Probability

ENGR. JUICY CORDERO -VALDUEZA

Blaise Pascal

-father of modern probability.

Born: 19 June 1623 in Clermont (now Clermont-Ferrand), Auvergne, France
Died: 19 Aug 1662 in Paris, France
In correspondence with Fermat he laid the foundation for the theory of probability. This
correspondence consisted of five letters and occurred in the summer of 1654.
They considered the dice problem, already studied by Cardan, and the problem of points also
considered by Cardan and, around the same time, Pacioli and Tartaglia. The dice problem asks
how many times one must throw a pair of dice before one expects a double six while the
problem of points asks how to divide the stakes if a game of dice is incomplete.
They solved the problem of points for a two player game but did not develop powerful enough
mathematical methods to solve it for three or more players.
Pascal
Probability

1. Important in inferential statistics, a branch of statistics that relies on

sample information to make decisions about a population.
What is inferential statistics?
Division of Statistics
A. Descriptive Statistics
◦ – concerned with gathering the data, classification and presentation of data and the
collection of summarizing values described group activities.

Types of Summarizing Values Most Commonly Used:

1. Measure of Central Tendency or Position or Location
◦ - a single figure which is representative of the general level of magnitudes or values of the
items in a set of data.
◦ 1.a. Mean (Me)
◦ 1.b. Mode (Mo)
◦ 1.c. Median (Md)
Division of Statistics
2. Measure of Variability
◦ - measure which aids the statisticians in making comparisons. It is a measure which
describes how far away from the mean is the score.

2.a. Standard Deviation - is a measure of the distance from the observations in a data
collection to the middle of that collection. It describes how far above or below is the score
from the mean.
2.b. Variance – is the same as the standard deviation except that the square root is not taken.
2.c. Range – is the distance between highest and lowest score in a array of data.
Division of Statistics
B. Inferential Statistics
◦ - deals with the methods used to describe a population by studying a random sample of
that population.
◦ - uses only small portion of the total set of data in order to draw conclusions or judgments
regarding the entire set.

◦ Population - any specified group taken as the subjects of the study or research.
◦ Sample – a portion or subset of a population.
Division of Statistics
Types of Inferential Statistics
1. Parametric Statistics – requires that the sample used in the study should come from a population
with normal distribution. Applied to both interval and ratio-scaled data.
Examples: interval scale (test scores)
ratio scale ( percentage)

t-test, ANOVA, Pearson’s r

2. Nonparametric Statistics – does not require any assumption regarding the population where the
sample is taken.
Examples: Spearman’s Rho – for ordinal data ( rank, educational level…)
Chi-Square – for nominal data ( tel.#, zipcode, SSS #, driver’s license…..)
Probability
2. Used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Terminology
Terminology
A simple event can happen only one way (has only one simple
outcome)

A compound event can happen multiple ways (it's a subset of the

sample space consisting of more than one simple outcome).
Recall also that the sample space will show
you all the outcomes of an experiment.
Consider again the experiment of tossing a coin twice.
The sample space is S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
As you can see, this sample space has 4 outcomes.
What is a simple event for this
experiment?
Since a simple event has only 1 outcome, each of the 4 outcomes is a simple event.
For example, consider the event
‘Head on both tosses’
Head on both tosses = { HH } and { HH } is a simple event.
By the same token, the event
‘The first toss results in head and the second toss results in tails’ or { HT } is also a simple event.
What is a compound event for this
experiment?
However, consider the event
‘ The first toss results in head ‘
The first toss results in head = { HH, HT }
This event is a compound event since there are two outcomes.
By the same token, consider the event
‘ The tosses result in at most 1 tail ‘
The event ‘ The tosses result in at most 1 tail ‘ is the same as ‘ The tosses result in no tail or the
tosses give exactly 1 tail ‘
The tosses results at most 1 tail = { HH, HT, TH }
Since this event has 3 outcomes, it is a compound event.
More examples…..
You can use a tree diagram to determine the sample space of this experiment.

There are six outcomes on the first die 1,2,3,4,5,6 and those outcomes are represented
by six branches of the three starting from the “tree trunk”.

For each of these six outcomes, there are six outcomes, represented by the brown
branches.

