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Bii 18bigtechpredictions h2 2020
Bii 18bigtechpredictions h2 2020
1. Banks in the US will close 3% of branches in 2020, up from the less than 2% that closed 01
in 2019.
2. UK neobank Starling, which rolled out a quick but efficient coronavirus response, will 03
more than double its total number of business clients by the end of the year compared
with February.
3. Low Fed rates will make high-yield savings accounts untenable, so digital banks that use 04
them for customer acquisition will have to find other incentives.
1. More than 80% of Fortune 500 companies will expand their employee-monitoring 07
capabilities in 2020 to contend with shifts in the workplace.
2. Video conferencing service providers that emphasize social interactions will gain a 08
competitive edge as enterprises look for centralized platforms that can fully support their
employees’ communication, collaboration, and productivity needs.
3. The second half of 2020 will signal a breakthrough for automation technology, with 10
coronavirus-driven deployments persisting regardless of how the pandemic plays out.
1. Digital therapeutics (DTx) and telehealth firms seeing success now — namely Livongo 13
and Teladoc — will see spikes in membership and revenue through the end of 2020.
2. The Big Four tech giants have been influential players in combating the coronavirus, and 15
we think these efforts will add a layer of validity to their expanding health plays, hauling
them — specifically Amazon and Microsoft — toward the forefront of healthcare.
3. We think telemental health startups will ride out the pandemic-induced recession and 17
retain payer and investor interest through the end of 2020.
1. Digital video will become a fixture of TV ad campaigns as advertisers shift more spend 19
into connected-TV (CTV) and OTT buys to make up for the diminishing reach and
inflexibility of linear TV.
2. E-commerce channel advertising will become a higher priority for brands as shifting 22
consumer behavior brings a larger share of spending online.
3. By the end of 2020, social media marketers will need to prioritize spending on TikTok — it 23
will no longer be enough to view it as an experimental channel.
1. Global fintech funding for 2020 will stand between $21.7 billion and $24.1 billion 26
depending on the severity of the pandemic, down from $34.5 billion last year.
2. Direct written premiums (DWPs) for usage-based auto insurtechs Metromile and Root 28
in the US and Zego in the UK will grow at a stronger rate in 2020 compared with 2019,
propelled by the shortcomings of traditional auto insurance laid bare by the lockdown.
3. A number of alt lenders, particularly in the peer-to-peer (P2P) space, will fold, while others 30
will drive consolidation — and RateSetter will be one of the first to be scooped up.
1. Amazon will have several deals in the works by the end of 2020 to acquire stores from 33
bankrupt and struggling retailers so it can offer same-day omnichannel fulfillment.
2. Most ultra-premium issuers will add nontravel rewards as a stopgap amid the coronavirus 35
pandemic, but customers will demand they remain even as the pandemic recedes.
3. Although consumers are looking to limit face-to-face contact during the pandemic, 37
autonomous checkout providers will miss out on the opportunity to rapidly gain adoption
for their solutions this year due to technical limitations.
Source: Business Insider Intelligence estimates, AltFi, Finextra, Fintech Finance, 2020
Methodology: Business Insider Intelligence used third-party data to estimate and forecast the number of business accounts
Copyright © 2020, Insider Inc. All rights reserved 3
3.
Low Fed rates will make high-yield savings
accounts untenable, so digital banks that use
them for customer acquisition will have to find
other incentives.
The US Federal Reserve has slashed its Here are the three most important
interest rate target to near zero as part of incentives we think digital banks could use
its emergency response to the coronavirus to drive new signups in lieu of high-yield
pandemic. That has created an environment savings accounts:
in which high-yield savings accounts are a
The best offering digital banks could put
detriment to profitability for banks, and led
forward would be enhanced overdraft
providers to make big cuts to their rates
protections.
versus last year (Goldman's Marcus offering,
for example, slid from 2.15% last July to Big US banks took in a titanic $11.7 billion
1.05% currently). in overdraft fees in 2019, so offering
customers a bigger cushion before applying
these fees would likely drive significant
interest, especially among consumers who
As the rates borne by high-yield were hit hard by the economic fallout of
savings accounts become less the coronavirus pandemic. This is a double-
and less enticing, we expect those edged sword for banks — which will be
shrinking a significant revenue source —
accounts will drive less interest among but the combination of better customer
prospective customers, and banks acquisition prospects and heightened
that offer them will have to find other loyalty from grateful existing customers,
incentives to reel in new clients. with the added benefit of goodwill from
regulators that will likely be cracking down
on customer abuses during pandemic
recovery, may make it worth the hit to the
bottom line.
