South China Sea

Stakeholders

China, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and USA

Points of Contention

 Sovereignty over Islands and Sea

 Economic benefits from Fisheries, Minerals and Trade

 Hegemony and Freedom of Navigation

 Artificial Islands and Militarization of region

 Interpretation of International Law

Historical Background

Eleven-dash Line of Chiang Kai-shek (1947)

Nine Dash Line of Zhou Enlai (1949)

Chinese occupation of Paracel Islands from Vietnam (1974)

Discovery of oil and gas in the seabed in 1976

Timeline of Events

May 2009: The deadline for states to make seabed hydrocarbon claims

2011: Start of Chinese restriction Filipino and Vietnamese fishing and mineral extraction

2015: Start of Chinese construction of artificial islands

27 October 2015: Launch of Freedom of Navigation Operation by United States (Latest

operation is conducted by USS McCain in August 2017)

12 July 2016: Rejection of China’s Nine-dash line claims by Permanent Court of Arbitration

October 2016: Reconciliation of Filipino President Duterte towards China

April 2017: Cancelation of visit by Filipino President Duterte of a disputed Island (Thitu Island)

in South China Sea after warning from China

August 2017: Framework for a code of conduct in the South China Sea was decided at ASEAN

summit

November 2017: Philippines stopped construction work on a newly formed sandbar which was

started in August 2017 in the disputed South China Sea after China protested.

Nov. 12, 2017: President Donald Trump offered to mediate in the South China Sea disputes.

Nov. 12, 2017: Without mentioning China, in US-Vietnamese joint statement it called on

regional states to avoid “escalatory actions, the militarization of disputed features, and

unlawful restrictions on freedom of the seas.”

Nov. 13, 2017: China and Vietnam released a joint statement saying that they would work

together to maintain "peace and stability" in the South China Sea

10–16 November 2017: ASEAN and China announced at ASEAN Summit that they would

implement the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), which states

that any parties with claims to areas in the South China Sea should maintain peaceful
coexistence and should govern the area based on international law. But the code would not be

legally binding.

Impacts on Asia-Pacific and World

Trump’s nationalist policies may seem indifferent of American allies to South East Asia but

Secretary of State Tillerson and Secretary of Defence Mattis are concerned about rising Chinese

clout in the region. But Chinese are successfully using the diversion of North Korea and keeping

their ASEAN opponents divided. During ASEAN Summit (2017), Trump courted Vietnam to ward

off Beijing in South China Sea. In US-Vietnamese joint statement, freedom of the seas and code

of conduct according to international law was underscored. But Chinese countered that by

compelling Vietnamese statement that China and Vietnam would work together for peace and

stability. China also scored victory by acquiring approval of ASEAN countries on Declaration of

Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) which would not be legally binding. China is

buying time by these measures as it has not halted work on artificial islands.

China is using its economic leverage as it is largest trading partner of ASEAN and its fourth-

largest external source of foreign direct investment. Tourism is important sector in many ASEAN

economies. China is important for those markets as 19.8 million Chinese tourists vacationed last

year in ASEAN countries.

Iran Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)

Stakeholders
Iran, P5+1 (USA, China, UK, France, Russia and Germany), EU, Israel, Saudi Arabia and her Gulf

allies

Points of Contention

 Iranian Nuclear program (Ballistic Missile after enforcement of treaty)

 Alleged Iranian interference in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain and Yemen

 Hawkish rhetoric by Trump

 Hostility of Israel and Saudi Arabia towards Iran

Historical Background

1970s: Under the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, plans are made to construct up to

20 nuclear power stations across the country with U.S. support

1974: Start construction of Bushehr power plant

1985: Iran said that it should develop nuclear weapons to counter the Israeli nuclear threat

December 2002: United States accuses Iran of attempting to make nuclear weapons.

June 16, 2003: International Atomic Energy Agency, declares that "Iran failed to report certain

nuclear materials and activities”.

2006-2008: United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835

Nuclear Deal and Opposition

16 June 2015: In speech announcing his candidacy for president, Trump suggested that a deal

with Iran regarding nuclear weapons could destroy Israel. He condemned the deal throughout

his election campaign

14 July 2015: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran, P5+1 and the European Union

in Vienna. Deal was condemned by Israel and Saudi Arabia

20 July 2015: United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231

October 2015- January 2017: Iranian missile tests (in violation of 2010 United Nations Security

Council Resolution 1929)

13 October 2017: Trump on refused to certify that Tehran was complying with the accord. U.S.

Congress has until mid-December to decide whether to reimpose sanctions lifted by the deal.

9 November 2017: French President Emmanuel Macron blamed Iran for a ballistic missile

launch by Yemeni rebels targeting Riyadh. Macron underlined the need of negotiation on a

framework for Iran’s ballistic activities

10 November 2017: EU Foreign Policy Chief Mogherini said EU will preserve Iran Nuclear Deal

and hinted that US Congress will also comply with the deal

10 November 2017: IAEA verified the reduced nuclear activities of Iran and gained supported of

US envoy to UN Nikki Haley

Impacts on Middle East and the World

European Union and world community would preserve the deal notwithstanding American

resistance. Saudi Arabia would try it best to damage the deal to isolate Iran. If USA backs out of

deal, it would damage American standing in global diplomacy especially it would curtail its

power to negotiate a peaceful solution to North Korea Nuclear crisis.

