Accepted Manuscript

Rainfall enhancement in Karnataka state cloud seeding program

“Varshadhare” 2017

J.R. Kulkarni, S.B. Morwal, N.R. Deshpande

PII: S0169-8095(18)31175-X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.12.020
Reference: ATMOS 4443
To appear in: Atmospheric Research
Received date: 19 September 2018
Revised date: 19 November 2018
Accepted date: 20 December 2018

Please cite this article as: J.R. Kulkarni, S.B. Morwal, N.R. Deshpande , Rainfall
enhancement in Karnataka state cloud seeding program “Varshadhare” 2017. Atmos
(2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.12.020

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Rainfall Enhancement in Karnataka State Cloud Seeding Program “Varshadhare”

2017

Kulkarni J. R., Morwal S. B.* morwal@tropmet.res.in, Deshpande N. R.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, N.C.L. Post Office, Pune,
Maharashtra, India
*
Corresponding author.

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Abstract

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Operational cloud seeding program was conducted in the Karnataka State, India

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during 21 August to 7 November 2017 with robust, pre-established experimental design plan

following the guidelines developed under Indian national CAIPEEX program. Hygroscopic
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and glaciogenic seeding were carried out using areal method. A very high resolution
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raingauge network (spatial resolution: 5 km, temporal resolution: 15 minutes) was used to

measure the surface rainfall. Two approaches have been used for estimating the
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enhancement: (i) Rainfalls within 4-hours after seeding was compared at station levels with

the rainfalls prior to seeding. The analysis of 618 cases showed average enhancement of
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27.9% above the natural rainfall. (ii) The floating control-target area rainfall analysis was
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used to estimate the natural rainfall that would have occurred without seeding. For
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understanding maximum absolute increase in the rainfall, 7 cases in the top 5% which were
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well distributed within seeding period (with 4 hygroscopic and 3 glaciogenic cases) have

been analyzed. The maximum increase in rainfalls in hygroscopic/glaciogenic cases were

20.8/28.1 mm which are ~5/7 times higher than the mean daily rainfall (4.3 mm) during

September-October. Additional water made available due to seeding has been estimated to be

2.1 TMC. The study showed that seeding became effective in increasing rainfall under the

particular dynamic and thermodynamical conditions. This is an unique study to estimate the

effect of operational cloud seeding in (i) enhancement of precipitation and (ii) availability of
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additional water. The results of the study may find basis for the operational programs in the

world.

Keywords: Karnataka Cloud Seeding Program 2017, Enhancement of rainfall, High

resolution surface rainfall data, control-target area analysis, additional water generated

1. Introduction

The State Government of Karnataka (GoK), India, carried out “Karnataka State Cloud

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Seeding Program 2017” (KSCSP-2017) called “Varshadhare” during the period 21 August –

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7 November 2017. Karnataka Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Department (KRWS & SD)

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was the nodal agency for carrying out the project. The prime objective of the program was to

enhance the rainfall from convective clouds using hygroscopic and glaciogenic seeding to
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mitigate the water scanty conditions and save crops which were under stress due to lack of

rainfall. The program was implemented utilizing all the advanced tools and guidance from
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experts in the weather modification field.

The scientific basis of seeding methodology in enhancing the rainfall has been
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discussed in many papers and text books. Success of South African seeding programs

(Mather et al., 1997) triggered many cloud seeding programs in the research and operational
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modes in the world (Bruintjes, 1999). French et al. (2018) provided the strongest evidence, to

date, of the full microphysical chain of events following airborne glaciogenic seeding of
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orographic cloud systems in enhancing the precipitation.

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Long term operational seeding programs have been conducted over Florida (Woodley

et al., 1982), Texas (Rosenfeld and Woodley, 1989; 1993; Woodley and Solak, 1990; Bomar

et al., 1999), North Dakota (Delene, 2016), Israel (Levin et al., 2010), Australia (Tessendorf

et al., 2010; 2015; Manton et al., 2011; 2017; Manton and Warren, 2011). Such programs

were conducted in 32 countries in the world (Bruintjes, 2013).

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India has a long history of cloud seeding operations in research and operation modes

(Morwal et al., 2018b). IITM’s 11-year program (Murty et al., 2000) showed increase in

rainfall by 24% due to seeding. Clouds over Indian region were studied during the monsoon

seasons of 2009-2011 using instrumented aircraft in “Cloud Aerosol Interaction and

Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX)” (Kulkarni et al., 2012). The cloud

aerosol observations during the CAIPEEX program revealed that the clouds over the

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peninsular India (in which Karnataka state lies) (1) have a large number of small size (< 12

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µm radius, which is threshold for activation of collision coalescence process) droplets, (2)

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cloud tops extend beyond freezing level and (3) clouds contain significant amount of

supercooled water above freezing level. These findings from CAIPEEX program led to
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conclusion that the convective clouds over rain-shadow regions of peninsular India are

amenable for both hygroscopic and glaciogenic cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement.
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CAIPEEX program helped to enhance the knowledge of cloud seeding operations. The

design of the Karnataka program was prepared based on the knowledge gained from the
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many cloud seeding experiments carried out over the last 5 decades in the world, and on

exploratory studies carried out in the CAIPEEX program. A robust, pre-established

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experimental design plan was prepared for executing the program based on the guidelines

prepared on the knowledge gained in the CAIPEEX program. Silverman (2001), Woodley
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and Rosenfeld (2004) advocated that evaluation of seeding programs should be given a high
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priority. Otherwise, the programs will invite controversies in the minds of people in general,

administrators and policy makers in particular. Additionally positive results in the evaluation

give confidence for taking decisions for long term seeding policy. On the other hand,

negative results suggest improvements to be included in the future programs. With this

background a quick evaluation of KSCSP “Varshadhare” 2017 has been carried out in this

paper.
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This is a purely statistical study and no attempt is made to examine physical “links in

the chain” of processes from airborne seeding to precipitation on the ground. The physical

links have been established in the radar studies in South African seeding cases by Mather et

al. (1997), modelling studies recently by French et al. (2018) in glaciogenic seeding. This was

an operational program which had limited airborne instruments for measuring cloud

parameters. So it was not possible to examine physical links between seeding and ground

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rainfall. Nevertheless, the study has made use of a unique very high spatial and temporal

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rainfall data. No such high resolution rainfall data has been used in the rainfall enhancement

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analysis in any of the programs in the world. Some studies used rainfall data at less than 5 km

resolution but those experiments were related to antihail rockets operations and not to cloud
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seeding for rainfall enhancements. Randomized seeding experiments were conducted in

Israel, Australia, and the western US with limited number of samples. Randomized seeding
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experiments require many years, or rather decades, to collect a sufficient data set. Physically-

based experiments that measure “links in the chain” are more cost-effective than multi-
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year randomized seeding experiments (Tessendorf et al., 2015). CAIPEEX (Kulkarni et al.,

2012) was such an experiment over Indian region in which cloud rainfall processes have been
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studied in details.

