Risk Mitigation and Vulnerability Assessment of Nam Dok Mai

Mango (Mangifera indica L.cv. Nam Dok Mai) Supply Chain Using
Rapid Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment (RapAgRisk)
Dhiyaa Ulhaq Rikaviani#, Adi Djoko Guritno#, Novita Erma Kristanti#, Anggoro Cahyo Sukartiko#, Arthit
Apichottanakul*
#
Department of Agroindustrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural TechnologyUniversitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Flora No. 1, Bulaksumur,
Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia
E-mail: dhiyaa.ulhaq.r@mail.ugm.ac.id; adidjoko@ugm.ac.id; novita_erma@ugm.ac.id; cahyos@ugm.ac.id

*
Department of Production Technology, Faculty of Technology, Khon Kaen University, 123/2002 Moo 16 Mittapap Rd., Nai-Muang, Muang
District, Khon Kaen, 40002, Thailand
E-mail: arthap@kku.ac.th

Abstract — Mango is one of the essential commodities in Thailand. As a perishable product, a deteriorate in the quality of mango can
cause losses both in terms of quality and quantity throughout the supply chain. Therefore, this study aims to identify the structure of
the mango supply chain, identify risks and determine vulnerabilities that occur in each tier, and mitigate the risks that occur in the
supply chain. The data in this study were collected by purposive and snowball samplings through in-depth interviews with risk
owners throughout the supply chain. This research focused on Nam Dok Mai mangoes which are produced by Ban Haet Community
Mango Enterprises, Ban Haet District, Khon Kaen Province. Supply chain risk in commodities was examined and analyzed using
Rapid Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment (RapAgRisk). The results showed that the mango supply chain consisted of four
tiers;, namely farmers, community enterprises, wholesalers and retailers. We identified several risks, i.e. weather, biological and
environment, market, logistics, and operational risks. Farmers have a vulnerability to high temperature, strong winds, pests and
diseases, price fluctuation, and management operations. Community enterprises have a vulnerability to price change and
management operational. Wholesalers have a vulnerability to demand change and obtaining rotten mangoes from farmers. Retailers
have a vulnerability to rotten mango obtained from wholesalers. Mitigation was carried out to the farmer, they should use proper
equipment, set the distance of the cropping pattern, record their farm activity, make an initial agreement with the buyer, and proper
production planning, establish windbreak, and give training about weather change adaptation and Integrated Pest Management. In
community enterprise, they should make an initial agreement with the buyer, use social media, attend fruit festival, and make a
database. In wholesalers, they should record the sales, sort the mango, and make an agreement with the supplier. In retailer level,
they should sort the mango and make an agreement with the wholesaler.

Keywords— mango, RapAgRisk; risk management; supply chain.

