Metro Government Analysis 2020

Public Opinion Poll Public Opinion Poll

Shelby County Residents Memphis Residents

Conducted by:
Conquest Communications Group
2812 Emerywood Pkwy, Richmond, VA 23294

23%
Neither good
or bad 01
Objectives

Metro Government Analysis 2020

02
 Objectives

A number of Memphis and Shelby County political leaders and business

executives looking at the long term economic growth and success of
the emphis region believe that

1) a public / private initiative to chart the future course of the city and county

and

2) an effective and efficient government is a path forward to create a more

vibrant Memphis region.

03
 Objectives
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Conquest Communications was founded in 1997 and provides a

number of voter contact for both outreach and educational objectives.
Conquest was engaged to conduct a scientific poll
for the purposes of:

Gauging voters' opinions and support for the IRUPDWLRQRID0HWUR

*RYHUQPHQW of the Memphis and Shelby County GovernmentV.

Assist in identifying key issues that DUHPLVFRQFHSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJD

0HWUR*RYHUQPHQW
To achieve these objectives, Conquest Communications Group conducted
the public opinion study presented in the following pages.

04
 Preamble
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05
Methodology

Metro Government Analysis 2020

06
 Methodology

In order to meet a key objective for this study, two separate samplings
by telephone of voters of the City of Memphis and of Shelby County
outside of Memphis were conducted.

o N = 600 voters for the total of both polls.

o N = 300 voters among registered voters living in the City of Memphis.
o N = 300 voters among registered voters living in Shelby County outside of Memphis.
and including the six suburban cities and towns of Shelby County.

07
 Methodology

Voters were selected from recent voter registration files obtained by Conquest
Communication Group for these two separate areas of Shelby County.

Questions in the polls screened potential participants for location within the City and County
to insure the participant qualified for the survey, and that the participant met certain 
criteria to ensure the sample was representative of the general voter population and
geographical location within the City of Memphis and Shelby County
The polling of 600 Shelby County residents has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent
with a confidence level of 95 percent

The margin of error for the polls of Shelby County residents and City of Memphis residents,
300 each have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent with a confidence level of 95

Quotas were established within each n=300 survey for race, age, and gender and geographical

Each n=300 has margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent with a 95 percent confidence.

The polls were conducted on the afternoon and evenings of August 11 through 13.

The poll questions were to measure the voters’ reactions on various issues that impact a per-
son’s opinions and decision making on whether to merge the governments of Memphis and
Shelby County.

08
County Residents
Survey Data

Metro Government Analysis 2020

09
 County Residents
Once additional facts are presented, county residents
are TWICE as likely to support a Metro Government

2020 Pre-Test 2020 Post-Test

30% 60% For

53% 25% Against

Undecided/
17% 15% need more
information

10
County Resident Poll 2020 Q06 + Q23
 County Residents
In a Pre-test question: Nearly twice as many
residents are open to a Metro Government in 2020
as were in 2008.

2008 Pre-Test 2008 Post-Test 2020 Pre-Test 2020 Post-Test

For 17% 42% 30% 60% For

Against 78% 44% 53% 25% Against

Undecided/ Undecided/
need more
information
5% 12% 17% 15% need more
information

2008 Consolidation Poll Q14 + Q39

11
County Resident Poll 2020 Q06 + Q23
 County Residents
Shelby County Residents are now 16 percent more
likely to believe that they are headed in the right
direction than they did in 2008.

County View of County County View of County

2008 2020
17% 46%
Don’t Know/
30% 60% Refused Right Direction
Right Wrong Direction
Direction 15%
Neither
Direction/
Staying the
Same

10%
Other 21%
Wrong Direction
12
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q01
 County Residents
Shelby County Residents are 7 WLPHV more likelyto
believe that the City of Memphis is headed in the
right direction than they did in 2008.
County View of City County View of City
2008 2020

6% 12%
7% 41%
Right Don’t Know/
Other Refused Right Direction
Direction

9%
Neither
Direction/
Staying the
Same

87%
Wrong Direction

37%
Wrong Direction
13
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q02
 County Residents
Over half of Shelby County residents Over forty percent of Shelby County
believe Shelby &ounty *overnment residents believe &LW\RIMemphis
is doing an acceptable to great job *RYHUQPHQW is doing an acceptable
taking care of its citizens. to great job taking care of its citizens.

