28/08/2020 India GDP Growth Data News: Covid-19 Crisis Makes Predicting India’s Economic Growth Harder

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Disruption Under Lockdowns: Report
Forecasts for GDP in the quarter through June range from a contraction of 15 per cent to a decline of
25.9 per cent, with a median estimate of -19.2 per cent.
Economy (c) 2020 Bloomberg Vrishti Beniwal, Bloomberg Updated: August 28, 2020 10:26 am IST

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Economists are bracing for possible big swings in the quarterly gross domestic product data

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The coronavirus pandemic has made the job of predicting India's economic Unlock 3 guidelines

growth -- already a fraught process in normal times -- even harder. Pranab Mukherjee H

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Economists are bracing for possible big swings in the quarterly gross domestic
Coronavirus Cases
product data scheduled for release on August 31 and signi cant revisions going
Galwan Clashes R
forward. The statistics o ce suspended eld surveys for several months after
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the country went into lockdown in March, resulting in substantial data gaps.
PM Narendra Modi

Forecasts for GDP in the quarter through June range from a contraction of 15 per Coronavirus Vaccin

cent to a decline of 25.9 per cent, with a median estimate of -19.2 per cent -- Share Market Today

representing the worst performance since India started reporting quarterly data Coronavirus Vaccin

in 1996. Weather Update S

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Biotique Patanjal
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28/08/2020 India GDP Growth Data News: Covid-19 Crisis Makes Predicting India’s Economic Growth Harder

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Measuring last quarter's GDP has been the “most challenging exercise in a long
TRENDING
time,” Sumedha Das Gupta, an economist at ICICI Bank Ltd., wrote in a report on
Sara Ali Khan Trolled August 25. “Di culty in gauging the extent of economic disruption under
For Her Ganesh
lockdowns may result in a starkly different number.”
Chaturthi Post. Why,
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The lack of eld surveys add to the data complexities, with output in several
sectors likely to be estimated and later revised once the hard numbers become
CBI's 10 Questions
For Rhea Chakraborty
available in coming months.
In Sushant Rajput
Case: Sources
The data gaps could “imply imputation of value-added across major sub-sectors
based on limited information from high-frequency indicators and thus prone to

"You Are So Done":

large revisions over time,” said Gaurav Kapur, an economist with IndusInd Bank
Sushant Rajput's Ltd. in Mumbai.
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Rhea Chakraborty

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Even before the pandemic, India's GDP statistics have been a source of
contention. A change in the methodology to calculate GDP introduced in 2015
CASEStrackers
made forecasting di cult, prompting some economists to use their own IN INDIA
33,87,500
of high-frequency indicators, which compare more closely with the old GDP
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28/08/2020 India GDP Growth Data News: Covid-19 Crisis Makes Predicting India’s Economic Growth Harder
series. Some are now relying on proxies to estimate output in the three months to
June.

Economists are already updating their forecasts based on numbers available

from alternative sources, like companies and tax collection.

State Bank of India's Soumya Kanti Ghosh revised his scal rst-quarter GDP
estimate to a 16.5 per cent year-on-year decline, milder than the 20 per
cent contraction previously predicted, “though with the relevant caveats in the
current uncertain scenario.”

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