Qatar Crisis

Stakeholders

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Egypt, USA, Turkey and Iran

Points of Contention

 Alleged Qatari support of extremist and fundamentalist organizations

 Qatari close relations with Iran and Turkey

 Converge of Bahraini and Egyptian crackdown of democratic movements by Qatari

Network Aljazeera

 Economic diversification in Gulf region and perceived Qatari threat (growing soft power,

booming LNG industry) to Saudi dominance of the region

Background

Saudi-Iran rivalry and aspirations of Qatar of becoming a regional power

Timeline of Events

5 June 2017: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Egypt, the Maldives, and Bahrain all separately

announced that they were cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar

22 June 2017: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain issued Qatar a

list of 13 demands through Kuwait

5 July 2017: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain asked Qatar to

accept six broad principles, which includes commitments to combat terrorism, extremism, to

end acts of provocation, and incitement

24 August 2017: Qatar announced restoration of full diplomatic relations with Iran

26 November 2017: Trade agreement was signed to increase commercial ties and the

movement of goods between Turkey, Iran and Qatar

4 December 2017: GCC meeting ended abruptly after Saudi Arabia and UAE formed new

alliance outside GCC

2 April 2018: the Wall Street Journal reported that a firm established in Israel was contracted

by the UAE to lobby the US government against Qatar.

11 April 2018: Officials said Trump is interested in restoring unity among Gulf Arab states and

present a united front against Iran.

Impacts on Middle East and World

Saudi Arabia cannot reconcile with Qatar as it would lose face in the region. USA, under

President Trump known for his brinkmanship, is highly unlikely to resolve the issue. Iran and

Turkey are happy with spilt in Sunni Arab world as it would give them more leverage in the
region. Qatar would suffer from blockade but not like Yemen as her economy is strong and she

got powerful allies.

Yemen Crisis

Stakeholders

Yemen, Saudi Arabia and GCC, Iran and USA

Points of Contention

 Houthi takeover of Sana’a

 Saudi-Iran rivalry

 Saudi Strikes, blockade and subsequent humanitarian crisis

Background

Houthi struggle against Sunni rulers supported by Saudi Arabia, North-South divide in Yemen

Timeline of Events

21 September 2014: Houthi takeover of Sana’a

26 March 2015: Start of Saudi Strikes

6 June 2015: First Houthi missile attack in Saudi Arabia, these attacks continued

September 2015: President Hadi returned to Aden after its recapture by Saudi-backed

government forces
June-November 2017: of cholera kills 2,100 and affects almost 900,000 others, medical

agencies say.

1 July 2017: UN declared for Yemen a level-three (highest UN emergency level) emergency

4 November 2017: Houthi ballistic missile attack at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and called

the attack ‘an act of war’

6 November 2017: Land, air and sea blockade by Saudi-alliance after ballistic missile attack

4 December 2017: Ali Abdullah Salih was killed by Houthis after reconciliation attempt to Saudi

Arabia coalition

5 April 2018: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres reported that the Yemen

crisis had become the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Approximately three quarters

(equivalent to over 22 million) of Yemen's population were in dire need of humanitarian

assistance and protection.

18 April 2018: Yemeni forces have targeted an airport in Saudi Arabia with a domestically-

manufactured ballistic missile

APRIL 24, 2018: The international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders

(MSF) condemn airstrikes after receiving 63 wounded in a hospital it supports in Hajjah, Yemen,

following a series of nighttime airstrikes by the Saudi and Emirati-led coalition on a wedding

party in a remote, impoverished village in Bani Qays district on April 22.

4 May 2018: United Arab Emirates (UAE) forces have occupied sea and airports on Yemen's

remote island of Socotra

Impacts on Middle East and World

End of bombardment and blockade by Saudi-alliance and cessation of Iranian support to

Houthis are not likely. Yemen would continue to suffer from blockade and warfare. USA has

thrown its weight behind Saudi Arabia due to hostility towards Iran. UN has restricted itself to

condemnation of blockade and carnage.

Ukraine Issue

Stakeholders

Ukraine, Russia, EU and USA

Points of Contention

 Proximity of Ukraine to EU and NATO

 Russian annexation of Crimea

 Insurgency of Russian minority in Eastern Ukraine

 American and European sanctions on Russia

Background

Russian ethnic minorities in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine and Russian suspicion towards EU and

NATO

Timeline of Events
21 November 2013: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych suspended talks for political and

trade deal with the European Union in the face of opposition from Russia. Protests started in

reaction

20 February 2014: Violence between protesters and police in Maidan (Independence) Square,

Kiev

22 February 2014: Yanukovych fled Kiev

March 2014: Referendum and Russian annexation of Crimea

15 April 2014: Kiev's government launches its first formal military action against the pro-

Russian rebels who have seized government buildings in towns and cities across eastern

Ukraine.

27 June 2014: Poroshenko signs the EU Association Agreement 

17 July 2014: 298 people are killed when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 is shot down by a surface-

to-air missile above rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine

20 September 2014: Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists agree to a complete ceasefire by

Minsk Agreement

11 February 2015: After failure of Minsk Agreement, Minsk II was signed

22 June 2015: European Union foreign ministers extend sanctions against Russia

UN Resolution on Peacekeeping in Donbass region

Impacts on Europe and World

Buoyed by annexation of Crimea, Russia would not settle anything less than the division of

Ukraine. Alarmed by Russian expansion, EU has not been able to take any concrete measure to

ensure territorial integrity of Ukraine. Peace in Ukraine is not a priority of Trump’s America. Like

Syria and Yemen, Ukraine would also have to bear the brunt of bloodshed and violence.

Recent Developments in Palestine Issue

Stakeholders

Palestinian Authority (PA), Hamas, Israel, USA, Egypt and other members of Arab League

USA: She supports Two-States solution but biased towards Palestinian cause especially Hamas.

Trump announced that USA can recognize Jerusalem as capital and can forgo Two-States

solution

Egypt: Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel in 1978.

Syria: The Syrian government is still quite hostile to Israel. Syria is aligned with Iran, Israel's

greatest adversary in the region today.

Lebanon: Lebanon is home to Hezbollah, a virulently anti-Israel Shia Islamist group funded by

Iran.

Jordan: Israel's eastern neighbor both has a peace treaty with Israel and houses the largest

concentration of Palestinians refugees.