In the present study evaluation has been done with respect to increase in rainfall due
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to seeding considering station level rainfall data. Climatology over the Karnataka state is
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given in Section 2. The success of the program depends on the proper planning and effective

implementation, details of which are given in Section 3.

For estimating percentage increase, accumulated rainfalls at stations within four hours

after seeding are compared with the accumulated rainfalls prior to seeding from 0830 IST

(IST is Indian Standard Time, IST= UTC + 5.30) until time of seeding. In the randomised

cloud seeding programs, there are fixed target and control areas. Manton et al. (2011; 2017)
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discussed the analysis procedure in the fixed control and target areas in detail. However, the

conditions are different in operational programs. Here there are no fixed target-control areas.

Hence, floating control-target area rainfall regression analysis method based on Woodley and

Solak (1990), Griffith et al. (2015) has been used to estimate natural rainfall that would have

occurred without seeding. Here control-target areas change with time depending on the area

of the seeding, hence termed as floating target-control areas. In order to understand

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mechanisms which lead to increase in rainfalls, dynamical features of the atmosphere are

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studied. Section 4 describes the rainfall and wind data used in the study. Methodology is

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given in Section 5 and results of the analysis are given in Section 6. Roles of large scale

dynamics in affecting the increase in rainfall are discussed in Section 7. Conclusions are
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given in Section 8.
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2. Climatology of Karnataka State

Fig. 1a shows map of India and location of Karnataka state in India. Fig. 1b shows
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district map of Karnataka along with the position of the radars with radial coverage (200 km).

The state of Karnataka is divided into three subdivisions for the meteorological purposes.
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These are: North Interior Karnataka (NIK), South Interior Karnataka (SIK) and Coastal

Karnataka (CK). NIK and SIK subdivisions lie on the lee side of the Western Ghats (WG)
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mountains.
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Fig. 2 and Table S1 show summer monsoon (June- September) rainfall climatology of

the state of Karnataka (IMD, 1984). There is a strong spatial variability in the rainfall from

western to eastern side of the state (Fig. 2). The CK receives monsoon rainfall of 300 cm and

more, and the eastern part of the state receives rainfall of 30-40 cm. The low rainfalls over

NIK and SIK subdivisions are due to dynamic effects of the WG (Narkhedkar et al., 2015).

These subdivisions are termed as rain-shadow regions. Rainfalls over these subdivisions
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show a bimodal distribution with peaks in July and September over NIK and in July and

October over SIK (Table S1). Mean monsoon rainfalls in September and October in NIK and

SIK are 155.5, 104.4 mm and 132.3, 142.2 mm, respectively (Parthasarathy et al., 1995). This

amounts to mean daily rainfall of ~ 4.3 mm. In these two subdivisions, rainfall continues

beyond monsoon season in the month of October and in early part of November. This is due

to prevalence of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the latitudes of Karnataka

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during withdrawal phase of monsoon. Monthly rainfall distribution reflects the convective

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precipitation related to seasonal migration of the heat equator (Gunnell, 1997). Total area of

all the subdivisions is 191507 km2 out of which the SIK and NIK subdivisions occupy

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173066 km2 (~ 90% of the total area) (Parthasarathy et al., 1987). At surface, wind direction
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varies from southwest to northwest with speed in the range 10-15 km per hour (IMD, 1984).

The winds strengthen with height attaining maximum westerly wind at 850 hPa level. The
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strong winds at 850 hPa are due to existence of low level westerly jet (LLWJ) over peninsular

India in monsoon season. Above that level winds change to easterly direction (Rao, 1976).
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Most of the agriculture in these subdivisions depends on the monsoon rainfall. Failure

of rainfall over rain-shadow subdivisions causes a great impact on the economy of the state.
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The State of Karnataka received below normal rainfall in the months of June-July 2017.

Kothawale and Munot (1998) showed that the probabilities of occurrences of droughts over
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the Karnataka state are high when rainfalls in June and July are deficit. In order to mitigate
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upcoming drought like situation, GoK took decision of conducting cloud seeding program for

a period of three months from mid August to mid November 2017 to augment rainfall in the

Karnataka State.

3. Program Implementation
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The seeding operations were carried out by M/s Hoysala Projects Pvt. Ltd.,

Bengaluru. It teamed up with Weather Modification International (WMI), USA for the field

work. Tremendous progress has resulted in the past decade in the field of cloud seeding. All

the latest techniques have been used in the program. The cloud seeding operations were done

using aerial method. Three C-band radars were operated from Bengaluru, Gadag and

Shorapur (Fig. 1b). These radars covered about 90% area of the Karnataka State. Two

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pressurized aircraft - N267CB and N6111V were deployed for seeding with hygroscopic and

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glaciogenic flares. The aircraft were instrumented to measure cloud liquid water content,

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updraft/downdraft velocities, and the locations of the seeding. Also they had racks for

housing the flares. The aircraft were equipped with communication links between radar
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scientists at the ground and pilots in the aircraft. Thus, it indicates that the approach used here

was modern and latest. The field operations were carried out from Bengaluru and Gadag.
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GPS radiosondes were launched daily from Gadag, 2-3 hours prior to seeding

operations. This provided information regarding the winds and thermodynamic state of the
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atmosphere in the afternoon of the seeding day. The Weather Research Forecast (WRF)

model was run twice daily. High resolution (3 km) forecasts of weather and cloud
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microphysical parameters were made available for the operations. The WRF forecasts had a

good skill in predicting of weather conditions over the study area. The scientists involved in
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the program used their knowledge of synoptic meteorology and local climatology to
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supplement the WRF short range forecasts. Daily soil moisture distribution has been derived

from satellite data. Daily soil moisture maps were prepared to provide guidance for the

seeding priorities. For the first time, the soil moisture parameter has been used in the

operational cloud seeding programs in the world.