I. INTRODUCTION Mango is one of the best-known choices of fruit in the

Thailand is an agricultural country due to its topographic
and climatic conditions being suitable for farm cultivation.
The nation’s total land area is around 51.089 million
hectares, of which some 22.110 million hectares is
agricultural area and 16.429 million hectares is forest area
[1]. Many agricultural commodity exports are ranked first
or very high on the list in terms of world market share [2].
tropics. The world demand for mangoes is increasing as it
almost doubled in the year of 2000-2013 with exports rising
from 620,000 tonnes to 1,650,000 tonnes, equivalent to
US$ 1.69 billion from US$ 386 million, representing a 26%
annual average growth rate [3]. According to Department of
Agricultural Extension (2015), commercial fruit production
area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares with major crops
grown are mango (20.5%), longan (10.4%), durian (5.8%),
mangosteen (4.1%), longkong (3.7%), rambutan (3%), lychee
(1.3%) and tangerine (0.9%) [4] . Mango or Mamuang is one
of the most essential economic fruits in Thailand. Besides
domestic consumption, fruits produced in Thailand have also
been exported. Based on the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations Statistics, Thailand was
the third largest mango exporter in the world with an export
volume up to 183290 tons [5]. There are over 100 mango
varieties across the country and Nam Dok Mai is one of the
most famous and consumed cultivars in Thailand. It is oval-
shaped with a sharp-pointed tip, its ripe fruits are golden-
yellow with deep yellow flesh, and the taste is sweet, slightly
sour and scented [6]. Thai fresh fruits business has strong
demands in the domestic markets due to the expansion of
wholesale and retail trade. As for foreign markets, regional
economic cooperation has resulted in the expansion of farm
area in order to satisfy the market demands. In the domestic
market, new channels of retail trade with the nationwide
network such as Tesco, Big C, Super Cheap, and Makro all
contribute to the increase in cash and income circulation [7].
Supply chain management is the integration of planning,
implementation, coordination, and control of all business
processes and activities to efficiently produce and deliver
products to meet market needs[8]. The supply chain of mango
in Thailand consists of some tiers. There are farmers,
community enterprises, exporters, wholesalers, retailers, and
consumers. Agricultural supply chain management is very
complex because there are many actors and activities in the
production process[8]. Ineffective supply chain management
will make its chain risky and vulnerability because each of
these developments must have risks. However, problems can
arise from many factors affecting production such as
seasonality, weather, diseases as well as transportation making
the management of the supply chain more difficult which can
result in the failure to meet the demands of the end-customers.
Agricultural producers cannot predict with certainty the
amount of output and desease. Agricultural producers can also
be hindered by adverse events during harvesting or collecting
that may result in production losses [9]. Furthermore, from
harvesting until they reach consumers, the postharvest losses
in mangoes have been estimated to be in the range of 25-40%
[3]. Supply chain risk is defined as issues that are related to
negative consequences or impact in supply chain [10].
To mitigate the risks which might be occurred in the chain,
supply chain risk management strategies play an important
role in risk reduction. To integrate risk management concept
into supply chain activities, supply chain risk management
(SCRM) can be defined as the management of supply chain
risks through coordination or collaboration among the supply
chain partners so as to ensure profitability and continuity [11].
Risk management controls operations to reduce vulnerability,
while a mitigation strategy defines how the supply chain
should operate to mitigate vulnerability[12]. The concept of
vulnerability underlies risk. Vulnerability is defined as the
combined result of the probability of an event occurring and
of the economic damage that may derive from such an event.
In SCRM, vulnerability is not an individual or household
characteristic but is taken to be the vulnerability of the chain
itself; that is, the possibility that the chain might fail to bring
the right product in the right quantities to the right place at the
right time and at a competitive cost [13].
Supply chain risk mitigation measures mainly consist of ex-
ante and ex-post measures[10]. This study using the Rapid
Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment (RapAgRisk).
RapAgRisk is a comprehensive system approach method to
identify risks, risk exposure, potential failure severity, and
options for risk management, both by supply chain
participants (individual or collective) or by third parties (for
example government). RapAgRisk was developed by the
Agricultural Risk Management Team (ARMT) of the World
Bank[14]. This study aims to identify the structure of the
mango supply chain, identify risks and determine
vulnerabilities that occur in each tier, and mitigate the risks
that occur in the supply chain.
II. MATERIAL AND METHOD
This research was conducted in Ban Haet Community
Mango Enterprise, Ban Haet District, Khon Kaen Province.
Data in this research were collected by purposive and
snowball samplings through an in-depth interview with the
respondents throughout the supply chain. In-depth interviews
were conducted to identify the risk and related information
from the risk owner. Moreover, the risk analysis method used
the Rapid Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment
(RapAgRisk). Risk mapping is also used to analyze the
probability and severity of the risk. The combination of
probability and severity results the Expected Loss Ranking
Matrix, and then it can be used to develop Risk Management
and Vulnerability Assessment by combining with the
assessment of capacity to manage the risk in each tier. Based
on the risk analysis, the risk treatment and risk mitigation thus
can be appropiately proposed for each risk in each tier.
A. Problem Identification and Objective Determination
Problem identification is one of the first stages of data
analysis. Identification of the problem is done by preliminary
observation. Based on the problem identification, the
statements and the objectives of the study can be generated. It
is done with field observation and indepth inerview with the
Nam Dok Mai mango growers.
B. Literature study
The literature study was conducted to obtain supportive
additional data and information to solve the problems.
C. Tier Identification of Nam Dok Mai Mango Supply Chain
The tier identification was done with tracking the supply
chain from farmer, community enterprise, wholesaler, and
retailer. This identification was carried out to facilitate the
activity of searching for information, data, and help the
researcher to make limitation for the focus of the study.
D. Data Collection about Rapid Agricultural Supply Chain
The following are the stages of data processing and analysis
are done:
1) Risk Identification: Process that involves finding,
recognizing, and describing the risks that could influence the
achievement of objectives [15]. Thus, risk identification
should develop a list of the risks that are likely to affect the
supply chain and bring consequences to the company [16].
Risk identification conducted through interviews with the risk
owner at every level (tier). Risk identification is performed
based on risk categories which are in Rapid Agricultural
Supply Chain Risk Assessment (RapAgRisk) as follows:
weather, natural disasters, biological and environmental,
market, logistical and infrastructural, management and
operational, public policy and institutional, and political risks.
1. The colors in Figure 1 may indicate how the losses that can
be generated by risk and risk priorities that should be treated.
Red color indicates the priority 1 (High expected loss), the
blue color indicates the Priority 2 (Medium expected loss),
yellow color indicates Priority 3 (Low expected loss).

