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MATHS INTERNAL ASSESSMENT

A study on how the Ebola Virus Disease correlates with the SIR Model

The British School of Rio de Janeiro

November 2020 session

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Table of Contents:

Introduction and personal approach……………………………………….……….……..3

Describing SIR model……………………………………….………………………….…..3

SIR Model and the Ebola Virus disease……………………………….……………….…5

Using Euler's technique to resolve the SIR Model………………………...………….....8

Real life situation……………………………………….…………………….……………..10

Conclusion……………………………………….…………………….…………………….10

Bibliography……………………………………….…………………….……………………11

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​Introduction

Due to the current global situation revolving around the COVID-19 pandemic, an interest arose to me about
the great possibility of a model predicting these deadly epidemics. So, after researching many different
models, I found the SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Removed), which attracted my attention because it was a
model which handled complicated circumstances. One example of such is the resulting number of people
infected even after recovery, something which I found astonishing. This investigation will focus on the
relationship between the SIR Model and the Ebola Disease Epidemic, which just as the COVID-19, captured
interest worldwide as it was and still is a fatal disease, even though it was spread only along Africa. I will
basically understand the model and then apply it to this epidemic.

Describing SIR Model

This epidemiological model, which theoretically computes the number of infected people with an infectious
disease of a certain population through time, has its origin from an important piece of work by the famous
epidemiologist McKedrick and the biochemist Kermack in 1927. This model reveals a prediction on top of a
disease's spread, the total number of people infected, its reproductive number and even the duration of an
epidemic whilst applying either deterministic dissimilar equations or random framework. Its letters signify
Susceptible, Infected and Recovered. Moreover, it's of great importance the usage of such a model as it could
aid the world in understanding the outcome of the epidemic's consequences, and so, helping the organization
of a country's health institutions to prepare themselves on top of such.

When applying such a model, we must acknowledge its variables. As the SIR measures the impact of a
disease overtime, time may be considered as the independent variable that we may change to control.
Hence, the dependent variables may be split into three classification, which both are in relation to a portion of
the total population:
1. Recovered portion of the total population which can't in any
way transmit the disease or pass to others.
2. Infected portion of the total population, which are presently
infected
3. Vulnerable portion of the total population, which have not yet
caught the disease, but are ​susceptible​ to catch.
Independent variable:
P​ = period of time

Dependent variables:
Rp​= Recovered part of the total population = ​Ip ​/ N
Ip​= Infected portion of the total population = ​Ip ​/ N
Sp​ = Vulnerable and susceptible fraction of the total population = ​Sp ​/ N
Other variable:
N ​= population size

Suppositions:

The SIR model uses some suppositions before being applied.

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For example, firstly, it assumes that the population size is constant. Hence, it does not grasp information on
top of migration, death rates and birth rates, stating that a vulnerable individual can only become infected if it
gets in contact with an infected person.

Secondly, it also concludes that there is no abeyance on getting the disease, so if you get infected, you are
automatically contagious and risking to spread it. Thus, formulating the fact that the people who are
vulnerable to the disease, ​Sp​, are either infected or not infected at all.

Lastly, it is also considered the fact that each and every person has the exact same risk of getting infected as
the other. For example, all individuals acquire the same danger of being vulnerable and prone to catch the
disease through those who have already been infected, independent of any social factor.

Hence, it is clear to affirm, according to the SIR model, that when someone is infected and gets recovered,
there is no risk of it getting infected again and that there is an infectious ​period where the ones infected have
to go through before getting recuperated.

Equations derived from suppositions and description of SIR Model:

1. Sp ​x Ip. → ​This equation basically summarises the fact previously stated that the SIR Model
states that when a vulnerable person gets infected, it then becomes an infective. Hence, by
showing the multiplication of such, this equation shows the number of encounters between
the infected and the vulnerable ones.

