R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - S C E N A R I O S

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Introduction......................................................................................................2
Alternative Red (worse/critical).......................................................4
Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable).................................................4
Alternative Green (good/prosperous) .............................................4
How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will it be 2015? ..............4
Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Governance and People’s Trust
............................................................................................................................6
Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Demography and Population
Change..............................................................................................................7
Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Migration and Urbanization .....8
Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Environmental Health .............11
Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Economic Trend.......................17
Scenario Cost Assessment ........................................................................20
Planning of today is a continuous process. Once the plan has been approved the
The Scenarios in a Nutshell........................................................................21 implementation process starts. Indicators are defined to measure objective’s fulfillment. The
The GIS Model ...............................................................................................25 predictions and projections made in the plan must be evaluated on regular basis and a
review will be needed before the plan has lost its valid due to unforeseen development and
Methodology.............................................................................................25 other causes that were not able to foresee.
Examples...................................................................................................26
The Plan proposes a method in which the plan is being compared to the actual
Next Step – The Draft Final Plan ................................................................34 development. A number of key drivers have been defined and indicators have been
General Findings and Recommendations...............................................37 arranged:

Introduction

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Below is an example on what Indicators (Scenario Characteristics) are assigned to

Migration and Urbanization:

For each of the Key Drivers there has been an attempt to define indicators
(Scenario Characteristics) for evaluation purposes. Important
characteristics of these indicators are that they should be:

‰ easily understood by all stakeholders;

‰ related to the interests of one or more groups of stakeholders;

‰ measurable using immediately available data at the national and/or

district level level;

‰ clearly related to visions and goal at national (and district) level(s);

‰ linked where possible to the three themes of economic, social and

environmental sustainability.

The indicators should be readily available, easily collected or estimated,

and should not normally require special surveys or studies. Indicators are
not data, rather they are ‘models’ simplifying a complex subject to a few
numbers which can be easily grasped and understood by policy makers
and the general public. Classic indicators include the unemployment rate or
GDP growth, numbers which are powerful and recognizable indicators of
the performance of the economy.

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The next step is to introduce a scoring system with five steps, where 1
indicates a poor value and 5 is the best:
Assessment for Year 2010
Key Drivers ‘Sustainable Score’
1 2 3 4 5
Governance and people’s trust
Demography and population change
Migration and urbanization
Environm. hazards
Economic trend

Likewise, when the Plan is due for revision, in 2015, the method can be used to measure
the actual situation at that time. The idea is the that during monitoring, the characteristics of
the key drivers can be analyzed, trends can be informed about and measures can be taken
The next step is to define the three scenarios; to prevent an unwanted development.:
Alternative Red (worse/critical)
In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues
in an uncontrolled, ad.hoc/laissez-faire mode. It is a ‘predictive’ scenario -
extrapolation of currents trends and processes and business-as-usual;

Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable)

In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues
in a relatively managed and controlled way. It is an ‘exploratory’ scenario
– construction alternative, plausible futures;

Alternative Green (good/prosperous)

In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues
in a very controlled way. It is a ‘normative’ scenario – describing desired
futures and the events that can lead to such futures. And, as an example, arrows can be inserted to indicate which direction the trend has been
moving from 1010 to 1015:
How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will it be 2015?
After defining the indicators, an assessment can be made on how the
situation can be characterized today (2010):

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Many of the key drivers have an impact on land use. Consequently the Plan tries to identify
them and see how they affect the land use. After dissemination by stakeholders and the
general public during the Consultation Period in May, the draft Final Plan will present
relevant (land use) directives, guidelines and planning standards for national sector
planning, district development planning and urban development planning.

The next chapters presents the key drivers and indicators (‘Scenario
Characteristics’) of the three scenarios and some examples on their
implications in a land use perspective. There are mapped presentations
attached to show the land use aspects of the three scenarios. Not all the
key drivers will have a visual and clear impact on land use. However, put
together, the key drivers will inform about plausible future development.
And the future is not going to move into either of the both extreme
scenarios, most probably there will be a combination how key drivers will
influence.

