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Terms of Reference
Objective
The objective of the proposed activity is to support the Government of Liberia in developing a National
Electrification Strategy with the help of geospatial planning aimed at charting out the path for achieving
universal access to electricity services in a reasonable time-frame and with least cost.
Background
Liberia has one of the lowest electrification rates in the world and given the disperse settlements,
grid electrification is not a feasible option in the short term for many in the remote counties. About
one-third of Liberian population of 4.2 million lives within an 80-km radius of the capital Monrovia,
while the rest of the population is scattered within 14,000 settlements throughout the country. Liberia
Electricity Corporation (LEC) is responsible for generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity
and is focused on capital Monrovia and the surrounding areas. It has currently only about 52,000
connections translating into an access to electricity of only 5% nationally (about 16% in Monrovia).
Household Income Expenditure survey (2016) estimates that about 18% of population of Liberia has
access to electricity (either from grid or from captive diesel generation). While projects funded by
various development partners is supporting LEC to expand the grid network along the major corridors
(Kakata, Bomi/ Grand Cape Mount Corridor, and RIA corridors), grid expansion alone cannot help
Liberia achieve its modest goal of 35% electrification rate by 2030. And the aspiration of Liberia to
become a middle-income country by 2030 would be difficult to achieve with only about one-third of its
population having access to modern energy services. Liberia needs to have a strategy focusing on an
accelerated access towards the goal of universal access to electricity using a combination of grid and off-
grid solutions. Given the limited public funding available, private sector investments will have to be
leveraged particularly in the off-grid space to ensure an accelerated access to electricity.
Liberia currently has adequate generation capacity to meet power demand throughout the year
with excess capacity during the wet seasons (May-Dec). Total installed generation capacity is 126MW
(88MW from Mt. Coffee hydropower and 38MW of thermal plants) against a peak demand of about
33MW. Peak load projection for 2019 dry season is 42MW which can be met through the existing
thermal plants run on HFO (34MW availability), 9MW of old plants (rehabilitation on-going) to be run on
LFO, and Mt. Coffee (~10MW availability during the peak dry season). With the completion of Cross
Broder Cote d’Ivoire-Liberia-Sierra Leone-Guinea (CLSG) by December 2019, there should be adequate
capacity (27MW, which can be negotiated to increase further) from CLSG for meeting dry season needs
of 2019/2020. At USc35/kWh, Liberia has one of the highest tariff in the world.
The country has sufficient renewable energy potential that could support both supply through the
national grid and decentralized solutions through the private sector offering basic electrification
services to many living in the remote rural areas before 2030. While the country lacks any indigenous
reserves of fossil fuel, preliminary estimates indicate sufficient renewable energy resources (mainly
hydro, solar, and biomass) that would be even more cost-effective with the advancement of technology
going forward. As a tropical country with an extensive sea coast where many rivers end, Liberia is
estimated to have about 2,300 MW of hydropower potential. 1 With a plain topography, the hydro
potential is concentrated in large rivers with high mean annual flow and low heads. There are few
locations with high natural heads and optimal flows for larger hydropower schemes and low levelized
costs of electricity that can supply the national grid or large decentralized grids across the country. and
1
Rural Energy Strategy and Master Plan, 2016.
harnessing this potential will require development of reservoirs, which require significant lead time and
capital investment. Mt Coffee optimization study funded by the WB is expected to be completed in 2019
and will provide insights on pathways for harnessing this potential including development of Via Dam
reservoir. Liberia’s solar energy potential is estimated to be high and consistent across the country with an
average level of 1,712 kWh/m 2/year, similar to that of Spain (1,620 kWh/m 2/year).2 Ahead of the
extension of the national electricity grid to rural areas, solar technology is most appropriate for small- or
medium-scale rural electrification initiatives, with the potential to be combined with diesel and batteries
to support low-voltage transitional mini-grids for county capitals or large towns. 3
Harnessing the renewable energy potential for access to electricity will require the expertise, skills,
and investment from the private sector. Particularly, the off-grid options (localized grid, mini-grid, or
stand-alone systems) will require leveraging private sector investments as public sector does not
necessarily have the expertise or the investments necessary to successfully tap into the renewable energy
based off-grid solutions. Global experience has shown that private sector-led off-grid solutions can
effectively provide electrification services to remote rural areas where grid is not economic or will take
years to reach. For the private sector solution to work, effective regulatory and policy support will be
needed from the Government particularly to address the affordability barrier as well as to ensure quality
services are provided.
