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India Real Estate Market Outlook 2019 - R9Ol PDF
India Real Estate Market Outlook 2019 - R9Ol PDF
REAL ESTATE
MARKET
OUTLOOK
INDIA
TABL E OF CONTENT
04 05
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
13 21
OFFICE SECTOR RETAIL SECTOR
28 35
LOGISTICS SECTOR CAPITAL MARKETS
41
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
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EXECU TIVE SU M M ARY
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GDP GROWTH TO CONTINUE
ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
8.5
8.0
% Growth (Y-o-Y basis)
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F
Source: IMF, January 2019
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate RBI Mid-term Target 2018
Source: Database of Indian Economy, Reserve Bank of India (DBIE - RBI), January 2019
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
Figure 1-3: 2019 Summary of expected global fiscal and monetary policies
Figure 1-4: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) movement
6.0% 5.5%
5.3% 5.2%
4.6%
5.0% 4.5%
4.0% 3.5%
4.2%
(% change)
0%
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, October 2018; DBIE -RBI, December 2018; *Provisional numbers
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
POLICY STIMULUS
76.0000
74.0000
72.0000
INR / USD
70.0000
68.0000
66.0000
64.0000
May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19
Source: Bloomberg
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
REIT By 2018, almost all concerns regarding the In Q1 2019, Embassy Group and Blackstone
viability of a REIT launch had been addressed, Group LP launched the country's first REIT, which
making it an opportune time for a REIT listing. was oversubscribed on listing. This is a critical step
towards formalising the funding mechanisms
prevalent in the sector.
FDI in e-commerce, Towards the end of December 2018, the Though the intent of these provisions was to ensure
draft e-commerce government came out with clarifications on the that there are no circumventions around the
policy existing FDI policy on e-commerce. Two key existing policy (specially to gain entries into multi-
points that were enlisted in the clarifications brand retail); however, some of these provisions
were: are seemingly restrictive, particularly for foreign
players. While existing players might have to
• To keep a tab on inventory ownership, it has redraw their business models / future plans; a
been mandated that an e-commerce constantly changing policy may also impact
platform cannot purchase more than 25% of foreign investor sentiment. To ensure a level
the total value of goods (of the vendor) from playing field, there is a need for a comprehensive
a single vendor / its group of companies. In e-commerce policy applicable to both foreign and
other words, a vendor can only sell 25% of domestic players.
its total goods by value to a single e-
commerce player.
• Any entity that has an equity participation by
an e-commerce player cannot sell its
products on the platform that is run by such
an e-commerce player.
• A draft e-commerce policy was floated In
Feb 2019, for industry suggestions wherein
special emphasis was laid on data sharing;
data has been termed as a ‘National Asset’
and a legal and technology framework
proposed for imposing restrictions on cross-
border data flow.
Amendments in RBI’s Revisions to the ECB policy were made in The move is likely to improve the Ease of Doing
ECB (External January 2019, wherein all eligible borrowers Business ranking. Also, to curb the volatility in the
Commercial have been allowed to raise up to USD 750 forex market (because of increasing demand for
Borrowings) policy million per financial year under the automatic the USD for crude oil purchases), the revised
route, replacing the existing sector-wise limits. norms provide special allowances to public sector
The Central Bank has also expanded the list of oil marketing companies.
eligible borrowers and recognised lenders.
GST rate cuts change in GST Rates - Non-Affordable Housing Having a standard tax will allow for simplicity in
definition of affordable compliance processes and should result in limited
housing • 5% on under-construction properties with no tax leakages. There could be an increase in cost
input tax credit (ITC), no GST on completed due to no ITC for developers (particularly for
projects affordable housing projects), however this could be
offset by an increase in sales volume.
GST Rates - Affordable Housing
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
Angel tax • The government shall now consider an entity Widening the definition of start-ups (which now
as a start-up for up to 10 years after its includes later stage companies, with a higher
incorporation as compared to 7 years earlier, annual turnover), increasing the exemption limit
provided its turnover for any one financial year on equity investments will give the much-needed
has not exceeded INR 1 billion. boost to mid-sized start-ups.
