Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

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Solar Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/solener

Energetic, economic and environmental (3E) analyses and LCOE estimation T

of three technologies of PV grid-connected systems under different climates
⁎
A. Allouhia, , R. Saadanib, M.S. Bukerc, T. Kousksoud, A. Jamila, M. Rahmouneb
a
Ecole Supérieure de Technologie de Fès, U.S.M.B.A, Route d’Imouzzer, BP 242 Fez, Morocco
b
École Supérieure de Technologie de Meknès, Université Moulay Ismail, Km 5, Rue d’Agouray, Meknès 50040, B.P: 3103, Toulal, Morocco
c
Department of Aeronautical Engineering, Konya NEU University, Konya, Turkey
d
Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Ingénieur Appliquées à la Mécanique et au Génie Electrique (SIAME), Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour – IFR – A. Jules Ferry, 64000
Pau, France

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Recently, solar energy is considered as the most promising renewable energy source, due to the availability and
Grid-connected PV advancement of the solar technologies. This paper presents an extensive energy, economic and environmental
Performance analysis of 2.04 kWp of polycrystalline (p-Si), 2.04 kWp of monocrystalline (m-Si) and 1.86 kWp of amorphous on
Economic analysis microcrystalline (a-Si/μc-Si) identical PV systems installed on the rooftop of 20 different institutional buildings,
Environmental impact
located in various Moroccan sites. Based on the analysis conducted, annual results are predicted with respect to
hourly meteorological data and performance characteristics of each technology are examined using energetic,
economic and environmental indexes (3E analysis). Daily simulation results were compared with actual recorded
data for one of the geographical site (Meknes city) and good matching between simulated and recorded data has
been achieved to prove its validity. The energetic analysis has shown that poly-Si modules surpassed the mono-Si
and amorphous-Si modules in terms of performance, capacity factor and conversion efficiency. Besides, eco-
nomic analysis has been conducted to determine the discounted payback period and levelized cost of electricity
(LCOE) for 20 Moroccan cities and the results have shown that p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si offered the 20-city
average of 17.1, 21.6 and 28.6 years payback period, respectively. Moreover, LCOE has been determined for
each city and the results reveal that p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si types PV modules presented the average of 9.02,
10.13 and 12.53 cent€/kWh, respectively. Finally, the environmental analysis has revealed that average of
1.316, 1.286 and 1.051 tons of CO2 per kWp can be reduced by adopting the p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si PV modules
in the studied locations. The findings confirm the potential of the examined technologies and elucidate specific
conclusions for the practice of such systems under Morocco’s climate.

1. Introduction has increased since 1997 at an average annual rate of 1.92%

1.1. Background
Developing countries are currently facing great challenges related to
energy supply and environment protection. Morocco, one of the largest
energy importers in MENA region, has recently been making concerted
efforts to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuel. The current
energy strategy in Morocco aims at facing the huge rises in power de-
mands. In fact, primary energy consumption and electricity demand is
growing by nearly 6% and 7% per year since 2002 and the country
depends almost entirely on external energy supply with a dependency
rate of over 93%.
From an environmental point of view, the amount of GHG emissions
(KNOEMA). Although GHG level is considered low, in comparison to
worldwide values, it is anticipated to increase sharply in the next years,
as a result of accelerated increase in the power generation and buildings
sectors (Kousksou et al., 2015). Shifting to renewable energy can fa-
cilitate achieving the dual goals of reduction in greenhouse gas emis-
sions, thereby ensuring the environmental protection and sustainability
in secured energy supply (Squalli, 2017; Amponsah et al., 2014;
Ellabban et al., 2014). Current energy policies put the development of
renewable energy sources as a fundamental action plan to cope with the
immediate hike in energy demands expected in the coming decades. In
this framework, solar photovoltaic conversion is one the most pro-
mising options to generate clean electricity (Bye et al., 2018; García-
Álvarez et al., 2018; Buker and Riffat, 2015).