A number of demand studies have been conducted for Liberia including i) options for development of
Liberia’s energy sector (October 2011) 4, ii) Liberia power sector capacity building and energy master
planning (August 2013)5 and iii) preparation of a government of Liberia least cost power development
plan (LCPDP) (August 2014). LCPDP provides the most comprehensive study to date and feeds into the
main transmission and distribution corridors currently under construction. The Rural and Renewable
Energy Agency (RREA) of Liberia launched its rural energy strategy and master plan (RESMP) in 2016,
that envisions electrification rates of 10% in 2020, 20% in 2025 and 35% in 2030 for people living
outside Monrovia. The master plan further targets more than 75% of all electricity coming from
renewables by 2030 with 19% coming from other than large hydro resources and mainly from mini-
hydro, solar and bio-mass. Government of Liberia (GoL) vision is to reach access rate of 70% of the
population in Monrovia and 35% countrywide by 2030 compared to the UN Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4ALL) goal of universal access to electricity by 2030.
Given the dispersed nature of the settlements beyond Monrovia, the abundance of renewable
energy resources, and the cross-border inter-connection opportunities, Liberia can embark on an
aggressive electrification campaign based on both grid and off-grid options. A National
Electrification Strategy (NES) with particular emphasis on private sector participation in the off-grid
space is needed to achieve universal access to electricity services of acceptable quality in a reasonable
time-frame, and at least-cost for the country. With the help of the geospatial tool, the least cost
technology options (national grid, localized grid, or stand-alone solar systems) need to be identified for
various parts of the country towards meeting the goal of universal access to electricity.
2
Global Solar Atlas prepared by the World Bank (www.globalsolaratlas.info).
3
In terms of other renewable energy sources, biomass gasification has been tested in Liberia with promising results despite the
challenges facing the technology. However, despite having access to an extensive coastline, Liberia’s wind power potential is
very low, with average wind speeds of less than 5 meter/second in most of the contyry according to the regional wind map by
Economic Community of West African States’ Observatory for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE)
(www.ecowrex.org).
4
Source: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTAFRREGTOPENERGY/Resources/717305-
1266613906108/Liberia_Energy_ESW_11-4-11web.pdf
5
Source: http://qsel.columbia.edu/assets/uploads/blog/2013/09/LiberiaEnergySectorReform_Phase4Report-Final_2013-08.pdf
Government of Liberia has committed to achieving gender equality and women’s rights as a means
of maintaining peace, reducing poverty, enhancing justice, and promoting sustainable development
through its National Gender Policy in 2009. The NES will pay particular attention to the gender aspects
to ensure than women can have access to and benefit from gaining access to electricity.
Scope of Work
Review current planning and implementation processes of the existing national electrification plan,
including institutional, technical and financial aspects:
(i) Collect and review background documents including the Rural Energy Strategy and Master
Plan (2016), Least Cost Power Development Plan (2014), National Electrification Master
Plan (2013), Options for the Development of Liberia’s Energy Sector (2011), Energy Policy
Note (WB, 2018) etc;
(ii) Collect all geospatial data including topographical maps currently available on Liberia 6;
(iii) Review and document the roles of Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Liberia Electricity
Corporation (LEC), Rural and Renewable Energy Agency (RREA), Liberia Energy
Regulatory Commission (LERC), and other stakeholders;
(iv) Review the current system planning processes of LEC, and selection criteria for areas to be
electrified;
(v) Review technical design, execution, and service standards for proposed electrification
projects of LEC and RREA;
(vi) Review financing arrangements including budget support, borrowing, and other mechanisms
for electrification, if any;
(vii) Review current models and approaches for attracting private sector participation in the off-
grid space and the barriers (legal, regulatory, and institutional) for leveraging private sector
investments;
(viii) Assess the National Gender Policy 2009 and other relevant policy documents with a view to
having a gender responsive NES that will ensure that women can gain access to and benefit
from access to electricity.
