UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA – UNAD

 
Post-task - Final evaluation of the course
 
Student
MARIA LUCILA CORREA
LUIS ENRIQUE GONZALEZ
YOLIMA OREJUELA AGUIAR

 
 
Teacher
NURY YASMIN MORENO
Course
TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES
Group
(212066A_761)
 
 
 
 
BOGOTA D.C
22 OF MAY 2020
 
 
AD
 INTRODUCTION

In the development of the guide, we use the results that are achieved with the use of Markov
chains and their probabilities in decision-making that guarantees the development and
continuity of a decision process in production and management problems.
 use of Markov
ment and
 Exercise 1. Decisions under a risk environment:

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to manufacture a new
demand of the product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions of pesos.

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVP
to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand. A test market study of pote
relevant conditional probabilities are:

a. What is the expected value of market research information?

b. What is the efficiency of the information?

TABLE 1. Decision pocess for the commercializtion of the produc

Demand low- Low average-

Decision alternative
utilty utility demand

Manufacture 35 37
Subcontract 33 35
Buy 38 40
Lease 40 42
Probabilities=1 0.23 0.21
 DECISION TREE

Manufacture

Subcontract

DECISION Buy

Lease
 Lease

VEsIP 42.41
The recommendation is to manufacture products while generating

VEIP= |VEcIP-VEsIP|

VEcIP= 51.15

VEIP= 8.74

BAYES THEOREM

FAVORABLE
Conditional
Previous
State of nature probabilities
probabilities
P(F/sj)
LOW 0.23 0.3
LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.25
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.21
HIGH 0.31 0.55
P(F)

Unfavorable probabilities:

P(D/low) = 0,7
P(D/ low aver) = 0,75
P(D/high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45

UNFAVORABLE
Conditional
Previous
State of nature probabilities
probabilities
P(U/sj)
LOW 0.23 0.7
LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.75
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.79
HIGH 0.31 0.45
P(U)

Favorable 0.34
NODE 1

unfavorable 0.66
 VEcIM 42.40 millons

The value of the sample information is calculated: VEIM= |VEcIM-VEsIM|

VEcIM= 42.40
VEsIM=VEsIP= 42.41
 VEIM= 0.01

Efficiency is calculated: E=VEIM / VEIP

 ironment:

parts must decide whether to manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside supplier. The profits depend
, in millions of pesos.

d the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respo
timate of the demand. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) conditi

P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

P(F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(F/high medium) = 0,21 P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

ket research information?

mation?

for the commercializtion of the product

High Medium- utility

High demand utility
Demand

38 40
36 38
41 43
43 44
0.25 0.31
 PROBABILITY
LOW
0.23
Node 1 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 2 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 3 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 4 LOW AVERAGE
 0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

millons

to manufacture products while generating a payment of $ 42,41 million. that is pending by suppliers

According to the value obtained for VEIP, it is suggested

millions value, and the difference is 8,74 million. With informatio

millions

P(F/low) = 0,3
P(F/low average) = 0,25
P(F/high medium) = 0,21
P(F/high) = 0,55

FAVORABLE
Subsequent probabilities
Joint probabilities P(Fnsj)
P(sj/F)
0.07 0.20
0.05 0.15
0.05 0.15
 0.17 0.49
0.34

NFAVORABLE
Subsequent probabilities
Joint probabilities P(Unsj)
P(sj/U)
0.16 0.25
0.16 0.24
0.20 0.30
0.14 0.21
0.66

Manufacture Node 4

Node 2 Subcontract node 5

 Buy Node 6

Lease Node 7

Manufacture Node 9

node 2 Subcontract Node 10

 Buy Node 11

Lease Node 12

: VEIM= |VEcIM-VEsIM|

The fact that the VEIM is 0,1 means that with or without sample informatio
m an outside supplier. The profits depend on the

mation (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond: Use EVPI

a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The
DEMAND
35 8.05

37 7.77

38 9.5

40 12.4

33 7.59

35 7.35

36 9

38 11.78

38 8.74

40 8.4

41 10.25

43 13.33

40 9.2

42 8.82
 42 8.82

43 10.75

44 13.64

pending by suppliers

e value obtained for VEIP, it is suggested that the company can improve the supply of demand, since this is a significant
difference is 8,74 million. With information obtained, a profit of 51,15 million is generated, compared to 42,41 millions

P(D/low) = 0,7
P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45
 LOW
35
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
37
0.15 38.24
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.15
HIGH
40
0.49

LOW
33
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
35
0.15
HIGH MEDIUM
36 36.24
0.15
HIGH
38
0.49

LOW
38
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
40
0.15 41.24
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.15
HIGH
43
0.49

LOW
40
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.15 42.74
HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.15
HIGH
44
0.49

LOW
35
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
37
0.24 37.43
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.30
HIGH
40
0.21

LOW
33
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
35
0.24
HIGH MEDIUM
36 35.43
0.30
 HIGH
38
0.21

LOW
38
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
40
0.24 40.43
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.30
HIGH
43
0.21

LOW
40
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.24 42.22
HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.30
HIGH
44
0.21

s that with or without sample information the same performance is obtained.

37.72

35.72

40.72 42.41

42.41
42.41
42.74

42.40
42.22
Exercise 1. Decisions under a risk environment

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to manufact
buys it from an outside supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product. Table 10 sho

Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of natura

Decision alternativa Demand low

Demand low- High Medium
average - utility
utility demand utility demand

Manufacture 35 37 38
Subcontract 33 35 36
Buy 38 40 41
Lease 40 42 43
Probabilities 0.23 0.21 0.25

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EV
Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U
probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

P(F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(F/high medium) = 0,21 P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

DECISION TREE

node 2
Manufacture
 node 3
Subcontract

DECISION

node 4
Buy

node 5
Lease

VEsIP 42.41 millones

The recommended decision is to manufacture while waiting for a payment of $42,41 millones.