2) Risk Analysis: The analysis of the risks involves

considering the probability (P) and severity (S) of the
identified risks to determine the overall level of risk. Risk
mapping is done by calculating the value of modus on the
probability and severity of each risk factor. Probability (P) of
the risk should be rated utilizing the 1-5 scale outlined in
Table 1 [14], [17] and severity (S) of the risk should be rated
utilizing the 1-5 scale outlined in Table 2 [14], [18].
TABLE I Fig. 1 Expected loss ranking matrix
PROBABILITY SCALE
3) Risk Evaluation: The risks that have been mapped has a
Score Qualitative Quantitative
Level different risk category based on the expected loss and capacity
Level Descriptions Descriptions
Very rare to manage the risks. Capacity for managing (C) pertinent risks
In 5 years season of and rate it utilizing the 1–5 scale outlined in Table 3.
occur in
Very low 1 mango production, the
certain TABLE III
opportunity occurs 1 time
conditions CAPACITY TO MANAGE SCALE
Sometimes In 2-3 years season
occur in mango production, the Rank Definition
Low 2 1 Partially effective yet approaches are likely to be costly,
certain opportunity occurs 1
conditions time unsustainable
In 1-year season mango 2 Between 1 and 3
Occurs in a
production, the 3 An effective yet mixed pattern of
Moderate 3 certain
opportunity occurs 1 affordability/sustainability
condition
time. 4 Between 3 and 5
In 1-year season mango
Often occur 5 Very effective with a high likelihood of sustainability
production, the
High 4 in every
opportunity occurs no
condition
more than 5 times
Always In 1-year season mango
Very occur in production, the Furthermore, vulnerability assessment by combining
5 Expected Loss Ranking Matrix with the assessment of
High every opportunity occurs 1
condition months or more times capacity to manage (C) the risk in each tier as shown in Figure
2.
TABLE III
SEVERITY SCALE

