MODELLING OF THE MECHANISMS TO RESTORE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

200
University of Economy in Bydgoszcz, Publishing House

Anatoliy Mokiy
Zaporizhzhya Institute of Economics and Information Technologies,
Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine

Denys Mykhailyk
Zaporizhzhya Institute of Economics and Information Technologies,
Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine

Lev Vlasenko
Zaporizhzhya Institute of Economics and Information Technologies,
Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine

Olesya Datsko
Lviv National Academy of Arts, Ukraine

THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF METHODOLOGY

FOR DETERMINING COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL POWER IN THE
CONTEXT OF POSITIONING OF UKRAINEIN INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS WITH THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Abstract. In the article, differences between Chinese and classical Western concepts of defining
and calculating comprehensive national power were analysed. The definition and
particularities of soft and hard power were outlined. Criticism of a Chinese model of
comprehensive national power by Indian scientists was highlighted. By calculating
comprehensive national power, an index of Ukraine’s position among strategic partners of PRC
was outlined. The model of possible further development of bilateral and multilateral
cooperation of Ukraine with PRC and other economic and geopolitical leaders was provided.

JEL Classification System: F60, F140, F52

Key words: comprehensive national power, economic security, international
relations, international trade, the People’s Republic of China, India, Ukraine.
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Introduction. During 2008-2017, the People's Republic of China (PRC)

has transformed from a mega-regional state into one of the centres of the
global economy with a unique concept of socio-economic organisation, theory
and practice of international relations. Because of this, the necessity of
developing a sui generis strategy for conducting bilateral relations between
Ukraine and PRC has emerged in the context of ever-increasing economic
cooperation.
The prospects of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the People's
Republic of China are covered in the works of Ukrainian scientists, namely O.
Kikitenkо, O. Bilokon. Conceptual provision of comprehensive national power
was a subject of research of Chinese scholars, namely Chin-Lung Chang, Huang
Shuofeng, Yan Xuetong, and Indian scholars, namely Malay Mishra and Manoj
Joshi. However, methodological particularities of a Chinese model of
measuring national power and consequently the position of Ukraine in the
existing hierarchy of international relations of the People's Republic of China
are not sufficiently addressed in the works of Ukrainian scholars.
The purpose of the following paper is to analyse the evolution of the
theoretical and methodological particularities of comprehensive national
power in order to substantiate the forward-looking state policy of bilateral
international relations of Ukraine and the People's Republic of China.
Over the past three decades, the People's Republic of China has been
steadily increasing its economic potential at an extremely fast pace. In 2010,
PRC surpassed Japan in terms of nominal GDP and now it is second only to USA
in terms of nominal GDP. In 1960, the volume of the nominal GDP of the USA
exceeded the GDP of the People's Republic of China by 89% (correspondingly,
543.3 and 59.18 billion US dollars), in 2015, the difference was only 39.45%
(17.95 and 10.86 trillion US dollars). At the same time, during 2010-2015 the
average annual growth rate of GDP in China was 13.76%, in the United States –
only 3.72% 154. According to V. Levkivskyi, if this trend continues, the share of
China's GDP in the global economy will increase to 20% in 2020155.

154
The World Bank Group. // Availableat:http://www.worldbank.org
155
Levkivskyi V. (2013). Ukrainian-Chinese economic cooperation in the context of foreign economic
security / V. M. Levkivskyi//Scientific bulletin of Chernihiv National Institute of Economy and
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The strategic objectives of China were set during the XIX Congress of
the Communist Party of China (CPC), held on October 18-24, 2017. In his
speech, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPC, Xi Jinping,
articulated the following main goals: building a middle-income society and full
eradication of poverty by 2020; China’s rise to the level of innovative
countries, a reduction of the gap in income levels, including the gap between
urban and rural residents; elimination of threats to environmental security by
2035. It is determined that by 2050, PRC will assume its place as one of the
leading countries in the world in terms of national power and an international
influence156.
In 2011, close bilateral relations equivalent to strategic partnership
were formed between Ukraine and PRC. However, judging from the level of
effectiveness of foreign economic cooperation and potential threats to
Ukraine's economic security from expanding and deepening ties with the PRC,
the quality of existing cooperation with this country cannot be considered
satisfactory. The reason of this inefficiency is the faults of the national strategy
of relations with the People's Republic of China and other countries in the
region of Eastern Asia.
Over the past decade, the PRC’s international economic policy was
based primarily on a unique national school of international relations
developed by Chinese scholars as an alternative to American, English, French
and other existing schools of international economics157. It should be noted
that in the world political environment, China is a major advocate of peaceful
growth of the national economy and it urges countries to avoid any use of
military or aggressive measures that can be perceived as a threat by other
leading countries158.