VEIP= |VEcIP-VEsIP|

VEcIP= 51.15 millions

VEIP= 8.74 millions

 BAYES THEOREM

P(F/low) = 0,3
P(F/low average) = 0,25
P(F/high medium) = 0,21
P(F/high) = 0,55

Favorable probabilities:

P(F/low) = 0,3
P(F/low average) = 0,25
P(F/high medium) = 0,21
P(F/high) = 0,55

FAVORABLE

Previous Conditional Joint probabilities

State of nature
probabilities probabilities P(F/sj) P(Fnsj)

LOW 0.23 0.3 0.07

LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.25 0.05
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.21 0.05
HIGH 0.31 0.55 0.17
P(F) 0.34

Unfavorable probabilities:

P(D/low) = 0,7
P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45

UNFAVORABLE

Previous Conditional Joint probabilities

State of nature
probabilities probabilities P(U/sj) P(Unsj)

LOW 0.23 0.7 0.16

LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.75 0.16
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.79 0.20
HIGH 0.31 0.45 0.14
P(U) 0.66
 Favorable 0.34 node 2

NODE 1
 Desfavorable 0.66 node 2

VEcIM 42.41 millones

The value of the sample information is calculated: VEIM= |VEcIM-VEsIM|

VEcIM= 42.41
VEsIM=VEsIP= 42.41

VEIM= 0.00

Efficiency is calculated: E=VEIM / VEIP

E= 0%
st decide whether to manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it
d of the product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions of pesos.

f the product
a

Demand High -
utility

40
38
43
44
0.31

d Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample

ate of the demand.

t a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional

P(D/low) = 0,7
D/ low average) = 0,75
D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45

PROBABILIDAD DEMANDA
LOW
35 8.05
0.23
LOW AVERAGE
37 7.77 37.72
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
38 9.5
0.25
HIGH
40 12.4
0.31
 LOW
33 7.59
0.23
LOW AVERAGE
35 7.35 35.72
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
36 9
0.25
HIGH
38 11.78
0.31

LOW
38 8.74
0.23
LOW AVERAGE
40 8.4 40.72
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
41 10.25
0.25
HIGH
43 13.33
0.31

LOW
40 9.2
0.23
LOW AVERAGE
42 8.82 42.41
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
43 10.75
0.25
HIGH
44 13.64
0.31

ent of $42,41 millones.

Depending on the value chosen for the VEIP, it can be suggested that the company should try
to obtain a better estimate of demand, as this is a very significant value, since the difference is
8,74 million. With perfect information, a profit of 51,15 million would be obtained, as opposed
to 42,41 million without perfect information.
 Depending on the value chosen for the VEIP, it can be suggested that the company should try
to obtain a better estimate of demand, as this is a very significant value, since the difference is
8,74 million. With perfect information, a profit of 51,15 million would be obtained, as opposed
to 42,41 million without perfect information.

P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
/high medium) = 0,21 P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

Subsequent
probabilities P(sj/F)

0.20
0.15
0.15
0.49

Subsequent
probabilities
P(sj/U)
0.25
0.24
0.30
0.21
 LOW
35
0.20
Manufacture node 4 LOW AVERAGE
37
0.15
38.24
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.15
HIGH
40
0.49

LOW
33
0.20
Subcontract node 5 LOW AVERAGE
35
0.15
HIGH MEDIUM
36 36.24
0.15
HIGH
38
0.49

LOW
38
0.20
Buy node 6 LOW AVERAGE
40
0.15
41.24
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.15
HIGH
43
0.49

LOW
40
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.15
42.74
Lease node 7 HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.15
HIGH
44
0.49

LOW
35
0.25
Manufacture node 9 LOW AVERAGE
37
0.24
37.45
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.30
HIGH
40
0.21

LOW
33
0.25
Subcontract node 10 LOW AVERAGE
35
0.24
HIGH MEDIUM
36 35.45
0.30
HIGH
38
0.21

LOW
38
0.25
Buy node 11 LOW AVERAGE
40
0.24
40.45
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.30
HIGH
43
0.21

LOW
40
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.24
42.24
Lease node 12 HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.30
HIGH
44
0.21
The fact that the VEIM is zero means that with or without sample information the
same performance is obtained.
42.41
42.74

42.41
42.24
 Exercise 1. Decisions under a risk environment:

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to manufacture a new
demand of the product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions of pesos.

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVP
to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand. A test market study of pote
relevant conditional probabilities are:

a. What is the expected value of market research information?

b. What is the efficiency of the information?

