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Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123
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World Conference on Transport Research - WCTR 2016 Shanghai. 10-15 July 2016

A car-accident rate index for curved roads: A speed choice–based

approach
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji a,a, *, Hideyuki Kita aa, Jian Xing bb, Shoichi Hirai bb
a Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 657-8501, Japan
a
Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 657-8501, Japan
bb
Nippon
Nippon Expressway
Expressway Research
Research Institute
Institute Co.,
Co., Ltd.,
Ltd., 1-4-1
1-4-1 Tadao,
Tadao, Machida,
Machida, Tokyo
Tokyo 194-8508,
194-8508, Japan
Japan

Abstract
Abstract

We
We employ
employ asas aa speeding-accident
speeding-accident raterate index
index the
the probability
probability ofof an accident caused
an accident caused by
by speeding
speeding onon aa curved
curved expressway.
expressway. This
This is
is
defined as
defined as the
the probability
probability that
that the
the actual
actual speed
speed of
of aa car
car entering
entering aa curve
curve exceeds
exceeds the
the maximum
maximum safe safe speed
speed of
of the
the curve
curve in
in
accordance
accordance with
with the
the driver’s
driver’s perceived
perceived speed.
speed. The
The aim
aim ofof this
this paper
paper is
is to
to consider
consider advantages
advantages of of the
the proposed
proposed index
index through
through
driving
driving simulation
simulation experiments
experiments forfor comparison
comparison with
with existing
existing indices.
indices. The
The results
results show
show that
that inducing
inducing aa perceived
perceived speed
speed that
that
reduces
reduces the
the difference
difference between
between the
the perceived
perceived speed
speed and
and maximum
maximum safesafe speeds
speeds is
is an
an effective
effective measure
measure for
for reducing
reducing speeding
speeding
accidents
accidents in
in curves.
curves.
©
© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.
B.V.
© 2017 The under
Peer-review Authors. Published by
responsibility of Elsevier
WORLDB.V. CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of WORLD
WORLD CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE ON ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
SOCIETY.
Keywords:
Keywords: Road
Road traffic
traffic accidents;
accidents; Accident
Accident rates;
rates; Incident
Incident probability;
probability; Driver
Driver perception;
perception; Speed
Speed utility;
utility; Curved
Curved expressway;
expressway; Driving
Driving simulatior
simulatior

1.
1. Introduction
Introduction

In
In considering
considering effective
effective measures
measures against
against speeding
speeding drivers
drivers on
on expressways,
expressways, it it is
is important
important to
to focus
focus on
on the
the relation
relation
between of
between of the
the risk
risk of
of speeding
speeding accident
accident risks
risks and
and driver
driver perception
perception toward
toward that
that risk.
risk. To
To analyze
analyze the
the relation
relation between
between
the
the two,
two, rather
rather than
than the
the total
total accident
accident rate
rate (defined
(defined as
as the
the number
number ofof traffic
traffic accidents
accidents per
per hundred
hundred million
million vehicle-
vehicle-
kilometers),
kilometers), an
an index
index reflecting
reflecting the
the accident
accident risk
risk as
as perceived
perceived by
by drivers
drivers unaware
unaware of of speeding
speeding would
would provide
provide aa better
better
analytical
analytical index.
index.

*
* Corresponding
Corresponding author.
author. Tel.:
Tel.: +81-78-803-6079;
+81-78-803-6079; fax:
fax: +81-78-803-6013.
+81-78-803-6013.
E-mail
E-mail address:
address: yotsutsuji@people.kobe-u.ac.jp
yotsutsuji@people.kobe-u.ac.jp

2214-241X
2214-241X ©© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.
B.V.
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of WORLD
WORLD CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE ON ON TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT RESEARCH
RESEARCH SOCIETY.
SOCIETY.