The first half of 2020 saw video better strategies to ensure their companies
conferencing services become central to are making the most effective choices in
enterprises’ strategies for navigating the their platforms and more than half (54%)
disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. of respondents were beginning or in the
These services were at the top of global process of reviewing their platforms with an
IT decision-makers’ lists for planned tech eye toward consolidation.
investment as a result of the pandemic,
As enterprises begin to consolidate their
according to a March survey from S&P
communication and collaboration platforms
Global Market Intelligence. We expect that
throughout the remainder of the year, we
as companies look for avenues to cut costs
think that video conferencing platforms
and enhance productivity while working
that encourage social interaction and
remotely during the remainder of the year —
help maintain workplace culture and
especially among the many employers now
rapport while remote will have an edge.
embracing remote work accommodations
Loneliness was most frequently cited (tied
that will extend beyond the pandemic
with collaboration and communication) by
— they will or have already accelerated
remote workers worldwide as their biggest
plans to review their services with a mind
struggle with working remotely, according to
toward consolidation. A fall 2019 survey
a survey conducted by Buffer and AngelList
of senior executives from Forbes Insights
in early 2020 — issues that almost certainly
and Zoom found that nearly two-thirds
have been exacerbated by the coronavirus
(64%) of respondents believed they need
pandemic.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, “The Voice of the Enterprise: Digital Pulse, Coronavirus Flash survey,” n=662 global IT
decision-makers, March 2020
Copyright © 2020, Insider Inc. All rights reserved 9
3.
The second half of 2020 will signal a
breakthrough for automation technology, with
coronavirus-driven deployments persisting
regardless of how the pandemic plays out.
Telemental health firms have witnessed For context, the pandemic has dramatically
unprecedented growth since the start of worsened mental health in the US: One-
the year: third of US individuals now exhibit signs of
clinical anxiety or depression — which has
• Digital mental health firms raised a high doubled since previous years, according
of $576 million in funding in Q1 2020 –– to the Census Bureau. Payers have been
superseding Q1 2019’s record by more reacting to a heightened need for mental
than 60%. health services by ensuring their members
• Virtual mental health firm Mindstrong can access behavioral services digitally. Less
bagged $100 million in May, while mental than one month ago, health insurance giant
health benefits startup Lyra health Cigna struck a deal with behavioral therapy
secured $75 million in new funding. startup Talkspace to allow members access
to its digital therapy services; private insurer
• And downloads of mental health apps hit Aetna partnered with mental well-being app
4 million over the course of April alone — Wysa; and Kaiser Permanente partnered
up 29% from 3.1 million in January. with Livongo to offer its virtual behavioral
health therapy services in April. The US is
bracing for a mental health crisis that will
likely outlast the pandemic, and as the surge
Telemental health firms have been in demand for digital mental health services
continues, we don’t expect the pattern of
nabbing tie-ups with insurers seeking
private insurers leveraging partnerships
to boost access to mental health with digital mental health startups to slow
services — and we think payers down. We think payers will eye tie-ups with
will keep pursuing these alliances, telemental health firms that are attracting
especially with players like Mindstrong investor attention, in particular: For example,
that are attracting significant investor virtual mental health startup Mindstrong’s
funding haul in May could signify it’s ready
attention.
to provide a host of services to private
insurance members.
As cord-cutting hits record highs in the US, While we expect TV ad dollars to rebound in
and likely worsens in the second half of the second half of the year, broader market
2020, advertisers will face an even steeper uncertainty will continue to drive advertisers
imperative to make up for lost reach on TV. to seek greater flexibility in their ad buys. TV
That shift in video ad budgets is likely to is not a medium that typically affords this
carry into 2021, given that the decline of flexibility, given that most inventory is sold
traditional TV is unlikely to reverse, while through relatively rigid upfront commitments
usage on ad-supported OTT like YouTube, — and TV upfront sales are suffering as a
Hulu, CBS All Access, and Peacock grows. result.
Upfront spending for the 2020-21 TV
year is estimated to drop to $14.78 billion,
Outside of TV’s diminishing reach, a down from its previous estimate of $21.64
significant driver of this shift is a desire billion, according to an eMarketer forecast
updated in June. On the other hand, CTV
for greater targetability and flexibility in and OTT advertising is typically transacted
ad spending due to pandemic-driven programmatically, meaning ads can be
uncertainty. bought or pulled on short notice.