Semi-
Level Scale Qualitative Descriptions
Quantitative
There was no impact or
Losses less
Very low 1 lowest impact on the
than 5%
self/organization
There was a low impact on Losses
Low 2 the self/organization between 5%
- 10%
There was a medium Losses
Moderate 3 impact on the between
self/organization 10% - 15%
There was a high impact on Losses
High 4 the self/organization between
15% - 20%
There was the highest
Very Losses more
5 impact on the
High than 20%
self/organization Fig. 2 Characteristics and scale of the risk vulnerability assessment code
Furthermore, the combination of probability and severity Risk Treatment: Giving suggestions or recommendations to
results the Expected Loss Ranking Matrix as shown in Figure improve existing risk management measures. Ex-ante actions
are taken before a risky event occurs [19]. Ex-ante risk
management includes risk prevention or reduction, reducing
exposure to risk, and risk mitigation [14].
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A. The Supply Chain of Nam Dok Mai Mango
Based on the field survey conducted in Ban Haet
Community Mango Enterprise, Ban Haet District, Khon Kaen
Province, the supply chain of Nam Dok Mai mango is divided
into two streams i.e., domestic and international market flow.
International (export) market flow (60%) is grade A mango to
be taken directly by the exporter. Meanwhile, domestic market
flow is divided into two, the first one is grade B (30%)
distributed to many local markets such as Si Mum Mueang
Market (Rangsit) and Talat Thai (Pathum Thani), and market
in Khon Kaen as Talad Rotfai. The focus of this study was the
flow for the domestic market with grade C mango (10%). The
supply chain of grade C mango in the domestic market
consists of some tiers, including farmer, community
enterprises, wholesaler, and retailer as shown in Figure 3.
Fig. 3 The supply chain of Nam Dok Mai mango
Explanation for each tier are:
Farmer :
The mango farmer that involved in the supply chain will
only sell their mangoes through the community. All mango
farmers who are members of these organizations will be better
in product management and improve mango production into
Good Agriculture Practices (GAP) standards. Activities for
farmer are: propagation, cultivation, off-season mangoes
technique with paclobutrazol to make mango crops available
almost all year round, fertilization, harvest and postharvest
process .
Community Mango Enterprise:
Community Mango Enterprise, Ban Haet District, Khon
Kaen Province established since 2005 with 31 members, but
nowadays there are 65 members in the community enterprises
group for mango production in Ban Haet District, Khon Kaen
Province. The community enterprise group is managed by the
committee members to set up the policy to run the activities of
the group. The role of the community group is to the
intermediary for other stakeholders who wants to buy the
mango from the farmer because the farmer can't sell the
mango direct to the buyer. They have a meeting plan to set
production schedule for any members to meet the exporter’s
order, list the grower needs such as agricultural inputs and
buying together with a large number to get the lower price.
Through this community group, the farmer also knows about
the price reference, from the Department of Agricultural
Extension (DOAE) through Thai Mango Growers Association
because the community enterprises become the center for any
information.
Wholesaler:
The wholesaler was the third tier of the mango supply chain
which has one of the important roles in the distribution
process because it has a role to channel the mango into a small
merchant which will then be easily obtained by consumers. At
present, wholesale market centers, both for vegetables and
fruits, have extended to many locations, especially in
Bangkok’s outskirts and neighboring Provinces such as Si
Mum Mueang Market (Rangsit) and Talat Thai (Pathum
Thani). In Khon Kaen Province, one of the central markets of
wholesaler fruit is Train Market (Talad Rotfai market).
Wholesaler usually gets Nam Dok Mai mango not only from
the community enterprises but also from farmers from
different places and regions. There are some commission
merchants for picking up mangoes and deliver to the
wholesaler, and there is some wholesaler who picking up
mangoes by themselves. Besides that, farmers will usually
deliver their mangoes directly to wholesalers using trucks or
cars. Some wholesaler in the market thus acts rather like an
agent doing transactions with the middlemen (brokers) who
deliver the commodities from the production area to the
market. The wholesaler who receives mango carries out some
activities including sorting, grading, giving bags of gasses for
ripening in each box of mangoes, packing, and selling to the
retailer or consumer.
Retailer:
The retailer was the fourth tier that directly relates to
consumers. The retailer that involved in this study were some
merchants in traditional market and fruit stall who got the
mangoes from the wholesaler that had been identified. The
retailer usually takes directly to the wholesaler to buy a
mango.
B. Supply Chain Risk Assessment
1) Risk Identification: Risk identification is the first step
and one of the most important processes in supply chain risk
management. There are 38 who were interviewed consisting
of 16 farmers, 7 commit members of Ban Haet Community
Mango Enterprise, 5 wholesalers and 10 retailers. According
to 8 type of risks in the RapAgRisk method, there are 5 type
of risks that are identified from the mango supply chain:
weather risk (R.1.1), biological and environmental risk (R.1.2
and R.3.4), market risk (R.1.3, R.2.1, R.3.1, R.3.3, and R.4.1),
logistics and infrastructure risk (R.3.2), and management and
operational risks (R.1.4, R.2.2, R.2.3, R.2.4, R.3.5, and R.4.2)
as shown in Table 4.
 TABLE IV
Risk Faced by Tiers

Code Tier Cause Impact

R.1.1 Weather change especially high temperature, If temperature >280 Celcius, it can make mango
affect the production of mangoes. difficult to bear and causing black spots on the fruit.
R.1.2 Mango plants and fruits are attacked by pests The quantity and quality of mango fruit will decline
and disease