County View of County County View of City

6%
Don’t Know/ 8% 7%
Great Job 14%
Refused 54% Don’t Know/
Great Job
Approve
of the jo
b Refused 41%
Approve of
15% the job

Poor job
46%
Acceptable 34%
Acceptable

23%
Poor job

25%
Neither good 23%
or bad Neither good
or bad 14
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q03 + Q04
 County Residents
Shelby County Residents are divided on the biggest issue facing our
community, but Crime is mentioned more than any other issue at 37
compared to the next issue of schools at 18

Biggest issues facing our community

Lack of growth 12%

Crime 37%
Government Bureaucracy 11%

Economy 13%

Schools 18%

Something Else 5%

Don’t Know 4%
15
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q05
 County Residents
Fifty-five percent of Shelby County Residents don’t know the type of
government Nashville has.

Nashville Government

Separate city of Nashville & County Government 13%

54%
A consolidated metro government 45%
Unsure 42%

16
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q10
 County Residents
Knowing that the suburban cities and towns still exist
in a Metro Government, 44 percent of respondents
are more likely to vote for a Metro Government.

20%
Unsure 44%
More likely
to vote for

36%
Less likely
to vote for

17
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q11
 County Residents
Providing the public with the IDFWV RI D 0HWUR *RYHUQPHQW LV
important to gaining support

If a Metro Government can be shown to create new jobs If it is proven to Shelby County Residents that a Metro
and a growing economy, nearly 3/4 of Shelby County Government would maintain Public Services at or above the
Residents are likely to support a Metro Government current level, 66 percent are more likely to support

Jobs & Economy Public Service

73% 66%
More likely More likely
to support to support 24%
Less likely to
support
18%
Less likely to
support

10% 10%
Don’t Know/ Don’t Know/
Refused Refused
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q14 County Resident Poll 2020 - Q13

Shelby County Residents are 62 percent more likely to If it is proven to Shelby County Residents that a Metro Govern-
support Metro Government if it was proven to decrease ment could allow us to get a more equitable share of State and
taxes. Federal resources, Shelby County Residents would be 67 percent
more likely to support Metro Government.
Taxes
State & Federal Resources
62%
More likely
to support
24%
Less likely to 6%
support
More likely
to support

2%
Less likely to
support
14%
Don’t Know/
Refused

13%
Unsure /
Refused 18
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q12 County Resident Poll 2020 - Q15
 County Residents
No single issue will be the main driving force against a Metro
Government campaign.

Racism 10%
Trust in Government 9%
Residents are split among
Losing political powers 5%
many issues that they
believe would stop a Metro Taxes 12%
Government
My community not getting its fair
share of resources 10%
Not understanding how it would
work 13%
Other 28%

Unsure 13%
19
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q16
 County Residents
Duplication of services is considered a high priority issue or
that that requires further study by 69 percent of Shelby
County Residents

Duplication of Services
69%
A High Priority Issue 17%
An Issue that needs further study 52%
Not a problem at all 17%
Unsure 14%

20
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q07
City Residents
Survey Data

Metro Government Analysis 2020

21
 City Residents
The Residents of Memphis are three times more likely to have a
favorable view of the Memphis Community today than they
did in 2008.

City View of City City View of City

2008 2020
3% 10%
12% other
Don’t Know/ 46%
Don’t Know/ 15%
33% Right Direction
Right Direction
Wrong Direction

11%
82%
Wrong Direction Neither

County Resident 208 - Q07 22

2020 Consolidation Poll - Q02
 City Residents
City of Memphis residents are three times more likely to believe
Shelby County is moving in the right direction today than they did
in 2008.

City View of County City View of County

2008 2020
3%
other
46%
15%
33% Right Direction
Right Direction
Neither

82%
Wrong
Direction 11%
Wrong
Direction
County Resident 2008 - Q08 23
2020 Consolidation Poll - Q01
 City Residents
Over Half of Memphis residents believe both the city
and county government are doing a great or
acceptable job taking care of it’s citizens.