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: allouhiamine@gmail.com (A. Allouhi).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.11.060
Received 21 July 2018; Received in revised form 3 November 2018; Accepted 25 November 2018
Available online 08 December 2018
0038-092X/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. Allouhi et al.
The modularity of PV systems allows electricity generation from
solar energy over a wide power range (Sick, 2014). Recently, the cu-
mulative implemented capacity has augmented considerably at an
average rate of 40% annually (BP). At the end of 2017, new installa-
tions totaling more than 97 GW took global solar PV power generation
capacity to nearly 400 GW (Jäger-Waldau, 2017). As of today, the in-
stalled capacity of PV systems along with the planned 104 GW in 2018
is estimated to surpass 500 GW globally (GREENTECHMEDIA). Steady
cost decline, performance improvements and market-driven deploy-
ment of solar energy technologies worldwide can partly explain this
noticeable progress (Singh, 2013).
PV technologies can be sorted from the most prominent to least
prominent in the market as crystalline silicon (m-Si and p-Si), thin
films, multi-junction cells and concentrating PV (CPV). In 2017, ac-
cording to Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer
Institute for Solar Energy Systems, 2018), silicon PV modules maintain
the highest portion among the commercialized technologies with a
market share of 95%. On the other hand, all thin film technologies
make only 5% of the total annual production.
Continuous development and considerable technology progress has
significantly contributed PV’s success as PV efficiency has been con-
tinually improved and manufacturing cost has been significantly re-
duced, reported to be one fifth over the last decade (IEA, 2014; Luo
et al., 2017).
PV systems can be classified into grid connected and standalone
systems based on their operational and functional requirements. The
main priority of grid-connected systems is to meet energy requirements
and any excess will be injected into the electrical network, and in the
case of there is shortage, electricity is extracted from the grid. The grid
acts as a storage system with an unlimited capacity. Grid-connected PV
systems start to be erected at all scales and in various zones in the
world, principally in countries where legislative frameworks are in
hand-to-hand with such options. On the other hand, stand-alone PV
systems produce power independently and are more suitable for remote
locations where there is no or limited access to the electricity, grid
cannot penetrate and there is no other source of energy. These systems
comprise the majority of PV application in remote areas as they often
pose the most cost-effective choice for applications far from the utility
grid. Standalone systems usually endure inherent drawbacks including
low capacity factor, excessive battery prices and limited capacity to
electricity causing the waste of energy excess (Kaundinya et al., 2009;
Kazem et al., 2017).
To respond to energy related challenges, Moroccan authorities have
engaged in a highly dynamic and ambitious process of developing the
renewable energy sector to expand the share of renewable energy
sources in the energy mix to 42% of total installed capacity in 2020 and
52% in 2030, based fundamentally on solar and wind energy sources
(Vidican et al., 2013). The technical potential of low voltage electricity
grid connected rooftop solar PV in the residential sector of Morocco has
been projected to be approximately 19 GWp by 2030 although eco-
nomic potential is estimated to be quarter at around 4.6 GWp (MASEN).
In order to harness the identified huge potential of rooftop solar PV,
Morocco aims to select a net-metering approach to incentivize low-
voltage grid-connected photovoltaic plants. To implement such a vital
project profitably, meticulous assessment of monthly and yearly pro-
ductivity of grid-connected PV systems under the prevailing conditions
of Moroccan climate is highly recommended (LOWCARBON-
DEV-SUPPORT). Therefore, a national project “PROPRE.MA” has been
established by the Faculty of Science Semlalia (Marrakech) and fi-
nanced by IRESEN in order to build grid-connected PV yield maps for
the entire country through installing 20 identical roof-top systems in
partner institutions based in 20 different Moroccan cities (Aarich et al.,
2014). These rooftop units include three grid-connected PV plants using
three different technologies and have been tested since 2012. A per-
formance monitoring system has been assembled to detect the perfor-
mance characteristics of the rooftop PV systems and analyze the effect
26
Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
of meteorological conditions on their efficiency.
1.2. Paper scope and organization
The current work investigates the performance characteristics of
three variants of grid-connected PV technologies for 20 different
Moroccan cities. The primary goal is to evaluate technically and fi-
nancially the three different PV technologies under the prevailing
weather conditions of selected locations. Moreover, the rooftop PV
systems are examined from an environmental point of view by quan-
tifying the amount of mitigated CO2 emissions as a result of im-
plementing such systems. Although several studies have been reported
on the performance results of grid-connected PV systems for one given
location, the present study has the novelty in terms of performing ex-
tensive energetic analysis of grid-connected PV systems and comparing
three different technologies operating in various climatic conditions.
Additionally, this investigation comprises not only performance com-
parison in order to provide important technological recommendations,
but also addresses economic and environmental considerations of the
investigated systems based on real local market context to establish a
baseline. Moreover, to the best of the authors' knowledge, it is the first
time, that a LCOE map of PV systems is introduced for Morocco. A
distinctive contribution of this work is reporting as well the perfor-
mance of amorphous on microcrystalline PV option which is not ex-
tensively studied in the open literature, especially under various me-
teorological conditions.
The reminder of this work is as follows: Section 2 presents the
adopted methodology along with the examined PV technologies,
mathematical formulation used in the assessment study as well as some
useful retained assumptions in the analysis. Section 3 reports the results
and discussion which contain a detailed validation of the model based
on in-site recorded data along with an overall energetic, economic and
environmental assessment of the installed systems. Finally, concluding
remarks are outlined in Section 4.
2. Methods and materials
This section describes the followed approach to assess the technical,
financial and environmental feasibility of different PV technologies
operating under various climatic conditions of Morocco. Real mon-
itored experimental data, concerning the period 2016–2017 has been
collected and sorted for one of the studied sites, Meknes (Morocco). The
first step consists of making a validation between the measurements
and simulation results obtained used PVSYST software. Daily and
monthly energy AC outputs are displayed and relative error is eval-
uated. Once it is proved that the simulated model is able to describe the
electrical behavior of the installed PV systems, then extending the
analysis to reference cities of Morocco through simulations is in-
vestigated. It is interesting to note that a Typical Meteorological Year
has been employed to run the simulations based on hourly values of
ambient temperatures, solar irradiances and wind velocities. Lastly,
calculated yields have been used to assess the different performance
indexes. In what follows, the examined PV installations, their im-
plementation areas as well as the mathematical background used in the
computation processes are presented.
2.1. PV technologies
The examined photovoltaic systems have been installed since
August 2014 in the rooftop of various institutional buildings, located in
the 20 cities of Morocco (see Table 1). A full monitoring system
(weather station, module temperature and DC electrical data mea-
surements) was installed since the second half of 2016.
As stated by the “PROPRE.MA” project, the objective is to illustrate
the effect of outdoor climatic parameters on the performance of dif-
ferent PV technologies. The rooftop PV systems are grid-connected and
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Table 1 composed solar PV modules based on monocrystalline (m-Si), poly-