• Start-ups can apply for an exemption from
angel tax if their paid-up share capital is up to The earlier regime has numerous redundancies,
INR 0.25 billion, compared to INR 0.1 billion stretched timelines, and red-tapism due to the
earlier. procedures, which will now be reduced. It will
provide a conducive environment and enable
quick processes.
100% risk weights In Feb 2019, the central bank announced that The proposed merger of existing categories
removed for Non NBFCs’ risk weights will now be as per their rating, would reduce, to a large extent the complexities
Banking Financial which is a positive development for higher-rated arising from multiple categories and also provide
Companies (NBFCs) NBFCs. Also, various categories of NBFCs have NBFCs greater flexibility in their operations.
evolved over time pertaining to specific sector /
asset classes - at present there are twelve such
categories. However, it has now been decided to
harmonize major categories of NBFCs engaged in
credit intermediation, viz., asset finance
companies, loan companies, and investment
companies, into a single category.
Foreign Portfolio The central bank announced the removal of FPI While the provision was aimed at incentivizing
Investors (FPI) restrictions in corporate debt. As a part of the FPIs to maintain a portfolio of assets, however it
restrictions review of the FPI investment in corporate debt was seeming that FPIs have been constrained by
undertaken in April 2018, it was stipulated that no this stipulation. The removal of restrictions on FPI
FPI shall have an exposure of more than 20% of its will encourage a wider spectrum of investors to
corporate bond portfolio to a single corporate access the Indian corporate debt market.
(including exposure to entities related to the
corporate). The RBI announced in Feb 2019 that
the provision stands withdrawn.
Source: Securities and Exchange Board of India; Reserve Bank of India, DIPP, CBRE Research
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ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK
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OFFICE SECTOR
DISRUPTING THE DISRUPTIONS
O F F ICE SECTOR
Figure 2-1: Office sector in India: stronger link between tech, investment, supply and demand
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O F F ICE SECTOR
We expect that both demand and supply would continue to be focused towards the most
Polarisation between cities
prominent destinations: Bangalore, NCR, Hyderabad and Mumbai.
Majority of the activity – both in terms of leasing and new supply completions is expected to be
Infrastructure-led growth led by the completion of urban infrastructure, particularly the provision of metro services or major
arterial roads.
With the looming sunset date of benefits for occupiers to expire in March 2020, we expect
Dominance of SEZ’s / tech
heightened activity in this segment for both absorption and development completions in 2019
parks
(Figure 2-2, Figure 2-3).
Technology would continue to impact occupiers and developers, resulting in increased flexibility
Tech driven RE decisions
in decision making and space leased / released.
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
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O F F ICE SECTOR
Figure 2-2: SEZ stock split across cities till 2018 end
Kolkata
Mumbai 3%
8%
Bangalore
30%
Pune
13%
Chennai
15%
NCR Hyderabad
15% 16%
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
Figure 2-3: Expected vacancy levels across SEZ’s in key cities by 2019
50 25%
40 20%
Vacancy Rate (%)
30 15%
Million sq. ft
20 10%
10 5%
0 0%
NCR Mumbai Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Pune
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O F F ICE SECTOR
Increase by 0-10%
Reduce by 0-10%
India APAC
Source: CBRE’s India Office Occupier Survey 2019, CBRE’s APAC Occupier Survey, 2018
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O F F ICE SECTOR
10
8
In million sq. ft
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 and 2020E
Note: includes leasing by flexible space operators in investment and semi-investment grade office buildings, along with non-office developments
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
50
Gross Absorption (million sq. ft)
40
30
20
10
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 E 2020E
Share of net absorption
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
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O F F ICE SECTOR
Figure 2-7: 2019 office supply split across cities Figure 2-8: 2019 Future supply split across segments
Kolkata
Chennai 3%
8% Bangalore
25%
27%
Mumbai
10%
Pune
10%
73%
NCR Hyderabad
20% 24%
SEZ Non SEZ
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
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O F F ICE SECTOR
WHAT TO EXPECT
IN 2019?
