Description of ITRS, Details about Moore’s law, Its current status, future, and our

perception about it.

Group - 6
1506067 - Mohd Ehteshamul Sayem, 1506081 - Anik Paul, 1506134 - Husni Mahdi
1506146 - Iztihad Mahfuz Ifti, 1506148 - Md. Hasibur Rahman, 1506165 - A.B.M.Zawadul Islam
1506176 - Joyanta Mitra, 1506187 - Mohammad Anwarul Hoque Arif, 1506195 - Aung Shine

ITRS and its Roadmap:

The International Technology Roadmap for
Systems
Semiconductor (ITRS) is basically a guideline by the Integration
industry experts to propel the advancement of the
industry. It directs the research options for future
development of the industry. These options are divided More than Outside System
More Moore Beyond Moore
Moore Connectivity
into 17 working groups. Which are; System Drivers,
Design, Test & Test Equipment Test & Test Equipment,
Process Integration, Devices, & Structures Process
Heterogeneous Heterogeneous
Integration, Devices, & Structures, RF and A/MS integration Components

Technologies RF and A/MS Technologies, Emerging

Research Devices Emerging Research Devices, Emerging
Research Materials Emerging Simulation, Front End Heterogeneous
More Moore
Integration
Processes, Lithography, Interconnect, Factory
Integration, Assembly & Packaging, Environment, Safety
& Health, Yield Enhancement, Metrology, Modelling & Factory
Integration(Manufacturi
ng)
Simulation, MEMs (Micro Electro Mechanical systems)

From theses working groups it is mapped into 7 focus

points which are,
Figure1: Hierarchy of ITRS
ITRS 2.0, seven focus points

System Integration: deals with architecture and

integrating heterogeneous blocks.
Outside System Connectivity: deals with wireless
technology.
Heterogeneous Integration: focuses on integrating
separately manufactured technology into one.
Heterogeneous Components: deals with
heterogeneous system, such as power generation and
sensing device.
Beyond CMOS: focuses on electronics which are not
CMOS.
More Moore: continue to shrink CMOS
Factory Integration: Manufacturing process
Importance of IRTS:
Manufacturing a semiconductor device requires several
critical operations. Al these operations are performed
by machines. And all these machines are not
manufactured by a same company. Collaboration of
others are required. In that case, a collaborative effort
is needed. If one sector improves significantly than
others it will not result in overall improvement of the
whole process. For that reason, a guideline is mandatory
to pave the way for the development of constructing
semi-conductor device. ITRS provide the guideline
which break down the whole process into 17 groups and
7 focus points for efficient and convenient production of
semi-conductor devices.
 doping levels are scaled by a factor of ‘s’ the electric field
Details of Moore’s Law: remains constant. In practical life the scaling factor,
s≈√2.
Moore's Law refers to Moore's perception that the
number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two
years, though the cost of computers is halved. Moore's
Law states that we can expect the speed and capability
of our computers to increase every couple of years, and
we will pay less for them. Another tenet of Moore's Law
asserts that this growth is exponential.

Figure 3: Transistors per microprocessor vs time

Transistor count has increased immensely over the

time. Figure 2 shows a timespan from 1971 to 2017 and
in these 40 years of time range transistor count has
increased from 10000 to 10 billion. And this illustrates
the Transistor Count observation of Gordon Moore.