Overview of cities concerned with the PV project. crystalline (p-Si) and amorphous on microcrystalline (a-Si/μc-Si) tech-
City Latitude (°) Longitude (°) Altitude (m) nologies (see Fig. 1). It is interesting to note that a-Si/μc-Si structure is
obtained by stacking a μc-Si bottom cell onto an a-Si top cell. This
Agadir 30°25′12″ N 9°35′53″ W 31 m technology reduces the Staebler-Wronski effect leading to higher yields
Benimellal 32°20′14″ N 6°20′59″ W 538 m
compared to the conventional a-Si PV module. The copy of identical PV
Casablanca 33°35′17″ N 7°36′40″ W 27 m
Eljadida 33°15′17″ N 8°30′21″ W 10 m
installations are set up in 20 higher education institutions and produce
Errachidia 31°55′53″ N 4°25′35″ W 1039 m electricity which is directly injected into the internal electrical network
Fez 34°01′59″ N 5°00′01″ W 406 m of the institutional buildings through grid-connected inverters. The
Guelmim 28°59′13″ N 10°03′26″ W 301 m array of total installed capacity of each system is 5.94 kWp having three
Ifrane 31°42′07″ N 6°20′57″ W 2019 m
sub-arrays which consist of 2.04 kWp of p-Si, 2.04 kWp of m-Si and
Kenitra 34°15′39″ N 6°34′48″ W 13 m
Marrakech 31°38′02″ N 7°59′59″ W 457 m 1.86 kWp of a-Si/μc-Si stationed on the rooftop of 20 different partner
Meknes 33°53′36″ N 5°32′50″ W 531 m institutions (see Fig. 2 (Aarich et al., 2014)). Furthermore, the modules
Mohammedia 33°41′09″ N 7°22′58″ W 29 m are connected in series, facing south and tilted at 30°. This tilt angle
Nador 35°10′05″ N 2°56′00″ W 19 m
corresponds to the optimum value in Morocco. The generated power is
Ouarzazate 30°55′08″ N 6°53′36″ W 1113 m
Oujda 34°40′53″ N 1°54′30″ W 549 m
directly fed into the low-voltage internal electrical grid. In power
Rabat 30°55′08″ N 6°53′36″ W 1113 m generation systems, the modules and inverters hold certain technical
Safi 32°17′57″ N 9°14′13″ W 45 m specifications as presented in Tables 2 and 3, respectively.
Settat 33°00′03″ N 7°36′59″ W 365 m
Tangier 35°46′02″ N 5°47′59″ W 20 m
2.2. Mathematical background
Tetouan 35°34′42″ N 5°22′06″ W 121 m

Under the simulation software PVSYST, the I–V characteristics of

the PV modules are modeled using the one-diode model expressed as

⎛q V + IR s ⎞ V + IRs
I (V ) = Iph − I0 ⎡
⎢e⎝
nkTNcs ⎠ − 1⎤ −
⎥
⎣ ⎦ Rsh (1)
where I and V stand for corresponding current and voltage of the PV
module, respectively. Moreover, Iph is the photocurrent (A), I0 is the
diode reverse saturation current (A), Rs and Rsh denote the series and
shunt resistances (Ω). q is the electron charge (1.602 × 10−19 C), n is
the diode quality factor (–), T is the module operation temperature (K),
k is the Boltzmann constant (1.381 · 10−23 J/K), and Ncs is the number
of cells in series in the PV module. In the formulation, Iph is changed
with recorded irradiance G (W/m2), reference irradiance G0 and T, and
(a) m-Si modules writes as:
G
Iph = [Iph, STC + γ (T − 298)]
G0 (2)
where Iph, STC is the photocurrent under STC (A) and γ denotes for the
temperature coefficient of short-circuit current (A/K) in the equation.
Else, I0 is supposed to be as a function of T and can be evaluated as:
qEg
⎞ 1 −1 ⎤
I0 = I0, STC ⎛
T 3 ⎡⎢ ⎛ nk
⎜

⎞ e⎣ ⎝
⎟
( )
⎥
⎠ 298 T ⎦
⎝ 298 ⎠ (3)
where I0, STC is the diode reverse saturation current (A) under STC and
Eg is the band-Gap energy of the cell material (eV), respectively.

2.3. General financial and environmental assumptions

(b) p-Si modules
In the present study, financial and environmental assessment is es-
tablished considering the next inputs:

(c) Model validation : a-Si/ c-Si modules
Fig. 1. Installed PV technologies operating in Meknes city.
• The generated power from the PV modules is directly fed into the
internal low-voltage electricity network of considered buildings;
• Prices of PV systems and all additional expenses are taken at the
time when the project was lunched based on Moroccan market data.
The total investment costs are: 3721 €, 4182 € and 4385 € for p-Si,
m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si installations, respectively.
• Project lifetime is taken as T = 25 years;
• Net price of electricity from the grid utility is 0.1 €/kWh
• Annual O&M costs constitute 1% of the total investment cost and are
discounted to the rest of service life of the PV systems
• The tax rate is equal to zero due to the Moroccan tax policy con-
cerning renewable energy systems.
•
Typically investors consider the PV systems at the end of life as an

27
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of installed grid-connected PV system (continuous lines: electric wires, mixed lines: Ethernet wires, dashed lines: Bluetooth wireless
connection) (Aarich et al., 2014).