Define the objectives, transparent processes, and procedures for: (i) identification of least cost technology
options for universal access to electricity in a reasonable time frame; (ii) identification of areas for private
sector investments for electrification; (ii) criteria for prioritization of electrification projects; (iii)
proposed public and private investments to be included in the scope of the NES and best technical options
to implement them; and (iv) financial arrangements for electrification projects, including private sector
investments and contributions from new users. The activity will need to identify a pipeline of small
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects.
6
Refer to Sub-Task 2.3b for more details about the Geospatial Analysis Exercise
Sub-Task 2.1a: Definition of Service Quality Levels
Service levels for both grid expansion and off-grid solutions will need to be defined, assuming that “Grid
level” service would be the baseline condition to be achieved in most cases. However, transitory solutions
may be considered in cases where “grid level” service is not viable in the short or medium term. Off-grid
electrification (through individual stand-alone systems or isolated mini-grids or localized grids) would be
considered for areas where grid is not economic in the medium term.
Further, service level standards should be developed taking into account the following aspects:
- Baseline vs. off-grid service standards: Service levels may be different for urban and rural
areas and should be established through specific standards based on customer acceptance and
willingness to pay. Standards should be set for both technical and commercial dimensions of
the service. Required levels of service and associated penalties and rewards should be phased
in over time and synchronized with tariff levels (full enforcement of the service quality
regime requires tariff levels allowing recovery of total costs of efficient service provision).
- Technical design optimization: Optimization of technical design implies the determination of
the most cost-effective options to achieve service quality levels. Incorporating low-cost
technologies meeting predefined service quality levels must be considered in the planning and
design.
This technical planning exercise shall be supported by a detailed geospatial least-cost electrification
analysis covering the country of Liberia and proposing several scenarios to achieve the levels of access
defined in sub-task 2.1a.
The scope of this assignment, supporting the NES, revolves around the following guidelines:
More specifically, the consultant shall organize this sub-task along the following guidelines below:
The consultant shall collect, compile, clean and aggregate all available data layers relevant for this
exercise, including and not restricted to:
7
Mining Activities should be thoroughly mapped and be included in the planning exercise
household spatial settlement patterns, population density, extent of spatial nucleation across
and within settlements;
b. Location data of priority service delivery facilities such as schools, health facilities and
administrative centers;
c. Digitized representation of HV and MV networks and lines, the national grid system and its
components – substation and transformer etc., and the main bulk supply delivery points
– existing and planned;
d. Data on renewable energy resource availability, at each demand load center, including
wind, solar, geothermal, mini/micro-hydro and potential biomass from crop residue;
e. Socio-economic data derived from both publicly available and confidential geospatial
market intelligence shared by companies and key industry associations (including mobile/
mobile money operators, food/beverage, non-durable household products, appliances, etc.);
f. Other socio-economic indicators, for instance, the poverty rate variation data and night lights
data.
The consultant is expected to engage in discussions with the relevant local counterparts to collect and
organize already available data layers, more particularly, the consultant shall refer to the documents
collected in Task 1 (Rural Energy Strategy and Master Plan, Policy Note, etc.), and all other sources of
data and information presented by the Ministries, Public Agencies, and utility.
The consultant is encouraged to use publicly available data layers 8, pending a validation process to assess
the quality and accuracy of these datasets.