Figure 2: Number of components per Integrated function

for minimum cost per component extrapolated vs time
(Moore-1965)

Gordon Moore published a paper in 1965 named,

“Cramming more components onto integrated
circuits.” With a subheading, “With unit cost falling as
the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975
economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000
components on a single silicon chip.” There he stated
his observation about transistor count on integrated
circuits. And his observation was that the trend will Figure 4: Transistors feature size vs time
follow up to 10 years from then. But the observation still
holds true today. With time the law is a bit modified by
technologists as follows “Feature size shrinks by 30% Over the year Feature size has decreased from 10
every 2-3 years.” In 1974 Robert H. Dennard a micron to 7nm. In this feature size range Dennard
researcher at IBM co-authored a paper that describes Scaling and Moore’s Law is well followed in the
MOSFET Scaling later known as Dennard Scaling. submicron and nanometer level. Specifically, from 350
Dennard Scaling postulated that as transistors get nm to 45 nm in this range every subsequent
smaller their power density stays constant, so that the technology’s feature size is 1/√2 of the previous
power use stays in proportion with area. More technology.
specifically if the transistor size, voltage (VDD) and
 Samsung and TSMC already announced their 5nm
Current Status of IC products (A14 for Apple, also products for NVIDIA’s
Fabrication Technology: 2021 GPUs, Qualcomm’s SD 875 and AMD’s Zen 4).

As per predictions concerning Moore’s Law, transistors

were thought could NOT be smaller than 10nm. But
currently we have products on 7nm gate size and 5nm
as well under fruitful development. But as the scale of
chip components gets closer and closer to that of
individual atoms, it's gotten harder to keep up the pace
of Moore's Law. It's now more expensive and more
technically difficult to double the number of transistors
-- and thus the processing power -- for a given chip every
two years.
7nm is based on FinFET technology. Transistors from
14nm required this new design of the MOSFET as
traditional planar MOSFETs leaked too much current
due to Quantum Tunnelling. FinFETs offer much more
control over the channel via Gate Voltage.
Many latest ICs now use 7nm process. TSMC started the
trend from 2017 on their 256 Mbit SRAM. Soon after
Samsung, Apple (on their A12 Bionic chip), AMD (on
their Zen 2 CPUs i.e. Ryzen 3000 series and ROME)
followed.
As of 2019, the largest transistor count in a
commercially available microprocessor is 39.54 billion
MOSFETs on a die of size 74mm2, in AMD's Zen 2 based
Epyc Rome, which is fabricated using TSMC's 7 nm
FinFET semiconductor manufacturing process.
5nm required another level up of MOSFET technology.
New forms of MOSFET layouts are being developed but
so far the most successful structure has been, Gate-all-
around FETs.
GAAFETs provide substantial increase in channel
control, compared to previous form of MOSFETs.
Nanowire GAAFETs are too hard to manufacture
considering the gains. But the Nano sheet GAAFETs
(a.k.a. Multi-Bridge-Channel FETs) are easier and
cheaper hence more feasible option for commercial use
and development.
Figure 5: MCBFET
Hence, we can see, Moore’s law is still not dead yet, as
transistors are still getting smaller and their count
raising each year. Though Quantum Tunnelling has
posed to be a problem, innovations of transistor design
layout has enabled us to decrease transistor size thus
far. This coupled with development in Lithography
Technology (use of Extreme-Ultra-Violate-Lithography)
has enabled us to image more and more tiny circuits on
the silicon wafers, turning them to the intricate chips we
use daily.
Intel, for its part, doesn't think Moore's Law is dead.
Their new 3D chip stacking technology, called Foveros,
stacks different chip elements directly on top of each
other, a move that should dramatically increase
performance and the range of chips Intel can profitably
sell.
Though some, like Huang, have declared Moore's Law to
be over, materials scientists continue to dig into
alternatives, for instance, super thin sheets of carbon
graphene. The industry is embracing other kinds of
computing techniques using GPUs (which Nvidia
makes), advanced software frameworks and tools, and
new ways of packaging the chip circuitry.

Figure 6: Various FET Technologies

Being in later stages of development it is hoped 5nm

process transistor would hit the market by 2021, with
 application of new transistor concepts. This direction
Future of Moore’s Law for further progress is labeled “More Moore”.
Will Moore’s Law Ever End?

Moore’s law will end. It’s not like a law of physics, but
just an observation which turned out to be true
historically up until now.

