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Airlines Remaining Relevant How To Retain Customer Loyalty
Airlines Remaining Relevant How To Retain Customer Loyalty
Airlines Remaining Relevant How To Retain Customer Loyalty
CUSTOMER LOYALTY
October 2017
INTRODUCTION
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
FUTURE OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION
Scope
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this
Travel briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
Travel Modes briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
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INTRODUCTION
Key findings
Airline loyalty programmes are embracing change, but at a slow pace in light of the
numerous disruptors in the travel industry and the changing nature of ultra-connected
customers. Revenue-driven strategies and costly co-branded cards, once seen as the
main tool to deliver profitability, are no longer the right answer to retain and convert
passengers into loyal customers. Brand engagement, rather than high breakage (ie
unredeemed points), simplicity of the services, customisation and a bigger focus
on the social media element, as well as experiential-based brand
relationships are of essence for the success of reward schemes.
Increasing competition from new airline players, airports and financial providers in the
airline segment puts more emphasis on the need to differentiate. Unique and creative
rewards can attract customer attention, not only repeat customers but also occasional
travellers.
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INTRODUCTION
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
FUTURE OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Airline Loyalty Deconstructed What is The 2016 Global Passenger Survey (GPS),
Important for Passengers? 2016 by IATA, indicates which are the major
aspects of the passenger journey that
impact the loyalty of travellers to individual
airlines.
Leading factors are ticket price, flight
schedule and on-board comfort, according
to the feedback from the respondents.
Social media, especially online platforms
such as Facebook and Twitter, are very
popular, and serve as tools to exchange
opinions and share experiences related to
travel, including experiences with particular
airlines.
Carriers are increasingly looking into the
establishment of “in-flight micro-social
Ticket Price Flight Schedule networks”, supported by wearable
On-Board Comfort On-Time Departure/Arrival technologies on board, which they can
Convinience to Airline Hub Responsive Customer Service
monitor and in turn support a personalised
experience for individual passengers.
Inflight Wi-Fi Access Inflight Entertainment
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
The shift towards revenue- The dynamic pace of the Digital innovations, such as apps,
based loyalty programmes, first development of the airline help travellers to tailor their
seen in North America and industry, and the arrival of new preferences on food,
slowly spreading into other business models, such as the entertainment, check-in or
regions, has been driving the low-cost segment, or online shopping when flying with an
rising profitability of these distribution has also meant airline, which can contribute to
schemes. that customers are in the greater customer satisfaction.
It has also translated into the driving seat in demanding the Convenient flight times and route
mushrooming of more co- ultimate in differentiation. networks, in addition to price, are
branded company credit cards Travellers are increasingly among the major drivers for
and the purchase of air miles, looking to find simple, relevant travellers to choose the airline
which has seen “transactional” loyalty programmes which are they will travel with, rather than
loyalty emerging within this building emotional connections purely basing their choice on the
business environment. with the end customer. loyalty programme they are
However, this does not members of. As such, travellers'
necessarily translate into a more emotional connection to an
loyal end passenger or more airline will be directly linked to
happy customer, but may lead their satisfaction with this brand.
to a greater readiness to change The use of behavioural customer
ships and move to the player information, geo-location and
which delivers the best reward transactional history data will add
benefits and experiences. a cutting edge to the specific
loyalty programme.
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Airline Apps Ranking by Monthly Mobile phone apps have become a critical way for airlines to engage
Users in Europe 2016 with consumers, especially as smartphone ownership has been
Rank App increasing globally.
1 Ryanair Facilitating direct communication with customers and accessing big
data which provides more insights about the customer base, their
2 easyJet behaviour, their preferences, past experiences and requests is seen
3 Turkish Airlines as one of the facilitators for improving the appeal of loyalty
programmes, and ultimately can lead to customer retention.
4 Pegasus Airlines
Some of the most popular airline apps in Europe in terms of monthly
5 Aeroflot users for 2016 according to AppAnnie.com are, unsurprisingly, those
6 Lufthansa of major low-cost carriers, such as Ryanair and easyJet.
7 British Airways Both Ryanair and easyJet launched loyalty programmes, relatively
recently, in 2016 and 2015, respectively, with the aim of establishing
8 Air France a more personalised loyalty scheme profile for each individual
9 Wizz Air passenger.
10 Vueling Airlines Free seat reservation, priority boarding, an extra bag in addition to a
free return flight are some of the perks these programmes offer.
