Water crisis: Why is Pakistan running

dry?
Pakistan could "run dry" by 2025 as its water shortage is reaching an alarming level. The
authorities remain negligent about the crisis that's posing a serious threat to the country's
stability, reports Shah Meer Baloch.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranks third in the world
among countries facing acute water shortage. Reports by the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) also warn the authorities that
the South Asian country will reach absolute water scarcity by 2025.
"No person in Pakistan, whether from the north with its more than 5,000 glaciers, or from the south with
its 'hyper deserts,' will be immune to this [scarcity]," said Neil Buhne, UN humanitarian coordinator for
Pakistan.
Researchers predict that Pakistan is on its way to becoming the most water-stressed country in the region
by the year 2040.
It is not the first time that development and research organizations have alerted Pakistani authorities
about an impending crisis, which some analysts say poses a bigger threat to the country than terrorism.
In 2016, PCRWR reported that Pakistan touched the "water stress line" in 1990 and crossed the "water
scarcity line" in 2005. If this situation persists, Pakistan is likely to face an acute water shortage or a
drought-like situation in the near future, according to PCRWR, which is affiliated with the South Asian
country's Ministry of Science and Technology.

A water-intensive country
Pakistan has the world's fourth-highest rate of water use. Its water intensity rate — the amount of water, in
cubic meters, used per unit of GDP — is the world's highest. This suggests that no country's economy is
more water-intensive than Pakistan's.
According to the IMF, Pakistan's per capita annual water availability is 1,017 cubic meters — perilously
close to the scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic meters. Back in 2009, Pakistan's water availability was about
1,500 cubic meters.
The bulk of Pakistan's farmland is irrigated through a canal system, but the IMF says in a report that canal
water is vastly underpriced, recovering only a quarter of annual operating and maintenance costs.
Meanwhile, agriculture, which consumes almost all annual available surface water, is largely untaxed.
Experts say that population growth and urbanization are the main reasons behind the crisis. The issue has
also been exacerbated by climate change, poor water management and a lack of political will to deal with
the crisis.
"Pakistan is approaching the scarcity threshold for water. What is even more disturbing is that
groundwater supplies — the last resort of water supply — are being rapidly depleted. And worst of all is
that the authorities have given no indication that they plan to do anything about any of this," Michael
Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, told DW in a 2015
interview.
Qazi Talhat, a secretary at the Ministry of Water Resources, told DW the situation is "scary" for Pakistan.
Water scarcity is also triggering security conflicts in the country. Experts say the economic impact of the
water crisis is immense, and the people are fighting for resources.
Climate change
Water scarcity in Pakistan has been accompanied by rising temperatures. In May, at least 65 people died
from heatstroke in the southern city of Karachi. In 2015, at least 1,200 people died during a spate of
extremely hot weather.
"Heat waves and droughts in Pakistan are a result of climate change," Mian Ahmed Naeem Salik, an
environmental expert and research fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, told DW.
"The monsoon season has become erratic in the past few years. The winter season has shrunk from four to
two months in many parts of the country. On top of it, Pakistan cannot save floodwater due to a scarcity of
dams," Salik said. "At the time of Pakistan's birth in 1947, forests accounted for about 5 percent of the
nation's area, but they have now dropped to only 2 percent. Pakistan must invest in building water

reservoirs and plant more trees," he added.

Water scarcity in Pakistan has been accompanied by rising temperatures
Water politics
The Tarbela and Mangla dams, the country's two major water reservoirs, reached their "dead" levels last
week, according to media reports. The news sparked a debate on social media over the inaction of
authorities in the face of this crisis.
"We have only two big reservoirs and we can save water only for 30 days. India can store water for 190
days whereas the US can do it for 900 days," Muhammad Khalid Rana, a spokesman for the Indus River
System Authority (IRSA), told DW.
"Pakistan receives around 145 million acre feet of water every year but can only save 13.7 million acre feet.
Pakistan needs 40 million acre feet of water but 29 million acre feet of our floodwater is wasted because
we have few dams. New Delhi raised this issue with international bodies, arguing that it should be allowed
to use the western rivers because Pakistan can't use them properly," Rana said.
In 1960, the World Bank brokered the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) that gives Pakistan exclusive rights to
use the region's western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenaub — while India has the authority over three
eastern rivers.
The Pakistani government says New Delhi is not fulfilling its responsibilities under the IWT as it voices
concerns over India's construction of new dams. New Delhi is building the Kishangaga hydroelectric plant
in the north of Bandipore in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir region. In May, Islamabad
approached the World Bank complaining that India violated the IWT by building the dam on a Jehlum
River basin, which it lays claim on.
Kugelman says that the Pakistani authorities need to step up efforts to overcome the water crisis, which is
partly man-made. "First of all, Pakistan's leaders and stakeholders need to take ownership of this
challenge and declare their intention to tackle it. Simply blaming previous governments, or blaming India,
for the crisis won't solve anything. Next, the government needs to institute a major paradigm shift that
promotes more judicious use of water," Kugelman emphasized.
Water problems are also triggering security conflicts in the country