There will be a time when we will no longer be able to

fit more processors onto a single silicon chip.

Even Gordon Moore has questioned how long the cycle

of innovation and production can keep up the frenzied
pace of the last four decades.

When will Moore’s Law be Dead?

But it's difficult to pin down when that might happen

We could hit a technical barrier that prevents

engineers from finding a way to make smaller
components
But even if we don't encounter a technical barrier,
economics could come into the equation. If it's not
economically feasible to produce circuits with smaller
transistors there may be no reason to pursue further
development. Each new node shrink increases the
technology development cost in a fairly predictable way
by about 40%. The result is that Moore's Law is limited
by economics.
The problem with predicting a specific date when one
or more of these barriers will stop progress is that we
have to base it on what we know today. But every day
engineers are learning new ways to design, build and
produce circuits. What we know tomorrow may make
the things that seem impossible today completely
achievable.
Figure 7: Miniaturization of the digital functions (“More Moore”)
and functional diversification (“More-than-Moore”).
The second trend “More-than-Moore” (MtM) is
characterized by non-digital functionalities do
contribute to the miniaturization of electronic systems;
this. “More-than-Moore” technologies do not
constitute an alternative or even competitor to the
digital trend as described by Moore’s Law. In fact, it is
the heterogeneous integration of digital and non-
digital functionalities into compact systems. “More-
than-Moore” refers to its capabilities to interact with
the outside world and the users.

More Moore and More than Moore:

The CMOS transistor is the basic building block for logic

devices (e.g. MPU), which – along with storage
components. The present progress in both process
technology and design is enhancing the compatibility
of CMOS and non-digital technologies, which enables
the migration of non-digital components from the PCB Figure 8: “More-than-Moore” devices complement the digital
processing and storage elements of an integrated system.
into the chip itself.
Figure 3 illustrates this architecture using the imager
The International Technology Roadmap for
example: combination of both More Moore (image
Semiconductors has emphasized in its early editions
signal processing) and More than Moore (image
the “miniaturization”. The trend for increased
sensor, through silicon via) technologies.
performances will continue, sustained by the
incorporation into devices of new materials, and the
 Figure 9: 3D integration of a “More-than-Moore” photodetector
with “More Moore” read- out and digital signal processing ICs
(courtesy of Piet de Moor, IMEC) Figure 10: The virtuous circle which made the success of the digital
microelectronic industry should be extended to include the
Since it is expected that the relative weight of the contribution of “More-than-Moore” technologies (Adapted from
“More-than-Moore” component in the industry Prof. Tsu-Jae King-Liu, UC Berkeley)
evolution will increase over time, a new “virtuous cycle”
must be established to relay the industry expansion,
many innovations, at the system, technology, device
and circuit levels.

Our perception on the Future:

Engineers and researchers have managed to 5. Quantum Computers: This has promise to be
keep Moore’s law at pace. Through development of the greatest leap in computational power ever.
Transistor design to device architecture improvement Contrary to traditional digital computers where
also by means of new substances and techniques ICs bits are used, and can be either 0 or 1. QTs use
have been getting faster and more powerful. q-bits as data, this enables QTs to run multiple
tasks at once and at very high speeds as well.
Regarding the future, we can see, new form of
computing circuits replacing our traditional silicon-
based ones, also known as Von Neumann Architecture.
Given below are some concepts that can change the
future of computing.

1. Optical Computing: traditional electronics is

based on Silicon transistor to make logic gates
that form the base of computation. Optical
gates use photons instead of electrons to
transmit data, thus is much faster.
2. Graphene Transistors: Graphene has much
better electric properties than Silicon. But is
currently very expensive and hard to bulk
produce
3. Molecular Transistors: 1 single molecule of
benzine can be used to make a transistor, but
this has not been scalable yet.
4. Neuromorphic Computers: This architecture is
inspired by Neurons and how they operate in
sync. This is a more efficient architecture than
Von Neumann’s one.