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.404
2114
2 Hirofumi
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita,Yotsutsuji
Jian Xingetand
al. Shoichi
/ Transportation Research Procedia
Hirai / Transportation 25C (2017)
Research 2113–2123
Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

On expressways, the risk of a speeding accident is thought to be strongly correlated with horizontal curve radius.
The total accident rate for speeding accidents may be appropriate for globally analyzing such correlation. However,
in the case of a particular curve radius that makes drivers unaware of speeding, an index incorporating structures of
both speed perception and drivers’ speed choice is required, rather than the total accident rate. In such cases, we
need to analyze the structure of driver speed perception.
Statistical surveys of traffic accidents on expressways in Japan show that the percentage of speeding accidents
due to false perceptions is larger than that due to other factors in fatal and injury accidents. Also, the occurrence ratio
of false-perception accidents is higher on curved roads than on straight roads in cases where the driver is primarily
responsible for the accident. Thus, when considering the structure of speed perception on curved expressways, we
need to focus on of the risk of speeding accidents based on false perception.
We define such incidents as a phenomenon where drivers select an assumedly safe speed that exceeds the
maximum safe speed of a curve, meaning the maximum speed at which it is objectively possible to pass through the
curve. In this study, we formulate the probability of such an incident, which is hereinafter referred to as the “incident
probability,” reflecting the perception structure of drivers who are unaware of speeding under assumptions of speed
choice based on speed utility.
The aims of this study are twofold. One aim is to estimate the incident probability in curvature radii of 200 to 500
m by conducting a driving simulation experiment and a speed perception experiment, thereby providing a new
speeding-accident rate index for curved expressways. The other aim is to determine whether the proposed index is
advantageous compared with the existing total accident rate, from the viewpoint of the relation with curvature radius.

2. Related studies

Regarding the relation between road length and traffic accident black spots in horizontal curves on interurban
expressways in Japan, Hirai, Xing, Hayashi and Ochika [1] reported that the proportion of the number of black spots
per length of curves to the number of black spots per total road length increased as curve radius decreased, and that
curve radii smaller than 500 m accounted for the greatest proportion. As for the relation between accident
occurrence frequency and horizontal curve radius on interurban expressways in several countries, Elvik [2] reported
that for curve radii of at least 200 m, the relation between them was represented by using an accident modification
function common across countries, which was developed to relate curve radius to accident rate. Elvik’s proposed
accident modification function indicated that accident rates in horizontal curves are expressed by a power function
of the curve radius for curve radii of 200 to 1,000 m.
In both traffic engineering and traffic psychology, driver perception toward accident risk has long been
researched. Summala [3] proposed zero-risk theory, which states:
Concerning both a subjective probability distribution of the maximum vehicle speed at which a driver can
safely pass through the curved section and a subjective probability distribution of the vehicle speed at
which the driver goes into the curve at the end of a straight section connecting the curved section, the
driver recognizes that the speeding risk is zero because a safety margin has been set between both the
distributions. However, the speeding risk exists as an exceedance probability when feet of the objective
probability distributions corresponding to the subjective ones have been actually overlapped. Once the
driver experiences some kind of incidents derived from overlapping the objective probability distributions,
the driver may adjust the level of accident risk.
Traffic engineers argue that this theory ignores behavioral hypotheses regarding choice of safety margin. At the
same time, we accept that traffic engineers are less likely to focus on psychological theories like the zero-risk theory,
although ample knowledge about drivers’ perception toward accident risks has been acquired in traffic engineering.
Hence, based on a concept influenced by the zero-risk theory, we construct a model of incident probability.

3. Method

Following previous studies by Usuzaki, Kita, and Tanimoto [4], Yotsutsuji and Kita [5], and Yotsutsuji, Kita, and
Kitamura [6], this chapter introduces our modeling framework influenced by the zero-risk theory.
 Hirofumi
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Yotsutsuji
Kita, et al.
Jian Xing and/ Transportation
Shoichi Hirai /Research Procedia
Transportation 25C (2017)
Research 2113–2123
Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 21153

Fig. 1. Speed perception structure in a curved section (Yotsutsuji, Kita and Kitamura [6]).

Fig. 2. Definition of incident probability.