2. The diseases outbreak is severe

3. As, previously stated, the SIR Models depicts that there is a spread of disease when a
vulnerable person is exposed to an infected. But, this does not mean that every time that a
vulnerable person meets an infected, it turns infected. Hence, there is a value of ​E​, that we
can concern as being the proportion of times that these encounters actually made a
vulnerable person become an infected person. This can be regarded in the following equation
→ ​Sp ​- ( ​E ​x ​Sp ​x I​ p​) = ​Sp ​+ ​1

4. In the SIR model, as there is a time interval between periods where a person may get
infected, there is at the same time the chance of one or another getting recovered becoming
part of the ​Rp​. This period of "possible recovery" when infected individuals develop into the
recovered class of people will be regarded as ​Z, ​just as the number of people that died from
the disease ​will also be. ​So, in order to apply this in the investigation, we must formulate the
following equations → ​Ip ​+ ( ​E ​x​ Sp ​x I​ p ) ​- (​Z ​x ​Ip) ​= ​Ip ​+​ 1​ ​ and ​Rp ​+ ( ​Z​ x ​Ip ​) = ​ Rp + 1​.

Conclusion of equations found:

● Ip ​+ ( ​E x​ ​ Sp ​x ​Ip ) ​- (​Z ​x I​ p) ​= ​Ip +

​ ​1

● Sp ​- ( ​E ​x ​Sp x​ ​Ip​) = ​Sp ​+ ​1

● Rp ​+ ( ​Z​ x ​Ip ​) = ​ Rp + 1

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Two developments of these questions:

- Moreover, as these equations show what will happen in the following time gap, it is important to find
equations which evaluate the alterations during a single time gap by adding all of them together:

[ ​Ip ​+ ( ​E ​x​ Sp ​x ​Ip ) ​- (​Z ​x ​Ip) ​= ​Ip ​+​ 1​ ]​ + [ ​Sp -​ ( ​E ​x ​Sp ​x ​Ip​) = ​Sp ​+ ​1​ ​] + [ ​Rp ​+ ( ​Z​ x ​Ip )​ = ​ Rp + 1​ ​] =
(​Sp ​+ ​1) ​+ ​ (Ip ​+​ 1) ​+ ​Rp + 1 ​= ​Sp + ​ ​Ip ​+ ​Rp

Meaning, ​(​Sp ​+ ​1) ​+ ​ (Ip ​+​ 1) ​+ (​Rp + 1) =

​ ​Sp ​+ ​Ip ​+ ​Rp​ is equal to 1.

- Also, these three equations can be further concluded to be :

● △​I ​ = ( ​E ​x ​Sp x​ ​Ip ) ​ - (​ Z ​x ​Ip​ )

● △​S ​ = - ​E ​x ​Sp x​ ​Ip

● △​R ​ = ​Z ​x ​Ip

→(E​ x​ S
​ p ​x ​Ip ) ​ - (​ Z x​ ​Ip​ ) + - E
​ x​ S
​ p ​x I​ p ​+ ​Z x​ ​Ip ​= 0
→ So, △​R + ​△​S + ​△I​ ​=0 also!
Meaning, there is a total of 0 change in the population

- Therefore, it makes sense to say that ​N = S + I + R

The SIR Model and the Ebola Virus Disease

The SIR model was extensively applied on the famous epidemic of the Ebola Virus infection. During 2014 -
2016, there was a huge outbreak of the rare and deadly Ebola virus disease which infects particularly people,
as well as nonhuman primates. The disease was caused by a virus of the family Filoviridae and specifically
during these years of study of this investigation, it was due to the ​Zaire strain.​ The disease spread majoritarily
through West Africa, not excluding all other areas of the continent and marked the largest epidemic of the
virus since its discovery in 1976 in the Republic of Congo. Furthermore, there were 28,646 reported cases
and 11,323 reported deaths. The fact that the Ebola virus not only did greatly physically impact Western
Africa, but also affected psychologically and socially the entire world, triggered me to delve into this
investigation. I will specifically focus on three western african countries : Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia,
which were the most affected regions in the year of 2014.

Applying the SIR Model to the Ebola Virus Disease in Western Africa during 2014

In order to apply the SIR model to the ebola virus disease values, the time set chosen was November 2014
over a two month period, where ​P​, period of time, = 0.
Hence, N = S (p) + I (p) + R (p).