Source: App Annie.com
Delta and American Airlines allow passengers to store boarding
passes electronically within the Apple Wallet on iPhones, as well as
within Android devices. Other apps provide instant updates regarding
flight status, amongst other information.
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
As mobile platforms continue to evolve and become more user friendly, on-the-go consumers have
increasingly convenient ways of booking their travel itineraries through the mobile channel.
Mobile device usage by consumers within the travel industry – outside of the booking process – is growing,
with operators testing how these devices can enrich the travel experience.
Commerce through mobile phones, tablets and wearable technologies is expected to show strong growth
over 2016-2021, with Colombia amongst the top performers in terms of mobile phone m-commerce, fuelled
by greater mobile connectivity penetration and an improving digital landscape in the country.
Greece Philippines
Poland Poland
US Indonesia
India Morocco
Ukraine UAE
Spain France
Mexico South Africa
Indonesia Thailand
0 30 60 90 120 0 20 40 60 80
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Sales volume
40,000
frequent releases of new
attractive products, leading to 30,000
sales. 300,000
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
USD million
redemption rates for flights, or different perks, such
as cabin upgrades, extra bag for free, access to 20
airport lounges or free flights. In addition, many of
the co-branded cards used as part of the loyalty 15
programmes have high annual fees, and most of
the time are used for purchases outside of the
10
actual flight trip, such as spending with major
retailers.
5
Indeed, the business of co-branded card is
regarded as so profitable that, according to 0
company sources, Delta expects to achieve USD4 American Delta Air United Southwest Alaska
Airlines Lines Continental Airlines Airlines
billion in revenue per year by 2021 from its Holdings
partnership with American Express.
Source: Trade press
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Merchant Card Name Network Annual Fee Purchase Rewards Major Perks
Elite status; Delta Sky Club
access; priority boarding;
Delta Air Delta Reserve American 2 miles/USD (Delta
USD450 Global Assist service; annual
Lines, Inc Skymiles Express purchases)
mileage bonus (spending
requirement)
Premier Access; United Club
United membership; free bags (first
Mileage Plus 2 miles/USD (United
Continental Visa USD450 two and companion); award
Club tickets)
Holdings Inc ticket fee waivers; Hertz elite
status; Hyatt platinum status
Southwest 2 points/USD (flights, Variety of point redemption
Southwest
Rapid Reward Visa USD99 car rentals partners, options; 6,000 anniversary
Airlines Co
Premier hotel partners) points
3 miles/USD (Alaska
Alaska Alaska Airlines USD75 Companion flight fare; free
Visa Airlines purchases)
Airlines Inc Visa Signature checked bag
SAO Parking (Congonhas
LATAM TAM Itaucard and Guarulhos airport);
BRL498
Airlines 2.0 Platinum MasterCard - LATAM ticket instalment;
Group SA MasterCard TAM benefits (priority check-
in, boarding)
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Top 5 Leading Airports ('000 people) 2015-2017 In the battle for increased profitability and
customer loyalty, airlines are seeing competition
Airport Geography 2015 2016 2017 from airport operators which are launching their
Atlanta own rewards schemes. In destinations such as
(ATL) US 101,490 104,172 105,964 Copenhagen, Milan, Florida, London, Chicago and
Airport Atlanta, local airports are already participating or
Beijing have loyalty initiatives.
Capital
China 89,939 94,394 99,113 Heathrow Airport has been very active in
Internation
rewarding travellers for shopping in its retail shops.
al Airport
The Heathrow Rewards programme has been
Soekarno-
Hatta Indonesia 94,814 95,267 95,733 operating since 1999, and the airport has
Airport revamped the programme by launching a digital
Dubai loyalty card and distributing it via smartphones and
United Arab beacon technologies. It has also begun to use
Internation 78,015 83,670 89,390
Emirates cloud-based services, which has improved its
al Airport
Los operational efficiency.
