Today (add an "x" above the current interval) x

Interval 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Days since start of model 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63
Days from today -49 -42 -35 -28 -21 -14 -7 0 7 14

Assumptions Value Description

Starting # of infected 1 The number of infected people at the start of the model
Serial interval (days) 7 Average time it takes for an infected person to transmit the disease.

Case fatality rate
Basic reproduction number (R0)
1% The risk that someone who develops symptoms will eventually die from the infection
2.3 How many people a given patient is likely to infect without control measures. Accord
published on PakMed.gov on February 22, the Maxium-Likelihood (ML) value of CO
for the outbreak at the early stage on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The median
confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstra
method.

Reproduction number (R) 1.5 Effective transmission rate with implementation of control measures. A model publis
of Internal Medicine found that case counts as of February 3 were compatible with r
1.5.

Scenario 1: Uncontrolled spread

Reproductive rate 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Fatality rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Infected 1 2 5 12 28 64 147 338 777 1,787
Total infected 1 3 8 20 48 112 259 597 1,374 3,161
New deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
Total deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5

Scenario 2: With late implementation of controls

Controls implemented (add an "x")
Reproductive rate 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Fatality rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Infected 1 2 5 12 28 64 147 338 777 1,787
Total infected 1 3 8 20 48 112 259 597 1,374 3,161
New deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
Total deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5

Scenario 3: With early implementation of controls

Controls implemented (add an "x")
Reproductive rate 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Fatality rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Infected 1 2 5 12 28 64 147 338 777 1,787
Total infected 1 3 8 20 48 112 259 597 1,374 3,161
New deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
Total deaths 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5

3 scenarios for total deaths caused by COV

140,000

120,000

100,000
Total dealths

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

1 1 1 2 2 2 5 5 5 13 13 13 31 31 31
0
0 7 14 21 28
 1 1 1 2 2 2 5 5 5 13 13 13 31 31 31
0
0 7 14 21 28

A broader view of uncontrolled spread

800,000

700,000

600,000
Total dealths

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000
24,7
1 2 5 13 31 72 167 384 884 2,034 4,679 10,763
0
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 8

Days from first death

How COVID-19 effected Bussineses?
 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
70 77 84 91 98 105 112 119 126 133 140
21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91

How to use this spreadsheet

Change the values in the light green cells in column B to modify the assumptions. Move the "x"
in the top row to reset the days counter to whatever interval you like. Add or remove "x" markers
under Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 to change when the model switches over to the effective
reproduction number ("R" AKA "Re").

Source(s)

e disease. Estimates for the median serial intervial range from 4-4.6 days, to 5-6, to 6.4 or 7.5

ually die from the infection
t control measures. According to a paper
kelihood (ML) value of COVD-19 was 2.28
ss cruise ship. The median with 95%
) estimated by the bootstrap resampling
Studies have estimated the death rate as high as 3.4% and as low as .7%
Estimation of the reproductive number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable
outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.

measures. A model published in the Annals Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus
y 3 were compatible with reduction of R to (2019-nCoV)
Reporting, Epidemic
epidemic growth, and reproduction numbers for the 2019-nCoV epidemic:
understanding control

2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
4,110 9,453 21,742 50,007 115,016 264,537 608,435 1,399,401 3,218,622 7,402,831 17,026,511
7,271 16,724 38,466 88,473 203,489 468,026 ### 2,475,862 5,694,484 13,097,315 30,123,826
8 18 41 95 217 500 1,150 2,645 6,084 13,994 32,186
13 31 72 167 384 884 2,034 4,679 10,763 24,757 56,943

⬇️⬇️ Add or remove an "x" to each interval indicate when coronavirus controls have been
x x x x x x x
2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
4,110 9,453 21,742 50,007 75,011 112,517 168,776 253,164 379,746 569,619 854,429
7,271 16,724 38,466 88,473 163,484 276,001 444,777 697,941 1,077,687 1,647,306 2,501,735
8 18 41 95 217 500 750 1,125 1,688 2,532 3,797
13 31 72 167 384 884 1,634 2,759 4,447 6,979 10,776

⬇️⬇️ Add or remove an "x" to each interval indicate when coronavirus controls have been implemented
x x x x x x x x x x
2.30 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
 4,110 6,165 9,248 13,872 20,808 31,212 46,818 70,227 105,341 158,012 237,018
7,271 13,436 22,684 36,556 57,364 88,576 135,394 205,621 310,962 468,974 705,992
8 18 41 62 92 139 208 312 468 702 1,053
13 31 72 134 226 365 573 885 1,353 2,055 3,108

ed by COVID-19 (early controls, later controls, and

2,034 2
31 31 31 72 72 72 134 167 167 226 384 384 365 884 884 5731,634 885

28 35 42 49 56 63

Days from first death

 365 884 884 2,034
5731,634 885
31 31 31 72 72 72 134 167 167 226 384 384

28 35 42 49 56 63

Days from first death

ed spread Later versus earlier contain

18,000

16,000
692,846

14,000

Total dealths 12,000

10,000

8,000
301,236
6,000

4,000
130,971

56,943 2,000

34 4,679 10,763 24,757 1 1 2 2 5 5 1313 3131 7272 16

0
63 70 77 84 91 98 105 112 0 7 14 21 28 35 4

eath Days fr
 21 22 23 24 25 26
147 154 161 168 175 182
98 105 112 119 126 133

URLs

-6, to 6.4 or 7.5 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9.pdf
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30119-3/fulltext
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
D-19) and the probable https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
nalysis.

19 Novel Coronavirus https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronaviru

9-nCoV epidemic: https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_control/

2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
39,160,975 90,070,243 207,161,559 476,471,586 1,095,884,648 2,520,534,690
69,284,801 159,355,044 366,516,603 842,988,189 1,938,872,837 4,459,407,527
74,028 170,265 391,610 900,702 2,071,616 4,764,716
130,971 301,236 692,846 1,593,548 3,665,164 8,429,880

navirus controls have been implemented

x x x x x x
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
1,281,644 1,922,466 2,883,699 4,325,549 6,488,324 9,732,486
3,783,379 5,705,845 8,589,544 12,915,093 19,403,417 29,135,903
5,696 8,544 12,816 19,225 28,837 43,255
16,472 25,016 37,832 57,057 85,894 129,149

implemented
x x x x x x
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
 355,527 533,291 799,937 1,199,906 1,799,859 2,699,789
1,061,519 1,594,810 2,394,747 3,594,653 5,394,512 8,094,301
1,580 2,370 3,555 5,333 7,999 11,999
4,688 7,058 10,613 15,946 23,945 35,944

trols, and no controls)

130,971

56,943

24,757

16,472
10,763 10,776
6,979
4,679 4,447 3,108 4,688
2,034 2,759 2,055
5731,634 885 1,353

63 70 77 84 91 98
 2,034
5731,634 885 1,353 2,055

63 70 77 84 91 98

er containment
16,472

10,776

6,979

4,447 4,688

2,759 3,108
2,055
1,634 1,353
884 573 885
3131 7272 134 384
167 226 365

28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98

Days from first death

sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

story?id=69477312

numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov
 130,971

16,472

,688

98
98