Symposium on Infrastructure Development and the Environment 2006

7-8 December 2006, SEAMEO-INNOTECH

University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, PHILIPPINES

THREE-DIMENSIONAL HYDRODYNAMICS SIMULATION OF

MANILA BAY
1 2
Tanuspong POKAVANICH, Kazuo NADAOKA

1
Graduate Student, Dept of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics,
Tokyo Institute of Technology
2
Professor, Dept of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics,
Tokyo Institute of Technology

Abstract: To reconstruct a complex circulation of Manila Bay, the study utilized a three-
dimensional turbulent flow model. The model took into account effects from various
external governing factors including tide, river discharge, solar radiation, and wind. The
mathematical model was calibrated with field survey data obtained in 2001. The simulated
bay current pattern showed a clear combination between barotropic flow driven by ocean
tide and baroclinic flow from stratified system inside the bay. The temporal analysis
showed strong linkage between bay’s hydrodynamics and semi-diurnal tidal component.
The study conducted a lot of sensitivity tests to quantify the magnitude and how each
governing factors contribute to the overall bay circulation. Results suggested that the
strong stratification inside the bay was mainly created by freshwater loads from rivers. The
wind stresses appeared to response for the near-surface freshwater distribution, discharged
from the surrounded rivers.

Key Words: Manila Bay, Hydrodynamics simulation, Three-dimensional model, Bay

circulation, Combined effect flow

1. INTRODUCTION

Manila Bay is a semi-enclosed bay located on the southwestern part of Luzon Island
between latitude 14o15’- 14o85’ and longitude 120o35’- 121o00’ (Figure1). The bay width
varies from 22km at its mouth to maximum of about 60km. Its length is about 53km with
the average depth of 20m. Manila Bay is a very important water body of Philippines and
extensively used for various purposes. The bay receives discharged water from numerous
sources includes 26 river’s catchments (account for about 17,000 km2.), highly polluted
domestic and industrial refused water drained from Metro Manila and Laguna De Bay.
Although M. Prudente et al. (1997) inferred that fish of Manila Bay are still not adversely
affected by heavy metal contamination (i.e. Hg, Pb, Cd), there are plenty of evidences on it
already symptom from too much nutrition load which course euthophication problem. In
the 90s, there used to be a regular occurrence of the planktonic bloom during the southwest
monsoon (IMSWES workshop, 2000). Jacinto et al. (1998) noted that rough estimates of
the discharge of inorganic nutrients into the bay is approximately 40x106 mol/yr of
inorganic P and 600x106 mol/yr of inorganic N. With increasing population and still

1
ineffective waste management, values of waste loading rates are higher today. The coupled
environmental pressure from increasing population and rapid developments of Metro
Manila and the bay’s surrounding provinces urgently ask for a comprehensive study to
better understand it’s hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics.
Manila Bay owns a very narrow mouth so residence time of water inside the Bay is
relatively longer. De Las Alas and Sodusta (1985) simulated the response of Manila Bay to
the quasi-steady forcing by prevailing winds. They concluded that the individual average
wind blow at specific period of the year controlled bay’s circulated gyres differently. There
are Northeasterly winds, with speeds averaging about 5m/s from October to January
(Figure2a); Southeasterly winds, with speeds ranging from 3 to 6m/s from February to
May (Figure2b); and Southwesterly winds, with speeds of 5 to 7 m/s from June to
September (Figure2c). Villanoy and Martin (1997) modeled the bay’s current from the
combined effects of ocean tide and uniformed wind. They suggested a relative importance
between tide and wind induced current to the overall bay circulation. Their tidal-driven 2-
dimensional hydrodynamic indicated that the residual tidal velocities are strongest at the
mouth where it enters the bay north of Corregidor and exits to the South. Moreover, their
results of wind-driven circulation from Southwesterly wind (Figure2d), showed the
existence of two asymmetrical counter-clockwise gyres similar to the works of De Las Alas
and Sodusta (1985), except that the location of convergence a bit deviates to the West.