Management: Economy. – 2013. – Vol. 2 –P. 95-103. //

Availableat:http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/NvChdieu_2013_2_15
156
Renmin Ribao Newspaper Online. ‘Xi Jinping declared that studying and implementing the spirit of XIX
Congress of CPC is a ‘political priority number one’ // Available
at:http://russian.people.com.cn/n3/2017/1022/c31521-9283261.html
157
Korolev A. (2010) . International Relations Theory with Chinese Characteristics: State of The Art and
Tendencies of Development / A. Korolev // Problems of Far East. – 2010. – Vol. 3. – P. 96-110.
158
Kikitenko O. (2016). Soft Power of China./ Center for contemporary china "Tianxia link". // Available
at:http://www.tianxia.link/uk/article/4756-m-iaka-sila-kitaiu-na-28-mistsi-u-svitovomu-rieitingu
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The Chinese school of international economic relations is based on:

diplomatic experience; researches of Chinese scholars on the subject of theory
of international relations; other foreign theories of international relations;
unique cultural traditions of Chinese civilization; distinctive features of the
historical development of China which are not related to the characteristics of
European historical development; the projection of Marxist theory on
international relations.
As opposed to Western theories, the systemic characteristics of the
Chinese school are related to the scope of research, such as integration of PRC
into the global economy and the formation of a full-fledged actor of
international politics through the growing influence on the system of
international relations, the transformation of PRC into an independent
regional leader and gravity centre in geo-economics and geopolitics159. To
meet these challenges, it is necessary for PRC to provide the dominant growth
of national power.
National power is defined as the ability of a nation to attain its strategic
objectives by directed actions. The use of such power is based on the overall
national vision, aspirations of the people and the capability of the leadership
to fulfil them160. In other words, it is the mobilization of strategic resources to
meet national interests.
Methodological basis for the quantification of national power is
strongly associated with the evolution of the concepts ‘state’, ‘national power’
and ‘superpower’ under the influence of Western theories and only recently, it
was supplemented by the alternative concept provided by Chinese scholars.
The Western concepts of power are strongly influenced by the ‘realistic
theory’ of international relations, according to which, the distribution of power
in the international environment is an antagonistic game, when one state
accumulates power at the expense of others. Hence, the power of the state
includes military and economic components. An Indian expert on globalization
and national security, Lieutenant Colonel Malay Mishra categorizes all existing
independent states as ‘Superpowers’, ‘Great-Powers’, ‘Middle-Powers’ and

159
Kozinec A.I. (2016) Development factors of contemporary Chinese approaches in the international
relations theory / A.I. Kozinec // Bulletin of ZabGU. – 2016. – Vol. 1. – P. 66-76.
160
Bhonsle R. (2016). Strategies for Enhancing India’s Comprehensive National Power / R Bhonsle //
Vivekananda International Foundation. // Available at:http://www.vifindia.org
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‘Regional-Powers’ 161.After the collapse of the USSR and emergence of a

‘unipolar’ world, the concept of national power was neglected in Western
theories of international relations, but Asian, especially Chinese scientists in
1990-2014 developed and modernized the concept of national power in
accordance with the challenges of the global economy.In 1987, Chinese
scientists began the development of their own methodological provisions of
the analysis of national power. During the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, a
special research and analytical centres were created to study the problems of
globalization and national power162. Their objectives were to highlight and
underline the differences in national power between the People's Republic of
China and the United States.
The Chinese academic community and politicians were guided by the
principle that the victory in the modern war of nuclear states was determined
by an ensemble of components of national power, including civilian and
economic indicators. According to Chinese scientists, the USSR made a
strategic mistake by paying too much attention to the military power and
neglecting other dimensions of national power, which led to economic
stagnation and low quality of life of common USSR citizens. To prevent this
mistake, Chinese scholars included economic components and non-economic
institutional dimensions in their methodology of calculating the national
power index163.
The totality of research methods involving national power is focused on
identifying the advantages of leading countries and predicting the winners in
possible military confrontation. At the same time, national power is used to
estimate the potential of strategic partners and opponents. Modern
widespread methodology for assessing the comprehensive national poweris
usually perceived as a unique Chinese concept that has no direct connection to
Western international political economy, Marxism-Leninism or pre-XX-century
161
Мishra М. (2017). Unique Approach to Comprehensive National Power through the Lens of Kautilya’s
Arthashastra / M. Mishra // Journal of the United Service Institution of India. – Vol. CXLVII. – No. 607. –
January-March 2017. // Available at:http://usiofindia.org/
162
Deng Xiaoping, quoted in Renmin Ribao (People's Daily), February 26, 1990, quoted in Huang
Shuofeng, Zonghe guoli lun (On comprehensive national power) (Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue
chubanshe, 1992), 7.
163
Chuwattananurak W. (2016). China's Comprehensive National Power and Its Implications for the Rise
of China: Reassessment and Challenges / W. Chuwattananurak // CEEISA-ISA 2016 Joint International
Conference, Ljubljana;Manoj J. 2017. Comprehensive national power / J. Manoj // Observer research
foundation. // Available at:http://www.orfonline.org/research/comprehensive-national-power/
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Chinese socio-economic teachings.It should be noted that there is no unified