Yotsutsuji, Kita, and Kitamura [6] proposed the speed perception structure illustrated in Fig. 1. They assumed
that when drivers enter curves at the maximum speed that they perceive as safe, the subjective values of the speed
targeted by the driver are stochastically distributed. Following this, we refer to the maximum speed determined by a
curve radius as the “maximum safe speed,” expressed as a constant value v̂o . We refer to the subjective probability
distribution of the perceived maximum safe speed as the “target speed,” expressed as a random variable v̂s . We
refer to the subjective probability distribution of the actual approach speed as perceived by the driver as the
“perceived speed,” expressed as a random variable vs . Finally, we refer to the objective probability distribution of
the actual approach speed of the vehicle as the “actual vehicle speed,” expressed as a random variable vo . This vo
corresponds to the vs that the driver perceives when approaching the curve without looking at the speedometer.
Here, subscripts s and o denote subjective and objective values, respectively.
Fig. 2 illustrates the definition of the incident probability proposed in this paper. On the basis of the zero-risk
theory, although vs has a safety margin toward v̂s , a speeding-accident risk exists because the right tail of the
distribution of vo exceeds threshold v̂o . Probability density functions (PDFs) in Fig. 2 describe the relations among
v̂o , v̂s , vo , and vs . In Fig. 2, the exceedance probability of π (vo | vs , vˆs ) toward v̂o , which is expressed as
Pr(vo ≥ vˆo | vs , vˆs ) , is the incident probability proposed in this paper, where the PDF of v̂s , the PDF of vs subject to
v̂s , and the PDF of vo subject to both vs and v̂s are expressed as f (vˆs ) , π (vs | vˆs ) and π (vo | vs , vˆs ) , respectively.
The relation among the PDFs in Fig. 2 is tested through revealed preference analysis based on a hypothesis
regarding speed choice behavior. We hypothesize that the driver discretely chooses vs , which is perceived on the
basis of v̂s when the driver enters the curve. The speed choice behavior for vs is modeled by a latent-class logit
model using v̂s as the latent class. Then, assuming that the driver has a speed utility of vs , we express the speed
utility function as V (vs | vˆs ) . In addition, a likelihood function of vs subject to vo is expressed as f (vs | vo ) .
Identifying π (vs | vˆs ) , π (vo | vˆs ) , and f (vs | vo ) on the basis of data obtained from some in-house experiments, we
estimate π (vo | vs , vˆs ) by applying Bayes’ theorem. Based on the result of this estimator, we estimate the incident
probability Pr(vo ≥ vˆo | vs , vˆs ) . Fig. 3 shows a flowchart of the estimation procedure.
2116
4 Hirofumi
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita,Yotsutsuji
Jian Xingetand
al. Shoichi
/ Transportation Research Procedia
Hirai / Transportation 25C (2017)
Research 2113–2123
Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Fig. 3. Estimation procedure.

4. Models

We express the curve radius as r ∈ {200, 300, 400, 500 m}. Discretizing with respect to each 5 km/h in a range
from 60 to 110 km/h, we define a set of 5-km/h-wide intervals as the set of latent class v̂s and a set of median values
of the intervals, which consists of ten elements given in {62 km/h, 67 km/h, ..., 107 km/h}, as a choice set of vs .
More precisely, for driver j in a curve with radius r, we respectively define the i-th alternative of vs and the k-th
alternative of v̂s as vsr,i, j and vˆsr,,kj . For speed utility function U (vs | vˆs ) of driver j, we define the random utility
model as

 v r, j 
U j (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj ) = V (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj ) + ε ir,k, j = γ kr vsr,i, j + exp[λrk ] − exp λrk sr,,i j  + ε ir,k, j , (1)
 vˆs ,k 

where γ kr and λrk are parameters and ε ir,k, j is an error term.

Error term ε ir,k, j in equation (1) indicates a choice error of driver j choosing vsr,i, j based on vˆsr,,kj . If the true
perceived speed is 64 km/h and the chosen alternative is 62 km/h, for example, then the error is 2 km/h, and this
error cannot be observed. Because the observed value is not the true perceived speed but the chosen speed, we deal
with the previous or next 5 km/h-wide interval as the range of the choice error.
Previous research, including Tarko [7], Matsuo and Hirobata [8], and Yotsutsuji and Kita [9], postulate that speed
utility can be described by a single-peaked function in which an arbitrary speed produces a critical point of the speed
utility. A single-peaked pattern like this can reflect a psychological trade-off between fast and safe, which means
that the driver wants to pass through the curve as quickly as possible but not exceeding a speed too high to avoid
traffic accidents. Equation (1) is modeled based on the same postulation. The parameters γ kr and λrk in equation (1)
indicate fast driving and safe driving, respectively. Fig. 4 describes the speed utility function represented by
equation (1).
Setting an imputed probability of vˆsr,,kj belonging to the latent class k as πˆ kr , we can describe π (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj ) of
driver j as
 Hirofumi
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Yotsutsuji
Kita, et al.
Jian Xing and/ Transportation
Shoichi Hirai / Research Procedia
Transportation 25C (2017)
Research 2113–2123
Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 2117
5

Fig. 4. Image of speed utility function. Fig. 5. Image of the driving simulator screen.