Shelby County Government City of Memphis Government

55% 53%
Great Job 12% Great Job 10%
Acceptable Job 43% Acceptable Job 43%
Neither Good or Bad 23% Neither Good or Bad 21%

Poor Job 18% Poor Job 22%

Don’t Know / Refused 4% Don’t Know / Refused 5%

24
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q03 + Q04
 City Residents
Pre-test views on consolidating remain similar to
2008 views, but increase an additional 9 percent .
2008 in post-test approval of Metro Government

2008 Pre-Test 2008 Post-Test 2020 Pre-Test 2020 Post-Test

For 51% 67% 49% 76% For

Against 11% 22% 22% 10% Against

Undecided/ Undecided/
need more
information
30% 11% 30% 14% need more
information

2008 Consolidation Poll Q14 + Q39

25
City Resident Poll 2020 Q6 + Q20
 City Residents
Nearly half of respondents indicated that Memphis’s
biggest issue is crime.

Biggest issues facing our community

Lack of growth 7%

Crime 47%
Government Bureaucracy 5%

Economy 17%

Schools 15%

Something Else 6%

Don’t Know 2%
26
City Resident 2020 - Q05
 City Residents
69 percent believe duplication of services needs to
be studied or is a high priority issue.

Duplication of Services
69%
A High Priority Issue 17%
An Issue that needs further study 52%
Not a problem at all 17%
Unsure 14%

27
City Resident 2020 - Q07
 City Residents
Most residents can not identify the type of
Government Nashville has, 65 percent identified the
wrong type or were unsure.

Nashville Government

Separate city of Nashville & County Government 20%

65%
A consolidated metro government 36%
Unsure 45%

28
City Resident 2020 - Q10
 City Residents
Knowing that the suburban cities and towns still exist
in a Metro Government,  percent of respondents
are more likely to vote for a Metro Government.

20%
Unsure 63%
More likely
to vote for

16%
Less likely
to vote for

29
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q11
 City Residents
Creating jobs, growing the economy, and receiving equitable share
of state and federal resources are the topics most likely to move a
resident to support a Metro Government
Three-quarters of Memphis Residents are more likely to Providing current level or improved public services makes
support metro government is taxes were to be lowered. Memphis Residents 80 % more likely to support metro
government.
Taxes Public Service

75% 80%
More likely More likely
to support to support

10% 9%
Don’t Know/
Don’t Know/
Refused
Refused
15% 11%
Less likely to
Less likely to
support
support

City Resident Poll 2020 - Q12 City Resident Poll 2020 - Q13

Memphis Residents by a margin of 12 to 1 are more likely Memphis Residents are 10 more like to support metro
to support metro government for job creation and government when it means a more equitable share of
economic growth state and federal resources.

Jobs & Economy State & Federal Resources

84% 83%
More likely More likely
to support to support

7%
Don’t Know/ 9%
Refused Don’t Know/
Refused
9% 8%
Less likely to
support
Less likely to 30
support
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q14 City Resident Poll 2020 - Q15
 City Residents
Memphis residents are divided in the biggest issue stopping a Metro
Government with the two largest concerns being Racism (16%) and not
understanding how a Metro Government works (15%).

Racism 16%
Trust in Government 8%

Losing political powers 9%

Taxes 4%
My community not getting its fair
share of resources 10%
Not understanding a Metro
Government 15%
Other 18%

Unsure / Refused 19%

31
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q16
Demographics

Metro Government Analysis 2020

32
 Demographics

City of Memphis Shelby County

9% 7%
27% Downtown 27% Arlington

Other 5% Unincorporated
21%
North Memphis Bartlett

13%
South Memphis

5%
11% Millington 17%
Cordova Collierville
5%
8% 19% Lakeland

Raleigh / East Memphis

Frayser 9% 18%
Whitehaven Germantown

County Resident Poll 2020 - Q17

City Resident Poll 2020 - Q17 33
 Political Affiliation

County Resident Poll 2020 - Q26

City Resident Poll 2020 - Q23 34
 Demographics
Age of Respondants

Memphis Shelby County

2% 2%
23% Unknown / Refused Unknown / Refused
65 or older
11% 12%
18 - 29
18 - 29
24%
65 or older