Wastage of water
Apart from the water storage issue, experts say that water wastage is also a big issue in the country. Abid
Suleri, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute, says the
mismanagement takes place at many levels.
As the water crisis worsens in Pakistan, foreign diplomats and activists have taken to social media, urging
people to save water.
"Using a bucket to save water while washing my car! #Pakistan ranks third amongst countries facing water
shortage. One major reason is excessive use. 100 liters wasted washing a car with running tap water. Many
ways to #SaveWater in our daily life! #SaveWaterforPak," Martin Kobler, German ambassador to
Pakistan, wrote on Twitter.
In April, former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbasi announced Pakistan's first National Water Policy, promising
consolidated efforts to tackle the water crisis.
But experts are skeptical about the authorities will to deal with the issue. The country will hold general
elections on July 25 and there is an interim government currently in place. Water crisis is a priority
neither for the caretaker government nor for the political parties contesting the polls.

Pakistan’s water crisis

Pakistan is the third most affected country by an acute water shortage, as ranked in
an IMF study. Global warming and climate change have affected the monsoon
season and annual rainfall received. The annual water available has reduced from
1,500 cubic meters per capita in 2009 to only 1,017 cubic meters. That’s barely
above the minimum requirement of a thousand.

The alarming consumption pattern adds to the urgency of the problem. With the
fourth highest rate of water consumption and the highest water intensity rate in
the world — i.e. amount of water used in cubic meters per unit of GDP — Pakistan
needs to reconsider aggregate water usage without further delay.

If the same trend remains, it will reach absolute scarcity levels of water, with a
shortage of 31 million acre feet (MAF), and face a drought by as early as 2025.
That’s just over five years. An agriculture-based economy will face an irreversible
situation of water depletion.

At risk is Pakistan’s 20% of GDP, 75% of total exports revenue and 42% of total
labour force, which the sector contributes directly. Add issues of sanitation, public
health and industrial water supply, and you get why water shortage is a pressing
challenge that requires immediate rectification.

In lines with successful global models of water management, multiple ways can be
adopted to tackle the issue. These include conservation, desalination, recycling,
innovation and governance. Considering the current situation, Pakistan has space
to work in all these areas.

The much politicised debate about construction of new dams is still ongoing, with
some progress on Diamer- Bhasha. The two major dams, Tarbela and Mangla, have
gathered enormous silt deposits since construction and lost enough storage
capacity to be hitting a dead level fast. Of the total 145 MAF that flows annually
through Pakistan, up to only 14 MAF can now be stored by the two reservoirs.
That’s how dangerously low their current capacity is.

Construction of dams is essential but it is a medium- to long-term policy and

requires strategic, inclusive and bold decisions to be made in national interest.
However, for immediate results, more has to be done on a short- term policy front.

For example, public awareness has to be created about the matter and domestic
level sensitisation be developed. Small, basic steps such as adopting a minimal
approach towards use of water can save gallons per day.
That’s where Pakistan’s entrepreneurs have a major role to play. Cost-effective,
localised smart solutions need to be made available for use at the domestic level,
and by the industrial and agriculture sectors. For example, domestic solutions such
as smart monitoring adopted by European countries, including the UK, can keep
water usage and leaks in check.

Technology-based filtration at affordable prices can address water-borne diseases

and contribute towards public health; startups such as Pak Vitae and Xyla Water
are working on scalable models to provide safe drinking water to the poor.

About 95% of Pakistan’s total fresh water is utilised for irrigation in the agriculture
sector. Yet, the production scale per acre is lower than that of India and China in
the region. Therefore, innovative entrepreneurial solutions such as smart irrigation
methods, including micro-irrigation that utilises drip technology will not only
increase cultivation but reduce water wastage.