methodology for estimating the national power index. Official PRC documents
usually utilize the approaches developed by the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences (CASS) and Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations
(CICIR). Alternative models and methods of calculating the national power
index were developed by separate scientists, analytical centres and
universities (see Table 1).At the present stage of the global economy
development, the concept of nationalpower becomes more popular and
widespread, especially in the context of the haphazard emergence of the
meta-system of the new ‘world order’. According to experts from the Strategic
Studies Institute, in the context of modern globalization, expansion no longer
involves direct occupation of the foreign territory; economic, political and
cultural components are main contemporary factors of expansion.
During his speech in the U.S. Academy of Military Science in 2000, Chinese
Military Science expert Wu Chinqiuclaimed that: ‘…Victory without war does
not mean that there is not any war at all. The wars one must fight are political
wars, economic wars,science and technology wars, diplomatic wars, etc. To
sum up in a word, it is a war of comprehensive national power164.
For past decades, the challenges and threats associated with modern
‘information warfare’, the usage of computer and information networks as
elements of trade wars and political confrontation have been taken into
account by the PRC government. In 1986, the ‘Project 863’ was introduced as a
state programme of high technology development with an objective to ensure
the national technological and informational independence165.

164
Wortzel, Larry M. and Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute. The Chinese armed forces
in the 21st century / edited by Larry M. Wortzel Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
Carlisle, PA 1999
165
Wu, Hequan (2002-08-06), "The progress of communication technology subject of hi-tech research
development plan of China", International Conference on Communication Technology Proceedings, 2000
(Beijing) Т. 1: 3–4, ISBN 0780363949
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Table 1.Comparison of CNP index models

Institutions & Scholars Iranian
Western methodology Chinese methodology
methodology
№
Chin- Hu Angang, Hua Liao, Weihua
F.C. M. Small, Huang Yan M.R.
M. Mattos Lung CASS CICIR Honghua Dong, Huiping Liu
CNP Indicators German J.D. Singer Shuofeng Xuetong Hafeznia
Chang Men Yuejing Ge
‘Hard power’ indicators.
1. Population: total size, the number of workforce
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
population, etc.
2. Territory: total land area, arable land area, forest
area, etc. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

3. Mineral resources availability and utilization: iron

deposits, production of steel, aluminum, etc.
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

4. Energy resources: coal, oil, natural gas, hydropower ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

5. Economic growth: GDP growth rate, consumption
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
capability, production capability, etc.
6. Foreign trade and activity: exports, imports,
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
international and gold reserves, foreign debt, etc.
7. Military power: number of military personnel,
military expense and budget, number of nuclear ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
warheads, etc.
‘Soft power’ indicators.

8. Science and technology potential: the number of

scientists and engineers, spending on R&D, number ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
of patents, etc.
9. Education and culture: expenses on education,
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
literacy rate, etc.
10. Health care: expenditure on health care per capita,
✓ ✓ ✓
the number of physicians per 1000 people, etc.
11. Political power and stability, national leadership,
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
integrity.
12. Diplomatic power: status and role in international
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
affairs.
Source: systemized data from researches of various scholars