K
exp[V (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj )]
π (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj ) = ∑πˆ r
for j (2)
∑
k I
k =1 exp[V (vsr,h, j | vˆsr,,kj )]
h =1

∑πˆ
k =1
r
k =1 , 0 ≤ πˆ kr ≤ 1 . (3)

The parameters γ kr and λrk can be estimated by maximizing a log-likelihood function ln Lr , defined as

 δ ir, k, j 
 K   
J
 J K I
r, j 
J I
 exp Vi,kr , j 
ln Lr = ∑
ln Lrj = ∑ ∑ ∏ π (v
ln  πˆ kr r, j
s ,i
r , j δ i ,k
| vˆs ,k )  = ∑ ∑ ∏ ln  πˆ kr   , (4)
∑
I
j =1 j =1  k =1 i =1  j =1  k =1 i =1  Vhr,k, j  
  h =1  

where δ ir,k, j = 1 if driver j chooses vsr,i, j based on vˆsr,,kj and otherwise δ ir,k, j = 0.
In equation (4), parameters γ kr and λrk are calculated through the EM algorithm, on the assumption of the
following conditions (see Appendix A).

λrk > 0 , vˆsr,,kj ≤ vsr,i, j (5)

By Bayes’ theorem, after having calculated π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k ) = E j [π (vsr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj )] in equation (2), π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) can
be calculated as

f (vsr,i | vor, j )π (vor, j | vˆsr,k )

π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) = , (6)
π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k )

where the prior distribution π (vor, j | vˆsr,k ) and the likelihood function f (vsr,i | vor, j ) are estimated based on the
result of a driving simulation experiment and a speed perception experiment.
Following the Japan Road Association’s Commentary and Practice in Road Structure Ordinance [11], we define
the maximum safe speed v̂o as

vˆor = 127r (α + β ) , (7)

where α and β are the transverse slope in a section with curve radius r and the coefficient of friction between the
vehicle’s tires and a dry surface, respectively.
2118 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123
6 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

5. Experiments

5.1. Participants and environments

Participants in the driving simulation and speed perception experiments were 15 undergraduate and graduate
students with some driving experience. Experiments were conducted between 10:00 and 12:00 on weekdays from
November 28 to December 19, 2014.
Environments were simulated as a daytime dry road surface with right-hand curves and long straight sections
connecting the curve sections. Hirai et al. [1] reported that there are more black spots in rightward curves than in
leftward curves in Japanese interurban expressways, where drivers drive on the left side of the road. The length of
straight sections connecting curves was set as 2.5 km so that it was easy for participants to recognize the curve at the
start point of the straight section and thereby choose a free-flow speed.

5.2. Driving simulation experiment

The purpose of the driving simulation experiment is to obtain data about vsr,i , vor, j , and vˆsr,k . Here, vsr,i and vˆsr,k
are substituted by values of driver utterances, meaning an answer from the choice set according to speech act theory
or illocutionary force theory as suggested by Austin [10].
We installed a roadside warning sign at the beginning of the curve section and a traffic sign along the straight
section announcing the upcoming curve 100 m prior to it. Accordingly, we assume that participants in the straight
section look at the speedometer just before the upcoming curve announcement sign. The participants uttered vˆsr,k at
the time of recognizing curve radius r while driving in the straight section. The speedometer was not displayed in
the straight section between the two signs. The participants uttered vsr,i at the moment when they passed the first
sign, at which point the actual vehicle speed vo was recorded and vor, j was chosen according to vsr,i from the choice
set of vs . Based on the obtained data, we estimated π (vor, j | vˆsr,k ) in equation (6), and specified π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k ) by
maximizing equation (4).
Fig. 5 shows the driving simulator screen when a participant was located 300 m from the upcoming curve
announcement sign.

5.3. Speed perception experiment

The purpose of the speed perception experiment is specifying the probability distribution of vsr,i subject to vor, j .
While watching an animation playing at constant speed vor, j , the participants uttered vsr,i as perceived as the play
speed of the animation. From this, we estimated f (vsr,i | vor, j ) in equation (6).
The animation was recorded at a constant flow speed in a driving simulation without a speedometer display. We
prepared ten animations, each of which participants watched eight times. All animations were randomly presented to
eliminate order effects.
Finally, since π (vor, j | vˆsr,k ) and π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k ) are estimated through the driving simulation experiment and
f (vsr,i | vor, j ) is estimated through the speed perception experiment, we can estimate π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) by equation (6).

