Stocks vs.

Gold and Silver

SP500 vs. Dow Jones vs. Gold vs. Silver

Zoom 10y 30y 50y 80y 100y All From Jul 10, 1970 To Jul 10, 2020

+ 5000%

+ 4000%

+ 3000%

+ 2000%

+ 1000%

0%

-1000%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Longtermtrends.net

Interpretation
Which was the best investment in the past 30, 50, 80, or 100 years? This chart compares the performance of the S&P
500, the Dow Jones, Gold, and Silver. The Dow Jones is a stock index that includes 30 large publicly traded companies
based in the United States. It is one of the oldest and most-watched indices in the world. The S&P 500 consists of 500
large US companies, it is capitalization-weighted (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationweightedindex.asp),
and it captures approximately 80% (http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500) of available market capitalization. For
these reasons it is more representative of the US stock market than the Dow Jones. Both versions of these indices are
price indices in contrast to total return indices (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/total_return_index.asp). Therefore,
they do not include dividends. Including dividends leads to a very different picture, which is demonstrated in the chart
below.

Data Sources
Recent data
Dow Jones (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA)
S&P 500 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500)
Gold prices (https://www.quandl.com/data/LBMA/GOLD)
Silver prices (https://www.quandl.com/data/LBMA/SILVER)
 Historical data
Dow Jones (https://www.quandl.com/data/BCB/UDJIAD1)
S&P 500 (https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_REAL_PRICE_MONTH)
Gold prices (http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp)
Silver prices (https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart)

Further information
Longermtrends: Dow to Gold ratio since 1792 (/dow-gold-ratio/)
Investopedia: Standard & Poor's 500 Index - S&P 500 (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp500.asp)
Investopedia: Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJIA (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp)

Including Dividends: Total Return Stock Index

Total Return Stock Index vs. Gold & Silver

Zoom 10y 30y 50y 80y 100y All From Jul 10, 1970 To Jul 10, 2020
Wilshire Large-Cap data

+ 10000%

+ 5000%

0%

-5000%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Longtermtrends.net

Interpretation
In contrast to the S&P 500 Price Index and the Dow Jones, the Wilshire Large-Cap is a total return index
(http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/total_return_index.asp), in which all resulting cash payouts (including dividends) are
automatically reinvested back into the fund itself. Therefore, it includes all capital gains and it allows for an accurate
performance comparison with Gold and Silver.
Unfortunately, the Wilshire Large-Cap only dates back to 1978. For this reason I calculated
(https://www.dropbox.com/s/dgwp8zw3zxpx7q8/SP500%20Total%20Return.xlsx?dl=0) the S&P 500 Total Return from
1871 until 1977 based on Robert Shiller's data (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/chapt26.xlsx) and added it to the
Wilshire index. Both indices are very similar. While the S&P 500 includes 500 companies, the Wilshire Large-Cap includes
750 companies. Both indices are capitalization-weighted
(http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationweightedindex.asp) and both are considered benchmarks for large-cap
stocks.

Data Sources
Online Data Robert Shiller: long term stock, bond, interest rate and consumption data
(http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/chapt26.xlsx)
Excel Calculation for the S&P 500 Total Return since 1871
(https://www.dropbox.com/s/dgwp8zw3zxpx7q8/SP500%20Total%20Return.xlsx?dl=0)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Wilshire US Large-Cap Total Market Index
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WILLLRGCAP)

Further information
Robert Shiller's online data collection (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm)
Index Basics: Calculating an Index’s Total Return (https://www.indexologyblog.com/2017/02/07/index-basics-
calculating-an-indexs-total-return/)
Wilshire: Wilshire US Large-Cap Index (https://wilshire.com/indexes/wilshire-us-style-indexes/wilshire-us-large-cap-
index)

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