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Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Governance and People’s Trust

Governance and People's Trust
‘Sustainable Score’
Key Scenario Indicator
1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5
Drivers Characteristics
Governance Progress of Lip-service >20% of all revenues are >40% of all revenues
and People’s decentralisation decentralization. All generated and controlled are generated and
policy service are contolled by local governments. controlled by local govt.
trust and managed by the
central government.
0% of total revenues
generated and
controlled by local
governments.
Umudugudu policy Poor or non-existent Slow implementation of Fair implementation of 45% of total population
implementation CAN implementation of Umudugudu policy.25% Umudugudu policy.50% are reported to live in U.
BE MAPPED BY Umudugudu of the total population live of the total population villages. (70% in Vision
DISTRICT policy.10% of the total in villagaes live in villagaes 2020)
population live in
villagaes
Institutional Corruption increases: Widespread auditing but Corrupt officials are Rwanda is ranked as 69
transparency and No auditung of public access to reports is rare and if found out of 180 countries in
accountability spending, No public difficult. F-O-R request dismissed. Rwanda is the international
information to gov process in place but not ranked as 50 out of corruption ranking list
contracts and tenders. used ruitinely. Dismissal 180 countries in the
No high officials being of corrupt officials is rare. international corruption
dismissed due to Rwanda is ranked as 70 ranking list
corruption causes. outof 180 countries in
Rwanda is ranked as the international
100 out of 180 corruption ranking list
countries in the
international corruption
ranking list

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Delivery of basic Slow delivery of public Acceptable delivery of Fair delivery of public Infant mortality rate is
services services. Infant public services. Infant services. Infant >6,7%, literacy rate is
mortality rate is 10% , mortality rate is 3%, mortality rate is >1%, 65%.
literacy rate is 65% literacy rate is 65%. literacy rate is 100%.

Participation in People loose trust in People critical to trust in People have trust in 95% of population vote in
democratic process government. 50% of government. 75% of government. 100% of the parliament.
CAN BE MAPPED registered population registered population registered population
BY DISTRICT vote in the parliament. vote in the parliament. vote in the parliament.

Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Demography and Population Change

Demography and Population Change
‘Sustainable Score’

Key Scenario Indicator

Drivers Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5
Demography Population growth Total population year Total population year Total population year Total population is about
and Population CAN BE MAPPED BY 2020 will be 2020 will be 2020 will be 12,974,000 1024500 (2009)
DISTRICT 14,073,000
Change

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Family planning Household size will Household size will Household size will be Household size is 4,6. No
program(s) CAN BE exceed 6 persons. exceed 5 persons. 75 % below 4,5 persons. 100 % family planning clinic at
MAPPED BY 50 % of the district of the district centers of the district centers District offices. 24% of
DISTRICT centers have a family have a family plannic have a family plannic males and 34% of
plannic clinic. 40 % clinic. 20 % of age clinic. 20 % of age groups females report that they
of age groups 0-15 groups 0-15 are 0-15 are malnourished. are using condoms.
are malnourished. malnourished. 75% of 100% of males and
50% of males and males and females females report that they
females report that report that they are are using condoms.
they are using using condoms.
condoms.

Single mother families 20% 15% 10% In 1992, before

the genocide, 13 percent
of households were
headed by a woman
while in 2005 nearly 21
percent
of households were
headed by a woman.

Spread of HIV CAN Uncontrolled spread, 3% of the population Less than 2% of the 3% of the population
BE MAPPED BY 15% of the infected population infected infected, (Vision 2020
DISTRICT population infected predicted 11%)

Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Migration and Urbanization

Migration and Urbanization 2020
‘Sustainable Score’
Key Scenario Indicator
Drivers Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5

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Migration and Migration to urban 60% of the total 45% of the total 30% of the total ??% of the total
areas, predominantly to population are living population are living in population are living in population are living in
urbanization in urban areas, 40% urban areas, 25% in urban areas, 10% in urban areas, 9% in Kigali
Kigali. CAN BE
MAPPED BY in Kigali City Kigali City Kigali City City
DISTRICT FOR
COMPARATIVE
ANALYSIS

Informal settlement 20% of urban 60% of urban 0% of urban population More than 70% live in
CAN BE MAPPED BY population have population have have services and informal settlements of
DISTRICT FOR services and utilities. services and utilities. utilities. 0% have access urban population and do
COMPARATIVE 40% have access 70% have access to to clean water. not have services and
to clean water. clean water. utilities.
ANALYSIS
Urban sprawl CAN BE 80% of total built up 40% of total built up 5% of total built up area About 80-90%% of total
MAPPED BY area being area being unplanned. being unplanned. All (30) built up area being
DISTRICT FOR unplanned. 6 District 18 District Centers have District Centers have an unplanned. No District
COMPARATIVE Centers have an an approved Urban approved Urban Centers have an
approved Urban Development Plan by Development Plan by approved Urban
ANALYSIS Development Plan 2020 which define 2020 which define Development Plan by
by 2020 which suitable areas for urban suitable areas for urban 2020 which define
define suitable areas expansion. expansion. suitable areas for urban
for urban expansion. expansion.