Interest from global and domestic occupiers is
expected to generate evolved sources of
demand.
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RETAIL SECTOR
“CHERISH” RETAIL TO EMERGE STRONGER
“CHERISH” RETAIL TO EMERGE STRONGER
RETAIL SECTOR
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
Pune Kolkata Hyderabad Chennai Bangalore Mumbai NCR
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RETAIL SECTO R
Figure 3-2: City-wise total retail spending in India in 2014 and 2019 (INR billion)
Source: Statista
3India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF)
4International Monetary Fund (IMF)
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RETAIL SECTO R
} Blackstone Canada Pension Plan Investment Board* GIC Private Limited The Xander Group
~6 MILLION ~1 MILLION SQ. FT. OPERATIONAL, ~2 MILLION ~5 MILLION
SQ. FT. PLUS 3 MILLION SQ. FT. UPCOMING SQ. FT. SQ. FT.
*CPPIB
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RETAIL SECTO R
Figure 3-3: Share of online retail sales in India Figure 3-4: Online retail sales in India (USD million)
6.0% 60,000
5.0% 50,000
4.0% 40,000
USD million
%
3.0% 30,000
2.0% 20,000
1.0% 10,000
0.0% 0
2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022*
Note: * Indicates estimate; select items only
Source: Statista
5Statista
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RETAIL SECTO R
NCR
Mumbai
Pune
Chennai
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Kolkata
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RETAIL SECTO R
WHAT TO EXPECT
IN 2019?
Diversification in demand to continue, with
expansion by various domestic and
international brands across categories.
Source: Euromonitor
6India
Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF)
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LOGISTICS SECTOR
ON THE PATH TO TRANSFORMATION
L O GISTICS SECTOR
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
Figure 4-1: How cities and sectors have performed: 2018 vs 2017
2017 2018
4% 2% 3% 1%
7% 9%
23%
31%
8%
12%
10%
14%
19%
16%
22%
19%
Bangalore NCR Chennai Mumbai Mumbai NCR Bangalore
Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata
Kolkata Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Pune Ahmedabad
4%
2% 2% 1% 6%
5%
4%
6% 32%
5%
35%
9%
11%
15%
22%
18% 23%
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
Infrastructure Status Granted in the 2018 Union Budget, the move has Besides 100% FDI in the storage and
enabled the logistics sector to access infrastructure logistics sector which is instrumental in
lending at easier terms with enhanced limits. attracting foreign funds, the infrastructure
status is envisaged to spur activity from
leading developers and bring in domestic
investments into the sector.
Revising load capacity The load capacity of heavy vehicles was increased by 20- This revision by the transport ministry is
of heavy vehicles 25%, which is now at par with global standards. likely to reduce logistics costs by 2%.
Integrated Industrial Maharashtra has taken some concrete steps to stimulate Both these initiatives are aimed at
Area (IIA) & Logistics private partnerships for industrial developments. These improving infrastructure, regularise
Park Policy, 2018 - include increasing the FSI from 1 to 2, incentivizing stamp unauthorised developments in industrial
Maharashtra duty, reducing minimum land requirement from 40 areas and tap into unutilised land parcels.
hectares to 20 hectares and revising the land use ratio
(industrial: others) from 60:40 to 80:20. The state has
also introduced an integrated logistics policy, which
revolves around setting up about 120 logistics parks
across the state under the supervision of the Maharashtra
Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC).
National Logistics The policy is being prepared by the logistics division The policy aims to provide an impetus to
Policy (2019) within the commerce ministry. The Ministry of Commerce trade, enhance export competitiveness,
had published the draft policy In February 2019 and improve India’s ranking in the Logistics
opened the document for public discussions till March Performance Index to between 25 and 30,
2019. among other initiatives.
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
8.0
Pre - GST Post - GST
6.0
In Million sq. ft.
4.0
2.0
0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2017 2018
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
16
Supply 2019E
14
Supply 2020E
12
In million. sq. ft.