Taking into consideration the intensity of the challenge and urgency of the matter,
key integral steps have to be taken without delay. Pakistan’s National Water Policy
was approved in 2018 after much deliberation. A bigger question and concern still
remains of its execution and implementation especially with respect to provincial
coordination.

As the government takes policy measures for an inclusive strategy, the civil society
needs to step up as sensitisation agents and the people need to adopt basic lifestyle
changes. We need to do this for the next generation.

Thirsty Days Ahead: Pakistan’s Looming Water Crisis

Pakistan is running out of fresh water at an alarming rate.
Pakistan is currently facing an acute water shortage that is likely to wreck havoc in the country in the
coming years. Recently, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) highlighted a grave water
shortagein the Indus Basin irrigation system (IBIS), the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system,
for the summer cropping season. The timing of the crisis is critical and had delayed the sowing of the
country’s main cash crops, including cotton. Experts believe the authorities were aware of the
approaching acute water shortage because of shortages during the winter cropping season.

In Pakistan, the signs of water stress are ubiquitous in the form of water scarcity, resource depletion,
and contamination. The catastrophe implicates the country’s incompetent leadership, and its inept
administration and poor management of available natural water resources. This has made Pakistan
vulnerable to long drought spells and extreme floods. The climate change-led water crisis not only
poses a threat to the summer cropping season but has also adversely affected the generation of
hydroelectricity.

Such a crisis is inevitable in a country where political leaders are busy slinging mud at each other in a
lust for power while lacking vision. These leaders also oppose the construction of new infrastructure
for storing water. The fact that the word “dam” has been made highly controversial and that its use
often spurs heated discussions between the constituent provinces aptly highlights Pakistan’s
predicament.

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Pakistan is running out of fresh water at an alarming rate, and authorities anticipate that it is likely to
suffer a shortage of 31 million acre-feet (MAF) of water by 2025. The shortfall will be devastating for a
country with an agriculture-based economy. Nearly 70 percent of the Pakistan’s population is directly
or indirectly associated with agriculture, which accounts for 26 percent of its gross domestic product
(GDP).

Farmers are likely to feel the pinch in the form of in-season water shortages, which in turn, will affect
their crop growth and delay harvesting, resulting in reduced production.

In Pakistan, the majority of agricultural land is irrigated, after accounting for ground and rainwater,
with fresh water from the IBIS. The IBIS is fed through two major dams including Tarbela and
Mangla, which since construction, have lost storage capacity due to enormous silt deposition. Both
reservoirs are already hitting a dead level and are unlikely to carry forward the required flow for the
summer crops.

The anticipated water flow in the IBIS for this summer season is 95 MAF against a 112 MAF average
of past 10 years. Moreover, both reservoirs can only store up to 14 MAF of the 145 MAF that annually
flows through the country.

Pakistan is storing less water among the available surface flows due to lack of significant storage. And
given the severely irregular water availability in rivers, the lack of adequate storage at all levels makes
it practically impossible to stock the priceless resource reasonably. However, the country receives a
significant amount of water from the monsoon spells that, if stored properly, could provide with a
sustainable irrigation system.

River flow did not improve during a brief rain spell in the early summer, and the temperature also did
not rise enough in the northern areas of the country to enable the melting of snow. The country
received 50 percent less snow this year than its long-term average in the catchment areas, which
further adds to the catastrophe.

Due to fewer water releases from the dams, farmers largely depend on groundwater. This puts extra
pressure on the aquifers. The majority of agricultural production depends on underground water,
which is not efficiently utilized causing the water table to plummet at an alarming rate.

Farming and urban communities pump far more amounts of groundwater than is replenished
naturally into the aquifers. With nearly 3 to 4 MAF shortfall of groundwater discharge annually, the
aquifers are receding at an alarming rate. Moreover, a 2015 NASA-led study confirmed that the Indus
Basin aquifer is among the most overstressed and rapidly depleting systems in the world. Rainwater
harvesting and partially treated sewage creeks for groundwater recharge are two available solutions,
but the country is far from adopting these on a large scale.

Furthermore, the farming community is wasting a tremendous amount of fresh water by using
outdated flood irrigation methods. About 95 percent of fresh water is utilized for irrigation, and yet
the country is achieving a lower per acre crop production when compared to India and China in the
region.
Exponential population growth in Pakistan has also dramatically changed the calculus of water
demand, resulting in a reduced water availability per capita. Populated cities like Karachi lack sound
water management and are already facing a Cape Town-like “day zero situation.”