206
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For many years a Chinese approach to the Internet control and

perception of Chinese-language segment of the Internet as a part of national
borders, where a national law system is executed was perceived by Western
countries only as an instrument of censorship and control over the information
space, which became especially relevant for CPC after the anti-government
riots in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
Only after the dramatic increase of the role of an information factor in
the globalized economy and the growing Internet's influence on socio-political
processes, ranging from coordination of protests during the Arab Spring 2011
and ending with the controversial 2016 presidential elections in the United
States, first cautious Western publications appeared regarding the fact that
the Chinese perception of the Internet as part of national sovereignty may be
justified166.
As predicted by Chinese analysts a new type of warfare is now being
formed, warfare that will include and already includes psychological, legal, and
media components. In this case, the extra-economic, or indirectly, economic
components of the so-called ‘soft power’ of the state acquire a special
significance.
It is believed that the first concept of ‘soft power’ was outlined by an
American political scientist Joseph Nye, however, some elements of this
concept can be seen in the writings of Brazilian General Carlos de Meira
Mattos, who argued that: «…National Power as the integrated expression of all
capacities, which a nation possesses at a considered moment for promoting
internally and externally the achievement of national objectives, in spite of
whatever challenges to it»167.
According to Joseph Nye, in the concepts of national power, ‘hard’ and
‘soft’ components of power can be distinguished. ‘Hard power’, such as
military coercion, economic sanctions and other forms of direct pressure is
used to control and enslave an opponent. On the other hand, ‘soft power’

166
Denyer Simon (23 May 2016). "China’s scary lesson to the world: Censoring the Internet works". The
Washington Post. Retrieved 5 September 2017.
167
Mattos, M.; Viana, L. A Geopolítica e as Projeções do Poder; Biblioteca do Exército: Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil, 1977.
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includes the use of diplomacy, cultural values, ideology to achieve political

goals. At the same time, Nay believed that economic resources and military
potential could be related to both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ powers, thus the distinction
between these forms of state power is not clearly defined and is the subject to
discussion 168. In 2015, Chinese scholars Hua Liao, Weihua Dong, HuipingLiu
and Yuejing Ge attempted to merge ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ power into a single
indicator169.
Some Western methods of national power measurement recognize the
existence of ‘soft power’, but its importance, weight and proportion in the
composition of the national power index is significantly lower than respected
proportion of ‘hard power’. Chinese and Asian scholars claim that Western
concepts of national power follow several false assertions such as:
- Western methodological approaches to measuring national power
focus exclusively on ‘hard power’ components, which are based on economic
and military parameters and thus do not represent the comprehensive nature
of national power;
- Western scientists regard national power as a ‘container’ for
measuring resource potential without taking into account aberration factors
and non-economic parameters that significantly affect national power.
Chinese scientists have expanded the methodology for measuring CNP
beyond the conventional military and economic indicators and invented the
concept of comprehensive national power (zōnghé guólì, 综合国力).
Comprehensive national power (CNP) in Chinese interpretation represents the
idea of ‘soft power’, ‘peaceful development’ and the desire of the Chinese
nation to avoid geopolitical, external and internal conflicts. CNP includes
following humanitarian indicators: a number of implemented technologies; a
number of books per person; quality of education, etc. Developed by Chinese
academic and political-ruling elites, this concept was proposed primarily to
neutralize the likelihood of a conflict scenario as a result of the socio-economic
168
Nye, J. Notes for a soft power research agenda. In Power in World Politics; Routledge: Oxford, UK; New
York, NY, USA, 2007; pp. 162–172.
169
Liao H, Dong W, Liu H, Ge Y. Towards Measuring and Visualizing Sustainable National Power—A Case
Study of China and Neighboring Countries. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2015; 4 (3)
:1672-1692.
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growth of the People's Republic of China. According to this concept, PRC is a

‘Semi-Superpower’ that is situated in-between the USA and its geopolitical
opponents170.
According to the director of the Centre for contemporary China
‘Tianxia link’ O. Kikitenko, Chinese ‘soft power’ is composed of: cultural
products (books, movies, music, etc); 24-hour Chinese television and radio
broadcasting; education, including students transfer and participation in such
regional organizations as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN);
humanitarian aid to other Asian countries. Clever uses of following
instruments led to an improvement of the national image of PRC in Eastern
Asian and simultaneously an increase in the Chinese influence in the region.
The growth of the geo-economic power and geopolitical influence of
PRC in Eastern Asia caused increased attention to the methodology for
calculating the CNP index because this indicator represents the uniqueness of
the Chinese model of the role of geopolitics and the strategy of China’s
‘peaceful rise’ to the position of leaders in the global geo-economics. This
attention was intensified after series of publications by scientists from Eastern
Asian countries, especially from India and Thailand. The authors of these
publications criticized the very concept of CNP in its contemporary
interpretation by Chinese scholars and performed a critical analysis of the
existing methods for CNP calculation. In particular, it was noted that the
estimation methods used in China, focused on quantitative indices, in which
PRC had an absolute advantage (population and nominal GDP) and ignored
factors, where PRC ranked as a Third World country (health expenditures per
capita, GDP per capita, etc.). The majority of these critical comments were
systematized in the works of a Thai expert in Social sciences Wuttikorn
Chuwattananurak171. From our point of view, criticism by Indian and Thai
scientists represented in the works of Mr. Chuwattananurak do not properly
take into account the specifics of the Chinese socio-economic macro system:

170
Taran M.A. (2015) Ascension of China: creating harmony or spawning conflict?/ M.A. Taran // The
World of the Orient – 2015. – Vol. 2. –P. 131-139.
171
Same as 170.
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1. Indian scientists believe that the growth rates of the population in

India and the People's Republic of China and the existing demographic policy
of these countries can ensure that in 2025, India will surpass PRC and have a
larger reserve of cheap labour. Comparing the growth rates of India and the
People's Republic of China and the demographic policy of these countries,
critics do consider that ‘one family-one child’ system will never be applied to
the whole territory of the People's Republic of China, and because of this, the
population of some regions of China (Tibet, Inner Mongolia and others) may
start to grow rapidly with positive changes in economic conditions. In addition,
the systematic violations of the law led to the creation of a separate category
of unregistered inhabitants of the People's Republic of China (hēiháizi,
黑孩子), their exact number is estimated to be at least 13 million people,
which is a significant unregistered reserve of cheap workforce172.
2. Critics rightfully point out the imbalance in the development of
various regions of the People's Republic of China, emphasizing the difference
in the standards of living between urban and rural population. However, they
do not take into account the existence of a complicated system of registration
of households at the place of residence (hùkǒu, 户口), which prevents
spontaneous internal migration. In addition, the territory of China has more
climatic zones and regions comparing to India, and effective economic
development of some areas is impossible due to the complexity of living and
working conditions (part of the Autonomous Regions of Tibet and Inner
Mongolia)173.
3. Considering the quality of education, critics of the Chinese CNP
model argue that the level of literacy of the population of the People's
Republic of China is significantly inferior to some underdeveloped countries
(Mongolia, Cuba, and the Philippines). This statement does not take into
account the difference between the logosyllabic and alphabetical writing

172
Galperina M. (2014). What will happen to China's undocumented "ghost children" after the one-child
policy ends? // Available at:http://www.hopesandfears.com/hopes/now/politics/216761-china-one-
child-policy-ghost-children
173
Sheehan S. (2017). China's Hukou Reforms and the Urbanization Challenge / The Diplomat // Available
at: https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/chinas-hukou-reforms-and-the-urbanization-challenge/
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systems and the fact that two systems require a different number of hours to
be mastered at least on the basic level of literacy. For example, in PRC the
minimum level of literacy involves mastering at least 1500 Chinese logosyllabic
characters, while in Mongolia or the Philippines literacy involves learning only
35 and 28 alphabetical units respectively 174.
4. Indian scholars claim that the English language proficiency is an
indisputable positive indicator that has a significant impact on integration into
the global environment. However, they do not take into account the existence
of dialects of the English language, and the gradual transformation of ‘Indian
English’ into a macaronic language with its own grammar. The widespread use
of such macaronic languages does not improve the development of an
international trade and diplomatic understanding; and in theory, it may even
be an obstacle in cultural exchange175.
5. Wuttikorn Chuwattananurak points out that China's military
spending is deliberately underestimated and evaluated with bias. At the same
time, it is not taken into account that there is no universal method of
calculation of a military budget. The final numbers presented in military
spending of each country are defined by the interpretation of the financial
statement and thus can be easily manipulated according to the principles of
national policy (some countries want to overestimate their military budget,
while others want to remain as secretive as possible about their military
potential)176.
6. Critics express doubts about China's nuclear potential because of the
fact that this country does not have any deployed nuclear warhead ready for
immediate use. The conflict revolving around the DPRK nuclear programme in
2015-2017 and the fact that even this country has developed its own means of
delivering nuclear weapons clearly indicate that the reluctance of the People's
Republic of China to have their own deployed nuclear warheads is not a