Iran: The Iranian government believes Israel is fundamentally illegitimate and supports the

most hard-line anti-Israeli Arab factions. Israel sees Iran's nuclear program as a direct and

existential threat, and Iran has provided significant military and financial backing to Hezbollah,

Hamas, and Syria, the "Axis of Resistance" to Israeli and Western interests in the Middle East.

Turkey: Long on good terms with Israel, Turkey has become increasingly pro-Palestinian in

recent years. President Erdogan has positioned himself as a champion of the Palestinian

cause for ideological, domestic, and geopolitical reasons. Israeli-Turkish conflict over an Israeli

raid on a Turkish aid mission to Gaza severed diplomatic relations between the two countries,

and relations still have not been formally normalized.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel but the two nations' mutual hostility

toward Iran has built a working relationship between the Saudi and Israeli governments.

Aspects:

Control of Territory

Palestinian right to establish a states

Recognition of Israeli Right to Exist

Right of Return for Palestinian refugees

Use of water and natural resources

Current Points of Contention

 Control of Gaza
  Jewish encroachments in Jerusalem especially in Haram Al-Sharif

 Military activities of Hamas

 Expansion of Israeli Settlements

Background

2006: Hamas won elections, Hamas-PLO spilt

2007-onging: Gaza blockade by Egypt and Israel followed by three Israeli Invasions of Gaza in

2008, 2012 and 2014

Timeline of Events

1 October 2015: Start of Knife Intifada

15 July 2017: Israel announced the additional security measures in al-Aqsa which were lifted

after rejection by Palestinians

12 October 2017: Egypt-brokered reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas. Refusal

of Israel to accept the agreement

1 November 2017: Hamas Hands Over Rafah crossing to the Palestinian Authority. Even though

Hamas expressed its willingness to put its military wing under PA but it is reluctant to cede

security control. The Palestinian factions are due to meet in Cairo on November 21 to discuss

the issue.

27 November 2017: Hamas vowed it won't disarm and threatened military expansion against

Israel in West Bank

8 December 2017: USA recognized Jerusalem as Israeli capital. A wave of protests spread from

the Middle East to the rest of the world in the days following President Trump's

announcement. 

13 December 2017: An extraordinary summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

condemned Trump’s decision on Jerusalem.

17 December 2017: Arab League (AL) formed a ministerial delegation tasked with responding to

the U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital

18 Dec 2017: United States vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution, calling Trump to rescind

his declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel

30 March 2018: Start of massacres at Gaza

28 Apr 2018: Palestinian National Council, the legislative body of the Palestinian Liberation

Organization (PLO) is set to discuss suspending the recognition of Israel, in addition to several

other critical issues of Palestinian politics.

30 April 2018: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told heads of US-based Jewish

groups that the Palestinian leadership must accept conditions for peace put forward by the

administration of US President Donald Trump or shut up

Solution

Arab-Israel agreement
Cast aside the concept of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement in favor of an Israeli-Arab agreement

as the only way to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC) must be partners to the agreement.

Gradual Development to Two-State Solution

The two-state solution is the end objective, but achieving this goal is unrealistic in the near

future. Third, the only realistic goal at this juncture is to create interim arrangements to set the

ground for a final agreement.

Involvement of All Stakeholders

Palestinian National Authority (PNA)-Jordan-Egypt-GCC team, formally authorized by the parties

involved to negotiate with Israel on all aspects of arrangements, as well as the final agreement.

Agreements must formally be approved by the parties involved, including the UN General

Assembly and Security Council.

Stability in Gaza

PNA must first restore its control over the Gaza Strip. Both West Bank and Gaza should be

administrated by one party which would take democratic majority. GCC military forces should

deploy in the Gaza Strip together with PNA forces, and Hamas’ military force should be merged

within the formal PNA force. A port shall be created in the Gaza Strip and the Rafah crossing

shall be opened.

Once stability is obtained in the Gaza Strip, negotiations regarding the final Israeli-Arab

agreement should begin. The negotiations should address all relevant issues (borders, refugees,
Jerusalem, settlements, land and natural resources use, etc.). The plan also addresses the core

challenges that perpetuate the vicious cycle of violence and conflict that confront Israelis and

Palestinians.

Most important issue for Israel

Security is the most important issue to Israel. Due to the increasing threat to Israeli civilians

posed by Hamas and other militant Islamist Palestinian groups, Israelis do not trust Palestinians

and are thus unwilling to make any concessions that will further compromise Israel's security.

The involvement of Arab states as reliable counterparts will strengthen Israeli willingness to

compromise if they have reason to believe that a stable and enduring agreement is achievable.

On the Palestinian side, a lack of internal consensus remains challenging—especially the

ideological and political gaps between the two major Palestinian camps, Hamas and Fatah. As a

result, Palestinians are unable to make inevitable compromises.

Hamas' extreme ideology holds all sides hostage. Ironically, its extremism also holds Hamas

itself hostage. Hamas desperately needs a ladder that enables it to adopt a more pragmatic

approach that will allow it to compromise its control in Gaza without formally compromising its

ideology. The involvement of proactive Arab states will provide that crucial ladder.

Put aside the concept of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement

Arab involvement will also enable Palestinians to exit the Cul-de-Sac by broadening the

consensus base; Palestinians can digest compromises on issues that are at the core of a
Palestinian narrative (primarily the Palestinian narrative known as the right of return, that is

totally unacceptable to Israel) if this is done within a larger Arab consensus framework.

Hopelessness and endless conflict can be replaced by a peaceful future, but only if we act

differently. We must put aside the concept of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement in favor of an

Israeli-Arab agreement as the only realistic means to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Such

agreement is achievable today more than ever before.