Rural land 20% increase in the Minimum plot area 0.25 Minimum plot area 0.25 Minimum plot area ?? Ha.
fragmentation CAN BE no. of parcels in rural ha. No change in the no. ha. Decrease in the no. of (Pilote areas)
MAPPED BY areas. of parcels in rural areas parcels in rural areas
DISTRICT FOR
COMPARATIVE
ANALYSIS

Land Registration About 4 million About 7.9 million parcels About 7.9 million parcels ?? Land parcels have
Project progress CAN parcels of land of land parcels of land of land parcels of land been surveyed till 2010.
BE MAPPED BY parcels of land surveyed by 2020. surveyed by 2013. Dispute and adjudication
DISTRICT FOR surveyed by 2020 of Dispute and adjudication Dispute and adjudication measures successful.
which 50% disputes measures successful. measures successful. (Pilote areas)
COMPARATIVE have been resolved,
ANALYSIS

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Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Environmental Health

Environmental Health
‘Sustainable Score’

Key Scenario Indicator

Drivers Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5
Environmental Land degration No natural forests >70% of natural habitat Area of natural habitat
Health and or wetlands exist outside protected areas in outside protected areas has
deforestation. outside protected 2010 still exist. All increased by 30%. A
Bio-diversity areas. National protected areas functioning habitat corridor
parks have been surrounded by buffer exists between Gishwati,
protection. CAN reduced by 20%. All zones, <50% of buffer Mukura and Nyungwe
BE MAPPED BY water bodies are zones offer no Forests. All protected area
DISTRICT undrinkable and conservation value. buffer zones have been
heavily polluted. Habitat corridor exists converted to native
Environmental laws between Gishwati and vegetation for selective
have no community Mukura Forest. <50000 commercial purposes. No
support. Buffer people live within 3km of non-indigenous people
zones do not protected areas. Exotic people live within 3km of
surround all species eradication Protected areas. All
protected areas, do programs in place for all protected areas are free of
not provide any protected areas. exotic species. All
conservation value. communities adjacent to
>200,000 people valuable conservation land
living within 3km of are highly involved and
Protected areas. All supportive of conservation
protected areas are programs.
infested with
invasive species.

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Land Farmers rely Soil conservation Soil conservation

degradation. heavily on fertilisers techniques are applied to techniques are applied to
Agricultural to retain soil fertility. all slopes >13 deg. >50% all land with slopes >13 deg
Suitability. CAN Less than 25% of land with slopes >250 are including teracing and alley
slopes >250 are terraced. No slopes >500 cropping. No land with
BE MAPPED cultivated without are cultivated. <30% of the slopes > 25 deg is
(DISTRICT CASE terraces. land surface area suffers cultivated with annual
STUDY Widespread from erosion. crops. All slopes >50 Deg
GASABO) cultivation of slopes are forested or left fallow.
>500. >70% of the
national land
surface suffers from
erosion.
Private car Car/1000 ratio is Car/1000 ratio is 5 (About Car/1000 ratio is 2, About 4000 private cars in
dependency like Africa on 65,000 private cars in (24,000) private cars in Rwanda 20?? Wikopedia
versus public average 20? Rwanda). Public transport Rwanda) Public transport is 2010 says 2 cars/1000 will
transportation. (280,000Total is used by >40% of the the main mode transport, all result in about 20,000 cars
private cars in population as main mode District Centres are
Non-motorized Rwanda). Public of transport. All District connected by bus. BRT
transport transport is limited Centres and sector with dedicated lanes in all
opportunity. to District Centres. centres are linked by major urban centres. Roads
Public transport is public transport services. in all District Centres have
used by less than allocated bicycle lanes.
X% of the
population.
Adoptation to >80% of all food <50% food produced is <40% of all food is rainfed,
climate change produced is from rainfed. <15% of the <5% of the population live
rainfed agriculture. population live in flood in flood prone areas, <30%
>30% of population prone areas. <30% of all of all energy comes from
live in flood prone energy comes from Hydro Hydro-generation.
areas. >50% genration.
provided by Hydro
generation.