Methodology: Survey was fielded during May 1-5, 2020. Among respondents, 34% were marketers, and 66% were agency
professionals. 74% of total respondents were involved in programmatic advertising using demand-side platforms (DSPs). All
(100%) of respondents were involved in media planning decisions. Respondents came from marketer and agency contacts from
the Advertiser Perceptions Ad Pros proprietary community, which represents the brands and agencies that are spending the
most on advertising and marketing in the US.
14.5%
Prior to the pandemic, major retailers like
Walmart, Target, and eBay were developing
their own digital ad business, following in
of total retail sales in 2020,
the footsteps of Amazon, the largest player
according to eMarketer’s in the e-commerce channel advertising
revised estimates — an all-time space. For context, e-commerce channel
high, and the biggest ever share advertising refers to ad placements made
increase in a single year. on e-commerce sites (Amazon, eBay) or
retail ad networks (Walmart, Target). The
pandemic has motivated greater investment
And this uplift will likely permanently alter into the development of these marketplaces,
how both consumers and businesses with new players like Instacart and CVS
approach shopping habits post-pandemic. launching their own ad platforms. This
In fact, about two-thirds (66%) of US SMB emphasis has been in response to resilient
owners expect to increase their reliance demand from advertisers for placements on
on e-commerce after the pandemic, such platforms despite a general pullback in
according to an April PYMNTS survey cited advertising: For example, while ad giants like
by eMarketer. Meanwhile, many consumers Google and Facebook revised down their
expect to continue newly developed ad revenue projections in Q1 2020, Amazon
e-commerce habits: For example, 45% of US reported that its ad business’s growth rate of
adults said they intend to continue with 40% was consistent with what it saw in
Q4 2019.
TikTok's US user base has exploded during And TikTok has not only expanded its
the pandemic, in part due to an influx of US user base, but also significantly
comparatively older users. TikTok not only deepened user engagement with the
added 12 million US users in March alone app.
— bringing it up to 52.2 million total US
users, per Comscore — but also recently
expanded its popularity beyond its Gen Z In March, US users ages 2+ spent
sweet spot. an average of 476 minutes total
on TikTok's app, website, and
mobile website, per Comscore —
In the US, the share of TikTok
a 10.8% uptick from
visitors ages 25-34 grew by 5
January 2020.
percentage points from January to
April, and visitors ages 35-44 grew
by just over 3 percentage points Even more impressively, TikTok isn't just
over the same time frame. topping its own engagement records,
it's beating out rival platforms too: For
example, on average US users spent a
Meanwhile, users ages 18-24 shrank by total of 383.5 minutes on Snapchat in
almost 6 percentage points, although they March, 319.5 minutes on Instagram, 92.4
still make up the plurality of the app's user minutes on Twitter, and just 7.6 minutes
base at 35%. The increased presence on Pinterest. In terms of average time
of millennial and Gen X users will further spent per US user, TikTok trailed only
broaden TikTok's appeal to marketers, at Facebook (563.8 minutes) in March
least in part because these users are likely 2020.
to have comparatively more immediate
purchasing power than younger users.
Notes: *ages 2+, includes desktop, mobile website and app, **ages 18+, includes mobile app only
Source: Comscore Media Matrix Multi-Platform, April 17, 2020
TikTok has already been making strides And TikTok has moved to further capitalize
to expand its ad offerings as it looks to on that advertiser demand: Since late April,
effectively monetize its ever-growing user TikTok built out AR effects, partnered with
base. adtech firm Sprinklr to open up its ad API
for the first time, and developed features
to help advertisers partner with its growing
As a result, certain TikTok ad creator base. While TikTok's ad options are
prices jumped by as much as 50% predominantly platform-wide as of now,
quarter-over-quarter from Q4 2019 moves like its Sprinklr partnership — which
to Q1 2020, per Adweek. features a targeting component that allows
marketers to tailor their ad creative in real
time based on anything from social media
conversations to the weather — foreshadow
that the company is working to enable ad
targeting on par with incumbent social
platforms.