Table 2 following parameters can help to examine the performance of the in-
PV modules characteristics at STC1. stalled PV systems (Boulaid et al., 2017; Okello et al., 2015; Sharma and
System 1 System 2 System 3
Chandel, 2013; Kymakis et al., 2009):

Type of cells p-Si m-Si a-Si/μc-Si

2.4.1. Energetic indices
Open circuit voltage 38 V 37.8 V 85.5
Short circuit current 8.88 A 8.66 A 2.56 The used energetic indices in this study are the reference yield (YR),
Maximum power point voltage 30.9 V 31.4 V 65.2 V final yield (YF), performance ratio (PR), yearly capacity factor (CF) and
Maximum power point current 8.32 A 8.15 A 2.38 A yearly electric conversion (η). Their expressions are given, respectively
Temperature coefficient of 4.4 mA/°C 3.5 mA/°C 0.07%/°C
by Eqs. (4)–(8):
short circuit current
Temperature coefficient of −0.41%/°C −0.45%/°C −0.28%/°C Hinc
maximum power YR =
G0 (4)
Supplier Solar World NexPower
Model Sunmodule SW NT-155AF
Module dimension 1675 × 1001 mm2 1400 × 1100 mm2 EAC
YF =
Nominal power 255 Wp 155 Wp Prated (5)
Efficiency rating 15.2% 9.87%
Weight 21 kg 19.5 kg YF
PR =
a 2 YR (6)
STC (Standard Test Conditions): irradiance 1000 W/m , module tempera-
ture 25C, and air mass 1.5.
EAC
CF =
Prated × 24 × 365 (7)
Table 3
Inverter technical specifications.
EAC
η=
Parameters Specifications Hinc × APV (8)
Operating mode MPPT 2
where Hinc is the incident energy in the array plane Hinc (kWh/m ), G0
Maximum DC Power 2.1 kW
array reference irradiance (1000 W/m2), EAC is the net energy produced
Maximum DC Voltage 700 V
Nominal AC Power 2.0 kW
(kWh), Prated is the rated power output delivered under standard test
MPP DC Voltage range 175–560 V conditions (kWp) and APV is the area covered by the PV arrays (m2).
Maximum efficiency 96%

2.4.2. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

asset with no residual value where the benefits of recycling are off-
set by the cost of decommissioning. So, no depreciation is con-
sidered in the present analysis.
• Inflation rate is supposed to be 2.5%
2.4. Performance indices
In order to compare these three variants of PV technologies, the
LCOE implies a helpful summary evaluation of the overall compe-
titiveness of various power generation options (Congedo et al., 2013). It
is equal to ratio of the sum of total cost incurring during the lifetime of
the project to the units of electricity generated by the installation over
its life service (Edalati et al., 2016; Parrado et al., 2016). LCOE ap-
proach considers overall installation costs occurring during the project
lifespan and the associated energy production. The next formula is used
to compute the LCOE (Al-Otaibi et al., 2015; Branker et al., 2011;
Marion et al., 2005)

28
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Fig. 3. Annual averages of wind speeds and ambient temperatures in selected cities.

Fig. 4. Annual global horizontal and tilted irradiations in selected cities.

LP
It + ∑t = 0 Ot + Mt /(1 + r )t first-year operation (kWh) while d is the degradation rate (%) of the PV
LCOE = LP systems over the specified period. LP is the life cycle of the project
∑t = 0 Et /(1 + r )t (9)
(year), t is the corresponding year, and r is the discount rate (%).
with Reliability and degradation of PV modules are a critical concern to
maintain the operation of PV modules for 25–30 years. Performance
Et = St (1 − d )t (10) degradation of PV modules in site condition is originated from packa-
In the above expressions, It covers the initial investment (€) com- ging materials, semiconductor degradation, and interconnection ribbon
prising construction, erection and additional expenses. Ot and Mt de- and adhesion losses (Rajput et al., 2017). Recently, the degradation rate
scribe the operation and maintenance costs (€) consumed during the of PV panels is reported to be below 1% per year in 78% of cases among
period t, respectively. St denotes the annual energy output during the the 2000 available data. Due to the recent technological advances, the

29
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Table 4
Comparison between measured and simulated energy productions (kWh).
Monthly energy generation of a-Si/μc-Si Monthly energy generation of m-Si Monthly energy generation of p-Si

Months Measured Predicted Error (%) Measured Predicted Error (%) Measured Predicted Error (%)

January 221.6 244.1 9.20% 266.9 271.9 1.82% 266.0 274 2.90%
February 204.7 222.9 8.13% 244.1 245.3 0.46% 244.0 247.4 1.35%
March 286.4 307.2 6.76% 335.4 336.6 0.33% 336.5 339.9 1.00%
April 292.0 297.8 1.95% 335.2 323.6 3.62% 338.2 326.9 3.46%
May 278.9 303 7.95% 313.9 331 5.15% 317.7 334.7 5.05%
June 318.5 311.6 2.23% 340.7 344 0.95% 353.7 348.7 1.44%
July 301.0 326.6 7.83% 325.9 363.7 10.39% 329.7 369.4 10.74%
August 298.7 321.7 7.13% 321.3 358.3 10.32% 326.4 364.1 10.35%
September 303.4 288.1 5.32% 331.6 319.3 3.88% 330.7 323.7 2.17%
October 249.4 273.2 8.68% 290.4 303.9 4.43% 289.5 307.6 5.85%
November 199.6 237.4 15.91% 232.1 266.2 12.81% 229.1 268.7 14.72%
December 189.0 224.1 15.65% 234.7 252.1 6.87% 231.9 253.9 8.66%