Amid election season in Pakistan, the water crisis has already contributed to the politically charged
atmosphere, attracting massive public attention. The issue will undoubtedly influence the rural
electorate.

The water crisis is the writing on the wall and not hogwash. The snowcapped mountain ranges of the
country, the primary freshwater source, are not infinite. The political leadership still has time to give
attention to this pending catastrophe and include it in their mandates for the upcoming polls.

Recently, a large social media campaign was launched with the objective of pushing the incoming
government into building the Kalabagh dam, a politically disputed project. Undoubtedly,
infrastructure is often popular and likely necessary, but such uncertain mega projects are a waste of
time and resources and cannot instantly address the present-day water issue.

The most crucial next step should be to build new reservoirs at all scales to store the monsoon surplus
and reduce downstream flood peaks. The principle that every drop stored is a drop saved can help to
keep the river delta alive and can also solve many problems stemming from water scarcity. Given the
country’s impending water shortage, new reservoirs are equally vital to meet the requirement of
agriculture, rapid urbanization, population growth, food insecurity and growing water demand of the
industry.

The recently approved national water policy must be implemented both in letter and in spirit
for efficient water resource management. Furthermore, commissions must be set up to monitor the
efficient water resource management at all levels frequently and to offer timely recommendations.

Given the limited capacity of state institutions to manage the water sector and because repeated
attempts and investments to fix existing infrastructure have failed, the country must think outside the
box. Innovation, particularly the participation of the private sector, could be key in managing water
resources efficiently. De-bundling services and encouraging the private sector to manage water
resources can be an excellent initiative to address current issues. The Agriculture department ought to
keep urging and facilitating farmers in shifting their focus to modern and efficient irrigation
technologies in lieu of outdated flooding methods.

Pakistan needs to learn from countries with even less water but higher domestic product (GDP) and
better quality of life indicators such as Israel, a country right in the middle of a desert that has been
able to reuse effluent to irrigate about 40 percent of its agricultural land with sound political will,
economic resources and by employing the right technology.

It’s a challenge for the state to save water not only for agriculture but also for human consumption
and to meet the rising water demand in other social and economic sectors. This demands improved
water governance, management and investment in scientific knowledge, all of which entail
commitment and resources. It’s time for decisive action.

Water scarcity in Pakistan

Water is one of the most important natural resources. It covers one-third of the area of the earth.
Unfortunately, due to lack of proper measures for securing and preserving natural resources, our
country is suffering from water scarcity. According to the United Nations, nearly 1.8 billion people will
live in the region of “absolute water scarcity” by the end of 2025. Moreover, according to the World
Economic Report, the biggest threat to Pakistan is the water crisis, followed by unmanageable
inflation, terrorist attacks, failure of urban planning and that captious infrastructure.

READ MORE: 22 people go missing as flash flood hits Neelum Valley

On the other side, a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has ranked Pakistan
third among the countries facing acute water shortage. Furthermore, Pakistan Council Research in
Water Resources (PCRWR), has warned that Pakistan may run out of water by 2025. The shortfall will
be devasting for the country having an agriculture-based economy.

The water crisis in Pakistan is more due to wastage of water, rapid population growth, deteriorating
situation of dams, an outdated canal system, expensive and improper ways of irrigation. Therefore,
amidst all these issues, there is a dire need for possible solutions to overcome this crisis. The federal
and provincial government must take proper policies in water to save the shortage of water,
construction of new small dams, plantation of trees, responsible use of household water and
awareness campaigns.

Water scarcity
PAKISTAN could be water scarce by 2025. In recent days, this prediction has generated
headlines and galvanised social media users across the country. It’s not the first time we’ve
heard this estimate. The UN, Pakistan’s Met department and the Pakistan Council of
Research in Water Resources have all delivered it in recent years.

The fact that the projection didn’t attract much attention previously is unsurprising. For
years, Pakistan’s water researchers have shouted from the rooftops about water insecurity.
And most people couldn’t be bothered to look up to see what the shouting was about. But
today, perhaps because of the debate on the Kishanganga dispute, Pakistan’s water woes
are getting attention. That’s a good thing, given the seriousness of the situation. Pakistan
won’t become water scarce in 2025 because, for all intents and purposes, it’s already water
scarce.