Angeles Such developments are further boosting the
US 74,956 80,922 84,708
(LAX) competition for customer loyalty but also can help
Airport encourage increased travellers' spend per trip.
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
Top Five Airlines Globally for Reward Availability A survey conducted by the IdeaWorks Company
2017 identified the leading airlines in terms of seat
% Total Loyalty reward availability for its customers for USD1
Rank Airline
availability programme spend on base fares. The leader board was topped
Rapid by the low-cost airline Southwest, with its
1 100.0% Southwest
Rewards RapidRewards programme, which, according to the
2 94.3% Jetblue TrueBlue survey provides 100% seat availability for its
customers. Aside from being a low-cost operator,
3 90.7% airberlin topbonus
Southwest seeks to stand out from the competition
Lufthansa/ with a strong focus on customer service. Indeed,
3 90.7% Swiss/ Miles & More Southwest Airlines claims that it consistently has
Austrian the highest customer satisfaction and the best on
5 90.0% Air Canada Aeroplan time performance of all the major US airlines.
Source: IdeaWorks Company 2017 Survey The top three places in the rankings are taken by
airlines targeting customers interested in value for
money, predominantly in North America and
Europe. The Asian carrier China Southern was
placed sixth in the rankings. It has been hoping to
improve its operations, including its loyalty
rewards, by taking on board a new 8% minority
shareholder – American Airlines Group.
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
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INTRODUCTION
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
FUTURE OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Southwest Airlines Co was the fifth largest airline in the world in 2017, with a 3.4% value share.
In 2017, Southwest was the absolute low-cost This initiative will allow the low-cost carrier to boost
leader in the world and in the US. overall efficiency and compete head-to-head
Southwest is undergoing a major operational against the Big Three in the domestic market, and
overhaul, upgrading technology and applications internationally.
that were outdated. Southwest seeks to stand out from the competition
with a strong focus on customer service.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
American Airlines is set to invest a total of USD1.5 billion in 2017 to further improve its product and
operations
American Airlines’ AAdvantage loyalty In 2017, American Airlines AAdvantage ranked sixth in the
programme is part of Oneworld Alliance, Best Airline Rewards Programs US News, based on such
which is among the most popular indicators as network coverage, ease of earning free flights,
programmes globally. It provides travellers award flight availability, additional benefits and airline quality.
with the option to earn five miles for every In May 2017, American opened a newly renovated Flagship
dollar spent on travelling. Lounge and brand new Flagship First Dining at New York’s
John F Kennedy International Airport. The airline also
introduced Flagship First Check-in for loyalty travellers.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
American Airlines Group Inc made some major changes to the AAdvantage programme in 2016, including
the introduction of revenue-based mileage earning. In 2017, AAdvantage announced the introduction of a
fourth elite tier, the introduction of a revenue requirement for status, a change in upgrade priority and a new
upgrade benefit for top tier members.
Advantages changes for 2017
Fourth Elite Tier
• Called Platinum Pro, the fourth elite tier is designated for members who earn 75,000 elite
qualifying miles and/or 90 elite qualifying segments in a calendar year. According to company
sources, the benefits of a Platinum Pro status are free unlimited upgrades within 500 mile eligible
regions, higher upgrade priority than Platinum members, and nine miles per dollar spent.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Singapore Airlines has a strong brand image as a Singapore Airlines’ Krisshop is still the most
leading luxury airline with an attractive loyalty prominent source of income for the carrier. Since
programme. The airline has a balanced portfolio of 2016, Krisflyer members have been able to redeem
high-end schedule, mid range schedule and low- miles on the Krisshop platform, which is expanding
cost carriers, allowing it to service different to include new brands and merchants.
segments of the market.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Krisflyer has expanded its reach to target the dynamic start-up and
SME environment of the Asia Pacific region by introducing a new
programme especially designed for entrepreneurs, whether they are
Corporate travellers: flying as a group or individually.
Highflyer loyalty The programme also offers 5% cash back to businesses.
programme
SIA is not a trend setter in offering corporate frequent flyer packages,
Air France has the Bluebiz programme, Lufthansa has Partnerplus
and Qantas offers the Business Rewards programme.
