TIPSTERS

GUIDE
TO SELECT
THE BEST SPORTS TIPSTERS
 Would you like to
WIN MONEY BETTING
but you do not have time
to look for the information and
analyze in detail
lthe MATCHES statistics?
HAVE YOU BEEN BETTING
FOR A LONG TIME BUT
YOU ARE GUIDED
FOR YOUR HEART AND
YOU LOSE MUCH MORE
THAN YOU WIN?

THE SOLUTION
CAN BE FOLLOWING
PROVEN BETTING
EXPERTS
IN DIFFERENT SPORTS
AND BET WHAT THEY RECOMMEND
 BUT BE CAREFULL!!

NOT ALL THAT

GLITTERS IS GOLD

Most of the TIPSTERS that offer their tips in blogs or social networks
are not able to provide with real value and WILL MAKE YOU LOSE
MONEY.

This is the reason why we have elaborated this GUIDE, to know how
to differentiate the wheat from the chaff, to differentiate between the
good and the bad tipster, to filter who is more likely to make you win
money in the long run and who will make you lose it.
 INTRODUCTION

Analyse the Tipster “verified” statistics

Choose specialized tipsters in a single sport

Do not trust the “Preacher Tipsters” that use to speak with

too much confidence and promote themselves excessively
with a questionable marketing

Consider the odds drop and the tipster service

subscription costs to estimate your potential winnings
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Take into account the bookmaker where the tipster tips

Choose Tipsters with a defined strategy who do not make

strong swings

Choose Tipsters who know that winning in betting is about

finding VALUE odds and not about guessing winners

Free tipsters or paid tipsters?

0 We’ll tell you what variables you SHOULD TAKE INTO AC-
COUNT when choosing real experts that will produce a positive
return in your bankroll in the long run.

Even so, we can never assure you that by following these ex-
perts you will earn money.

BEWARE of those who speak to you with too much confidence

in an uncertain world like the sports betting one. However, you
will substantially raise your chance of SUCESS.

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 1
These are the VARIABLES YOU MUST CONSIDER to select the best tipsters.

First one, THE TIPSTER’S STATISTICS, the one that is the most talked about. And it’s
obviously very important, it’s key. But if we want to improve and fine-tune the selection
process, we recommend you to pay attention to the other 6 factors that, although more
qualitative, should also be considered.

Analyse the Tipster

“verified” statistics

It’s, without any doubt, the most important variable when deciding if trusting
or not any specific tipster. IF THE TIPSTER CANNOT OFFER YOU A VERIFIED
TRACK RECORD in a platform like Pyckio or another one, BEWARE.

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An Excel created by the tipster and po-
tentially manipulable is NOT A VALID OP-
TION. If you read several times
the word “SCAM” along
We do not mean that all those who do with the tipster name
not have their statistics audited by a third
party can be cheating, not at all. But it is
DISTRUST.
a fact that the risk of this occurring is hi-
gher.

There are cases of recognized prestigious

tipsters and fully reliable that have been
running a website or blog for a long time,
in which they themselves witness that the
statistics are correct. They are known in
the betting niches and they have a good
reputation in social networks.

But this is not the norm. Therefore, if you

meet tipsters whose statistics have been
created by them, just do an investigation
in Twitter or Google to know more about
the tipster reputation. If you see several
sometimes the word “scam” next to the
tipster name, beware. Although not all the
tipsters platforms are reliable, you can
trust that the statistics you will see in the
great majority of them are true.
Of course, those platforms where
is not the tipster the one who makes
the pick resolution, but the platform,
such as Pyckio, are preferable. We
are the ones who solve the bets and
therefore the tipsters cannot manipu-
late their results.

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IF THE TIPSTER DOES NOT OFFER YOU ANY TYPE OF STATISTICS and he
only sells you his knowledge and experience about the sport, NEVER HAPPENS TO
CONTRACT HIS SERVICES. There are great analysts in many sports who can be a
disaster as punters or tipsters. The knowledge and mastery of the sport is a necessary
requirement but not enough to win in sports betting. It’s one thing to have the infor-
mation and another one to know to what extent that information is already reflected or
not in the odds. I can know that a team is going to play with all the substitutes, but if
this information is already known and priced by the market, there could be no value in
betting against this team.
Statistics are the Tipster’s DNA
and therefore you must analyse his
verified stats before trusting him. PYCKIO
VARIABLES we consider
more important and
that must be taken into account
when performing the analysis:

Y Yield or ROI
(return on investment)

IN PYCKIO LS Yield LS
(Level Stakes)
WE GIVE EACH TIPSTER
A RATING (0 TO 5) DE-
PENDING ON SEVERAL N Number of bets
and time as a tipster