Per capita availability hovers around 1,000 cubic metres, the scarcity threshold. In some
areas, the Indus has been reduced to a puddle, bringing misery to farmers and an
agricultural sector that dominates the economy. Drought conditions are endemic in
Balochistan. According to officials in Karachi, residents receive fewer than 500 million
gallons of water per day, well below 50 per cent of daily needs.

Meanwhile, groundwater tables are plummeting. According to the World Wide Fund for
Nature in Pakistan, the water table has fallen to below 130 feet (39.6 metres) in central
Lahore. The Indus basin aquifer, as revealed by Nasa satellite data, is the second most
stressed in the world.

Building new dams won’t make damaging policies go away.

Groundwater is water security’s safety net. And in Pakistan, this safety net is fraying
rapidly. It is also increasingly contaminated.

Let’s be clear: Pakistan is rapidly running out of water, and much of what’s left is unfit for
consumption. The over 53,000 children that die every year from waterborne disease,
according to Unicef, learn this in the most tragic way. More than two-thirds of Pakistan’s
households drink contaminated water, according to Unicef. Research in Science Advances
journal finds that, based on about 1,200 groundwater samples, up to 60 million people,
more than a quarter of the population, are at risk of consuming arsenic. A whopping 91pc
of Karachi’s water, according to a Pakistani judicial commission report, contains sewage
and industrial waste.

Water pollution isn’t just a public health hazard, it’s also detrimental to the economy.
According to the World Bank, it costs Pakistan nearly 4pc of GDP.

With scarcity having arrived, there’s only so much that can be done. Indeed, the what-
should-be-done question has become the can-anything-be-done question.

Fortunately, the answer is yes. The first step is to craft a national consensus, with buy-in
from the entire political class, for addressing a long-neglected crisis. A new national water
policy, approved last month, is a good start. It needs a strong implementing framework
and should be informed by inputs from Pakistan’s water experts.

Tough decisions will need to be made about changing the public policies that have
exacerbated water woes: a preference for wasteful flood irrigation and water-guzzling
crops, a lackadaisical approach to maintaining and repairing ageing, leaky water
infrastructure; a paucity of wastewater treatment facilities, and a distorted water-pricing
regime that gives consumers little incentive to conserve. Let’s also not forget that CPEC,
with its large-scale projects in Pakistan’s most parched regions, is an accelerant of water
stress.

Building new dams — or getting a favourable decision on the Kishanganga dispute — won’t
make these damaging policies go away. Admittedly, an American urging Pakistan to
develop political consensus to tackle a critical policy dilemma may be a case of the pot
calling the kettle black. In America, partisan gridlock has long stymied efforts to address
poor healthcare and gun violence.

Yes, it’s hard to develop political consensus and national strategies. But it’s essential. For
Pakistan, the alternative is stark: a dry dystopia where some, equipped with electric tube
wells, desperately search for the last drops of groundwater, while others find themselves at
the mercy of rapacious water mafias. Energy resources are exhausted. Public health crises
explode. Water scarcity takes a devastating toll, killing crops, livelihoods, economic
growth, and, slowly, the nation on the whole.

Back in 2007, South Asia scholar Anatol Lieven had warned that water shortages pose “the
greatest threat to the viability of Pakistan as a state and a society”. At the time, his warning
may have seemed hyperbolic.

Today, with the existential threat posed by water stress coming into sharp focus, Lieven’s
warning is sounding remarkably prophetic.

Water economics
PAKISTAN is getting very poor economic returns from its large water
resources, and when we add in the costs of environmental degradation due to
misuse of water, the returns are pushed even further down. This is the
finding of a new World Bank report Pakistan: Getting More from Water that
takes a close look at the country’s water endowment, and how well the water
is used for productive purposes. Some of the findings are so counter-intuitive
as to merit a more spirited debate. For example, the authors say that
irrigation, which consumes the lion’s share of total water resources, only
contributes $22bn to the annual GDP. The four major crops — cotton, wheat,
sugarcane and rice — consume 80pc of the water in the system, while they
generate less than 5pc of the total GDP. This is a startling perspective because
laypersons are used to thinking of Pakistan as an agrarian country, and the
gross asymmetry in the water allocations between industry and agriculture,
as well as city and country, is almost considered normal under the shadow of
this assumption.