The output of this task shall include all the basic GIS layers needed to support the analysis undertaken,
consolidated with metadata, and shared in accordance with Annex A. The final GIS database should be
accessible by each of the relevant organizations for regularly updating its contents and using information
for analysis. Open technologies are encouraged, to facilitate data longevity.
The Consultant shall propose the key parameters that would bound the least-cost analysis that follows and
elaborate how each parameter will be defined and measured. Such parameters include, but are not limited
to: projected electricity demand, Agricultural and Mining activities’ loads, service standards for networks
and individual systems (based on sub-Task 2.1a), renewable energy resource availability, fuel prices,
consumer affordability, target access levels, temporal issues such as pace of roll-out and stop-gap
solutions, and spatial issues such as proximity to social and productive uses and potentials. The consultant
shall review and discuss with relevant counterparts as well as concerned ministries and utilities.
Outputs of this task shall include a report summarizing the key findings and recommendations based on
an informed technical analysis as well as considering the cost and benefit implications of appropriate
service standards to be used for planning grid and off-grid electrification. The report should also describe
how the proposed criteria will be incorporated into the geospatial analysis for least-cost electrification
options.
Sub-Task 2.1.3: Development of Least-Cost Electrification Options: Grid, Mini-Grid and Off-Grid
The Consultant shall establish a GIS-based spatial Least-cost electrification planning model that
comprehensively addresses, at a detailed level, grid densification for urban areas, grid extension for rural
areas, as well as complementary off-grid access delivery modalities – including cost effective renewable
energy options if any - and that together are the implementation blocks of a systematically staged and
coordinated electrification rollout program at national level for Liberia. The model shall compare
8
For instance: Facebook & Columbia University High Resolution Settlements
different technologies and electricity supply options (technical and economic viability) and estimate total
costs for electrification at each demand load center (investment and operating), including national grid-
based densification and medium voltage network extensions, off-grid applications including expansion of
existing isolated networks and supply, development of new mini-grids and supply, and individual
household or institutional systems, using renewable energy as appropriate and as much as possible. The
Consultant shall list any licenses needed to ensure the functionality of the GIS planning model and
provide estimated costs for acquiring the licenses.
The Consultant shall identify potential technology options (national grid, localized grid or mini-grid,
stand-alone systems) and, in justification of Tasks 2.1 and 2.2, use the GIS planning model to conduct the
comparative technical, economic and financial tradeoff analysis of these technologies and delivery
modality options for achieving universal access in a reasonable time-frame, i.e. the systematic rollout of a
least-cost national electrification program that includes all areas and aims to maximize coverage for a
given investment level or alternately for a given target coverage .
- Develop Least-Cost electrification options analysis for isolated networks (Mini-Grid) and
Off-Grid (Stand-alone systems), by undertaking appropriate analysis for identifying the least-
cost configuration, sizing, and operating regime for the proposed isolated network systems
(mini-grids) that are not connected to existing and proposed national grid. This analysis shall
evaluate the potential of cost effective renewable energy supply options locally available (as
indicated by resource maps, etc.), such as solar PV, storage, mini-hydro, wind, geothermal
and hybrid combinations thereof. The Consultant shall further develop the analysis for
providing access to the areas proposed as off-grid for stand-alone systems and indicate which
have sufficient demand to justify mini-grid installations, and which are better served by
individual residential or institutional systems based on the minimum unit connection cost.
The outputs of this task shall include the costing for each identified system.
The Consultant shall undertake (selectively) sensitivity analysis to examine the robustness of the model’s
key outputs to changes in key input assumptions and policy parameters. Scenario-based evaluation of the
updated model (based on policy objectives) can further assist with development of access related policies
(such as subsidies, tariff structures, and national electrification policy scenarios), including and not
restricted to:
9
Refer to Rural Energy and Strategy Master Plan
(i) Scenario for Universal Access by 2030
(ii) Scenario for 35% Grid-penetration by 2030, the rest being served by Off-Grid and Mini-Grid
technologies, while privileging renewable energies when cost effective
This analysis will examine the sensitivity of selected high-level outputs of the options analysis to different
technology and supply costs, standards for service, reliability and resilience, timing of roll-out, and other
policy variables.
