Factors restricting Pakistan to shift on

renewable energy sources

Introduction:
Pakistan is the sixth most Populus country in the world. Its recent population estimates are more than
220 million. Pakistan is an agriculture bases semi industrialized economy. Pakistan is ranked among 10
largest labor markets globally. However, owing to its large inequalities, 21% of its population lives under
the poverty line.

Producing adequate and cheap energy for such a huge population is a challenge for developing counties
like Pakistan. The installed capacity of electricity generation in Pakistan is 35,972 Megawatts (April
2020). This reflects a growth of 7.5% from last year at same time (Economic Survey 2019-20). Pakistan
has a significant over reliance on thermal electricity. Electricity produced from Gas and Re-gasified
liquified natural Gas are considered as cheaper energy. The economic survey 2019-20 states that
Pakistan has increased its share of hydroelectric power from 25.8% to 30% in this period. On the other
hand, electricity production from thermal sources have now a reduced share of 58.4% (compared to
63%) in the similar period last year. Nuclear electricity has achieved a new high of 8.2% of total
electricity production in the country. Government is putting considerable efforts on the development of
Thar Coal fields. Thar coal field has the larges coal reservoir in Pakistan. Numerous coal fired power
plants are under construction in this area.

However, in the same period, share of energy produced from renewable energy is dropped. Given the
situation of energy shortfall that ranges from 2000Megawatts in peak season, Renewable energy can
play a strong role to meet the energy deficiency. In past, it was ignored. There are multiple reasons for
this. Hydro power is mainly ignored due to large public infrastructure and funding requirements. Wind
and solar were never considered as dependent energy sources in Pakistan. They have a history of
neglection over the past. Although Pakistan has wide stream beds, long rivers and often we undergo
floods owing to lack of water storage resources. In current scenario, renewables can play a vital role to
overcome the deficit of energy in Pakistan. In the recent past, Government has decided to increase
share of renewables in country. Various projects have been considered, feasibility reports are
undergone and a few of them have kick started as well. Government is working on a next 25-year energy
policy. They are putting efforts to increase the share of renewable energy. Government is estimating an
increased share of 25% from renewables in total energy production of the country by 2030. Over a span
of last five years, 937MW from 18 wind power projects, 6 solar power projects of 418MW and 201 MW
from six bagasse projects have achieved their commercial operations dates (COD) and have been able
to supply electricity to the national grid.

Learning from Past and reducing over reliance on thermal, Government has shown interest to diversify
current energy mix of the country. They are keen in utilizing untapped resources of power generation.
Alternate energy boards were set up and given the mandate of exploration venues for investment in
renewables. They were given the authority to implement renewable projects on public and private
sectors. Main purpose of this institution is to develop, adapt, acquire, promotion and disseminate the
renewable energy technology.

Problem Statement
Pakistan Energy Resources

Pakistan is blessed with number of potential energy resources including thermal and non-renewable
energy sources such as coal, gas and oil as well as nuclear source; and renewable energy such as
hydropower, wind, solar, wood and etc. According to World Resources Institute statistics, the current
energy mix of Pakistan shows extreme over-dependency on non-renewable energy sources i.e. Coal,
Thermal and natural gas by 63.37% of the total energy production. This makes up to almost 16 to 17 GW
energy.

Pakistan has renewable energy potential of hundreds of GW from renewable energy sources including
60 GW hydropower, 50 GW wind energy and uncountable potential of solar energy. However, Pakistan
is unfortunately unable to capitalize its renewable energy potential not even up to a quarter of its total
energy production. On the other hand, country wastes billions of dollars every year to import furnace
oil, coal, natural gas and LNG to run its power plant and fulfill energy requirement of country. This has
persistently been putting immense pressure on economic growth of Pakistan as almost total energy
imports makes 50% of Pakistan’s total exports. The situation defines that Pakistan has clearly been
unable to shift over less costly and lucrative renewable energy sources.
Literature Review:

Hydropower

Pakistan hold a rich renewable energy potential. Pakistan can use these resources for power generation
to overcome its deficit. Norther areas of Pakistan have huge glaciers, natural water streams and mighty
Indus river. This long range of glaciers have numerous potential sites for hydro power projects. Central
Pakistan and South of Pakistan have abundant deserts and plains. Pakistan has a usually prolonged
summer making it a suitable choice for solar power. Coastal bed of Pakistan stretches from Gwadar to
Thatha. Southern Pakistan have strong wind potential owing to its coastal areas.

