Exercise on Annual Forecasting (Quantification)

Stock Record Card

Name of health institution Sabian Health Center Average Monthly consumption _____________________
Drug Metronidazole 250 mg of 100 x 10 Capsules
Quantity
Issued To or Unit Expiry
Received From Losses/ Price Date Remark
Date Received Adjustment Issued Balance

1/11/2002 Beginning Balance     16 370.00 5/2013

20/11/2002 Dispensary   8 8

28/11/2002 PFSA Dire Dawa Branch 30   38 372.00 4/2014

16/12/2002 Dispensary 9 29

12/01/2003 Dispensary 8 21

15/02/2003 Dispensary   10 11

2/03/2003 Dispensary 9 2

17/04/2003 Dispensary 2 0

25/05/2003 PFSA Dire Dawa Branch 34  34 378.00 7/2015

26/05/2003 Dispensary   5 29

18/06/2003 Dispensary   4 25

04/07/2003 Dispensary  4 21

20/08/2003 Dispensary   5 16

04/09/2003 Dispensary   4 12

19/10/2003 Dispensary   4 8

30/10/2003 Physical Inventory -4 4

Questions:

Referring to the above sample stock record card for Metronidazole 250 mg of 100 x 10 capsules find out:

1. Calculated Consumption (CC) for 2003 EFY?

2. Consumption Adjusted for Days Out of Stock (DOS)?
3. Annual Consumption Adjusted for Service Expansion/Contraction (i.e. Assume Quantity Required for 2004
EBY)? (Note: Consider service expansion of 10 % in 2004 EBY).
4. Average Monthly Consumption?
5. Months of Stock at the end of 2003 EBY?
6. Finally, fill the information on the provided table of request.

1|Page
Table of Request to be submitted to Dire Dawa PFSA Branch

Quantity Adjusted for Service

Calculated Total price
Unit Expansion/Contraction
Quantity Adjusted for
price Consumption in Days Out of Stock (Quantity Required for 2005
Stock Out in 2003 EBY
2003 EBY in 2003 EBY EBY)
S/N DESCRIPTION Unit
(E) (G)
(D) (F)
E=Cx365/(365-DOS)
(A) (C) G=(FXA)
F = E+10 % of E

1. Metronidazole 100 x10 378.00

250 mg capsule

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

2|Page
Solution:

1. The Calculated Consumption (CC) for the previous EBY?

Calculated Consumption (CC) = The total amount of product issued out of the pharmacy store

CC = Beginning Balance + Quantity Received +/- Loss & Adjustment – Ending Balance

(i.e. Sum of the quantities in the issue column of the Bin Card/Stock Record Card for the period under consideration)

Therefore;

CC = 16 + (30+34) – 4 – 4 = 72 (Metronidzole 250 mg of 100 x 10 capsules)

2. The Consumption Adjusted for Days Out of Stock (DOS)?

Days Out of Stock (DOS) = The total number of day a product was out of stock.

To find DOS, simply count the number of days of stock out.

Consumption Adjusted for Stock Out = C (DOS) = CC X 365 = Annual Consumption for 2003 EBY

365 – DOS

Therefore;

DOS = 38 days

C (DOS) = 72 X 365 = 72 X 1.12 = 80.6 = Annual Consumption for 2003 EFY

365 – 38

3. The Annual Consumption Adjusted for Service Expansion/Contraction (Quantity needed for the coming
year)?

Quantity Adjusted for Service Expansion/Contraction = Annual Consumption of Previous EBY +/- Quantity for Service

Expansion/Contraction

Therefore,

Quantity to Order for 2005 EBY = Annual Consumption (2003 EBY) + 10 % of Annual Consumption (2003 EBY)

= 80.6 + 0.1 (80.8) = 88.7

4. The Average Monthly Consumption (AMC)?

3|Page
 Average Monthly Consumption = AMC = Annual Consumption for 2003 EBY
12

Therefore;

AMC = 80.6/12 = 6.7

5. The Months of Stock of Metronidazole 250mg of 100 x 10 capsules at the end of 2003 EBY?

Months of Stock = MOS = Stock on Hand / AMC

Therefore;

MOS at the end of 2003 EBY = Stock on Hand / AMC = 4/7.4 = 0.54 months (i.e. two weeks of stock).

4|Page
 6. Table of Request to be submitted to Dire Dawa PFSA Branch

Quantity Quantity Adjusted for Service

Stock Calculated Adjusted for Total price
Unit Expansion/Contraction
Days Out of
Price on Consumption in Stock Out in (Quantity Required for 2005
Stock in 2003
Hand 2003 EBY 2003 EBY EBY)
S/N DESCRIPTION Unit EBY
(G)
(E) (F)
(D)
(A) (B) (C) E=Cx365/(365- H=(GXA)
DOS) F = E+10 % of E

1. Metronidazole 100 x10 378.00 4 72 38 80.6 88.7 33,528.60

250 mg capsule

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

5|Page