6. Results

6.1. Parameter estimation

Table 1 shows the results of estimating parameters of the latent logit model described in equation (2). From this,
we plot π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k ) , the denominator of equation (6), as a lognormal probability.
We can confirm from the results that a curve radius r ∈ {200, 300, 400, 500 m} approximates a normal
distribution. To illustrate, Fig. 6 shows the case of r = 300 m.
We also created a lognormal probability plot of π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) as calculated by equation (6). Here too, we
confirmed that the plot for a curve radius r ∈ {200, 300, 400, 500 m} approximated a normal distribution. Fig. 7
shows the case of r = 300 m.
 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123 2119
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 7

From π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) , we can estimate the incident probability Pr(vo ≥ vˆo | vs , vˆs ) . Table 2 shows the results of
estimating the incident probabilities for a curve radius r ∈ {200, 300, 400, 500 m}. Preparing two values of vˆsr,k
corresponding to the curve radii listed in Table 1, we estimated incident probability Pr(vo ≥ vˆo | vs , vˆs ) for the two
values with regard to each vsr,i . Fig. 8 shows the case of r = 300 m and vsr,i = 75 km/h.

6.2. Existing index calculation

We calculate the existing total accident rate to compare the incident probability with the total accident rate in
black spots. We define the annual number of traffic accidents (accidents per hundred million vehicle-km)
standardized by the average annual daily traffic volume (vehicles per day) and road length of black spots (km) as the
existing total accident rate. We calculate this rate using traffic accident data and horizontal road alignment data
provided from the East, Central, and West Nippon Expressway Companies. Traffic accident data are total traffic
accidents involving fatal or injurious accidents and property damage accidents over three years from 2010 to 2012.
Property damage accidents are included because we want to investigate black spots posing all accident risks.

Table 1. Estimated parameters of the speed utility function.

Curve Radius Target Speed Parameter Parameter Curve Radius Target Speed Parameter Parameter
r (m) vˆ
r
s ,k (km/h) γ r
k λ r
k r (m) vˆ
r
s ,k (km/h) γ r
k λrk
65 0.625 1.000 80 0.305 1.000
70 0.444 2.000 85 0.125 2.000
75 0.100 1.300 90 0.999 1.300
200 400
80 1.300 0.500 95 1.300 0.500
85 0.168 0.400 100 0.476 0.400
90 0.298 1.600 105 0.354 1.600
70 0.110 1.000 85 0.001 1.000
75 0.070 2.000 90 0.094 2.000
80 0.999 1.300 95 0.999 1.300
300 500
85 1.300 0.500 100 1.300 0.500
90 0.476 0.400 105 0.233 0.400
95 0.354 0.051 110 0.040 1.600

Fig. 6. Lognormal probability plot of π (vsr,i | vˆsr,k ) (r = 300 m). Fig. 7. Lognormal probability plot of π (vor, j | vsr,i , vˆsr,k ) (r = 300 m).
2120 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123
8 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Table 2. Estimated incident probabilities.

Curve Radius Perceived Speed Target Speed Incident Curve Radius Perceived Speed Target Speed Incident
Probability Probability
r (m) v r
s ,i (km/h) vˆ
r
s ,k (km/h) r (m) v r
s ,i (km/h) vˆ
r
s ,k (km/h)
60 75 0.132 70 95 0.009
60 80 0.017 70 100 0.001
65 75 0.225 75 95 0.049
65 80 0.045 75 100 0.011
70 75 0.340 80 95 0.074
70 80 0.085 80 100 0.017
75 75 0.540 85 95 0.138
200 400
75 80 0.205 85 100 0.033
80 75 0.772 90 95 0.283
80 80 0.397 90 100 0.096
85 75 0.858 95 95 0.587
85 80 0.516 95 100 0.242
90 75 0.893 100 95 0.674
90 80 0.561 100 100 0.291
60 85 0.001 70 105 0.000
60 90 0.000 70 110 0.000
65 85 0.039 75 105 0.001
65 90 0.007 75 110 0.000
70 85 0.080 80 105 0.002
70 90 0.017 80 110 0.001
75 85 0.227 85 105 0.006
300 500
75 90 0.075 85 110 0.001
80 85 0.310 90 105 0.030
80 90 0.097 90 110 0.005
85 85 0.497 95 105 0.064
85 90 0.205 95 110 0.005
90 85 0.698 100 105 0.138
90 90 0.380 100 110 0.016