The bay exhibits a strongest stratification during rainy season from the higher air
temperature and outstanding discharge amount. In contrast, the bay shows a relatively
uniform water column throughout the year (IMSWES workshop, 2000). The evidences on
a temporal and spatial variation of its hydrodynamic governing parameters (e.g. salinity,
temperature and wind) demonstrate a necessity of 3-dimensional modeling (IMSWES
workshop, 2000; Tamura et al., 2003). The realistic simulation should, therefore, be able to
reconstruct the bay’s circulation base on combined driven forces including a density
driven. The present research aimed to study a complex circulation of Manila Bay by
combining a tide-induced current, a density-driven current and a wind-driven current. The
study conducted various numerical experiments to investigate the bay’s 3-dimensional
hydrodynamic characteristics to quantify the roles of each current-induced factor.

2. SIMULATION MODEL

2.1 Governing Equations

A well established three-dimensional turbulence flow model (Delft3D-Flow) from Delft

Hydraulic-Netherlands, was used in this study. The governing equations written in
orthogonal curvilinear co-ordinate (ξ ,η ) are as follows:

Continuity equation
∂ζ 1 ∂ ((d + ζ )UGηη ) 1 ∂ ((d + ζ )VGξξ )
+ + =Q (1)
∂t Gξξ Gηη ∂ξ Gξξ Gηη ∂η

Equation of motions (in ξ -direction)

∂u u ∂u v ∂u ω ∂u uv ∂ Gξξ v2 ∂ Gηη
+ + + + − − fv
∂t Gξξ ∂ξ Gηη ∂η d + ζ ∂σ Gξξ Gηη ∂η Gξξ Gηη ∂ξ

2
 1 1 ∂  ∂u 
=− Pξ + Fξ + ν v  (2)
ρ 0 Gξξ (d + ζ ) ∂σ  ∂σ 
2

Figure1. Manila Bay location, field survey points, Sangley meteorological station,
simulated grid, locations of major ( ) and minor ( ) discharge point.

Figure2. Wind driven circulation model of Manila Bay after De Las Alas and Sodusta

3
 (1985;a-c), and Villanoy and Martin (1997;d). Large arrows indicate wind direction.
(Picture from Fernando P. Siringan et al., 1998)
 1 ∂ 2u 1 ∂ 2 u 
Fξ = ν H  + (3)
 G Gξξ ∂ξ
2
Gηη Gηη ∂η 
2
 ξξ

g ∂ζ d +ζ  ∂ρ ∂σ ∂ρ 
0
1
ρ 0 Gξξ
Pξ =
Gξξ ∂ξ
+g ∫  + dσ ′
ρ 0 Gξξ σ  ∂ξ ∂ξ ∂σ 
(4)

f = 2Ω sin φ (5)

Transport of matters (Sanility&Heat)

∂ ( d + ζ )c
+
1 [
 ∂ Gηη (d + ζ )uc ] + ∂[ G ξξ ]
(d + ζ )vc  ∂ωc
+ λ d ( d + ζ )c − S
 +
∂t Gξξ Gηη  ∂ξ ∂η  ∂σ

d +ζ  ∂  Gηη ∂c  ∂  Gξξ ∂c   1 ∂  ∂c 
=   DH +  DH  +  DV (6)
Gξξ Gηη ∂ξ
   G ∂ξ  ∂η  Gηη ∂η   d + ζ ∂σ  ∂σ 
ξξ 

Equation of state (Eckart,1985)

1000 × (5890 + 38t − 0.375t 2 + 3s )