This could open up a entirely new market for the group and create
loyalty among young customers even before they become frequent
flyers.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
In 2017, Lufthansa launched Amadeus Airport Pay, allowing customer to pay for ancillaries at the
check-in desks or the gate via digital wallets or m-payment devices.
Lufthansa’s rewards scheme Mile & More is one of As of 2017, Lufthansa has equipped all flight
the oldest in Europe, with over 20 years attendants and cabin crew managers with
experience, and wider spectrum of partners. In tablets or “Cabin Mobile Devices”, enabling them
2017, the airline launched a new website, to view the seating plans, and access details
www.miles-and-more.com/fintech, which provides about the flight.
members with information about digital financial This simplifies procedures and management
services, as well as crowdfunding, financial processes, improves customer profiling and
management and digital insurance. If members experience, while improving corporate efficiency.
become clients of these fintech companies they
can also earn more Miles & More points.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Lufthansa’s loyalty programme Miles and More is the key driver for the group’s USD1.3 million in ancillary
revenues. It offers access to 40 airline partners and 270 companies, according to corporate sources. The
scheme is responsible for 57% of total ancillary revenue for the group.
The airline is one of the best performers in this area, although recent changes have attracted criticism from
customers. The airline has consequently introduced more perks and benefits to rekindle Miles & More,
boosting loyalty and brand perception.
Miles & More has partnered with Chinese loyalty app Mileslife,
which allows customers to earn miles by spending in-app at
many local merchants in China, as well as with 40 airline
Mileslife Partnership partners, including 28 members of the Star Alliance.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Corporate Loyalty: The programme started targeting small to mid-sized enterprises in a bid to
reach out to millennials and young entrepreneurs, and boost loyalty among
PartnerPlusBenefit this key target group.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
2017 marks the completion of The Qantas Transformation Program, through which it
realises AUD2.1 billion in benefits.
In February 2017, Qantas launched According to company sources, the new artificial intelligence-
Qantas Concierge, a Facebook backed service is set to become a dominant customer service
Messenger Bot designed to help tool, allowing Qantas to learn from customer interactions and
customers plan a trip. conversations and, ultimately, personalise travel offers.
The initiative made Qantas an official Qantas continues to invest in the customer experience,
Facebook partner, joining companies such particularly in its digital transformation, through innovative
as eBay, Uber and Disney. offerings such as straight-to-gate mobile check-in and the
new small business product offering.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Qantas Airlines is a global carrier which operates one of the most profitable loyalty programmes, with over
11 million members and USD1,454 million in revenues for the 2016 financial year. The loyalty segment of
the business has been strengthening its financial performance by diversifying the type of companies it
works with beyond its frequent flyer arm, such as banks and supermarkets (eg Woolworths).
The external partnerships have helped boost customer engagement and increase market share. Specific
communities have been established by the Qantas Loyalty department, such as Qantas Golf Club.
In 2017 Qantas Loyalty also introduced its first credit card and a new programme, Qantas Business
Rewards, which is focusing on attracting small and medium-sized companies. The launch of the credit card
is aiming to entice customers through day-to-day spending. The company also joined forces with the
leading peer-to-peer accommodation player – Airbnb – to allow its passengers to earn additional points
when they book through this accommodation channel.
The loyalty programme for Qantas is of huge importance to its revenue generation, so much so that in
June 2017 it was the biggest earner for the company.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Qantas expects its loyalty programme’s earnings to almost double by 2022, and it is preparing to sell air
miles to a widening pool of 22 companies, and not just credit card operators.
This is a huge value proposition, given that members will hunt for points, creating an incentive for retailers
to buy miles from Qantas to reward their own customers.
Qantas’s loyalty programme is a very powerful tool in the structure of the airline, so much so that more than
a third of credit card spending in Australia in 2016, which totalled AUD303 billion, was being made on
Qantas co-branded cards.
In 2016, frequent flyers earned more than 120 million points and redeemed 4.9 million flights.
More money
for points
• Partners buy • Points are typically
miles from • Qantas makes money redeemed after 24
Qantas to on every point, as the months, meaning
reward their own cost of redeeming a Qantas generates
customers point is less than the revenues in advance.