Following Hirai et al. [1], we identify black spots through the following steps. Firstly, based on black-spot maps
[12] [13] [14] published by the three expressway companies, curved sections in the main lines in all regions except
those in the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions are identified. Tohoku and Hokkaido are excluded because while we
simulated dry road conditions, these regions are located in northern Japan, and are thus subject to frequent road
surface freezing. Then, curved sections with radii up to 500 m are identified based on the horizontal road alignment
data. Finally, from among these curved sections, black spots with at least 30 traffic accidents are identified.
Fig. 9 shows the results of calculating the total accident rate (TAR) derived by the above procedure for each
horizontal curve radius. The TAR includes property damage accidents, so its value is about eight times the value of
the existing total accident rate. Fig. 9 supports the traffic accident modification function proposed by Elvik [2],
which proposes that the number of traffic accidents gradually decreases as horizontal curve radii becomes 200 to
500 m.
 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123 2121
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 9

Fig. 8. Probability distribution of actual vehicle speeds and incident probabilities exceeding the maximum safe speed for the case of curve radius
300 m and perceived speed 75 km/h. The plot on the left is the cumulative probability distribution and that on the right is the probability density
distribution.

Fig. 9. Total accident rate calculated in this paper. Fig. 10. Incident probabilities estimated with regard to each perceived speed.

7. Discussion

The TAR illustrated in Fig. 9 does not clearly explain whether accidents were caused by driver misperceptions.
This means that only visible traffic accidents are considered, and incident backgrounds for the visible accidents are
not considered. In this section, we discuss the advantage of the proposed incident probability as compared with the
TAR. Fig. 10 displays the relation between incident probability and curve radius with regard to perceived speed. In
this regard, each incident probability shown in Fig. 10 represents an average of two incident probabilities estimated
from two values of vˆsr,k with regard to each vsr,i , shown in Table 2.
Comparing Figs. 9 and 10, we obtain the following results: Fig. 9 shows that the TAR gradually increases as the
curve radius decreases from 500 to 200 m. Fig. 10 similarly illustrates that the incident probability gradually
increases, regardless of the perceived speed, as the curve radius decreases from 500 to 200 m. As shown in Fig. 10,
the difference in incident probabilities between perceived speeds of 70 and 90 km/h gradually increase to high levels
as the curve radius decreases. In the case of curve radius 200 m, the difference reaches at least 0.5.
2122 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123
10 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Based on the definition of incident probability, these results can be considered as follows: According to the
Commentary and Practice in Road Structure Ordinance [11], the designable minimum radius for a horizontal curve
of 200 m corresponds to a design speed of 60 km/h. Although the maximum safe speed and the design speed are not
necessarily equal, for the sake of simplicity we consider this to be a suitable maximum safe speed. A driver who has
perceived vsr,i as the perceived speed just before the curved section can adjust the actual vehicle speed based on vˆsr,k
as the target speed. As shown in Fig. 10, if the difference between perceived speed vsr,i and maximum safe speed vˆor
is 10 km/h, which means that the perceived speed is 70 km/h, then the incident probability is no more than 0.2.
However, if the difference between vsr,i and vˆor reaches 30 km/h, then the incident probability exceeds 0.7. In sum,
in the case of curve radius 200 m, the difference between the incident probabilities reaches 0.5, as the discrepancy
between vsr,i and vˆor is expanded from 10 to 30 km/h.
Consequently, in the case where the horizontal curve radius is from 200 to 300 m, a high probability is
considered to depend on the the perceived speed relative to the maximum safe speed just before the curved section.
This suggests that traffic safety measures for reducing perceived speed are required for curves with radius 200 to
300 m, so as to decrease the difference between the perceived speed and the maximum safe speed.
In contrast, Fig. 9 illustrates that the TAR gradually decreases as the curve radius increases from 200 to 500 m,
although the TAR remains high after radius 300 m. Fig. 10 illustrates that the incident probability gradually
decreases regardless of the perceived speed as the curve radius increases from 200 to 500 m. In particular, for a
curve radius of 500 m, the incident probability approaches zero regardless of the perceived speed (Fig. 10), yet the
TAR does not (Fig. 9).
Based on the definition of incident probability, these results can be considered as follows: According to the
Commentary and Practice in Road Structure Ordinance [11], the designable minimum radius for a horizontal curve
of 500 m corresponds to design speed of 90 km/h. When perceived speed vsr,i ranges from 70 to 90 km/h, the
difference between vsr,i and vˆor becomes zero or negative in the case of a maximum safe speed of 90 km/h. However,
as shown in Fig. 9, visible traffic accidents do not vanish in the case of a curve radius of 500 m. In sum, the
incidents background for speeding accidents in curves with radius 500 m are not likely to be associated with driver
speed perception.
Consequently, in the case of a horizontal curve radius from 300 to 500 m, accident rate indices differing from the
incident probability proposed in this paper are considered to be required. For example, accident rate indices that
suppose other incidents like variance of the target speed need to be developed.