TABLE 1. Decision pocess for the commercializtion of the produc

Demand low- Low average-

Decision alternative
utilty utility demand

Manufacture 35 37
Subcontract 33 35
Buy 38 40
Lease 40 42
Probabilities=1 0.23 0.21
 DECISION TREE

Manufacture

Subcontract

DECISION Buy

Lease
 VEsIP 42.41
The recommendation is to manufacture products while generating

VEIP= |VEcIP-VEsIP|

VEcIP= 51.15

VEIP= 8.74

BAYES THEOREM

FAVORABLE
Conditional
Previous
State of nature probabilities
probabilities
P(F/sj)
LOW 0.23 0.3
LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.25
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.21
HIGH 0.31 0.55
P(F)

Unfavorable probabilities:

P(D/low) = 0,7
P(D/ low aver) = 0,75
P(D/high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45

UNFAVORABLE
 Conditional
Previous
State of nature probabilities
probabilities
P(U/sj)
LOW 0.23 0.7
LOW AVERAGE 0.21 0.75
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.79
HIGH 0.31 0.45
P(U)

Favorable 0.34
NODE 1

unfavorable 0.66
 VEcIM 42.40 millons

The value of the sample information is calculated: VEIM= |VEcIM-VEsIM|

VEcIM= 42.40
VEsIM=VEsIP= 42.41

VEIM= 0.01

Efficiency is calculated: E=VEIM / VEIP

ironment:

parts must decide whether to manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside supplier. The profits depend
, in millions of pesos.

d the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respo
timate of the demand. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) conditi

P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

P(F/low average) = 0,25 P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(F/high medium) = 0,21 P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

et research information?
ation?

for the commercializtion of the product

High Medium- utility

High demand utility
Demand

38 40
36 38
41 43
43 44
0.25 0.31
 PROBABILITY
LOW
0.23
Node 1 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 2 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 3 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31

LOW
0.23
Node 4 LOW AVERAGE
0.21
HIGH MEDIUM
0.25
HIGH
0.31
 millons

to manufacture products while generating a payment of $ 42,41 million. that is pending by suppliers

According to the value obtained for VEIP, it is sug

millions this is a significant value, and the difference is
generated
millions

P(F/low) = 0,3
P(F/low average) = 0,25
P(F/high medium) = 0,21
P(F/high) = 0,55

FAVORABLE
Subsequent probabilities
Joint probabilities P(Fnsj)
P(sj/F)
0.07 0.20
0.05 0.15
0.05 0.15
0.17 0.49
0.34

NFAVORABLE
 Subsequent probabilities
Joint probabilities P(Unsj)
P(sj/U)
0.16 0.25
0.16 0.24
0.20 0.30
0.14 0.21
0.66

Manufacture Node 4

Node 2 Subcontract node 5

Buy Node 6
 Lease Node 7

Manufacture Node 9

node 2 Subcontract Node 10

Buy Node 11
 Lease Node 12

: VEIM= |VEcIM-VEsIM|

The fact that the VEIM is 0,1 means that with or without sample informa
m an outside supplier. The profits depend on the

mation (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond: Use EVPI

a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The
DEMAND
35 8.05

37 7.77

38 9.5

40 12.4

33 7.59

35 7.35

36 9

38 11.78

38 8.74

40 8.4

41 10.25

43 13.33

40 9.2

42 8.82

43 10.75

44 13.64
pending by suppliers

e value obtained for VEIP, it is suggested that the company can improve the supply of demand, since
ificant value, and the difference is 8,74 million. With information obtained, a profit of 51,15 million is
generated, compared to 42,41 millions

P(D/low) = 0,7
P(D/ low average) = 0,75
P(D/ high medium) = 0,79
P(D/high) = 0,45
 LOW
35
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
37
0.15
38.24
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.15
HIGH
40
0.49

LOW
33
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
35
0.15
HIGH MEDIUM
36 36.24
0.15
HIGH
38
0.49

LOW
38
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
40
0.15
41.24
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.15
HIGH
43
0.49

LOW
40
0.20
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.15
42.74
 42.74
HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.15
HIGH
44
0.49

LOW
35
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
37
0.24
37.43
HIGH MEDIUM
38
0.30
HIGH
40
0.21

LOW
33
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
35
0.24
HIGH MEDIUM
36 35.43
0.30
HIGH
38
0.21

LOW
38
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
40
0.24
40.43
HIGH MEDIUM
41
0.30
HIGH
43
0.21
 LOW
40
0.25
LOW AVERAGE
42
0.24
42.22
HIGH MEDIUM
43
0.30
HIGH
44
0.21

hat with or without sample information the same performance is obtained.

37.72

35.72

40.72 42.41

42.41
42.74
 42.40

42.22
 Exercise 2. Decision in uncertainty:

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its workshop
decided according to several alternatives presented by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate
workshop. The decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will ar
machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs in millions of curren

Event

Fits
Alternative Does not fit
acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945

Technology 3 810 860

Technology 4 780 810

Table 2. Uncertainty adaptation new technology

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the

LAPLACE'S CRITERION

All events are considered to be equally probable.

 p(j) 1/4

Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 805
Technology 2 905
Technology 3 810
Technology 4 780

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit a

WALD'S OR PESSIMIST'S APPROACH

He reasons himself about the worst situation that can arise.

Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 805
Technology 2 905
Technology 3 810
Technology 4 780

Technology 1 is selected as it has the highest profit a

OPTIMISTIC APPROACH

He reasons himself about the best situation that can arise.

 Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 805
Technology 2 905
Technology 3 810
Technology 4 780

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit a

HURWICZ APPROACH

optimistic coefficient=
pessimist coefficient=

Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 805
Technology 2 905
Technology 3 810
Technology 4 780

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit a

SAVAGE APPROACH

Se transforma la matriz de resultados en una matriz de errores. De es

de oportunidad en el que incurre por tomar una decisión equivocada.
cada situación que se puede presentar.

Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 805
Technology 2 905
Technology 3 810
Technology 4 780

Alternative Does not fit

Technology 1 100
Technology 2 0
Technology 3 95
Technology 4 125

Low= 90

Technology 2 is selected with $90.