The pandemic has made investors more Fintech funding in Asia, and especially
cautious when it comes to making new China, will bounce back the fastest, while
investments, as the global economic emerging hubs like South America will lose
downturn strains fintechs’ operations and out on capital injections for longer.
their chances of future success. If the
Asia’s fintech funding recovery will be
pandemic follows a moderate course and
driven by its high fintech adoption rates
subsides in Q3 — with nonessential shops
and its position in a later stage of overall
reopening, and workers returning to their
crisis recovery. In Q1 2020, funding for Asia-
jobs:
based fintechs, which is largely driven by
China, dropped 69% quarter-over-quarter,
We predict that funding will dip marking the steepest drop across major
30% from 2019, though fintechs fintech markets, per CB Insights, likely as
globally will still be able to raise the outbreak hit China first and was most
prominent there throughout the first quarter
$24.1 billion this year.
of the year. However, now China is further
ahead in terms of resuming operations
With many economies already making than Europe and the US, which could
moves to exit lockdown, we think a boost investor confidence in fintechs in the
moderate scenario is likely to occur. country. Additionally, China continues to be a
However, if the pandemic turns out to be big market for fintech and boasts the highest
more severe and lockdown measures can’t fintech adoption globally at 87%, which
be lifted by Q3 or are reinstated, fintech increases the likelihood of uptake for China-
funding will take a much bigger hit this year, based fintechs and should heighten investor
dropping by 37%, and we expect fintechs to interest in those startups.
only raise $21.7 billion.
Note: Excluding Ant Financial’s $14 billion funding round in Q2 2019. The moderate case assumes that the pandemic subsides
during Q3. The severe case assumes that the present situation persists through the end of the year, until a vaccine is found
Source: Business Insider Intelligence, 2020; CB Insights, 2020
Methodology: Business Insider Intelligence considered third-party data and historical data to forecast fintech funding.
35% 51%
The economic downturn is causing a rise in its retail investor customers requested early
delinquencies and risk of defaults, making access to their funds, while Ratesetter also
both retail and business borrowers riskier experienced a spike in investor withdrawal
to lend to, thus making it more difficult for requests.
alt lenders to extend credit. This has been
exacerbated by the lack or slow process of
alt lender accreditation to SMB government The ensuing shortage of loan
support schemes — the Coronavirus supply is shrinking revenue — with
Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) P2P marketplace LendingClub
in the UK and the Paycheck Protection reporting a net loss of $48.1
Plan (PPP) in the US, respectively — which
million for Q1 2020 compared
limits the ability of alt lenders to continue
serving their customers via those schemes. with $19.9 million in Q1 2019 —
In addition, the significant drop in fintech and leading some P2P lenders to
funding earlier this year is also limiting their explore M&A options.
cash runway. As a result, we expect some
smaller lenders with limited resources will
fold — and larger players will look for buyers, Although market uncertainty could make it
thereby increasing M&A activity. difficult to find prospective buyers, we think
The struggle is particularly acute for UK-based P2P lender RateSetter will be
P2P lenders, as they rely on continuous among the first to be scooped up in 2020,
investor interest in lending to borrowers as it is among the biggest players in the
rather than issuing loans themselves, country and has taken steps to mitigate the
and many investors are now looking for downturn, such as reducing lending and
safer investment options. For example, launching a provision fund to buffer investors
LendingClub recently reported that 6% of against missing payments.
Note: This segment includes product sales where Amazon’s customers physically select items in a store and not online orders
placed for delivery or pickup at stores
Source: Amazon, 2020
Methodology: These figures are from Amazon’s Q1 2020 earnings release, published on April 30, 2020.
Over the past several years, as debt To make the most of their portfolios for
exceeded pre-2008 highs, issuers the year, issuers focused on travel rewards
scrambled to attract customers and will have to innovate. After several years of
earn primary card status. To do so, many decline, credit cards’ return on assets (ROA)
leveraged high-cost, high-value cards often was expected to tick up in 2020 before
focused on travel and entertainment (T&E) the pandemic, marking a turning point for
spending, like Chase Sapphire Reserve issuers, per Mercator. Issuers will need to
and Amex Platinum, which have become rethink rewards offerings to come close
extremely popular. But T&E spending has to that growth — and those changes will
plummeted nearly 100% annually during the likely outlast the immediate crisis and could
pandemic, with the worst impact in April, reshape the picture of a top-tier rewards
per Amex and Discover, which could sink card.
usage of these cards. And high annual fees
• Several issuers have retooled rewards to
could turn off customers who are struggling
better match current spending patterns
financially, in turn hindering new customer
— and we expect more to follow suit
acquisition and retention.
this year as the pandemic stretches
on. American Express has added new
Contact us and a member of our team will reach out with more information about an Enterprise membership.
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