8. Conclusion

We proposed a car-accident rate index based on the probability of an incident caused by speeding drivers in
curved expressways. The aim of the study was to consider advantages of the proposed index, through driving
simulation and speed perception experiments, in comparison with an existing index like total accident rate. The main
result showed that in curves with radius 200 to 300 m, there was a great degree of difference among incident
probabilities depending on discrepancy between the perceived speed and maximum safe speeds. Measures that
reduce discrepancies between these perceived speeds, such as road surface markings just before curves, are therefore
considered effective for reducing speeding accidents. Quantitative assessment of the active safety effects of such
measures requires resolution of the mechanisms by which perceived speed is induced.
We clearly incorporated the speed choice of drivers into the Bayesian updating described in equation (6), but
nevertheless we calculated the log-likelihood function in equation (4) through the driving simulation experiment. As
Yotsutsuji and Kita [15] described, we believe that the foundation of the log-likelihood function indicates
intervention of an inducement mechanism based on the discrepancy between the perceived and actual vehicle speeds.
In future work, if we can reflect such a mechanism in estimating the log-likelihood function, we will be able to
realize models for predicting speed inducement effects.

Acknowledgements

We thank Mr. Satoshi Hamanaka, who helped with the experiments and estimations as a student assistant. This
work was supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) “KAKENHI” grant number 25420548.
 Hirofumi Yotsutsuji et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 2113–2123 2123
Hirofumi Yotsutsuji, Hideyuki Kita, Jian Xing and Shoichi Hirai / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 11

Appendix A. Assumptions in estimating model parameters through the EM algorithm

In general, as in the case of a multinomial logit model with a linear utility function, it is known that the log-
likelihood of the model forms a single-peaked pattern so that the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained as a
globally optimal solution. As shown in equations (1) and (4), however, our model assumes that the speed utility
function is nonlinear with a single-peaked pattern and that the log-likelihood function involves a latent class. This
means that the log-likelihood of our model does not always have a globally optimal solution.
In the EM algorithm used in parameter estimation of the latent class logit model, in general, a log-likelihood with
perfect information about the latent class is maximized through the M step, which is the first step of the EM
algorithm. As for equation (4), this log-likelihood function ln Lrc is represented as

J
 I K r, j 
J K I
 I

ln Lrc = ∑ ln ∏∏ πˆ kr π (v sr,i, j | vˆsr,,kj ) zi , k  = ∑∑∑  z ir,,kj ln πˆ kr + z ir,,kjVi,rk, j − z ir,,kj ln ∑ exp Vhr,,kj ,
j =1  i =1 k =1  j =1 k =1 i =1  h =1 

where zir,,kj = 1 if i belongs to segment k, and 0 otherwise.

Differentiating ln Lrc by λrk , we can obtain the following relational equation:

∂ ln Lrc 
r, j  r v r, j  v r , j   ∂ r , j I

∂λrk
= z i , k 

λ k exp[λr ] − s ,i exp λr s ,i
k
vˆsr,k, j
 k r , j   − r zi ,k ln
 vˆs,k   ∂λk
∑ expV
h =1
r, j
h ,k =0

Here, setting the first term enclosed in braces to 0 gives the following equation:

[ ]
exp[λrk ] + (1 − vsr,i, j vˆsr,k, j )λrk − ln vsr,i, j vˆsr,k, j = 0

Accordingly, this study assumes λrk > 0 and vˆsr,,kj ≤ vsr,i, j . These conditions indicate equation (5).

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