VARIABLES

R The return on
capital or ROC

V Volatility

D Maximum drawdown
Y
El Yield or ROI (return on investment):
The Yield is the percentage of money or
units earned with respect to the amount
bet. Long-term Yields >5% are rare and
pure gold.
LS El Yield LS (Level Stakes). differs from
the normal Yield because it takes into ac-
count that we have always bet the same
amount in each bet. We recommend that
you always ask for this ratio, since it avoids
manipulations. The manipulations can be
produced by the following reason. There
are tipsters that, with the passage of time,
have accumulated very good results in an
initial stage and decide to “protect” their sta-
tistics betting less per bet. When decreasing
the size of their bets with lower stakes (bet
amount, in units or in euros), the importance
of the new set of results in the aggregated
Yield goes down, so statistics can still look
bright when they really are not so good. Let’s
see an example. A Tipster makes 500 bets
and all the stakes are of 10 units. He achie-
ves a benefit of 400 units, what is a Yield of
10% (400 / (500x10)) = 0.08 = 8.0%. Su-
ddenly he begins to do only 1 unit stakes.
And in the next 500 bets the results are null,
neither wins nor loses; a Yield of 0%. Howe-
ver, in the global set of the 1000 bets, the
Yield would be 400 / ((500x10) + (500x1)) =
0.0727 = 7.27%. We can see this is an un-
real Yield, fruit of having lowered the stake to
1 unit in this second round of 500 picks. The
Tipster has protected his initial Yield of 8%.
He has tipped 500 bets without any profit
and the Yield has only dropped to 7.27%.
Although this is an extreme case, there are
tipsters who perform this type of practice
to protect their past good results, not be-
ing as transparent as they should be. With
only the standard Yield ratio, we cannot see
if this has occurred, but we can know it with
the Yield Level Stakes ratio. It is not the first
time we see tipsters with a very high Yield
but with a much lower Yield LS, due to this
practice.
Number of bets and time as a tips-
N ter. The higher the number of bets the
more valid the tipster results are. It is
not the same a Yield of 10% in 100
bets that the same Yield in 1,000 bets.
In the short term, the luck factor plays
a very important role and anyone can
get a Yield of 10% in few bets. But as
the number of bets grows, the luck
factor become less important and the
skill of the tipster arises. In Pyckio the
vast majority of our PRO Tipsters have
made more than than 1,000 picks and
several exceed the 2,000 figure. On
the other hand, that a tipster has been
submitting his tips for several years is
a very good sign of its regularity, con-
tinuity and commitment to this activity,
professional for some of them. Do not
trust tipsters who send several hun-
dred of tips every month. Unless they
have a mathematical model that pro-
vides them with their selections (there
are some cases that we know) it is very
difficult to find value bets in such a high
number of picks.
N
The return on investment or ROC (re-
turn on capital). Even if the tipster or
platform does not offer it, this is a figure
D Maximum drawdown. It is the
maximum loss suffered in the past
(either in points or percentage over
that can be obtained with the Yield, the the initial banking) and is another risk
number of bets placed and the recom- measure, closely linked with the vo-
mended stake. It is a consequence of the latility.
rest of the variables. In Pyckio for example
we offer the Return data of the investment
for each tipster under the assumption that
1.5% of the bank is risked on each bet.

V The volatility This is a variable used in

financial markets that practically nobody
uses in the betting sector but that we in-
cluded in Pyckio when determining the
Rating of the Tipsters, as we consider it
very important.

In statistical terms, a low volatility for a tipster indi-

cates that the probability of deviation of its poten-
tial yield against the current yield is low and vice
versa. In other words, it’s more likely that in the
future his yield will deviate less from the current
one and therefore his “current” yield is more re-
liable. The volatility is closely related to the stakes
management and the odds level. Let’s see it with
an example. Imagine a Tipster that carries a Yield
of 0% in 500 picks and suddenly makes a 100.0
bet and he wins it, what makes his Yield go from 0
to 20% after this bet. That is, fruit of chance, of a
single bet, a tipster goes from “not being nobody”
to having a Yield of 20% in 501 picks. Although
this is an extreme example, we think it is very cla-
rifying why volatility should be taken into account
when analyzing tipsters’ results. Our Rating would
penalize this tipster. We do not want to affirm that
it’s not a good tipster, but that the influence of luck
has been too high to give validity to this 20% Yield.