Saudi-Iran Rivalry

Stakeholders

Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Russia and

USA

Points of Contention

 Iranian Nuclear program (Ballistic Missiles after enforcement of treaty)

 Alleged Iranian interference in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain and Yemen

 Iranian proxies of Hezbollah, Houthis and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria

 Hostility of Israel and Saudi Arabia towards Iran

Background

Ideological differences, Yemen Crisis, 2015 Hajj stampede

Timeline of Events

2 January 2016: execution of Nimr al-Nimr and burning of Saudi Embassy in Tehran
3 January 2016: End of Diplomatic ties of Saudi Arabia with Iran

4 November 2017: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned. The situation was seen as a

power play by Saudi Arabia to increase its influence in Lebanon and counterbalance Iran's

victories in Iraq and Syria

 Many Developments related to Syrian Civil War, Yemen Crisis and Qatar Crisis are also

part of Saudi-Iran rivalry as two countries are major actors in these issues

Impacts on Middle East and World

Saudi Arabia cannot make peace with Iran as it has invested its prestige in the conflict. USA will

support Saudi Arabia and Russia, while claiming to be neutral, will continue its tacit support of

Iran. Qatar, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon would suffer from the rivalry of two giants as Saudi

Arabia and Iran would continue to control and use their proxies in afore-mentioned countries.

After Yemen and Syria, rivalry of two giants as Saudi Arabia and Iran could push Lebanon into

vicious circle of bloodshed as it could ruin delicate balance of power which fragile Lebanese

society has maintained after 25 years of civil war between different ethnic and religious groups.

Turkey’s growing ties with Iran show there is disagreement with the Saudis. Prince Salman is

even willing to cooperate with Israel and Egypt to encircle Iran. These Saudi diplomatic efforts

have acted to reduce Turkey’s influence.

For more than 15 years, President Erdogan has sought to build ties with the Saudis in an effort

to expand his country’s influence in the Middle East. But the overthrow of Egypt’s President

Mohamed Morsi in July of 2013 weakened those efforts. Morsi had been a close ally of
Erdogan. Many in Turkey blame the Saudi government for supporting the Egyptian military’s

move to seize power. Morsi is currently in jail serving a life sentence for supporting violence

against protesters opposed to his presidency.Turkey and Saudi Arabia now compete in some

cases for influence in Middle East issues.

But, Turkey also has strong economic ties to Saudi Arabia.The Saudis are big investors in Turkey

and are the top foreign buyer of homes in the country. Saudi economic links also reduce

Turkey’s dependence on Europe for foreign investment.

Syrian Civil War

Stakeholders

Syria, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, USA

Points of Contention

 Dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad

 Shia-Sunni rivalry

 Interference of USA, Russia, Turkey and Iran

 Islamic extremism with IS as its worst form

 Refugee problem

 Kurd autonomy

 Non-states actors like Hezbollah, YPG (People's Protection Units) and other militias

Background
Baathist Rule from 1963, Arab Spring (2011)

Timeline of Events

29 July 2011: formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)

June 2013: Syrian opposition factions declared war on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

August 2013: Use Chemical of Weapons starting from Ghouta attack in the suburbs

of Damascus which continued during the conflict. In response of Khan Shaykhun chemical

attack in April 2017, United States launched its first attack against Syrian government force

23 September 2014: American jets began bombing ISIL in Syria

 January 2016: ISIL defeated in Kobani, Kurds started to consolidate their power in northern

Syria

30 September 2015: Start of Russian Intervention

24 November 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane

17 March 2016: Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM) created by Democratic Union

Party (PYD) and People's Protection Units (YPG) declared the establishment of a federal system

of government as the Democratic Federation of Rojava in northern Syria

December 2016, Syrian government forces captured Aleppo

23 February 2017: Peace conference in Geneva was held

4 May 2017, Russia, Iran, and Turkey signed an agreement in Astana to create four "de-

escalation zones" in Syria.

17 October 2017: Raqqa was liberated from Islamic State

October 2017: Start of Idlib Offensive

November 2017, the government forces and allied militia established full control over Deir ez-

Zor. Assad regime announced victory over IS.

22 November 2017: Presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey met in Sochi to discuss Syrian peace

23 November 2017: Decision of Syrian Opposition in Saudi Arabia to send a united delegation

to Geneva Peace Conference and removal of Assad

25 November 2017: Turkey's foreign minister said that President Trump committed to Turkish

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the United States would no longer supply arms to Syrian

Kurdish fighters. U.S. military in May began providing the Kurds with equipment and weapons

to aid in the SDF fight against ISIS after Trump signed off on the plan to help retake the Syrian

city of Raqqa.

27 November 2017: US Defense Department said it is reviewing the process it uses to provide

equipment and weapons to Kurdish fighters with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) but has

not halted sending weapons.

January 2018: Creation of New Constitution was decided in Sochi Peace Conference

20 January 2018: Start of Turkish Offensive on Afrin

February 2018: Escalation of Offensive on Eastern Ghouta

10 February 2018: Syrian air defences shot down an Israeli F-16 fighter jet in response to a

cross border raid conducted by Israel on Iranian targets near Damascus through Lebanese

airspace

21 February 2018: Syrian government forces entered in Afrin to support Kurds against Turkish

offensive

18 March 2018: TFSA and Turkish military captured the entirety of the Afrin Canton from

Kurdish forces

7 April 2018: A chemical attack was reported in the city of Douma, with 70 people killed

14 April 2018: the United States, United Kingdom, and France launched missile strikes on

multiple government targets in Syria as a response to the suspected chemical attack in Douma

14 April 2018: The entire Eastern Ghouta was brought under government control and the near

7-year rebellion near Damascus was effectively ended.

Apr 26, 2018: 10m Syrians at risk of forfeiting homes under new property law

April 9 and April 29 2018: The two latest airstrikes attributed to Israel in Syria

5 May 2018: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said Friday that its team of

investigators has finished a fact-finding mission in the Syrian town of Douma

CPEC (One Belt, One Road) and Regional Powers

Stakeholder

China, Pakistan, India, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, Japan, Central Asian Republics and USA

Points of Contention

 For US, OBOR will change in the strategic balance of power of new trade routes and

markets.

