THE Karachi floods have exposed Sindh’s lack

of preparedness for climate disasters. We’ve

seen similar knee-jerk reactions during
heatwaves, droughts, floods and cyclones,
repeatedly crippling the provincial economy.
Pakistan’s development strategists have failed
to effectively respond to the climate crisis.
Sindh leads in this grand failure, where
despite decades of development investments,
climate vulnerability and the poverty trap
have befallen more people.
Sindh has become a climate hotspot, with overlapping
extreme climate events visiting poor areas with
growing frequency. Average temperatures are
increasing, rains becoming erratic, sea levels rising,
Indus water flows decreasing, Indus delta dying,
aquifers drying, groundwater depleting, ecosystems
degrading; while contamination, waterlogging and
salinity are surfacing; and internal migration adding
to urban sprawl in flood-prone areas. Karachi is a
classic case study of the damage wrought by a failure
to invest in climate-resilient municipal infrastructure.
The slow onset of climate change has been
scientifically measured over decades. Between 1951-
2000, summer temperatures in Sindh increased more
than in several other parts of Pakistan. According to
the Meteorological Department, the warming trend
was greater in winters, with winters getting shorter
and summers longer, and the minimum temperature
in central regions increasing every summer. The
projected temperature increase is higher than the
global average. Rainfall has become unpredictable,
leaving southern Punjab and upper Sindh in a state of
near-permanent water shortage.
This has serious implications for what we grow, when
we grow, and what we produce to consume or export,
ie the heart of food and water security. For several
years, there’s been a steady decline in wheat-sowing
area. Untimely rainfalls have damaged cotton and
wheat crops, making farmers switch to water-
intensive sugarcane (nowhere else in the world is
sugarcane or rice grown in a desert). Food production
is extremely sensitive to water availability and
temperature variability. As temperatures rise, it will
fall a further 10 per cent by 2040, with wheat and rice
most affected as both the yield and length of the
growing season decreases. IASA has projected an 11pc
reduction in wheat production by 2050, inevitably
decreasing its affordability.
Sindh has become a climate hotspot.
Between 1951-2000, annual precipitation increased in
coastal areas. According to UNEP, Pakistan is among
the countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels.
Karachi’s sea level has risen at a faster rate between
1993-2010 than in the entire period up to that point
since 1856. This leads to saline-water intrusion in
coastal areas and marine ecosystems, land erosion,
flooding, inundation, salinisation of water supplies,
and a negative impact on agriculture and fishing. The
Indus is ranked third among the world’s most at-risk
deltas.
In short, all Sindh’s eco-agricultural zones are in the
grip of this slow onset, though its policymakers have
yet to fully grasp this. Clearly, the rate of return on
decades of annual development plans (ADP) does not
justify business as usual. Sindh therefore needs to
develop an investment plan for the short to medium
term:
First, develop an adaptation plan with district- and
tehsil-level projects. The National Climate Change
Policy has already identified areas of adaptation.
ADPs need to align with provincial and local
adaptation needs. Business as usual will only further
expose urban and rural populations to risk.
Second, focus on resilience instead of adaptation
alone, which is a more precise concept in the
international climate lexicon. It can open up new
investments in climate-resilient urban and rural
development; propel Sindh towards new economic
activities like integrated coastal area planning, saline
agriculture, brackish water fisheries and domestic
ecotourism; and enable new public-private
partnerships, as resilience is more measureable for
international climate finance.
Third, establish an insurance or risk transfer fund
based on ‘loss and damage’. Deeply contested in
climate negotiations between developed and
developing countries, the concept goes beyond
adaptation to reflect the loss of coastal areas, heritage
sites or even culture due to climate-induced disasters.
This will create a safety net for its victims.
Fourth, lay the foundation for a new climate economy
that seeks economic development and climate risk
mitigation by focusing on five central areas of Sindh’s
economy: energy, cities, food and land use, water, and
industry. Transformational change in these systems
with private investments and climate-smart
technologies can help create a people-centred growth
model.
Given the present tight fiscal space, Sindh has no
option but to attract finances for climate-smart
infrastructure, promote innovation and transparency,
and engage with local stakeholders.
The writer is an expert on climate change and
development.
Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2020