For administrative purposes, the Karnataka State is divided into 30 districts (Fig. 1b).

Each district is subdivided into number of Taluks. The taluks are further subdivided into
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Hobalis. The Hobali is the smallest unit with spatial scale of 5 km. Table S2 shows the

seeding statistics of the program. Total hours of seeding were 286.51, total flares used were

1302 (out of these 794 were hygroscopic and 508 were glaciogenic), seeding events were

781, Hobalis covered were 702, Taluks covered were 110 and districts covered were 28. This

clearly indicates that the seeding was carried out over a large area of the Karnataka State.

From this table it is clear that on an average 2 flares were used per event (1302/781). Further

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daily statistics of the number of hygroscopic and glaciogenic flares used for the seeding is

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given in Table S3. It is seen from this table that on most of the days one type of flare was

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used except on three days (3, 9 and 25 October 2017) when both types of flares were used.

However, on these three days the regions of hygroscopic seeding were different from those of
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glaciogenic seeding. From Table S3 it is observed that on an average 21/24

hygroscopic/glaciogenic flares were used per day. The hygroscopic and glaciogenic flares
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were from the Ice Crystal Engineering, North Dakota, USA. The hygroscopic flares

contained CaCl2 (calcium chloride) as the hygroscopic material. The glaciogenic flares
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contained silver iodide (AgI) as the seeding material. Hygroscopic flares were of burn in

place (BIP) type. The glaciogenic flares were of both ejectable and BIP types. Each
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hygroscopic flare weighs one kg. The particle size distribution and other details of the

hygroscopic flares are given in Krauss et al. (2011). The details of glaciogenic flares are
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given on the web site of Ice Crystal Engineering (http://iceflares.com).

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4. Data

Quality controlled rainfall data from 6000, well distributed telemetric raingauge

stations from Karnataka State Natural Disaster Management Centre (KSNDMC) for the

period 22 August to 15 October (study period) has been used. The locations of the stations

(small black dots) are shown in the Fig. 1b. The data has spatial resolution of 5 km and
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temporal resolution of 15 minutes. In order to understand the seeding “opportunity window”

diurnal cycle of convection is studied using hourly rainfall data of 11 self recording raingauge

(SRRG) stations in Karnataka. The data for the period of 45 years has been collected from

India Meteorological Department (IMD). Table S4 gives the SRRG station names along with

the geographical co-ordinates. In order to understand the role of large scale circulation in the

development of convection, NCEP wind data (06 and 12 UTC) on 6 October at 2.5º x 2.5º

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resolutions has been used. The parameters include relative humidity (RH, %), vorticity (s -1

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*105 ), and vertical velocity (Omega, Pa s-1 ) at 1000, 850 and 700 hPa levels.

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5. Methodology
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There are two methods for evaluation of the seeding efficacy. These are based on: (1)

radar and (2) surface rainfall datasets. In the radar based method, the cloud parameters viz.
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size, volume, height, life period, precipitation flux and rain mass of the seeded cloud (target)

are compared with similar unseeded cloud (control) in the vicinity (WMO, 1999). In the past
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South African and Mexico experiments, the evaluations of seeding efficacy have been done

using radar data.

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The radar derived rainfall is a remotely-measured estimate and the people in general,

specifically farmers are interested in knowing amount of rainfall at the ground. There are a
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few limitations in deriving the rainfall using radar data. The quantity of radar derived rainfall
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depends upon type of Z-R relationship which changes with time for the same location and

type of clouds (Woodley and Rosenfeld, 2004). Uncertainty in estimation of rainfalls is more

in marine clouds than continental clouds. Padmakumari et al. (2018) showed that the clouds

over peninsular India have maritime character. Secondly, a large uncertainty also exists

because of evaporation and horizontal drift of cloud drops due to strong winds below the

cloud base. Over this region the cloud bases are high (Morwal et al., 2016) and there exists
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LLWJ at 850 hPa (Rao, 1976). Gunn and Marshall (1955) showed that the small rain drops

are drifted in the shear environment before reaching to ground as far as 20 miles (32 km).

Pisharoty (1962) showed that the raindrops coming from the cloud base drift to high

horizontal distances (~30 km) before reaching to the ground due to strong LLWJ.

The second and more direct approach is to use surface rainfall data in the target and

control areas. In the operational programs in order to extract maximum benefit, every

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seedable cloud is treated. There are no fixed control-target areas in the operational programs.

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Therefore, an approach of floating control-target area (Woodley and Rosenfeld, 2004) has

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been used for the evaluation of seeding efficacy.

In order to estimate percentage increase in rainfalls, accumulated rainfalls within 4-

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hours after seeding are compared with accumulated rainfalls prior to seeding from 0830 IST

until time of seeding. Absolute increase in rainfalls, in top 5% cases, has been estimated
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using floating control-target area method. This gives an upper bound by which seeding

methodology can enhance rainfall. Accumulated rainfalls within 4-hours after seeding are
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considered as rainfalls impacted by the seeding. The justification for considering 4-hour

period is given in the subsection 6.2. The rainfalls of these stations are considered as target-
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area rainfalls. All stations in the surrounding areas which are not influenced by the seeding do

not show any increase in rainfall within 4 hours after seeding. The rainfalls at these stations
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during the seeding period are natural rainfalls and hence constitute control-area rainfalls.
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Care is taken to select control-area stations which are not contaminated by seeding or drifting

of seeded clouds. This has been ascertained by considering the wind direction in the lower

levels. Mostly the areas in the upwind side of the target-area are taken as control-areas. The

statistical relationships are developed between the rainfalls of target and control areas using

daily rainfall data of both the areas excluding the rainfall on the seeded day. Such linear
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regression approach has been used to estimate natural rainfall in the target area based on

rainfall in the control area by Manton et al. (2011), Manton and Warren (2017).