The figures point to massive waste as the primary problem in the water sector of Pakistan,
not quantity. Proponents of the argument that dams are the only solution to our water
woes need to reflect on some of the findings of the report. The amount of water that goes
into the cultivation of major crops is far out of proportion to what is needed. Wasteful
practices such as flood irrigation will remain in place so long as our water conversation
continues to be dominated by the talk of dams. The simple fact brought out by the report is
that improvements in water utilisation can do far more to ensure the water security of
future generations than any number of dams will. Besides waste, the other main cost that
poor utilisation practices impose upon society is through environmental degradation, a
fact that is unfortunately absent altogether from the country’s water conversation. This
degradation is made possible by the poor state of water data and monitoring, the authors
note. One is reminded of the sorry end that the telemetry system installed in the early
2000s met with; it was supposed to measure the streamflow down to the watercourse
level. Without data and monitoring, and a woefully outdated pricing regime, Pakistan’s
water security will remain on shaky foundations regardless of how many dams the country
builds.

The World Bank In Pakistan

Pakistan has important strategic endowments and development
potential. The increasing proportion of Pakistan’s youth provides the
country with a potential demographic dividend and a challenge to
provide adequate services and employment.
Pakistan’s economy continued to grow in FY18, reaching 5.8 percent. Growth was driven
by higher consumption demand, fueled by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies;
resulting in widening macroeconomic imbalances. Current account deficit (CAD) reached
6.1 percent of GDP in FY18, up from 4.1 percent in FY17. The widening CAD reflects the
growing trade deficit as exports struggled to catch up with steady acceleration in imports
due to high domestic demand. Fiscal deficit widened to 6.6 percent (excluding grants) in
FY18, reversing fiscal consolidation efforts in previous years. The main reasons for the
fiscal slippage was a large increase in recurrent spending together with low revenue
growth (non-tax revenues). 
The new government took steps to address these imbalances, but outcomes by mid-year
suggest that further adjustments will be necessary. Leading indicators for real sector
activity suggest a contraction in demand. Large scale manufacturing, which accounts for
65 percent of overall industrial output, contracted by 2.3 percent between July-January
FY19. In agriculture, four of the five major crops have witnessed a y-o-y decline in
production, due to water shortages and a decline in production area. The exchange rate
has continued to depreciate, with a cumulative depreciation of 13.6 percent between July
2018 and March 2019. As a result of exchange rate depreciation, demand side pressures
and higher fuel prices, inflationary pressures have increased, and average headline
inflation reached 6.8 percent in the period between July 2018 and March 2019 (as
compared to 3.8 percent in the same period last year).  In response to higher inflationary
pressures, the State Bank of Pakistan has increased the policy rate by a cumulative 425 bps
to 10.75 percent since July 2018.

Current Account Deficit (CAD) reached 3.3 percent of GDP in Jul-Feb FY19 compared to
3.7 percent in Jul-Feb FY18. Overall imports contracted by 1.6 percent (y-o-y) but exports
also declined by 0.1 percent (y-o-y) in spite of the exchange rate depreciation. Over the
same period, remittances experienced healthy growth, but foreign direct investment
declined. By mid-January international reserves had fallen to US$6.6 billion (or 1.3
months of imports). With short term financing from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates and China reserves increased to US$10.5 billion (or 2.0 months of imports)
by end-March 2019. Meanwhile, the government continues to negotiate a support package
with the International Monetary Fund. Large increases in debt servicing and defense
expenditures resulted in higher fiscal deficit in H1-FY19 which reached 2.7 percent of GDP
(compared to 2.2 percent in H1-FY18). The FY19 fiscal deficit is projected between 6.8-7.0
percent of GDP, a slippage of 2.7-2.9 percentage points compared to the budgeted target. 

The projected poverty rate is expected to continue declining in FY19. Poverty head-count
measured using the $1.90 international poverty line is estimated at 3.1 per-cent for FY19,
down from 4 percent in 2015 (the most recent official numbers). Poverty at the $3.2
poverty line is estimated to have fallen by approximately 3.4 percentage points to 31.3
percent during the same period; and using the $5.5 poverty line to 72.6 percent (a 2.8
percentage points decline since 2015).