174
Sarangi J. (2004). "Indian Variety of English: A Socio-Linguistic Study" / In Mohit Kumar Ray. Studies in
ELT, Linguistics and Applied Linguistics.Atlantic Publishers & Distributors. – P. 50.
175
Same as 24
176
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI. // Available at: https://www.sipri.org/
212 MODELLING OF THE MECHANISMS TO RESTORE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
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consequence of technological backwardness, but an important element of a

consistent policy of a ‘peaceful rise’.
In our opinion, the main methodological mistake of the most active
critics of the Chinese methodology of the CNP evaluation is the substitution of
the concepts. By claiming that CNP is not ‘comprehensive’, critics emphasise
comprehensive threats and risks, and not comprehensive opportunities. By
doing this, they practically replace the indicator of comprehensive national
power with a peculiar indicator of comprehensive national vulnerability that
serves an entirely different purpose – to determine the economic, military or
political vulnerability of the country.
Excessive complication of the methodology for calculating CNP can also
lead to false results. For example, the modern economy of Central Africa and
South America confirms that the presence of significant volumes of natural
resources does not necessarily mean their effective use. On the other hand, an
example of Iran during the reign of Shah Pahlavi proves that diplomatic
recognition and a universal acclaim of a country in the international political
environment does not guarantee its internal political stability. At the same
time, the nuclear arsenal is undoubtedly linked to the scientific and
technological potential, industrial power, but not always tied with the stable
economic growth.
The most complex CNP indicator was proposed in 2015 by a group of
Chinese scholars and based on the modification of the model created by an
Iranian scientist Mohammad-Reza Hafeznia177. This method consists of 39
interconnected parameters and some of them, especially in the dimension of
‘soft power’, are highly controversial.For example, the method utilizes vague
or subjective parameters such as ‘good governance’ and “gender equality”;
cultural potential in the following method includes a number of Olympic
champions, while a number of Nobel laureates is not taken into account; it is
also proposed to include the number of produced full-length movies as a
reflection of the ‘cultural strength’ of a country without considering quality or

177
Hafeznia M.R. , Zarghani S.H., Ahmadipor Z., Eftekhari A.R. (2008). Presentation a New Model to
Measure National Power of the Countries./ M.R. Hafeznia, S.H. Zarghani. Z. Ahmadipor, A.R. Eftekhari //
Journal of Applied Sciences. – Vol. 8. – P. 230-240.
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international recognition of the produced movies (for example, Nigeria is the

second producer of full-length movies in the world and, clearly, it is not a
contributing factor to its international cultural influence178). At the same time,
this method ignores such extremely important parameters as a number of
Internet users, quantity of websites in the national language, availability and
control over social networks, cyber security, etc.
A much more reasonable approach was proposed by an expert of the
United Service Institution of India, Malay Mishra. Mr. Mishra has not only
conducted an analysis of Western and Chinese methodological approaches to
the CNP measurement, but also offered his very own concept of national
power based on an ancient Indian treatise on statecraft, economic policy and
military strategy ‘Arthashastra’ written by an Indian philosopher Chanakya
(Kautylia) in 2nd century BC. The idea of national power proposed by Mr.
Mishra can be described as an antithesis to the Chinese model that is based on
classic works of Confucius and Sun Tzu and at the same time, as an attempt to
create a new unique model of CNP that will include specific features of Indian
national mentality such as strict hierarchy, the caste system and by using
them, modernise the very concept of national power according to the
challenges of the modern global economic and political environment179.
The constructive approach of Malay Mishra and his associates proves
that Indian scholars are struggling to create their own school of international
relations with related terminology, and thus actually repeating the path of
their Chinese predecessors: they are considering the tools and theories that
China – as the present regional leader – is using, and trying to understand the
causes of India’s backwardness by adapting these theories and methods to the
specifics of its national mentality and economy. At the same time, the main
difference between the Indian approach and the Chinese one is the perception
of CNP as an independent utilitarian element of the national state policy,
which necessarily requires practical implementation.

178
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNESCO // Available at:
https://en.unesco.org/
179
Same as 8
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This lengthy discussion is of considerable interest to Ukrainian scholars