 India’s stance on CPEC is that it passes through disputed territories

 Afghanistan would be a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) unless it is

given access to India via Wagah and Attari border

 For Iran, CPEC will provide the country with much needed accessibility to the east.

 Russia’s approach to CPEC is asymmetrical, using target sectors to compete with China

where possible. Pakistan has publicly stated Russia can use Gwadar for exports. But

Russia has a noticeably better relationship with Tehran than Beijing, so she can use

Chabahar as well.

 Japan is set to propose a strategic dialogue with India, the United States and Australia to

build ports and high-speed road networks across Asia to Africa, a plan aimed at

countering China’s cross-continent “Belt and Road” plan

 Central Asian Republics are keen to join CPEC for access to Gwadar

Background

USA, India and Japan are historically averse to Chinese influence in the world in general and in

the region of Asia-Pacific in particular. Government of Afghanistan is aligned with India to reap
political and economic benefits. Iran is providing India with access to Afghanistan by bypassing

Pakistan.

Timeline of Events

19 September 2017: India, Japan and USA voice concerns over OBOR at ministerial meeting

4 October 2017: US Secretary of Defence Mattis said China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),

saying it passes through a "disputed territory" and no country should "put itself into a position

of dictating 

25 October 2017: Afghan President Ghani said that he would not join CPEC if Islamabad refused

to permit connectivity between India and Afghanistan

November 2017: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the idea of the trade route

alternative to Chinese “Belt and Road” plan to US President Donald Trump in his visit to Japan

12 November 2017: With the opening of Chabahar Port, Afghanistan will no longer be

dependent on Karachi Port

North Korea Nuclear Crisis

Stakeholders

North Korea, USA, China, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia

Points of Contention

 Nuclear program of North Korea

  Tacit Russian and Chinese support of North Korea

 Chinese trade relations with North Korea

Historical Background

Division of Korea (1945), Korean War (1950-53), North Korean nuclear aspiration

Timeline of Events

1985 - North Korea signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP), after U.S. spy satellites

detect possible construction of a nuclear weapons program. The Soviet Union pressures

North Korea to make the deal.

1992 - North Korea signs on to an agreement to allow International Atomic Energy Agency

(IAEA) inspectors review its facilities.

1993 - The U.S. begins talks with North Korea, after North Korea refuses access to inspectors

from the International Atomic Energy Agency and begins the process of withdrawing from

the NTP. As a result of the talks, North Korea backs out of its decision to withdraw from the

NTP, and its agreement to allow IAEA inspections, according to the Arms Control

Association. 

April 1994 - Bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea resume after former President

Jimmy Carter visits North Korea's capital, Pyongyang.

October 1994 - Despite the death of North Korean leader Kim Il Sung in July, the U.S. and

North Korea sign an agreement in October under which North Korea agrees to freeze
operations at its nuclear facilities and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. In exchange for

the program's dismantling, the U.S. agrees to arrange for North Korea to get two light water

reactor nuclear power plants and heavy fuel oil, according to a 2016 Congressional Research

Service report. 

April 1998 - The U.S. imposes sanctions on North Korea in response to North Korea's

transfer of missile technology to a laboratory in Pakistan, according to the Arms Control

Association. 

October 1998 - In talks in New York, North Korea rejects the U.S. proposal to terminate its

missile program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

2000 - The U.S. has several talks with North Korea, ending without any significant

agreements. The U.S. rejects one proposal from North Korea to give it $1 billion per year in

return for halting missile exports.

2001 - The U.S. imposes sanctions on North Korea's Changgwang Sinyong Corporation for

violating terms of the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000. 

2002 - The George W. Bush administration confronts North Korea about a suspected

uranium enrichment program, which the North Koreans deny. But those new concerns

prompt the suspension of the shipments of heavy fuel oil and construction of the light

water reactors. North Korea expels IAEA inspectors from its facilities.
2003 - In January, North Korea officially withdraws from the NTP. The "Six-Party Talks," talks

that expand beyond the U.S. and North Korea to include China, South Korea, Japan and

Russia, begin. 

2005 - As a result of the Six-Party Talks, North Korea agrees in a joint statement to abandon

its nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid, a guarantee of U.S. security and talks

about normalizing relations with the U.S. But the U.S. later freezes North Korean assets in a

bank in Macau on suspicion of illicit activity, breaking down the abandonment process.

2006 - North Korea tests long-range missiles, prompting a United Nations Security Council

to issue a resolution to suspend North Korea's nuclear program. That doesn't work either,

as North Korea says it's tested its first successful nuclear weapon. The U.N. Security Council

imposes new sanctions on North Korea. 

2007 - North Korea again agrees to dismantle its nuclear weapons facilities at Six-Party talks

in September, but misses the deadline to destroy all of its nuclear weapons facilities by the

end of the year. 

2008 - The Six-Party Talks break down after North Korea refuses to allow international

inspectors into its facilities.

2009 - The U.N. Security Council imposes new sanctions after North Korea announces it

conducted a second successful nuclear test in May.

2011 - U.S. officials meet with a North Korea delegation in Switzerland in efforts to pick up

talks from 2008.

2012 - The State Department says North Korea has agreed to halt long-range missile

launches and activity in the country's major nuclear facility in exchange for food aid. 

2013 - The U.N. imposes additional sanctions after North Korea conducts its third nuclear

test -- the first test under current leader Kim Jong Un. 

2016 - In March, then-President Barack Obama issues an executive order imposes further

economic sanctions on North Korea, in response to missile launches and a nuclear test

earlier in January. 

November 2016 - UN Security Council further tightens sanctions by aiming to cut one of

North Korea's main exports, coal, by 60 per cent.

January 2017 - Kim Jong-un says North Korea is in the final stages of developing long-range

guided missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

July 2017 - Pyongyang test fires a long-range missile into the Sea of Japan, with some

experts stating the missile could potentially reach Alaska.