Air miles value it is sold for. Higher
sales revenues
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
According to Qantas, its frequent flyer programme is the only business unit to report consecutive earnings
growth since 2012.
In June 2017, underlying profit at the business hit a record AUD369 million, and it seems on course to
reach as much as AUD600 million by 2022.
The current operating margin of 24% makes the loyalty programme more than three times as profitable as
the international aviation business unit, and almost twice as lucrative as domestic operations.
Loyalty
Jetstar
Domestic
International
Freight
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Air France-KLM’s H1 2017 results showed growth, with a net profit of EUR152 million.
In 2016, Air France-KLM launched initiatives to Air France-KLM is working towards improving the
further boost benefits offered through its rewards loyalty proposition by partnering with other airlines
programme Flying Blue to the lowest “Ivory” status and allowing passengers to redeem points from
members of the programme, in order to encourage flights via various companies. In 2017, this
them to use it more and improve their status. included a new partnership with WestJet and Delta.
Among other things, Ivory members have been Air France-KLM is expected to increase its
offered up to a 10% discount on the first footprint in Asia Pacific by sharing loyalty points
chargeable item of baggage, and seat selection as and rewards with Singapore Airlines Group
part of the boost to the programme. companies, including SilkAir and Singapore
Airlines, and potentially Scoot in the longer term.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
High service with Chatbot Increasing focus on children Virtual Reality to the Fore
A “chatbot” is being launched by A new service making travel Air France-KLM created a
Air France-KLM to attend to easier for children is also being virtual reality experience which
customers’ needs, such as launched by the airline, whereby was originally launched at the
tracking checked baggage or parents can book their children’s Viva Technology show.
lost baggage, calculation of trips via the Air France-KLM The programme included a 4D
excess baggage fees and bags app, and can then track their volumetric video for a high-tech
that passengers may want to trips in real time, sharing the immersive experience.
add to their flights. information with the people
Air France-KLM is testing
The system is set to offer expecting the children at the
immersive VR headsets on-
customers a personalised arrival destination.
board for potential use for in-
response, thus replacing human Air France has also launched a flight entertainment, according
resources, which are being new dedicated travel area for to corporate sources.
redirected towards more children travelling alone at
complex customer complaints or Charles de Gaulle airport. The
requests that can only be dealt area is equipped with gaming
with by a live discussion. devices, and offers free Wi-Fi at
This type of innovation maybe all times for children so they can
be perceived as highly efficient stay connected using their
for the airline, but may still face smartphones or tablets.
scepticism from travellers in the
early days of the launch.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
IAG recorded 4.3% growth in revenue passenger kilometres over the six months to 30 June 2017
International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) is among the top three Innovation is at the heart of
players in Europe which has consolidated under its operation several Avios, which in 2017 launched
airline brands, among which are British Airways, Iberia, Iberia Express, an app for Amazon Alexa in a
Vueling, Level, Flybe and Aer Lingus. bid to facilitate the access of
The wide spectrum of companies which the company comprises its members to information
requires the development of better synergies regarding its Avios about their loyalty points and
loyalty programme, especially in a business environment where the membership status.
customer has access to cost-saving points-based initiatives with the
help of the social media.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Loyalty
IAG created its own innovation hub, following in
Outsourcing Lufthansa’s footsteps. Hangar 51 was created in 2016,
and has already funded two start-ups.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Vueling Club’s loyalty Aer Lingus’s loyalty programme The British Airways Executive
programme was rebranded from rebranded from Gold Circle to introduced a “status freeze”
Punto to Vueling Club in August Aer Club, but the transition led possibility in 2017, allowing
2017, and is shifting two million to many members being customers to freeze their
Punto members to Vueling Club, downgraded to a lower status. membership for a year during
turning all points into the IAG’s The result was a PR crisis that periods when they are less likely
main currency: Avios. was poorly handled by to travel.
Under the new programme, management, who remained BA’s Executive Club remains
travellers will be able to collect rather defensive. active and is among the most
and spend IAG’s Avios and use Aer Club’s new scheme is highly regarded loyalty
them to receive discounts or based on how much passengers programmes in Europe. It also
free flights on different Vueling spend per ticket, rather than the adopted the Avios currency in
fare categories, including Basic, number of miles that they fly, 2011.