because both Ukraine and India face similar asymmetry of power and related
threats to national security while dealing with neighbouring regional leaders.
According to the expert on national security of India, Manoj Joshi: «…The
Chinese challenge is not about guns and submarines, though the disputed
border and the Sino-Pak nexus signify the need to up our guard. It is about
CNP, for which, the military is an important element, but not the only one. We
need a compound national strategic effort to enhance all the CNP elements.
…It means a society working at a much higher level of efficiency than the one
we have now. It means a different kind of the military, not the World War II
kind of force we have today. Nevertheless, more importantly, we need socially
cohesive India, led by people with a constructive and forward-looking agenda.
The most importantly, we need to understand that there are no shortcuts.
What you see in China is what began 30 years ago» 180.
This understanding of the impossibility of an open asymmetric
confrontation with China is a reason of increased attention of the Indian
academic and political-ruling elites to the role of ‘soft power’ parameters in
the methodology of measuring CNP.The main goal of studying the different
existing theoretical concepts of CNP is not to create an index that a specific
country woulduse to achieve a higher rank in the existing hierarchy, but to gain
an understanding of existing imbalances of power between a specific country
and its geopolitical partners and opponents. This is why the utilization of CNP
can help to determine Ukraine's position in the Chinese hierarchy of
international relations, and will provide important data, which can serve as a
basis for development of an effective strategy of bilateral communication
between Ukraine and PRC.
Among the most commonly used and suitable methods for determining
CNP are the model proposed by Chin-Lung Chang in 2004, that includes three
modified methods originally developed by Ray Cline 181:

180
Same as 11
181
Chin-Lung Chang. A measure of national power. // Available
at:www.analytickecentrum.cz/upload/soubor/original-measure-power.pdf
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(CM + ES + MS) ENGYK

CNPK = L Q×S W,
3 ENGYV
(1)

POPUK AREAK
CMK = S W × 100 + S W × 100 ,
POPUV AREAV
(2)

GNPK
ESK = S W × 200 ,
GNPV
(3)

MSK = ] ` × 200,
ME^
ME_
(4)

where CNP – comperhensive national power; CM – critical mass;

POPUK –total population of a country i; POPUV – world’s total population;
AREAK – total area of a country i; AREAV – world’s total area; ES – economic
strength; GNPK – gross national product of a country i; GNPV – world’s total
gross national product; MS – military strength; MEK – military expenses of a
country i; MEV – world’s total military expenses; ENGYK – energy consumption
per capita of a country i; ENGYV – world’s average energy consumption per
capita.
The energy consumption ratio reflects the consumption of oil per
capita, military costs are estimated according to the Stockholm Institute for
the Study of Peace (SIPRI). It should be noted that in some cases this might
lead to a discrepancy between the data of international organisations and the
official national statistics. In the following models, a numerical value (200) is
used for the convenience of calculation. When added to the critical mass, it is
distributed equally to its two components: territory and population (by 100).
One must note that the calculation of global indicators is biased by
limitations of international statistics. As mentioned above, there is no reliable
method for determining the actual size of the military budgets of different
countries and regions in comparable values (for example, in US dollars),
national statistic reports are often scrutinized by authorities and cannot be
verified using the mirror analysis method. Similar difficulties may arise in
determining other involved indicators such as energy consumption per capita
and GDP.
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To avoid divergences related to the conversion of national currencies

into US dollars, adjusted by inflation, world prices, the following calculation
was made by using data from open sources of international organisations such
as the World Bank.
The methodology for evaluating CNP is also characterized by certain
limitations that must be taken into account when considering relations with
each individual country. For example, the EU countries partially delegate
national security to NATO and common institutions of the EU, thus their CNP
index may be lower than in certain countries of Africa or South America
(mainly because each country of the EU does not have separate armed forces
and thus contributes part of its CNP to NATO).
Because of these limitations, the CNP index cannot be used as the only
indicator that defines the level of strategic cooperation and economic security.
It is appropriate to combine CNP with other methods of an econometric
analysis. Nevertheless, the results of the calculation of CNP (see Table 2 and
Figure 1) and its dynamics correspond to the basic trends in the development
of the global economy and are a reliable way to measure the rank of a
particular country or megaregion in the global geo-economic and geopolitical
meta-system.
The results of the calculation are divided into the following groups:
Superpowers and regional leaders (CNPK ≥ 5); Powerful regional states (CNPK ≥
2); Developed countries (CNPK ≥ 1); Stable states (CNPK ≥ 0,5); Micronations
and failed states (CNPK ≤ 0,5).

Table 2. The comprehensive national power index of Chinese strategic

partners, 2015
Group Country (Comprehensive National Power, CNP)
І. Superpowers The USA (152.8); the Russian Federation (23.83); Canada (17.95);
and regional Australia (12.06); Germany (10.28); France (9.08); the Republic of
leaders Korea (7.9); Great Britain (7.14); UAE (5.15)
ІІ. Powerful Brazil (4,38); Italy (3.79); India (3,37); Spain (2.62); Kazakhstan
regional states (2.54)
 MODELLING OF THE MECHANISMS TO RESTORE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY 217
University of Economy in Bydgoszcz, Publishing House