In most of the methods evaluated, Technology 2

repeated, so it was decided to work with this t
chnology to carry out its workshop work. The purchase will be
eller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implementation in the
t the cost of adaptation that will arise after acquiring the
ows the costs in millions of currency units per technology.

vent

Fits
Fits well
successfully

820 860

840 820

880 900

800 910

adaptation new technology

emises to be purchased, using the methods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE

ally probable.
 1/4 1/4 1/4
Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well VM
y
815 820 860 825
945 840 820 877.5
860 880 900 862.5
810 800 910 825

Higher gain 877.5

ected as it has the highest profit at $877,5

situation that can arise.

Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well VM
y
815 820 860 805
945 840 820 820
860 880 900 810
810 800 910 780

Higher gain 820

ected as it has the highest profit at $820.

ituation that can arise.

 Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well VM
y
815 820 860 860
945 840 820 945
860 880 900 900
810 800 910 910

Higher gain 945

ected as it has the highest profit at $945

tic coefficient= 0.7

ist coefficient= 0.3

Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well VM
y
815 820 860 843.5
945 840 820 907.5
860 880 900 873
810 800 910 871

Higher gain 907.5

ected as it has the highest profit at $907,5.

os en una matriz de errores. De esta manera, el decisor puede evaluar fácilmente el coste
r tomar una decisión equivocada. Para ello hay que determinar el mejor resultado para
ntar.

Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well
y
815 820 860
945 840 820
860 880 900
810 800 910

Fits
Fits acceptably successfull Fits well VM
y
130 60 50 130
0 40 90 90
85 0 10 95
135 80 0 135

ected with $90.

methods evaluated, Technology 2 was the most

o it was decided to work with this technology
 Exercise 2. Decision in uncertainty

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-347), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications P
Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its workshop work. The purcha
be decided according to several alternatives presented by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implemen
the workshop. The decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after acqu
machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 2 shows the costs in millions of currency units per technol

Event

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit acceptably successfully Fits well

Technology 1 805 815 820 860

Technology 2 905 945 840 820
Technology 3 810 860 880 900
Technology 4 780 810 800 910

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AN
SAVAGE

LAPLACE'S CRITERION

All events are considered to be equally probable.

p(j) 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit Fits well VM
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 805 815 820 860 825

Technology 2 905 945 840 820 877.5
 Technology 3 810 860 880 900 862.5
Technology 4 780 810 800 910 825

Higher gain 877.5

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $877,5

WALD'S OR PESSIMIST'S APPROACH

He reasons himself about the worst situation that can arise.

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit acceptably successfully Fits well VM

Technology 1 805 815 820 860 805

Technology 2 905 945 840 820 820
Technology 3 810 860 880 900 810
Technology 4 780 810 800 910 780

Higher gain 820

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $820.

OPTIMISTIC APPROACH

He reasons himself about the best situation that can arise.

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit Fits well VM
acceptably successfully
 Technology 1 805 815 820 860 860
Technology 2 905 945 840 820 945
Technology 3 810 860 880 900 900
Technology 4 780 810 800 910 910

Higher gain 945

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $945.

HURWICZ APPROACH

optimistic coefficient= 0.7

pessimist coefficient= 0.3

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit acceptably successfully Fits well VM

Technology 1 805 815 820 860 843.5

Technology 2 905 945 840 820 907.5
Technology 3 810 860 880 900 873
Technology 4 780 810 800 910 871

Higher gain 907.5

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $907,5.

SAVAGE APPROACH

The results matrix is transformed into an error matrix. In this way, the decision-maker can easily evaluate the op
cost incurred by making a wrong decision. To do this, the best result must be determined for each situation that
arise.
 Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit Fits well
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 805 815 820 860

Technology 2 905 945 840 820
Technology 3 810 860 880 900
Technology 4 780 810 800 910

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit Fits well VM
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 100 130 60 50 130

Technology 2 0 0 40 90 90
Technology 3 95 85 0 10 95
Technology 4 125 135 80 0 135

Low= 90

Technology 2 is selected with $90.

In most of the methods evaluated, Technology 2 was the most repeated, so it was decided to work
technology.
w Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v.

s workshop work. The purchase will

his to facilitate the implementation in
tion that will arise after acquiring the
of currency units per technology.

APLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND

er can easily evaluate the opportunity
mined for each situation that may
d, so it was decided to work with this
 Exercise 2. Decision in uncertainty:

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its workshop work. The p
decided according to several alternatives presented by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implem
workshop. The decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after acq
machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs in millions of currency units per

Event

Fits Fits
Alternative Does not fit
acceptably successfully

Technology 1 805 815 820

Technology 2 905 945 840

Technology 3 810 860 880

Technology 4 780 810 800

Table 2. Uncertainty adaptation new technology

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods o

LAPLACE'S CRITERION

All events are considered to be equally probable.

 p(j) 1/4 1/4

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945
Technology 3 810 860
Technology 4 780 810

Higher gain

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $877,5

WALD'S OR PESSIMIST'S APPROACH

He reasons himself about the worst situation that can arise.

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945
Technology 3 810 860
Technology 4 780 810

Higher gain

Technology 1 is selected as it has the highest profit at $820.

OPTIMISTIC APPROACH

He reasons himself about the best situation that can arise.

 Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945
Technology 3 810 860
Technology 4 780 810

Higher gain

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $945

HURWICZ APPROACH

optimistic coefficient=
pessimist coefficient=

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945
Technology 3 810 860
Technology 4 780 810

Higher gain

Technology 2 is selected as it has the highest profit at $907,5.

SAVAGE APPROACH
Se transforma la matriz de resultados en una matriz de errores. De esta manera,
de oportunidad en el que incurre por tomar una decisión equivocada. Para ello ha
cada situación que se puede presentar.

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 805 815

Technology 2 905 945
Technology 3 810 860
Technology 4 780 810

Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably

Technology 1 100 130

Technology 2 0 0
Technology 3 95 85
Technology 4 125 135

Low= 90

Technology 2 is selected with $90.