August 2017 - Tension rises in war of words with US over North Korean threat to fire

ballistic missiles near US Pacific territory of Guam.

China announces it plans to implement the UN sanctions against North Korea agreed earlier

in the month, banning imports of coal, minerals and sea food.

January 2018 - First talks in two years between North and South Koreas begin thaw that

leads to the North sending a team to the Winter Olympics in the South.
 March 2018 - The United States and North Korea announce that their leaders plan to meet

before June to discuss nuclear disarmament on the Korean peninsula.

April 2018 - Kim Jong-un becomes first North Korean leader to enter the South when he

meets South Korean President Moon Jae-in for talks at the Panmunjom border crossing.

They agree to end hostile actions and work towards reducing nuclear arms on the

peninsula.

Rohingya Crisis

Stakeholders

Myanmar, Bangladesh, China, India, USA and UN

Points of Contention

 Origin of Rohingya people

 Citizenship Status of Rohingya

 Crackdown of Rohingya by Myanmar

Historical Background

Rohingya are inhabitants of the region of Arakan/Rakhine since 5th Century. Discrimination

against Rohingya started after the 1962 Burmese coup d'état. In 1982, regime of General Ne

Win enacted the Burmese nationality law by which Rohingya were not recognized the as one of

the eight national ethnic groups and Rohingya were also stripped of the citizenship rights.

Crackdown against Rohingyas in 1991–1992. More than 250,000 Rohingya refugees flee what
they said was forced labour, rape and religious persecution at the hands of the Myanmar army

in Rakhine. Rangoon is forced to cut another deal with the UNHCR and agree to take the

refugees back. Between 1992-2004, about 230,000 Rohingya are voluntarily repatriated to

Myanmar under the auspices of the United Nations.

Timeline of Events

2012: riots in Rakhine state between Rohingya Muslims and ethnic Rakhines over alleged rape

of a Rakhine woman by Rohingya men

2012-2014: Over million people have fled on boats between June 2012 and April 2014

2016: Major crackdown on the Rohingya in Rakhine State in late 2016 with help of extremist

Buddhists

October 2016: Three Burmese border posts along Myanmar's border with Bangladesh were

attacked. Government officials in Rakhine State originally blamed Arakan Rohingya Salvation

Army (ARSA) for the attacks

October 2017: More than 600,000 Rohingya refugees have arrived in Bangladesh after fleeing

violence in Myanmar since August 25

24 Oct 2017: Myanmar and Bangladesh on Tuesday agreed to negotiate on repatriation of

Rohingya, security and border cooperation

06 Nov 2017: UN Security Council demanded end of violence in Myanmar and called on

Myanmar to cooperate with the United Nations and encourages UN secretary-general Antonio

Guterres to appoint a special advisor on the crisis.

14 Nov 2017: U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for probe of atrocities against Rohingya

22 Nov 2017: U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Myanmar crackdown of Rohingya

‘ethnic cleansing’

23 Nov 2017: Myanmar and Bangladesh agreed on repatriation of Rohingya within three

months

18 Dec 2017: According to Human Rights Watch, satellite images show that Villages were still

being damaged as late as 2 December, contradicting government assurances

9 April 2018: ICC prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda listed the well-documented mistreatment of

Rohingya and cited the UN special envoy for human rights who described it as bearing the

“hallmarks of genocide”

10 April 2018: Myanmar soldiers jailed for 10 years over massacre of Rohingya

15 April 2018: Myanmar has accepted what appears to be the first five among some 700,000

Rohingya Muslim refugees

29 April 2018: Members of the UN security council have expressed dismay at the

“overwhelming” suffering they encountered in the refugee camps in Bangladesh

5 May 2018: OIC will act strong to resolve crisis. After visiting refugee camps; 45th session of

the OIC foreign ministers' meet begins in Dhaka on 6 May.

Future

India is silent on persecution of Rohingya because it is competing Chinese influence in

Myanmar. Myanmar is key stakeholder in initiative of OBOR. Therefore China cannot afford to

alienate Myanmar. United States in condemning the persecution of Rohingya but Trump

administration is unlikely to take concrete measures to stop the atrocities. UN is constantly

demanding end of violence but it is not likely in face of Chinese opposition.

Catalonia crisis
Introduction

Catalan declaration of independence has created greatest constitutional crisis in Spain since fall

of France regime in 1975. There are fears that the crisis can escalate into ethnic conflict on line

of Balkan crisis of 1990s.

Historical Background

 Establishment of Barcelona was as a buffer zone between Frankish Empire and Muslim

Spain in 9th Century

 Became a part of the Kingdom of Aragon under Berenguer IV (1131-1162)

 Establishment of Kingdom of Spain Ferdinand I of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile

in 1469

 Revival of Catalan culture and language in 19th century due to industrialisation

  Catalonia was given limited self-government in 1913

 Spain becomes a republic in 1931 in which an autonomous Catalan regional government

was created

 Leading role of Catalonia against nationalists during Spanish Civil War (1936-39)

 Catalan regional government was abolished in 1939

 Suppression during era of Franco (1939-1975)

 Revival of regional government in Catalonia in 1977

 Statute of Catalonia with increased powers

 Resentment against Spain after Economic Crisis of 2008-09

Causes of Referendum

 Distinct Catalan national, cultural and linguistic Identity

 Brutal suppression by Gen. Franco (1939-75)