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2 Choose specialized tipsters
in a single sport

TO MAKE MONEY BETTING IS SO TOUGH

THAT IS REALLY STRANGE THAT A TIPSTER
CAN EXCEL IN SEVERAL SPORTS

To win money betting it is essential

to master all the information related
to the sport in question. The good
En PYCKIO
tipster will spend hours analyzing
the information and relevant statis- WE’VE GOT HAVE
tics at the time of betting. Surely PRO TIPSTERS SPECIALIZED
there are cases of good tipsters
in several soccer leagues, inclu-
IN VOLLEYBALL,
ding those who use mathematical TENNIS ATP, TENNIS WTA,
models in which they provide with PORTUGUESE FOOTBALL,
many different picks in different
soccer competitions for example, US BASKETBALL, ETC.
but the normal thing is that the
best tipsters specialize only in one
sport or even in one or two com-
petitions.

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3
Do not trust the “Preacher Tips-
ters” that use to speak with too
much confidence and promote
themselves excessively with a
questionable marketing

Sports betting is a business whose cake (represented by

the money lost by most of the players) is shared between

the bookmakers (mainly) and a small group of sharp bettors.

That is, it is very difficult to win in the long term.

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 Therefore, if you see TIPSTERS THAT If you see TIPSTERS THAT PRO-
SPEAK TO YOU WITH TOO MUCH MOTE THEMSEVELS EXCESSI-
CONFIDENCE, VELY WITH A QUESTIONABLE

MARKETING,

A RE
A RE BEW
BEW
If you see TIPSTERS THAT PRESUME of
If you see TIPSTERS THAT SPEAK
the money they earn or that even show
TOO MUCH ABOUT THEIR WINS
you screenshots of the thousands of eu-
BUT TOO LITTLE ABOUT THEIR
ros they bet and win (anyone can mani-
LOSSES,
pulate a screenshot) or luxury travels that

A RE
BEW
are paid with their bets ...

THE BEST TIPSTERS don’t usually presume of their

results in the short term because they are aware that
luck affects more that skill in such short time periods.

That a tipster has tens of thousands of followers on Twitter does not imply they are
good, not at all. What’s more, the vast majority of them are tipsters to avoid. They
are great professionals, but in the marketing field; great experts in selling smoke.
Always research on Twitter or Google what is said of a Tipster before trusting him.

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4
Consider the odds drop and
the tipster service subscrip-
tion costs to estimate your
potential winnings

When hiring the services of a Tipster you have to take into account the
associated costs. Some are explicit costs, such as the SUBSCRIP-
TION COST. In most cases this is a monthly cost, although in some ca-
ses, as in PYCKIO, THE COST IS FOR EACH TIP. We believe that it is a
fairer way, since we cannot charge the same for a Tipster that submits
20 picks per month than by another one that sends 80. Being the Yield
the same, the second tipster is going to make us win 4 times more. You
must consider the size of your bankroll when deciding whether to hire
the services of a tipster. You must have a bank large enough (several
thousand of euros) so that it can be profitable for you paying to receive
the picks of a tipster. With very small bankrolls the costs of the subs-
cription can eat all or almost all your potential earnings.

On the other hand, we must also take into account the odds drop.
The statistics of all the tipsters are made taking into account the exis-
ting odds in the moment when the tipster sends his tip. But the odds
at which the tipster’s customers make their real bets are, in general,
lower. The reason is double. On one hand, if THE TIPSTER IS GOOD
AND IS ABLE TO PERCEIVE VALUE IN THE BETS HE RECOMMENDS,
ON AVERAGE, AS THE MATCH START TIME GETS CLOSER, THE PRI-
CE WILL GET LOWER.

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If he is able to see value in that price, the market is likely to correct that inefficiency
sooner or later. On the other hand, there is the tracking factor.

The best tipsters have many followers and when they recommend a bet the
money wagered by their customers or followers makes the bookmakers
lower their odds in response to that demand.

If they receive a lot of money favoring of a team, they will have to lower that price and
raise that of the rival team to better manage their risks. Obviously, the intensity of the
decline of these odds depends on the sport, the market and the importance of the
game. In a Champions League final there is no Tipster that will move the market, but in
a Tennis match of a Challenger tournament a tipster can produce very sudden move-
ments that make the recommended price not have any value and even the value can
be on the opposite side, on the picked player’s rival, after the tip is launched.

The time factor is also important; that is, when the tipster post his pick. It is not the
same to publish a pick when odds have just gone out than near the beginning of the
match. In the first case a single bet from a follower can make that price go down hard.
They are odds that some bookmakers dare to launch at the beginning and 1) they
usually accept very little money because they are aware that they could be prices far
away from the true price and they know they can be wrong and 2) they are going to
move them strongly downward as soon as they see a certain inflow of money. Thus, we
can affirm that they are unrealistic odds and little operative, that the tipster followers
will not enjoy.