The procedure followed for statistical analysis is as follows. The first step in

developing the regression model is to prepare time series of rainfalls of all the stations in the

control and target areas for the study period. The days on which the seedings are done are

removed from the series. Further the stations in control and target areas which have zero

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rainfalls on a large number of days (> 10) are excluded from the analysis. The zero rainfalls

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at the stations in the control and target areas produce artificial high correlations. Therefore,

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all the stations in the control and target areas do not enter into model development. Only

stations in control and target areas having rainfalls on common period of at least 45 days are
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considered for further analysis. Correlation coefficients (CCs) between the rainfalls of two

areas are tested for the stability by considering the sliding windows of minimum 30
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observations. Statistically significant CCs are considered for developing the models. As the

rainfall data of the current season has been considered in the model development, the drifts in
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the relationships due to inter-annual variability of rainfall do not arise. Based on the

regression models, the natural rainfall at the target-area has been estimated using the rainfall
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of control-area on the seeding day. The enhanced rainfall due to seeding is estimated as the

difference between the actual and the natural rainfall that would have occurred in absence of
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seeding.
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6. Results

6.1 Diurnal Variation of Rainfall

Fig. 3a, b, c show diurnal variations of rainfalls in the three months (August-October)

at three representative stations in the NIK, SIK and CK subdivisions, respectively. The

diurnal variations of rainfalls of other stations in these meteorological subdivisions are

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similar to these three stations. The station Gadag in NIK and Bengaluru in SIK (Fig. 3a, b)

show strong peaks in the afternoon hours and very low peak in the morning hours in all the

three months. Agumbe in CK (Fig. 3c) shows bimodal distribution with primary peak in the

afternoon (16 IST) and a secondary peak of medium amplitude in the early morning (4 IST)

hours. This clearly indicates that the seeding window in the NIK and SIK subdivisions is in

the afternoon hours.

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6.2 Percentage increase in rainfall due to seeding

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6.2.1 Cumulative rainfalls at the stations within 4-hours after seeding

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Fig. 4 shows accumulated station rainfalls on 6 October 2017 in the Gadag taluk

within 6 hours after seeding. It has been shown in the South African and Mexico experiments
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that the differences between seeded and unseeded clouds in terms of precipitation flux, rain

mass start appearing after 30 minutes of seeding (WMO, 1999). This indicates that time
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required to trigger the rainfall process in warm clouds after seeding is about 30 minutes.

Within 30 minutes the clouds move in downwind direction with the prevailing winds in the
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lower tropospheric levels. Therefore, stations lying just below the seeded cloud may not

report any precipitation but the stations at distances away from the seeding locations report
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precipitation, which has been observed here.

It is seen from Fig. 4 that after seeding a steep increase in rainfall occur in 15-30
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minutes to 3 hours. In most of the cases, the accumulation of rainfall saturates after 4-hours
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of seeding. This type of feature is seen at other stations and on other seeding days. Therefore,

accumulated rainfalls within 4-hours of seeding have been taken as rainfall impacted by the

seeding.

6.2.2 Rainfalls at seeding locations after seeding

Rainfalls of stations within the taluk are averaged for the purpose of comparison. This

averaging is done to estimate increase in rainfall at taluk basis area. Fig. 5a shows the taluk
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averaged accumulated rainfalls during the period 0830 IST until seeding time (black line) and

within 4-hours after seeding (red line) in both hygroscopic and glaciogenic seeding cases. Out

of the total 781 seeded taluks, 618 taluks showed increase in accumulated rainfall within 4

hours after seeding. Total 319 cases out of 618 showed increase in accumulated rainfalls ≥ 3

mm and these are shown in Fig. 5b. It is seen from these figures that in all the cases, there is

an increase in the accumulated rainfalls within 4-hours after seeding compared to the

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accumulated rainfalls prior to seeding. Qualitatively, this shows a first signal of success of

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seeding operations. The average accumulated rainfall considering all the stations is 5.5

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mm/area by considering base as taluk.

Fig. 5c and 5d are similar to Fig. 5a and 5b, respectively but for hygroscopic (black
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bars) and glaciogenic (red bars) cases separated. It is clearly evident from these two figures

that the hygroscopic seeding were carried out in August and September and glaciogenic
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seeding was carried out in October.

6.2.3 Frequency distribution of increase in rainfalls

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Fig. 5e shows the frequency distribution of the accumulated rainfalls within 4-hours

after seeding. The maximum frequency occurs at 0-2 mm interval. The distribution is
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positively skewed which is consistent with many of the cloud parameters (cloud area, cloud

top height etc.) observed over the rain-shadow region (Morwal et al., 2016; 2018a).
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Maximum accumulated rainfall of the order of 55 mm has been observed but with very low
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frequency. Table S5 gives the frequency distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4-

hour after seeding.

6.2.4 Percentage increase in rainfall

The mean accumulated rainfall at the seeding locations is composed of both due to

seeding as well as due to natural rainfall that would have occurred within that time. It is

assumed that mean natural rainfall over the region is equal to the mean daily rainfall during
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the study period which is equal to 4.3 mm (as discussed in Section 2). This assumption is

quite realistic and the order of amount of natural rainfall assumed is near to that estimated

using regression model which is discussed in the next section. Thus increase in rainfall is 1.2

mm (5.5 - 4.3 mm) above the natural rainfall, which is equal to 27.9% increase in rainfall at

taluk level. This increase in rainfalls is higher than observed in IITM’s 11 year program of

24%. The higher increase in rainfall may be attributed to the use of modern techniques viz.,

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radar for identification of seedable clouds, flares for releasing the seeding material and use of

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glaciogenic seeding. In the past IITM’s program, hygroscopic seeding was done by spreading

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salt particles at the cloud base. The flares used in this program provide hygroscopic particles

of desired size and of sufficient concentration. In addition, glaciogenic seeding was carried
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out in this program. The percentage increase in rainfall in this program is higher than that

observed by Manton et al. (2011) over Australian region in orographic winter cloud seeding
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program. Griffith at el. (2015) estimated increase in rainfalls in Upper Santa Ynez (eastern

part of Santa Barbara County) between 19-21% in 24 cases and in Huasna-Alamo area
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(northern part of Santa Barbara County and southern part of San Luis Obispo County) 9% in

27 seeded seasons. This suggests that in the present case the response of monsoon clouds to
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seeding is better than that over other regions in the world. The reasons may be attributed to

existence of moisture in the troposphere up to high levels and wind shear in the lower
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troposphere. The wind shear generates mechanical turbulence for transport of moisture from
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surface to cloud base and favourable large scale conditions for cloud growth.