Alternative energy Board is working in coordination with The International Renewable Energy Agency.
With their help Pakistan is focusing on areas where prospects are very high.

The hydropower projects require huge infrastructure cost and time. However, these are considered as
most promising and cheapest sources of power generation. By 2015, The total hydropower generation
capacity was 7,119 Megawatts. Out of this 7,119 Megawatts, 213MW was owned by IPP sector.
Whereas the remaining 6,902 was owned by Water and power development authority (WAPDA). In
recent times, owing to guaranteed returns, private sector is very keen for investment in power sector.
They are also undertaking large scale projects as well. In hydro, 3 large scale projects of 2,010 MW are
under construction by the private sector. However, pace to increase hydropower share in total power
generation has been considerably slow. Pakistan is estimated to have a total hydropower potential of
60GW. Khyber Pakhtunwa and Gilgit Baltistan alone have a potential of 45GW. Owing to mountains
range, Pakistan lacks infrastructure to connect energy, if produced, in those areas to National Grid.
However, Government is working to utilize this potential. Potential sites for 10GW have been identified
in recent past. Government is working on priority on two of such projects namely Diamir Bhasha Dam
and Dasso Dam in Chilas area of Gilgit Baltistan.

Pakistan is geographically on an ideal lay out for hydropower projects. Pakistan has a very strong system
of river and canals. This system stretched from Skardu in Gilgit Baltistan till Thatha in Sindh. These huge
rivers and canals carry a natural potential for installation of run of river hydropower projects on small
level. Pakistan has always been running after large scale projects for hydropower, therefore, these
small-scale projects have been ignored since years. KPK is developing a combined hydropower capacity
of 271MW via eight small projects.

There are many small scall off grid hydropower projects installed on micro level. These projects using
continuous water flowing from mountain tops via pipe and to produce hydropower at town/village level.
On visit to norther areas of Pakistan, these can be observed in many villages. Considered these small
micro level projects, they produce about 130 MW of electricity for the localities.
Solar energy

Wind energy

Theoretical potential for wind power in Pakistan is estimated to be 340GW. This potential does not
consider economic, infrastructure and technical constraints. There are numerous identified sites as
potential of wind power sites from economic and exploitability. All these studies are bases on a satellite
wind map created by The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Owing to reachable technical and
security perspective, Govt has prioritized Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor in the southern region. This
region has a theoretical potential of 50GW. These areas have been chosen due to nearby major load
centers, infrastructure, and ability for the inclusion in National grid. So far so, All the installed wind
power projects in Pakistan lies in this corridor.

To date LOI (Letter of intent) for a combined capacity of 1,747.5MW has been issued via 35 LOIs. Sindh
government has shown keen interest in building and developing this Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor.
They have issued LOIs for a combined capacity of 1,710 MW via 23 LOIs. On the other hand, despite
Punjab being the central area, have identified some potential locations for an aggregate potential of
1,000 MW.
Hypothesis Model
This paper aims to evaluate the factors and constraints for Pakistan to shift over renewable energy
sources. In this regard we have identified following variables for our hypothesis testing

Dependent Variable

Renewable energy sources

Independent Variables

Political influence

Lack of infrastructure

Influential IPPs

Institutional Barriers

Financial Constraints

Poor information
 Political
influence

Lack of
Influential IPPs
infrastructure

Renewable
Energy
Constraints

Institutional Financial
Barriers Constraints

Poor
information