In most of the methods evaluated, Technology 2 was the mos

repeated, so it was decided to work with this technology
out its workshop work. The purchase will be
, this to facilitate the implementation in the
ation that will arise after acquiring the
illions of currency units per technology.

Fits well

860

820

900

910

hased, using the methods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE

 1/4 1/4
Fits
successfull Fits well VM
y
820 860 825
840 820 877.5
880 900 862.5
800 910 825

877.5

highest profit at $877,5

Fits
successfull Fits well VM
y
820 860 805
840 820 820
880 900 810
800 910 780

820

highest profit at $820.

rise.
 Fits
successfull Fits well VM
y
820 860 860
840 820 945
880 900 900
800 910 910

945

highest profit at $945

0.7
0.3

Fits
successfull Fits well VM
y
820 860 843.5
840 820 907.5
880 900 873
800 910 871

907.5

highest profit at $907,5.

e errores. De esta manera, el decisor puede evaluar fácilmente el coste
ón equivocada. Para ello hay que determinar el mejor resultado para

Fits
successfull Fits well
y
820 860
840 820
880 900
800 910

Fits
successfull Fits well VM
y
60 50 130
40 90 90
0 10 95
80 0 135

d, Technology 2 was the most

work with this technology
According
What is theto expected
the corresponding
value of market
information
research
in Table
information?
3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expe
Value
Whatofis Sample
the efficiency
Information
of the(EVMI)
information?
and Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI toExercise
determine3.if the
Decision
companyinshould
uncertainty:
try to get a better estimate of the demand.
b.  A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The re
conditional probabilities are:

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65

PLAYER A
78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65

Table 3. Game strategy data

Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using the proposed Ex
the data in table 6.

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

Since the Maximini and Minimax values are not equal, the solution must be calcu
the pure strategies.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.1144149968 0 0.394958 0.490627

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
 PLAYER A
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

P1 0 PLAYER B
P2 0.4098255 PLAYER A 65 82 72 65
P3 0.1279897 78 89 56 89
P4 0 92 86 83 64
P5 0.4621849 89 88 76 67
sum 1 67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

Expected value 77.756302521 85.669037 71.800905 68.996122

MaxZ 74.71

Therefore, after performing the strategy mixes you find that the ch
mation (EVPI) theory, the Expected

vorable (U) condition. The relevant

68
81
72
75
79

e, using the proposed Excel tool, according to

Maximini
68 65
81 56
72 64
75 67
79 59
81

e solution must be calculated by

Q5 sum
0 1

Maximini Expected value MinZ-V

68 65 67.764705882 74.71
81 56 74.70782159
72 64 74.70782159
 75 67 73.071751778
79 59 74.70782159
81

Maximini
68 65
81 56
72 64
75 67
79 59
81

72.89916

ixes you find that the chair point is 74.71. That is, one player will win 74.71 and another 74.71.
 Exercise 6. Optimum solution of two-person games (Theory of games, mixed strategies):

The games represent the latest case of lack of information where intelligent opponents are working in a conflicti
environment. The result is that a very conservative criterion is generally proposed to solve sets of two people an
zero, called minimax - maximin criterion. To determine a fair game, the minimax = maximin, it is necessary to sol
stable strategy through the Solver.

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65 68
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89 81
92 86 83 64 72
89 88 76 67 75
67 59 89 65 79

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using the proposed Excel tool, according
data in table 6.

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65 68
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89 81
92 86 83 64 72
89 88 76 67 75
67 59 89 65 79
Minimax 92 89 89 89 81

Since the Maximini and Minimax values are not equal, the solution must be
calculated by the pure strategies.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
0.114415 0 0.39495798 0.49062702 0

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65 68
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89 81
92 86 83 64 72
89 88 76 67 75
 PLAYER A
67 59 89 65 79
Minimax 92 89 89 89 81

PLAYER B
P1 0 65 82 72 65 68

PLAYER A
P2 0.40982547 78 89 56 89 81
P3 0.12798966 92 86 83 64 72
P4 0 89 88 76 67 75
P5 0.46218487 67 59 89 65 79
suma 1 Minimax 92 89 89 89 81

Valor esperado 74.7078216 74.7504848 74.7078216 74.7078216 78.9237233

MaxZ 74.7078216

Therefore, after performing the strategy mixes you find that the chair point is 74.71. That is, one pla
mes, mixed strategies):

nts are working in a conflicting

solve sets of two people and sum
aximin, it is necessary to solve the

posed Excel tool, according to the

Maximini
65
56
64
67
59

the solution must be

Suma
1

Maximini Vesperado MinZ-V

65 67.7647059 74.7078216
56 74.7078216
64 74.7078216
67 73.0717518
 59 74.7078216

Maximini
65
56
64
67
59

oint is 74.71. That is, one player will win 74.71 and another 74.71.
According
What is theto expected
the corresponding
value of market
information
research
in Table
information?
3 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expe
Value
Whatofis Sample
the efficiency
Information
of the(EVMI)
information?
and Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI toExercise
determine3.if the
Decision
companyinshould
uncertainty:
try to get a better estimate of the demand.
b.  A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The re
conditional probabilities are:

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65

PLAYER A
78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65

Table 3. Game strategy data

Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using the proposed Ex
the data in table 6.