6.3 Maximum absolute increase in rainfall

It is seen that percentage increase in rainfall is 27.9%. However, actual increase in

rainfall is 1.2 mm/area at taluk basis. The next question is what is the maximum possible

increase in rainfall in absolute terms? To estimate this, floating control-target area rainfall

analysis has been carried out for 7 cases in top 5% increased rainfall cases. These cases are
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identified from Fig. 5a. The cases are taken to represent both types of seeding. These are

distributed well in the three month program period, as one in August, three in September and

three in October. Four hygroscopic cases are from August and September and three

glaciogenic cases are from October.

6.3.1 Glaciogenic Seeding Cases

a) 6 October 2017

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Fig. 6a shows the area over which the cloud seeding was conducted from 2 to 8

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October 2017. On 6 October total 24 glaciogenic flares were fired in the mission (magenta

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circles) over the Haveri District. Fig. 6b shows track of the seeding aircraft. Fig. 6c shows

seeding locations (open red circles) and stations where the rainfalls within 4-hours of seeding
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showed increase (solid green circles). It is seen that most of the stations lying at a distances of

~20 km and more in north east direction show increase in rainfalls. The control-area (solid
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red circles bounded by blue contour) is selected to include the stations lying southwest of the

seeding locations. Three target-areas (TG1, TG2 and TG3) are selected by including the
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stations (solid blue circles bounded by red contour) impacted by the seeding. As discussed

above the stations in the target area having nonzero rainfall data for the common period
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during the study period are selected for the model development.

The CCs between the rainfall series of control and target areas are found significant at
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95% level (Table 1). This clearly shows that the rainfalls in control and target areas are
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highly related as seen from linear regression analysis. Three regression equations for TG1,

TG2 and TG3 are given in the Table 1. Based on the 24-hour accumulated rainfall in the

control-area on 6 October 2017, the rainfalls in the three target-areas (TG1, TG2 and TG3)

are estimated. These are the rainfalls that would have occurred naturally. The rainfalls due to

seeding are the difference between the observed and the natural rainfalls. Rainfall at TG1

within 4-hours after seeding is 20.5 mm, while the natural rainfall would have been 3.9 mm.
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In all the cases, natural rainfall has been seen around 4-5 mm. This figure is consistent with

mean daily rainfall over the region in the study period (4.3 mm) as stated above. The increase

in rainfall is 16.6 mm (Table 1). Similarly increases in rainfalls at TG2 and TG3 are 31.8 and

13.3 mm, respectively. Mean increase in rainfall over all the three target-areas on this day is

20.6 mm.

b) 11 October 2017

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Fig. 7a shows control and three target-areas (TG1, TG2 and TG3) for 11 October

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2017. Table 1 shows the regression equations between the control-area and three target-areas.

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Increase in rainfalls due to cloud seeding at TG1, TG2 and TG3 areas are 8.3, 14.8 and 9.6

mm, respectively. The mean increase in rainfall over these three target-areas is 10.9 mm.
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c) 16 October 2017
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Fig. 7b shows control and two target-areas (TG1 and TG2) on the 16 October 2017.

Table 1 shows the regression equations between the control-area and two target-areas.
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Increases in rainfalls due to cloud seeding are 27.5 and 28.7 mm at TG1 and TG2,

respectively. The mean increase in rainfall over these two target-areas is 28.1 mm.
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Thus, the mean increase in rainfalls over target-areas due to cloud seeding is 20.6, 10.9

and 28.1 mm on 6, 11 and 16 October 2017, respectively in the glaciogenic cases.

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6.3.2 Hygroscopic seeding cases

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a) 26 August 2017

Fig. 8a shows control and target-area for the 26 August 2017 seeding case. In this

case two target-areas (TG1 and TG2) are considered. The regression equations for the two

target-areas are given in the Table 2. Increase in rainfalls is 4.0 and 6.5 mm at TG1 and TG2,

respectively. Mean increase in rainfall at these two target-areas is 5.3 mm due to hygroscopic

cloud seeding.
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b) 8 September 2017

Fig. 8b shows control and target-areas for the 8 September 2017 seeding case. In this

case two target-areas (TG1 and TG2) are considered. The regression equations for the two

target-areas are given in the Table 2. Increase in rainfalls is: 18.8 and 3.2 mm at TG1 and

TG2, respectively. Mean increase in rainfall at these two target-areas is 11.0 mm due to cloud

seeding.

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c) 16 September 2017

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Fig. 8c shows control and target-areas for the 16 September 2017 seeding case. In this

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case three target-areas (TG1, TG2 and TG3) are considered. The regression equations for the

three target-areas are given in the Table 2. Increase in rainfalls is: 15.6, 12.2 and 5.5 mm at
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TG1, TG2 and TG3, respectively. Mean increase in rainfall at these three targets is 11.1 mm

due to cloud seeding.

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d) 24 September 2017

Fig. 8d shows control and target areas for the 24 September 2017 seeding case. In this
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case two target-areas (TG1 and TG2) are considered. The regression equations for the two

target-areas are given in the Table 2. Increase in rainfalls is: 17.2 and 24.3 mm at TG1 and
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TG2, respectively. Mean increase in rainfall at these two targets is 20.8 mm due to cloud

seeding.
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In hygroscopic case, the mean increase in rainfalls at the target-areas on 26 August, 8,

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16 and 24 September 2017 are 5.3, 11.0, 11.1 and 20.8 mm, respectively. In these cases, the

average increase in rainfall is ~12 mm. The mean increase in rainfalls over target-areas due to

glaciogenic cloud seeding are 20.6, 10.9 and 28.1 mm on 6, 11 and 16 October 2017,

respectively. Maximum increases of 28.1 and 20.8 mm have been observed in glaciogenic

and hygroscopic seeding cases, respectively. These increases are substantial compared to

mean daily rainfall of 4-5 mm. Thus, 5 to 7 fold increase in the rainfall is advantageous not
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only for the agriculture sector but even for hydrological sector for increasing the dam water

level. Higher increase in rainfalls in glaciogenic cases may be related to increase in cloud

growth due to additional release of latent heat in the transformation of supercooled water to

ice particles. In these cases we have considered the top 5% events of increase in rainfalls.