Even so, there are tipsters who do not care about this and make these type of picks
often because they just want to show good statistics and care little about the real bets
of their followers. In this sense, in our opinion the TIPSTER MUST SEEK A BALANCE:
do not publish very early, since practically nobody will be able to make the bet at a
reasonable price, but do not tip always near the closing either because in that moment
the efficiency is in general higher and it is much more complicated to find value odds.

Virtue is in the middle, although this depends a lot on the sport, the market and the
match in which the tipster submits his selection.

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5
Here there are basically 2 cases.

There are the tipsters that predict in all the bookmakers, and here
we include “retail” bookies, such as Bet365, Marathonbet, 888,
Bwin, etc.

Take into account

the bookmaker where the
tipster tips

They usually target players from countries where Pinnacle

is not available. The tipster usually choose the best odds
among all the available. In many cases the best price is that
of a retail bookie. The problem here is that these odds can
be many times unreal because these bookmakers usually
limit the winners, so if the results of your account in that
book are good, sooner or later they will limit your winnings
(you will only be able to bet some few euros) or they will
even close your account. In this case, you’ll have to obtain
a friend’s or relative’s account to continue betting in that
bookie and make this process again until you run out of
friends and relatives. It is very sad and unfair that a bettor
can lose all the money the bookies want without anything
happening, but if he wins the bookmaker can directly “get
rid of him”. This is how the sector works and the politicians
are not brave enough to put in place measures that could
prevent these practices. Everything is due to the powerful
lobby of this sector. Recently we have known that Ireland is
studying measures so that this does not happen and there-
fore winning punters are not banned.

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About the tipsters who tip at PINNACLE
SPORTS odds, the house for professional
punters par excellence, the advantage is
that Pinnacle will never limit your winnings
and it’s the bookmaker with the lowest
margins in the industry, which makes their
odds very attractive.

They are normally tipsters who approach more

professional or semiprofessional bettors with
higher banks. The disadvantage is that Pinna-
cle Sports is not available in many countries
with strict national gambling regulations.

In PYCKIO
all odds of all If you do not have access to bet on Pin-
nacle directly in your country (Pinnacle
our TIPSTERS does not even allow you to open an ac-
are from PINNACLE count if you are a resident of some coun-
exclusively. tries) there are brokers / betting agents
that do allow it to be done, even if it is
not legal either.

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It is essential that the tipster you hire has a defined strategy and that you can
verify in his track record that he hasn’t made any strong swing in his strategy.

Strong swings are for example suddenly changing the staking policy, signi-
ficantly change the number of picks sent every month, make some kind of
bets that were not previously made, change the type of odds or submit tips
in new competitions.

One thing is that the tipster tries to evolve continuously to try to maintain or im-
prove his results and another thing is make sudden and strong movements. Mo-
reover, if these changes come after a period of losses, they are not likely to bring
anything good. A common mistake of some tipsters is to increase their stakes to

6
recover losses, after a bad run. If you see a tipster doing it, run away.

Choose Tipsters with a defined

strategy who do not make
strong swings

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You can find below examples of well-defined and very uni-
form strategies of some of our tipsters.

We have for example 2 great tipsters specialized in ATP

Tennis exclusively.

One of them has average odds of 2.60 and we can see

that month by month, the average odds of their picks is
around this level. One month can be higher, another lower,
but it’s always a high average price.

And we have another ATP tipster that also obtains great

results, but with a lower price, close to 2.0 and you can
also see a great uniformity month by month.

We also have a specialized Tipster in Portuguese

Football with odds close to 2.0, another Internatio-
nal Football Tipster that specializes in finding value
at home teams at high odds, another one specia-
lized in Volleyball with average odds below 1.70, a
WTA Tennis Tipster and some more cases.

If we detect that suddenly any of them changes

abruptly his strategy, this would be something that
would worry us, more if the change comes after a
bad run of results.