16% 15%
30 -39 30 -39

29%
50 - 64 17%
40 - 49
18% 30%
40 - 49
50 - 64

County Resident Poll 2020 - Q27

35
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q24
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q28
36
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q25
County Resident Poll 2020 - Q25
37
City Resident Poll 2020 - Q21
Shelby County Poll Questions Reference
q01. Do you think the Shelby County community as a whole is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
q02. Do you think the Memphis community as a whole is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
q03. How do you feel Shelby County's government is doing taking care of its citizens?
q04. How do you feel Memphis's City government is doing taking care of its citizens?
q05. In thinking about Shelby County as a whole, what do you think is the one biggest problem facing our community?
q06. If a referendum were held today to form a new, consolidated City of Memphis and Shelby County government, are you...
q07. Do you think that duplication of services from the City of Memphis and Shelby County governments is...
q08. Which of these views comes closest to your own?
q09. And which of those two views would you be more likely to support?
q10. What type of government do you think Nashville has?
q11. Knowing that the suburban cities and towns still exist in a metro government, are you more likely or less likely to vote for a metro
government here in Shelby County?
q12. If it's proven to you that a Metro Government would cause your taxes to go down, would you be more likely or less likely to support a
metro government?
q13. If it's proven to you that a Metro Government would maintain public services at or above their current level, would you be more likely or
less likely to support a metro government?
q14. If it's proven to you that a metro government could help create new jobs and a growing economy, would you be more likely or less likely
to favor a metro government?
38
Shelby County Poll Questions Reference
q15. If it's proven to you that a metro government could allow us to get a more equitable share of state and federal resources, would you be
more likely or less likely to favor a metro government?
q16. What do you think the biggest issue stopping Shelby County and Memphis from forming a metro government is?
q17. Which city, town or area do you live in? Would you say you lived in...
q18. How do you feel your city's government is doing taking care of its citizens?
q19. If you get to vote for a Metro Mayor and also still vote for your City Mayor, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for a new,
metro government?
q20. Does knowing about the two tax districts cause you to be more likely or less likely to favor forming a new metro government?
q21. Do you believe your city in Shelby County will dissolve if a new, metro government if formed?
q22. State law allows the largest city, Memphis, and the County it's in, Shelby, to form a new metro government and does NOT require the
other cities in Shelby County to merge. Does this fact make you more or less likely to favor a metro government?
q23. Assuming it is proven to you that a metro government could provide better job opportunities, more state and federal resources and lower
taxes, are you more likely to support a new, metro government, or more likely to oppose it?
q24. What is your ZIP code?
q25. Gender by Observation
q26. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be more of a Conservative, Liberal, or Moderate?
q27. Please stop me when I read the correct category for your age...
q28. Which of the following best describes your race?
39
Memphis City Poll Questions Reference
q01. Do you think the Shelby County community as a whole is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
q02. Do you think the Memphis community as a whole is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
q03. How do you feel Shelby County's government is doing taking care of its citizens?
q04. How do you feel Memphis's City government is doing taking care of its citizens?
q05. In thinking about Memphis as a whole, what do you think is the one biggest problem facing our community?
q06. If a referendum were held today to form a new, consolidated City of Memphis and Shelby County government, are you...
q07. Do you think that duplication of services from the City of Memphis and Shelby County governments is...
q08. Which of these views comes closest to your own?
q09. Which of those two views would you be more likely to support?
q10. What type of government do you think Nashville has?
q11. Knowing that suburban cities and towns still exist in a metro government, are you more likely or less likely to vote for a metro government
here in Shelby County?
q12. If it's proven to you that a Metro Government would cause your taxes to go down, would you be more likely or less likely to support a
metro government?
q13. If it's proven to you that a Metro Government would maintain public services at or above their current level, would you be more likely or
less likely to support a metro government?
q14. If it's proven to you that a metro government could help create new jobs and a growing economy, would you be more likely or less likely
to favor a metro government?
40
Memphis City Poll Questions Reference
q15. If it's proven to you that a metro government could allow us to get a more equitable share of state and federal resources, would you be
more likely or less likely to favor a metro government?
q16. What do you think the biggest issue stopping Shelby County and Memphis from forming a metro government is?
q17. Which area of the City of Memphis do you live?
q18. Does knowing about the two tax districts cause you to be more likely or less likely to favor forming a new metro government?
q19. State law allows the largest city, Memphis, and the County it's in, Shelby, to form a new metro government and does NOT require the
other cities in Shelby County to merge. Does know this fact make you more or less likely to favor a metro government?
q20. Assuming it is proven to you that a metro government could provide better job opportunities, more state and federal resources and lower
taxes, are you more likely to support a new, metro government, or more likely to oppose it?
q21. Gender by Observation
q22. What is your ZIP code?
q23. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be more of a Conservative, Liberal, or Moderate?
q24. Please stop me when I read the correct category for your age...
q25. Which of the following best describes your race?

41
 End
of Metro Government
Analysis 2020 Report

Metro Government Analysis 2020

42