From the radar data it was noticed that the clouds associated with these cases were bigger in

size. This indicates that in case of bigger clouds the glaciogenic seeding showed better

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response.

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However, when we consider all the events consisting of shallow, medium and large

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clouds the average increase in accumulated rainfalls within the 4 hours after seeding in

hygroscopic (400 cases) and glaciogenic (218 cases) seeding cases are 6.1 and 4.3 mm,
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respectively as seen from Fig. 5c. The difference in means of hygroscopic and glaciogenic

cases is significant at 99% level of significance using t-test. This indicates that hygroscopic
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seeding produces higher rainfall as compared to glaciogenic seeding over the study region in

the small and medium clouds.

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6.4 Total increase of water due to seeding

The question posed in any operational program is what is the total amount of
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additional water generated due to seeding? A simple estimate has been done here using

increase in rainfall at taluk level. There are 227 taluks in the state. Area of the state is 191507
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km2 . Hence, mean area of each taluk is 843 km2 . The numbers of taluks seeded are 781. It
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turns out that each taluk has been seeded more than one time during the seeding operation.

Mean increase in rainfall at Taluk area basis is 1.2 mm. Hence additional water generated due

to seeding is 843 × 1.2 × 781 km2 mm. It is equal to 2.1 TMC (Thousand Million Cubic feet).

This is a conservative estimate considering average area of the Taluk. Thus, the program has

generated a large quantity of water. Benefit due to the amount of crop saved due to rainfall by
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seeding is indirect benefit which is much more than the direct benefit. The benefit to survival

of agriculture crops is indirect effect of cloud seeding.

7. Large Scale Atmospheric Features on the Seeding Days

On day-to-day basis atmospheric conditions vary due to different thermodynamic and

dynamic factors. Advection of dry air in the middle tropospheric levels and inversion in the

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lower and middle troposphere are unfavourable conditions for formation and growth of

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convective clouds. Such atmospheric state is not suited for cloud seeding operations even

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though clouds are present. The clouds have small vertical extent and low liquid water content.

On the other hand, if synoptic systems such as low, depression, low level troughs etc.
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are present over the area, the atmosphere is conducive for formation of convective clouds,

which produce plenty of rainfall naturally. Such atmospheric state is also not suitable for
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cloud seeding operations. The proper seeding window on day-to-day basis lies in between

these two extreme conditions (Hess, 1974).

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The seeding on 6 October 2017 yielded good response as seen above. Therefore,

atmospheric dynamic features on this day are analysed to examine/ to address what caused a
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very good response which resulted in increase in rainfall by 20.6 mm.

Fig. 9a shows the distribution of vorticity (s-1 ×105 ) over Indian region at 06 and 12
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UTC at 1000 (Bottom Row), 850 (Middle Row) and 700 hPa (Top Row) levels. Positive
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vorticity prevailed over the Karnataka state at both the hours. This positive vorticity was

associated with convergence which resulted into large scale upward motion of the air. RH

was more than 80% at these three levels (Fig 9b). The moisture incursion over the region

occurred due to south-westerly winds from Arabian Sea at 1000 hPa and due to easterly

winds from Bay of Bengal at 850 and 700 hPa levels. The vertical velocity (Omega, Pa s -1 )

was upwards at these three levels over the Karnataka area (Fig. 9c). The moderate vertical
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motion and prevalence of moisture were conducive for formation of convective clouds whose

tops reached beyond the freezing level. The solar heating in the afternoon hours further

fuelled the clouds for vertical and horizontal growths. These clouds were found to be the

perfect candidates for glaciogenic seeding. The glaciogenic seeding resulted into a good

positive response of increase of 20.6 mm rainfall in the target-area. Thus the good response

for the seeding is the combined effect of favourable dynamical conditions, moisture

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availability and solar heating which lead to formation of cumulus congestus clouds over the

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region. This indicates that if proper window of seeding is identified and seeding is carried

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out, increase in rainfall ~5 times the mean rainfall could be achieved. This finding is very

important for planning the cloud seeding operations in future over this region..
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8. Conclusions
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The present paper shows for the first time the response of seeding in terms of increase

in rainfall at the ground. Mean accumulated rainfall at all the stations in 4-hours after seeding
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in the Taluk based area is 5.5 mm/area. The mean increase in rainfall is 1.2 mm (5.5 - 4.3

mm) above the natural rainfall (4.3 mm), which amounts to 27.9% at Taluk average rainfall.
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The frequency distribution of increased rainfall due to seeding shows maximum value in the

interval 0-2 mm. The maximum is found at 55 mm but with very low frequency. This
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analysis is robust as it is based on 618 seeding cases.

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Approach of floating control-target area has been applied to evaluate upper limit in

enhancement in rainfall due to seeding in 7 cases in the top 5% of increased rainfall cases.

These are well distributed in three months of the seeding program. In hygroscopic case, the

mean increase in rainfall was ~12 mm/target-area. In the glaciogenic seeding case, mean

increase in rainfall was 19.9 mm/target-area. Higher increase in glaciogenic cases have been

attributed to growth of cloud due to release of latent heat of freezing in bigger clouds.
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However, no direct physical link of chain of events has been studied. In these bigger cloud

cases, 5 to 7 fold increase over daily mean rainfall has been observed. This large increase has

been found due to tapping of favourable large scale atmospheric conditions for the growth

and responses of cloud to seeding. This finding suggests that if at a time small, medium and

large clouds are present, then priority should be given to the large clouds, then medium

clouds for the seeding. The benefit due to seeding has been estimated by computing

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additional water generated.