The Consultant shall also discuss preliminary results with the Government, World Bank and other
development partners and incorporate feedback into the sensitivity analysis and final least-cost
electrification options analysis.
Sub task 2.1.5. Web-based Visualization of Scenario Analysis Results
The Consultant will develop a web-based tool, which will include the following functionalities:
i. Allows user to visualize all data layers used as input to the analysis (grid infrastructure existing
and planned, population distribution or structures dataset, location of public facilities and major
demand centers, resource potential throughout the country, road network, etc.);
ii. Allows users to display a “structure electrification access” layer, zoom-in on a structure to
understand if structure is electrified or not;
iii. Allows users to display a “structure supply options” layer, zoom-in on a structure to understand
the least cost supply option for the structure as well as investment needs and levelized cost of
electricity;
iv. Allows users to display “village-level or settlement level least-cost supply options” layer whereby
users zoom-in on and select a village; information regarding the village should be shown,
including population size, distance to grid, distance to road, cost to electrify customers ,capacity
requirements, energy demand, number of people with access, and number of people to be
electrified via SHS, mini-grid, and grid
v. Ability to download results of the analysis.
The source of the code used to develop the tool will be made available on the platform together with some
guidelines, and in order to allow other users and developers to build upon it.
The Consultant shall engage in stakeholder consultations with the local counterparts to identify
and recommend the appropriate institutional and organizational arrangements to ensure that the
GIS database is maintained and regularly updated. This involves determining with which
organization the national power sector GIS database and modelling platforms will reside, which
GIS software/platform will be utilized, and the arrangements for updating and maintaining these
resources. Recommendations should be aligned with Task 3.1 on Institutional Planning.
Following the assessment of the existing electrification planning process within the context of the
proposed NES, prepare the NES implementation strategy including the following activities:
The Consultant will also assess treatment of new assets built under electrification programs- ownership,
regulation, accounting, etc.
- Propose financing options for electrification projects taking into consideration funding
constraints of sector institutions, including borrowing capacity of the government. Particular
emphasis should be given to identify the barriers (legal, regulatory and institutional) for
leveraging private investments and recommendations for addressing the barriers with
appropriate incentive/risk sharing mechanism for attracting private sector participation will
have to be included. A pipeline of potential PPP projects will need to be identified.
Task 1
- Inception report
- Draft and final report on current procedures for planning and implementation of electrification
plans and projects; gap analysis with good practices in electrification.
- Present the results in a workshop for key stakeholders.
The consultant is expected to take into consideration the Geospatial analysis presented in Task 2.1b in the
drafting of the report and the assessment of data gaps.
The expected total duration of Task 1 (including inception phase) is 6 weeks.
Task 2
Draft and Final NES design and plan, comprising of the following topics:
Task 2.1 Technical design and planning
Task 2.1a: Definition of Service Levels: 4 weeks
Task 2.1b: Identification of Least-Cost Technology Options: 30 weeks
i. Interim GIS Least-Cost rollout report: 6 weeks
ii. Draft GIS Least-Cost rollout report: 12 weeks
iii. Final Geospatial Least-Cost Rollout report: 25 weeks
iv. Web-based Visualization of Scenario Analysis Results: 28 weeks
v. Final Workshop and Capacity Building report: 30 weeks
Task 2.2 Financial planning: 4 weeks
The expected duration of Task 2 is 38 weeks
Task 3
Draft and Final NES implementation plan 8 weeks.
Present the results in a workshop for stakeholders.
The final version of each deliverable must include an Annex describing in a matrix format the comments
on the draft report received from the client’s counterpart team, the Consultant’s response to each
comment and a reference to the contents of the final report addressing the comment.