10
8
6
4
2
0
NCR Bangalore Mumbai Chennai Hyderabad Pune Kolkata
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L O GISTICS SECTOR
IN 2019?
IMPROVE EFFICIENCY AND FLEXIBILITY
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CAPITAL MARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
CAPITAL M ARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
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CAPITAL M ARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
2% 9%
41%
2%
4%
12%
13%
16%
14% 23%
Delhi NCR Mumbai Chennai Hyderabad Mumbai Chennai Bangalore Delhi NCR
Bangalore Pune Kolkata Others Hyderabad Pune Others
13%
48%
53%
34%
28%
Office Site Retail
Hotel Residential Warehouse Office Site Retail
Mixed Residential Industrial Hotel
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
Warehouse
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CAPITAL M ARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
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CAPITAL M ARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
Consolidation among developers as well as large land owners with • This trend is expected to continue in 2019 as well with
smaller players expected to look for avenues of funding or resort to consolidation amongst land owners and NBFC players as well.
asset monetisation.
Incremental interest for equity: • Equity funding is expected to continue with restriction to asset
• Compared with the past couple of years where debt remained types such as commercial and retail.
the dominant flavour, there has been a selective but • It is expected that the residential sector will still be driven by
incremental appetite for equity as a source of funding. debt. Equity will be the preferred funding mechanism in
commercial and industrial assets.
Table 5-2: 2019 Investment strategies
Core assets will remain the focus, investors should also look for upcoming peripheral
Office
and suburban locations where rents are catching up with core locations.
Investors should look for prime properties in tier I cities with good infrastructure;
Logistics
greenfield opportunities should be at the forefront.
Investors could also look at alternate sectors such as data centers, co-living, student
Other sectors
and senior housing, etc.
Investors should focus on quality assets in core locations in cities such as Kochi,
Office Trivandrum, Mysore, Ahmedabad, etc.
Investors should concentrate on quality assets with rising footfalls in core and non-
Retail core locations.
Investors should look at warehouses located along the upcoming industrial corridors
such as DMIC (Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor), CBIC (Chennai-Bangalore Industrial
Logistics Corridor), ADKIC (Amritsar-Delhi-Kolkata Industrial Corridor), MBIC (Mumbai-
Bangalore Industrial Corridor).
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2019
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CAPITAL M ARKETS
STABILITY TO ENSUE
IN 2019?
As the number of NBFCs have increased in
recent years, the current scenario and
government policies will lead to consolidation
of NBFCs.
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RESIDENTIAL
PATH TO RECOVERY CONTINUES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Table 6-1: Policy measures and its impact on residential sector in 2018
Policy Key Highlights Current status
Real Estate Regulatory RERA was aimed at ensuring accountability • More than 26 states and UTs have notified rules
Act (RERA) and infusing transparency and uniformity in under the RERA and more than 20 states have
practices prevalent in the real estate sector. their websites operational under the provisions of
RERA.
Affordable Housing The government relaxed carpet area norms • Revisions in GST rate were undertaken in Feb
multiple times for affordable housing 2019. The GST rate is down from 8% to 1% on
incentives. GST relaxations were also made. under-construction properties (subject to no ITC).
Also, as previously, there is no GST on completed
projects.
Insolvency and The inadequacy of RERA to address the • Home buyers have been recognized as financial
Bankruptcy Code concerns of home buyers in case of creditors which treats them at par with the
Amendment (IBC), corporate insolvency has led the central financial institutions to receive their share in case
2018 government to amend the law. of insolvency proceedings.
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
1,00,000
50,000
0
Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1,00,000 10.0%
80,000 8.0%
INR Billion
60,000 6.0%
%
40,000 4.0%
20,000 2.0%
0 0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
WHAT TO EXPECT
IN 2019?
Supply- demand scenario is expected to
improve, unsold inventory levels to further
decline.
8IMRB International
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RESEARCH
CBRE RESEARCH
This report was prepared by the CBRE India Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research – a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real
estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including
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and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency
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