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The increase in enhancement has been shown in the paper using ground rainfall data.

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Authors are unaware of such type of analysis from any other operational seeding program in

the world. Therefore, the results in the paper may find basis for operational programs in the
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world and also to establish a long term policy for cloud seeding in the state of Karnataka.
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Acknowledgments
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Authors express their sincere thanks to Director, IITM and Ministry of Earth Sciences

(MoES), Govt. of India for encouragement in carrying out this study. The authors gratefully
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acknowledge the NCEP/NCAR for reanalysis data (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd) for

dynamic parameters, KSNDMC, Karnataka for the high resolution surface rainfall data,
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Government of Karnataka (GoK) for providing the facilities and providing the seeding data
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and IMD for providing the Karnataka rainfall data for longer duration. The authors are

thankful to the anonymous reviewers for the fruitful and constructive comments/suggestion

which helped to improve the scientific quality of the manuscript. This cloud seeding program

was envisaged and executed due to untiring efforts of (i) Shri H. K. Patil, Minister of

RD&PR, GoK, (ii) Shri T. M. Vijay Bhaskar, Chief Secretary, GoK, (iii) Dr. N. Nagambika

Devi, Principal Secretary, GoK, Dept of RD&PR, (iv) Shri H. P. Prakash, Commissioner &
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Secretary, RDWS&SD, Dr. Chidanand Murthy, Dr. Sudhakar Reddy and Shri J. V. Vikiran.

The program was daily monitored and guided by monitoring and evaluation team consisting

of Dr. V. Shiva Prakash, Prof. Manikiam, Dr. V. Mudkavi and Dr. Ajit Tyagi. The scientific

committee under the chairmanship of Prof. Bhat reviewed the activities from time to time.

The IMD scientists, radar experts supported the program on day to day basis. Authors are

thankful to these officials for carrying out the program successfully which has generated

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quality data used in this study. The program has been executed in a planned and systematic

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way by M/S. Hoysala Projects Pvt. Ltd., Bangalore and M/S. Weather Modification

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International., USA.

Supplementary data
Supplementary material
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Fig. 1: (a) Map of India showing the location of the state of Karnataka. (b) District map of
State of Karnataka showing the location of Telemetric Raingauge (TRG) stations (black

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dots), location of three radars installed at Shorapur, Gadag and Bengaluru (red triangles) with
their range (200 km radius shown by red circles).
Fig. 2: Climatological rainfall during the summer monsoon season (June-September) over the
different districts (bounded by thick black lines) of State of Karnataka.
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Fig. 3: Diurnal variation of rainfall in the three months (August-October) at three
representative stations in the three subdivisions (a) North Interior Karnataka (Gadag), (b)
South Interior Karnataka (Bengaluru) and (c) Coastal Karnataka (Agumbe).
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Fig. 4: Accumulated station rainfalls within 6 hours after seeding on 6 October 2017 in the
Gadag taluk.
Fig. 5: (a) The taluk averaged accumulated rainfalls at the seeding locations during the period
0830 IST till seeding time (black) and within 4 hours after seeding (red). (b) The taluks
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showing increase in average rainfalls ≥ 3 mm within 4 hours after seeding. (c) Same as Fig.
5a but for hygroscopic (black columns) and glaciogenic (red columns) seeding events. (d)
Same as Fig. 5b but for hygroscopic (black columns) and glaciogenic (red columns) seeding
events. (e) The frequency distribution of the increase in rainfall within 4 hours after seeding.
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The vertical black dashed lines in Fig. 5a-d delineate the periods associated with Event
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Numbers (EN): August (EN: 1-51), September (EN: 52-452), October (EN: 453-743) and
November (EN: 744-781). The numbers in brackets indicate the average values of
accumulated rainfall within 4-hours after seeding.
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Fig. 6: (a) The location of glaciogenic seeding area on 6 October is shown by magenta
circles. (b) The track of the seeding aircraft is shown by red line. (c) Location of (i) stations
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which showed increase in rainfall after seeding (green solid circles), (ii) target-areas (TG1,
TG2, TG3) bounded by red boundaries around the target stations (blue solid circles), (iii)
control-area bounded by blue boundary around the control stations (red solid circles) and (iv)
seeding location (open red circle).
Fig. 7: Same as Fig. 6c except for 11 and 16 October 2017. On these days the seeding was
conducted using glaciogenic flares.
Fig. 8: Same as Fig. 6c except for 26 August, 8, 16 and 24 September 2017 when
hygroscopic seeding was conducted.
Fig. 9: (a) Wind field and relative vorticity (s-1 *105 ), (b) wind field and relative humidity (%)
and (c) wind field and Omega (Pa s-1 ) on 6 October 2017.
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Table 1: Control-target area correlation coefficient, level of significance, regression equation,

rainfall at (i) target-area within 4-hours of seeding, (ii) control-area 24-hour accumulated,
natural rainfall and rainfall due to seeding are given for the glaciogenic seeding cases
conducted on 6, 11 and 16 October 2017.

Target N Corr Signi. Equation Targe Cont Rain Rain

Level t rol 24 Natu Seed
Rain hr ral (mm)
With- rain (mm)
in 4- (mm)

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hrs of
Seed
(mm)

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6 October 2017
[Control(Shivamogga: Soraba, Shikaripur), Target 1(Haveri: Ranebennur), Target

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2(Haveri: Hanagal ), Target 3(Haveri: Shiggaon)]
Target 1 37 0.324 95% Y=3.43+0.32X 20.5 1.5 3.9 16.6
Target 2 30 0.41 95% Y=3.45+0.29X 35.7 1.5 3.9 31.8
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Target 3 34 0.45 99% Y=2.73+0.32X 16.5 1.5 3.2 13.3
Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 6 October 2017 20.6

11 October 2017
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[Control(Dharwad: Hubballi), Target 1(Gadag: Gadag), Target 2(Gadag: Ron), Target

3(Gadag: Naragund, Dharwad: Navalgund)]
Target 1 42 0.46 99% Y=2.77+0.48X 10.9 0.0 2.8 8.3
Target 2 44 0.43 99% Y=2.66+0.23X 17.5 0.0 2.7 14.8
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Target 3 30 0.48 99% Y=4.0+0.50X 13.6 0.0 4.0 9.6

Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 11 October 2017 10.9
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16 October 2017
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[Control(Belagavi: Belagavi), Target 1(Belagavi: Khanapur), Target 2(Dharwad:

Dharwad)]
Target 1 32 0.71 99% Y=1.82+0.63X 29.3 0.0 1.8 27.5
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Target 2 43 0.57 99% Y=2.28+0.64X 31.0 0.0 2.3 28.7

Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 16 October 2017 28.1
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Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to Glaciogenic seeding 19.9

Table 2: Control-target area correlation coefficient, level of significance, regression equation,

rainfall at (i) target-area within 4-hours of seeding, (ii) control-area 24-hour accumulated,
natural rainfall and rainfall due to seeding are given for the hygroscopic seeding cases
conducted on 26 August, 8, 16 and 24 September 2017.

Target N Corr Signi. Equation Targe Contro Rain Rain

Level t Rain l 24 hr Natura Seed
With- rain l (mm) (mm)
in 4 (mm)
hrs of
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Seed
(mm)
26 August 2017
[Control(Bengaluru Urban: Anekal), Target 1(Bengaluru Rural: Hoskote), Target
2(Bengaluru Urban: Bengaluru East)]
Target 1 41 0.58 99% Y=7.29+0.57X 11.3 0 7.3 4.0
Target 2 42 0.59 99% Y=5.62+0.59X 12.1 0 5.6 6.5
Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 26 August 2017 5.3

8 September 2017
[Control(Belagavi: Bailhongal, Soundatti), Target 1(Dharwad: Dharwad), Target

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2(Belagavi: Soundatti)]
Target 1 40 0.44 99% Y=3.54+0.54X 29.6 13.3 10.7 18.8
Target 2 37 0.40 99% Y=2.13+0.44X 11.2 13.3 8.0 3.2

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Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 8 September 2017 11.0

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16 September 2017
[Control(Gadag: Gadag ), Target 1(Belagavi: Soundatti), Target 2(Dharwad: Navalgund),
Target 3(Dharwad: Dharwad)]
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Target 1 42 0.50 99% Y=2.65+0.62X 18.5 0.4 2.9 15.6
Target 2 39 0.55 99% Y=6.19+0.77X 18.7 0.4 6.5 12.2
Target 3 44 0.34 99% Y=4.64+0.38X 10.3 0.4 4.8 5.5
Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 16 September 2017 11.1
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24 September 2017
[Control(Dharwad: Kundgol, Hubballi; Gadag: Gadag), Target 1(Dharwad: Navalgund;
Gadag: Naragund), Target 2(Gadag: Gadag, Ron)]
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Target 1 45 0.37 99% Y=6.61+0.35X 24.5 2.1 7.3 17.2

Target 2 45 0.54 99% Y=3.70+0.54X 29.1 2.1 4.8 24.3
Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to seeding on 24 September 2017 20.8
T

Mean increase in rainfall at the target due to Hygroscopic seeding 12.0

C EP

Fig. 1: (a) Map of India showing the location of the state of Karnataka. (b) District map of
State of Karnataka showing the location of Telemetric Raingauge (TRG) stations (black
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dots), location of three radars installed at Shorapur, Gadag and Bengaluru (red triangles) with
their range (200 km radius shown by red circles).
Fig. 2: Climatological rainfall during the summer monsoon season (June-September) over the
different districts (bounded by thick black lines) of State of Karnataka.
Fig. 3: Diurnal variation of rainfall in the three months (August-October) at three
representative stations in the three subdivisions (a) North Interior Karnataka (Gadag), (b)
South Interior Karnataka (Bengaluru) and (c) Coastal Karnataka (Agumbe).
Fig. 4: Accumulated station rainfalls within 6 hours after seeding on 6 October 2017 in the
Gadag taluk.
Fig. 5: (a) The taluk averaged accumulated rainfalls at the seeding locations during the period
0830 IST till seeding time (black) and within 4 hours after seeding (red). (b) The taluks
showing increase in average rainfalls ≥ 3 mm within 4 hours after seeding. (c) Same as Fig.
5a but for hygroscopic (black columns) and glaciogenic (red columns) seeding events. (d)
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Same as Fig. 5b but for hygroscopic (black columns) and glaciogenic (red columns) seeding
events. (e) The frequency distribution of the increase in rainfall within 4 hours after seeding.
The vertical black dashed lines in Fig. 5a-d delineate the periods associated with Event
Numbers (EN): August (EN: 1-51), September (EN: 52-452), October (EN: 453-743) and
November (EN: 744-781). The numbers in brackets indicate the average values of
accumulated rainfall within 4-hours after seeding.
Fig. 6: (a) The location of glaciogenic seeding area on 6 October is shown by magenta
circles. (b) The track of the seeding aircraft is shown by red line. (c) Location of (i) stations
which showed increase in rainfall after seeding (green solid circles), (ii) target-areas (TG1,
TG2, TG3) bounded by red boundaries around the target stations (blue solid circles), (iii)
control-area bounded by blue boundaries around the control stations (red solid circles) and

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(iv) seeding location (open red circle).

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Fig. 7: Same as Fig. 6c except for 11 and 16 October 2017. On these days the seeding was
conducted using glaciogenic flares.

SC
Fig. 8: Same as Fig. 6c except for 26 August, 8, 16 and 24 September 2017 when
hygroscopic seeding was conducted.
Fig. 9: (a) Wind field and relative vorticity (s-1 *105 ), (b) wind field and relative humidity
NU
(RH %) and (c) wind field and Omega (Pa s-1 ) on 6 October 2017.

Highlights
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Unique rainfall data at high spatial (5 km) and temporal (15 minute) resolution
First time the response of seeding in terms of increase in rainfall at the ground
Enhancement of rainfall due to seeding by floating control-target area rainfall
Mean increase in rainfalls due to hygroscopic and glaciogenic was ~12 and 19.9 mm
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The average increase of 27.9% at Taluk level rainfall above the natural rainfall (618 events)
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Figure 1
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Figure 9