 Catalans blame Madrid for economic problems and consider that GDP of Catalonia is

spent by Spanish government without consultation of Catalan people

Series of Events

2014: Majority vote for independence in Non-binding independence referendum

2015: Regional Government of pro-independence Puigdemont

9 June 2017: Puigdemont announced plan for Independence Referendum on 1 October 2017

7 September 2017: Suspension of independence referendum by Spain's Constitutional Court

1 October 2017: Independence Referendum was held, 90% of voters backed independence

3 October 2017: Huge protests in Spain including Catalonia against referendum and King Felipe

VI condemned referendum

10 October 2017: Puigdemont announced acceptance of Referendum results but he refrained

from formal declaration of independence

11 October 2017: Spanish Prime Minister Mario Rajoy set a deadline of 16 October for the

Catalan government to clarify whether they had declared independence or not

21 October 2017: Spanish government suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and said it would

impose direct rule from 28 October

26 October 2017: Catalan president of government Carles Puigdemont opted against declaring

independence himself and says he will leave the decision to MPs. He also declared that Central

government did not give guarantees for snap elections

27 October 2017: Catalan parliament unilaterally declared independence by 70 votes to 10, in a

vote boycotted by the opposition. Spain’s senate approved new powers for the Madrid

government to impose direct rule on Catalonia by 214 votes to 47

28 October 2017: Suspension of regional government of Catalonia by Spain as Article 155 was

invoked. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy declared that new elections will be held in the region on

December 21.and announcement of regional elections in 21 December 2017

30 October 2017: Spain's chief prosecutor announced charges including rebellion to be brought

against Catalan leaders

31 October 2017: Carles Puigdemont and members of his cabinet fled to Belgium to seek

asylum or set up government in exile

3 November 2017: A Spanish judge has issued European Arrest Warrants (EAW) for sacked

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont and four of his allies who went to Belgium

5 November 2017: Puigdemont and the four other cabinet members turned themselves in to

Belgian authorities which released them on the same day on condition that they would not

leave Belgium without prior consent.

8 November 2017: Pro-independence demonstrators blocked traffic in many parts of

Catalonia adding more chaos in beleaguered region.

8 November 2017: Offer of constitutional referendum to dissident communities by Spanish

Foreign Minister

9 November 2017: Speaker of the Catalan parliament has been granted bail after telling a judge

that declaration of independence was only symbolic and promising to respect the Spanish

constitution in the future.

10 November 2017: EU President Juncker condemned Catalonian declaration of Independence

21 December 2017: Separatist won Catalan local elections

30 Jan 2018: Presidential elections postponed Constitutional Court banned the election of

Puigdemont under current circumstances

1 March 2018: Carles Puigdemont has abandoned his attempt to return to office

23 March 2018: Crowds of protesters in Spain's Catalonia region have clashed with police after

the Supreme Court stepped up legal action against separatists

March 25: Puigdemont was detained by German authorities

April 7, 2018: Carles Puigdemont was released from a German jail

Impacts on European Union and on the World

European Union is strongly opposed to Catalan independence as it is still reeling from Brexit.

There are separatist movements across Europe which can be encouraged by Catalan

independence. Therefore, countries like United Kingdom, France and Italy has condemned

unilateral Catalan declaration of independence as they face challenge of independence and

autonomy from Scotland, Corsica and Lombardy and Veneto region respectively. United States

also opposed Catalan independence. Most of international actors declared that issue is a

Spanish “internal” matter. But they urged for a peaceful resolution to the stand-off. The Council

of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) also condemned Spanish police violence during the

referendum. Russia which has championed the independence cause of ethnic minorities in

Ukraine and Georgia is diplomatically silent on Catalan independence but EU cyber team hinted
on Russian role in Catalonia independence bid with her media outlets. United Nations has

called for resolution of constitutional crisis by legal means.

Future

With neither side seeming prepared to back down, speculation on the future of the region

continues. Catalans are not willing to submit into fold of Spain and Spanish are adamant to

keep their state united. Catalonia is no longer autonomous is view of Spain. But Catalans

believe that Spain cannot use law against Catalonia as it is no longer a bound by Spanish law. It

only can use force against Catalonia. If crisis would not be solve by legal means and negotiation,

it can flare up like Yugoslavia in which secession of Slovenia started a chain reaction of violence.

It is reported that Catalan would set up government in exile to evade charges of rebellion. This

actions would complicate thing even more

Basque country is next in line for independence from Spain. Spain should bestow greater

autonomy to dissatisfied regions particularly in financial and economic matters to integrate

them with rest of the country. Catalonia also should show restrain as changing the global map is

not is child’s play.

Kurd Independence Referendum 2017

Introduction

Kurd independence referendum has increased the fissures in already divided Iraqi society.

There are speculations that the crisis can add into mix of violence beleaguered region of Middle
East. Iraqi government and Kurds have been allies in war against Islamic State but Kurd

Question has put this alliance in jeopardy.

Historical Background

 Marwanid Dynasty (990–1096) of Diyarbakır, First example of Kurd self-rule

 Ayyubite (1171–1250) dynasty of Syria, founded by Saladin

 Repression under Safavids and Ottomans till 20th Century

 Rise of Kurd nationalism in era of Tanzimat (1839-76) and Young Turk Movement (1908-

1920)

 Treaty of Sèvres (1920) proposed an autonomous homeland for the Kurds after WW I

 Treaty of Sèvres (1920) was replaced by Treaty of Lausanne (1923) which divided Kurd

homeland between Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey

 Kurd uprising against Turkey (1925), Iran (1946) and Iraq (1961) which were suppressed

 Iraqi–Kurdish Autonomy Agreement of 1970 granted Kurds limited self-rule

 KDP (Kurdistan Workers Party) uprising on question of Kirkuk in 1974 which was

suppressed

 Split between Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in

1975

 al-Anfal campaign (1988) against the Kurds for their alleged support of Iran during

the Iran-Iraq war

 Kurd uprising during First Gulf War (1990-91)

 Creation of a "safe haven" for Kurd on the Iraqi side of the border
  Second First Gulf War (2003) and greater autonomy of Kurd autonomous region under

American and Iraqi administrations but continuous conflict on Kirkuk

 Non-formal Independence referendum (2005) with 98% of vote for independence

 Turkish attacks on KPK inside Iraqi Kurdistan (2006-2011)