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

Since the Maximini and Minimax values are not equal, the solution must be calcu
the pure strategies.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.1144149968 0 0.394958 0.490627

PLAYER B
65 82 72 65
PLAYER A

78 89 56 89
92 86 83 64
 PLAYER A
89 88 76 67
67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

P1 0 PLAYER B
P2 0.4098255 PLAYER A 65 82 72 65
P3 0.1279897 78 89 56 89
P4 0 92 86 83 64
P5 0.4621849 89 88 76 67
sum 1 67 59 89 65
Minimax 92 89 89 89

Expected value 77.756302521 85.669037 71.800905 68.996122

MaxZ 74.71

Therefore, after performing the strategy mixes you find that the ch
mation (EVPI) theory, the Expected

vorable (U) condition. The relevant

68
81
72
75
79

e, using the proposed Excel tool, according to

Maximini
68 65
81 56
72 64
75 67
79 59
81

e solution must be calculated by

Q5 sum
0 1

Maximini Expected value MinZ-V

68 65 67.764705882 74.71
81 56 74.70782159
72 64 74.70782159
 75 67 73.071751778
79 59 74.70782159
81

Maximini
68 65
81 56
72 64
75 67
79 59
81

72.89916

ixes you find that the chair point is 74.71. That is, one player will win 74.71 and another 74.71.
 Exercise 4. Decision in uncertainty

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be used, using the graphica
Inestimate
order tothedetermine the
strategy and decision
value conditions
of the game in the market,
for the following data: the Game Theory will be used, usin
solution of the type (2 x n) and (m x 2) to estimate the strategy and value of the game for the fo

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to m
x 2.

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy A Strategy B

P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1 P2=1-P1

VE= 28P1+31P2 VE= 31P1+25P2

VE= 28P1+31(1-P1) VE= 31P1+25(1-P1)
VE= -3P1+31 VE= 6P1+25

Si P1=1 VE=28 Si P1=1 VE=31

Si P1=0 VE=31 Si P1=0 VE=25

1 28 1 31
0 31 0 25

strategy A Strategy B Strategy C

35

30

25

20
 strategy A Strategy B Strategy C
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

FOR THE ROW PLAYER

Strategy 1 Strategy 2

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 28Q1+31Q2 VE= 28Q1+27Q2

VE= -3Q1+31 VE= -Q1+27

Q1 VE Q VE
1 28 1 28
0 31 0 27

35

30

25

Strategy 1
20 Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
15
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
 25

Strategy 1
20 Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
15
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to m
x 2.

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy 1 Strategy 2

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 28Q1+31Q2 VE= 28Q1+27Q2

VE= -3Q1+31 VE= -Q1+27

Q1 VE Q VE
1 28 1 28
0 31 0 27

35

30

25

20

15

10
 25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3

Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

FOR THE ROW PLAYER

Strategy A Strategy B

P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1 P2=1-P1

VE= 28P1+31P2 VE= 31P1+25P2

VE= 28P1+31(1-P1) VE= 31P1+25(1-P1)
VE= -3P1+31 VE= 6P1+25

Si P1=1 VE=28 Si P1=1 VE=31

Si P1=0 VE=31 Si P1=0 VE=25

1 28 1 31
0 31 0 25

35

30

25
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Estrategia A Strategy B Strategy C

ncertainty

y will be used, using the graphical solution of the type (2 x n) and (m x 2) to

ame Theory will be used, using the graphical
d value of the game for the following data:

raphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m

Strategy C

P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1

VE= 27P1+29P2
VE= 27P1+29(1-P1)
VE= -2P1+29

Si P1=1 VE=27
Si P1=0 VE=29

1 27
0 29

Strategy A has the most negative slope

Strategy B has the most positive slope
 -3P1+31=6P1+25
9P1=6
P1=2/3

P2=1-2/3
P2=1/3

EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 6P1+25
VE= 29

Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1

Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 31Q1+25Q2 VE= 31Q1+29Q2 VE=

VE= 6Q1+25 VE= 2Q1+29 VE=

Q VE Q VE Q
1 31 1 31 1
0 25 0 29 0

Strategy 1
Strategy 6 has the most negative slope
Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
 Strategy 1
Strategy 2 Strategy 5 has the most positive slope
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5 -4Q1+29=4Q1+27
Strategy 6 8Q1=2
Q1=1/4

P2=1-1/4
P2=3/4

0.9 1 EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 4Q1+27
VE= 29

raphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m

Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1

Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 31Q1+25Q2 VE= 31Q1+29Q2 VE=

VE= 6Q1+25 VE= 2Q1+29 VE=

Q VE Q VE Q
1 31 1 31 1
0 25 0 29 0

Strategy 6 has the most negative slope

Strategy 5 has the most positive slope
 -4Q1+29=4Q1+27
8Q1=2
Q1=1/4

P2=1-1/4
P2=3/4
0.7 0.8 0.9 1

rategy 3 EXPECTED VALUE

rategy 6

VE= 4Q1+27
VE= 29

Strategy C

P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1

VE= 27P1+29P2
VE= 27P1+29(1-P1)
VE= -2P1+29

Si P1=1 VE=27
Si P1=0 VE=29

1 27
0 29
Strategy A has the most negative slope
Strategy B has the most positive slope

-3P1+31=6P1+25
9P1=6
P1=2/3

P2=1-2/3
P2=1/3

EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 6P1+25
VE= 29
 Strategy 6

Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1

31Q1+27Q2 VE= 25Q1+29Q2

4Q1+27 VE= -4Q1+29

VE Q VE
31 1 25
27 0 29
 Strategy 6

Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1

31Q1+27Q2 VE= 25Q1+29Q2

4Q1+27 VE= -4Q1+29

VE Q VE
31 1 25
27 0 29
 Exercise 4. Decision in uncertainty

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be used, using the graphic
type (2 x n) and (m x 2) to estimate the strategy and value of the game for the following data:

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to matrices 2 x n o

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy A Strategy B

P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1 P2=1-P1

VE= 28P1+31P2 VE= 31P1+25P2

VE= 28P1+31(1-P1) VE= 31P1+25(1-P1)
VE= -3P1+31 VE= 6P1+25

Si P1=1 VE=28 Si P1=1 VE=31

Si P1=0 VE=31 Si P1=0 VE=25

1 28 1 31
0 31 0 25

35

30

25

20
Estrategia A
Strategy B
15 Strategy C

10

0
 20
Estrategia A
Strategy B
15 Strategy C

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

FOR THE ROW PLAYER

Strategy 1 Strategy 2

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 28Q1+31Q2 VE= 28Q1+27Q2

VE= -3Q1+31 VE= -Q1+27

Q1 VE Q VE
1 28 1 28
0 31 0 27

35

30

25

Strategy 1
20 Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
15
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
certainty

eory will be used, using the graphical solution of the

r the following data:

l method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Strategy C

P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1

VE= 27P1+29P2
VE= 27P1+29(1-P1)
VE= -2P1+29

Si P1=1 VE=27
Si P1=0 VE=29

1 27
0 29

Strategy A has the most negative slope

Strategy B has the most positive slope

-3P1+31=6P1+25
9P1=6
P1=2/3

P2=1-2/3
 P2=1/3

EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 6P1+25
VE= 29

Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1

Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 31Q1+25Q2 VE= 31Q1+29Q2 VE=

VE= 6Q1+25 VE= 2Q1+29 VE=

Q VE Q VE Q
1 31 1 31 1
0 25 0 29 0

Strategy 1 Strategy 6 has the most negative slope

Strategy 2 Strategy 5 has the most positive slope
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
-4Q1+29=4Q1+27
Strategy 5
Strategy 6 8Q1=2
Q1=1/4

P2=1-1/4
P2=3/4

0.9 1 EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 4Q1+27
VE= 29
 Strategy 6

Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1

31Q1+27Q2 VE= 25Q1+29Q2

4Q1+27 VE= -4Q1+29

VE Q VE
31 1 25
27 0 29
 Exercise 4. Decision in uncertainty

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be used, using the g
Inx order to determine
2) to estimate the decision
the strategy conditions
and value in the
of the game for market, the Game
the following data: Theory will be used, usin
solution of the type (2 x n) and (m x 2) to estimate the strategy and value of the game for the fo

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to m
x 2.

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy A Strategy B

P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1 P2=1-P1

VE= 28P1+31P2 VE= 31P1+25P2

VE= 28P1+31(1-P1) VE= 31P1+25(1-P1)
VE= -3P1+31 VE= 6P1+25

Si P1=1 VE=28 Si P1=1 VE=31

Si P1=0 VE=31 Si P1=0 VE=25

1 28 1 31
0 31 0 25

strategy A Strategy B Strategy C

35

30

25

20
 strategy A Strategy B Strategy C
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

FOR THE ROW PLAYER

Strategy 1 Strategy 2

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 28Q1+31Q2 VE= 28Q1+27Q2

VE= -3Q1+31 VE= -Q1+27

Q1 VE Q VE
1 28 1 28
0 31 0 27

35

30

25

Strategy 1
20 Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
15
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
 25

Strategy 1
20 Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
15
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied to m
x 2.

FOR THE COLUMN PLAYER

Strategy 1 Strategy 2

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 28Q1+31Q2 VE= 28Q1+27Q2

VE= -3Q1+31 VE= -Q1+27

Q1 VE Q VE
1 28 1 28
0 31 0 27

35

30

25

20

15

10
 25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3

Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
I 28 31 27
Player 1
II 31 25 29

FOR THE ROW PLAYER

Strategy A Strategy B

P1+P2=1 P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1 P2=1-P1

VE= 28P1+31P2 VE= 31P1+25P2

VE= 28P1+31(1-P1) VE= 31P1+25(1-P1)
VE= -3P1+31 VE= 6P1+25

Si P1=1 VE=28 Si P1=1 VE=31

Si P1=0 VE=31 Si P1=0 VE=25

1 28 1 31
0 31 0 25

35

30

25
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Estrategia A Strategy B Strategy C

ncertainty

Theory will be used, using the graphical solution of the type (2 x n) and (m
ame
ta: Theory will be used, using the graphical
d value of the game for the following data:

raphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m

Strategy C

P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1

VE= 27P1+29P2
VE= 27P1+29(1-P1)
VE= -2P1+29

Si P1=1 VE=27
Si P1=0 VE=29

1 27
0 29

Strategy A has the most negative slope

Strategy B has the most positive slope
 -3P1+31=6P1+25
9P1=6
P1=2/3

P2=1-2/3
P2=1/3

EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 6P1+25
VE= 29

Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1

Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 31Q1+25Q2 VE= 31Q1+29Q2 VE=

VE= 6Q1+25 VE= 2Q1+29 VE=

Q VE Q VE Q
1 31 1 31 1
0 25 0 29 0

Strategy 1
Strategy 6 has the most negative slope
Strategy 2
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5
Strategy 6
 Strategy 1
Strategy 2 Strategy 5 has the most positive slope
Strategy 3
Strategy 4
Strategy 5 -4Q1+29=4Q1+27
Strategy 6 8Q1=2
Q1=1/4