R.1.3 Price fluctuation because the market situation The selling price is lower than usual
Farmer affects the mango supply chain. On season
production might face the competition
R.1.4 Careless harvesting process by worker The quality of the fruits will decline

R.1.5 Weather with the strong winds affects the The quality of mango will decrease
quality and quantity of mango because the
strong wind causing friction between each
mango before plastic bag used.
R.2.1 Price fluctuation because the price change community and farmer income are uncertain
depending on the quality, size, and average
price of

R.2.2 Lack of publicity in marketing Limited market

R.2.3 Community Entreprise Management and operational affect the mismatch of production, demand, and financial data
process of the mango supply chain. The data
collection system still manually.

R.2.4 There are members didn't participate in the there are some farmers who have missing
meeting because they are careless information

R.3.1 The market situation affects the mango When demand decreases, wholesaler difficult to
supply chain. Mangoes have high demand selling their mangoes until the mangoes rot
fluctuations which are generally caused by
changes in supply or consumption patterns.
R.3.2 Logistics and infrastructure affect the mango Wholesaler have losses during transportation
supply chain. Road accidents and delays can because they can not sell the mango
damage mango in the transportation process
R.3.3 The market situation affects the mango The selling price is lower than usual
Wholesealer
supply chain. On season production might
face the competition and when towards the
offseason, Nam Dok Mai mango became
unpopular
R.3.4 Biological and environmental disturbances Rats on the storage location caused the mango
affecting the supply chain of mango damaged
R.3.5 Rotten mango because infected the disease The price will decline and rejection by the market so
from the farmer because of less checking wholesaler must throw the mango
R.4.1 Market situation affect the mango supply When demand decreases, retailer difficult to selling
chain the mango until the mango rot

R.4.2 The retailer bought the mango in the box and The retailer cannot sell the mango and just throw it awa
Retailer
can only see the condition of the mango at the
top of the box, this is causing at the bottom of
the box there found a rotten mango

2) Risk Analysis: After all the risks in the Nam Dok Mai result vulnerability assessment (see Figure 4 to Figure 11).
mango supply chain are identified, risk analysis is carried Vulnerability Assessment is. Based on risk analysis results,
out by giving a score from a determined scale based on the supply chain actors will be able to estimate the treatment
parameter of risk probability, severity, and capacity to that should be done at each tier.
manage the risks. The combination of probability and
severity were processed by risk mapping and results in the
Expected Loss Ranking Matrix. Meanwhile, the
combination of Expected Loss Ranking Matrix with the
assessment of capacity to manage (C) the risk in each tier
 R.1.1 = Risk of R.3.1 = R. of
high temperature demand change
R.1.2 = R. of R.3.2 = R. of
pest and disease damage during
R.1.3 = R. of transportation
price fluctuation R.3.3 = R. of
R.1.4 = R. of price change
material R.3.4 = R. of
handling pest and disease
R.1.5 = R. of R.3.5 = R. of
strong winds rotten mango
from the farmer
Fig. 4 Expected loss ranking matrix in farmer level Fig. 8 Expected loss ranking matrix in wholesaler level

R.1.1 = Risk of
high temperature R.3.1 = R. of
R.1.2 = R. of demand change
pest and disease R.3.2 = R. of
R.1.3 = R. of damage during
price fluctuation transportation
R.3.3 = R. of
R.1.4 = R. of
price change
material
R.3.4 = R. of
handling
pest and disease
R.1.5 = R. of
R.3.5 = R. of
strong winds
rotten mango
Fig. 5 Vulnerability assessment in farmer level from the farmer
Fig. 9 Expected loss ranking matrix in wholesaler level
R.2.1 = R. of
price change
R.2.2 = R. of R.4.1 = R. of
marketing demand change
R.2.3 = R.of data R.4.2 = R. of
collection Mango rotten
system from the market
R.2.4 = R. of
Lack of member

Fig. 6 Expected loss ranking matrix in community enterprise level Fig. 10 Expected loss ranking matrix in retailer level

R.2.1 = R. of
price change
R.2.2 = R. of
marketing
R.2.3 = R.of data R.4.1 = R. of
collection demand change
system R.4.2 = R. of
R.2.4 = R. of Mango rotten
Lack of member from the market