Causes of Referendum

 Distinct Kurd national, cultural and linguistic Identity

 Division of petro-economic benefits

 Repressive policies of Iraqi dictators especially Saddam Hussain

 Kurd success in defeating Islamic State and creating autonomous region in Syria

 Turk suppression of Kurds

 Consolidation of economic and governance advantages won by Kurds in 2014-2015

Series of Events

July 2014: President Barzani announced plans for an independence referendum

August 2014: After rise of Islamic State in Kurd areas of Iraq and Syria in 2014, retaliation of

Kurd paramilitary force Peshmerga started

September 2014: Kurdish leaders agreed to put independence referendum on hold as fighting

Islamic State was the top priority

December 2014: Iraqi government and Kurdish leadership signed a deal on sharing Iraq's oil

wealth and military resources

November 2015: Recapture of Sinjar town from IS by Peshmerga forces

December 2015: Approval of allocation of Kurdistan Region's 17 per cent share of the national

budget by Iraqi parliament

June 2017: President Barzani announced to hold an independence referendum on 25

September

16 July 2017: Mosul is liberated from Islamic State

17 October 2017: Raqqa is liberated from Islamic State

25 September 2017: 93% of vote for independence in Independence referendum

20 October 2017: Iraqi Kurdistan lost Kirkuk to military forces sent by Baghdad

29 October 2017: President Barzani announced resignation

Impacts on Middle East and on the World

Iraqi army is dominated by Shia militias which are supported by Iran. Kurd independence is

anathema to Iran which has its own Kurd minority to suppress. Therefore, Abadi is leaning

towards Iran in to help resolve Kurdish problem. United States wants to counter Iranian

influence in Iraq. So US secretary of state Rex Tillerson has declared both the referendum and

its result illegitimate to be in good books of Baghdad even though American have toyed with

idea of Independent Kurdistan in past.

The prime opponent of Kurd independence is Turkish president Tayyip Erdoğan. Due to lose of

power in 2015 by opposition of Kurd party, Erdoğan has developed a personal grudge against
the Kurdish populations of south-east Turkey, northern Iraq and northern Syria. He vowed to

block trade of the landlocked Kurds with vital oil exports. Russian Vladimir Putin who had

supported Middle Eastern minorities like Alawites and Yazidis agreed with Erdoğan during his

visit to Ankara that the Kurds must be discouraged from making more “mistakes”. Russian oil

companies have become leading investors in Kurdistan and Putin will want to protect their

interests. But for him, the bigger priority is longer-term influence in Iraq and Syria, where

American incompetence has created openings for an expansionist Moscow. Bashar al-Assad

have used Kurds for dividing its opponents but as any other Middle Eastern dictator which

created career out of persecution of minorities, Assad is hostile of Kurd independence.

United Nations has disappointed Kurds in past by its failure to stop genocidal campaigns of

Saddam Hussain. Therefore, it is not expected that United Nations can play a role in resolving

the crisis as it can in Catalonia crisis. Powerful Salafi Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia are not

concerned with independence Kurds who strongly believe in Sufism but Saudi coalition can use

Kurds as leverage against Iran and its Syrian and Iraqi allies. Only voice of support of Kurd

independence has come from Israel which would be damaging rather than helpful for Kurd

cause as it would play perfectly for rhetoric of Independent Kurdistan as Zionist Agenda by

propagandists of Turkey, Syria and Iran.

Future

Kurds has been fighting for independence from almost a century, longer than any existent

independence movement in the world. So it is unlikely that they would withdraw from their
demand. But in face of opposition from Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran which are supported by

United States and Russia, Kurd independence seems elusive.

Proposed Scot Independence Referendum 2019

Introduction

Brexit has left British society and government in uncertainty. In addition to that, prospect of

Scot Independence added fuel to fire. Scot chose to remain in UK in referendum of 2014 due to

Historical Background

 Scots led by William Wallace and Robert the Bruce successfully fought off English

invasion (1296-1328)

 Under Scot King James VI, unification of England, Ireland and Scotland (1603)

 Treaty of the Union created United Kingdom of Great Britain (1707)

 British repression of Jacobite uprising (1715-46)

 Scottish National Party (SNP) is founded (1934)

 SNP gains first seat in parliament at Westminster (1945)

 Failure of referendum on Scottish devolution (1979)

 Introduction of the Poll Tax by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government helped

revive the independence movement (1989)

 Referendum showed overwhelming support for a separate Scottish Parliament with tax-

raising powers (1997)

 Devolution of powers to a Scottish Parliament by Scottish Act (1998)

  Elections for first Scottish Parliament (1999)

Causes of Referendum

 Distinct Scot national, cultural and linguistic Identity

 Division of economic benefits

 Repressive policies of Thatcher

Series of Events

October 2012: Edinburgh Agreement was signed by Salmond and British Prime Minister David

Cameron paving the way for a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014

November 2013: Scottish government published “Scotland’s Future” making the case for

independence

18 September 2014: Referendum for independence

23 June 2016: Referendum on Brexit on 23 June 2016 with victory of Leave by 51.9% to 48.1%

but Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%

24 June 2016: First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that it was "democratically unacceptable" that

Scotland faced being taken out of the EU when it voted to Remain

March 2017: Sturgeon's formal request for second Scottish independence referendum was

rejected by Theresa May

Impacts on European Union and on the World

Independence of Scotland would rejuvenate movement of unification of Ireland as Northern

Ireland also vote to remain in EU and with Republic of Ireland in EU, their Irish brethren would

have a strong justification for merger of their fatherland. Unlike, Catalan or Kurd referendum,

Scot referendum is recognized by British law. Therefore, independent Scotland would not face

opposition from international community.

Future

Success or failure of Brexit would have significant impact on Scottish bid for independence. If

Brexit would succeed, it may prove an incentive for Scots to remain in United Kingdom.

However, in case of failure of Brexit, Scots will be impelled for independence. Teresa May have

declined the request of Second independence referendum but she did not rule it out. She

stressed that independence referendum should be held in 2019 after the completion of Brexit.