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Hazardous >30% of population <15 of population living on 0% of population lives on

location of built living on slopes slopes >200. <15% of slopes >20 Deg, <5% of
up areas CAN BE >200. >30% living in population living in flood population lives in flood
MAPPED BY flood prone areas. prone areas. >25% of at- prone areas, >50% of at
<5% of at-risk risk building stock is risk building stock is
DISTRICT building stock is resistant to earthquakes. resistant to earthquakes.
(NATIONAL + resistant to
DISTRICT CASE earthquakes.
STUDY
GASABO) See
below
Waste No landfills meet Landfills exist in all major >70% of all waste recycled,
management international urban centres, >40% of 100% of all organic waste
standards. No waste recycled, >70% of used for energy &/or
separation of all toxic waste is agriculture. All District
organic waste. separated but storage centres have a municipal
<10% of waste does not meet landfill that meets
recycled. No international standards, international standards. All
separation of toxic toxic waste is treated and
waste. stored.

In the following pages there are mapped illustration of the current situation on some of the Environmental Health Indicators:

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Scenarios’ Characteristics Regarding Economic Trend

Economic Trends
‘Sustainable Score’
Key Scenario Indicator
Drivers Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5
Economic Incentives/ The Small and Medium The Small and Medium The Small and Medium
trend entrepreneurship/ Business will falls below Business will grow at the Business will raise above
thriftiness among the pace of the population same pace as population the pace of the population
investors and growth growth growth
entrepreneurs. .
GDP compared to 7% 8,50% 9,60%
2008 8,50%
East African Common currency to all Common currency to all Common currency to all
Community member fails. Same member states by 2020. member states by 2012.
tedious process at the Flow of trade at the border Quick and effiecient one-
border crossings by 2015 25% higher than today. stop-shop at the border
as today. Flow of trade at crossings by 2015. Flow of
the border same as today. trade at the border 50%
higher than today.

Commonwealth Commonweatlh Head of Commonweatlh Head of Commonweatlh Head of

membership State Meeting held in State Meeting held in State Meeting held in
Rwanda by 2015. Rwanda by 2015. Rwanda by 2015.

Depenency on foreign 50% of the national 45% of the national 30% of the national 40% of the national
aid budget budget budget budget
Global economic Coffea price and export ?
situation Tea price and export?
Number of international
tourists?

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Level of international No funds available for
investment to Rwanda building of railway. No
funds available to build
new airport.
Funds committed to Funds committed to No funds available
built railway.to be ready built railway.to be ready
2020. Funds committed 2014. Funds committed
to built new airport to be to built new airport to be
ready 2020. ready 2014.

Rwanda Vision 2020

The official Rwanda Vision is also using indicators in combination with targets of which many are reflected in the Plans’ Key Drivers:

Rwanda Vision 2020 (from 2002?)

Indicators Target in Target in Inter-
Situation 2010 2020 national
In 2000 level

1. Rwandan population 7,700,000 10,200,000 13,000,000

2. Literacy level 48 80 100 100
3. Life expectancy (years) 49 50 55
4. Women fertility rate 6 5,5 4,5
5. Infant mortality rate (0/00) 107 80 50
6. Maternal mortality rate for 100000 live births 1070 600 200
7. Child Malnutrition (Insufficiency in %) 30 20 10
8. Population Growth rate (%) 2,9 2,3 2,2
9. Net primary school enrolment (%) 72 100 100 100
10. Gross primary school enrolment (%) 100 100
11. Secondary school transitional rate (%) 42 60 80
12. Gross Secondary school enrolment (%) 7 40 60
13. Rate of qualification of teachers (%) 20 100 100 100
14. Professional and technical training centres 50 106
15. The rate of admission in tertiary education (0/00) 1 4 6

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16. Gender equality in tertiary education (F %) 30 40 50 50