degradation of present in c-Si (crystalline silicon) cells is assumed as EC × FC

0.8–0.9% per year (Jordan et al., 2016). Recent studies show that the
degradation of module efficiency for a-Si/μc-Si PV modules is 2.2% per
year (Kichou et al., 2016). The retained values of degradation rates in
the analysis are 0.9% for c-Si modules and 2.2% for a-Si/μc-Si PV
modules.
In order to draw realistic conclusions for financing PV grid-con-
nected systems operating in Morocco, a country-specific discount rate
must be estimated. The approach is based on the methodology followed
Tao and Finenko (2016) and Ondraczek et al. (2015). These authors,
among others, pointed out that in the case unavailability of project-
specific data, the discount rate to be utilized should be the risk adjusted
weighted cost of capital (WACC) representative for the country. It
should be stressed that the cost of erection was spent at the beginning of
the project to pay for the equipment, transportation and installation.
Accordingly, a 100% Equity scenario has been adopted in the present
analysis. In such situation, the WACC corresponds to the Cost of Equity
in Morocco which was quantified through the application of the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The obtained value of discount rate is
about 9.4%.
2.4.3. Discounted payback period
The discounted payback time (DPP) is a commonly applied assess-
ment index employed in feasibility studies of various energy invest-
ments such as PV systems in the present case (Alam et al., 2017). It
represents the time during which the cumulative net present value of a
project’s cash flows is equal to zero. It can be obtained by solving
(Orioli and Di Gangi, 2015):
DPP
CFn
∑ (1 + r )n
=0
1 (11)
CFn is the cash flow related to the n-th year and r is the discount rate
2.4.4. Environmental impact
Various greenhouse gases cause environmental pollution; particu-
larly, CO2 is the main pollutant that is warming Earth. Although living
things emit CO2 when they inhale, CO2 is often regarded as a pollutant
when accompanied with cars, planes, power plants, and other human
activities that involve burning of fossil fuels such as gasoline, natural
gas, etc. (Allouhi et al., 2016). Therefore, this study discusses the po-
tential of CO2 emissions reduction through implementing such PV
systems as well. In this context, the method to determine the mitigated
CO2 emission for PV installations is to assume that each renewable
energy based kWh of electricity produced substitutes each kWh of
electricity generated by the conventional energy systems. Thus, the
avoided CO2 emission quantities per installed capacity can be calcu-
lated by
EMAV =
1000 × Prated (13)
where EC and FC denote for the energy produced by conventional op-
tions (kW h) during a certain period and the carbon mitigation factor,
respectively. FC can be found by subtracting the PV system life cycle
emission from the grid electricity emission factor determined based on
the national electricity mix. The life cycle emissions for PV systems are
estimated to be 53 g CO2,eq/kWh for p-Si, 61 g CO2,eq/kWh for m-Si
and 187.8 CO2,eq/kWh for a-Si/μc-Si PV systems (NATIONALGEOGR-
APHIC; Peng et al., 2013; Hou et al., 2016) meanwhile grid electricity
emission factor is estimated to be 746 g CO2/kWh for the Moroccan
scenario (Allouhi et al., 2015).
3. Results and discussion
In literature, various computing environments have been introduced
to allow truly effective trajectory prediction and comprehensive per-
formance assessment of solar PV plants (Rajput et al., 2017). In the
present investigation, PVSYST is employed to simulate the three in-
stalled grid-connected PV systems. Since the only meteorological data
available are those of Meknes, Typical Meteorological Years for the
other cities were generated using METEONORM database (METEON-
ORM). First, an overview of the main climatic conditions is presented
for the studied sites.
Fig. 3 indicates that there are significant variations in the prevailing
weather conditions of the studied cities. Specifically, the minimum
average ambient temperature of 15.2 °C is observed in Ifrane. It is im-
portant to highlight that the city generally enjoys a cold climate during
the winter period and holds the lowest temperature of - 23.9 °C re-
corded on the African continent, which occurred on February 19, 1935
(WMO). Yet, the maximum average temperature of about 23 °C is re-
corded in three cities namely Nador, Guelmim and Settat, with only
small deviations. The rest of the cities generally has temperate climate
and exposes to annual outdoor temperatures in the average of 19 °C.
Relatively high wind speeds have a positive influence on the energy
output extracted from PV modules as they cause a reduction in the cell
temperature and create a cooling effect (Gökmen et al., 2016; Kaldellis
et al., 2014; Kaplani and Kaplanis, 2014). As such, average annual wind
speeds were plotted in the same figure. It is shown that the highest
annual wind speeds are seen in coastal regions such as Tangier (4.8 m/
s), Tetouan (4.4 m/s) and Rabat (3.9 m/s). Other cities have annual
mean wind speeds ranging from 1.7 m/s to 3.6 m/s. On the contrary,
the lowest wind speed is observed in Benimellal.
The most influencing parameter on the energy yields of any PV
system is the global solar radiation (Bertrand et al., 2018; Gürtürk et al.,
2018). Both horizontal and incident solar irradiations generated for a
Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) of each city are presented in Fig. 4.
In the case of incident solar radiations, all the computations are

