Air Travel • ICAO

• IATA

• ForwardKeys
Hospitality STR, the impact of COVID-19 on the global hotel
The impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1

67 million fewer international tourist arrivals

80 US$ billion lost in exports

100% destinations with travel restrictions

Looking Ahead
 Domestic demand expected to recover faster than
international demand

When do you expect tourism demand for your destination 3- When do you expect international demand for your
will start to recover? destination will start to recover?
50% 45% 100%
39% 90%
40% 34%
80%
70%
30% 24% 25% 60%
50%
20% 14% 15% 40%
30%
10% 20%
3%
10%
0% 0%
By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021 Africa Americas Asia and the Europe Middle East
Pacific
International Domestic By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021
 Scenario not forecasts
Assumptions
 Scenario
Assumptions
Progressive decline in arrivals in Q1 2020, with 57% drop in March
International tourist arrivals (YoY monthly change, %)
2019 2020

+10 +7 +6
+4 +4 +2 +2 +3 +3 +4 +3 +3 +2
+2

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
-10
-9

-30

-50

-57

-70

-90
 Forward-looking scenarios depend on re-opening of borders
International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)
+2
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

-9
Actual data*
-20 Scenario 1: -58%
Scenario 2: -70%
Scenario 3: -78%

-40

Gradual opening of borders

-57 and lifting of travel restrictions
-60
in July in September

in December
-80

-100
Arrivals could drop 58% to 78% depending on pace of normalization

15
10
9.4
6.4 7.0 5.7 6.6 6.6 7.2 5.7
3.0 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.2 4.8 3.8 3.8
5 1.9
0.1 -0.4 -4.0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
(e) (sc)
-10
-15
2003
-20 SARS 2009
-25 2001 epidemic Global economic
Sept 11th crisis
-30 attacks
-35
-40
-45 2020 Scenarios
COVID-19
-50
Scenario 1: -58%
-55
Scenario 2: -70% -58
-60 Scenario 3: -78%
-65
The above are not forecasts. They are scenarios
-70 based on the possible opening of national -70
-75 borders and lifting of travel restrictions in July,
Sept. and Dec. 2020 respectively. -78
-80
 Crisis could severely impact summer season (northern hemisphere)
International tourist arrivals by months, 2020: three scenarios (millions)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

180 Scenario 1 arrivals 180 Scenario 3 arrivals

Scenario 2 arrivals 180
Loss versus 2019 Loss versus 2019
Loss versus 2019
150 150 150

120 120 120

+2% +2% +2%
90 -9% 90 -9% 90 -9%
-57% -57% -57%

60 60 60

30 30 30

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.