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Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN) : Q1FY20 Result Update
Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN) : Q1FY20 Result Update
Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN) : Q1FY20 Result Update
Change in Estimates | Target | Reco 8 store additions in 1QFY20, due to spillover of FY19
Change in Estimates
Gross Margins up 50bps despite stated strategy to reduce prices across
Current Previous
FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E consumer categories. 1Q gross margins not a reflection of full year’s margin
Rating HOLD HOLD
Target Price 1,338 1,338 Cost of retail declined by 55bps YoY, 113bps QoQ
Sales (Rs. m) 257,953 330,863 257,953 330,863
% Chng. - -
EBITDA (Rs. m) 22,124 28,935 22,124 28,935 OFS and QIP (Approx. Rs62bn), remains an overhang on the stock
% Chng. - -
EPS (Rs.) 20.3 27.3 20.3 27.3
D’Mart has sustained strong sales momentum led by Everyday low price
% Chng. - -
model, strong value proposition and clusters based strategy. D’Mart has
added 8 stores in 1Q20, however large part of store openings are a spillover
Key Financials - Standalone
of FY19. Though 1Q20 gross margins were higher, we believe it will normalize
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Sales (Rs. m) 150,332 200,045 257,953 330,863 in the coming quarters. It continues to maintain its growth strategy of gradual
EBITDA (Rs. m) 13,528 16,333 22,124 28,935 acceleration in store openings (added 21 stores in FY17, 24 in FY18 and 21 in
Margin (%) 9.0 8.2 8.6 8.7
PAT (Rs. m) 7,678 9,025 13,174 17,713 FY19) and strong throughput in stores.
EPS (Rs.) 12.3 14.5 20.3 27.3
Gr. (%) 60.4 17.5 40.4 34.5 We believe benefits of higher store openings in 1Q boosted sales while 40bps
DPS (Rs.) - - - 1.0
margin expansion was led by operating leverage. We estimate 37.4% PAT
Yield (%) - - - 0.1
RoE (%) 18.0 17.6 17.0 16.5 CAGR over FY19-21. However, valuations at 49.8xFY21 EPS factor in the
RoCE (%) 22.9 25.5 24.2 23.3 expected growth. Maintain Hold with a target price of Rs1338 although
EV/Sales (x) 5.6 4.3 3.3 2.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 62.6 52.1 38.9 29.9
absolute returns might be back ended due to estimated fresh supply of
PE (x) 110.5 94.0 67.0 49.8 ~Rs62bn in QIP and OFS by March2020.
P/BV (x) 18.2 15.2 8.9 7.6
1Q20 reports strong sales momentum: Net Sales increased 26.8% to Rs57.8bn.
Key Data AVEU.BO | DMART IN Gross margins at 16.1% increased 50bps on conscious strategy to reduce prices
52-W High / Low Rs.1,699 / Rs.1,126
across consumer categories. 1Q gross margins are usually not a reflection of full
Sensex / Nifty 38,736 / 11,553
Market Cap Rs.848bn/ $ 12,361m year’s margin. EBIDTA increased 41% to Rs5.96bn. Cost of retail declined by
Shares Outstanding 624m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.1368.04m
55bps YoY (113bps QoQ) led by 10bps and 50bps decline in employee cost and
overheads. Adj. PAT grew at 33.8% to Rs3.35bn as tax rates declined by 14bps
despite increase in Interest cost and depreciation by 67.3% and 85.9% and
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoter’s 82.20
decrease in other income by 16.2%. Adj PAT increased 33.8% to Rs3.35bn.
Foreign 5.45
Domestic Institution 3.01
Public & Others 9.34 IND AS Impact on PAT limited, store openings accelerate: Impact of IndAS 116
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - has led to overstatement of EBITDA by Rs191mn and understatement of PBT by
36.1mn. Ignoring the changes, comparable EBITDA would have grown 36.5% to
Stock Performance (%) Rs5.8bn and Adj. PAT would have grown 34.7% to Rs3.38bn. D’Mart added 8
1M 6M 12M
stores in 1Q taking the total stores to 184 stores.
Absolute 3.7 (13.5) (14.4)
Relative 6.5 (19.6) (19.2)
Amnish Aggarwal
amnishaggarwal@plindia.com | 91-22-66322233
Nishita Doshi
nishitadoshi@plindia.com | 91-22-66322381
Added 8 stores in 1QFY20; Cost of retail down 55bps YoY and 113bps QoQ
3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
No of Stores 141 155 157 160 164 176
Area (mn Sq.ft.) 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
Sales/Ft 9,304 7775 9181 9637 10531 9504
Gross Profit/Ft 1,525 1157 1434 1381 1547 1369
EBIDTA/FT 958 601 851 771 876 711
Cost of retail % 6.1 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.9
Source: Company, PL
Bill Cuts increased by 28% to 172mn in FY19 LTL growth at 17.8% in FY19
10.6
2.0 5.0
5.1
3.9
5.8
8.0
7.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Sales/Sq. ft. increased 8.9% in FY19 Foods continue to remain the highest contributor
Sales/ sq.ft Growth (RHS) Foods Non Foods General merchandise & Apparel
11.3
50000 10.6 12.0 100%
9.5 25.9
8.9 10.0 26.4 26.4 28.4 28.3
40000 80%
6.6 8.0 21.2 20.6 20.0
30000 60% 20.0 20.5
5.1
6.0
20000 40%
4.0
52.8 53.1 53.7
28136
31120
35647
39669
43429
32719
51.6 51.3
10000 2.0 20%
0 0.0 0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
ITO has stabilized, FA turnover to increase further Equity dilution to impact ROE marginally
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY21E
FY20E
0.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Debt likely to increase post debenture issue CFO to increase at 15.9% CAGR over FY19-21
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
FY20E
FY21E
Source: Company, PL Source: Company, PL
Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
EBIT 11,938 14,208 19,470 25,629 Capital Work In Progress 1,471 3,768 5,000 5,000
Margin (%) 7.9 7.1 7.5 7.7 Goodwill 783 783 783 783
Non-Current Investments 414 324 324 324
Net Interest 595 472 285 247 Net Deferred tax assets (450) (633) (846) (1,132)
Other Income 693 484 1,082 1,868 Other Non-Current Assets 876 1,136 1,508 1,754
(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
1675
1 4-Jul-19 HOLD 1,338 1,433
Sep - 18
Dec - 17
Jul - 19
Mar - 17
Feb - 19
7 14-Oct-18 Reduce 1,286 1,412
8 5-Oct-18 Reduce 1,301 1,346
9 30-Jul-18 Reduce 1,285 1,595
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