30
A. Allouhi et al.
(a) Model validation : m-Si modules
(b) Model validation : p-Si modules
(c) Model validation : a-Si/ȝc-Si modules
Fig. 5. Daily simulation results and experimental data (Meknes city).
performed accounting for a tilt angle of 30° and an orientation toward
the south. This angle corresponds to the optimum inclination for the
majority of Moroccan cities and is observed in all the constructed ex-
perimental installations under study. As can be expected, adjusting
solar panels at an inclination of 30° leads to a net increase of nearly
12% in the upcoming solar irradiation on the inclined surface. Fur-
thermore, the solar potential can be identified in three southern cities:
Ouarzazate (the firs-ranked site), followed by Guelmim and then Er-
rachidia. In these regions, annual solar irradiation on the tilted surface
is nearly 2500 kWh/m2/year. For the rest of the locations in the study
31
Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
area, the solar radiation intensity is in the range of 2100–2250 kWh/
m2/year. The lowest solar radiation levels are observed in Casablanca
and Tetouan. Based on the data, it is possible to expect that the energy
yields of examined PV systems will present certain variabilities in the
cities with the corresponding solar radiation intensities. Also, it is es-
sential to note that, based on the map of annual average global hor-
izontal irradiation illustrated in (Huld et al., 2012); the solar energy
potential of Moroccan cities is greater than that of major European ci-
ties.
Before conducting further analyses for the performance prediction
in all the study sites, it is necessary to perform a comparison tests be-
tween the computed results and measured data gathered from the data
acquisition system. It is worth to mention that the available measured
data appertains to the Meknes city for over a one-year monitoring
period. A comparative study initially is made between the net energy
outputs of each PV technology during the year 2016 and simulated
productions using the simulation tool as the obtained results are furn-
ished to demonstrate in Table 4. The error analysis conducted verifies
that the predicted results are in good agreement with measured values
except for some particular months, in which the relative difference
between them is significantly high (November, July, and August).
However, the discrepancies occur in all the examined PV arrays in-
dicating that the main cause of mismatch is the meteorological inputs,
which were derived from the METEONORM database for simulation
purposes. The second comparison is performed by assessing the elec-
trical power injection into the grid as a function of the daily global solar
irradiation (see Fig. 5). The validation method, applied here, allows
drawing clear conclusion of the relationship between simulation and
experimental results as the difference between in-site solar radiations
and those generated by the meteorological database can be avoided.
The main source of difference in operating conditions is due to the
ambient temperature and wind speeds. One can confirm that the pre-
dicted results agree well with the measured results, especially for m-Si
and p-Si modules, particularly at low and medium solar intensities. As
solar irradiations on tilted surfaces increase, the relative error between
real and simulated results becomes significant. Overall, the used model
slightly underestimates the generated energy. One should note that the
measured data are recorded every 15 min. To a degree, a numerical
integration was achieved to compute the average daily solar energy
available and corresponding PV energy generations.
The next set of results illustrates the energetic, financial and en-
vironmental performance of each PV technology with respect to the
selected geographical site. To start, the average reference yield is as-
sessed, formulated in Eq. (4), as shown in Fig. 6. The results confirm the
validity of incident solar irradiations simulation as previously pre-
sented. The maximum annual reference yield is predicted as an average
value of 7.05 h in Ouarzazate. The following sites including Errachidia,
Guelmim, Nador and Settat are aligned with the values in the range of
6.95 h, respectively. The city of Marrakech distinguishes the previous
class of cities from the rest in terms of having relatively less solar en-
ergy potential. That is to say, the annual reference yield in Marrakech is
about 6.48 h. The rest of the cities have reference yields between 5.9 h
and 6.3 h while the lowest reference yield value of 5.7 h is identified in
Casablanca.
The annual average final yield, as previously described in Eq. (5),
for each technology is plotted for the selected sites as illustrated in
Fig. 7. It can be clearly observed that a-Si/μc-Si technology induces the
lowest average final yield, independently of the location. The p-Si and
m-Si modules have approximately the same average yield with a minor
superiority of p-Si modules. The highest final yield is attained in
Ouarzazate and is evaluated to be 5.58 h for a-Si/μc-Si technology,
5.63 h for m-si and 5.71 h for p-Si technology. The lowest final yield
among the studied sites is obtained for Casablanca with the average
values below 4.8 h. The tendency of the final yield follows generally the
trend of the reference yield as the most dominant parameter in com-
puting the final yield is the solar irradiations falling on the panel
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Fig. 6. Annual average reference yield in selected cities.

Fig. 7. Annual average final yield in selected cities for the compared technologies.

surfaces. It should be remarked that the cause of having slightly more
energy outputs for the p-Si against the m-Si despite having the same
rated capacities is the specific temperature coefficient, which is equal to
−0.45%/°C for m-Si modules while it is equal of −0.41%/°C for p-Si
modules.
The performance ratio, expressing the ratio of final yield to the
reference yield, has been assessed for each technology and site as the
results are displayed in Fig. 8. It can be clearly derived from the graph
that the cities ranking has been changed as they were previously ranked
based on their average final yield annually. Here, the best performance
ratio is achieved in Casablanca city, with the lowest solar energy po-
tential among others. This result can be attributed to the fact that this
city has the lowest reference yield although producing acceptable final
yield at the same time. This is probably due to fact that the city itself
benefits from the cold ambient temperature that positively influences
the energy output from the PV modules utilizing the same solar irra-
diation level. Yet, the reverse scenario is observed in the case of Nador
city that enjoys huge solar potential (high reference yield), on the other
hand, suffers from extremely high ambient temperatures. Moreover, as
shown in the same figure, overall performance ratio is found to be
around 81.125% for the crystalline silicon based installations in almost
all regions investigated here. Independent of the technology applied, a
minimum performance ratio of 77% is attainable in all the selected
cities, which highlights the fact that PV technologies can be utilized

32
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Fig. 8. Annual performance ration in selected cities for the compared technologies.