Fig. 7 Vulnerability assessment in community enterprise level

Fig. 11 Vulnerability assessment in retailer level

3) Risk Evaluation: Risk evaluation aims to make a

decision based on the results obtained from risk analysis. The
risks that have been mapped has a different risk category
based on the magnitude of the losses that can occur and the
ability to adapt risk management. Figures above show that as
long as the vegetable moving towards the consumer level, the
risk tends to decrease but the capacity to manage tend to
increase. This is indicated by the absence of extremely
vulnerable or very vulnerable at wholesaler and retailer level.
In the supply chain of mango, only both farmers and
community enterprises who own the risk in the category of
low vulnerable, medium vulnerable, very vulnerable, and
extremely vulnerable. The risk in the wholesaler and retailer
level are classified as low and limited vulnerable risk. Risk in
agriculture has wider complexity and preharvest activity
should be prioritized because it results on-farm risk that may
affect the risk in the next tier [20].
4) Risk Mitigation: Risk mitigation is the last stages of
risk management. This stage will determine the actions of
mitigation that are adjusted to the categorization of each risk
from the previous stage. Risk mitigation is given to the risks
that have been found in the mango supply chain to reduce the
probability and severity of these risks. For the risk in the
category of limited vulnerable, there are no treatments and
mitigations needed because they are in the acceptable level of
risk and the risk owner in the supply chain has been able to
handle those risks. The results of the risk analysis obtained are
then cross-checked with risk owners to determine mitigation
actions. In the case of weather change such as high
temperature which is classified as extremely vulnerable, the
farmer should roof or cover the plant with net and wrapping
the fruit with paper bag to mitigate the risk. Moreover, farmer
should use proper equipment, set the distance of the cropping
pattern, record their farm activity, make an initial agreement
with the buyer and proper production planning, establish
windbreaks, and give training about weather change
adaptation and Integrated Pest Management. At the
community enterprise level they should make an initial
agreement with the buyer, use social media, attend fruit
festivals, and make a database. In wholesalers, they should
records sales, sort the mango, and make an agreement with the
supplier. In retailer level, they should sort the mango and
make an agreement with the wholesaler. Good coordination
between the actors in the supply chain may help the farmer,
community enterprise, and wholesaler negotiate when the
price and demand are fluctuating. For the risk in the category
of limited vulnerable, there are no treatments and mitigations
needed because they are in the acceptable level of risk and the
risk owner in the supply chain has been able to handle those
risks.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The supply chain of Nam Dok Mai mango with grade C in
the domestic market consists of some tiers including farmer,
community enterprise, wholesaler, and retailer. The risks in
farmer's level were high temperature, pests, and diseases,
price fluctuation, bruises and bumps on fruits in the harvesting
process because of material handling errors and the strong
winds. The risks in community enterprise level were price
changes, lack of publicity in marketing, data collection system
still manually, and lack of member awareness. The risks in
wholesalers level were demand change, mango fruit damaged
during transportation, price changes, mango attacked by pest,
and rotten mango from the farmer. The risks in retailer's level
were demand change and rotten mangoes from the supplier.
Farmers have a vulnerability to several risks such as high
temperatures and strong winds, pests and diseases, price
fluctuations, and errors in material handling. Community
enterprises have a vulnerability to price changes and
operational management. Wholesalers have a vulnerability to
demand change and obtaining rotten mangoes from farmers.
Retailers have a vulnerability to rotten mango obtained from
wholesalers. Mitigation was carried out to the farmer, they
should use proper equipment, set the distance of the cropping
pattern, record their farm activity, make an initial agreement
with the buyer and proper production planning, establish
windbreaks, and give training about weather change
adaptation and Integrated Pest Management. In community
enterprise, they should make an initial agreement with the
buyer, use social media, attend fruit festival, and make a
database. In wholesalers, they should make records of sales,
sort the mango, and make an agreement with the supplier. In
retailer level, they should sort the mango and make an
agreement with the wholesaler.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to thank Mr. Boonsuan as the group
president of Ban Haet Community Mango Enterprise, Ban
Haet District, Khon Kaen Province for allowing the researcher
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