To: Mayor Weinberger & the City Council

From: Brian Lowe, David White, and members of the City’s COVID-19 Analytics Team
Date: September 10, 2020
RE: Recommendation to the City Council Regarding Group Size and Alcohol Service

This memo provides a recommendation to the City Council regarding the current group size and
alcohol service limitations put in place August 20, 2020. At that time, the Council planned to re-
evaluate these limitations at its September 14, 2020 meeting.

As detailed in the memo, these limitations should be understood as part of a broader set of
interventions put in place by the City to reduce both the probability and velocity of coronavirus
transmission in Burlington as students return and our local school system begins to re-open. This
memo also provides a variety of relevant data indicators Councilors may want to consider in
making their evaluation of these measures, as well as a range of community feedback on the
measures.

Based on the information described above, we recommend the Council extend the current
interventions and to re-evaluate the need for them at your October 5, 2020 meeting.

Group Size and Alcohol Service Hours in Context

The recent reductions in group size and alcohol service hours the Mayor advocated for and the
Council supported on August 20, 2020 are two of many interventions the City has taken since the
start of the pandemic. The Mayor’s original memo (attached in your packet) notes that these two
interventions are part of “three inter-related efforts that have made us successful to this point: (1)
strong and evolving public health regulations, (2) good coordination between government agencies
and key institutions, and (3) outstanding vigilance and compliance with public health orders by the
people of Burlington and Vermont.” These efforts have put Burlington and Vermont in a place were
low prevalence creates an opportunity to reasonably consider re-opening our local school district,
as well as the University of Vermont (UVM) and Champlain College (Champlain).

Group size and alcohol service hour changes are also part of a wider system of interventions and
based on observation & evaluation of actions in other communities beyond Burlington. In addition
to these two interventions, the City also requested an increase in the number of Department of
Liquor & Lottery (formerly the Department of Liquor Control) agents enforcing the Governor’s
orders in the downtown, implemented wastewater surveillance testing across the City, extended
the successful and unique “Supportive Quarantine” program, clarified that both UVM and
Champlain had a 24-hour test result turnaround time, negotiated increased penalties for missed
tests and other infractions (both UVM and Champlain have committed to suspend students for two
missed tests), and established a working group whose members are in near-daily communication
identifying issues and sharing information, among other interventions.

Further, these two particular interventions – reducing the allowed group size to 25 outdoors in
certain settings and 10 to 15 indoors and curtailing alcohol service at 11pm – were proactive
measures designed to reduce the overall probability and velocity of transmission as graduate and
undergraduate students returned to the community in substantial numbers, immediately prior to
the restart of our school district. There is a great deal of evidence, including from other college
towns, of large parties becoming “super-spreading events” that significantly increase coronavirus
risk in a community. These two interventions modestly reduce that probability and make
enforcement of the Governor’s orders more clear-cut when it comes to large parties.
As the Mayor noted in his original memo, the current low prevalence of the coronavirus in the
community – secured at great cost to many of our community members and local businesses –
creates the opportunity to restart our local school district. Much depends on this reopening, and
this is a critical time to keep local virus prevalence low and ensure the safe restart of school.

Consideration of Intervention Extension or Removal

The City’s COVID-19 Analytics Team has evaluated best practices, observed the experience and
choices of other communities impacted by the coronavirus earlier than Vermont, tracked evolving
research, and made recommendations to City leadership on a variety of decisions. The team
identified several of the interventions listed above, provided the original memo (attached in your
Council packet) describing the rationale for the interventions initially, and has helped evaluate this
particular decision of whether to continue or curtail the two interventions in question.

This section outlines some of the measures this group considered since the Council’s action on
August 20, 2020, identifies where data relevant to a decision is lacking, highlights feedback to date
from UVM, Champlain, and community feedback via the City’s Business Support Office, and
examines relevant historical data regarding the advisability of continuing these two interventions.
Additional data and context is available on the City’s interactive dashboard, https://coronavirus-
response-burlingtonvt.hub.arcgis.com/pages/impacts.

Local Indicators of Interest Value

1. Chittenden County 7-day average: 1 new case (as of

Case Growth 9/8)

2. Percent positivity 7-day average: .04 percent

positive (as of 9/8)

3. # positives at UVM 16 confirmed cases total since

and Champlain August 7

4. Church Street 6548 unique visitors 8/31/19

Marketplace Visitors
1946 unique visitors 8/31/20

More than 30 percent loss in

unique visits each month

5. Georgia Tech Group 3 – 5 percent chance of COVID-

Size and Risk 19 positive individual in a group
Indicator of 25 people

The City does not have a complete data picture of the impact of these specific interventions.
A very short period of time has elapsed since August 20, and so data gathered to date are not
sufficient to support a definitive answer as to the precise impact of these interventions (as noted
below, for example, no other community has attempted to evaluate similar interventions on such a
short timeline). One party involving far more than 25 people was broken up during this time; how
many made plans to involve less people given the new, lower group size limit is unknowable.
However, we do know that thousands of residents have recently returned to Burlington from across
the country and that the Burlington School District began classes on September 8, 2020, two major
changes in our community.

UVM and Champlain have been unified in their support of these interventions continuing.
Representatives from both institutions have expressed appreciation to the City for proactively
taking these efforts, and while they cannot draw a causal connection between these interventions
and behavior changes on and off-campus, they believe these interventions are part of a system that
to date has limited the number of alcohol-related or group size infractions. Both institutions have
also implemented extensive testing regimes for on and off-campus students and are leading major
efforts around masking and other behavior modifications necessitated by the pandemic.

The City’s Business Support Office has fielded a surprising number of calls of support –
alongside some calls of frustration – from business owners. Those dissatisfied are generally
representing businesses that have been hit hard by the pandemic, primarily dependent on alcohol
sales, and frustrated by an additional revenue loss, however modest. Other business owners, not
directly impacted by these regulations have expressed support, as have a number of bar owners
(who prefer not to be named publicly). There is a concern among some business owners, including
retail and restaurants, that future poor behavior in bars could undermine the limited growth in
confidence and economic activity over the past several months.

Relevant historical data – in the form of noise complaints and expenditures for what were
previously termed noise patrols – indicates that loud, often outdoor, off-campus activity
continues in general through Halloween but drops precipitously by November. For example,
noise patrol expenditures exceed $10,000 per month from August – October, but are less than
$2,000 by November. Similarly, noise complaints to the City peak in late August and remain
elevated until Halloween.

Other jurisdictions that implemented similar measures have in general elected to continue
them thru September at least. Many of these areas also start their academic year prior to the
beginning of the semester at Champlain College and UVM. As of 9/8, none of the jurisdictions below
have altered their gathering limits.

County or Locality Institution Indoor Outdoor

Orange Co, NC UNC Chapel Hill 10 25
Washtenaw Co, MI University of Michigan 10 100
Boulder Co, CO CU-Boulder 10 25+
State College, PA Penn State University 10 in residential setting 25 in public parks
Local order
Tolland Co, CT University of 10* 20*
(*proposed, state limit Connecticut
is 25 & 100
respectively)
Monroe Co, IN Indiana University 50 private/ non- 150 outdoor est.
commercial gatherings
Clarke Co, GA University of Georgia 50

Thank you.