485

6
x 10
8

I
3

0
0 2 4 6 8 10
t (month)

Fig. 3. I with time. The full line is the solution of differential equations by the instruct ‘‘ode45’’ in matlab. The broken line is the solution obtained by the
perturbation method.

5. Discussion

For infectious disease models, the conventional dynamic analysis only deal with the limit situation or steady state. In
actual applications, some complex infectious disease models cannot be analysed by qualitative theory or we need to know
solution dynamic of the models in some certain time. Under the circumstances we can use perturbation method to deal with
them by obtaining the expression of the solution, then conduct quantitative and qualitative research, make a prediction for
the trend of the development of some diseases and take the corresponding measures. So, in this paper, we introduce an SEIR
model and study it from two aspects. On the one hand, we analyze dynamical behavior of the model by the conventional
qualitative and stability theory. On the other hand, we use perturbation method to obtain the analytical solution of the mod-
el and give the contrast figure about the analytical solution and the exact solutions. Through observing the results, we can
draw the following conclusions:

1. By macroscopically analyzing the two comparison charts, it can be seen that analytical solution and the exact solution are
consistent in the trend and wave by and large. So, we can know that it is feasible to analyse the solution of the model
infectious diseases using the perturbation method and the analytic solutions are effective.
2. From the above two graphics, we can see that the error of the solution is a little bigger, which can be interpreted in the
following reasons: the model dimension is higher and the initial value can be taken different and the order of solution
analytical formula we take is only the first order. So, there must exist errors between exact solution and analytical solu-
tion. In a word, we can know that the perturbation method is feasible, but it will need further improvement and research.
So, our research direction in future is to improve the perturbation method and to deal with the higher order number of
asymptotic expansion to get more accurate analytical solution.

References

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