Mexico (1.94); Argentina (1.57); Turkey (1.47); Poland (1.43); the

ІІІ. Developed
Republic of South Africa (1.36); Indonesia (1.21); Venezuela
states
(1.05); Malaysia (1.07); Thailand (1.03)
Algeria (0.88); Ukraine (0.8); Chile (0.77); Denmark (0.7); Nigeria
ІV. Stable states
(0.65); Greece (0.51), Angola (0.22)
Turkmenistan (0.49); Portugal (0.42); Pakistan (0.41); Ireland
(0.39); Afghanistan (0.33); Vietnam (0.29); Peru (0.28); Belarus
V. Micronations
(0.27); Uzbekistan (0.24); Serbia (0.13); Laos (0,1); Myanmar
and failed states
(0.09); Sri Lanka (0.06); Mongolia (0.4); Cambodia (0.03);
Kyrgyzstan (0.03); Tajikistan (0.01)
182
Source: authors’ own calculations based on the World Bank statistics .

As of 2015, Ukraine (CNPbcd = 0.8) is part of a group of stable states, which

also includes Algeria (CNPefg = 0.88), Greece (CNPhdi = 0.51), Denmark
(CNPejc = 0,7), Nigeria (CNPjhg= 0.65) and Chile (CNPikl= 0.77).
However, for Ukraine, there exists a negative tendency towards the
decrease in CNP: over the past 24 years, the Ukrainian CNP index has fallen by
1.28 points. This caused the change of the position of Ukraine in international
relations with China. In 1990, PRC considered Ukraine to be a strong
megaregional state; in 2015, Ukraine is regarded by PRC as an irrelevant
Eastern European country. If this trend continues, Ukraine will be ranked as a
‘failed state’ in the nearest future. It needs to be noted that PRC views failed
states solely as a source of cheap raw materials. If Ukraine falls to this position,
any prospects of a strategic partnership with PRC will be impossible 183.

182
See 1
183
Chen Jun (2014).China's foreign trade policy in globalization.// Electronic scientific edition "Effective
Economy". – 2014. – Vol. 11. //Available at: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=3555
218 MODELLING OF THE MECHANISMS TO RESTORE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
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Figure 1. Interconnection between the total bilateral trade with PRC and
comprehensive national power (CNP) of the most important strategic partners
of PRC, 2015

184
Source:authors’ own calculations based oninternational trade statistics data .

It can be argued that a certain interconnection exists between

openness in a bilateral trade with PRC (total trade turnover) and
comprehensive national power (CNP), which is particularly noticeable in case
of Canada, Russia and the USA (see Figure 1). An exception to this trend is
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Republic of Korea. These countries have
common borders with China and are part of the regional trade and economic
blocs (ASEAN + 3) or have concluded free trade agreements with PRC. In the
light of this, it can be assumed that PRC effectively uses the components of the
comprehensive national power index in shaping its foreign trade policy. Hence,
it is expedient to use the CNP index as one of the auxiliary indicators in
evaluating the efficiency and security of trade relations with the People's
Republic of China.

184
International Trade Center. //Availableat: http://www.trademap.org
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Conclusions. The systematization, synthesis and analysis carried out in

this paper allow us to propose conceptual provisions of the model of
contemporary cooperation with the People's Republic of China. The main
parameters of this proposed model are the intensity of bilateral trade between
Ukraine and PRC and the ranking of Ukraine in the Chinese hierarchy of
international relations.The model is based on the assumption that because of
the political and economic confrontation with Russia, Ukraine’s Eurasian
integration is no longer possible or purposeful. On the other hand, full-scale
European integration is postponed to a remote perspective. This is why
currently Ukraine desperately requires equilibrium in relations with the major
centres of geo-economics, especially in the aspect of international trade.
Ukraine has unique ‘intermediate’ position in-between superpowers,
semi-superpowers and regional states in the geographic, economic, and
ideological dimensions. According to the proposed model, the position of
Ukraine in the global environment should be determined by an established
rationally expedient distance to countries, which are now considered
geopolitical ‘gravitational centres’ (the USA, the EU, Russia, and China). This
model will ensure Ukraine’s economic and political security because, in the
situation, when one of the ‘gravitational centres’ tries to reduce the
established distance, this may automatically lead to the reaction of others. The
transit-transport potential of Ukraine has special significance in the strategic
equilibrium model because it will transform Ukraine into the main transport
artery between PRC and the EU and, accordingly, it will strengthen the stability
and security of international relations of our country. It should be noted that
this does not deny, but even reinforces the need for a sound and rational
external economic policy of cooperation with other countries.