Table 5 Table 6
Yearly capacity factors of the different PV installations. Annual conversion efficiencies for the different PV installations.
Capacity factor Annual conversion efficiency

City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si

Agadir 21.305% 21.560% 21.043% Agadir 12.432% 12.581% 7.973%

Benimellal 21.061% 21.325% 20.798% Benimellal 12.309% 12.464% 7.892%
Casablanca 19.808% 20.014% 19.659% Casablanca 12.623% 12.754% 8.134%
Eljadida 21.170% 21.408% 20.939% Eljadida 12.539% 12.681% 8.053%
Errachidia 23.170% 23.489% 22.891% Errachidia 12.126% 12.293% 7.779%
Fez 21.056% 21.305% 20.814% Fez 12.418% 12.565% 7.970%
Guelmim 22.757% 23.098% 22.270% Guelmim 11.966% 12.145% 7.603%
Ifrane 20.754% 20.978% 20.817% Ifrane 12.478% 12.612% 8.126%
Kenitra 21.096% 21.334% 20.874% Kenitra 12.547% 12.689% 8.061%
Marrakech 21.797% 22.006% 21.431% Marrakech 12.298% 12.415% 7.850%
Meknes 20.794% 21.035% 20.608% Meknes 12.427% 12.571% 7.996%
Mohammedia 20.420% 20.641% 20.229% Mohammedia 12.590% 12.726% 8.098%
Nador 22.679% 23.024% 22.128% Nador 11.940% 12.122% 7.564%
Ouarzazate 23.475% 23.799% 23.246% Ouarzazate 12.132% 12.299% 7.800%
Oujda 21.242% 21.491% 21.054% Oujda 12.417% 12.563% 7.991%
Rabat 20.580% 20.803% 20.368% Rabat 12.673% 12.810% 8.143%
Safi 21.111% 21.365% 20.924% Safi 12.430% 12.579% 7.998%
Settat 22.707% 23.046% 22.239% Settat 11.976% 12.155% 7.615%
Tangier 21.515% 21.764% 21.241% Tangier 12.465% 12.609% 7.990%
Tetouan 19.975% 20.198% 19.703% Tetouan 12.510% 12.650% 8.012%

effectively for electricity generation in Morocco.
The capacity factors and conversion efficiency for each technology
and corresponding city are listed in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. The
capacity factor is in the range of 19.808–23.475% for the m-Si tech-
nology, 20.014–23.799% for the p-Si technology and 19.659–23.246%
for the a-Si/μc-Si, respectively. The energy conversion efficiencies
computed annually varies between 11.966% and 12.7673% for the m-Si
technology, 12.145–12.810% for the p-Si technology and
7.603–8.143% for the a-Si/μc-Si, respectively. The best site in terms of
having the highest conversion efficiency is Ouarzazate while the lowest
value is attained in Guelmim. Overall, p-Si technology seems to be the
optimal technology for solar conversion, independent of the location.
The energy yields and technical performance of PV modules are not
the only parameters considered for decision-making. Economic indices
are also required to be understood in depth for evaluating the potential
of renewable energy systems in substituting conventional counterparts.
The first financial parameter evaluated is the discounted payback time.
The results generated by considering market costs at the time of the
project are given in Table 7. The main conclusion that can be drawn
from the results is that the payback time varies considerably with re-
spect to the technology. More specifically, the a-Si/μc-Si is character-
ized by the longest discounted payback period of around 38.6 years for
Casablanca. Meanwhile, the average DPB for a-Si/μc-Si technology is up
to 28.62 years. The shortest DPB was attained for the p-Si technology
that has the lowest investment cost and the best performance at all. For
p-Si technology, the DPB ranges between 14.42 and 19.80 years in
Ouarzazate and Casablanca, respectively. The average DPB is higher for
the m-Si in comparison to p-Si by about 26%.