Growth is projected to decelerate in FY19 and FY20, as the government tightens fiscal and
monetary policies. As macroeconomic conditions improve, and a package of structural
reforms in fiscal management and competitiveness is implemented, growth is expected to
recover from FY21 onwards. Together with the macroeconomic adjustments, there is an
urgent need to implement structural reforms to support the growth rebound. Reforms to
put the country on a stable growth path include increased exchange rate flexibility,
improved competitiveness and lower cost of doing business. On the revenue front, reforms
to improve tax administration, widen the tax base and facilitate tax compliance are critical.

Water crisis- a daunting challenge for

Pakistan
Water crisis
 is emerging one of the biggest challenges for Pakistan now a days. Pakistan’s water resources are
running dry at alarming rate. Current extreme water shortage warnings have attracted nation’s
attention. The annual water availability that was nearly 1,300 cubic metres per capita, has fallen to
1000 cubic meters leaving Pakistan to the category of highly water stressed nations in the globe. The
matter of serious concern is that IMF has also placed Pakistan on third position in the context
of water crisis . In addition, study suggests that currently, Pakistan is water stressed country but if the
suitable action is not undertaken for preserving and saving water, it will turn water scarce by 2025.
Undeniably, these prospects and predictions could become the bitter truth very soon if government
doesn’t put water management policy at top of its agendas and if sustainable and economical use of
water doesn’t become top of our priorities. 
There is no denying the fact that our country’s water crisis has exacerbated these days than before.
Pakistan is witnessing looming water crisis , on the one hand, there is extreme irrigation water
scarcity due to which the productivity and fertilization of agriculture and food security of motherland
are being badly affected. It is believed that Pakistan is one of the major food producing and land
copious countries in the world. The tragic truth is that current drought- like condition has reduced the
food and agricultural yields and outputs of crops. 

On the other, there is an acute drinking water scarcity which has made lives of the people miserable.
In major cities of Pakistan underground water is salty, thus not drinkable. Hence, People walk long
distances in the search of water in many parts of the country. Approximately, more than 27 million
Pakistanis lack access to potable water and almost 70pc water in the homeland is unfit for human
consumption. Therefore, common people are drinking that contaminated water because they have no
way out other than consuming harmful water. According to Hassan Foundation, almost, 250,000
children under the age of five die every year of waterborne disease, costing economy around $ 1.3
billions. Whereas, four-fifths of all diseases Pakistanis suffer from, such as cholera, diarroea, typhoid
and hepatitis, are caused by contaminated and untreated water. 

The major reasons for this serious water scarcity can be attributed to poor water resource management, water
wastage and lack of effective water conservation policy, low budget allocation and dearth of reservoirs and
storage dams. No doubt, Pakistan has miserably failed in showing progressive approach towards water
management. Huge chunk of water is wasted in Pakistan and less than 0.2 percent of GDP is allocated for water
and sanitation. Besides, since 1960s, new dams have not been built despite the fact that our dams can store
water for 30 days only. Likewise, bourgeoning population, rapid urbanization and growing demand of water in
agricultural and industrial sector have jointly made the water a dwindling resource. Additionally, devastating
effects of climate change are also highly responsible for drought like situation in major Parts of the country.
According to 2017 Climate Change Index, Pakistan is one of the most affected and vulnerable countries to
climate change, ranking on 7th number out of 10 climate prrior nations of Asia. Meanwhile, erractic weather
and rainfall patterns, glacial melting, global warming and droughts have further aggravated the situation in
Pakistan. 

Undeniably, water is increasingly essential for the sustenance of human life; people’s livelihoods, food
security and socio-economic stability of our country as well. Whereas, Pakistan is agricultural
country. Around 42 percent workforce in rural areas work in agricultural fields. Agriculture
significantly contributes in Pakistan’s exports, GDP, per capita income and social and economic
progress. Almost 21 percent of GDP and 70 percent exports are created from it like cotton, wheat, rice
etc. Thus, it would not be an exaggeration to say that water is lifeline for Pakistan. Without that socio-
economic advancement cannot be attained. So, lets work in tandem to fix this pressing problem
stabilize our country at all fronts. Water crisis is getting worse from bad day by day. That is why
immediate and special attention must be drawn to water management on government side. The
government should chalk out the best possible plannings for building more water reservoirs and
storage dams in the country as they will go long way towards resolving this pressing problem.
Furthermore, there is the dire need to formulate an effective water resource management and
conservation agenda, a uniform water distribution policy and an efficient plan for controlling water
wastage. Moreover, state must invest in climate change mitigation and adaption strategies to save the
country from its miserable impacts. Apart from this the state need to ensure that every citizen has
smooth access to clean and drinkable water. The only way to tackle this alarming water crisis is to take
urgent and strategic action in this very direction. Otherwise, it will be too late to act when the
country’s water resources would go dry and there will be no drop to drink! 