We also must gather information for the population of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

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Total population number (N)

Guinea 11745000

Sierra Leone 6092000

Liberia 4294000

Table 1: total number of residents living in the three African countries, 2014.

As a start, ​Guinea​ will be used as an example. Data was gathered from WHO and other renowned websites:

N= 11745000
S(0)= 11745000 - 1612 = 11743388
I(0)= 1612 = infected
R(0)= 0 = recovered
We may multiply these values by 1/ N so that they can turn into these following equations:

1/N = 0.00000009
S(0)= 1.05690492

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I(0)= 1.4508 X 10
R(0)=0
Moreover =two other important pieces of information are:

Z= 9 days = Predicted average period of infection = 1/9

E= Infection rate; chances of a new individual becoming infected daily= ½

In order to organize data better, this same information was put in a table for the other chosen countries.

Country 1/N S (0) 1/N x S(0) I(0) 1/N x I(0) R(0) 1/N x Z E
R(0)

Guinea 0.00000009 11745000 1.05690492 1612 1.4508 X 10ˆ- 4 0 0 9 days = ½

1/9

Sierra 0.00000016 6087477 0.973999632 4523 7.2368X 10ˆ- 4 0 0 9 days = ½

Leone 1/9

Liberia 0.00000023 4291447 0.98703281 2553 5.8719 X 10ˆ- 4 0 0 9 days = ½

1/9

Table 2: Variables of the investigation for the three countries in November 2014

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So, the Ebola Virus Disease may be conveyed by the equations:

△​I ​ = ½ ​S(p) ​x ​I(p) ​ - 1/9 I(​p​) △​S ​ = - ½ ​S(p) ​x ​Ip ​△​R ​ = 1/9 ​I(p)

Using these equations, we may formulate three graph models for each country in regards to the Ebola Virus
Disease:

SIR MODEL FOR GUINEA

Graph 1 : Guinea's SIR model for over 60 days since the start of November 2014

SIR MODEL FOR SIERRA LEONE

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Graph 2 : Sierra Leone's SIR model for over 60 days since the start of November 2014

SIR MODEL FOR LIBERIA

Graph 3 : Liberia's SIR model for over 60 days since the start of November 2014

Analysis of graph:

As shown by the three graphs, there was an extreme drop on the number of people susceptible to become
infected by the ebola virus disease, from the start of November 2014 until 60 days after. Regarding Guinea's
graph, the susceptible individuals started with a number almost at 1.05 and dropped more than 50% as it
reached a bottom line number of approximately 0.2, just as Liberia's and Sierra Leone's graph. Furthermore,
in relation to the number of infected individuals, the values from the three graphs tend to show a sudden
increase and decrease, reaching the same value as it initially started. For example, it can be analyzed by
observing graph 2 that from the start of November 2014 until 30 days after, there was an increase of 0.4 on
the rate of infection. However, this rate gradually starts dropping and reaches by the 60th day approximately
the value it started of 0.0007. Impressively, the number of recovered individuals on all of the graphs had a
gradual and steady increase which then started to become less steeper by the 40th day, at the same time the
susceptible rates were decreasing. The recovered rate kept its positive slope throughout the 60
days.Perhaps, this is a reflection of the countries' real life situation of that time.

Utilizing Euler's method and differentiation to solve the SIR model

In order to dig deeper into the knowledge of what was grasped, I chose to utilize Euler's method to
understand better. It basically discovers approximations of values in order to resolve differential equations.
Euler's differential equation are: dy/dt = f(y,t), tn = t(n-1) + △t and yn=y(n-1) + f(y(n-1), t(n-1) x △t . In my

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case, with my values, they are: dZ/dP = f(Z,P), Pn = P(n-1) + △P and Zn=Z(n-1) + f(Z(n-1), P(n-1) x△P,
respectively.
Using this method, it can be concluded about the SIR model that : ​Sp=S(p-1) +△S​, ​Ip= I(p-1) +△I and ​Rp=
R(p-1) +△R. ​However, as fractions were used, their equations, already shown in this investigation, must also
be considered. Thus, S(p+1) = ​Sp - E x Sp x Ip x △P​, ​I(p+1) = Ip + ( E x Sp x Ip) x △P and ​R(p+1) = Rp + Z
x Ip x △P, ​which can be substituted by my values:

The example being used will be in fractions and done with the country of Guinea:

Period of time Susceptibles Infected Recovered

P=0 S0 = 1.05690492 I0=0.00014508 R0=0

P=1 S1 = S0 -½ S0 x I0 x 1 I1= I0 + (½ S0 x I0 - 1/9 R1=R0 +1/9 x I0 x 1

I0) x 1

P=n Sn = Sn-1 x -½ Sn-1 x In= I(n-1) + (½ S0 x I0 - Rn = R(n-1) + 1/9 x

In-1 x △n 1/9 x I(n-1)) x △n I(n-1) x △n

Table 3: The SIR equations found by the Euler's method substituted by SIR values found

This can be put into two graphs in order to compare, just as in:

P=1 P=3

Graph 5: SIR model utilizing Euler's method for P=3

Graph 4: SIR model utilizing Euler's method for P=1

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Analysis of graphs:

As conveyed in graphs 4 and 5, the P- value makes the SIR model present contrasting results if they are
modified. We can see in Graph 4 that the Sp line maintains itself at the same position throughout the entire
graph. The IP in this figure represents a steep negative slope that decreases since day 1. On the other hand,
RP shows, in general, a more gradual and subtle change, in the contrary direction, presenting a positive
gradient, except for the first 10 days which are steeper. Moreover, on day 30, it starts to stabilize itself,
making its changes even more evenly spread. Within the same pattern, graph 5 shows an overall positive
gradual increase in RP, except for the beginning and a sudden drastic negative change to the IP.
Nonetheless, its Sp line disappears, as it might have turned negative due to such tiny values.

Real-Life situations:

The SIR model has always been daily applied whilst investigating epidemics and diseases by the medical
field. Even though daily life can be completely uncertain, the SIR model tends to help in diminishing the
possible errors in the field of medicine. Furthermore, the best real life example that could be stated now is
about the COVID-19, where there are already numerous studies that use the SIR model to explore about this
pandemic's details and duration; revealing the importance of the SIR model on discovering new facts in
medicine. One of the main areas of employment of such is on the discoveries of vaccines, as it predicts the
people who might get infected and the vulnerable population, organizing better the quantity, time and other
factors that need to be considered whilst creating a vaccine. Not only that, but it also aids in being more
efficient by reducing time and money that could be lost in the process.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, I found the SIR model was really interesting and reflected a potent way of predicting alterations
in the population. By gathering such specific factors, it computes essential information that could help save
lives, by predicting vaccines and the spread of a disease. However, it is important to note that it does possess
some limitations. Firstly, it can't be used to model information about all diseases. Secondly, as previously
stated during this investigation, it contains some assumptions such as: it assumes that the population size is
constant and has no changes, it does not track down the matter that deaths can be because o father factors
not only the disease, it supposes the fact that each and every person has the exact same risk of getting
infected as the other and that the country has a homogeneous population. Thus, making it difficult to relate to
the exact real-life situation of a country, turning the process of establishing a final exact veracious value
harder.

Whilst going through this pandemic period of 2020, I got really intrigued upon the process of how this
scientific predictions that get delivered to everyone by the news is worked upon. I became curious also upon
how these suppositions were modeled. Hence, after dealing with this experience of this investigation, I was
capable of understanding deeper upon the "inside scientific medicine" and my interest in the medical field.
Moreover, I could explore by myself how mathematics can be applied in all diverging fields, from engineering
to medicine. Also, I got really intrigued whilst dealing with Euler's method by the fact that just a tiny little value
or anomaly may disconfigure and alter the entire scenery; affecting not only the doctor's study, but maybe
also an entire population. Overall, this work has led me to dig deeper upon the current relevant pandemic
situation, even though the chosen disease was the Ebola Virus Disease. My enthusiasm for the relationship of
mathematics with other areas was also further extended because of this experience.

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