17. Gender equality in decision-making positions (% of females) 10 30 40
18. HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (%) 13 11 8 0
19. Malaria -related mortality (%) 51 30 25
20. Doctors per 100,000 inhabitants 1,5 5 10 10
21. Population in a good hygienic condition (%) 20 40 60
22. Nurses per 100,000 inhabitants 16 18 20 20
23. Laboratory technicians per 100,000 inhabitants 2 5 5
24. Poverty (%< 1 US $/day) 60,4 40 30
25. Average GDP growth rate (%) 6,2 8 8
26. Growth rate of the agricultural sector (%) 9 8 6
27. Growth rate of the industry sector (%) 7 9 12
28. Growth rate of the service sector (%) 7 9 11
29. Ginni Coefficient (income disparity) 0,454 0,4 0,35
30. Growth national savings (% of GDP) 1 4 6
31. Growth national investment (% of GDP) 18 23 30 30
32. GDP per capita in US $ 220 400 900
33. Urban population (%) 10 20 30
34. Agricultural population (%) 90 75 50
35. Modernized agricultural land (%) 3 20 50
36. Use of fertilizers (Kg/ha/year) 0,5 8 15
37. Financial credits to the agricultural sector (%) 1 15 20
38. Access to clear water (%) 52 80 100 100
39. Agricultural production (kcal/day/person (% needs) 1612 2 000 2 200
40. Availability of proteins/person/day (% of needs) 35 55 65 70
41. Road network (km/km2) 0,54 0,56 0,6
42. Annual electricity consumption (kWh/inhabitants) 30 60 100
43. Access to electric energy (% of population.) 2 25 35
44. Land portion against soil erosion (%) 20 80 90
45. Level of reforestation (ha)
46. Wood energy in t he national energy consumption (%) 94 50 50
47. Non-agricultural jobs 200 500 1,400,000

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Neighboring land
Scenario Cost Assessment locked countries
(RDC and Burundi)
Initially, the costs for a Green Scenario realization will be high. Major infrastructure which have even
investments such as the building of the railway from Dar via Isaka to Kigali will need longer distances to
major loan funding (estimations of 4,5 to 2,5 billion dollars has been reported in the ports will also
media). Likewise, other investments like the development of a new airport outside benefit from a
Kigali, upgrading of roads, introduction of green district centre, distribution of railway connection
electricity through a nationwide grid, etc. will be significant. from the Kigali to
the Sea for
However, greater investments in a Green scenario will result in a more sustainable important trade
society in the long term as the benefits in cost and time reduction will imply routes for ores such
favorable gains in both environment and transport costs. as tin and tungsten.

Taking the railway as an example the following positive effects will be reached:
A freight train will need about 12 hours to complete the 1,400 km journey from the
coast – considerably quicker than the two-week truck journey on bad roads with
many roadblocks at present.
At the moment, transport accounts for 40 % of the cost of the imported goods. A
railway connection should cut that to a fifth. Average transport cost in developed
countries accounts for about 9% and about 17% for the least developed countries.
History shows that a railway spurs development along its path opening up business
and trade opportunities. It can also facilitate exploitation of untapped natural
resources which provide the critical level of tonnage to justify the railway.
The environmental effects will also be of importance replacing oil-consuming road
freight with energy-optimized a more mode of long distances transport.
In a Red Scenario, none of the important infrastructure investments will be realized
within the next 10 years and will of not any investment capital. In economic terms it
is a saving in short term but the long term effect will be negative. The cost for
transport of goods for landlocked Rwanda will increase as oil becomes scarce, the

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increased reliance on trucks for transportation will accelerate the cost road
maintenance, lead to increased levels of air pollution in al major urban areas.

The Scenarios in a Nutshell

In the following maps there is an attempt to visualize the consequences of the three
Scenarios by some statements. Basically, it is an extract and simplification of the
Key Drivers and Indicators.

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The GIS Model

Methodology
Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-use
planning purposes. MCDA can be described as a process that transforms and
combines geographic data and value judgments (the decision makers’ preferences)
to obtain information for decision making. In the planning work the focus has been
to develop a nation wide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated in
three main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and environment.

MCDA are often integrated in Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS). An SDSS
is an application that uses analytical methods and models to define alternatives, it is
able to analyse their impact, and interpret and select the best option for
implementation. Three main stages in the process of land-use planning: (1) an
evaluation of land suitability for each land-use type; (2) the optimization of the
different land-use areas; (3) the spatial allocation of land-uses.

The GIS model is largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy
(LUCIS) model. The LUCIS model does not have a specific focus on a certain type
of land-use planning, and is therefore particularly suitable for regional and
countrywide planning. It consists of three general models, describing the suitability
of urban, agriculture, and environment components . Finally, these three land-uses
are combined to identify conflicts.. Many of the goals, objectives, and sub-
objectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adopted
from the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, and
new were created to suit the Rwandan situation.
The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as weighting method. ESRI’s
Figure: The five main steps of the LUCIS model ArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. The
ModelBuilder in ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.2 was used to create the models for all individual

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goals and objectives. The ModelBuilder can be seen as a graphic programming

environment within ArcGIS. All tools from the toolbox, which is a large set of geo-
processing tools, can be used to create complex geographical analysis. Creating
complex models here has the advantage that analysis, which has to be done on
regular basis, does not take much time once they are anchored in a model.