ρ= , (7)
(1779.5 + 11.25t − 0.0745t 2 − (3.80 + 0.01t ) s ) + 0.6980(5890 + 38t − 0.375t 2 + 3s )

where u and v are the horizontal velocity, ω the vertical velocity, g the gravitational
acceleration, Q the contribution per unit area from discharge and withdrawal of water,
precipitation and evaporation, Pξ the pressure gradients, Fξ the unbalance of horizontal
Raynold’s stresses, fv is the coriolis terms, ν H and ν V are the horizontal and vertical eddy
viscosity, DH and DV are the horizontal and vertical eddy diffusivity, λ d the first order
decay process, S the source and sink terms per unit area due to the discharge, withdrawal
of water and the exchange of heat through the free surface, ρ the water density, s the
salinity, t temperature. The study assumed ν H and DH to be a constant. The ν V and DV
are calculated from the second order k − ε turbulent closure model (Uittenbogaard et al.,
1992). The boundary conditions (in ξ -direction) are written as follows.
At the surface:
ν H ∂u 1 r
= τ s cos(θ ), (8)
H ∂σ σ =0 ρ o
r
τ s = ρ a C d U 102 (9)

At the bottom:

ν H ∂u 1
= τb, (10)
H ∂σ σ = −1 ρo
r r
r gρ o ub ub
τb = 2
, (11)
C3D

4
 g ∆z b
C3 D = ln(1 + 15 ) (12)
κ ks

where τ s and τ b are the shear stress on the water surface and sea bottom, C d the wind
drag coefficient, H the total water depth, ρ a and ρ 0 the air and water density, U 10 the
average wind speed at 10 meter above free surface, θ the angle between wind stress vector
and local direction of the gird line, C3 D the 3D Chezy coefficient, k s the Nikuradse
roughness length. At the water surface, the heat exchange is modeled by taking into
account the separate effects of solar (short wave) and atmospheric (long wave) radiation,
and heat loss due to back radiation, evaporation and convection (Murakami et al., 1985).
The bed stress formulation is related to the current just above the bed. There is no
transported flux across the bottom. At the open and close boundaries, the salinity of
seawater is assumed to be uniform. The water temperature was set to be stepwise that
consisted by two different temperature layers, the warmer above (See table1). There is no
flow through all close boundaries.

2.2 Model Setup and Calibration

The simulation was carried out using a sigma coordinate system with horizontal orthogonal
curvilinear grid. Table1 shows the computation conditions of the hydrodynamic model.
Figure1 shows the horizontal grid system, the locations of river discharge surrounding the
bay, and the field data stations. The meteorological concerned data (e.g. solar radiation, air
temperature, relative humidity, wind) obtained from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical
and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (Figure1 and Figure7). The
simulation continue for two weeks to cover a cycles of neap and spring tide, from 3rd -17th
October, 2001. The model was calibrated against field survey data near the mouth of
Manila Bay of Tamura et al. (2003). Due to the absent of actual fresh water discharge
record, the study assumed the steady discharge condition in all rivers. The river discharges
were treated to be one of the calibrated parameter and was derived from calibration process
to obtain the best matching between field and simulated results. The corresponding river
discharge characteristics are shown in Table1. Figure3 shows the comparison of field data
and modeling after calibration.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

3.1 Combined Effects Circulation

The model was run with the external forcing after spin-up period. Simulated results display
a clear typical estuarine flow, combination of barothophic and baroclinic flow forced by
offshore ocean tide and in-bay stratification, respectively. There is a clear different of
current vector field between the near-surface layer and the lower layer during the interested
period (Figure 4). The freshwater from the surrounding river flows out from the bay in the
upper layers while the higher density water (cooler and more salinity contain) enters in the
lower layer (Figure 6). The upper layer outflow is restricted to flow out from the bay
during flood and high tide, however being accelerated during ebb and low tide. The water
level distribution indicates the slightly increase of tidal wave magnitude toward the bay
head end with the maximum tidal range near Pampanga bay. This fact affects the tidal

5
wave shoaling effect on the gentle smooth slope. Figure 5 shows the overall upper and
lower layer residual current, distribution of salinity and water temperature. It seems that
the submerged current supplies the cool water concentrate near the left bank and
correspondingly creates a big clockwise gyre inside the bay. The circulation also reflects to
the overall temperature distribution in which the water is warmer along the north to
southwest bank where the water depth also relatively shallower. The near surface salinity
distribution skew clock-wisely follow the upper layer mean flow. However, the low salinity
water appears to concentrate more on the west border close to the source of major
freshwater discharging sites. With the combined effect of fresh water discharge and
periodic solar radiation, it is seen that, water column stratification pronounces more toward
the bay head end. The fluctuation of water temperature also shows the higher in magnitude
there (Figure 7).