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 7 Choose Tipsters who know that
winning in betting is about
finding VALUE odds and not
about guessing winners
This point is key when it comes to choose
a Tipster and it is only analysable if we can
read the comments that the tipster makes
in social networks or blogs.
The betting business is not about guessing
winners but about finding odds with value.
When a tipster says that he sees value in
any specific bet, he is really meaning that
the probability he gives to a specific match
result is higher than the implicit probabili-
ty in the odds. If the tipster sees value in
the victory of Valencia over Real Madrid at
a 6.20 price, he is implicity affirming that for
him the probability that Valencia will beat
Madrid is higher than (1 / 6.20) = 16.13%.
If we play roulette, dice, etc ... we know the
exact probability that a certain number will
comes out. But in sport events it is impos-
sible to know the probabilities of occurren-
ce in advance. For this reason the concept
of “value” does not have any meaning in
the short term. Those who bet use to try to
make a priori reading about how the match
can be, but they are not fortune tellers.
They do not have the crystal ball to know if
a player suffers from an injury, if a team has
a bad day, if the referee is going to make a
mistake, etc. The evolution of the games is
marked by random components that is im-
possible to know in advance.
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In summary, it does not make sense to say, as I have won the bet, the bet had
value or as I have failed, it did not have it. The concept of value has meaning
in the long term. If a tipster or bettor, in a high number of bets has been able to
get very positive results, we can implicitly say that their forecasts have provi-
ded with value and that he has been able to estimate the odds better than the
bookmakers or the market. Winning in betting implies to estimate, even uncons-
ciously, the probabilities of occurrence of a match better than the bookmaker,
in the long term. But Value is a concept that only makes sense in the long term.
In the short term luck or uncertainty have much more influence than our skill or
experience.

Well, in many occasions we can read on social networks comments from tips-
ters who, although talk about “value”, do not really know really what this world
is about. They are Tipsters that when are in a good run talk about how hard
they are working and analyzing the picks or even the other way around, asking
for forgiveness in a period of bad results and promising to work hard to turn
it around. They are not aware of the random component of betting in the long
term, that value only arises in the long term, that there is not a close causal rela-
tionship between good analysis and good results in the short term.

The best tipsters are those who don’t worry about the day-to-day results becau-
se they rely on their model or form of work, trust in the way they “fabricate” their
forecasts and know that the short term is fundamentally random.

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8 Free tipsters
or paid tipsters?

Finally, we would like to talk about the difference be-

tween free tipsters, which you can find on Twitter, Tele-
gram or blogs and the paid tipsters

On one hand, we want to affirm that all paid tipsters are

not profitable, not at all. Not even more than half of them.
That a Tipster is paid, premium, PRO or whatever we call
him does not mean that the probability of you winning
money if you follow him is very high.

You have to analyze case by case and see the criteria

under which a Tipster becomes premium or a paid tips-
ter.

It may be that he has personally decided it on the basis

of a good historical track record, he may have done it
because is someone popular without even having good
numbers or it can be because his results have been ve-
rified on a tipsters platform

In any case, the requirements of each platform are di-

fferent, there are those who are more demanding and
those who are not so strict.

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 We at PYCKIO know that we are very demanding in terms of the
statistics that we require the Tipster to become a PRO and be able
to sell their picks on our platform.

Still we have Tipsters that after entering the PRO area get out of it in some time because
their results get worse. This will always happen. But on average we can presume that many
of our PRO Tipsters have been producing good results for several years and that the higher
the requirements to become a paid tipster the lower the probability of future negative results
and vice versa.

About the Free Tipsters, it’s even more complicated than you can make money with them
in the long term, although without any doubt there are some that will make it. The reason is
that a real tipster, who has proved his skills in the past, will sooner or later receive an offer
to offer his paid picks on a tipsters platform or he himself will set up his own website or his
own business via blog, Twitter or Telegram.

But there are some cases of good tipsters who offer their tips for free during an initial period
to acquire future and potential customers.

There are others who require you a subscription in a bookmaker in exchange, as a way
to earn some income. They refer the client to the bookie and in exchange they receive a
commission, that can be a fixed amount (CPA) per referred account or a percentage of the
money lost by the customer (revenue share) during the entire time they bet on that bookie.
This is how the Affiliation sector works in Sports Betting.

In this second case, the conflict of interests is undeniable. Here we can differentiate the
honest tipsters who work with this model not because they want to make their clients lose
money with their recommendations, not at all. They want their forecasts to be successful.
But they are aware that bettors make many bets, not just those recommended by them, and
that in the long term most of the punters will lose money, even though they make them win

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with their picks. And the revenue share model is the one that gives them the most benefits
in the long term
.
But then there are also the “scam tipsters” we’ve talked about before, who refer dozens of
players to the houses every month because they are verybrilliant with marketing, not be-
cause their results are good. They care little that their results are positive because they do
not offer statistics or even manipulate them and the amount of money they will earn with
the losses of their customers is very high.

In PYCKIO we DO NOT work with a revenue share model. If we refer

to a bookmaker as Pinnacle Sports for example our income is limi-
ted to a percentage of what the client is betting, we do not charge
anything for the losses of the users that we refer.

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