COVID -19 Pandemic: Challenges and Responses

Essay submitted by
Eshika Raju Penkar
University of Mumbai
Konkan Gyanpeeth College of Engineering
Bachelor’s in Computer Engineering (Pursuing)

More than three months after a mystery virus emerged in China's Wuhan, the world has come to
a screeching halt. If we take a look at the 100+ days of the year, it has seriously impact this huge
globalized world.

The coronavirus family causes illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases
such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome
(MERS), according to the WHO. They circulate in animals and some can be transmitted between
animals and humans. Several coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected
humans. The new coronavirus, the seventh known to affect humans, has been named COVID-
19.Common signs of infection include fever, coughing and breathing difficulties. In severe cases,
it can cause pneumonia, multiple organ failure and death. The incubation period of COVID-19 is
thought to be between one and 14 days. It is contagious before symptoms appear, which is why
so many people get infected. Infected patients can be also asymptomatic, meaning they do not
display any symptoms despite having the virus in their systems.

The WHO declared the virus a pandemic on March 11 and said it was "deeply concerned by the
alarming levels of spread and severity" of the outbreak. The WHO recommends basic hygiene
such as regularly washing hands with soap and water, and covering your mouth with your elbow
when sneezing or coughing. Maintain "social distancing" - keeping at least 1.8 meters (six feet)
between yourself and others - particularly if they are coughing and sneezing, and avoid touching
your face, eyes and mouth with unwashed hands. Avoid unnecessary, unprotected contact with
animals and be sure to thoroughly wash hands after contact.

On 24 March, Modi announced a three-week national lockdown. However, his government did
little to ensure that about 139 million migrant workers and their families, who make up 10 % of
the population, could return home. Many have got stranded without jobs, shelter or food. Bus
and railway stations are teeming with people trying to get home while others have started a long
trek, walking home with no food or water. While state governments are trying their best and the
civic community is helping, the problem is still serious. The police are helpful at times, but
sometimes they harass the poor. The situation in India's densely populated slums is critical too.
Social distancing is hardly an option. Moreover, not every slum has running water. Preventing
the disease is even more important in Southeast Asia than in richer world regions because health
systems are much weaker. Italy has 3.2 hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants; India has 0.5. The
situation is similar in neighboring countries. So far, there is only minimal testing and an acute
shortage of protective wear.

COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly around the world. Almost every country has reported
cases, but the burden is asymmetrically distributed. In the past seven days (April 6–12), 46
percent of new confirmed cases have been reported in Europe and 39 percent in the United
States. To an extent, that’s because countries are at different stages of the pandemic. Some that
were effective at initial containment, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, have seen resurgence
and are implementing additional measures to address it. Others, such as many countries in
Western Europe, have seen the number of new cases plateau or begin to decline and are debating
the right approach to reopening their economies. Some countries appear to be at the peak of
infection and are urgently building surge capacity in their health systems. In other parts of the
world, the number of cases is rising rapidly. Countries such as Russia and Turkey are seeing a
recent acceleration. India too has experienced a significant increase in the number of cases since
the beginning of April and has evolved its response strategy, including extending the nationwide
lockdown.
The public-health tools and approaches to be deployed vary considerably based on this status.
Measures including physical distancing, travel restrictions, effective use of personal protective
equipment (PPE), testing and tracing, and healthcare surge capacity require more or less
emphasis, depending on epidemic phase and local context. Local use of these measures varies
considerably—physical distancing may be near-impossible in crowded urban settings, for
example, and the apps and digital tools for contact tracing like those used in China may not be
acceptable in other parts of the world. Another challenge is the dependencies among these
measures: to take one example, the timeliness and stringency of physical distancing measures
substantially influences how other tools should be deployed.

Although a consensus has emerged around the use of physical distancing to slow transmission in
many high-prevalence settings, a few countries, such as Sweden, are pursuing an alternative
“herd immunity” strategy focused on protecting the most vulnerable populations while using
only limited distancing measures to flatten the curve for others. The goals are to maintain many
aspects of economic and social life today and, over time, to develop a large enough pool of
exposed people (about 70 to 80 percent) to “protect the herd.” Other countries are closely
watching the outcome of this approach. The threat of COVID-19 to lives and livelihoods will
fully resolve only when enough people are immune to the disease to blunt transmission, either
from a vaccine or direct exposure. Until then, governments that want to restart their economies
must have public-health systems that are strong enough to detect and respond to cases.

The first and most obvious factor in determining readiness is the number of new cases in a given
area. Regions with significant ongoing transmission should expect that restarting economic
activity will only lead to more transmission. Case numbers and, more importantly,
hospitalizations need to be low enough for a health system to manage individually rather than
through mass measures. A second factor in thinking about this is the strength of the systems in
place for detecting, managing, and preventing new cases, including adequate medical capacity,
especially of intensive care units (ICUs), for those with severe disease; the ability to perform a
diagnostic test for COVID-19 with a fast turnaround time; and several other elements.

If we combine a system’s level of strength with an assessment of the intensity of virus

transmission, we can evaluate any region’s readiness to restart activity . These two dimensions
determine four stages of readiness to reopen the economy, with Stage 4 the least ready and Stage
1 the most.