b a

Advertising Sales (thousands of

Month
(thousands of $) units) 109.23 (8.13)
1 2.5 264 264.94
2 1.3 116 133.86
3 1.4 165 144.79
4 1 101 101.09
5 2 209 210.32
1.75 183.02

Chart Title
Multiple R 0.98
300
R Square 0.96
250

200

150

100

50

0
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6

Column D Column E
Linear (Column E)
 Office Button Menu

Excel Options Data

Add-Ins Data Analysis

Analysis-toolpak Regression

Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1
Week Patient Arrivals Forcast Error Month

1 400 1
2 380 2
3 411 3
4 415 397 18 4
5 405 402 3 5
6 396 410 (14) 6
Customer Custome
Forcast Error Month Forcast Error
arrival r arrival
800 1 800
740 2 740
810 3 810
790 783.33 4 790 787
805 780.00 25 5 805 786 19
800 801.67 (2) 6 800 801.5 (2)
798.33 799.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
კომპანიის გაყიდვები მოცემულია ცხრილში.
Jan 20
Jan 20 Feb 24
Feb 24 Mar 27
Mar 27 Apr 31
Apr 31 25 6 May 37
May 37 29 9 Jun 47
Jun 47 33 14 Jul 53
Jul 53 41 12 Aug 62
Aug 62 48 14 Sep 54
Sep 54 57 (3) Oct 36
Oct 36 57 (21) Nov 32
Nov 32 46 (14) Dec 29
Dec 29 37 (8)

გამოიყენეთ შემდეგი წონები: 3/6, 2/6 და 1/6 და დაითვალეთ შეწონილი პროგნოზი აპრილიდან დეკ
 25 6
29 9
33 14
41 12
48 14
57 -3
57 -21
46 -14
37 -8

ოზი აპრილიდან დეკემბრის ჩათვლით .

Alpha= 0.1 Alpha= 0.2

Patient Patient
Week forcast error Week forcast error
Arrivals Arrivals
1 400 1 800
2 380 2 740
3 411 390 21 3 810 783 27
4 415 392 23 4 790 789 1
5 405 394 11 5 805 789 16
6 395 6 792

Alpha= 0.1 Alpha= 0.2

Patient Patient
Week forcast error Week forcast
Arrivals Arrivals
1 400 1 400
2 380 2 380
3 411 390 21 3 411
4 415 392.10 23 4 415
5 405 394.39 11 5 405
6 395.45 6
error
Quarter Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45.00 0.18 70.00 0.23 100.00 0.22 100.00
2 335.00 1.34 370.00 1.23 585.00 1.30 725.00
3 520.00 2.08 590.00 1.97 830.00 1.84 1,160.00
4 100.00 0.40 170.00 0.57 285.00 0.63 215.00
1,000.00 1,200.00 1,800.00 2,200.00
250.00 300.00 450.00 550.00
Year 4
0.18 132.82 0.20
1.32 843.62 1.30
2.11 1,300.03 2.00
0.39 323.52 0.50
2,600.00
650.00
Month Demand Forecast Error Error2 Absolute Absolute % Error
t Dt Ft Et Et2 Error |Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100) (Et - Ēt)2

1 200 225 -25 625 25 13% 100

2 240 220 20 400 20 8% 1225
3 300 285 15 225 15 5% 900
4 270 290 -20 400 20 7% 25
5 230 250 -20 400 20 9% 25
6 260 240 20 400 20 8% 1225
7 210 250 -40 1600 40 19% 625
8 275 240 35 1225 35 13% 2500
∑ 1985 2000 -15 5275 195 81% 6625
(1.88) 25.68 24.38 10% 30.76
CFE MSE MAD MAPE σ

CFE -15
MSE 659.375
MAD 24.375
MAPE 0.10175
σ 30.7641