Table1: Computational conditions of the hydrodynamic model.

Contents
Model Area
Horizontal meshes
Vertical Layers
Sea level
Meteorological condition
River discharge conditions
Horizontal eddy viscosity and
diffusivity
Vertical eddy viscosity and
diffusivity
Background vertical eddy
viscosity and diffusivity
Bed roughness
Sea surface roughness
Calculation period
Selected Value
Approx. 5500 Sq.km.
115 * 62 Grid (see Figure1)
15 layers (non-uniform)
Ocean tide model (Matsumoto et al., 2000)
Sangley meteorological station (see Figure1)
5 major rivers and 19 minor rivers with assume
constant salinity (0 ppt) and water temperature (29.5
Celsius). Discharge magnitude is calibrated basing on
field investigation (C.L.Villanoy et al., 2005)
[Pampanga 120, Bulacn-Meycauyan 180, Balanga
60, Pasig 90, Minor rivers 10] unit: m3/s
10 m2/s and 5 m2/s
k − ε model
0.0001 m2/s and 0.00005 m2/s
Manning 0.03
Large and Pond (1981)
15 days

6
 Figure3. Comparison between field survey and simulation of water level at station AW,
cross-sectional horizontal velocities, salinity and water temperature during Ebb and Flood.

Figure4. Simulated halocline, thermocline and the corresponding two-layers circulation.

20 cm/s 20 cm/s 7
 B

B
Upper layer Lower layer

Temperature Salinity (ppt)

Figure5. The upper and lower 25-hours average mean flow and resultant surface water
temperature and salinity distribution.

3.2 Semi-diurnal Tide Dependency

Tidal currents play a dominated role controlling the back and forth movement of water
parcel in coastal bays in which they show strong relation with the moving up and down of
sea level. Manila bay hydrodynamic is also greatly influenced by mixed-tide offshore
fluctuation composing of M2, S2 semi-diurnal and O1, K1 diurnal tidal constituent. Their
magnitudes are 0.16, 0.06, 0.21, 0.25 meter respectively. Generally, sea level oscillation
pattern produces similar tidal current pattern with magnitude and phase difference. In this
study, the simulation results suggested differently. Figure 7 shows relationship of the bay

8
 water level with magnitude principle flow velocity at three points (positions show in
Figure 6) in the bay. The analysis shows that the strongest current does not occur during
the highest sea level oscillation (spring tide) but neap tide. Moreover, the semi-diurnal
signal of water movement appears during the diurnal tidal period. This fact has once been
reported by C.L.Villanoy and O.C.Cabrera (2005) from their field work at the mouth of
Pampanga river. The simulation results suggest the important of semi-diurnal tidal
component to the hydrodynamic of Manila bay. The discrepancy of tides and tidal currents
could be attributed to the geophysical feature with small opening to the sea of the bay. The
narrow mouth may have screened the diurnal component of the tide causing the bay
hydrodynamic to exhibit more semidiurnal properties.

0.6

0.4

0.2
0.6
0
0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0.6
0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.6
0.4
-0.2

0.2
-0.4

-0.6
0
t
Upper layer
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2
-0.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Lower layer
-0.4 Unit: meter/sec
-0.6

Figure6. Scatter plot of modeled North and East velocity components showing non-zero
residual current of upper and lower layer.