Five myths about water in Pakistan

Persistent myths, which can misguide policy, are barriers to improving water security for
the people of Pakistan. Here are five:

First, this problem of water security is often presented as one of water scarcity. But
Pakistan is a water-rich country – only 35 countries have more renewable water. It is true
that measured for each person, Pakistan is approaching a widely recognized scarcity level
of 1000 cubic meters each year. But there are 32 countries that have less water for each
person and most of these countries are much wealthier and use less water for each person.
Pakistan needs to shift its focus from scarcity to managing water demand and producing
more from each drop of water. It needs to make water allocation more efficient and fair,
and offer incentives that reflect how scarce water is to encourage wise use.
Second, Pakistan worries about  a lack of reservoir storage. Common but misleading
measures cited are “storage volume per person” and storage in terms of “average days of
water demand”, typically compared to other countries, while ignoring differences in flow
variability. Storage is used to buffer the variability of flows to match the time varying
pattern of demand. In the Indus flows do not vary greatly between years, partly because of
the significant storage the glaciers represent – an asset most countries lack. Thus, Pakistan
has little need for reservoir storage from one year to the next. Rather, it needs storage to
even out within year variations associated with the monsoon. However, unlike many
countries, in Pakistan the timing of flows is not vastly different to the timing of demand,
although some storage is needed to capture the monsoon peak and release this water later
in the Kharif season and in the early Rabi season. Additional storage would certainly yield
additional useable water, but any increase in water use will inevitably reduce the flow to
the sea, which is already at an environmentally unsustainable low level. Given Pakistan’s
low economic productivity of water in irrigation and rapid rates of reservoir
sedimentation, it is hard to justify the costs of major new storages. Hydropower generation
does justify new dams, but these could be run-of-the-river facilities (not storage), with
lower social and environmental impacts.

Third, there is concern over the loss of the Indus basin glaciers. Upper Indus flows are
strongly dependent on snow melt (22 percent) and glacial melt (41 percent). Climate
change appears to be affecting rainfall, snowfall and glacier melt but in complex ways with
no clear trends.  No significant changes in river flows are projected before 2050. Under
different climate change scenarios average flows either increase slightly or decrease
slightly. Glacial melt is expected to increase, but be offset by snowmelt reductions. A 20-
28 percent reduction in ice volume is projected, mostly at lower elevations. The Indus has
a greater share of glacial ice at higher elevation than other Himalayan basins, and
although faster rates of warming are expected higher up, the absolute temperatures
projected would not be enough to drive rapid melting there.

Fourth, irrigation is commonly believed to be highly inefficient in the Indus leading to a

common belief that much water could be “saved” by capturing “losses”. At the basin-scale
irrigation is estimated to be more than 80 percent efficient, with only a relatively small
proportion of irrigation water lost through evaporation and non-productive plant use. The
big “losses” are drainage returns to the river and seepage to groundwater, both of which
are then used through diversion downstream or through groundwater pumping. Indeed, it
is canal seepage and percolation to groundwater that supports the high and increasing
levels of groundwater use in the basin. The problems in irrigation are more to do with
inefficient and unfair distribution of the water, and low productivity in terms of the yield
and value of crops a unit of water used.

Fifth, the flows to the sea are commonly seen as wastage. Average flow to the sea has been
falling for more than 80 years. Firstly, the eastern rivers were diverted to India and then
storages were constructed in Pakistan. Average annual flow to the sea has been reduced by
more than 80 percent. There is strong evidence that declining flows (as well as pollution,
reduction in sediment loads and fragmentation of the river by multiple barrages) is
contributing to the declining health of the lower river and delta and underminging the
valuable services these ecosystems provide including fisheries and coasal protection. The
economic value of these ecosystem services has not been properly assessed.

The Indus basin is most likely over-developed from an environmental sustainability

perspective in terms of volumes of water diverted for use. There needs to be more focus on
better irrigation service delivery and better on-farm water management, coupled with
improvements to boost productivity. With a rapidly growing population, Pakistan will
inevitably become more water scarce in a relative sense. But Pakistan can become water
secure through efficient and sustainable resource management, improved service delivery,
and better risk mitigation.