Optima and Excellence. which also came under fire from Iberia Plus is the only
The group nonetheless chose to some Gold Circle members. programme that is still not being
retain a dedicated Vueling Club, Like Vueling Club, Aer Club will referred to as a “club” but
which will in the future provide shift towards offering customers largely functions in the same
more services to Vueling’s the possibility to redeem miles way as others do, using Avios
customers, albeit using Avios as via hotels, airlines and retailers, as a currency.
its main currency. using Avios as the common
currency.
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BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
Innovation hubs
Globally, airlines are aiming to boost loyalty among customers, either through greater investment in their
loyalty programmes or through technological innovations that can help them differentiate themselves from
the competition.
In Europe, Lufthansa was the first among the key operators to launch an “innovation hub” – a platform
dedicated to support innovative digital start-ups that can develop competitive products and services.
According to corporate sources, the move is seen as a way to outsource innovation and support idea
generation from the most creative players in the market.
IAG mimicked the model of Lufthansa’s Innovation Hub by launching Hangar 51 in 2016. Unlike
Lufthansa’s hub, which announced no major investments, Hangar 51 has invested in two companies,
Esplorio, an app that records and shares travel experiences, and Vchain, which is working on a technology
set to improve and speed up airport processes with the help of biometrics and digital authentication.
Hangar 51 is focusing on four major aspects – improving airport processes, digitisation of the business, big
data analysis while supporting start-ups which can drive more innovative idea for the company and which in
turn can potentially disrupt the airline segment.
In 2017, Hangar 51 launched a second competition which is aimed to support new businesses financially.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 41
INTRODUCTION
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
FUTURE OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Major takeaways
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 43
AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT: HOW TO
RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY
TRENDS SHAPING AIRLINE LOYALTY
BEST IN CLASS EXAMPLES
FUTURE OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Competitor Analytics is a new tool from Euromonitor International that focuses on fmcg companies and
competitors. It visualises the retail sales footprint and performance of more than 25,000 companies by
geography and product category.
Competitor Analytics also maps the competitive landscape for each of these companies, allowing users to
see with whom each company competes and in which specific markets. To do this, the tool calculates a
numeric “distance” between competitors, allowing the user to track how the competitive landscape is
evolving and which companies are becoming strategically more or less similar.
For a detailed explanation of the graphics in each of Competitor Analytics’ four tabs – Overview,
Competitors, Treemap and Overlap Matrices – please refer to the following slides.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 45
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Overview
The Overview tab (shown in the graphic below) provides a global snapshot of a company’s sales footprint
and performance, highlighting where it is winning and losing by country and product category.
It shows company (GBO) retail value sales and absolute growth by countries and categories in current
terms and US dollars at a fixed exchange rate for the years spanning 2008 to 2014.
The grey bars represent value sales in the selected “Start Year”, while the green bars show the subsequent
absolute value sales increase between the user-selected start year and 2014. Red bars denote a retail
value decline over the same time period.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 46
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Competitors
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 47
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Market Overlap
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 48
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Treemap
Treemap (as shown in the graphics below ) shows either overlap with a competitor (the left graphic) or
individual company sales (the graphic on the right) by product category and/or country.
The size of each box indicates the proportional size in US dollars of a country, category or market relative
to the total overlap or sales for the geographies and industries selected.
The colour gradient reflects sales or overlap growth/decline over the selected time period. The darker the
green, the higher the growth, and the darker the shade of pink/red, the stronger the rate of decline.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 49
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Overlap Matrices
Overlap Matrices (as shown in the graphic below) compare two selected competitors (Unilever Group vs
Procter & Gamble Co) in terms of their respective presence across countries and product categories.
The darker the colour shading, the higher the company’s retail value share in that market. The graphic
below shows that Procter & Gamble has a strong share in hair care in China, whereas Unilever is weaker.
Overlap Matrices also highlight respective market gaps and potential white space opportunities. Dark grey
boxes indicate that one of the two companies shown is present in that market, but the other company is not.
A light grey box means that neither of the two selected companies is present.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 50
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
The Industry Forecast Model is a new tool from Euromonitor International that integrates intuitive,
judgment-based forecasting with the quantitative techniques of an econometric Industry Demand Model.
