6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum

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Global Strategic Foresight Community

CONTENTS
 Aviation and Travel Security and Governance

A New Space Age

Maximizing Global Benefits

Thomas E. Cremins, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

(NASA)

When the 1958 launch of Sputnik started the first Space Age, a handful of world powers commanded the
resources and technology necessary to explore space. Today, a second Space Age is involving varied
actors – commercial operators, public/private partnerships and established and emerging spacefaring
nations – who together will increase the scope for creating new markets and industrial sectors and
unleashing future waves of innovation. These could bring a multitude of benefits, including addressing
global challenges such as potentially hazardous asteroids and accessing resources and conducting
research on the Moon, near-Earth asteroids and Mars. However, realizing these benefits will require
ongoing and expanded national collaboration, including the development of global norms, such as a
code of conduct, to ensure space remains accessible, sustainable and a frontier of continued relevance
and growth.
 

Space is becoming both more accessible and more relevant. A growing number of Share this page:

governments and private companies are getting involved and a wide range of new
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applications are being developed. The steady emergence of a space economy will
have broad and far-reaching effects on the global economy, creating opportunities
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for billions of people. How can we ensure that space is developed sustainably for
the benefit of all? At the same time, we are experiencing a dramatic explosion of
knowledge related to epic questions such as are we alone and what does the
universe look like? This shift creates fundamentally new opportunities on individual, Author
organizational and global levels.

At the beginning of the first Space Age, signalled by the launch of Sputnik in
1958, a handful of world powers commanded the resources and technology
necessary to explore space. Today, a second Space Age is evolving with a
proliferation of actors in a multitude of activities. 
 
Thomas E. Cremins
The current “space economy” – from the edge of space to low-Earth orbit, the
Senior Advisor to the
location of the International Space Station, and further out to geo-synchronous
Administrator for Strategy and
orbit, home to a valuable ring of satellites – generates roughly $300 billion in annual
Policy Implementation, National
revenue. We meanwhile are starting to expand our presence in space by fostering
Aeronautics and Space
human and robotic activity in a deeper region that includes the Moon, near-Earth
Administration (NASA)
asteroids and Mars.

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6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum
Traditional space powers are extending their efforts in low-Earth orbit and the Disclaimer
regions beyond, while the ability to utilize space has dramatically shifted to include All opinions expressed herein are those
dozens of developed and developing nations, large and small companies and of the authors. The World Economic
Forum provides an independent and
private entrepreneurs. In the last decade, new spacefaring nations have gained impartial platform dedicated to
generating debate around the key
experience building satellites and developing applications from their data, topics that shape global, regional and
industry agendas.
broadening space accessibility. 

Highlight
In the United States, commercial space companies are providing some of the
cargo transportation and other services to the International Space Station. In the A New Space Age: we need a
near future, this will also include the transportation of astronauts.  code of conduct to continue
to unleash the benefits of
space
Recent history suggests that the diffusion of space technology and
applications will have transformative effects on human development.
Encouraging private sector involvement in space increases the scope for creating
new markets and industrial sectors and unleashing future waves of innovation,
which could bring a multitude of benefits. So what is the best way to lay the
building blocks to develop a viable and sustainable economy in low-Earth
orbit? 

A blending of commercial activities and government space efforts will likely

continue to evolve as the public sector supports a range of systems, technologies
and applications within public-private partnerships, and private sector actors
further mature technologies and capabilities.

In addition, a broad strategy would involve established spacefaring nations

partnering with emerging space powers to foster mutually beneficial cooperation,
strengthen norms and increase stability in space. This cooperation can take many
forms with varying degrees of intensity. For example, the United States, Europe,
China, Japan, India and other international partners are building constellations of
satellites that increasingly operate as part of an overall Earth observation system
that provides data to the general public worldwide. 

The benefits are already astounding, as millions of people use these data for
educational, scientific and commercial applications, such as improving classroom
instruction and local agriculture; forecasting outbreaks of disease; detecting forest
fires; and monitoring natural resources. The beneficial impact on quality of life will
only increase if we have the strategic foresight and political will to improve space
accessibility. 

Concerted action by governments around the world will be necessary to

ensure space accessibility and relevancy continues to be sustainable and to
grow. With the proliferation of interested public and private actors, space is
becoming increasingly crowded, raising issues such as orbital debris and
interference. We also need to thoughtfully address the use of space resources,
such as planetary and celestial materials.

Space sustainability, or the ability of all nations and actors to utilize and access
space for peaceful purposes, may be best achieved when a code of conduct
governs actions and responsibilities. Ideally, as the number of actors benefiting
from space rises, the pool of stakeholders expands, creating a powerful source of
stability as norms regarding long-term sustainability of outer space become more
widely shared. 

How best can we enable cooperation to expand the scope and benefits of space
efforts while stimulating healthy competition among both public and private
actors? How can we ensure that space is managed sustainably as access
increases? 

While we manage the stewardship of space responsibly and encourage the

development of a sustainable space economy, we also seek to expand human
presence further beyond low-Earth orbit and deeper into space. This next wave of
expansion offers new opportunities and benefits for future generations by
improving fundamental human knowledge, addressing global challenges such as

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6/9/2015 Global Strategic Foresight Community - Reports - World Economic Forum
potentially hazardous asteroids and enabling us to utilize resources and conduct
research on the Moon, near-Earth asteroids and Mars. 

How can we best formulate and implement these activities to achieve broad
benefits for the world and increase economic opportunities and growth? Placing
this shift on the global agenda is important to build on existing momentum for the
sustainable use of space and to address the significant challenges of an
increasingly complex and vital frontier.

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