Coronavirus: Threats and strategies to deal with it

Threats
1. Fractured health system
0.6 bed per thousand people in Pakistan- (dawn report)
14m cases world wide and 500,000 deaths
Shortage of doctors at 200,000 (UN)
40% death America old age homes -> washington post
Mental health impacted
2% GDP on health care compared to global average 10%

2. Economy strangulated
 Bn $ 15 loss to Pakistan Asian development Banks
 Global economy contract 3% - (World Economic Outlook)
 Record fall pushes global PMI to lowest since 2009-(Global PMI report)
 Impacts for developing countries
 125 mn citizens could fall below poverty lines(PIDE)
 Shutdown of businesses -> decrease personal income- => less big purchases.
 Slow down of progress on CPEC.
 Largest single week decline in stock markets
 5 year for many sectors to get back to 2019-level contributions to GDP-(Mckinsey)
 40 % below poverty line pakistan -> UN

3. Education impacted & School closures

 100 countries imposed a nationwide closure on educational facilities

 900 mn learners impacted by the closure of schools/ 60% of the world’s population- (UNESCO)
 Socio economic impacts as some schools provide free meals to low income populations
 A recent study found that 27% families couldn’t go to work as they care for children

 9. Increase unemployment, many furloughed

Pakistan unemployment surge to 28% (PIDE)
36m people globally corona (New York times)

4.Supply Shortages

 Closure of Chinese companies disrupts supply , 27% imports Pakistan China –(Observatory of
economic complexities)
 Pakistan textile sector relies on the bulk of Chinese imports- 70% of input needs(The news)
  Panic buying and increased use of goods
 WTO world trade fall by 32%

5. Agriculture and Food insecurity

 A global crash in demand from restaurants has caused a fall of 20% in price of agricultural
commodities-> impact on farmers and livelihood’s(International Journal of Surgery)
 Fall in number of workers required for harvesting./transportation
 Many food gone bad
 Panic buying and hoarding
 The fall in profitability will increase rural urban migration
 Problem further exacaberated by attacks of locust storms

6. Rise in Xenophobia

As the virus has spread from China. Many people with Chinese descent have been ostracized.
(Economist)

Trump calling it Chinese virus(Washington post)

Turned inwards

Bickered with each other and made rivals scapegoats for own mistakes.

7. Human rights suppression during corona virus.

China enforced early censorship and movement of information. Health workers who raised
awareness jailed or fired. Social media activists.

Pretext for violating people’s freedom.

Autocratic regimes worldwide have curtailed people rights and freedoms.

Press harassed and not allowed to criticize gov(UN)

Implementation restrictions in discriminatory ways

Limit the right to information

Right to health- > People sent back after queues BBC

Freedom of movement

Right to privacy

Discrimination -> brunt of restrictions only on the poor and weaker segments

There is a fear among certain circles that the rights curtailed might be normalized over time.

10. Civil unrest and riots

 America increase in weapons buying (VOA)

Income inequality, labour conditions and alienation political system perfect grounds to foster
unrest(Frobes)

Especially for conflict ridden countries like Afghanistan -> direct spillover effect on Pakistan

8. Gender Based Violence

 Due to increased tension in the households, women and girls likely to experience high risk of
intimate partner._(United Nation Population Fund)
 In Kosova 17% increase in gender violence.(UNFPA)

Strategies

1. Overcoming health impacts

Capacity building and investments in Health industry
Pakistan health budget a meagerly 2.5% of GDP

 Making essential health services available to those in need and protecting health
systems.

Helping people cope through social protections and ensuring basic services and food
security.

governments need to follow China in taking direct action against Covid-19.

Nobody on the frontlines should be constrained by a lack of funds. Hospital
intensive-care units must be expanded; temporary hospitals must be built; and
respirators, protective gear and masks must be mass-produced and made
available to all who need them. Beyond that, public health authorities must be
given the resources and funds they need to disinfect factories and other public
spaces. Hygiene is the order of the day. Large-scale testing of the population is
particcularly important. The identification of each case can save multiple lives.
Surrendering to the pandemic simply is not an option.

2.OverCome Economic impacts

 government has introduced a short-time work allowance and granted
generous credit assistance, guarantees or tax deferrals for distressed companies.
Job retention scheme
 Protecting jobs, supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises, and shoring up the most
vulnerable workers through economic recovery programs.

Spend money to prevent, detect, control, treat, and contain the virus, and to
provide basic services to people that have to be quarantined and to the
businesses affected. For example, national governments can allocate money
for local governments to spend in these areas or mobilize clinics and medical
personnel to affected places, as China and Korea have done.
 Provide timely, targeted, and temporary cash flow relief to the people and
firms that are most affected, until the emergency abates
Give wage subsidies

Implement targeted financial measures

Provide tool for health workers. New budgets to support small and medium enterprises.

Role of IMF for developing countries

Emergency Financing

Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust

Capacity development

3. Global coordination & Trust

 Sharing information
 Collaboration of Scientists
 Sharing of resources and technical know-how and best methods
 Global cooperation on supply chains-> global economy-> remove tariffs and encourage
movement of goods
 Increase cooperation in production and distribution, global supply chains
 Cooperation on travel-> allow movement of relavent personnel.
 Activate WHO- opportunities for cooperation,joint planning and collaboration
 Forego nationalist stances that have put them at odds with WHO


4. Ensuring food security
 Abolish taxes on food items
  Deferred utility bills
 Subsidize government run utility stores
 Cash transfers BISP
 Support food distribution channels
 Raise awareness
 Monitoring of food availability and prices


Develop public sector

Global debt readjustments

Developing countries owe $11 tr in external debt.

9. Capacity building for the future

UN and WHO set guidelines on how to approach future disasters

Disaster Management programs

Early warning system in case of resurgence

5. Transparency in Governance

Working and studying remotely

Leadership and trust in Science

6. Centralized decision making and decentralized local bodies

Importance of local goveenments.

Local governance is an integral pillar for service delivery, state and community
representation and responsiveness. It provides effective control and outreach at the tehsil and
village level
Germany has been able to ramp up its testing services and lower the mortality rate due to the
devolution of its health policy, which is managed and executed by 400 health offices rather than
a centralized authority. [2] This has allowed them to have different models for testing, set-up by
different offices according to their need and resources

8. .Innovative methods of teaching

Teleschools

Pakistan government - > radios and televesion

 7. Business goes Digital

Important to invest in enabling technologies like cloud, data and cyber security