Impacts of Climate Change on Trans-boundary

Water Treaties/ Sharing :

A Case Study of Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

PI: Fahima Sadeqinazhad

US Partner: Devendra M .Amatya, -USDA Forest
Service Center for Forested Wetlands Research 1

3th -July- 2017

 Outline
Ø  Climate Profile for Kabul River
Basin
Ø  Project Background
Ø  Scientific Objectives
Ø  Development Objectives
Ø  Methodology (WEAP Model)
Ø  Climate Change Scenarios
Assessment
Ø  Progress and Results
Ø  Data Sharing and
Dissemination
Ø  Challenges
Ø  Engaging with Policy Makers
 Climate Profile for Kabul River
Basin (Kabul Atlas, AWARD, 2012)

3
 Background

Ø  Water is the most precious and conflict-prone natural resource

Ø  Impacts associated with climate change will not be limited just to
water availability, but also to crops, disease, pests, soil fertility,
amongst others.

Ø  Climate change predictions suggest warmer winters in

Afghanistan

Ø  Afghanistan is expected to be particularly impacted, with river

and streams reducing by almost 20-40 percent throughout the
country,
Background

Ø  Climate change will also have an impact on pests and for that
matter effects on agriculture.

Ø  Extreme events such as drought or flooding is expected to

increase in the region.

Ø  There are important considerations regarding climate

change which should be reviewed when developing
agreements, particularly associated with water allocation.

Ø  Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable countries with

respect to climate change and then such adaptation
strategies are critical for its future.
Scientific Objectives

1.  To identify recommendations on trans-

boundary water issues for Afghanistan-
Pakistan environmental cooperation.
2.  T o a l l o c a t e e n v i r o n m e n t a l f l o w s
requirements in the reservoirs operation
policy.
3.  To estimate the impacts of climate change
on hydropower, irrigation and
environmental flows demand.
Development Objectives

Ø  Hunger Eradication and Poverty Reduction.

Ø  Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture
Ø  Improved Research Capacity on River Basins
Ø  Global Health, Food Security
Ø  Endorsement of principles and proven approaches
of (IWRM)
Ø  Strengthening the relationship between Afghanistan
and Pakistan (Sustainable and peaceful solutions to
water allocation and management while promoting
regional cooperation and collaboration).
 Methodology :Water Evaluation And
Planning System (WEAP) Model
Analyze and evaluate climate change impacts
(impacts of climate change on

environmental flows demand.

Evaluation of impacts
Create adaptation scenarios

hydropower, irrigation and

Data Acquisition And preprocessing

Analyze different STAGES OF WATER CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION

Select emission scenarios

Climate variable times series (P, T)

Downscaling climate variable

Run WEAP hydrology module

Generate streamflow & Calibration and validation of streamflow

Action

Run WEAP operational module

Methodology

Downscaled climatic data will be used from Global Circulation

Models (GCM) to obtain predicted values for climate change
impacts.
Ø  Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method
considering Range of Variability Analysis (RVA) will be
used to estimate the need of environmental flows.
Ø  Reservoir simulation technique will be applied reservoir
operation for hydropower purpose using HEC-ReSim.
Ø  CropWat model will be used to estimate irrigation water
requirement (IWR) for each crop .
 Climate Change Scenarios
Assessment

ü  Since population growth in Kabul is

high, three representative
greenhouse gas emission scenarios
(A2-ASF,A1BASF and B1ASF)
among the four available were
selected.
ü  The impact of high population
growth along with regionally
List of GCMs Applied
economic development was
MIROC 3.2 (Med) Japan
modeled by the MAGICC tool.
CGCM 3.1 (T47) Canada
GFDL-CM2.0 USA
CNRM-CM3 France
Progress and Results
ü  The emission of carbon dioxide
which is anticipated to gradually
increase until 2100 based on the A2
scenario.
ü  The change of temperature based
upon the three combined climate
models. The projection shows that
temperature is anticipated to be
increased by 4.3º C globally based
on the A2 scenario.
Progress and Results

Ø  The A2 scenario was

regionalized to the Kabul
River Basin using the
SCENGEN tool.
Ø  The changes in
precipitation are provided
on a monthly basis and
these changes must be
applied on a monthly basis.
Type of Major Data
Used for WEAP Model

Irrigati
Type   River   Riverbed Installe on
Gross Gross Live
Elevation d Comma Storage Completion
No   Dam   Head Storage Storage Head  
Above Sea Capacit nd (MCM)   date(Year)  
   
(m) (BCM) (BCM)  
    Level (m)   y (MW)   Area
(ha)  

1. Provide a list of existing and planning dams

(Physical, Operation and Hydropower
characteristics for KRB)
2. Hydrology Data
Type of Major Data
Used for WEAP Model
 Data Sharing and Dissemination
One of our main targets of implementing this project would be to
share our findings with the ministries , government ,educational
centers and institutes and in a broader way with the scientific
community.
Ø  Organization of small meetings, discussion groups and large
forums with lecturers/researchers can all serve as opportunities
for sharing knowledge and learning
Ø  Sharing data with experts and officials in Ministry of Energy and
Water, Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock, and
Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development by workshops,
trainings session or seminars.
Ø  Traditional courses
 Challenges
Ø  Lack of “mistrust” between Afghanistan and Pakistan governments.
Ø  Lack of and deficiencies in the climatological, hydrological,
metrological ,and official statistic data collected from Ministry of
Energy and Water .
Ø  Weaknesses of organizations (low standards of bookkeeping, low
administrative coverage and grading documents), Poor office
infrastructure and equipment
Ø  Data collection needs to be followed by strong coordination of the
government institutions.
Ø  Technical and knowledge deficits in water sector;
Ø  Restrict efficient management of national water resources; and
Ø  Limited prospects for development of a coherent policy on trans-
boundary river basins. (Information deficit is greatest in Afghanistan).
Engaging with Policy Makers

Researchers have important responsibilities to inform policy, and doing

so provides a real service to society.
Ø  Governments including Afghanistan government should support data
sharing with researchers
Ø  The role of Third Party
World Bank and USAID supporting the theory of water sharing agreement between the states of Afghanistan and
Pakistan are examples involvement of third parties. As a point out in 2006, the World Bank offered mediation and
advisory process for the two countries, but was refused by Afghan Officials due to the shortage of data and capacity.

Ø  Afghanistan and Pakistan establish a technical committee includes

the representative from each side, e.g. researchers, scientists, or civil
servant
Ø  The states could have access to the other’s data using the fewest
natural resources in the least expensive and most reliable way via
mentioned committee
Thank You!