By the fundamental counting principle, there are 6 x 6 = 36 outcomes. They are listed on
the next slide.
More Examples……
More Examples……
An experiment is to be performed to study student
preferences in the food line in the cafeteria.
Specifically, the staff wants to analyze the effect of
the student’s gender on the preferred food line
(burger, salad or main entrée).
The sample space consists of the following six possible outcomes.
1. A male choosing the burger line.
2. A female choosing the burger line.
3. A male choosing the salad line.
4. A female choosing the salad line.
5. A male choosing the main entrée line.
6. A female choosing the main entrée line.
The sample space could be represented by using set notation and ordered pairs.
sample space = {(male, burger), (female, burger), (male, salad), (female, salad), (male, main
entree), (female, main entree)}

If we use M to stand for male, F for female, B for burger, S for salad and E for main entrée the
notation could be simplified to
sample space = {MB, FB, MS, FS, ME, FE}
If we look at the lunch line example and use the following sample space description
{MB, FB, MS, FS, ME, FE}
The event that the student selected is male is given by male={MB, MS, ME}
The event that the preferred food line is the burger line is given by burger={MB, FB}
The event that the person selected is a female that prefers the salad line is {FS}.

This is an example of a simple event.

Seatwork #1:
A student has to take one course of physics, one of science and one of mathematics. He may
choose one of 3 physics courses (P1, P2, P3), one of 2 science courses (S1, S2) and one of 2
mathematics courses (M1, M2). In how many ways can this student select the 3 courses he has
to take?
Sample Space
The total number of choices may be calculated as follows:
Let n1 be the number of choices of the physics course, here n1 = 3.
Let n2 be the number of choices of the science course, here n2 = 2.
Let n3 be the number of choices of the mathematics course, here n3 = 2.
It is clear from the tree diagram above that the total number N of choices may be calculated as
follows:

= n1 × n2 × n3
= 3 × 2 × 2 = 12
Seatwork #2
To buy a computer system, a customer can choose one of 4 monitors, one of 2 keyboards, one of
4 computers and one of 3 printers.

Determine the number of possible systems that a customer can choose from.
Seatwork #3
In a certain country telephone numbers have 9 digits. The first two digits are the area code (03)
and are the same within a given area.
The last 7 digits are the local number and cannot begin with 0. How many different telephone
numbers are possible within a given area code in this country?
 Number of choices
Using the counting principle, the total number of possible telephone numbers is given by
N = 1 × 1 × 9 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 × 10 = 9,000,000
Seatwork #4
A student can select one of 6 different mathematics books, one of 3 different chemistry books
and one of 4 different science books.
In how many different ways can a student select a book of mathematics, a book of chemistry
and a book of science?
Seatwork #5
There are 3 different roads from city A to city B and 2 different roads from city B to city C. In how
many ways can someone go from city A to city C passing by city B?
Seatwork 6
A man has 3 different suits, 4 different shirts and 5 different pairs of shoes. In how many
different ways can this man wear a suit, a shirt and a pair of shoes?
Seatwork #7
In a company , ID cards have 5 digit numbers.

a) How many ID cards can be formed if repetition of the digit is allowed?

b) How many ID cards can be formed if repetition of the digit is not allowed?
Seatwork #8
In a certain country, licence plate numbers have 3 letters followed by 4 digits. How many
different licence plate numbers can be formed? (letters and digits may be repeated).
Counting Rules Useful in Probability…..
Examples:
1. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given to a class of 25
graduate students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most one award,
how many possible selections are there?
Solution:
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

25! 25!
25P3 = = = (25)(24)(23) = 13800.
25−3 ! 22!
Examples…
2. A president and a treasure are to be chosen from a student club consisting of 50 people. How
many different choices of officers are possible if:

A. there are no restrictions

Solution:

50!
50P2 = = 2450
50−2 !
Seatwork #1
Seatwork #2
Seatwork #3
Seatwork #4
Seatwork #5
Seatwork #6
Seatwork #7
Seatwork #8
Seatwork #9
Seatwork #10
Seatwork #11
Example……….
Example…
Seatwork #1
Seatwork #2
Seatwork #3
END