3.3 Separated Contribution from Each Hydrodynamic Driven Factors

In general coastal sea, the tidal current seems to govern the short-term hydrodynamic
fluctuations which are classified into two types; barotropic and baroclinic. A barotropic
circulation is seen in the case where there is no stratification, the same tidal current flows
in the upper and lower layers. A baroclinic response is seen in the case where the
stratification is developed, the direction of the tidal current in the lower layer is opposite to
that of upper layer. Apart from tidal current, residual flow plays a more important role for
long-term material transport in the coastal sea. The main components of residual flow in
the coastal sea are tide-induced residual current, wind-driven current and density-driven
current (T.Yanagi, 1999). This study aim to quantify the influent of each major governing
factors (i.e. tides, low salinity of freshwater, water temperature changes and surface wind
stresses) to the overall bay circulation by the numerical experiment. Based on 4 different
running scenarios, in which each governing factors are separately applied, the study
derived the resultant velocity fields of the instantaneous flow (snapshot at ebbing) and
mean flow (25hour averaged). Figure8 and Figure9 illustrate the resultant velocity field in
the upper and lower layers, showing the instantaneous and mean flow respectively.
WATER LEVEL
0.6
0.4 Actual Water level Semi-diurnal Comp.

0.2
meter

0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
9
Date

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

PRINCIPLE FLOW VELOCITY: MIDBAY

0.6
Actual flow - Submerged flow Actual flow - Surface flow
 Figure7. Temporal changes in the upper and lower layer hydrodynamic characteristics of
Manila Bay.
Figures show a mutual interaction between tide and density induced current that appears to
be a major contributed factor controlling a two layers back and forth flow pattern of the
bay. However the similar control mechanism can not be seen in the mean flow analysis.

10
The tidal residual current seems to be minimal compare to other factor. Salinity difference
creates an opposite velocity field between the upper and lower layer. The similar pattern in
both instantaneous and mean salinity-induced flow reveal the important of it to the short
and long-term transport of matter inside the bay. Moreover, comparing Figure9 and
Figure5, the sea saltiness may responsible for the overall clockwise circulation near the
bay head end. Minimal temperature-induced current can be noticed at any timescale and
seem to limit to the area close to the bay mouth. With the 5 m/s Northeasterly wind (the
prevailing wind from December to January, F.P.Siringan (1998)), it appears that the
corresponded current to the wind direction is limited to the near surface layer. Wind driven
current also promotes a bay-ward flow in the lower layer. Note that, the present model
yields the lower layer wind-induced current with a good agreement to the wind driven
circulation model of De Alas Alas (1985) (Figure9 and Figure2). The additional sensitivity
tests of steady-uniform wind blow from different directions are performed to confirm the
influent of wind of the overall fresh water distribution inside the bay. Figure10 compare
the effect wind blow at 3 m/s (the average magnitude from Sangley station) from North-
West (NW), North-East (NE), South-East (SE) and South-West (SW) to the overall bay
salinity distribution. However reminding that, the actual wind field inside the bay showed a
strong fluctuation in both time and space (Tamura el al, 2003).

4. CONCLUSION

The three dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of Manila Bay which has taken into
account the combine effects of barothophic and baroclinic circulation is established. The
simulated outcome suggests that Manila Bay hydrodynamic nature is strongly controlled
by the integrated effect from various external factors i.e. offshore tidal fluctuation, river
discharges, water temperature change from solar radiation, and wind driven current. Mean
flow analysis suggests that the bay might probably be supplied with nutrient as well as
sediment from the South China sea as there is a clear submerged residual flow toward the
bay. To achieve the more realistic simulation of Manila bay, the authors recommend to
gather good set of comprehensive river discharge and wind data. The desired data set
should contain both temporal and spatial information.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to express sincere thanks to Dr. C.L.Villanoy and O.C.Cabrera and
members of Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines for their useful
references and guided data for the Manila bay’s river discharges. Thanks to Dr.
F.P.Siringan, National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines for
his valuable discussions. Acknowledge is also due to the TokyoTech International Research
Course for Environment 2004 to provide the author a one-year research opportunity
making possible this study.

UPPER LAYER

11
 Figure8. Resultant instantaneous velocity fields driven by separate contribution from
different factor.

UPPER LAYER

10 cm/sec

LOWER LAYER

TIDES SALINITY TEMPERATURE WINDS

Figure9. Resultant residual velocity fields (mean current) driven by separate contribution
from different factor.

12
 Figure10. Near surface salinity distribution corresponding to the different steady and
3 m/s uniform wind condition. The darker color indicates the higher salinity water.

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