Random Walk

Time Price Head

0 1000
1 999 1001 0
2 998 1000 1002 0
3 997 999 1001 1003 0
4 996 998 1000 1002 1004 0
5 995 997 999 1001 1003 1005 0
6 994 996 998 1000 1002 1004 1006 0
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
 91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
 Probability Distribution

1 0.5 0.5
1 2 0.25 0.5 0.25
1 2 3 0.125 0.375 0.375
1 2 3 4 0.0625 0.25 0.375
1 2 3 4 5 0.03125 0.15625 0.3125
1 2 3 4 5 6 0.015625 0.09375 0.234375
0.015625

Probaility of getting 125 heads and 125 tails after 250 to

5.04% 5041.2213147
Estimated Value 1000
Probaility of getting 100 heads and 150 tails after 250 to
0.033511% 33.511233496
Estimated Value 950
Probaility of getting 75 heads and 175 tails after 250 toss
0.00000001% 6.405246E-06
Estimated Value 900
 Expected Value

1000

0.125
0.25 0.0625
0.3125 0.15625 0.03125
0.3125 0.234375 0.09375 0.015625
0.3125

s and 125 tails after 250 tosses

s and 150 tails after 250 tosses

and 175 tails after 250 tosses

Expected Return 20%
Standard Deviation 40%
Current Stock Price 100

Time (years) Return_RiskFree Return_Risk Price

100
1 20% -52.75% 67.25
2 20% 30.15% 100.98
3 20% 13.41% 134.73
4 20% -28.35% 123.48
5 20% 21.71% 174.98
6 20% 89.52% 366.62
7 20% 3.02% 451.02
8 20% 36.06% 703.88
9 20% 2.71% 863.74
10 20% -63.83% 485.14

Price Simulation
Expected Price After 10 year Simulated
Simulation 1 485.14 Min 25thPercentileMedian
Simulation 2 485.14 485.14 485.14 485.14
Simulation 3 485.14
Simulation 4 485.14
Simulation 5 485.14
Simulation 6 485.14
Simulation 7 485.14
Simulation 8 485.14
Simulation 9 485.14
Simulation 10 485.14
Simulation 11 485.14
Simulation 12 485.14
Simulation 13 485.14
Simulation 14 485.14
Simulation 15 485.14
Simulation 16 485.14
Simulation 17 485.14
Simulation 18 485.14
Simulation 19 485.14
Simulation 20 485.14
Simulation 21 485.14
Simulation 22 485.14
Simulation 23 485.14
Simulation 24 485.14
Simulation 25 485.14
Simulation 26 485.14
Simulation 27 485.14
Simulation 28 485.14
Simulation 29 485.14
Simulation 30 485.14
Simulation 31 485.14
Simulation 32 485.14
Simulation 33 485.14
Simulation 34 485.14
Simulation 35 485.14
Simulation 36 485.14
Simulation 37 485.14
Simulation 38 485.14
Simulation 39 485.14
Simulation 40 485.14
Simulation 41 485.14
Simulation 42 485.14
Simulation 43 485.14
Simulation 44 485.14
Simulation 45 485.14
Simulation 46 485.14
Simulation 47 485.14
Simulation 48 485.14
Simulation 49 485.14
Simulation 50 485.14
Simulation 51 485.14
Simulation 52 485.14
Simulation 53 485.14
Simulation 54 485.14
Simulation 55 485.14
Simulation 56 485.14
Simulation 57 485.14
Simulation 58 485.14
Simulation 59 485.14
Simulation 60 485.14
Simulation 61 485.14
Simulation 62 485.14
Simulation 63 485.14
Simulation 64 485.14
Simulation 65 485.14
Simulation 66 485.14
Simulation 67 485.14
Simulation 68 485.14
Simulation 69 485.14
Simulation 70 485.14
Simulation 71 485.14
Simulation 72 485.14
Simulation 73 485.14
Simulation 74 485.14
Simulation 75 485.14
Simulation 76 485.14
Simulation 77 485.14
Simulation 78 485.14
Simulation 79 485.14
Simulation 80 485.14
Simulation 81 485.14
Simulation 82 485.14
Simulation 83 485.14
Simulation 84 485.14
Simulation 85 485.14
Simulation 86 485.14
Simulation 87 485.14
Simulation 88 485.14
Simulation 89 485.14
Simulation 90 485.14
Simulation 91 485.14
Simulation 92 485.14
Simulation 93 485.14
Simulation 94 485.14
Simulation 95 485.14
Simulation 96 485.14
Simulation 97 485.14
Simulation 98 485.14
Simulation 99 485.14
Simulation 100 485.14
0.827444006
0.816651179

75th PercentiMax 1 485.14

485.14 485.14 2 485.1441
3 485.1441
4 485.1441
5 485.1441
6 485.1441
7 485.1441
8 485.1441
9 485.1441
10 485.1441
11 485.1441
12 485.1441
13 485.1441
14 485.1441
15 485.1441
16 485.1441
17 485.1441
18 485.1441
19 485.1441
20 485.1441
21 485.1441
22 485.1441
23 485.1441
24 485.1441
25 485.1441
Investment 100
Exp ret 10%
Risk 0

time (YearsPrice
0 100
1 110 S(t)=S(t-1)(1+Mu*Delta(t))
2 121
3 133 S(t)=S(t-1)(1+Mu*Delta(t)+sigma*N(0,1)*Delta(t))
4 146 Here, Delta(t)=1
5 161
6 177
7 195
8 214
9 236
10 259
11 285
12 314
13 345