P2=1-1/4
P2=3/4

0.9 1 EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 4Q1+27
VE= 29

raphical method applied to matrices 2 x n or m

Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5

Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1 Q1+Q2=1

Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1 Q2=1-Q1

VE= 31Q1+25Q2 VE= 31Q1+29Q2 VE=

VE= 6Q1+25 VE= 2Q1+29 VE=

Q VE Q VE Q
1 31 1 31 1
0 25 0 29 0

Strategy 6 has the most negative slope

Strategy 5 has the most positive slope
 -4Q1+29=4Q1+27
8Q1=2
Q1=1/4

P2=1-1/4
P2=3/4
0.7 0.8 0.9 1

rategy 3 EXPECTED VALUE

rategy 6

VE= 4Q1+27
VE= 29

Strategy C

P1+P2=1
P2=1-P1

VE= 27P1+29P2
VE= 27P1+29(1-P1)
VE= -2P1+29

Si P1=1 VE=27
Si P1=0 VE=29

1 27
0 29
Strategy A has the most negative slope
Strategy B has the most positive slope

-3P1+31=6P1+25
9P1=6
P1=2/3

P2=1-2/3
P2=1/3

EXPECTED VALUE

VE= 6P1+25
VE= 29
 Strategy 6

Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1

31Q1+27Q2 VE= 25Q1+29Q2

4Q1+27 VE= -4Q1+29

VE Q VE
31 1 25
27 0 29
 Strategy 6

Q1+Q2=1
Q2=1-Q1

31Q1+27Q2 VE= 25Q1+29Q2

4Q1+27 VE= -4Q1+29

VE Q VE
31 1 25
27 0 29
Exercise 5. Markov decision Exercise:

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you have n
the probabilities are 0.3; If you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be c
the first of the last two years 0.38. The probabilities of the state according to historical data of
 

STATES
E1
E2
E3
Table 6. Transition matrix of Markov c

Find the probability for years 4 and 5 according to the previous

STATES
E1
E2
E3

transition matrix
STATES
E1
E2
E3

E1
0.3

E1
0.216
 E1
0.21295
according to their accident history. If you have not had accidents the last two years
cident in each of the last two years you will be charged 0.32. If you had accidents
ilities of the state according to historical data of three years are:

E1 E2 E3
0.2 0.3 0.5
0.25 0.35 0.4
0.2 0.15 0.65
Table 6. Transition matrix of Markov chains

years 4 and 5 according to the previous data.

E1 E2 E3 total
0.2 0.3 0.5 1
0.25 0.35 0.4 1
0.2 0.15 0.65 1

transition matrix
E1 E2 E3 TOTAL
0.2 0.3 0.5 1
0.25 0.35 0.4 1
0.2 0.15 0.65 1

E2 E3 THIR PERIOD
0.32 0.38

E2 E3 FOURTH
0.259 0.525 PERIOD
 E2 E3
0.32 0.38 FIFTH PERIOD
Exercise 5. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you have not had
accidents the last two years the probabilities are 0.3; If you have had an accident in each of the last
two years you will be charged 0.32. If you had accidents the first of the last two years 0.38. The
probabilities of the state according to historical data of three years are:

STATES E1 E2 E3
E1 0.2 0.3 0.5
E2 0.25 0.35 0.4
E3 0.2 0.15 0.65

Find the probability for years 4 and 5 according to the previous data.

-Initials probabilities

E1 E2 E3
0.3 0.32 0.38

- Probabilities for first period

E1 E2 E3
0.216 0.259 0.525

- Probabilities for second period

E1 E2 E3
0.21295 0.2342 0.55285

- Probabilities for third period

E1 E2 E3
0.21171 0.2287825 0.5595075

- Probabilities for fourth period

E1 E2 E3
 0.211439125 0.227513 0.5610479

- Probabilities for Five period

E1 E2 E3
0.21137565 0.2272185 0.5614059
f you have not had
in each of the last
ears 0.38. The
Exercise 5. Markov decision Exercise:

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you have not had accidents
two years the probabilities are 0.3; If you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged
If you had accidents the first of the last two years 0.38. The probabilities of the state according to historical data
three years are:
 

STATES E1 E2
E1 0.2 0.3
E2 0.25 0.35
E3 0.2 0.15
Table 6. Transition matrix of Markov chains

Find the probability for years 4 and 5 according to the previous data.

STATES E1 E2
E1 0.2 0.3
E2 0.25 0.35
E3 0.2 0.15

transition matrix
STATES E1 E2
E1 0.2 0.3
E2 0.25 0.35
E3 0.2 0.15

E1 E2 E3
0.3 0.32 0.38

E1 E2 E3
0.216 0.259 0.525

E1 E2 E3
0.21295 0.32 0.38
ry. If you have not had accidents the last
ast two years you will be charged 0.32.
state according to historical data of

E3
0.5
0.4
0.65
arkov chains

evious data.

E3 total
0.5 1
0.4 1
0.65 1

E3 TOTAL
0.5 1
0.4 1
0.65 1

THIR PERIOD

FOURTH
PERIOD

FIFTH PERIOD
FIFTH PERIOD
Exercise 6. Use of the practical learning environment.
Collaborative activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for th
Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activit
remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the inco
results table for the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully
Guide for the use of educational resources.

EXCERSICE 1: USE FOR "DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK"

EXCERSICE 2: USE OF "DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY"

EXCERSICE 3: USE OF SOLVER
EXCERSICE 4: USE OF SOLVER

EXCERSICE 5: USE FOR "MATRIX ALGEBRA, AND MARKOV CHAIN"

eos are presented for the use of the
lop the proposed activities,
aborative work, the income and
space you can carefully review the
 BIBLIOGRAFIA

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-347), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications
Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications
Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 383-391), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications
Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 648-665), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications
Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge environment of the course.
Laxmi Publications

Laxmi Publications

Laxmi Publications

Laxmi Publications