33
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

Table 7 13.75 cent€/kWh, 10.94 cent€/kWh and 9.75 cent€/kWh for a-Si/μc-Si,
Discounted Payback period of the different PV installations. m-Si and p-Si installations, respectively. However, as compared to the
Discounted Payback period (years) unit cost of electricity bought from the grid, one can claim that solar PV
technology is somewhat competitive in sunny Moroccan regions espe-
City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si cially for the p-Si technologies. Increasingly competitive LCOEs can be
achieved when the cost of PV modules is reduced substantially. In the
Agadir 21.62 17.15 28.68
Benimellal 22.15 17.50 28.98 present study, the sensitivity analysis has been made based on LCOE
Casablanca 25.76 19.81 38.60 and DPB for Meknes by considering progressive cost reductions of PV
Eljadida 21.95 17.37 29.76 technologies up to 30%. As presented in Fig. 10, the results indicate that
Errachidia 18.17 14.74 19.81 the financial competitiveness of considered solar PV technologies can
Fez 22.19 17.53 29.55
be improved significantly when initial investment costs are reduced.
Guelmim 18.78 15.17 22.66
Ifrane 22.96 18.04 30.21 The final set of results quantifies the potential reduction in CO2
Kenitra 22.11 17.48 30.13 emissions by adopting PV power generation technologies in the studied
Marrakech 20.70 16.51 26.32 locations. This potential is evaluated in terms of CO2 emissions per
Meknes 22.84 17.95 30.67
installed capacity (see Table 8). Such information can also serve as a
Mohammedia 23.86 18.62 33.89
Nador 18.90 15.25 22.89
rapid tool to estimate the environmental benefits of installing PV sys-
Ouarzazate 17.72 14.42 21.26 tems at a given location. The quantity of avoided CO2 emissions is
Oujda 21.76 17.24 28.63 strongly dependent on the annual energy generation. Ouarzazate allows
Rabat 23.77 18.56 33.65 the maximum reduction potential in CO2 emission as 1.455 tons of CO2/
Safi 22.06 17.44 29.13
kWp for p-Si technology, 1.409 tons of CO2/kWp for m-Si technology
Settat 18.86 15.23 22.77
Tangier 21.17 16.85 28.12 and 1.138 tons of CO2/kWp for -Si/μc-Si technology, respectively. The
Tetouan 25.18 19.44 36.91 minimum avoided emissions were found to occur in Casablanca just
below 0.963 tons of CO2/kWp.

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been determined for

each region and PV technology, based on the Moroccan market con-
siderations and previously mentioned assumptions (see Fig. 9). Due to
the high cost of a-Si/μc-Si modules against the m-Si and p-Si, the LCOE
of this technology is found to be the topmost among others. In addition,
the high cost of m-Si comparing to p-Si causes a remarkable difference
between LCOE of m-Si and p-Si even that the final yields of these sys-
tems is quite similar. In the present scenario, one can confirm that the
p-Si modules are cost-effective solutions for solar power generation in
Morocco. The best sites, from a financial/technical perspective having
the lowest LCOE are the sites with high solar energy resource, i.e:
Ourzazate and Errachidia. The corresponding LCOE are between 8.30
and 11.21 cent€/kWh. Casablanca remains as the limited site for im-
plementing solar PV systems as it presented the highest LCOE of
4. Conclusion
The current study investigates the energetic, economic and en-
vironmental analyses and LCOE estimation of three types (p-Si, m-Si
and a-Si/μc-Si) of grid-connected PV systems installed in 20 Moroccan
cities. Meteorological data belonging to these 20 cities were collected
from METEONORM database and relevant simulations were performed
in PVSYST simulation software. Annual energy performance indexes of
the three types of PV technologies were evaluated under various
Moroccan climates. Similarly, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)
has been determined for each region. As for the environmental analysis,
the amount of GHG emissions reduced through implementing proposed
PV systems at the given locations were estimated. The concluding re-
marks can be outlined as follows:

Fig. 9. Levelized cost of electricity in selected cities for the compared technologies.

34
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36

14 35.00

12 30.00

10 25.00

DPB (years)
LCOE (c€)
8 20.00

6 15.00

4 10.00

2 5.00
LCOE m-Si LCOE p-Si LCOE a-Si/ c-Si
DPB m-Si DPB p-Si DPB a-Si/ c-Si
0 0.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Fig. 10. Influence of equipment cost reductions on LCOE and DPB.

Table 8
CO2 mitigation potential in the selected cities for the compared technologies.
• Apart from the payback period, LCOE analysis has proved under the
present circumstances that the p-Si system were the most cost-ef-
Avoided annual emissions of CO2 (tons/kWp) fective solution for solar power generation in Morocco. It was also
concluded that there is a strong correlation between LCOE and solar
City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si energy resource as the sites offering the lowest LCOE coincide with
the regions that have abundant potential of solar power. Overall,
Agadir 1.278 1.309 1.030
Benimellal 1.264 1.295 1.018
lower PV module costs are translated into competitive LCOEs where
Casablanca 1.189 1.215 0.963 reducing the cost of PV equipment by 30% would mean a significant
Eljadida 1.270 1.300 1.025 reduction in LCOE and payback periods. Finally, environmental
Errachidia 1.390 1.426 1.121 analysis has revealed that the how much CO2 avoided is greatly
Fez 1.263 1.293 1.019
affected by the amount of energy generated with environmentally
Guelmim 1.366 1.402 1.091
Ifrane 1.245 1.274 1.019 friendly PV systems. For instance, the minimum amount of CO2
Kenitra 1.266 1.295 1.022 (below 0.963 tons of CO2/kWp) was mitigated in Casablanca which
Marrakech 1.308 1.336 1.049 presented the least solar energy potential among other sites.
Meknes 1.248 1.277 1.009
Mohammedia 1.225 1.253 0.991
Nador 1.361 1.398 1.084
Acknowledgments
Ouarzazate 1.409 1.445 1.138
Oujda 1.275 1.305 1.031 The support provided by the “Institut de Recherche en Energie
Rabat 1.235 1.263 0.997 Solaire et Energies Nouvelles (IRESEN)” is appreciated by the authors of
Safi 1.267 1.297 1.025
this paper.
Settat 1.363 1.399 1.089
Tangier 1.291 1.321 1.040
Tetouan 1.199 1.226 0.965 References

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