The Industry Demand Model assesses the relationship between several historic quantifiable independent
variables (demand drivers) and historic retail volume sales for different markets that Euromonitor tracks.
In identifying these relationships, the model estimates elasticities for each statistically significant demand
driver, including income growth, changing retail prices, demographic trends and retail channel trends.
Multiplying these elasticities by corresponding year-on-year growth forecasts for each demand driver allows
the Forecast Model to build annualised retail volume and value forecasts for a market in a given year.
While estimated demand driver elasticities are constant, forecast demand driver growth can change over
time. For example, forecast GDP growth for a given year is regularly upgraded or downgraded in
Euromonitor International’s Macro Model to reflect changing economic and sociopolitical conditions.
In turn, changing only forecast growth for GDP in this example allows the Packaged Food Forecast Model
to create multiple retail forecasts that capture the impact of these changing macroeconomic conditions.
Impact of Russia GDP Shock on Chocolate Confectionery Retail Volume Forecast in Russia 2015
2015 real GDP Chocolate income Income effect on 2015 chocolate
% growth forecast elasticity chocolate growth % volume growth
Baseline Forecast
+1.43 0.37 +0.53pp +1.41
(June 2014)
Updated Forecast
-3.82 0.37 -1.41pp -0.55
(December 2014)
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
The power of Euromonitor International’s forecasting methodology is that it blends statistical modelling with
local market observations reflecting local industry consensus. As such, retail market forecasts also rely on
the insights and expertise of Euromonitor’s global analyst network. Euromonitor analysts work closely with
the Industry Demand Model to ensure that it remains consistent with their empirical observations,
guaranteeing that quantitative and intuitive expectations fully complement each other.
Euromonitor analysts also capture all the demand drivers beyond the scope of the Industry Demand Model.
These “soft drivers” remain critical to future retail sales, but are either fundamentally unquantifiable or have
no globally comparable data with which to measure them.
Soft drivers are captured and measured exclusively by empirical research from Euromonitor analysts, and
their overall positive or negative impact is estimated on top of the results of the Industry Demand Model.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 52
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
To help understand and illustrate the impact of each demand driver to a market’s retail growth performance
and prospects, Euromonitor International employs a graphical tool called “growth decomposition”.
The fundamental idea behind growth decomposition is that a product category’s retail sales performance
and future prospects can be explained through changes in underlying demand factors.
As explained above, the impact of demand driver change to retail market sales can be calculated by
multiplying a demand driver’s observed elasticity by that demand driver rate of change over a period of
time. Multiplying demand driver elasticity by forecast demand driver growth yields the percentage points of
overall retail growth that that specific demand driver is contributing to the market forecast under review.
In addition, Euromonitor analysts estimate the impact of “soft drivers” to overall retail growth via their
empirical research. The relative impact and importance of “soft drivers” can be shown alongside that of the
measurable demand drivers identified by the Industry Demand Model.
In the growth decomposition visual below, the percentage points of growth that each demand driver is
contributing to overall market growth are illustrated in the coloured segments of the stacked bar charts.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 53
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
By attributing a fraction of overall retail growth to each contributing demand driver, overall category growth
can be “decomposed”. In doing so, an extensive picture of underlying market fundamentals and processes
on a category-by-category and country-by-country basis can be provided.
Ultimately, growth decomposition allows Industry Forecast Model users to:
Identify different demand drivers that affect historic sales, and will likely impact future market prospects;
Evaluate the relative importance of different demand factors over time and then identify which factors
generate the highest deviations in historic - and ultimately future - consumption;
Illuminate the underlying market dynamics for each product category;
Measure and predict the effects of demand driver shocks, either expected or hypothetical;
Facilitate scenario analysis by generating understanding of which demand factors can be influenced by a
manufacturer or retailer and which are beyond their control.
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 54
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
© Euromonitor International TRAVEL : AIRLINES REMAINING RELEVANT – HOW TO RETAIN CUSTOMER LOYALTY PASSPORT 55
FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Nadejda Popova
Project Manager – Travel
Nadejda.popova@euromonitor.com
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