Due to the graphic programming environment, the user does not need
programming skills in order to create the models. Other major advantages are that
they are easy to modify and share with other users. Firstly, suitability maps were
created of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformed
into preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference maps
were collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, the
preference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order to
visualize conflict areas.

The NLC’s Orthophotos proved to be useful when acting as reference for the
suitability and preference maps. Despite all datasets were not available from sector
authorities; the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding.

Examples
In the following pages examples are presented on the result of the modeling at
national level.

Furthermore, there are some examples applied at District level which are
recommended to be found in the proposed concept for local level planning – the
Integrated District Development Plan, see Chapter Housing and Urbanization:

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Next Step – The Draft Final Plan Below is an example how an Area of National Interest can be shown in An
Depending on the reactions by the stakeholders and general public during the (Integrated) District Development Plan:
Consultation Period, the Part II documentation will be revised and condensed into a
Final Plan. The Final Plan will present ONE land use development proposal for the
planning horizon of 2020. In order implement the proposed land use the Final Plan
will also include the following:

Mandatory regulations for land use that national sector authorities and local
government must pay respect to to. For example, in the Plan there will be a map
showing ‘Areas and Nodes of National Interest for Agriculture Production’. It means
that agriculture land use has the highest priority in the areas shown on the map and
other land uses have to respect that. It also implies that the national sector plans
and District Development Plans must show that they have observed the regulation
and the reasons behind. Furthermore, the respective authorities must not propose
anything in their plans that will be in conflict with the national interest..

Guidelines for Sustainable Land Use Development. Below are examples on

how these guiding principles could look like are found in the Baseline Studies. The
purpose is to inspire and guide sector planning and land use planning at District
and urban levels:

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(Land use) Planning Standards. The standards are recommendation on spatial

implications on distribution of public services and utilities, for example the
recommended distance between home and the nearest health center. The purpose
of these standards, which have been agreed on by the ‘custodian’ sector authority,
are that they can be used to identify inequalities of public services and utilities in
comparative analyses and to make relevant proposals to harmonize social,
economic and environmental factors.

It can also be geometric standards for example the right of way for a new national
road, which should be taken into consideration in land use plans, see below:

There are more examples on proposed land use planning standards found in the
Baseline studies.

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General Findings and Recommendations Efforts to reform the agriculture sector to move from subsistence to cash
crop farming need to be supported by trade and economic incentives for
In a land use context for the planning horizon till 2020 some general findings and the rural population;
recommendations are as follows:
In the situation analyses made during the Baseline preparation, it was
Major environmentally friendly infrastructure and energy investments are found that there occasionally is a lack of coordination and cooperation
needed in the near future to transform the land locked Rwanda into a between sector authorities which causes land use conflicts. Hopefully, the
society ready to battle with an alarming global climate change. Plan will make these constraints more transparent and encourage a
corporate will among the government stakeholders so that one land use
A modern concept for (Integrated) District Development Planning has to has priority over others for a specific area in the future;
be introduced to harmonize with the National Plan and to match future
demands for (equitable) service provision, (decentralized) economic The national sector authorities sometimes lack methods and indicators to
development and (sustainable) environmental health realized through steer resources to achieve equitable (spatial) distribution of services and
decentralized and participatory decision-making; utilities. Use of modern technology such as GIS for spatial optimization is
therefore recommended;
Capacity strengthening is needed at District level to give the local
government a chance to coop with the increasing responsibility for It is recommended that the new NLC Portfolio of nationwide high
sustained land use development; resolution orthophotos and base maps in combination with modern
analysis tools such as GIS and RS, should be used to identify and
The Umudugudu Policy needs an urban ‘sister’ to prevent accelerated prevent environmental degradation by all concerned stakeholders both at
migration to existing urban areas, predominately Kigali City. This central an local government level;
‘Umujyji’ Policy aims to counteract unplanned habitation and the increase
of informal settlements with poor services and unhealthy conditions.
Rwanda is still a low urbanized country and has a unique opportunity to
set the standards for sustainable urban development that most African
countries fail to do at the moment. The next ten years will be crucial if
Rwanda will be a success story in this respect or join the other that has
flopped. Likewise, the urban planning should now take advantage of
available spatial data in combination with modern analysis and
presentation tools, strengthen the participatory process at local
government level to make it possible to design a modular alternative of
sustainable urban development;

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